Sir John Major’s interview with the Independent on 26 June 2026 to mark ten years since the Brexit vote.
Tag: Brexit
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Sir John Major’s Interview on BBC’s Newsnight – 1 May 2026
The interview with Sir John Major broadcast by BBC Newsnight on 1 May 2026.
Matt Chorley: Sir John Major was born on 29 March 1943 to Gwen, a librarian and part-time dance teacher, and Tom Major-Ball, a former trapeze artist and music hall performer who later ran a successful garden ornaments business. Young John underperformed at school in Brixton, leaving with just three O-Levels. But a chance meeting with his local MP led him into politics. He became a Conservative MP in Margaret Thatcher’s 1979 landslide victory, then rose through the ranks pretty quickly to become first Foreign Secretary and then Chancellor. Within 15 months of taking his first great office of state, he reached the greatest, replacing Margaret Thatcher as Prime Minister in November 1990 at the age of 47. He went on to win the 1992 election with the most votes ever recorded for a British political party before losing to Tony Blair’s New Labour landslide in 1997.
I’m delighted Sir John joins me now. It’s great to see you. Thank you. Can you take us back to that church fete, the turning point, it seems, the moment where you discovered politics?
Sir John Major: Well, I discovered it before that. I read a lot of history and politics always fascinated me. I remember the church fete very well. The vicar was a delightful man. So was his daughter. We were friends. I was at the church fete and the local Labour Member of Parliament, Colonel Lipton, Marcus Lipton, who had been there since 1945, attended every church fete in the constituency. I don’t think church fetes were legitimate unless Marcus was there.
He talked to me and we talked about politics. He must have realised that I naturally moved to the right of centre rather than the left of centre. But he saw I was interested and he kindly offered me some seats in the gallery in order to watch Parliament in session. I did that and I saw a small part of a very boring part of the year really, but not for me. I was thrilled. It was the debate on the Budget in the mid-1950s and I saw on the benches Iain Macleod, Harold Macmillan was there, Rab Butler was there for a brief time. When I walked into that building, it reached out and grabbed me. When I left, I thought, this is where I wish to be, and my mind never moved away from that.
Matt Chorley: It didn’t focus you on your schoolwork, though. You clearly didn’t think, “I need to knuckle down if I want to get into the House of Commons.” In fact, I was looking, you didn’t do all that well at school. You were one of only eight Prime Ministers ever not to go to university, a grammar school boy, not privately educated. Do you think that now we’d call that a great backstory, but did you feel like that held you back in your pursuit of getting into politics?
Sir John Major: Of course it did. Absolutely. And it was very stupid. The background to that is not straightforward. My father was 65 when I was born. When I was 10 or 11 and went to Rutlish, having passed the 11-plus, he was very sick and also nearly blind with cataracts. He had lost all our money. We didn’t have much, but what we had he had lost in a business venture. So we moved from a bungalow in Worcester Park to two rooms, four storeys up, in an old Victorian house in Brixton. That is where we lived.
Matt Chorley: Is it still there?
Sir John Major: It is. It’s still there. It’s hardly changed. We lived in just the two rooms. There was nowhere there to study. They insisted that I stayed at Rutlish, which was at Wimbledon, so I had to travel back and forth from Brixton to Wimbledon every day. I was pretty rebellious at school. I didn’t like it. I wasn’t comfortable there. I felt alienated by life. It was extremely stupid. So I just didn’t work, except at the things that interested me, which were mainly history and English. The result of that was a lamentable record at school and the need to get up at 05.00 each morning after I left school aged 16, studying, taking more O levels and a banking degree and other matters.
Matt Chorley: These days, the House of Commons is very different to the House of Commons that you entered. Fewer trade unionists in the Labour Party, fewer business people in the Conservative Party and so on. A lot has changed. Do you think that has changed for the better?
Sir John Major: No, I don’t. I certainly don’t. If you take both parties, if you look at the Labour Party, and I have no animosity against the Labour Party. I grew up in a Labour area. I didn’t agree with their policies, but I saw decent men trying to do a decent job on Lambeth Council.
I looked at the Labour Party when I got into the House of Commons and there were lots of ordinary, everyday people, people without money, without privilege, working-class people who really knew their constituents. They may not have got degrees in English, but my goodness, they knew how their constituents lived. They cared about that and they represented that in the House of Commons. That doesn’t happen in the Labour Party now. They are much younger, much better educated and, in my judgement, much less close to their constituents than their predecessors were.
You can see it on the Conservative side. Where are the businessmen? Where are the soldiers? Where are the people who would have been a staple part of the party in the 1950s, 60s and 70s? They are very sparse now on the Conservative benches. There has been a change in nature and I think that is partly because of the way in which politics is disregarded by so many people these days. Many of the people who would be a very happy addition to Parliament simply will not contemplate going into politics. I hear that theme again and again and again. There are many reasons for it, which we both know and I think the whole world knows, but it is a loss to Parliament in my view.
Matt Chorley: Would the John Major of when you first went into politics, from your background and experience, consider going into politics now?
Sir John Major: I couldn’t not do so. I am out of politics now and I had no regrets about leaving politics when I was in my early 50s. No regrets whatsoever. But there are moments when I see things happening and I wish I was still there, because I would have a voice to point out things that I had seen being done before and I know they went wrong. Experience and a long memory, an historic memory, in Parliament is very useful. It can stop many mistakes being made. So there are moments when I wish I was back in politics, but they are fleeting moments and they are entirely overridden by the fact I couldn’t take the divorce if I were still in politics.
Matt Chorley: Norma would have something to say?
Sir John Major: Norma would have something to say. And so would my children.
Matt Chorley: Let’s talk about this. You become an MP and most people, when they become an MP, even if they only say it to themselves at night, probably privately harbour the idea that one day they might be called upon to become Prime Minister. But it happens to you in 1990. The Conservatives had been trailing in the polls for months. Geoffrey Howe’s devastating speech to Margaret Thatcher leads to Michael Heseltine’s challenge. You, though, Sir John, miss much of the drama because for some time you had been nursing a painful wisdom tooth and you were under the dentist’s anaesthetic while everyone else was plotting. Yet you wake up, you are coming round from the anaesthetic and the conversation almost immediately turns, with Norma and your daughter Elizabeth, to the prospect of you possibly throwing your hat in the ring. Was it the drugs?
Sir John Major: Well, you may say so. Others may have wished so. No, it wasn’t. The tooth has become a subject of myth over many years, with people saying he didn’t have a tooth problem at all, he was just getting out of the way and plotting, which is entirely absurd. If anyone would care to go to the hospital in Essex, I had the wisdom tooth out under full anaesthetic. It was an abscess under a wisdom tooth that I had been nursing for a couple of months. I had a hospital appointment. I wasn’t going to cancel it. I had suffered from that enough. I didn’t anticipate, frankly, the degree of drama with Michael’s challenge to Margaret.
But when Margaret decided she wasn’t going to stand, I was approached by a lot of people to see whether I would stand. I hadn’t been contemplating it. I can honestly say that. My daughter was coming up to A levels, my son to O levels. I had just got the job I really wanted in politics, which was Chancellor. I can honestly say, hand on heart, that I was not contemplating being Prime Minister.
But I was approached by a number of people. I then learned that some people had been canvassing on my behalf. I said to my parliamentary private secretary, “Look, I don’t know how many votes. I don’t want to humiliate myself by getting a few votes.” He was a very good listener, one of those rare politicians who listens rather than talks, and he said, “Well, I think I can guarantee you 150 votes if you stand. Dare you say no to that?” I couldn’t really.
I remembered the old Iain Macleod maxim. It was Macleod as much as any individual politician who took me into politics. He was a magnificent orator, not just in how he spoke but what he said. He once said, “If the ball comes out of the ruck, you grab it. It may never come out again.” That was pretty much how I felt. I was confident that I wasn’t going to be humiliated, so I decided I would stand.
Matt Chorley: You write in your memoirs that for large parts of that period, actually right up until almost the moment you won, you were stuffed with painkillers. It was an extraordinary moment, with you dealing with this pain in your mouth while each day getting closer to becoming Prime Minister.
Sir John Major: Yes. The campaign only lasted a week and it was the best-natured campaign I think I have seen in all my years in politics, between Michael Heseltine, Douglas Hurd and myself. We all knew one another extremely well. I was particularly close to Douglas Hurd. I didn’t know Michael quite so well. It only lasted a week.
As the campaign began, the painkillers were winning over the pain quite comfortably, so we sailed through the week’s campaigning. It wasn’t a difficult week of campaigning because we weren’t in the business of slagging off one another. We had worked together in the past, we would work together in the future. Whatever had happened, the three of us would have been together in the Cabinet. So it was a very good-natured campaign and it went quickly.
Matt Chorley: Michael Heseltine has, of course, concluded that he who wields the knife doesn’t wear the crown. If you are the person who leaps first, you end up not getting the top job. Do you think he is right about that? Are there lessons for today?
Sir John Major: I’m not entirely sure about that. Lloyd George might argue to the contrary, and so might others. I think it can be a disadvantage. It depends on the nature of the relationship between the departing Prime Minister and the wielder of the knife.
Matt Chorley: Tell me about that moment when you become Prime Minister. You go to the Palace. You had obviously been into Number 10 before, but it is very different going as a minister than it is as Prime Minister. What is going through your mind during the drive?
Sir John Major: Several things really. Firstly, I wondered how this ceremony goes. Does kissing hands mean literally? It doesn’t. It means figuratively. What exactly are we going to talk about? So I was thinking about the Queen and how that would work out.
A different compartment of my mind was thinking about what I was going to say when I got back to the doorstep. That was certainly occupying my mind. Two other things were occupying my mind. A new Prime Minister within two years of an election: we were going to have to have some Cabinet changes, and that was going to be awkward. I had only been in a Cabinet for three years. I was younger than most of the Cabinet. I had been there less time than most of the Cabinet. I was going to have to say to very senior people who had been there much longer than me that it was time to go and to bring some new blood into the Cabinet. Nobody likes destroying someone’s career. Only sadists like that.
Beyond that, I was very conscious of the problems we faced. You touched on some of them. The party was deeply split on the European Union, deeply. I felt as though I was standing on either side of a widening chasm. The poll tax was still around and had to be destroyed. Michael Heseltine had to come back into the Cabinet. Those last two points were bound inevitably to upset Margaret Thatcher: her poll tax, I was going to have to abolish it; and her assassin, as she saw Michael, was going to have to come into the Cabinet. So one could see immediately that there were going to be problems that lay ahead. It was only a short ride from Downing Street to Buckingham Palace, but I remember very plainly, almost as though different components of the mind were thinking of these things.
Matt Chorley: It is often said that being Prime Minister is a lonely job because so few people have been there and done it. When you were there, still alive were former Prime Ministers Margaret Thatcher, Jim Callaghan, Harold Wilson, Ted Heath and Alec Douglas-Home. Were you able to reach out? Clearly the relationship with Margaret was difficult because of the circumstances of you becoming Prime Minister. Is there a gang of former Prime Ministers who all talk to each other?
Sir John Major: I had no difficulty with the other Prime Ministers at all. The one who from time to time was most helpful was Jim Callaghan, who had a similar background to me and understood the difficulties. He understood the restraints in 1990s society, and from time to time he was very helpful. Harold Wilson by then was clearly ill, and when I talked to him we met in the corridors and discussed Huddersfield Town Football Club, of which Harold was a tremendous supporter.
So I had no difficulties there. When I met Margaret, there was never any difficulty. The first time I met her was at a by-election in 1978 in Berwick and East Lothian, which we lost. I was very impressed, because it was thought we were going to win the by-election. She had been there for a morning and came in and talked to me just after lunch, and she knew we were going to lose it. Her sensitive political antennae had grasped the fact that it wasn’t right, and I was hugely impressed by that.
I had a very good relationship with her. We had a furious fight when I was a young whip. We disagreed severely about something and everyone thought my career was over. The next day she came and sat next to me on the bench and said, “Well, we’d better regroup and discuss these matters again.” Three weeks later she gave me a job in government. I remember her saying to me when she gave it to me, “It’s the job I started with. If you learn about social security, you’ll be better equipped than most of the parliamentary party for the future.”
Matt Chorley: You mentioned that when you became Prime Minister, you knew there was a general election certainly within two years. In that election in 1992, there was an expectation that Labour were going to win it under Neil Kinnock.
Sir John Major: More than an expectation. It was almost written into the stars.
Matt Chorley: What was it for you? There has been endless discussion: was it the Sheffield rally, was it the soapbox? What was it for you?
Sir John Major: I never quite agreed with the way the opinion polls were going all the way through the campaign. It may simply have been my naivety, but everywhere I went I got a very large and warm welcome. Everywhere. There was no hostility. I was surprised about that. We had been in power for 11 years and people were plainly tired of the problems over the poll tax and Europe, and yet there was an immensely warm reception everywhere I went.
So I had this blind faith that, having come from where I did to where I was, it wasn’t going to end that quickly. I thought throughout the campaign that we would win. We had a very large lead in votes, you may recall. It was only a slender lead of 21 in seats, but we had a seven per cent lead in votes. We should have had a majority of 70 or so if the votes had been distributed, but of course they weren’t.
Matt Chorley: The record for any party in a general election still stands. Given the way our politics is going, with more and more parties, do you think that record will ever be broken?
Sir John Major: Ever is a long time. But I don’t think it is going to be broken in the near future, because there is going to be a greater dispersal of votes, which raises a whole series of other questions.
Matt Chorley: Soon after that 1992 election you discussed with Chris Patten the idea that you had stretched the elastic and defied expectations. You then spend the next five years assuming that you wouldn’t win in 1997. I wondered whether it would be better for governments if they behaved like they weren’t going to win and did what they thought was right by the country, rather than chasing percentage points in the polls.
Sir John Major: There was a bit of that. It sounds rather gallant to say you proceed entirely on that basis. Of course we wanted to win the election. But we managed to find a way of losing it quite comprehensively, and we had a lot of assistance from my colleagues in doing so.
For Europe, there was a changing of the guard in 1992. The elderly members who had been in the war or soon after and in the services were very pro-European in the Conservative Party because they never wanted to see a European war again. A lot of them retired in 1992 and were replaced by much younger and more recently baked Conservatives who had a much more Eurosceptic view. So the huge majority for Europe in the Conservative Party that existed in 1991 had gone in 1992. We faced a completely different parliamentary party. Although we had a majority of 21 nominally, on European matters we barely had a majority at all. Very soon, with by-elections, that bare majority was whittled away.
Matt Chorley: Was it then, in 1992, that the seeds of Brexit were sown in that generational shift in the Conservative Party?
Sir John Major: They were there before. Going right back to Enoch Powell and others, there were people who were, let me say, unenthusiastic, which would be a kind way of putting it, about Europe. But it was in the 1990s that the numbers began to grow. They began to grow because of opposition to the Maastricht Treaty, and that was very odd. You may say, why is it odd? Because the Maastricht Treaty did all sorts of extraordinary things, but every one of those things was actually preordained in the 1986 Single European Act. We had signed up to a whole range of things that were in the Maastricht Treaty, and the very people who had signed up to that treaty now opposed it, and opposed it violently. The new members followed them, and they became more and more of a thorn in the side.
Matt Chorley: In 1993, you were caught on camera calling some of your Eurosceptic Cabinet ministers “bastards”. Do you have any regrets about that?
Sir John Major: I remember that very well. It was a BBC feed that was left on when I was speaking privately to a single person, and the feed crept under the door and they chose to use it. Of course I shouldn’t have said that. My only excuse is that it was true.
Matt Chorley: As the pressure built over time and you faced more criticism, in 1995 you pushed what many thought was the nuclear button and challenged your opponents to put up or shut up. One of our listeners, Mike, got in touch and said, “My question to John Major would be: what would you do if you were in Keir Starmer’s shoes, assuming local elections are bad as well? Would you advise doing what you did, put up or shut up, or is this a case of different party, different circumstances, different times?”
Sir John Major: I think the circumstances are very different and the times are very different. Enough has been said by enough people about that particular issue. I don’t really wish to add to it.
Matt Chorley: Did you think you would win when you did that back in the 1990s?
Sir John Major: I wasn’t sure. I was prepared for the fact that I might have to resign. I didn’t think I was going to be defeated in the ballot, but I had put in a sealed envelope the number of votes I had to have in order, in my mind, to credibly stay. We exceeded that number by three votes. So it was very close. Four votes less and I would have resigned.
Matt Chorley: When you weren’t dealing with your own MPs, you were dealing with Tony Blair in the latter stages across the despatch box. Prime Minister’s Questions is the part of politics that most people see on the news, and he was pretty remorseless to you during PMQs. “I lead my party. He follows his.” Calling it “weak, weak, weak”. Did any part of you enjoy Prime Minister’s Questions?
Sir John Major: It was a very good line. I don’t know who wrote it for Tony, but it was extremely good. If I were in his position, I might have done exactly the same thing, because I was in a position where, whatever I did, half the party would disagree with it. I was trying to bring the party together. My fear from the moment I became Prime Minister was that the European issue could break the Conservative Party apart, as free trade had done in the past. That was very inhibiting as to what you could do, and it provided Tony with that opening.
Matt Chorley: You also faced a lot of hostility from the media during that period.
Sir John Major: Surely not.
Matt Chorley: It is said, and I have interviewed people who worked with you at the time, that there was a feeling among some that you focused too much on the media, that you read the papers too closely. With the benefit of hindsight, do you think they were right?
Sir John Major: Possibly. But it’s difficult to know what you’re facing unless you hear about it and read about it. It is very easy to say. I seem to recall it was Franklin Roosevelt who read 18 newspapers a day, something of that sort. Yes, I suppose you could say I wasted too much time reading things that were unnecessary, but you needed to be prepared. If you are suddenly asked a question and you don’t know why the question has come, you could be in a very difficult situation.
Senior politicians face that today with social media. They may be going around the country, they’ll be stopped, they’ll be asked a question about an event that has happened on the other side of the world, and they don’t know of the event. Sometimes they are foolish enough to commit themselves and get themselves into a great deal of difficulty.
Matt Chorley: I was thinking about the way that everything has sped up, rolling news and then social media. Thinking of a drama like Black Wednesday, do you think you could have survived Black Wednesday in a world of social media, with the sort of frenzy that people whip themselves up into?
Sir John Major: It could hardly have been worse if social media had been there. There is a great deal behind that. Many of the myths in it still survive, but it was extremely difficult. It lingered a long time and it marked us.
There were two things about Black Wednesday really. Firstly, when we were forced out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism after a market turmoil that began in northern Europe, not with us, and injudicious remarks by the governor of the Bundesbank led them to concentrate on sterling, which was very unhelpful indeed.
When we were forced out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism, I was already in discussion with the policy unit about how we could leave it, because its purpose had been to bring down inflation, and it had done that. Many people hated the ERM because they thought it was a stepping stone to the euro and that we were going to join the single currency. That was never going to happen while I was there. I wasn’t going to join the single currency. We weren’t ready for it. Parliament wouldn’t have accepted it and I didn’t like it anyway.
We went into the Exchange Rate Mechanism because we had failed to get inflation down with every other policy. We and our predecessors, in Margaret’s time, in Ted’s time, in Jim Callaghan’s time, in Harold Wilson’s time, had seen inflation come back again and again and destroy parties. I was determined that we would stick with the ERM until we had beaten inflation. And we did. We enjoyed the benefit of that right up to about 2010. So the incoming Labour government inherited a low-inflationary position and a very good economy in 1997.
But because we had fallen out of the ERM, that masked the changes in the economy and the changes in interest rates. We got none of the credit a government would normally have got for that simply because we were thought to have been incompetent because we were forced out of the ERM.
Matt Chorley: So it was a political impact rather than an economic catastrophe?
Sir John Major: It was a political catastrophe, but it wasn’t an economic catastrophe. The economy could then sustain leaving the ERM. The difficulty was how to get out without the markets thinking you were weakening the anti-inflationary policy. That was the difficulty that we didn’t solve. So when we were thrown out, it was catastrophic politically, but it had done its job.
I felt so strongly about inflation, and I will put it in this personal way because it is how I felt. When we were living in those two rooms, there was barely a week when the money did not run out before the week. I saw my mother go downstairs and borrow money to see us through the week, then desperately try and find some way to pay it back, then repeat the exercise week after week after week. I knew what that was like, and I knew that was what inflation did not just to my family but to families all over the country. I hated inflation with a passion, and I would rather have been forced out of government and out of politics than have given up on the anti-inflationary programme. That was the ERM.
The other point I would make about it is that with all my critics, I remember even the Daily Telegraph had banner headlines saying “At last we’re going to have some economic discipline” on the day I went in. It is amazing how successes have many fathers and failures are orphans.
Matt Chorley: Can I ask you about Spitting Image? Did you watch Spitting Image? We had various questions sent in from people asking about you being portrayed as the grey man of politics, despite having the background you came from, winning a general election and beating older politicians.
Sir John Major: Politics is a rough old trade. That was originally a joke across the tea room by a friend of mine when my hair started to go grey when I was about 48. That is where it came from. It was a very useful way to portray something quite different and it was used mercilessly, because politics is sometimes a rather fierce trade. But you know that when you go into it. There’s no point crying over it.
Matt Chorley: Did you watch it at the time?
Sir John Major: I stopped watching it when I saw the portrayals of Norman Tebbit and Margaret Thatcher, which I thought were downright crude. So I did watch it occasionally, but when I began to feature in it in an indelicate way, I thought the same people who told me I ought not to read the newspapers now said, “Why didn’t you watch Spitting Image?”
Matt Chorley: Do you watch any political TV shows? The Thick of It, Yes Minister, or was it all a bit too much like work?
Sir John Major: The only one I watched was Yes Minister, which I thought was pure genius. It got so close to a parody of reality. I didn’t think The Thick of It quite achieved that. I didn’t watch that very much.
Matt Chorley: Can I ask you about the job of being Prime Minister and how you approached it? Since you were there, we have had seven or eight Prime Ministers. Is it getting harder?
Sir John Major: In some ways, yes. It is certainly getting harder because of the external pressure of social media. That is undoubtedly getting harder. On the other hand, newspapers matter less than they did politically. They are not as powerful as they were in the 70s, 80s and 90s.
The problems are wider today, and there seems to be a shorter time frame in which people feel they can deal with problems and push them aside. Most of the big problems we have in this country at the moment are long-term problems. How are we going to cope with an ever-increasing number of elderly people who will live longer and need more medicine and more expensive medicine? How are we going to prepare for that? How are we going to prepare for people having their own pensions when the Government keeps producing measures that will reduce the private pensions that people actually earn and save for in their own lifetime? They are forcing more people into state assistance when they retire by the policies they are following now. That is not only wrong, it is plain stupid.
Then there are other things like climate change. Some people deny climate change. I don’t know what planet they are living on. When they say, “I don’t believe in climate change”, it’s a cop-out. It means they needn’t put the money towards the policy and they can spend it on something else that is more politically popular. But I only have to look at my own garden. The daffodils come up six weeks earlier. The climate is different. The ice caps are not in my garden, by the way, but the ice caps are melting and changing the positions inside the oceans. There are more hurricanes. There are much more extreme weather events. The climate is changing.
Those people who say, “Let’s push it back a bit. Let’s not do anything. Let’s do it a little more slowly so we can spend a little money on something else” are saying to my children, your children and their grandchildren, “Tough luck, chaps. We’re not only leaving you a difficult economy with too many old people that you can’t afford to care for. We’re going to leave you with climate change that we should have put right for you and didn’t.”
The first role of any government, in my view, is to leave something better for the next generation than your generation inherited. This is not done now. The youngsters of today are inheriting a more difficult world and a less favourable world than my generation, and their successors may be in exactly the same position unless we now begin to take seriously those very long-term problems.
I’m sorry that’s a long, tedious answer, but I feel very strongly that it demeans politics. You are not there as a politician as if it is a game show. You are not there just to provide fodder for the media and project your own career. You are there to deal with problems that ordinary people elect you to deal with. We are a representative democracy. We send representatives to Parliament to make sure our lives are better. If you ignore and deny those issues, our lives will not get better and those Parliaments will have failed.
Matt Chorley: Some of those issues you are talking about, changes to pensions and so on, are unfolding under the Labour Government. But some of the things, climate change and net zero, those are ideas which are taking hold in the Conservative Party as well.
Sir John Major: I am not making a point against any one government. It has been going on for quite a long time. Let me put it to you in this one question. You know politics better than most people, I would guess. When did you last hear a senior politician deliver a detailed lecture about the problems we face and what we must do to make those problems better over the next 30 years? Can you remember such a speech?
Matt Chorley: Not off the top of my head.
Sir John Major: No, neither can I. Don’t you think the people out there would actually like to hear someone standing up and saying: “We’ve got these things wrong. We’ve really screwed up. We’ve really got to take this particular policy more seriously. We cannot cope with population growth and the growth in the length of years people live, and the more expensive medical treatments. We cannot cope with it unless we begin to take action on those things. At this moment, we cannot delay on that.”
Matt Chorley: So what is the problem? Is it the quality of the politicians? Is it the quality of MPs in Parliament who get restless too quickly? Is it partly our fault, the electorate’s fault, that we are impatient and we want quick and easy answers to big complicated problems?
Sir John Major: I’m afraid we do. That is because nobody is telling us we can’t have that. Instead of saying, “These are the difficulties we’ve got to face and you can’t have that,” nobody is doing that. Too many people listen to focus groups and parody the focus groups in their policies, which naturally means more expenditure, and that inevitably, in the short term or the longer term, means either more debt or higher taxes. Governments have lost the capacity, it seems, to say no. Part of the job of politics is to say no.
Matt Chorley: I suppose the counterargument is that if you say no, you lose elections and you are not in a position of power any more.
Sir John Major: I’m not entirely sure that is the case. I would guess there are millions of people out there who would be only too pleased to hear a politician stand up and set out absolutely clearly, honestly and unmistakably the depth of the problems we face and the sort of measures we are going to have to take in order to protect ourselves.
They say, “You can’t do that. You’ll lose votes.” Really? When you are setting out a policy that will ease the lives of their children and grandchildren? Are we so self-centred that we can’t take in that message? I don’t believe it.
Matt Chorley: I wonder, we have touched a bit on social media, but the role of social media in changing the way people consume the news, instead of watching the six o’clock news or reading a newspaper which might have a broad range of issues and voices. If you are just watching people you agree with, that reinforces the idea that this person has all the answers.
Sir John Major: Yes. I’m afraid there has been a lot of that over a long time, where people mix with other people who have the same views and read newspapers that echo their views, or indeed shape their views. This is happening in a much bigger way in America, I may say, but it is certainly happening here as well. It is very dangerous. You can’t debate and change the world unless you meet the people with whom you disagree and try to persuade them. If, instead of that, you avoid the people you disagree with and form your own clique with your own views, then nothing is going to change in terms of really addressing the problems that lie before us.
Matt Chorley: You have talked in the past about believing in a rough and ready decency. Do you think we see enough of that in our politics today?
Sir John Major: Sometimes you do.
Matt Chorley: Is it more rough than it is decent?
Sir John Major: There are a lot of very decent people in politics. I don’t know the present Parliament as well as earlier Parliaments. I’m not a member of the present Parliament, but I know a number of MPs from the Conservative Party and Labour Party, not so much the Liberal Democrats these days. There are lots of them who have very decent instincts. The curious thing is that many of their instincts as to what they would like to achieve are the same. What they differ about is how to achieve it.
The economy is a practical example. The Conservative Party would say we have to deal with it with much more free enterprise and much less regulation. Many people in the Labour Party would also want a much better economy but would go a completely different way: more state direction. Everyone can have their own view on that. But the interesting thing is that the objectives are the same.
The very nature of the House of Commons, with His Majesty’s Opposition being two sword lengths apart from His Majesty’s Government, actually promotes the idea that the opposition must oppose everything. I’m not sure that I agree with that. I think the opposition has a duty to point out shortcomings. But when the objectives are the same, I think it would be better if people acknowledged similar objectives and began more practically to suggest mutual ways of meeting those objectives.
The classic example I would give you is that I do not think we will get a proper concordat on health, probably the single most important issue to many people, until the main parties agree the broad parameters of it, and that includes funding. I think that is something they ought to be looking at. We can’t have one party coming into government, setting out a series of policies, making changes, and the other party denying them, then, because they have denounced them, coming in and feeling they have to change them. That is poor politics.
Matt Chorley: And yet, when we look at how politics has unfolded over the last few years, promises do not get very long, whether it is their own MPs or the media.
Sir John Major: Maybe these long-term problems would. In any event, the fate of individual politicians doesn’t really matter as much as the development of the right policy. It isn’t a good idea to keep changing Prime Ministers. I think there is also a limit. If I give you a term of years, it will undoubtedly cause trouble, but I think it is an idea to have a limited number of years. The Americans have two terms of a president and then stop.
Matt Chorley: We can’t get to two years at the moment before speculation.
Sir John Major: I know, but this is a phase we are going through. It is partly a function of the many, many difficulties that we face at the moment.
Matt Chorley: Is the frustration that people don’t believe those problems show signs of being solved?
Sir John Major: The best aphrodisiac in politics is hope. If people can see a change, there is a change in atmosphere. It doesn’t even have to be politics. If we win the Ashes or the World Cup, there is a total change in atmosphere in the country. If you see interest rates going down rather than up, there is a total change in people’s capacity to invest and their belief in what is going to happen in the future. The moment the economy turns, politics will turn too.
Matt Chorley: It sounds as if, if Keir picked up the phone to you, I don’t know if he ever does, your advice would be the old Churchillian phrase, “Keep buggering on.”
Sir John Major: I’m not going to offer advice. I have been in politics a long time and I have made many mistakes. One mistake I’m not going to make is advising a Labour Prime Minister in public. And no, I have not been asked to advise a Labour Prime Minister in private either.
Matt Chorley: You talked about Her Majesty’s Opposition. Obviously now it is His Majesty’s Opposition. When you were there it was the Queen. Tell me about the weekly audience. I have heard other Prime Ministers talk about how it is the one meeting you go into where the other person doesn’t want your job. How important was it for you, having that regular audience?
Sir John Major: It was very important. I don’t mean for me. I think the Prime Minister meeting the monarch weekly is very important for the monarch too. I have no intention of telling you the sort of things we discussed. I will tell you it wasn’t all politics by any means. The only others present at those meetings ever were the corgis. If someone had bugged the corgis, it would have been quite a revelation.
Matt Chorley: Are you a fan of dogs?
Sir John Major: Oh yes.
Matt Chorley: You got on with the corgis?
Sir John Major: Yes, the corgis were fine. We even have an office therapy dog.
Matt Chorley: Do you?
Sir John Major: No, it’s not my dog. It’s my chief of staff’s dog.
Matt Chorley: Oh, great. What sort of dog is it?
Sir John Major: I’m not going to go into the dog. I don’t want the dog to become famous.
Matt Chorley: When you were Prime Minister, it was quite a turbulent time for the royals. We have since had Cabinet papers released from when the Queen went through her annus horribilis. Did you feel that the royals were really under pressure at that moment? And did you feel that you helped turn things around?
Sir John Major: I have no intention of commenting on that, except to say I did share an annus horribilis with the Queen at the same time, so we had plenty to talk about.
Matt Chorley: You talked about how you had a small majority after 1992 and obviously that made your life hard. Is there a sweet spot for the size of a majority? Is there a point where having a massive majority is also a problem?
Sir John Major: Something between 40 and 50 is the sweet spot. One of the problems the Labour Party has at the moment is that they have such a big majority. A large number of people know in their hearts that they are a one-term Member of Parliament for that particular constituency. Unless they defy political gravity, they will lose at the next election. That will encourage many of them not to take difficult decisions, but to cry out against difficult decisions so they can be seen to be defending their constituents against something that may be necessary but is unpopular. That makes any government’s job much harder.
Matt Chorley: I just want to end on a couple of reflections. Any regrets? Your biggest regret from your time as Prime Minister?
Sir John Major: Have you an hour or two? There were lots. I won’t say it is the biggest, but a big regret I have is that when I negotiated the Maastricht Treaty, it was hugely well received in Parliament. We didn’t put the Bill for the Maastricht Treaty through Parliament before the 1992 election because it had such support. There were five or six hundred Members of Parliament voting for it. We didn’t put it through. We put through other measures that were more immediately relevant, and so we left the Maastricht Treaty until after the 1992 election.
As I explained earlier, after the 1992 election, the complexion of the Tory Party had changed remarkably. Without that, we would not have had all the troubles we had with the Maastricht Treaty, which had a great deal to do with the eternal damnation of the Conservative Government at the time. So that is a regret. I could have got it through.
Matt Chorley: And that might have changed what followed afterwards.
Sir John Major: Yes. There wouldn’t have been a Bill that they could spend a whole year attacking.
Matt Chorley: On the positive side, George, who is a listener, got in touch and said, “Does Sir John feel he did not get enough credit for the National Lottery, lottery-funded elite sports and Team GB’s success at the Olympics? Please thank him from me.”
Sir John Major: I’m very pleased it has done so well. I’ll tell you how I came about doing it. I was Chief Secretary to the Treasury in 1987 to 1989, and the Chief Secretary negotiated public expenditure with every individual minister. So he had, although he was a junior member of the Cabinet, more power than most members because he could redirect money.
I noticed in doing that that the things the public most cared about, sport and the arts, got petty cash from the Government. I could never see a circumstance in which you could take money away from health or education or defence or social security in order to enhance leisure. Governments have never been big on leisure, if you go back as far in history as you like. So I was looking for some external way of funding something that the public really loved, sport and the arts. The answer was the lottery.
Since then, I don’t know if you know how much it has given apart from prizes. How much do you think it has delivered to the public in good causes?
Matt Chorley: In good causes? It must be billions.
Sir John Major: Have a rough guess.
Matt Chorley: Three billion?
Sir John Major: £50 billion. And that was 18 months ago, so it will be £51 billion, rising to £52 billion now. You can go to almost every village in the country and you’ll find something badged with National Lottery money. If you see that badge, you think, “I did that.” Well, it wasn’t only me. Lots of other people were there. One takes personal blame and one takes personal credit, but neither of those things is fully justified. You shouldn’t entirely get the blame or entirely receive the credit. But I am very pleased it went well.
Matt Chorley: A final thought, then, going back to where we began. The young 13-year-old John not working that hard at school, difficulty at home, parents distracted by trying to make ends meet. If that young John now were to come across our conversation and had an interest in politics, what would you say to him?
Sir John Major: I would say to young people, we need you in politics. If all the talent in this country concentrates on “How can I earn more money?” and “How can I avoid public service like the plague because I don’t like the idea of it?”, then we are in deep doo-dah.
We do need people to go into politics and we need our best people to go into politics. That may mean some changes in the way in which Parliament works. It will certainly require a change in attitude where public service, whether it is elected public service in the House of Commons, appointed public service in the Civil Service or any of the government bodies, particularly local government, is attractive. We need that sort of career to be attractive and to be socially attractive as well as financially attractive. I am not suggesting one is more important than the other. We need both. When you have respect for those, I think we will be getting back into a much more healthy position. It is very silly to argue and denigrate public service. People simply shouldn’t do it.
Sir John Major, it has been fascinating to talk to you. Thank you for your time.
Sir John Major: My pleasure. Thank you.
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Sir John Major’s Speech at Maurice Fraser Lecture – 18 November 2025
The speech made by Sir John Major on 18 November at the Maurice Fraser Lecture held at the LSE European Institute on 18 November 2025.
BRITAIN IN A CHANGING WORLD
Thank you for that very kind introduction ‒ and for the invitation to deliver the Maurice Fraser Lecture.
Maurice was a Special Adviser at the Foreign Office during my brief tenure as Foreign Secretary in 1989 – between the much longer tenures of two great public servants ‒ my predecessor, Geoffrey Howe, and my successor, Douglas Hurd.
He was to work with all three of us – for a total of six years from 1989 to 1995 ‒ making him, or so I was told, the longest-serving Special Adviser in the recent history of the Foreign Office. He was that near-mythical creature: a round peg in a round hole. Few – if any – Special Advisers have been awarded the Legion of Honour by France.
He had a formidable knowledge of world affairs, a tireless enthusiasm, a wicked sense of humour – and a total commitment to his country.
It was for that – and so many other reasons – that I asked him to join me at No10. But Maurice’s allegiance to the Foreign Office was too great to tempt him away from it.
Maurice studied at this university, and it was where he chose to return to share his experience after he left Whitehall ‒ first as a Lecturer, then as a Fellow and finally as a Professor. In many ways, the LSE was his spiritual home.
So it is a great pleasure to be here at the European Institute with his family, friends and former colleagues, to celebrate his remarkable – but too short – life through this Annual Lecture.
* * * * *
This evening, I wish to look at Britain’s future role in our changing world.
That world has undergone many changes over the last fifty years and – whilst a large number of those changes are welcome – others are not.
Globalisation has retreated. Free trade has given ground to Protection. Tariff barriers have risen. Theft of intellectual property has become more blatant.
The stability of the rules-based post-war system is crumbling. No country, no organisation, no Leader has stepped forward to seek a new consensus – to repair what is damaged, and replace what is lost.
Adherence to the written and unwritten rules of international conduct has fallen away. The moral principles of politics are losing out to transactional arrangements.
As power shifts, and alliances are re-arranged, much that we once took for granted is no longer certain. Current American policy has even upset calculations once believed to be settled about our future security and economic wellbeing.
Our world today is unsettled, grumpy, fractious, changing in character as economic hardship bites, populism increases, and America and her allies grow apart. For nearly two decades, democracy has been retreating as autocracy rises.
Basic expectations have been broken.
In the post-war years, it was the experience of most that improvements in our lifestyle had either been delivered – or were on the horizon.
Downturns came, of course, but these were overcome and better years followed.
Slowly, if irregularly, democracy offered hope – even to those at the back of every queue. Nations in the democratic West came to believe this improvement was an unbreakable trend: it wasn’t.
Since the financial crisis of 2007, too many people have seen little or no improvement in their living standards. Taxes have risen, Pay packets buy less. National and personal debt has soared – and hope has become anxiety. All this has added to the disillusion with democracy.
There is now a significant war in Europe, for which the outcome is uncertain – and the aftermath even more so.
The language of politics has changed. It is harsher, more aggressive, more focused on the battles of politics than the welfare of nations.
A form of populism has taken root that builds its support by condemning others: its target could be migrants, or minority religions, or people of another race – or any vulnerable group.
It seems that if anyone is “different” and can be scapegoated – then they are fair game. The late Chief Rabbi, Jonathan Sacks, noted that “Antisemitism is the best warning sign of a wider threat to a free and tolerant society”.
I agree with that: venom directed at one source will be directed at others too.
This mode of attack is not restricted to individuals or groups. Populists use it against all authority and so-called “elites”.
“Elites” are treated as if they were “the enemy within”, and Governments as if their shortcomings were the root of all ills.
Even the Judiciary is attacked, as if it were a subversive body, seeking to undermine the State. No-one should be complacent about this. If the Law loses its authority, the bully walks tall – and the lawless walk free.
The objective of the populist is as old as time: if someone else is in the dock of public opinion, those who denounce them must surely be on the side of the majority. The outcome of all this is to set citizen against citizen.
Such behaviour debases all who practice it. It is ugly, divisive, and racist – and daily on display.
RUSSIA
In the midst of our unsettled world, President Putin has turned Nation against Nation. The invasion of Ukraine had no credible or justifiable cause.
Across Europe – and within his own country – Putin’s “3 Day War” is now over 3 years’ old. So far, 400,000 Russians and Ukrainians have been killed – and many more are suffering from life-changing injuries.
Only one man is responsible for this slaughter.
The innocent civilians, who have died under bombs and drones, are considered by Putin apologists to be simply “collateral damage”. They are not. They are victims of mass murder and, when the fighting is done, this should not be forgotten.
There is a price to pay for mass murder and, if justice has any meaning, Putin will be brought face to face with it.
It is vital for future peace in Europe that Putin does not gain from his War Crimes – either on the battlefield or in an enforced deal.
Putin claims all of Donetsk, knowing Ukraine cannot cede it to him. And President Zelensky must not be pressured to do so in return for promises that Putin is unlikely to keep.
Western support for Ukraine has suffered from not being full-hearted. The allies, generally, have provided enough for Ukraine to fight on and keep Russia at bay – but not enough for Ukraine to drive Russia back and end the conflict.
There are three ways in which this war can develop.
It can continue indefinitely – in more or less a stalemate – if the democratic West holds back on increased support for Ukraine.
But – if Russia gains the upper hand because Western support has dropped – then a compromise deal may be forced upon Ukraine.
That would be a shameful outcome, and one all of Europe – and beyond – would come to regret.
Putin would claim a victory, and be likely to re-group and test Western resolve again: a bad outcome could be the preliminary to another war on a future date and a wider terrain.
The third option is that Western support increases, Ukraine advances, and Russia retreats.
If Putin loses, or is forced to withdraw, he loses face. Conceivably, he may even fall from power. If so, we cannot know if a successor will be more tractable – but it would be surprising if he were not more cautious.
America and Europe must weigh these alternatives. Only one is likely to ensure peace. They should take it.
One final point: this conflict is not against the Russian people: it is against Putin and his regime.
Putin has no scruples about creating chaos in other countries. We should have none in telling his people how he deceives them ‒ and loots their assets.
The prize of his departure would be the much safer and more stable Europe that Western democracy longs to have.
CHINA
Russia and China are allies against democracy, and friends only when it is mutually convenient. There is no doubt that China has usurped the influence of the former Soviet Union and is the dominant state.
Today, there seems to be no limit to Xi Jinping’s power or tenure of office. He is supreme, and building up a more assertive China both economically and militarily ‒ especially in and around the South China Sea. He is very much aware that China is America’s only Superpower rival.
China now boasts the world’s largest Navy, with more warships and submarines than America ‒ and she continues to build them.
In the late 16th Century, China was the pre-eminent global power. China has not forgotten this ‒ and nor should the world.
President Xi is consolidating Chinese influence with diplomacy. China offers development finance through loans and grants to nations across the globe.
Xi is presenting China as a champion of multilateralism ‒ in sharp contrast to President Trump’s arbitrary increase in tariffs on imports from friends and allies that has caused a great deal of anguish.
It seems an upside-down world, in which America offends her allies, while China embraces them.
This “embracing” was very much the visual from the recent Shanghai Co-operation Organisation, hosted by China, and attended by India, Turkey and Egypt ‒ all of whom have been more generally considered as allies of the United States.
A wise America would gather them close, not push them away. A friendship broken can be hard to regain.
China is a strong opponent of liberal democracy, believing it to be inefficient and a potential risk to her authoritarian ways.
Nonetheless, we must work with China, but set parameters to what we will accept. We should not overlook her shortcomings: her treatment of the Uighur Muslims; her failure to honour promises over Hong Kong; her threats to Taiwan; her theft of Western technology.
China will resent criticism, but may respect it. She will scorn weakness – and we should remember it is weakness that encourages over-reach.
Nor should we be gullible. China is a great power, but can be chillingly repressive. Her philosophy is not inhibited by democratic instincts, or individual human rights. If China believes actions are set against the interests of the State – she will crush them.
As China says ‒ “We believe no comments challenging national sovereignty and social stability fall within the scope of freedom of expression.”. That restriction is the very antithesis of democracy.
It is a sentiment we should not ignore.
BREXIT
In an act of collective folly, the UK voted to leave the EU. Across the world, our enemies celebrated. Our friends despaired.
We left Europe on a minority vote of 37% of the electorate, after a Referendum Campaign that was packed with misinformation and misjudgement. It left our country poorer, weaker and divorced from the richest free trade market in history.
The national interest was brushed aside by false hopes and promises, that even a Cabinet dominated by frontline Brexit enthusiasts was unable to deliver.
The gains – from Brexit – that were promised so confidently can now be seen to be illusory, while the forecast damage of leaving the EU has become only too apparent.
The nation soon saw “project fear” become “project reality”. It is no consolation that a majority of the public now – overwhelmingly – recognises that it was misled.
In their moment of triumph, Brexiteers predicted other countries would follow their lead and leave the EU. None has ‒ all saw only too clearly that Brexit was packed with disadvantages.
As we meet, nine further nations now wish to join the EU which is an apt comment on the world view of Britain’s decision to leave.
The UK once revelled in being a leading member of a EU, with half a billion citizens and the undoubted first ally of the United States – the world’s most eminent super-power. Today, we know we are neither ‒ and so does the world.
As we plan for the future, we must see ourselves as we now are: and what we are is
70 million people in a world of 9000 million.
The UK has a proud history, a wealth of talents and a role in the world that continues to be significant.
So, we have much to offer our partners. Our national assets would make the European Union stronger and better equipped to face an uncertain future.
Our collective future demands a Europe that conducts itself as an economic super-power alongside America and China: the alternative is to be ever subordinate to their political and economic whims.
As I look to the future, I have no appetite for that.
I know the shortcomings of the EU ‒ I lived with them for many painful years. But, in a dangerous and uncertain world – with two unpredictable super-powers – I believe Britain’s future is safer and more economically secure inside a powerful bloc of neighbour nations than outside.
But we cannot simply knock on the door and rejoin the European Union. Too much political and diplomatic blood was spilt for that to be an easy option. There are many barriers to a return to full membership that will be difficult to overcome – perhaps for many years.
That said, there are areas where we can make a start and – looking forward – the plain truth is that the EU is too important for the UK not to be part of its decision-making process.
My immediate ambitions are limited, but a necessary beginning. The changing public mood will help.
The Polls tell us that well over half the electorate believes it was a mistake to leave the EU, and less than one-third now supports having done so. Among the young, support for Brexit falls as low as 13%. The trend is inexorable.
That is why it is disappointing that both Government and Opposition are so wretchedly timid in their ambition. Both Labour and the Tories are terrified of the residual Brexit vote.
Our economic and political interests could not be clearer, but short-term Party political calculation is given priority over the national interest.
Brexit is a flop. It will not leap up from its death bed. It is losing our country £100 billion of trade every year – as well as the tax revenue that trade would deliver.
Just think about that. Every year – every year – the loss of billions of European trade is damaging our finances. The loss is made far greater by decisions the present Government has taken. That is one reason why we are facing a difficult Budget later this month.
Serious economists forecast a cumulative loss to the economy of £311 billion by 2035, together with 3 million fewer jobs and a fall in trade levels with the EU.
As of now, many small and medium-sized firms have been defeated by post-Brexit bureaucracy, and simply stopped trading with Europe. It is baffling that – at a minimum – we are not looking at how to negotiate away such frustrations.
New trade deals – supposedly to cover lost European trade – have not done so. Most are simply roll-overs of past deals. Some are positively damaging.
The much-promised “mega” trade deal ‒ swapping additional American trade for lost European trade ‒ has never happened – and shows no sign of doing so.
Much though I wish otherwise, I do not foresee an early return to full membership of the European Union. We have lost the unique and advantageous deals we gained in negotiations in the 1980s and 1990s – and I do not believe they can be regained.
Without them, a full return to Europe is almost certainly unobtainable in any likely Parliament until a younger generation of pro-European politicians come to power and the Brexiteer voice retreats again to the fringes of debate.
In the post-Brexit years, it has become glaringly obvious that it is in our self-interest to rebuild a better relationship with the EU as an institution and bilaterally with individual Member States.
The Government has made some modest steps that are welcome: none is dramatic – but all will play a small part in building trust.
More collaboration is under discussion ‒ such as youth mobility schemes, and integration into the Electricity Market. Hopefully, they can be agreed.
I hope ambitions can be raised to examine rejoining the Customs Union and, thereafter, the Single Market. Neither will be easy or painless ‒ and both will face political opposition and negotiating hurdles.
But ‒ if a fair deal can be struck – it will be welcomed by trade and commerce, by a majority in Parliament, and by pragmatists everywhere. And it can be achieved.
We may even be helped achieve an improved relationship by the evident wish of our European neighbours to build an expanded military presence across Europe, but within NATO. British military capability is important to Europe.
If we try – and are rebuffed, we must try again. The prize is worth the effort. And, although those within the EU are tough negotiators, they must know that their long-term interests – and ours – are coming into alignment. A deal can be done – and it must be done.
UK
Politics is a tough trade ‒ perhaps more so today than at any time outside of war.
The commentariat, media, and social media give politicians little or no slack, even when dealing with novel and complex challenges.
Let me turn to some of these challenges relevant to British politics ‒ though not necessarily unique to us.
The cost of servicing our public debt is now over £100 billion a year, and the Chancellor’s second Budget in a few days’ time promises to be a painful lesson in what happens when nations spend too much and earn too little.
We are told constantly that “the broadest shoulders must bear the greatest burden” –
as, of course, a progressive tax system should ensure they do. But it cheats the nation to pretend “the rich” can bear all the burden – or have not been bearing an increasing portion for a long time.
In the late 1970s, the top 1% of UK taxpayers paid 11% of the total income tax take:
last year, they paid not 11% ‒ but 29%. The Chancellor should beware: to force the rich away will place a far greater burden on “the average tax payer”.
We are not alone in our problem. The scale of national debt is reaching crisis levels in rich countries as well as poor.
Already, 60% of the world faces debt-to-GDP levels of over 100% ‒ including most of the world’s largest economies.
This is an indictment of governments offering “Jam today” and “a bitter pill” tomorrow. It’s now “bitter pill” time.
No-one can be sure when the crisis will be triggered ‒ or what the catalyst will be ‒ but the world cannot continue to overspend and expect economic security. And nor can we.
IMMIGRATION
A word about immigration.
No-one should blithely assume this is a short-term problem that will easily go away: it won’t. Last year, 950,000 migrants arrived ‒ 50,000 illegally by boat.
This is obviously socially unsustainable. But the lure of our country will not disappear. The long-term demand to come here will continue.
The scale of this demand – although unwelcome – is a back-handed compliment. No-one clamours to enter Russia, China or Iran. Even so, there is a practical limit to how many the UK can absorb.
Yesterday, the Home Secretary presented new plans to Parliament that are controversial – but also more comprehensive than anything we have previously seen.
They deserve careful study – not instantaneous acceptance or rejection.
But – however the Home Secretary’s plans proceed – a long-term solution is likely to include a pan-European effort. All of Europe faces this problem.
One aspect of reducing migration would be to make it more palatable for migrants to remain in their own countries.
The policy of cutting aid and investment to poor countries is very shortsighted: it will accelerate demand to migrate as hardship increases. This is a policy that acts completely against our own interests.
It is morally wrong, politically wrong – and heartless.
There have been hints that the Government will now re-think this policy: it should do so as soon as it can.
POPULISM
Let me return briefly to populism.
Populism is no longer a fringe problem of a few outlandish politicians: it is now mainstream and professional, and we should recognise the threat it poses to democracy. If we do not – and it gains power – it will not tolerate its opponents.
It is not easy to defeat populist groups offering disaffected people simple solutions to complex problems. After all, if the established politicians have seemingly “failed” in finding solutions, it is human nature to look elsewhere.
But populism is a dead end. I offer two antidotes to its appeal.
The most effective – is policies to remove deeply felt grievances and regain political support.
Contented nations rarely support populism. A return to stable growth would end much of the public dissatisfaction that gives life to it. Such a recovery would also ease the minds of many people worried about their future.
The second defence against populism is to expose the dangers of its policies and the unworkability of its solutions.
I do have a warning though: over-the-top attacks on populist Leaders – as opposed to their policies – can be counter-productive. Unworthy attacks can offer them the oxygen of public support: a dissection of harmful and undeliverable policy can take that support away altogether.
The truth is that the only side populism is on is its own. It cares for no-one else. And if it flourishes, democracy declines.
Democracy has a lot to lose. The established political Parties need to defeat populism – not copy it. The sooner they raise their game the better.
SUMMATION
I would like to end on a personal note.
I talk about the risks we face, because we dare not ignore them.
I talk of the future, because the present must prepare for it.
In modern politics, multiple challenges and day-to-day crises crowd in so fast, that it sometimes seems the future is crowded out by the immediacy of now.
We must stop that, or we will simply drift, and events – rather than our national interest – will forge our future. If that were to happen, it would be a profound failure of Government.
My worry, to put it bluntly, is this: the future seems to be secondary to the frustrations of today. But it shouldn’t be. Future problems can become today’s problems very quickly.
If we don’t face up to the risks of war; of national debt; of climate change; of long-term migration; of the health – even survival – of our political system; then we fail in the duty we owe to our history, our present, and our future.
I believe in our nation: in its history, its values, its natural sense of fairness and justice, its essential kindness and tolerance – and I admire the way in which it has always risen to existential challenge.
We must look to the future without fear of change, or timidity of action, but with the conviction that we can build the welfare of our nation, and sustain our place in the world.
We have faced far more difficult times than now, and come through them. The choices and challenges of today may be more complex, but they are less stark than we have faced before. They can be overcome – and must be.
But, to do so, we must abandon the cacophony of spin, soundbite, and empty noise – that so often substitutes for political debate about the well-being of our nation.
It is time to turn our back on complacency, on pessimism, on short-termism, on the second rate, on the fear of failure, on artificial divisions – and raise our ambitions to bring substance to the fore in politics, pride back in to our nation, and hope back into our lives.
This is the principle by which Maurice lived, worked and taught.
And the principle which – I believe – runs deep within us all.
We owe such an approach to the future.
It is my fervent hope that, together, we can work towards that outcome.
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Sir John Major’s Speech at the Sir Edward Heath Annual Lecture – 26 June 2025
The speech made by Sir John Major on 26 June 2025 at Salisbury Cathedral.
THE CHANGING POLITICAL LANDSCAPE
AT HOME AND ABROAD: A REALITY CHECK
This occasion is intrinsically linked with Ted Heath and – with my memories of him – I am honoured to speak to you today.
Ted was not an easy man to know. He was a mass of contradictions ‒ and not always “user-friendly”. He could be brusque, wooden, charmless, and yet had the gift to make friends for life, and supporters who admire and sustain his legacy.
A complex man, he wasn’t born to privilege, but rose to prominence by sheer ability. His metier was policy, not presentation. Facts – and logic – were his political weapons of choice.
His priority was country first. Party came second. And he led, not followed public opinion.
Essentially an Englishman, his service during the Second World War forged his belief in the closest possible relationship between the United Kingdom and our neighbours in Europe.
A principled politician, he fought for this throughout his political life – and was right to do so. Europe is a cause, temporarily in obeyance, but not lost. It is still in play.
Ted had an active life beyond politics.
In his talent for sailing, classical music, the piano, and his love of conducting, he filled his life with passions far removed from the battleground of Westminster. He loved – as Yehudi Menuhin put it: “the wind, the land and the sea”.
There is a fascination about Ted’s career ‒ his rise, his rule, his fall ‒ that would have challenged even Shakespeare’s magical pen.
I’ve no doubt the discerning eye of history will treat him more generously than his contemporaries and – with that judgement – I concur.
Which is why it is such a pleasure to be with you this afternoon. Here, where Ted called home.
*****
Among the advantages of age is the experience of mistakes ‒ your own and those of others ‒ and the ability to learn from them.
Advancing years allow time for reflection, and eases us from the bonds of political correctness and Party self-interest.
In that spirit, I would like to conduct a reality check.
Imagine our world as a jigsaw, each piece in its place, laying before you, familiar and settled.
And then, of its own volition, the jigsaw begins to break up and take a new shape.
This is our world as it changes, and it has not yet assumed a shape we can rely on ‒ nor with which we can be comfortable. Nor can we be sure it will do so.
We Britons are a piece of that jigsaw puzzle. We fit where fate – and our own endeavours – take us.
For 80 years, we have been lucky to have lived under a rules-based system; been spared long and costly international wars; and – until recently – enjoyed a steady growth in national wellbeing.
Beyond any question America and China are the dominant forces in our modern world ‒ no other nation state comes close.
But neither of these two powerful nations offer the assurance of an ordered and peaceful future. They are rivals in trade. Opponents in politics.
What they are not are allies in building a better world.
The elevation of Presidents Xi and Trump to great power ‒ the first not a democrat, and the second not always behaving like one ‒ helps explain the uncertainties that now exist.
Of these, there are many. Moderate Parties of Left and Right are in crisis in France, where the extreme Right may win the next parliamentary and presidential elections.
The UK and Germany, too, face an insurgency from the intolerant Right.
Putin’s brutal invasion of Ukraine has erased the global peace dividend the West enjoyed after the fall of the Soviet Union.
We – among others – are now to spend more on defence, and to finance that by cutting aid to the world’s most wretched and helpless.
Many people, with voices that will never be heard, will suffer and die because countries have made this change in budgetary priorities.
It is short-sighted and – to my mind – callous. And the fallout, over time, will be greater migrant demand to live in the richer countries.
The switch from care to conflict comes courtesy of Putin’s military ambitions. He was, is, and will continue to be a menace to European peace.
As a newly-minted super power, China seeks to dominate the international order and is using military and commercial muscle to expand her interests – and increase her influence.
China is not a democratic country ‒ indeed, she is an avowed opponent of democracy, being first amongst a rising number of nations that see democracy as an alien ‒ and inefficient ‒ form of government.
For a long time the United States has been our closest, most trusted ally. Twice, in the last century, her entry into a World War has been decisive.
The display of American power in Iran a few days ago was awesome, but the situation is so dynamic that – if required – this matter is best addressed over questions.
For over 80 years, history and shared interests have kept America and the UK in lockstep. But, we are on notice that we can no longer depend on that.
It is fanciful to believe the America of today is still the America we knew from Eisenhower to Obama. But, demonstrably, she is not.
After the Second World War, the hands that exercised power were working within a rules-based-system that is now being questioned and ‒ in part ‒ rejected, by voices within and beyond the Trump Administration.
President Trump believes that enhancing American power takes precedence over the wellbeing of the wider international community.
Under her current leadership, America will not “pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend” if it conflicts with the President’s policy to “Make America Great Again.”
His Vice-President rammed the new priority home: “Europe is no longer a primary focus” for America. It was a harsh truth.
If that is a settled judgement ‒ it tells the British and Europeans that we can no longer rely absolutely on the support – in all circumstances – of the nation that, for so many years, has been our strongest ally.
Nor can we, with justice, simply blame America for this uncertainty. For decades, Europe – collectively – has under-performed on defence expenditure, and must now repair the shortfall.
The President’s new approach was evident when he negotiated directly with Russia over the Ukraine war. He did so without consulting NATO allies ‒ nor even Ukraine. It was as though allies were irrelevant.
It has been an unsettling time.
President Trump claimed the invasion of Ukraine would never have happened if he had been President ‒ but did not explain why not ‒ nor how it would have been averted.
He promised to end the war on “Day One” of his Presidency. He did not.
He believed he could bring “his dear friend” Putin to a deal to end the war. He has not.
I accept President Trump wants peace. But on what terms? He demanded concessions from Ukraine – the attacked, and then proposed a settlement to aid Russia – the attacker.
Ukraine has been threatened, bullied, and had military and intelligence withdrawn as if she were the aggressor. It was as though America had her arms around Putin’s shoulders, and her hands at Zelensky’s throat.
This turns reason on its head. Such a posture may well encourage would-be aggressors everywhere, and bring fear to potential victims.
Shifts in established American policy continue to cause uncertainty and confusion.
No-one envisaged a President:
- threatening to take over nations like Canada or Greenland against their will;
- casting doubt on the US commitment to NATO;
- introducing tariffs that disrupt the world economy;
- withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement; or
- treating immigrants ‒ even if illegal ‒ like trash to be thrown away.
Whatever frustrations she may feel, does America realise how all this is viewed around the world?
Will uncertainty over future policy cause our allies in the East – Japan, South Korea, Philippines – to consider building their own nuclear capacity?
Will Saudi Arabia or Turkey? Or, perhaps, others?
The answer to those questions may unsettle our world. The unwelcome vision arises of a dramatic increase in nuclear States. The implications of that are truly terrifying.
President Trump may achieve extraordinary things. His very unpredictability promotes uncertainty – and sometimes fear – of what he might do next. In this fashion, he gains compliance with his wishes.
The timid may crumble, the cautious may appease, but I hope the President understands that agreement under duress is false and unreliable.
If someone has their foot on your neck, you may comply with their wishes ‒ but you will never forget the foot.
America is, by far, the most powerful nation in the world. What she does will be followed by others. Government by threat will create resentment and chaos. It will not create calm.
This is not America as I have known her. This is not democracy as I understand it.
For every action in life, there is a reaction.
When President Trump speaks publicly – to chide or to threaten, he does not do so in a vacuum.
His voice echoes around the world, and what people hear has consequences to how they behave.
What does Mr Putin think? He is delighted. So is President Xi. Autocrats are thrilled to see the democratic world at odds with itself.
After all, if President Trump threatens to seize Canada, why should not Putin seize Ukraine? Or Xi take over Taiwan?
Why should not other autocrats judge that world opinion will no longer react to a coup or a land grab?
How many countries does that imperil? How many lives does that sentence to a hopeless and miserable future?
Much of the world accommodates America and China, hoping not to become victims to superpower malevolence.
Is this the rules-based world we have known? Or is it to become Kipling’s Law of the Jungle?
Politics is about people, their hopes, their fears, their lives ‒ it is not just about deals or money or mineral wealth.
Perhaps I am too old and out of time, but should not politics – at its heart – be about high moral purpose? Is the concept of “MAGA” – of widespread national self-interest – going to poison the well of decency in international relations?
How did you feel when Elon Musk – the richest man in the world – removed aid from the poorest people on the planet?
And how far does this negligence stretch?
No-one lifted a finger a few months ago when the Venezuelan election was stolen. Is democracy so shrivelled it no longer objects to the theft of a nation?
In Gaza, is Israel solving a problem – or creating one?
How will the dis-possessed, the injured, the bereaved see Israel when the present fighting is done?
Will not today’s death and destruction boost recruitment for tomorrow’s terror?
I do not believe it is possible to totally eliminate Hamas: it is an “idea” – a “doctrine” – as well as a terror group.
But every Palestinian ‒ man, woman and child ‒ is not a Hamas terrorist. What compassion and help will be given to those whose homes and lives have been wrecked?
What of the crises in Syria and Sudan and the Congo? Or the plight of the Afghan women? Are they simply to be forgotten?
Is starvation now a legitimate weapon of war? If so, to whom can the helpless turn?
Who will lead the world in helping those who cannot help themselves? Will our modern world cynically walk by on the other side?
Is barbarianism now acceptable if the barbarian is strong enough – or the victim without friends.
Can it be that our world is so exhausted, politics so tainted, self-interest so predominant that it has abandoned compassion? Is might now right? Has the law, human decency, and political morality been cast aside?
Or is it, perhaps, as simple as this: that our world is now beginning to elect leaders concerned only about national self-interest?
If so, if politics leads countries to hunker down in their own little trenches of interest, ignore reason, by-pass diplomacy, forego enlightened self-interest –
then heaven help us all.
I daresay the questions I have asked will be thought to be unworldly. If so, I despair ‒ because political action and political morality should be allies, not strangers.
And, if we are not concerned for ourselves, is this really the world we wish to hand on to the next generation?
I think not – and am encouraged by the aid given to Ukraine: for Ukraine is also fighting for our own future.
It is evident that we must enhance our own defence capability.
A welcome increase in defence expenditure has been announced but, I fear, it is only the first instalment of what will be required.
My guess is that, over the next few years, core military expenditure will have to rise way above 3½ % of GDP. That is a significant burden, requiring a reassessment of priorities.
We will not be alone: other European countries face a similar dilemma if Europe is to rebuild her own defences with weapons appropriate to tomorrow’s challenges. If they do not ‒ they will be culpable.
I admit to a concern about this. Will countries maintain higher defence expenditure if the current crisis eases? History suggests some may not. Self-protection tells us they must.
UNITED KINGDOM
Let me turn to our own country.
Britain is at a low ebb. Our economy has been near stagnant for almost two decades, and relatively weakening since the Second World War. The Pound Sterling is worth one-third of its post-war value against the mighty American Dollar.
Countries with large populations have risen in economic influence simply because of their size. That continues – and is inexorable.
Growth at home has been feeble since the 2008 sub-prime crisis. Productivity is half the level of the 1990s. We are deeply in debt. Taxes are too high, and confidence and investment too low.
Our military capacity has fallen steadily. Our Armed Forces are inadequately funded, ill-equipped for present risks, and diminished in manpower.
Our great institutions ‒ Parliament, Politics, The Church, Police, Press, Public Services no longer have the respect they once enjoyed.
This is a sad litany, but a sobering reality.
Is our position recoverable? Of course, it is ‒ but the task will require a supreme national effort.
Our country needs a climate of hope and help ‒ not hindrance.
The past can offer us some comfort. I grew up in the 1940s/50s when our country was all-but-bankrupt, and facing an even more challenging future than now.
It was the mid-1950s before food rationing ended.
A new house then was less expensive than a second-hand car is today but ‒ to put that in perspective ‒ my weekly salary, in 1959, would not now buy two cups of coffee at Pret.
So it has not been 80 years of failure. We have come a long way.
Living standards are immeasurably improved. So is healthcare and life expectancy.
I hope past success can encourage policy makers to believe that the problems before us can be overcome ‒ but with the caveat that yesterday’s solutions will not meet tomorrow’s challenges.
To hear modern politicians channelling their inner Attlee or Thatcher is not leadership: it is nostalgia.
The lessons of Attlee and Thatcher are that acute difficulties can be overcome ‒ but not by looking backwards: that is for historians. Politicians must look forward.
Governments have a duty to convey reality to the electorate. Promises that are undeliverable will only add to national disillusion.
We cannot recover without growth. We cannot have growth without public and private investment. And we cannot have that, without incentive and reward. We know this, but appear to ignore it.
The UK has many attractions ‒ an open economy; an incorruptible legal system; some worldclass universities; high-level capability in dispute resolution; life sciences; finance; the service sector; AI; space technology, and much else.
More can be done: lighter touch regulation; much more skill training; a closer relationship with Europe; and ‒ please ‒ a reformed tax system that does not penalise success.
We have to make an attractive offer to investors and traders, and offer hope and opportunity to our disillusioned young.
We need to applaud success and innovation. We need to encourage entrepreneurs to enter our country, and not leave it taking their ideas and their money elsewhere.
If we crush ambition and initiative we will sink into long years of slow growth or no growth. To avoid sclerosis we must open our mind to every path to wellbeing.
And so I come to Europe.
EUROPE
Here lies a difficulty. One whiff of collaboration with Europe and voices cry out we are “betraying the cause”, “surrendering”, throwing away Brexit “freedoms”.
What nonsense this is. The only Brexit “freedom” I’ve yet seen is the freedom to be poorer. And we’ve not only seen that: we’re experiencing it.
I don’t seek controversy ‒ merely reasoned debate. One obvious contribution to higher growth is to improve our trading relations with our nearest neighbours.
My views on leaving Europe are no secret.
Our exit was a gift to countries that wish us ill, and a shock to those that wish us well. It has scarred the body politic, and may yet be written on the tomb of the Conservative Party.
I am no longer in politics. No more at the centre of events. But it breaks my heart that the Brexit saga has so poisoned our politics, damaged our economy, and undermined our national standing in the world.
I continue to search for the “benefits of Brexit” but they are as elusive as Lord Lucan. Some politicians talk of them ‒ but are unable to tell us what they are, or where they may be found.
What is ever-present are the dis-benefits of Brexit. Any overall assessment of them is a damning indictment of the policy.
Eminent economists – the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, the Office of Budget Responsibility, Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs among them – have on average estimated the long-term loss to our GDP to be about 4%, resulting from a fall in trade volumes.
The loss builds up to that percentage over time. But, even if our national income didn’t rise at all between now and the mid-2030s, a loss of 4% would amount to over £100 billion pounds.
Consider that for a moment. One hundred billion pounds less of each year’s national income. Say it quietly and it’s just a statistic. But it isn’t – it’s real.
One hundred billion of our future income that we threw away when we left Europe.
That GDP loss leads to a fall in government income.
So, Government’s share of this loss – at present tax rates – would be nearly
£40 billion pounds.
That’s £40 billion of more taxes, or less spending, or most probably more borrowing.
Of course, as members of the EU we paid a contribution to Brussels – just under £10 billion pounds a year when we left. And, to be sure, that might have risen. But it would still leave us with a very big fiscal loss.
Indeed, if you allow for the spiral of loss – extra interest payments to finance the extra borrowing, and so on – you quickly get to some very big numbers indeed.
In 2018 – after we had decided to leave – the Treasury estimated the extra borrowing at £72 billion by 2035, if we didn’t do a deal that gave us market access.
That same Treasury report suggests that – if we had negotiated a European Economic Area scenario – with UK membership of the Single Market – the long-term loss would fall to £22.5 billion.
And, if the Government had managed to meet the negotiating ambitions of its own White Paper, the loss would be a mere £1 billion.
But these ambitions were simply tossed aside to “Get Brexit Done” and a “hard” Brexit was rushed through at great future cost.
Bad choices won. The British people lost.
I am glad to see that Keir Starmer is slowly and painfully beginning to work his way back into a better trading relationship with the EU.
Anything that helps to bring that £72 billion threat down is welcome – especially at a time when other tariff barriers are rising.
But the Prime Minister’s unwise pre-election disavowal of the Single Market means we are still suffering a substantial fiscal penalty – far bigger than the controversial claim that the Government “inherited a £22 billion “black hole””.
That claim is arguably illusory – and certainly exaggerated: the Single Market “black hole” is very real.
And that’s not all.
Before we left the EU, we received loans from the European Investment Bank for capital investment. We did well.
In our final years, we received about £6.8 billion a year. For comparison, France – despite her bigger economy – received some £6.6 billion.
Brexiteers claimed we’d fill the gap from our own replacement public investment institutions.
But we haven’t. So far, these institutions have been lending about £2.3 billion a year.
The effect is clear: if we had not left the EU, our annual public sector investment could have been far higher.
But it wasn’t ‒ so we lost tens of billions in investment ‒ amid a deteriorating infrastructure in pothole Britain.
I will not bother to cost the employment of tens of thousands of additional civil servants to handle Brexit – nor the exit costs of leaving the Union.
In response, Brexit supporters may say: “Ah! But we have new trade deals”. That is true ‒ but to offset the loss? Hardly.
The new trade deals are welcome, but modest, and nowhere close to compensating for the loss of European trade.
In the last five years, our trade grew at a miserly 0.3% a year ‒ one-fifteenth of the growth between 1980-2008. Is Brexit the problem? In part, yes.
In one respect, the Brexit agreement was unique: it is the first ever trade deal to erect new trade barriers rather than eliminate them.
Ted Health would never have been deflected from the importance of European trade. Nor would Margaret Thatcher: it is why she entered the Single Market.
That is the distinction between statesmanship and showmanship.
Even in retrospect, it is hard to comprehend what we have done.
We – the UK – are a trading nation ‒ more so than any of our competitors.
International trade contributes one-fifth of our economy – more than China or America – or the EU. Yet we, the world’s pre-eminent trader, walked away from the richest free trade area the world has ever seen when it was on our very doorstep.
No wonder our competitors thought we had taken leave of our senses.
We lost more than money. In diplomatic terms, Brexit achieved an outcome that our governments had sought to avoid for centuries: it united Continental opinion against us, making it hostile to British interests, and less open to British persuasion.
We still face a choice. One day, we will either have to accept change ‒ or offer our country a lower standard of living ‒ perhaps permanently.
What should we do?
I am not emotionally a European ‒ I am too British for that.
I do not advocate re-joining the EU as a full Member. This is politically unrealistic at present, and will be a decision for a later generation.
But, for now, we can recover lost trade by moving towards re-entering the Customs Union and the Single Market. I know for some this is a big and contentious decision. But ‒ if we think small we will be small.
As I look forward, I see good, practical reasons for building up our relationship again. We British are a mere 70 million people in a world of nine thousand million.
I believe, in every way, our four nations will be better off, more secure, safer and richer, as part of a much larger and more powerful bloc. That is true now – and will become even more so in the lifetime of our children and grandchildren.
Of course we will survive economically on our own: perhaps, in due time, we will even thrive. But my fear is wider.
In a world dominated by the United States and China, a dis-united, weak Europe will forever be a subordinate demandeur; an on-looker of great events; a follower not a leader.
And Britain, France, Germany, Italy and all Europe will no longer have the confidence, the security, the achievements that should be our legacy to our successors.
My affection for Europe is not for what it was, or is, but what it can be.
The world is changing, and we must change with it.
I don’t wish to see our world dominated by two self-interested super-powers.
All of Europe ‒ with the UK as an ally ‒ can be a counter-weight. Events are pushing us towards greater self-dependency, and we must embrace that.
I do not underestimate the difficulties of enhancing our relationship with Europe.
But – as we look ahead – Europe will need us as we will need them. We are not supplicants, we are partners. And a joint partnership will strengthen the whole of Europe.
When we left the EU, the Europeans – feeling unwanted – left the UK, only to be replaced by a far greater number of migrants from around the world.
Of course we must reassure our nation about freedom of movement and migration. But note this: the Brexit promise was that ‒ by leaving the EU ‒ we could control our borders: we have not. The situation has worsened not improved.
This migrant problem is wider than our own country. It is most likely to be solved with European-wide co-operation, not British isolation.
But all our ills did not originate with domestic errors.
Brexit was certainly self-inflicted. But the financial collapse in 2007/8 over sub-prime mortgages was not. Nor was Covid. Nor was the Ukraine war. Nor was the shifting relationship with America.
* * * * *
Let me close as I opened – with the image of that jigsaw puzzle.
A puzzle which – through the ages – has been broken up, rearranged, refashioned – and then re-moulded all over again.
For 80 years, that puzzle was familiar. We knew where the pieces fell. There was order.
It is now breaking up again, and where the pieces will fall is uncertain.
But no jigsaw can be completed by looking at each piece in isolation. They must all fit together to create the desired tableau.
Each one of us – from my generation down – needs to understand where the world is now, and where each piece of that new jigsaw needs to fall to secure harmony and economic security.
That is the reality. It is work in progress.
And, for all our sakes, that endeavour must not fail.
-
Sir John Major’s Interview with Amol Rajan – 18 September 2024
Amol Rajan’s interview with Sir John Major, broadcast on BBC Sounds on 18 September 2024.
AMOL RAJAN
Sir John Major is perhaps the most unlikely of our modern British Prime Ministers, the son of a circus impresario. He grew up in poverty and left school with just 3 O-Levels. Yet that didn’t stop him rising through the Tory ranks at remarkable speed, serving as Foreign Secretary, then Chancellor for Lady Margaret Thatcher, and then finally her replacement and successor as Prime Minister. His victory in the 1992 election saw him win more votes than any British leader in history at a general election, but battles over Europe, sleaze and the future of the Tory party led to his defeat in 1997.
Tony Blair, with a Labour landslide, ended 18 years of Tory rule in which Major had been a central figure. Sir John rarely gives interviews these days, but the man once held as an emblem of meritocracy clearly feels as strongly as ever about what his party, his country and his generation need to do urgently to fix Britain’s problems, restore its pride and help it thrive In the 21st century.
Here is Sir John Major. Sir John Major, very good to see you. Thank you very much indeed for agreeing to speak to me. I can’t help but note that you don’t often do interviews these days, so I must start by asking why you’ve agreed to do this one.
SIR JOHN MAJOR
It’s a rather unusual question, but I’ll give you a strictly truthful answer. There were two reasons, really. One, because it was a lengthy interview, and I do think a large number of the short interviews I see merely produce soundbite answers. They don’t really inform the public, and I think fewer, rather longer interviews would be more useful to the public. And secondly, though I probably shouldn’t say this, it’s 65 years since I joined the Conservative Party. I was, am and always will be a Conservative. But in recent months, a little longer, a few months, there’s not been a great deal I could say that I would wish to say in favour of what the previous Government were doing. That being so, I thought it better just to stay off the air. Now, of course, the election is behind us. The party’s looking again to the future, and I can return to speaking out, hopefully in favour.
AMOL RAJAN
[narrating]
Now 81 Sir John is much more likely to be seen at a cricket match than in Downing Street. But he remains hugely influential in British politics, even though his seven years as this country’s leader hark back to a very different era. Sir John’s life story is by any measure remarkable. He is the son of a mid Victorian, his father Tom was born in 1879 and in his mid 60s when his son John was born. A circus impresario, he fell on hard times when a deal went sour and the family moved from a bungalow in Worcester Park, a suburb south of London, to a two bedroom apartment with a communal toilet in Brixton’s Coldharbour Lane. Sir John endured poverty and hated school, giving it little effort and leaving with 3 O-Levels.
I met up with him at the Oval, home to Surrey Cricket Club, where he was once President, and just over a mile from the Brixton street that decades earlier Sir John had called home. Sir John. It’s not a bad sight, is it?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
I mean, it’s absolutely beautiful.
AMOL RAJAN
When did you first come here?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
I first came to the Oval, I can’t be precise to the date, early 50s, 1952 or 1953.
AMOL RAJAN
Did you come with your father?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
No, I came on my own, I would have been 10, and we lived in Brixton. I could walk here in 25 minutes, it was very cheap to get in here if you came just for the afternoon. So I was a regular attender, pretty much from the early 50s. I was here for the whole of the seven years that Surrey won the championship. This marvellous county team, arguably the best ever, though Yorkshire would disagree with that, and I just saw some wonderful cricket here. It brings back the most extraordinary memories whenever I come
AMOL RAJAN
Well, they’ve given us lovely sound effects of the leather on willow and I could talk to you for several hours about cricket and cricket alone, but my paymasters tell me that there are some other subjects that we should touch on. So let’s start with one other thing that we’ve got in common, which is a childhood in South London, but you resist the invitation and the temptation to cast your childhood as a sort of school of hard knocks. You’re humble about your humble origins, and I do think it’s a very unusual beginning for a Prime Minister. And I do think that it’s quite remarkable that you should have entered Number 10 from where you began. So I want our audience to understand where you began. Just describe, if you would, the circumstances of Coldharbour Lane, because it was really just two rooms and a lavatory, wasn’t it?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
Well, there’s no lavatory actually, it was three floors down. Before I mention that, I should say my experience wasn’t unique, in the post-war period and in the early 50s, there were many families who lived in exactly the circumstances we did, or a good deal worse. There’s no point crying about that. I was extremely lucky in the family that I had, even if they had been unlucky in what life had done for them. But there were just two rooms, so there were five of us theoretically, my father, my mother, my older brother and sister, who were both older, my sister 13 years, my brother 11 years older than me, a parrot and a dog. There plainly wasn’t room for us all, so my brother moved out and actually lived in a shed for a long time, while they were repaying debt and there wasn’t much money.
I can’t ever recall my mother buying herself anything new, never a new dress. No luxuries, never a hairdo, never a meal out, never the cinema, never a holiday, certainly nothing remotely as smart as a bottle of wine in the house. So that was the experience of millions of people at that time, so I’m not saying it was unique, please don’t get that impression, but it was very different from life as it is today.
AMOL RAJAN
Was it happy?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
Yes, it was. But my mother was a near saint in my view, largely because whenever there was half a crown to spare, it wasn’t spent on her, she would spend it on my father when he became bedridden and there was not a great deal of life left for him, except to talk, to remember the past, and occasionally have a small tot of whisky. So if she could save up enough money, she wouldn’t buy something for herself, she would buy a bottle of whisky for my father, who would treat it very sparingly, a very special occasion when you had a glass, but he loved it.
AMOL RAJAN
You were clearly supremely smart because you got into Rutlish Grammar School. How did you find that?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
That wasn’t the happiest of times, but let me emphasise that it was not the school’s fault so much as mine. When we went into Rutlish, it was moving up in the world, its prefects wore mortar boards. They were clearly aiming to make the school a much more attractive proposition, as seen from the 1950s. than it previously had been. And there was I, forgive me mentioning this because I don’t like doing so, but there was I in jumble sales school uniforms, who had to travel from Brixton to Wimbledon every day to go to school and back every day. So there was no chance of me doing any extra school activities, where so many friendships are born, or the the thought of going on school outings was just a non-starter. So I felt a bit alienated from school, as I say, my fault and our circumstances, but I absolutely rebelled in the most stupid way possible, in that I didn’t work.
The only subjects I liked were English language, English literature and history. The rest I was completely disinterested in. So my school record was lamentable and a great disappointment to my parents. So I had to do the work I hadn’t done at school after I left it.
AMOL RAJAN
Why did you want to go into politics?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
I guess it was in the blood.
AMOL RAJAN
Was it?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
Well, it was in my blood. I first went to the House of Commons aged 13.
AMOL RAJAN
Colonel Marcus Lipton at the village fete?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
You’ve read my book?
AMOL RAJAN
Yes, yes, that’s right, out of respect, to do research.
SIR JOHN MAJOR
Marcus Lipton was a Labour MP, Colonel Lipton, very safe seat, Brixton at the time. He was a superb constituency member, I don’t know that he ever did a great deal in the House of Commons, but as a constituency member, he was brilliant. Everywhere you went, he would be there and I met him at the local church. The Reverend F. Franklin Cheney had invited me, the local vicar, and I met Marcus Lipton. We talked, and he realised when I talked about the things that I was concerned about, he was prepared to give me time and listen, and he realised that I was more likely to be Conservative than Labour. You regard that as surprising, but those were my natural instincts. Nonetheless, he said “have you ever been to the House of Commons?” and I said “no”, it had never occurred to me that I could go to the House of Commons. He arranged for me to have a pass to go and listen to a debate and I went, and Macmillan was in the House and Macleod was in the House, but came in and left. So I saw the great figures of British politics, but that wasn’t what caught me, walking into the House of Commons it was the atmosphere, it reaches out and grabs you. Well, it reached out and grabbed me, and I thought as I walked out of the House of Commons, this is where I’d like to spend my life.
AMOL RAJAN
[narrating]
In an era when working class boys were much more likely to join Labour than the Tories, Sir John became a member of the Conservative Party on his 16th birthday. Two decades later, having worked in Africa and the insurance industry, he was an MP. Admired by Mrs. Thatcher, he was a survivor of the Tory battles of the 1980s who, after a brief stint as Foreign Secretary, would become her Chancellor and then successor.
Well, there’s a lot to get into. Let’s start with where we are as a country, the country that you led for seven years. You used to say vocally, publicly, that you dreamt of a nation at ease with itself. Has your dream come true?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
Emphatically not, indeed, quite the reverse at the moment. Wherever you look, not just in our country, but right across Europe and the United States, there’s a great deal of dissatisfaction and a large part of it has come about from one single effect, and that is the financial crisis of 2007 to 2008 which has cast a very long shadow. In many European countries, and in parts of America as well, there are people who quite against all past and all tradition have had no increase in their net quality of life, in their net standard of living since 2008 to 2009. Now, that is unprecedented. That being so, it’s hardly surprising that people are upset and irritable with government and irritable with democracy, and they most certainly are.
Of course, there are other things that were not the result of any individual national government, the Covid pandemic, for example, was something that was unexpected. The Ukraine war, with all the difficulties created for governments right the way across Europe because of the increase in fuel prices, they were things no government could reasonably have anticipated were going to happen. And so, in addition, to the knock on effect from 2007 to 2008, you had these two mega events. The net result of all of those, I think, is a great deal of dissatisfaction and a great deal of pressure on democracy with the belief that it has been failing the electorates. You’ve seen that in the volatility of the electorate in the last two general elections.
AMOL RAJAN
A lot of people, a lot of voters, do think democracy is failing them, particularly young people, for reasons that we’ll get on to. Just before we do that and go back to where we are as a country today. Labour are back in power after 14 years. Given your answer to my first question about your party, would you say, did your party, the Conservatives, deserve to lose?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
I think there’s a time when democracy needs a change of government. Although I was the leader of the party at the time, I could see that, in 1997 we had been in government for 18 years, and it was perfectly true to say that we were tired and that we were running out of fresh ideas and we were running out of fresh people to make Ministers and reinject the government with vigour. So looking back absolutely personally, I can see why the country changed their minds in 1997, and of course, the same thing applies, although it was only 14 years on this occasion, but 14 years plus the difficulties of the pandemic that I’ve just been talking about,
AMOL RAJAN
We’re talking shortly after some data published showed there’s been a really significant fall in this country in national pride. Very significantly, fewer people are proud to be British and are proud of this country’s history. Why do you think that is?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
I think because they’re not seeing us succeed. I think there are a range of reasons, that’s partly because of their own personal experience, it’s partly because many of the things that they took for granted appear to need reform, appear to be broken. If you look at the post war settlement, most of that is now out of date, and yet, I see no one on the political horizon anywhere around the world who’s going to gather people together and look again at a new settlement that might be appropriate for the 2020s. It’s a different world from 1945 and 1946, and it hasn’t updated the fundamental structure of Western democracy.
AMOL RAJAN
You think we need a new settlement?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
I think it would be very helpful to have a new settlement. Let me give you one illustration, and it’s an illustration for which I do not have a solution. But if you look at the permanent five Security Council, they are no longer the five most powerful nations in the world as they were in 1945 and 1946. Of the five of them, they all have a single nation veto for action. So with China and Russia, many of the things that the UN really was really established to do, to prevent wars, for example, they are stymied completely because there’s a one nation veto. Now I would like to see the permanent members increased, there are big countries like India, Brazil, Japan, who perhaps usefully ought to be there and certainly I’d like to see an end to the one nation veto. I think it would reflect the world we live in, rather than the world that was.
AMOL RAJAN
That world is changing very, very fast, and some people don’t like how it’s changing. When you were elected into Parliament in the late 1970s throughout the 1980s, you often saw riots on the streets. One of the first things that we’ve seen in this country after the election of Sir Keir Starmer’s Government has been major rioting. Why do you think we’ve just seen riots on the street in this country?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
Well, I think it’s a function of the general dissatisfaction. If people are broadly happy with the direction their life is taking, then they don’t riot. If they aren’t happy, then they are much more likely to be subjected to things like rioting when seductive voices suggest we all ought to do this, we ought not to do that, and encourage people to take action against it. When people are content, or more content than they are at the moment, they resist those siren voices. At the moment they’re not, and so those siren voices have had some success.
AMOL RAJAN
Let’s get into some of the hard policy choices that come from that. One of the choices that the Keir Starmer Government has made concerns the early release of prisoners and prisons was a big part of your thinking. Obviously, when you were in power, prison reform is a subject on which you have been outspoken in the past. How would you have approached the dilemma of, on the one hand, wanting to be tough on rioters, but on the other, the fact being the prisons are full, and therefore you need to release people?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
Well, let me go back in history a bit for this, because it’s quite an interesting background. I was a humble Parliamentary Private Secretary in the home office in the early 1980s when Willie Whitelaw was Home Secretary, and I will never forget the day he burst into our morning meeting having just been told that the prison population had reached 40,000. “Terrible” he said, “how could it possibly be 40,000?”, but it’s now more than twice that. You ask ourselves this question, is there twice as much crime? No. Is there twice as much violent crime? Well, the public don’t believe it, but actually violent crime overall has been falling for some time. Are the police more efficient in catching criminals? Are they twice as efficient in catching criminals so they filled up the prisons? Well, I would think probably the answer to that is, no, they’re not twice as efficient as they used to be.
So what has happened? What has happened is, in the interim, whenever there’s been something wrong, one Home Secretary or another from both parties has decided we have to be tough on crime. The easiest thing to do is add to the tariff. Now, there are many people who should be in prison, people who are violent, people who are habitual criminals, I thoroughly agree they should be in prison. But I think I would argue that there are many people who have misbehaved, but they ought to be treated by non custodial sentencing of one sort or another.
AMOL RAJAN
So we’re locking the wrong people up in some cases?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
I think there are some of the wrong people we’re locking up and I think we’re locking up too many of them. It’s not for me to pick up precisely who they should be, but it seems to me we have something like, I think 6,000 women in prison. I don’t think there’s 6,000 violent women in prison, many of them will be there for relatively simple things and they could have been punished another way. The problem about saying sending people to prison ‘isn’t it a deterrent?’, you can argue that case to violent prisoners, yes, I accept it’s a deterrent and you must do it. I’m not a softy about that, but what I do think is where people are marginal and you send them into prison with the crowding we’ve got, they’re probably in their cells for most of their day. There’s very little recreation and in very few prisons is there actually any attempt at rehabilitation.
The vast number of people in prison, an astonishing statistic, actually have a mental capability of about 11 or 12 years old. They need some assistance so that when they come out of prison they haven’t just learned the things they learned in prison, which may be an addition to how you commit crime, but they’ve learned something that will enable them to get out of prison and find a job and create a different life for themselves. If they haven’t gone to prison, but they’ve had a non custodial sentence, it’s more likely that can happen. Now from the point of view of the public, should we not be focusing where we can, and it’s not everywhere, but where we can, should we not be focusing on turning people who have committed crime away from further crime once their punishment is over? I think we should, and I don’t think we’re doing that as effectively as we should.
AMOL RAJAN
As you say, for 30 years, the direction of policy has been against what you say. So why has prison reform of the kind you’re advocating now, and in fairness, have advocated for a long time, why has that prison reform not happened? Why is it not fashionable?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
It’s not happened because it’s just too easy to say ‘we must deter these people, we must punish them, we must send them to prison, we must make sure they don’t they don’t offend again’. The point is that last point, actually you send the wrong people to prison, you may well be encouraging them to offend again, because when they come out, what do they do? They may have lost their home, they may have lost their marriage, they may have lost their job. Who is going to employ them? You’ve just come out of prison. How many people? They’re not all as forward thinking as the Timpson family, who take in a lot of former prisoners and rehabilitate them after they’re out of prison.
Now I repeat, I’m not some soft liberal saying we should understand everything that’s gone wrong and treat people excessively leniently. Where necessary, there should be hard sentences to protect the public. My point is, I believe we’ve sent a lot of people to prison who are not of real danger to the public, who are foolish and have been dishonest, but there are probably better ways of punishing them than incarcerating them in a prison system that can’t take them in any decent circumstances. What is truly horrifying, most of our prisons are very old, they were built for one person in a cell 150 years ago. There may be two or three people in a cell now, and they may be in there for 23 hours out of 24. What does that do for someone when they’re there? How alienated from society are they going to become?
AMOL RAJAN
Do you think your position that you articulate now is a vote winner?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
I think it could be explained if you mean, is it going to be bitterly attacked by people to say, I am tough on crime? Yes, of course it is.
AMOL RAJAN
I just mean that you’re completely out of kilter, as you yourself acknowledge, with the direction of policy, and have been for the last 30 years. And it’s very striking to me that I hear very, very few people, the Timpsons being an exception, very few people, making the case you’re making in a General Election.
SIR JOHN MAJOR
Well, I suppose most people think it’s not what the electorate wish to hear. It is in a civilised society what I think the electorate has a right to hear. We haven’t got a really hawkish nation who’s out to punish people, of course not. If we had, why would so many people from abroad wish to come to this country? I don’t see them queuing to get up into China or queuing to get into Russia or Iran or North Korea, I do see people with hope in their hearts trying to come here, because they see us as a place of hope. I think you need to examine policies and see, have we got that right in the past? There are some areas why I appreciate my view is very much a minority view, but I think I’m under the belief that we are a democracy in which a majority view should be aired.
AMOL RAJAN
You mentioned millions of people around the world do want to come to this country, as you say, with hope in their hearts. But do you think the scale of immigration that we’ve seen to this country in recent years is one of the reasons that in your first answer, when I asked you if this is a nation at ease with itself, you said, no?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
Absolutely, I could have done that. People are fearful. I mean, with the best will in the world, we could not remotely take even a majority of the people who actually wish to come here. In a sense, we should be proud that people from all around the world look on us as a bastion of freedom and wish to come here, but we are a small island. We need to recognise what we are, we are 70 million people in a world of 8,000 million. Let us get ourselves in context and we are a small island. There is a limited amount that we can do, and I think we should do our limited amount. But beyond that, the public and governments are quite right to say, we simply cannot take people beyond a certain number.
AMOL RAJAN
So why has immigration been too high? Why has it got to the levels it has, over 700,000 net, Do you think?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
There’s been a big change, of course, since Brexit. Lots of people from Western Europe who work, particularly as it happens, in the hospitality industry have left, and other people have been actually encouraged by the Government to come here, and then with the people who come here by boats, who haven’t been encouraged to come here at all, but do because they’re not quite sure where to go. Of course, there isn’t the space for all these people, I see that, but how we deal with them is a separate question from whether we actually have enough room to take them. No, we haven’t got enough room to take them, but the manner in which we deal with them, the manner in which we process them, the manner in which we deal with them when we say we can’t have them here is a separate matter.
AMOL RAJAN
You mentioned the boats. Are you glad to see the back of the Rwanda scheme?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
Absolutely.
AMOL RAJAN
Why?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
If you really wish to know, I thought it was unconservative, unBritish, if one dare say it in a secular society, unChristian and unconscionable. I thought that really, this is not the way to treat people. We used to transport people, nearly 300 years ago, from our country, felons who at least had had a trial and been found guilty of something, albeit that the trial might have been cursory. I don’t think transportation, for that is what it is, is a policy suitable for the 21st century.
AMOL RAJAN
Let me challenge you on that because a lot of people, some in your party, some outside of your party, some that were once in your party, would say what’s really unconservative or unChristian is allowing this boat crossing to continue. The way you stop it, this was the argument of the former British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, the way you stop it is by having an effective deterrent. You could tell that the Rwanda scheme was going to be a deterrent because other countries were looking at it and were thinking about whether or not they might do a similar thing. So isn’t it actually the compassionate view to take all measures necessary to stop the boats, as someone once said, and isn’t the threat of deportation to Rwanda part of that policy?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
It doesn’t seem to have been working, the threat has been there for some time and it hasn’t stopped people coming. Are they seriously saying to me that somewhere in the backwoods of some North African country, they actually know what the British Parliament has legislated for? I think not. I absolutely think that is not the case. So I’m not sure that it is the deterrent at this stage. If it had actually happened, it might have been, but it would still have been odious in my view. But there are ways in which we can deal with this, better ways. Every nation in Europe has got this problem. Let me put it in a wider context, because it’s a long term problem,
AMOL RAJAN
And it’s a hard problem to solve.
SIR JOHN MAJOR
Which is why, over the last year, I kept my mouth shut about what I thought about it. It is a very hard problem to solve, and my sympathy goes out with Ministers trying to do it, because it is difficult. But let us put it in a proper long term context. There are people coming from all around the world who are coming here, and the more autocracies grow in other parts of the world, the more people have a life without the freedoms that we enjoy, the more they will seek to come here. There’s also the problem of Africa. Over the next 50 years, the African population is going to grow disproportionately to the rest of the world. In the next 50 years, it’s highly unlikely that the degree of investment in Africa will be able to provide good towns, good facilities, good hospitals, good education, all the things that they will need. A lot of people from Africa over the next 50 years will look for something better for themselves and their families, and they will come north and they will try to come to Europe. This isn’t just a short term problem.
So how did we solve that problem? I don’t think we solve it just with the Rwanda scheme, and in any event, that would only be a tiny part of it. It’s only a tiny part of the immigration, let’s get that point perfectly clear. But I think if the European and other countries worked together and decided they would tackle this problem at its roots. Let us seek out where these rubber boats actually are manufactured.
AMOL RAJAN
Often China?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
Often China. Let us ban their import into the whole of Europe, for example. Let us work together beyond China, where the boats have gone to, where people go there and seek out the gangs working with the local countries, not just Britain, but working with our partners all across Europe. It doesn’t mean you’re reinventing the European Union, they have a similar problem to us. Collectively we can provide a bigger deterrent. If we find they’re coming out of a particular port, you can actually police their port outside and turn the boats back almost where they start.
There’s a range of things that, so far as I know, haven’t been looked at although perhaps they have and have been turned down for reasons I don’t know, but I don’t think they’ve been looked at. There are policies that are going to have to be in place for a long time, because I’m afraid now the scale of this migration has grown and the problem has grown as it has. It will be quite a long term problem, whomsoever is in government, and almost whatever they do, so we must find a better way of dealing with it. I think if we deal with it collectively we’re more likely to have a policy that would be more effective.
AMOL RAJAN
I’m very strongly struck by the clarity of what you say about legal migration and the strength of what you say about illegal migration, because people watching this should know that you spent many decades actually advocating for what you described as the heroic story of individual immigrants who come here because they want a better life for them and their family. You’ve also advocated the idea of a multiracial society. You once wrote:
“Our house was multiracial for a time and it provided a good primer on poverty for a future Conservative Prime Minister, I knew the immigrants as neighbours. I played with their children. I shopped with them in Brixton market. I saw them for what they were, men and women seeking a new life in a land immeasurably wealthier than the ones they had left behind. Instead of inciting fear, the bigots should have gone to the Oval where, when the West Indies played, it was carnival time. The atmosphere was full of fun”.
This idea that the bigots should have gone to the Oval prompts me to ask you whether or not you worry that bigotry has seeped into the Conservative Party?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
You say the Conservative Party, I don’t know why you single out the Conservative Party. There’s a degree of bigotry in the country, there always has been.
AMOL RAJAN
Is there in your party?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
I think there probably is in a number of parties, I don’t think it’s solely within the Conservative Party. Certainly some of it is in the Conservative Party, some of it is in Reform UK, I’ve no doubt some of it is in the Labour Party. Don’t forget, when you look at politics, people tend to think that fascism and communism are at opposite ends of the political pole. They’re not. They meet. They’re next to one another. So it’s not fair to say it is just the Conservative Party. There are people in the Conservative Party who advocate policies I would disagree with. I wouldn’t call bigots that, they’re entitled to their view, and I’m entitled to my view.
One of the things that has gone wrong in the Conservative Party is that these days, they seem to think it’s better to be part of the faction of the party, rather than in the party as a whole. But that has been going on for a long time. I well remember in the 1980s, Margaret sitting there musing when she looked at someone, ‘Is he one of us?’ and she was looking at another Conservative MP. She wasn’t advocating division, but of course, that sort of idea encouraged people to set up different groups. We’re left wing conservatives. We are one nation. We’re a different form of group on the other side, and family feuds are always worse than feuds with people with whom you have nothing in common.
That has happened within the Conservative Party and it has happened within the Labour Party. I think we are going to find that the present Government, with its huge majority, will find that huge majority is very, very difficult to cope with, because there’ll be a lot of people in it who have views very different from the mainstream view of the most senior members of the Labour Party. We shall see, but I think he’ll have great difficulty with that.
AMOL RAJAN
What kind of health is the Conservative Party in today?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
It’s had a whopping great electoral defeat, it’s had three or four of those in its history, and it has recovered on each occasion. I may be deceiving myself, though I don’t think so, but I think a large part of our nation is, by instinct, centre right, not far right, but centre right. The only party that can legitimately appeal to the centre right is the Conservative Party and that is what we have to do. We have to decide where our natural support really lies and appeal to them.
People may have made a misjudgment about the last election, we lost five seats to Reform UK, and people are jumping up and down, and some rather reckless people are saying, well, we must merge with them. Well, that will be fatal. We’ve lost five seats to Reform UK, we lost 50 to the Liberals and and we lost a huge amount to Labour. We lost the vote on the left more than on the right, and we have to focus on that centre right position. We’re not an ideological party, I do think traditionally we have been a common sense party. I’m always suspicious of ideology. Heaven protect us from the ideologues, they have bonkers ideas sometimes, sometimes they’re brilliant, but sometimes they have bonkers ideas that lead people astray. I think we need a common sense solution to the problem, and how can we encourage people to believe that that is what the Conservative Party is going to stand for in the future. And I’m optimistic. We have had such a bad defeat, we have got a base upon which we can build in a wholly new and, I think, potentially effective way.
AMOL RAJAN
You say you’re optimistic about the Conservative Party, a number of questions follow from that. First, have you made up your mind about who you’ll support to be the next leader?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
I will look and see what they have to say. I’d like to support someone who’s going to look at the long term problems and make a suggestion as to which direction we should go. I’d like to look at someone who’s going to try and bring the party together and bring people back into the party who are genuinely centre right. So I’m more concerned with what they say than their individual personality. As to whether I have made up my mind, no, I haven’t.
AMOL RAJAN
I heard a story about how after you were voted out of office in 1997 you said to a young George Osborne, who was then your press advisor, I think it was his job to collect press cuttings for you and he’s had quite a career since. You said to him that the great danger for your party was to be taken over by its right wing. What’s the great danger today?
AMOL RAJAN
I don’t think the Conservative Party should be taken over by any part of it, there are different strands of conservatism. We need the right wing. What we don’t need is the far right, people who’ve attracted themselves to the right wing, who perhaps would be more comfortable in Reform UK than with us, but I don’t want to dispense of the right wing of the Conservative Party. They are a very important, valuable part of the Tory party, and so are the centre and the left of the Tory party. What I want is for them to reach a concordant so that they can agree and so that we don’t have these factional disputes within the party. They have done enough damage to us in more than one election over my lifetime.
AMOL RAJAN
But why do you say it would be fatal to merge with Reform UK? A lot of people think Nigel Farage should be in the Tory party.
SIR JOHN MAJOR
I don’t share that view.
AMOL RAJAN
Because I don’t think he’s a Conservative and he spent most of his time in the last few years telling people how much he dislikes the Conservative Party and would like to destroy it. I don’t think that’s a terribly good background for bringing someone into the party.
AMOL RAJAN
Just before we get into Europe, where that takes us, something strange is happening to conservative parties all around the world, isn’t it? Because you say conservatives stand for common sense, but I think one of the insights of conservatism is this idea that social goods are easily destroyed, but not easily created. And yet, all around the world, lots of conservative parties, like Trump’s Republicans, like perhaps the Conservative Party in this country, have been attacking institutions. They’ve been attacking democracy. Why has that happened do you think? Why have conservatives been drawn to those anti democratic tendencies?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
I find it baffling that they’ve done that. I mean the previous government talking of the blob, the blob are people who work for the Government and who are the mechanism to transfer the Government’s policies to reality. Doesn’t seem to be very sensible to insult them, and the whole series of other people, judges were enemies of the people I seem to recall many people said. Half the nation who voted to sustain our position in Europe, a position the Tory party had had for 40 years, were insulted as remoaners. They’re not remoaners, they’re people who consistently supported a Conservative Party that existed for a very long time. So I find it very difficult to understand why people actually took that particular view, and I think insulting people whose votes you need and whose votes you’re going to ask for does not seem to be a very good form of candidacy, but that is what people did, and we saw the result at the general election.
AMOL RAJAN
What has Brexit done to and for your party?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
Brexit has been the most divisive thing that has happened in our party in my lifetime, it is less important what it has done to our party than what it has done to our country.
AMOL RAJAN
That was going to be my next question. What do you think it has done?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
I don’t think it’s done anything good, if I may just reflect on it for a moment. It’s made our country weaker, poorer and that is emphatically not in the interests of our country. It has broken us away from alliances that were useful to us. The world saw us as a member of the European Union. When we spoke, they believed we had 500 million Europeans essentially behind us in what we spoke, it was a megaphone to magnify our power in the world. Similarly, they saw us as the closest advocates in Europe, in the United States, we were inside the European Union that helped the United States keep an eye on European policy, and they think we’re less close to the United States. So you take two of the three most powerful blocs in the world, we were the closest ally of one, and we’re now less close than we were, and we were part of the other, and we are no longer in the other. So instead, we are isolated and outside.
AMOL RAJAN
Did it have to be thus? I mean, could Brexit not have, if delivered in a different way, could it not have fulfilled the promise of those who advocated it, which is that it would make us richer and more free?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
It’s done exactly the reverse, hasn’t it? I mean, what’s the one thing that is consistent about the British nation for the last 400 years? We are a trading nation and what have we just done? We have broken away from the largest, richest free trade market the world has ever seen, and we were in the middle of it, as a leading part of it, and we have broken away from it. And what do we get instead, rolled over fresh trade deals with countries like Australia and New Zealand, who are old friends of ours, but the deals done with them were worse than the deals they rolled over. And if you disagree, go and ask our farmers what they think of the deals that were done. And the deal with Europe has gone. What is going to replace that? What is there that’s going to replace it? What has happened to all the benefits of Brexit that we heard about?
AMOL RAJAN
Maybe they’re yet to come.
SIR JOHN MAJOR
I don’t recall people saying during the election campaign, in 10 or 15 years time, maybe 20 we will have some benefits of Brexit. It was going to be milk and honey straight away, and it wasn’t milk and honey. Brexit was sold to the nation on the basis of things that haven’t happened and couldn’t have happened. There was a great degree of misapplication of reality, if I can put it in that delicate way.
AMOL RAJAN
Do you mean lies?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
That’s another way of putting it. What was actually told to the people about what Brexit was going to be about. A large amount of that came from Conservative sources, not all of it. There were some very senior Labour sources who were part of that at exactly the same time. But I don’t see the great advantages that were going to come from Brexit have come yet and I don’t see any likelihood that they’re suddenly going to magically appear in the future. Let me offer you another illustration, one that most people won’t have come across. Europe has about 20 strategic agreements with countries around the world, all around the world, which cover a whole range of things and which are useful to both parties. We are their nearest neighbour, we turned down a strategic agreement because the politicians, Tory and Labour, were too foolish to agree that we actually have to have a closer relationship with Europe.
I’m not bothered about the political loss of Europe very much, I am very much bothered about the trade loss. A Cambridge econometrics report published recently, there’s been a whole series of them, but I’ll just pick out one. I think every one of them, I can’t think of one that actually says we are better off because we’ve been through Brexit, they all say we’ve lost a vast amount of money. Cambridge Econometrics, if I remember, said we’d lost trade worth 130 billion. That would have been a huge amount of tax revenue for the Government and we wouldn’t be facing tax increases in the forthcoming budget if it hadn’t been for that sort of thing. We wouldn’t just have taken away fuel payments for the elderly if we hadn’t lost all that money, why do people not look at the practical example, the practical effect, that we are poorer. That is not some statistic, being poorer means taxes are higher, expenditure on public services are lower. That’s actually what it means, and that is what has actually happened because of the false promises of Brexit.
People said we were going to get our sovereignty back. Up to a point that’s true, we now have sovereignty to be poorer, we have sovereignty to be less influential. I don’t think that was the sovereignty that people wanted when they voted in the Brexit debate. The Brexiteers now say ‘oh, well, get over it, it’s all gone’, but if my house had been burgled, I would be pretty fed up if the burglar then said, ‘well it’s all over now forget about it’, and I think so would most people. I think we have to remember it, because I think we have to make sure that nothing like this happens again. What is so dispiriting is that neither the Conservative Party, nor the Labour Party, nor even except in slogans, the Liberal Party, actually seem to be looking for a way to ensure we get back as many as we can of the trading advantages that we have lost.
AMOL RAJAN
So would you advocate going back into either the single market or the Customs Union?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
I don’t think it is politically practical at the present moment, but I think it will happen. The next generation, the young generation, when they voted, voted overwhelmingly to stay in the European Union. In 10 years time, when they and their compadres are in Parliament and running the country, it may be possible to get back, but the Brexiteers did a good job in making it difficult, because we not only insulted our neighbours, but in addition to that, we have lost all the special advantages we had, the rebates, the opt out from the social chapter, all sorts of things like that, which they opt out from a single currency. All those things are gone.
If we sought to get back, we would probably have to accept them, or we couldn’t get back. So it may be that that is going to be more than Parliament at any stage I can see will accept in the foreseeable future. What they’ll do in the long term future, who can tell because who knows how circumstances will change? But the Brexiteers did a very good job in dividing us from Europe, even though they did a very bad job improving our prosperity and our wealth when they did so.
AMOL RAJAN
Let me put two principled objections to what you’ve just advocated to your position. The first is about trade deals. The argument of those who advocated for Brexit in 2016, and advocate for it now, is that by virtue of leaving Europe, we are free in future to strike trade deals around the world, which should, in theory, it may not have done in practice yet, but should, in theory, make us richer to be in a trade deal and trade deals with the growing part of the world, in particular in Asia.
SIR JOHN MAJOR
Do you think the European Union aren’t going to do that? 500 billion Europeans will strike a better trade deal with the growing part of the world than 70 million Brits can crazy. If there are trading opportunities that they can take, they will take them, and they will grow the European Union. And they will because of the sheer size compared to our size, they will probably get a better trade deal with whomsoever it is than we would.
AMOL RAJAN
But it’s Europe’s deal, not Britain’s.
SIR JOHN MAJOR
We were part of Europe. We benefited from the deal. What matters, to put it at its crudest, what is the cash flow and the job flow to the UK? That’s what determines our prosperity, that’s what determines our security and retirement. That’s what produces the resources in order to make sure that we have a properly funded defence policy. I’m afraid money is the root of all progress in many ways, and you don’t if you throw away the vast amount of money that came out directly in our direction because of the scale of our trading with the European Union, if you push that aside, it’s very difficult to replace in a way that could not have been replaced as a member of the European Union.
I want our country to succeed. I want our country to be in a position where we are respected for what we are, because there’s no country in the world I’d rather live in than this one, despite its shortcomings sometimes. I want it to be respected, I want it to be wealthy, I want it to be secure. It’s never going to be the great military power. There’s only two superpowers now, China and the United States, below that sits Europe. But Europe isn’t a superpower in terms of politics and isn’t a superpower in terms of defence. So they sit a little below and there are countries like Britain and others that are coming up, like India and more that are coming up, who will sit on the tier below that.
We will still have an important part to play in the future, because of our language, because of our history, because of our trade, because of some areas of our economy that we’re very good at, technology for example, because of the soft power we have. We have the best theatre in the world, we invented most of the sports the world played. This is a special nation, and it can be, and it should be, and we should play testimony to the things that are right. I wish we had been able to spend the last however many minutes it is we’ve been talking, talking about the things that are going right, or the things that could come right, rather than going over the things that have griped in the craw of vast numbers of people in our country and made it so miserable.
AMOL RAJAN
I want to talk to you about democracy. Before we do that, let’s get to the second aspect of the Brexit vote on which I think your position ought to be challenged. A lot of people who voted for Brexit did so because they felt that being part of the single market meant we had freedom of movement, and they didn’t like it. Now, obviously it’s the case that since we had Brexit, immigration has soared. But did it need to happen? That might be the result of policy choices the Government made, but a lot of people listening to you might say, ‘you know what? Immigration was too high, we wanted it lower, and Brexit was our best hope of voting for lower migration’. What do you say to them?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
I would simply point to the reality of what has happened. It was said that we were going to control our borders. It was another of those three word slogans, ‘get Brexit done’, ‘control our borders’. There are a whole range of them that were slogans rather than properly thought, our policy and the reality is quite different from what was promised, and that is true about immigration as well. So you can make that argument, but I don’t think it’s a substantive argument, and I wouldn’t agree with it.
AMOL RAJAN
Let’s turn to the New World Order. How would you describe Britain’s standing in the world today compared with, say, 20 years ago?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
It’s obviously a little less than it was and that’s not because we have particularly failed. It’s because it’s the way the world has changed. China has been marching into the world in a phenomenal way ever since the Nixon visit in 1972 when Deng Xiaoping took China into the world in a quite remarkable way. Xi is doing something differently and much more nationalist, taking the Communist Party back, once again, the Chinese right back to the centre of Chinese life to a greater extent. But China has grown. America looks as though it may not be the America that would pay any price, bear any burden to protect the success of human rights, but I think America is still crucially important to the world and particularly crucially important to the democratic world. Without America active, on the side of the democratic world, there are very great difficulties to come, so we must make sure that they are.
The world has changed simply because of the growth of different countries, a lot of medium sized countries in the world are now growing a good deal faster than the western democracies. Once you become richer, you become more influential and more powerful. The world isn’t only about money, and I set out all sorts of things we have in this country that don’t relate to money. But when you become a richer nation, you become a more powerful nation, so the world is changing.
AMOL RAJAN
One of those giant nations, the giant power, a great power, which is not a democracy, is China. Do you think we’re getting China right? Do you think our approach to China is a healthy one? Do you think we’re ready for a world in which China is as dominant as it is today?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
It’s a very difficult question and to be absolutely honest, I’m not sure of the right answer to that question of how ready we are. I think a lot of work has been done, particularly to protect us against things like cyber crime and to protect us against China appropriating technology that is legitimately British. But what if you want a safe world in the future must be the primary aim of diplomacy. Primary aim of diplomacy would be to make sure that China and America may be opponents, but they don’t become enemies, and they don’t go to war. That must be the primary aim of diplomacy, and I think we have a role to play in that, and I think we should endeavour to play it.
One of the things I think we would be wise to build up in the next few years, we’re no longer the great military power that we were, and we can’t afford to be, but we’re not insignificant. But in terms of soft power, I think we can build up our soft power. I think we can build up our diplomacy. I think we can often play a very valuable role in changing policy. Which is best in terms of leadership, winning a war or stopping a war in the first place? Good question, isn’t it? I think if you can stop a war in the first place, that’s fantastic, and we can play a part in all that, but we’re going to have to watch what is happening with democracy and autocracy, because the balance is changing and changing more quickly than most people realise.
The main point about the autocratic nations, China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, Nicaragua, Venezuela and many others, there must be about 40 nations in the world, something approximately who are autocratic or neo-autocratic. That’s one fifth, over a fifth of the nations around the whole world. As they grow, democracy has been shrinking. People don’t I think focus on it, but democracy has shrunk in every one of the last 18 years. We thought, after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the fall of the Berlin Wall, that democracy had won the battle of ideas, but we haven’t. Autocracy has come roaring back in the last 15, 16, 17, 18 years, and we have to be aware of that danger, and aware of the dangers that could arise from it, which are many and various.
AMOL RAJAN
Is autocracy everywhere wrong?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
It’s difficult to tell. I wouldn’t like it anywhere, because it restrains human liberty and human freedom. I think one thing our country has stood for is liberty and freedom, freedom of action, freedom of thought, freedom of religion. You don’t get that in autocracies. So I think there are bad aspects of autocracy. Whether they’re bad in every respect is a more debatable point, but if you believe in freedom and liberty, then you don’t want autocracies.
But there’s a real danger here, let me give you a practical illustration. Let us suppose that the American President ceases to be active alongside Ukraine. Let us suppose Germany ceases to be active alongside Ukraine, and the Europeans pull back, and Ukraine loses, and Russia wins. Is that the end of the matter? No, it isn’t. Because for every event, there is a consequence. Now if Russia wins, they may not be immediately in a position to go after Moldova or other nations, because they will have been badly damaged by the war that there’s just been. But let’s assume Russia wins. How does the world see that? They will see that the West has funked and failed to protect a democracy, a big democracy, in Europe of all places, from an autocracy. Now, what does that mean for the perception of America? They haven’t prevailed. China will notice that. Will it encourage China to think, aha, we may be being too timid about whether we go into Taiwan, maybe America will do nothing about that either. And of course, what happens to the allies of the West? What happens in Asia, to Japan, to South Korea, to the Philippines, strong allies of the West, and they will see the West has funked it. What do they do? Do they decide we’re safer to line up behind China rather than the West? Or do they say, then we had better be prepared to protect ourselves better and start moving towards nuclear capability? So you get suddenly a much more dangerous world. For everything that happens, there is a consequence, and we need to think through what the consequences are. Those are two illustrations I gave you. I could give you 20 others.
AMOL RAJAN
So if the war in Ukraine is going to end by some sort of political settlement, a lot of people would say Ukraine’s land has been taken by violence, it’s been taken by force. Why should they give up an inch of land to what many people would say is a dictator or an autocrat?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
I would agree with that. That’s why I think Russia needs to be defeated, and that’s why I think the West needs to continue its support of Ukraine, so that they have the capacity to defeat them.
AMOL RAJAN
But do you think the West has the will to do that based on what you see right now looking around the world?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
I hope they have. I’m alarmed at the position of one or two Western nations. I’m alarmed at the possibility that America might decide that Ukraine is not a strategic interest, because she certainly is, to the position of the United States and the world. I think we should argue for the fact that we as a nation, should argue for the fact that she is and we should try and lead people into believing that it is right for us to defend Ukraine, because you are defending freedom against autocracy, and if you begin to weaken and lose on a mega scale, for this would be a massive setback, unlike anything we’ve seen before, then there will be a price to pay for that, and it may be a price we don’t wish to pay.
AMOL RAJAN
Talking really about a new world order in which democracy is, to some extent, receding and autocracy is rising. What’s really striking is where that democratic recession, as some people have called it, comes from. Because around the world today, many young people are losing faith in democracy. If you look at the support for AFD in Germany, if you look at the support for Marine Le Pen in France, if you look at the support for Javier Millais in Argentina, a lot of these people are getting their support from those under 30. Look at what’s happening, as you say to real wages over last 20 years. Can you really blame those young people?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
No, I don’t, but you can’t expect these young people to have a strategic view of what happens if we were to lose the war, for example, and I don’t suppose they’ve even thought of it. This needs to be a matter of public debate. We need to set out for people what is at stake with Ukraine and it’s more than Russia just invading Ukraine. It’s much more important than that, because the implications of it are very wide, very varied and very bad, and so I don’t believe we’ve got a nation of youngsters who are less determined to be free than earlier generations. But I don’t think politics anywhere is widening the debate beyond the rather trivial, narrow lines of party disputes in country after country, and some disputes that hit the headlines.
AMOL RAJAN
Beyond Ukraine, there are a lot of people in this country, young adults, who might look at, I mean, you’ve been out of power for 27 years, so I’m not putting this on you, but they might look at your brand of politics, moderate in disposition, supportive of liberal democracy and capitalism, and say we’ve had that for decades in this country. What’s the reality? We’ve had completely stagnant wages. We’ve had education getting more expensive. We can’t buy a house. Why should we support the John Major brand of politics?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
Have we, do you think, have we had that brand of politics across the world since 2008?
AMOL RAJAN
You think we haven’t had the John Major style of politics?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
The record would suggest not.
AMOL RAJAN
But the coalition, which was staffed by many people who once worked for you, I think they would say that they wanted very much to…..
SIR JOHN MAJOR
The coalition, you’re right. I think the coalition were, but post coalition has been a different consequence, I think.
AMOL RAJAN
But you still think liberal democracy and capitalism can deliver for young people who’ve currently felt for a long time……
SIR JOHN MAJOR
The essential thing is that the economies begin to grow. Absolutely the essential thing is that the economies begin to grow, which is why one or two of the things the new Government are doing, I think, are wrong.
AMOL RAJAN
Such as?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
I think going for capital gains tax. If you want the economy to grow, don’t start penalising the people who provide the money for it to grow. But we’re already getting reports of extremely rich people taking their money out of the country and indeed moving out of the country themselves. That’s not what we need if we want the economy to grow and we want the living standards to rise. Should the broadest shoulders bear a larger share of the present need? Yes, I don’t have a disagreement about that, but I think at this moment, to go for capital gains tax is as unwise as providing a drunk with a case of whisky.
AMOL RAJAN
The Government says they need the money, need to raise £22 billion.
SIR JOHN MAJOR
I’ve heard that dreary tale forever, I spent time as a PPS in the treasury, I was Chief Secretary of the Treasury responsible for public expenditures. I was Chancellor and I was first Lord at the Treasury. I’ve heard that dreary tale again and again and again, and I think there’s a degree of hyperbole about what is happening at the moment, and the Labour Party have got themselves hooked on one or two silly policies before they’re really ready to pursue something more sensible.
AMOL RAJAN
We’re talking about democracy, and you’re advocating democracy over, for instance, autocracy. Isn’t one of the other reasons why faith in democracy, perhaps in this country, has suffered because, frankly, standards in public life, ethics in public life, have a lot of people would argue been in the gutter.
SIR JOHN MAJOR
I think that has played a role, yes.
AMOL RAJAN
You introduced the Nolan principles. You introduced the Committee on Standards in Public Life. You were known as the person who wanted standards to improve. What was going through your mind when you saw the revelations about, for instance, party gate, as it’s now known. That damages trust and democracy, I can tell you.
SIR JOHN MAJOR
Yes, I think we have to take standards in public life seriously. I would make some changes, I would make the powers statutory. I would give people outside Number 10 the power to institute inquiries. I would change the way inquiries were dealt with in the House of Commons. I think there’s a lot we can do to provide a much more serious examination of potential poor behaviour and actual poor behaviour.
AMOL RAJAN
I don’t think anyone would ever accuse you of being chairman of the Boris Johnson fan club, but do you think he damaged standards in public life?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
I’m not going to get into individuals. I mean, I don’t really want to spend my time looking back on what has happened. It has happened generically. I talked about Brexit, that has happened, and although I was encouraged to express why I think it was so wrong, and I still do, I don’t want a political system that continues to look back at the 80s or the 90s or the 10s. It’s yesterday, it’s gone. I want people to actually look at what the position is going to be in the future.
When did you last hear from any party a senior politician make a lengthy, detailed speech on what we needed to do to protect our place in the world and our values and our wealth 25 years from now. What are the policies we should follow? Shouldn’t we be looking at that more often than just looking back and holding inquiries and all sorts of other things that are all backward looking?
AMOL RAJAN
You talked at the beginning of this interview about a new settlement. You said we need a new settlement. What are some of the elements that you would put into that new settlement? Obviously, we need an economy that’s growing, lots of people have different ideas about that.
SIR JOHN MAJOR
That’s the core, once you get an economy that is growing, so much changes. I’m sorry to go back to the question of money, but I’m afraid money is what gives people security. Money is what gives people some enjoyment in life, rather than people who never have any. You mentioned Boris Johnson, one policy he absolutely got right was the question of levelling up. The trouble is it never got much beyond the slogan because of the lack of money, but it was exactly the right policy, and it was the right determination of what we should be doing, and that will be true in the future as well.
AMOL RAJAN
So this is a good moment to turn to, I mean, this is looking at the past, but I do it with a view to the future, is to look at the lottery. I imagine the National Lottery is one of those policies that you’re proudest of in your time in power, and the thing that’s striking about it is that the benefits were really felt a long time after you were out of power. I wonder whether or not you think that that’s an important example of how one of the problems with democracy is that you’ve got to let other people take your successes.
SIR JOHN MAJOR
Let me tell you how the lottery came about. I was Chief Secretary of the Treasury in the 80s, that is the cabinet minister who is responsible for negotiating public expenditure for each department. I noticed that the two things that the British public most enjoy, which is the arts, culture as one subject and sport as another, got petty cash from the government, absolute petty cash. They couldn’t compete with health or social security or defence, and so they’re always going to get petty cash. That’s what caused the lottery to be set up, because it was money that the Government didn’t have. It was outside the Government, and it went to the arts bodies or the other sports bodies. Do you know how much the lottery has now spent on good causes?
AMOL RAJAN
Tens of billions?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
It’s coming up to £48 billion, and there’s hardly a part of the country that hasn’t benefited from it in some way. Providing it is efficiently run by the people in charge of it, there’s no reason and left alone by successive governments – that’s important – Government should keep their noses out of it, it’s a national lottery. It’s not a government piggy bank. Providing that, there’s no reason why it shouldn’t continue. And the difference it’s made in sport and the arts, I think, is significant. So yes, I’m very pleased to have done it, and it doesn’t bother me in the slightest that I’m way out of the way by the time the benefits become clear.
AMOL RAJAN
Well, I should be clear that the only reason I ask you about anything to do with your time in power is because of the lessons for the future. I was very struck by something you said to Chris Patten after winning the election in 1992, where I think you had a conversation with him, where you both agreed that the democratic elastic, as you called it, was close to snapping. And you basically, I think, knew after winning in 1992 it was very unlikely you would win again. I just wonder if you can tell us how that conversation went and how it informed your time in Government, because specifically I think there are important lessons for the coming Parliament.
SIR JOHN MAJOR
I’ll happily do that. Chris, of course, was chairman of the party when against the expectations of the world, we won the 1992 election, a fourth successive win. But Chris lost his seat in Bath, and he came to have a drink with me in the White Room upstairs in Downing Street the next day. It was at that day that we said we thought, with a fourth successive election in a democracy, we were stretching the elastic as far as it could go, and the probability was that unless the Labour Party imploded, they would probably win the next election. I said to Chris, what would you like to do now? You have lost your seat, I can offer you three options. I will put someone in the House of Lords, and you can fight the by-election. If you’re in the Lords, I can put you in the Cabinet. The third option is you can go and govern Hong Kong. And Chris thought about it, and he said, ‘I can’t fight another by-election, it was too unpleasant in Bath that election, I can’t put my family through that again’. He was too young to go to the House of Lords he said, I will go to Hong Kong, and that is how he did.
We did think that we were aware from the moment the 1992 Parliament started that the nature of the Conservative Party in Parliament had changed. All the old people who had served in the war, or after the war, had pretty much left then, and they were a glue that kept the party really together. We had lots more young people brought up in the more dramatic policies of the 80s who came in. We thought it was very likely that we would lose, and when things began to get very sticky, I remember a conversation with Sarah Hogg, who was head of my policy unit. Well, she said, ‘the great advantage of it being likely that we will lose’, of course, we wanted to win, and we’ve been doing all we could to win, but we weren’t making any progress really, ‘is that you can do what you think is right without worrying whether it is expedient’. We were in the Cabinet Room, but I’d never forgotten that conversation.
AMOL RAJAN
Did that give you some comfort when you had to do some very difficult things economically, which in particular would have hurt the very people you went into politics to help?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
Yes, no-one has ever asked me that question before, but I’ll tell you exactly how I felt about it. The thing I hated most in politics was inflation. I had known from my childhood what life is like when the money runs out before the week runs out. I saw it at very close quarters, week after week after week. That is what happens under inflation for all sorts of families at any stage and we’d had huge inflation in the 70s and elsewhere. All my political lifetime, I’d watched governments try and get to grips with inflation and then back off, and then back off when it got too bad, and so it wasn’t killed. That was the reason for going into the Exchange Rate Mechanism, and that was the reason for staying in it when everybody was crying for us to come out of it.
We thought it would kill inflation and in the end, the way we came out was a political disaster, but it wasn’t an economic disaster. We were actually looking for a way to come out without people thinking we’d gone soft on inflation, when we were overwhelmed by the markets. It was a political disaster that never went away for the rest of the Parliament, but I simply observe in retrospect that we didn’t have inflation for nearly 20 years. It really had. I mean, the international environment changed, so that was certainly a part of it, but it really did get inflation on its knees in the way no Government had done since the Second World War.
AMOL RAJAN
We’d had inflation in this country pretty much since the war, I’m going to say the 60s or 70s.
SIR JOHN MAJOR
I grew up with it and I hated it, and I actually said that once or twice, but that was why we stuck with the policies that were hard and it was why, frustratingly for me, when I became Prime Minister, all sorts of things I’d like to do, but we were heading for a recession. The economy was in a pretty sick state on the day I became Prime Minister, and so there was no money to do those things. When I left, the money was there, but I wasn’t.
AMOL RAJAN
Tony Blair and Gordon Brown were.
SIR JOHN MAJOR
They spent some of it wisely. They didn’t spend it exactly the way I would, but there were some of his policies that I would have approved of because maybe some were my policies before his. But I think the money was used to a significant extent, wisely, but not quite as I would have used it.
AMOL RAJAN
Let me ask you some final, quickish thoughts. What’s your biggest regret with your time and power?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
It wasn’t long enough.
AMOL RAJAN
Your greatest achievement as Prime Minister?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
I think the way the economy was turned around, the Northern Ireland process, everybody said when we started that you’ll never get anywhere with this. When I went to tell John Smith about it, because in those days, there was a good deal more liaison than I think there is today between the leaders of the parties. I went to tell John Smith exactly what I was going to do with the process, and he smiled and looked quite right, very good. No votes in it, we’ll support you. And I think perhaps the lottery.
AMOL RAJAN
Your greatest hero in politics.?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
In politics, Pitt the Younger. In life, in my time, Mother Teresa, what’s hoping
AMOL RAJAN
I was hoping you would say Iain Macleod?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
It’s a toss up, I mean, Iain Macleod was the greatest orator I ever heard, a man I was completely captivated by when I was a young man, his speeches were magnificent. They always included values as well as policies, but he could be quite brutal to his opponents. He had a sort of paralysis of the neck, which meant he held his head slightly on one side, and he was very bald, and he had this voice like a great bell, and it was absolutely hypnotic. I think the fact that his head was so unmoving was part of the hypnosis.
AMOL RAJAN
What’s your advice to someone willing to go into politics today?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
Oh do. I mean, if people believe they can make a contribution to politics, I think they should, particularly young people. It ought not just to be left to people who spend 15 minutes to learn the political landscape and then go into politics. I want people to go into politics who care about the country, who would like to do something for the country. I’d certainly like more young people to do it, because we need young people to become engaged. If they get disengaged from democracy, we are in deep trouble.
AMOL RAJAN
Are you concerned about the calibre of people going into politics today? Do you think it’s changed in a bad way?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
I’ve not been in the House of Commons, so it’s difficult to say. But I think the range of people going in there has changed on both sides. The Conservative Party had less people from the armed forces who used to have a good knowledge of it, and less people from business, and I think that is a loss for them. You’d be surprised to hear me say this, but with the Labour Party, I think when they moved away from the traditional working class Labour member, who lived in his community, suffered the same hardships as his community and knew it from back to front, and he was replaced by students with degrees and left wing instincts, I think that was a loss to the Labour Party and to the nature of the House of Commons.
AMOL RAJAN
Just a few more. When did you last cry?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
Watching the Paralympics. The Paralympic swimmers was when I last cried, the bravery that they have had to live through and the work to get there, and the number of people who have had to support them so they could get there. I think it’s immensely moving that they have actually been so brave as to give such dedication to their sports that they actually got to the Olympics. I just am full of admiration.
AMOL RAJAN
What’s your guilty pleasure?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
Lemon Drops. Lemon Drop martinis, preferably in the plural.
AMOL RAJAN
I don’t think I know what a lemon drop martini is.
SIR JOHN MAJOR
Then your life needs to be enhanced!
AMOL RAJAN
Last couple. How would you like to be remembered?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
Fondly.
AMOL RAJAN
What would you still like to achieve?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
I think I’d like to live long enough to see my country at ease with itself.
AMOL RAJAN
I am going to ask you some nostalgic questions. Now, indulge me, we’ve talked about the future, and I want to talk about this. Ken Clarke said of you on Radio Four recently, he said he was very, very fond of you, great friends, but it was always a cause of regret to him that the thing about Sir John is he just never seemed to enjoy being Prime Minister. Ken Clarke said this was because you were very, very concerned, perhaps for understandable reasons, in particular, with what the press said. I want to ask you about those two things. Did you ever enjoy being Prime Minister, and were you too concerned about the press?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
On the latter part, the answer is probably yes. Ken knows me very well, also Douglas Hurd, so I accept that criticism, probably true. All I can say is, today people need be less concerned, because the press is less powerful than it was. They, of course, now have to deal with social media, which is an infinitely worse problem for them. Did I ever enjoy being Prime Minister? Yes, I did. I enjoyed bits of it. I didn’t enjoy all of it, I didn’t enjoy the unpleasant things you have to do, the unpleasant things that come up and hit you and I don’t think any Prime Minister does. So I don’t think I was unique in that.
AMOL RAJAN
If you could go back and relive one moment from your time in power, what would that one moment be?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
I think the 50th anniversary of the ending of the war. We were in France, with people from countries who had all fought in the coalition. We were at Arromanches, with the Queen, Prince Philip, heads of Governments from all over the place, and we were watching from on high the veterans marching on the sands at Arromanches. We thought they’d march for about an hour, smart blazers and trousers, with rows of medals and berets. They came and they came and they came, and it went on and on and on. There were tens of thousands of them, infinitely more than anyone could possibly have imagined. They marched even as the tide came in and began to come over their boots and up over their ankles, they just came on marching. And they were all very elderly by definition, and it was the most remarkable sight. And you really had a glimpse of what our country is really about. I think if I had one moment to relive that would be it.
AMOL RAJAN
When it all became too much, the stresses, the strains, the headlines, the pressure, was there somewhere that you found refuge?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
The Oval. It’s been my spiritual home since the early 1950s and I could always go to the Oval, switch off, watch some cricket. It didn’t have to be high class cricket, it might have been a junior Surrey team or something of that sort. But there’s something for me when I go to the Oval that takes me back to my youth, when I first used to sit there with a score book, a Tizer and sandwiches. It’s just a complete change, so that was my refuge.
AMOL RAJAN
Well, Sir John, this is the John Major room at the Oval, and it’s impossible not to wonder what the boy from Brixton would have made of the idea of you having a room at the Oval and a portrait of yourself as Prime Minister here.
SIR JOHN MAJOR
Well, I think he’d have been surprised.
AMOL RAJAN
He’d been surprised that you’ve got the same tie on after 30 years as well! But what’s the story behind this bat as well?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
This is a Jack Hobbs bat and there’s a story behind that. I had just finished Prime Minister’s Questions and one of the messengers came in to see me and said ’there’s a very elderly lady outside who says she must see you, shall I tell her to go away?’ I said, ‘no, bring her in’. She came in, and she was very elderly and very small, and she was clutching a large brown paper parcel, and she introduced herself, and she said to me, I’d like to give you this, but I would like a promise from you that you will never give it away or sell it. I wasn’t sure what it was, but she didn’t look as though she was deranged, she looked perfectly genuine. So I made that promise, and she gave it to me and I unwrapped it, and it was a Jack Hobbs bat. It’s a bat with which he scored a century in the early part of the 1900s and it had been given to this elderly lady as a little girl, and she had no-one to leave it to, and so she came to the House of Commons to give it to me. I thought, I won’t be here forever, but the bat should go back to its natural home. So it is here in this room, and here it will remain.
AMOL RAJAN
Given this room is your room, it’s the John Major room, do you get to choose which of the Surrey icons are along here?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
I do, everyone here was personally chosen by me. This is Billy Beldham, or silver Billy Beldham as he was called, and he was a great batsman in the early nineteenth century. His main period was 1800 to 1820, but he played cricket much longer than that. The point about Billy Beldham is not just that he was a good batsman, he was the first batsman not just to swing across the line, but to play down the line on pitted and horrible pitches. People tended to hang back and swing to leg, he didn’t, he learned that it was fruitful to play forward and hit the ball in the V.
AMOL RAJAN
Which is a lesson he obviously passed on to his great successor, Jack Hobbs, arguably the greatest opening batsman of them all.
SIR JOHN MAJOR
He would certainly be my choice and the longevity of his career is astonishing.
AMOL RAJAN
Hobbs played on it well over the age of 40 didn’t he?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
He scored 197 first class hundreds and he scored 100 of them after the age of 40. Don’t forget, he lost four years to the First World War, so he scored 61,00 ofirst class runs. Nobody else is remotely near it.
AMOL RAJAN
Tell you what, I’ve just hit my 40s. Do you think I’m about to enter my peak period?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
I think it’s undoubtedly so.
AMOL RAJAN
This is?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
This is Peter May, who when I was a boy was the finest batsman in England.
AMOL RAJAN
Did you watch him?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
Oh, gosh, yes.
AMOL RAJAN
Here?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
Indeed. He got me in huge trouble once. I was here watching and I was a huge admirer of Peter, he was my great hero as a boy. My father had only one possession of any value at all, that was a gold stopwatch that he’d been given at some stage during his music hall career, and I asked if I could borrow the stopwatch to time how long it took from Peter May hitting the ball on the on side, which was his great shot at the boundary. He lent it to me, and I was holding it like this to time how long it took and I pressed the button at the top, and it slipped out of my hands and crashed down on the then stone floor underneath the wooden benches, and it was an ex watch.
AMOL RAJAN
What did your father make of that?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
Well, I was distraught, because I knew how much it mattered to him, and I was only 12 or so, 13, perhaps. I took it home and I showed it to him like this, and he was nearly blind then but he could feel it and see it well enough. And all he said was ‘tell me all you can about this Peter May’, it was the only thing he said, no reproach, he just wanted to know why I cared so much about Peter May, why I wanted to time how long it took the ball to hit the boundary from leaving his bat.
AMOL RAJAN
Sounds like a wonderful father. I’ll tell you what, with that follow through, he’d be very happy and at home in the modern game, wouldn’t he?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
Certainly would. He was a powerful batsman. He didn’t often hit sixes, but he could and very big sixes.
AMOL RAJAN
Let’s go and watch some cricket.
-
Sir John Major’s Interview on BBC Radio 4’s Westminster Hour – 26 February 2023
The text of Sir John Major’s interview on BBC Radio 4’s Westminster Hour on 26 February 2023. The interview was broadcast over the programme in two separate parts.
PART ONE
CAROLYN QUINN
[Asked Sir John Major for his views on the Northern Ireland deal]
SIR JOHN MAJOR
As far as trade is concerned, the deal that Mr. Johnson and Lord Frost did was pretty poor. It was a pretty poor negotiation and after having regarded it as a triumph and taking the plaudits for it, it was barely weeks before they were denouncing it, but of course blaming the European Union for it. So there is a need for some reform of the agreement. The European Union are offering a good deal of reform and the UK have made some helpful suggestions about red and green exit points for trade for example.
CAROLYN QUINN
[Commented that the DUP wanted the protocol rewritten]
SIR JOHN MAJOR
It depends exactly what they mean by that, it’s not at all clear to me what they mean. But what is actually turning out to be a particularly difficult point is the question of what happens with trade disputes. The European Union insists that the European Court of Justice should be involved and that is a neuralgic point for many Members of Parliament in the UK, particularly the European Research Group wing of the Tory party, and also for the DUP. This neuralgic situation has left Northern Ireland without an executive and without a power sharing assembly for well over a year, and it could be a good deal longer.
Trade isn’t the only problem in Northern Ireland, they’ve got real problems with health, with education, with all sorts of other things and they need that executive back in operation. The extent to which the European Court of Justice would be involved would be in determining disputes between companies, they’re not going to overturn the constitution. Their involvement would be tiny, partial and occasional. If we can get in a reform all the trade changes we need, for the easier access for trade into Northern Ireland, then the fact that there will be a minute occasional involvement of the European Court of Justice really ought not to stop an agreement being made. They talk of democracy, democracy is thrown away when that assembly is not sitting. We need them back.
———-
PART TWO
CAROLYN QUINN
[Commented that she had joined Westminster as a very junior reporter back in 1989, seeing the last moments of Margaret Thatcher’s administration, but it was John Major who was the first Prime Minister she interviewed and it was nice to interview him again. She put to him that back in the 1990s, there was still a generation in Parliament who had been shaped by the Second World War]
SIR JOHN MAJOR
Those politicians had served in a war and it had been the biggest scar on their lives, as it was for everybody who was alive at that time. They saw the importance of the United Kingdom ensuring, with its partners across Europe, that there would never again be a war like that. That was the great impetus to join the European Union at the time. Now as the years have gone by that impetus has faded and different arguments took hold about Europe about bureaucracy and all sorts of things which are important in themselves but they’re not as important as peace. The 1980s became quite an ideological age on both sides of the political fence and that carried through into the 90s with those who came into Parliament, and it’s followed on. So even today you have, in both the Conservative Party and the Labour Party, an ideological fringe to those two parties that are unduly significant and that is something that has changed.
CAROLYN QUINN
[Commented that Sir John said Brexit was a mistake and asked is this a big difference in politics between now and then?]
SIR JOHN MAJOR
Beyond any shadow of doubt. It’s not just that we left Europe, it was the nature of the referendum, the divisions it created, the manner in which we left Europe and the way in which the public were fed promises which have proved to be wholly unfounded. I anxiously await for the benefits of Brexit as yet, except in small areas, been unable to find them. The land of milk and honey that was held out by the Brexiteers has so far proved to be sour vinegar, rather than milk and honey. I find it personally quite astonishing that those people who made so many promises about Brexit haven’t retreated in their corners and kept silent about it rather than boasting about the fact they got Brexit done.
CAROLYN QUINN
[Asked if they would be listening saying ‘there he goes again, things will get better’]
SIR JOHN MAJOR
I know, that’s their line. But how long, this life, the next life, my grandson’s life? Who knows? They cannot answer.
CAROLYN QUINN
[Asked about the current Conservative leader who is a Brexiteer and decided that Brexit would work]
SIR JOHN MAJOR
He did and we take a different view on that. But I think in other things he’s done a great deal to restore respect for our country and I think he is a serious politician. He seriously considers policy and policy is more important to him than publicity and that is a very welcome change. I think he’s honest and reliable, as indeed I think the Leader of the Opposition is and I think that is a very helpful development for Britain to recover.
CAROLYN QUINN
[Asked about public trust in politicians and whether there is a problem with integrity in politics]
SIR JOHN MAJOR
It’s an ongoing problem with integrity and politics. The public have always, and I think this is rather healthy, had a scepticism of politicians and authority generally, but not as seriously as we see it now. There is undoubtedly a real problem. I think it comes from two or three different things. Firstly, for 15 years people are disillusioned because since the 2007 financial crash, the vast majority of people have seen no increase in their net disposable income at all and that is unprecedented. At the same time, other people have made a great deal of money and that must really hurt to those who are now in work but having to go to food banks which is intolerable in a nation like ours.
Then there’s the question you touched on of trust and integrity. I think that has been damaged by actions over the past two or three years, I don’t think I need to enumerate them as I think all your listeners will know exactly what I’m talking about. But it is damaging, if trust is not exercised where people are elected to look after the interests of others, then it will have a very bad effect on the perception of Parliament. You mentioned the word sleaze, there’s a distinction between sleaze in terms of things like the government’s behaviour on patronage or on party political donations, and sleaze if it is the individual misdemeanour of individual Members of Parliament and I think that was the predominant problem we had in the 1990s.
Then there is one great gap in politics which I’m astonished nobody has pointed out. Many of the people on one wing of the Conservative Party argue very strongly for a low tax Singapore on Thames type economy and yet the Conservative Party are also fighting to keep hold of the red wall seats. The red wall seats want a vast amount of more public expenditure because that is the only thing that is going to cure grievances that have built up under governments of different parties and all parties over the last 40 or 50 years.
We have to make a choice. It is appalling that some of the deprived areas of the United Kingdom, the fifth or sixth richest nation in the world, that some people are living in worse conditions that you can find almost anywhere in Europe. That is not a success for governments, not just this government, that is not a success for governments over the last 50 years. And it is incumbent upon the government to take levelling up seriously. I think I will put it this way, dealing with the people left behind. Dealing with that particular problem by levelling up is as big an issue as setting up the National Health Service. It will take more than a decade, more than two decades. The party that really puts its shoulder to that wheel will learn a great deal of credit for itself, for politics generally, for the country and also for what is right.
-
Sir John Major’s Speech at the National Cathedrals Conference – 16 May 2022
The speech made by Sir John Major at the National Cathedrals Conference held at Newcastle Cathedral on Monday 16 May 2022.
DIFFERENT COUNTRY, DIFFERENT CHURCH
The theme of your Conference – “Different Country, Different Church” – is our national story through the ages. Both Church and Country have always evolved, but rarely as fast as now. I am now out of public life, away from partisan influences but, as an observer, would like to offer some thoughts about our future.
THE CHURCH
Firstly, the Church.
Our Church faces many dilemmas, in a society that has grown to distrust authority, and is drifting to secularity.
There are those in our nation who prize celebrity, wealth and fame more than values once believed to be inviolate.
This cultural change presents an extraordinary challenge to a Church that does have eternal values: it is both a threat and an opportunity. But – if the opportunity is to be taken – the Church must be bold in its actions, and outspoken about its concerns.
My father was elderly when I was born and, from the time I was nine years old, mostly bedridden. My mother cared for him, and rarely left our home.
But the Church came to us in the form of our local Vicar, the kind and gentle J. Franklin Cheyne. My elderly and sick parents lived by the precept that God was in our house every day, and so we had no need to attend his once a week.
This was a trite and self-serving excuse, but The Reverend Cheyne smiled and taught me, as a boy, that our Church is greater than the size of its congregations. People who are not regular church-goers can still – and do – live by Christian principles.
Some people turn away from religion because, as someone put it to me, “Science is daily destroying the biblical bases of faith”.
But science can’t replace faith. It can’t remove the hope and the comfort that a “Perfect Being” can exist. This is a belief shared with other faiths. Man will cling to that hope, until the last of our kind is extinct.
The Reverend Cheyne told me that: “The best argument”, for Christ’s divinity, “is that without the support of secular power, he changed the whole world”. So he did – so far, for two thousand years. No military conqueror has ever made such a mark on our lives – nor ever will.
And if biblical stories, often in parable form, seem unrealistic to our modern ears, the lessons they teach, and the ideals they preach, are not: they continue to appeal to the better selves within us. They are a protection against the worst our material world can throw at us.
“The Kingdom of God”, we are told, “is within you.” We should be grateful for that: the alternative is selfishness, disorder and the advance of savagery.
In our world of change, the Church offers stability. Many changes are beneficial – but not all of them. Sometimes change leaves values behind.
And, in the bustle of change, where stands happiness? What value is put on peace of mind?
Should we stand by silently when vile opinion is lauded; when truth is disposable: when authority is mocked; when tradition is trashed; when bad men hold sway in many countries?
I think not. It may be unfashionable to speak of values, but it should not be. They should never be cast aside.
Our churches today may be fewer in number, and less full than in years past, but their pulpits still have a distinctive voice.
Millions of people wish to hear that voice used loudly, clearly, and often – either to uplift hearts and smooth away despair or, where necessary, to speak out on issues that depress or oppress our fellow citizens.
A single voice can easily be shouted down – but the Church cannot.
Some argue that the Church should “keep out of politics”, and stick to promoting faith and filling their pews. If by “politics” the critics mean partisan Party politics, I agree. But if they mean politics in its wider sense, then I do not agree.
The Church mustn’t be pushed into the side lines of life. It must be alive in our communities. In our discourse. In our daily concerns. Politics is about how we live.
That cannot – and should not – be ignored by the Church.
Is not the state of our nation – politics? Are not our values – politics? How can it possibly be argued that the Church should be silent on these issues?
Is not poverty about politics? Yes, it is – and surely the Church must speak about that too. Jesus most certainly did.
And, if any part of our nation is lost or forgotten by authority, then surely the Church should be a voice for the weak and the voiceless.
And, above all, the Church must remain the ultimate sanctuary for those in despair who – in our modern world – are many in number.
What we are as a nation, and what we stand for, is a legitimate issue for the voice of the Church to be heard, and that voice must carry to the faithless as well as the faithful.
But, if it is to deliver its message, the Church cannot ignore its own problems. I won’t trespass upon matters of conscience, only on practical issues.
Many parishes face financial challenges, and there is doubt around whether a nationwide parochial system can be sustained.
It is a herculean task. The Church of England – with its Cathedrals and Parish Churches – is responsible for a very large part of our architectural and cultural heritage, including no less than 45% of all Grade 1 listed buildings.
The lion’s share of the cost of maintaining this huge community asset falls on the diminishing number of regular worshippers. This is unjust.
Some argue that it may be necessary to close churches, reduce the number of stipendiary clergy, and sell assets. I do hope not.
It would be a grim outlook, and I hope Christians will rally to prevent it. Churches are not only part of our lives – they are also an important part of our landscape. If lost, we would all be the poorer. And by “we” I don’t mean church-goers only – I mean everyone.
I live in Eastern England, and John Betjeman’s famous lines come to mind:
“What would you be, you wide East Anglian sky
Without church towers to recognise you by?”Whether we choose to acknowledge it or not, the Church is always there when needed. And it is more than a place of worship. It is where we may seek the comfort of community; of companionship; of solace – and of sanctuary.
Often silently, perhaps subliminally, the Church is a guide to our lives and our conscience.
We should be grateful that it is, and do everything we can to protect its place in our society.
OUR COUNTRY
Let me turn to the future of our country.
First, I should set out some context. We are an island geographically, but in no other way. Our lives are inter-connected with, and affected by, the wider world. We have alliances for security, and trade deals for economic welfare.
At the moment, our world is not in a state of grace: not every nation is led by men or women of good intent. Democracy has fallen back: freedom – or freedom of religion – has not grown and spread as we would wish.
We live in uncertain times. Times in which – if good men are complacent – bad men will take advantage.
In countries where democracy is absent, or weak – or merely under strain – nationalist and populist sentiment has taken root, and grown. Populism is self-interested and can be unscrupulous.
It makes promises that can’t be kept; creates division; scapegoats minorities; and controls or threatens or undermines the judiciary.
Populist leaders favour obedience over ability. Acolytes and sycophants are rewarded. Dissenters are abused and crushed. Where possible, the electoral system is perverted.
All this is a corruption of a free society, and even the strongest democracy must guard against it.
In our country, we view authoritarian governments with distaste and rejection. They are alien to our way of life and our instincts for freedom. But not everyone feels the same.
People know that authoritarian rule can bring tyranny and a loss of freedom. But millions also see that economic growth in China – with her long history of autocratic rule – has improved living standards more rapidly than in any democracy.
To those who are hungry or oppressed, or homeless, or jobless, that is attractive. If their bellies are full, and there are clothes upon their backs, their lives are improving – and millions prize that above the individual freedoms that characterise the Western democracies.
Nor are democracies always their own best advocates. In America, the Statue of Liberty bears the inspiring inscription “Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses”. For generations America accepted migrants. More recently, they built a wall to keep them out.
In England, in 1763, Lord Chancellor Henley said: “If a man steps foot in England, he is a free man.” Today, under the pressure of numbers, if that man is a refugee in a rubber boat he receives a chilly welcome, and the threat of deportation to Rwanda.
I cannot believe that is the right way forward: such a policy is not a moral advance, and I hope the Government will look again.
We need a policy that is Europe-wide, to contain people smuggling, and help the miserable and unfortunate victims of this trade.
I do understand the Government’s difficulties, which are real. But – however you look at this policy – it is wrong to forcibly transport people to a far-away land, when all that most are seeking is a better life.
I hope – in their own interests – the whole Cabinet will reject this policy. If they do not, they will stain not only their own reputation, but that of the entire Government – and, most of all, our country – for a very long time.
Our shortcomings may be far less than others, but pragmatic self-interest tells us that we cannot simply ignore autocracies: on arms control; on climate change; on counter terrorism; democracies and autocracies must work together or we will all lose.
The more we divide into tribes, the more likely it is we will come to blows.
Thirty years ago, we glimpsed a better world. The Soviet Union imploded. Germany re-united. Apartheid ended. Democracy spread across Eastern Europe. The Liberal Order was dominant.
It looked as though our values of democracy – of freedom of thought and deed – had won the battle of ideas, and that our way of life would become accepted as the general ideal. It was a time of hope.
We were naïve. Complacent. Wrong. We forgot the human capacity for folly. We see that now in Ukraine. Freedom needs eternal vigilance. Democracy has to be protected.
If it is not, it can be overwhelmed – value by value, freedom by freedom, country by country.
* * * * *
In the UK, two blockbusting events will affect our future: Brexit and Covid.
Brexit has not presented Britain’s best face to the world. It is our modern day break with Rome – in this instance, the Treaty of Rome – and it will take years for all the implications to become apparent. Some will be positive; far more will not.
Some applaud Brexit for reasons of democracy and sovereignty. Others deplore it on economic and social grounds. The debate was rancorous, and factually dubious.
Brexit divided our four nations and our politics, as well as family from family, and friend from friend. If Scotland and Northern Ireland secede from the UK, Brexit must bear a part of that blame.
The severity of Covid was surpassed only by Spanish Flu a century ago. Like Brexit, Covid was enormously expensive.
I have made no secret that I believe that leaving the European Union will – indeed, has – weakened our country and damaged our future. But I am a realist.
It may not be conceivable to re-enter the Union for many years.
An early attempt to do so would fail, and worsen the ruptures in our national politics system. Nor could we re-join upon the favourable terms we once enjoyed.
But attitudes to Europe may change when today’s young, in due time, govern our nation. All the evidence suggests they are overwhelmingly pro-European.
If the promised benefits of leaving continue to be elusive – if not all-but-invisible – their resolve to re-join may be strengthened.
Until then, we must try to restore links with our neighbours where it is sensible to do so, and otherwise live with the consequences of our referendum decision.
Brexit is emphatically not done. The effects of breaking away from the richest free trade market in history will seep out, year upon year, for a very long time.
As for Covid, the Government acted boldly in setting up furlough payments; and swiftly to ensure the vaccine roll-out.
But there remain valid questions to be answered about advice to the public; wasteful expenditure; a lack of control over fraud; the decision to transfer elderly patients from hospital to care homes; and the slipshod manner of awarding Covid-related contracts.
A Public Inquiry has been promised, and should not be delayed. At the very least, the country deserves an interim Report within this Parliament.
Between them, Brexit and Covid have driven our national debt to previously unknown heights.
The cost of Covid is estimated as equivalent to one quarter of the total cost of the Second World War. Over time, estimates suggest that the cost of Brexit could be higher yet.
It took decades to repay the debts of War, and it will take many years to repay the cost of Brexit and Covid.
This raises an unwelcome question. How can we pay for future policy ambitions? Demography ensures that the mega-budgets – of health, education, and social care – will increase year on year. Our national security ensures that the cost of defence will rise too.
So will the costs of climate change, and the plans to “level up” communities to end historic injustices.
Some people deny the existence of climate change with the same fervour with which our predecessors once insisted the world was flat.
But the evidence can’t be put aside.
Sea levels are rising on over 70% of the earth’s surface. Storms, hurricanes and floods are increasing in number and severity. The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet. Across the globe, the weather is freakily unpredictable.
We are losing whole species of plants, animals, insects. We all know the litany.
Can we ignore this? No. Can any one nation overcome this alone? No, again. Dare we leave this for the next generation? No. It would be wrong in principle and – in any event – it may, by then, be too late, and the burden too great.
*****
Nor can “Levelling Up” be ignored. There are serious inequalities in our United Kingdom.
For many years, Governments comforted themselves that – if our country was doing well – wealth would “trickle down” to lift up the poorest: it hasn’t done so. Of course, there has been improvement – but not enough.
In times of austerity, we are told that we are “all in it together”. If so, then logically, we should “all be in it together” in times of prosperity.I hope the Government will devise a policy that encourages “trickle down” and shares national growth more fairly.
Don’t misunderstand me. I certainly don’t favour some “bash the rich” policy. Wealth in our country is important to us all. We should welcome investors and innovators – as job creators, as philanthropists, as tax-payers.
But, as a nation, we must be fairer in distributing the fruits of national growth.
You will all remember the “key” workers, for whom we stood applauding on our doorsteps during the Covid crisis. They were mostly poorly paid. There was no “trickle down” to them – and yet it was they upon whom we relied in a crisis.
Our values need “Levelling Up” as well as our communities.
But we must be realistic. “Levelling Up” will take many Parliaments to complete, and will only succeed if future governments buy into the concept and the cost.
How can all this be paid for? There are options.
It could, over time, be met by above average growth in our economy. This is possible, but cannot be relied upon.
If growth is insufficient, which experience suggests is probable, the cost can only be met by higher taxes, or more borrowing or cuts in other budgets.
It is an unwelcome truth that lower taxes for everyone – and higher spending – do not go together. Hard choices must be made.
And some hard choices must be made without delay, as inflation rises – especially on food and fuel – while growth falls, and stagflation threatens.
Many people will be utterly unable to meet the bills that lie ahead. Help must come. And I hope it will come soon.
As it does, it will help bring trust and respect back to our politics: electors must have trust in The State, The Government, and the independence and impartiality of The Law.
But, if the nation is to be loyal to The State, The State must be loyal to the people – and that is why the provision of quality public services is so important.
Everyone needs to believe that The State cares about them – and not just the interests of the powerful, the motivators, and the elite.
If the streets are unsafe, do the people who live in them believe The State is invested in them?
If the week lasts longer than the money, do the penniless believe The State cares about them?
If children attend a poor school, with disillusioned teachers, do the children or the teachers feel protected and valued by The State? It is so important that they do.
In our democracy we rely upon one another in nearly every aspect of our lives. We need to respect and protect those with whom we share a common dependence.
* * * * *
There is much that is good in our way of life that no previous generation has enjoyed. Personally, I know of nowhere else I would prefer to live.
Every day, medical science is improving treatment of cancer and blood diseases. New knees and new hips can help those crippled with pain. The cure of cataracts can restore sight.
Hope is on the horizon for sufferers of Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s – not an outright cure, perhaps, but an ability to diagnose them early, and stop them in their tracks.
We are not short of good Samaritans. The caring professions do not walk by on the other side. Nor do the millions who work for charities, or volunteer for them, or donate to them.
There is hope in two irresistible social changes. The rise of women to prominence in nearly every field of endeavour is as staggering as it is overdue.
We are, at last, utilising the skills of half our nation that were hidden away for far too long.
It is odd, isn’t it? Throughout the ages men have trusted our most treasured possessions – our children – to women. But we have not trusted women to contribute more widely to society and, at times, have positively prevented them from doing so.
Yet they bring a moderating and restraining force, to a world that is in need of these attributes.
There is another human influence I wish to mention as an overall force for good: the young. They have grown up in a different world to their elders. They think differently. They are unburdened by old shibboleths.
We may be wary of their music. Their dress-down style. Their habit of cutting holes in the knees of new jeans for the sake of fashion. I have no doubt that past generations have baffled their parents in similar ways.
The legacy we leave our young includes many difficulties but – from all I have seen – this is a good generation. I have high hopes for them.
I have enough confidence to believe that, however much longer I live, my country will be in very good hands with our young.
And, beyond that – for me, as a Christian – the greatest consolation is that … one day … I shall be in better hands still.
Both our Country and our Church are more precious to our very being than most either acknowledge or realise. Are they “Different” now than in the past? Yes. Will they be “Different” in the future? Of course. For – as the world around us changes – so, too, will they.
But our Country and our Church are eternal. And my hope is they will always remain shining beacons of goodness and decency in a world that – at the moment – is badly in need of both.
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Sir John Major’s Interview on BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme – 6 November 2021
The transcript of the interview conducted by Nick Robinson on BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme on 6 November 2021.
Nick Robinson
Good morning to you.
Sir John Major
Good morning, Nick.
Nick Robinson
Sir John, what do you say to those listening who may be a little weary of the story? They may say, look, a mistake was made, a mistake was acknowledged, a u-turn was executed. The MP in question has now quit the House of Commons. There is nothing left to say.
Sir John Major
I really wouldn’t agree with that. A mistake certainly was made and I think rather a bad mistake. The problem is that it isn’t a mistake on its own. There have been a whole series of missteps, so I think it’s necessary to address them now in order to put them right in the future, because if it continues in the way it is now it’ll be very damaging for Parliament, for the country and certainly for the Conservative Government.
I have been a Conservative all my life Nick and if I’m concerned about how the government is behaving, I suspect lots of other people are as well. It seems to me as a lifelong Conservative that much of what they’re doing is very unconservative in its behaviour. There are many strands to this that go way beyond the Standards Committee imbroglio over the last few days. There’s a general whiff of ‘we are the masters now’ about their behaviour and I think this is cutting through to the public. It has to stop and it has to stop soon.
Nick Robinson
Now, let me put to you this specific point made by Lord Evans, now chairman of that committee on standards in public life, he said Britain could slip into being a corrupt country. Do you believe that’s a possibility?
Sir John Major
Well, it depends on your definition of corruptness. If you mean necessarily financially corrupt on a large scale, well I think we have a long way to go before we do that. Standards in public life generally, I think, and I don’t just mean in the political sphere but across the whole of public life, are as high I think, as anyone in Europe or elsewhere. But if you mean in terms of other aspects of behaviour, then I have a considerable amount of sympathy with what Lord Evans has said.
What has been happening is damaging at home and to our reputation overseas and that matters. Our reputation overseas matters to us and it should. Let me take a few illustrations, I’ll start with the Standard Commissioner’s report. I think the way the government handled that was shameful and wrong and unworthy of this, or indeed any, Government. It also had the effect of trashing the reputation of Parliament. A number of Conservative MPs rebelled and very well done them, I wish more had had the courage to do so and I suspect they will in future because they were put in a dreadful position by the Prime Minister.
But there’s a bigger point. Parliament cannot be the plaything of any Prime Minister or indeed any government. This government has done a number of things that concern me deeply. They have broken the law, I have in mind the illegal prorogation of Parliament over which I went to the Supreme Court. They have broken treaties, I have in mind the Northern Ireland protocol, they have broken their word on many occasions. The one that I find most odious was the cut to overseas aid, which was a statutory requirement and was cut long before Parliament gave permission for it. Whenever they run up against difficulties with anybody, whether it is the Supreme Court, the Electoral Commission, the BBC, they react not with an understanding, not trying to placate what has gone wrong, but actually in rather a hostile fashion. That’s why I say it is profoundly unconservative and something I dislike intensely.
Nick Robinson
I want to come to some of the examples you’ve raised. I want to put to you in a second the fact that many people think you are still fighting an old battle, the battle over Brexit in what you’ve said. But before we move to those things, let me ask you specifically about this week, something you said was shameful and wrong. Do you blame the Chief Whip, do you blame the leader of the House of Commons, Jacob Rees Mogg. And if not, who?
Sir John Major
I don’t think it’s my responsibility to apportion blame. My understanding of what happened is that the instruction came direct from the Prime Minister, that is certainly what I’m told by backbench Members of Parliament. Where the Chief Whip and the Leader of the House are certainly to blame is it is their responsibility to make sure the Prime Minister understands the mood of Parliament and plainly either they told him the mood was wrong and he brushed their concerns aside, which may have happened, or alternatively, they were not in touch with Parliament, in which case they’re certainly culpable. But I don’t know which of those options is the correct one.
Nick Robinson
We are hearing now that there is a possibility that Owen Paterson could be offered a peerage by Boris Johnson, No. 10 have neither confirmed nor denied it. How would you feel if he was?
Sir John Major
There have been some extraordinary elevations to the peerage in recent years, quite extraordinary, quite apart from the over large number of peers that have been put there. I think it would be rather extraordinary if that happens. I’m not at all sure it would be approved by the House of Lords, or by those who vet peerages.
Nick Robinson
Our political system, as you know too well as someone who had a rather small majority, gives enormous power to Prime Ministers who have a decent or a big majority. Can restoring trust in the way that you want, in the way the public seem to want as an extraordinary poll in the Daily Mail today, carried out by JL Partners where 57% of people agree with the statement ‘Britain is in danger of becoming a corrupt country’, can tackling that be entrusted to this Prime Minister?
Sir John Major
This is the Prime Minister we have and he will have to tackle it. It can start with the way he treats Parliament. I’m afraid the government with its over large majority do tend to treat Parliament with contempt and if that continues it will end badly. They bypass Parliament at will, the Speaker has expressed his frustration about that on many occasions and rightly so, but they also behave badly in other ways that are perhaps politically corrupt. They brief the press, or a part of it, well in advance of any announcements to the public. They then make announcements to the public and then at that late stage after briefing their friends in the press and the public, they then tell Parliament, which completely diminishes the role of the House of Commons. Parliament must react to that.
Parliament must make sure that the Government’s behaviour is responsible, because they have the power to do so. The Parliament at present has given the Prime Minister a very large majority, but he would be very unwise to forget that he got his extraordinary majority of 80 seats with less than 30% of the people who are entitled to vote, 29.3 or 29.7, I think is the actual figure. If he wishes to bring even the electoral system into total disrepute he has to recognise that he does not have the majority opinion at his side that the majority of 80 in the House of Commons would seem to imply, he has nothing like that and he should tread very carefully.
Nick Robinson
People listening to this will be in no doubt about your passion, no doubt I think about your anger. But I think there will be some who think this is personal animus, you lost the argument on Brexit, Boris Johnson won the argument on Brexit. And there will be plenty of people who voted leave, saying please don’t lecture us about standards, the establishment, of which they would see you as a part, tried to overturn the votes in a democracy. They tried to overturn the result of that referendum. And, yes, Boris Johnson broke the law or broke treaties. He had to do it because there was a conspiracy to overturn a democratic result in a referendum and you don’t like it?
Sir John Major
He had to break the law? That is absolute nonsense. Never in the history of British politics has a Government had to break the law and tried to justify it in the way this Government has attempted to do. I am very well aware that the extreme Brexiteers will say well there is a bitter old Remoaner. That old mantra will be repeated. And let me say it’s partly true, I am old and I’m most certainly a Remainer. But I’m not bitter – what I am is disappointed and angry at the way the Government has behaved. I’m angry about the trashing of our reputation, I’m angry because I care about the upholding of general decency by the Government and international law.
As for ‘Remoaners’, to use that sneer against half the country, half the country that voted against leaving Europe, is pretty arrogant. When you consider what is happening with Brexit, even more arrogant.
Nick Robinson
In today’s Daily Telegraph editorial, time is running out and the Government should not hold back from doing what is necessary. They are calling for, as you will well know, the use of what is in that jargon called Article 16, which means in reality suspending large parts of the Brexit agreement as part of the row between the UK Government and the EU. How would you feel if they did that?
Sir John Major
I think it would be colossally stupid to do that. To use Article 16 to suspend parts of the protocol will be absurd. This protocol is being denounced week after week by Lord Frost and the Prime Minister. Who negotiated the wretched protocol? Lord Frost and the Prime Minister. They negotiated it, they signed it, and they now wish to break it. If they do that, firstly, it will be seen as very bad faith, it will be seen as irresponsible, there will undoubtedly be severe consequences. It would add to destabilisation in Northern Ireland, it would seriously damage relationships across the whole of Ireland, North and South, and the UK. It would erode relationships between Europe and the UK, it would damage relationships between Washington and London, because Washington, the United States is very much behind the protocol.
At the moment, we are negotiating over the protocol with all the subtlety of a brick. What is happening week after week is that Lord Frost goes into the negotiations, he gives away nothing, he takes something from the European Union. He goes away, blames them for the fact that nothing at all has happened. They are preparing, I think, to trigger Article 16 after the COP meeting has ended and I think if they do, they will come to regret it because this runs alongside other things in Northern Ireland, like the possibility of the destabilisation of the power sharing executive if the DUP withdraw from it. This is a very difficult and dangerous road to go down, it’s not just a question of trade difficulties. It could – we’ve seen what’s happened in Northern Ireland before – it could become much worse. They should be very, very careful about this. This is silly politics to placate a few extreme Brexiteers, and the price will be paid by businesses, people in Northern Ireland and the reputation of the United Kingdom.
Nick Robinson
I think they would say if they were here, if Lord Frost was here, it works – the French back down on fish, the EU back down on lots of controls that were being used in Northern Ireland after Brexit, we have to, they argue, throw our weight around in order to be taken seriously and for people to listen. John Major’s nice diplomacy doesn’t get you anywhere.
Sir John Major
Well, if they think that the way of negotiating is to be a bully, then I think they will come adrift in due course, and it may be on this occasion. It’s certainly true that the European Union obeys the normal laws of diplomacy and this country wouldn’t seem to recognise them at all at the present moment. But there will come a moment when it will stop. There’s come a moment in the House of Commons in the last week when many missteps by the government have suddenly exploded into a general anger. The same thing may happen over Northern Ireland if they proceed down the route they’re going.
Nick Robinson
Now you talk about general anger, there will again be some people listening who say well, it’s a bit rich for Sir John Major to talk about sleaze, wasn’t that the thing that drove him from office in many ways, a cash for questions scandal I mentioned, arms for Iraq, Jonathan Aitken, not to mention a host of ministers who were forced to resign during your period in office. Are you really qualified to talk about this?
Sir John Major
I think that’s a perfectly fair point for you to put. We did face so called sleaze in the 1990s, it was immensely damaging, it was embarrassing, it hurt the government, it hurt Parliament. It involved a relatively small number of people who misbehaved, the worst of which was cash for questions. There was no excuse for that. A small number of MPs were paid for asking parliamentary questions, it was a form of paid lobbying, and completely unacceptable. But here’s the difference. When that happened, I set up the Nolan Committee on Standards in Public Life to stop it, which has been a huge success. The striking difference is this, in the 1990s I set up a committee to tackle this sort of behaviour. Over the last few days we have seen today’s government trying to defend this sort of behaviour. Sleaze is unacceptable, was unacceptable when I was there, and I suffered a great deal of pain and anguish over it. It’s as unacceptable today, and it needs to be stopped.
Nick Robinson
You have described the Prime Minister’s behaviour, the behaviour of this Government, as unconservative. Now, our votes are a private matter but do you ever have nights, do you ever have moments when you look in the mirror and think I’m not sure I can vote for this man to remain as Prime Minister?
Sir John Major
Well, I wouldn’t be, I would be voting for my local Member of Parliament. So in fact, it’s not quite as simple as that. But it will be a dilemma for many people. I mean, the Government cushions itself with this majority of 80: the 80 was partly a vote for the Conservative Party, but I fear in significant part it was a vote against the fact that the Labour Party did not seem credible to form a government. That is why I think a little humility would be entirely appropriate to the government in the present situation in which they find themselves.
Nick Robinson
Sir John Major, thank you for joining us.
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Sir John Major’s Speech – Middle Temple’s Treasurer’s Lecture: The State We’re In
The speech made by Sir John Major at Middle Temple on 9 November 2020.
THE STATE WE’RE IN
It is a privilege to be invited to deliver this lecture and my only regret is that it is remote – with no live audience ….. nor the delights of a Middle Temple dinner.
Given the date, my subject is appropriate. On this day in 1923, Hitler failed to seize power in Germany; in 1938, it marked Kristallnacht and the Nazi assault on Jews; and, in 1989, the Berlin Wall fell.
Each of these events impacted on the wider world – and that wider world will now impact on “The State We’re In”.
The future of that State requires plain speaking if we are to be honest with our nation.
And, of course, with ourselves. The great powers of our age are the United States, China, and the European Union.
The world they straddle is fractious. The values of liberal society are stalled, if not in retreat. America and China are in a Trade War and an embryonic Cold War. Europe and America are far apart on many issues, but both deplore China’s authoritarian direction under President Xi.
Lesser powers like Russia – the Great Disrupter – and Turkey continue to subvert and to meddle.
Free trade and globalisation are now widely questioned.
Migration and radical Islam are an ever present problem.
Populism continues to promote prejudice and racial intolerance.
And, in many nation states, autocracy has grown – and democracy has fallen back.
Our world seems ill at ease, at a moment when harmony and collective decision making seem more and more essential for our security and well-being.
The post-War settlement is out of date.
The United Nations is hamstrung by the rules of its own Security Council.
The World Trade Organisation is paralysed, with no functioning resolution dispute procedure.
The World Health Organisation is under-funded, under-powered and under attack.
Despite all this, no nation seems prepared to lead the case for reform.
The financial crash of 2007 weakened many countries and the lives of billions of people; and, in the year of Covid, trillions of dollars have been diverted from growth as the virus has increased hardship on every Continent.
This is the wider context in which the United Kingdom must prepare for our future, whilst facing the added challenges of Covid-19 – and Brexit.
Our country has many virtues but, if we are to be successful in this challenging environment, we need to be cruelly honest with ourselves about what needs to be done to ensure our political and economic wellbeing.
If we’re complacent, we betray our own interests. If we see ourselves through rose-tinted spectacles, then we will deceive ourselves.
Complacency and nostalgia are the route to national decline. So I favour reality and optimism – but with the warning that false optimism is deceit by another name.
We are no longer a great power. We will never be so again. In a world of nearly 8 billion people, well under 1% are British.
We are a top second-rank power but, over the next half century – however well we perform – our small size and population makes it likely we will be passed by the growth of other, far larger, countries.
In recent decades, we have consoled ourselves that we “punch above our weight” in international affairs. I think that was true: but that was then, and this is now.
Our hefty international influence rested on our history and reputation, buttressed by our membership of the European Union and our close alliance with the United States.
Suddenly, we are no longer an irreplaceable bridge between Europe and America. We are now less relevant to them both.
COVID
At home, we must face Covid.
Covid has already left many families bereaved and bereft. It has changed lives and work patterns, cost billions, increased national debt and annual deficits.
It has destroyed public tolerance of austerity, and made tax rises inevitable – although not, if we are sensible, until the economy is more healthy.
The virus also presents a formidable obstacle to one of the Government’s better instincts. Their intention is to level up the regions and help individuals “left behind”. The pernicious effect of Covid will be to level down.
The problem is not so much the gap between rich and poor, but that the poor may become so indebted and destitute they are unable to maintain themselves – or their families.
The classic response to tide people over – until the private sector returns to full capacity – is for social subsidy out of taxation.
But billions upon billions have already been spent, and friction between the extent of need and the capacity to help is inevitable.
And there are many in need of help – businesses forced to shut down, the unemployed, the self-employed, the care sector, health, the arts, sport: the demands on the Exchequer are beyond anything we have known in peacetime.
The Government deserves credit for what has been spent so far, to set against criticism for unmet needs.
But I do find it surprising that – in the midst of the Covid crisis – the Government appears to be fostering disputes with the
Judiciary, where all Governments should tread carefully; the Civil Service, upon whose help the Government depends; and the BBC, still the most respected broadcaster on the planet.These are unmerited distractions from the issues the country needs them to focus on.
BREXIT
The core change in the New Britain being forged is – Brexit. It has been hidden behind Covid for a few months. It has not gone away. You have to be wilfully in denial not to see the damage already done, and not to be concerned at what it might mean.
Brexit divided England and Wales from Scotland and Northern Ireland. It divided political parties and families; the young and their elders; business and trade unions; and friend from friend. As its full impact becomes apparent in the New Year, old wounds may re-open.There is no consensus on Brexit, and never has been. It was a bitterly divisive policy, and uncorked a populism that may be difficult to quell.
The Referendum debate was unlike any I have known before. Emotion overcame reality. And, in the search for hearts and minds and votes, fiction defeated fact and fostered a belief in a past that never was – whilst boosting enthusiasm for a future that may never be.
If that mode of politics takes root, it will kill all respect in our system of government.
In the Referendum, Britons voted to leave the European Union. I have never hidden my view, nor have I changed it. To my mind – and I am no starry-eyed European – Brexit is the worst foreign policy decision in my lifetime.
I have seen the EU from the inside and know its frustrations. But have no doubt we were better off in than we will be out.
The decision to leave will damage our future in many ways, and the reassurances we are given are unconvincing.
Brexit was sold to our electors on false premises.
Promises made will not – indeed, cannot – be kept. To leave the EU – to separate ourselves from our neighbours – was sold as “regaining sovereignty”, but it is, and will prove to be, a long and painful ball and chain on our national wellbeing.
After the Referendum, Brexiteers did not even bother to argue the merits of their case – why should they? – it was “the will of the people”.
And once “the will of the people” was asserted as a repeated mantra – and the Brexit leaders claimed to speak for all “the people” – any opposition to Brexit became illegitimate, and any contrary view was howled down.
Free speech for those who supported remaining in the EU came at a price. They were pilloried as “Remoaners”: sticking to long-held principles and policies, and warning of clear dangers ahead was depicted as “sour grapes by sore losers”.
Even Judges were denounced as “Enemies of the People” for ruling on a Point of Law. Opponents of Brexit were cowed, and free speech was curtailed. It was shameful. No democracy should find itself in such a position.
Overseas, the outcome of the Referendum delighted our enemies and dismayed our friends. As our nation voted against its history and its self-interest, a bemused world looked on, wondering why we had chosen to become poorer and less influential.
Brexit was sold to the nation as a win-win situation. It is not. We were promised we would stay in the Single Market. We have not. We were told trade with the EU would be frictionless. It will not be.
We were promised we would save billions in payments to the European Union: a bus was driven around the country telling us so.
Not so: Brexit is costing billions – not saving them.
We were told that our “liberated country” could cut back on bureaucracy and regulations. We now know they will increase – and dramatically.
We were promised we would strike lucrative trade deals with America, India, China and others in quick time. Japan apart – we have not.
More recently – and for the first time in our long history – Ministers have proposed legislation giving them powers to break the law. This is a slippery slope down which no democratic Government should ever travel.
And, it was claimed, Brexit wouldn’t increase support for Scottish independence or a united Ireland. It has.
It defies logic that intelligent men and women making such extravagant promises did not know they were undeliverable – and yet they continued to make them.
It was politics. It was campaigning. It was for a cause.
It was also unforgiveable.
If that is how we are going to conduct our public affairs, then not only will our politics truly fall into a bad place, but our word as a nation will no longer be trusted.
POST-BREXIT TRADE
Trade has always been the life-blood of our prosperity.
We were promised a comprehensive trade deal with the EU. We were told this would be “the easiest deal in history” because “we hold all the cards”. Apparently not.
As the politics changed, the promises were ditched.
We can now look forward to a flimsy, barebones deal – or no deal at all. This is a wretched betrayal of what our electors were led to believe.
It now seems that on 1 January next year, Brexit may be even more brutal than anyone expected.
Brexit is no friend of free trade with Europe. It may set up new tariff barriers. And it certainly will:
- set up non-tariff barriers;
- damage supply chains;
- add to regulations;
- demand new customs and security declarations;
- require Rules of Origin to prove where spare parts came from; – require tens of thousands of customs agents to process new bureaucracy; – create huge stockpiling dilemmas; and
- require new massive storehouses to hold supplies.
These costs and complexities are the certain legacy of Brexit. This is as a result of our negotiating failure – and it is a failure.
Because of our bombast, our blustering, our threats and our inflexibility – our trade will be less profitable, our Treasury poorer, our jobs fewer, and our future less prosperous.
This is not hindsight wisdom: this outcome was not only foreseeable, it was foreseen. Unfortunately, in a brilliant mis-direction, all warnings were scorned as “Project Fear” and ignored. And, to add tragedy to farce, it was the people who were misled who will now lose out.
The Government has not been frank about our negotiations with Europe.
They say we are merely asking for a Canada deal, but that’s not so. We are asking for a deal without tariffs or quotas and for more on haulage, on energy, on aviation – and we are a bigger trading rival than Canada and nearer to the EU.
The Canada comparison is – to put it kindly – disingenuous. And to refer to an Australian deal is absurd.
There is no Australia deal. It is a fantasy: a euphemism for no deal at all – and the Government should say so.
Its reputation will suffer if it is not honest with the British people about this.
It is time to stop putting Ministers on the media who speak to a pre-prepared script and parrot misleading or pointless slogans.
There are hopes of trade deals with America, China and India. They would be welcome but, once again, the promises are overdone.
One day, I am sure, we will get the much-heralded trade deal with America, originally promised for last Spring, then Summer – now, who knows?
When it does come, it will benefit America far more than us. It may be symbolically important, but it won’t be an economic game-changer.
The promised trade deal with China is highly unlikely in any near timescale. Our ice-cold diplomatic relations with Russia rule out a trade deal with her, too.
And, if we wish to have a trade deal with India, the Government must realise that we cannot seek it on a Monday, and restrict immigration from India on Tuesday – it is a poor optic and a worse negotiating strategy.
The macro arguments against Brexit: the economic and social damage, our weaker position in the world, and the loss of trade advantages, may seem remote. They won’t prove to be.
WIDER IMPACT OF BREXIT
And lesser issues will impact directly:
- the loss of freedom of movement in Europe;
- higher food prices;
- more expensive holidays;
- the withdrawal of EU driving licences;
- the cost of health insurance without the free cover of the European Health Card;
- the loss of the Pet Passport Scheme and the expensive – and time consuming – effort to get approval for pets to travel;
- higher roaming charges for mobile phones;
- slower entry and more delays at European airports; and
- the loss of the automatic right to work, live or study in the EU.
Small irritations, some may say, but – collectively – a significant loss of freedom that will be an unwelcome surprise to many as Europe itself begins to “take back control”.
When the present phase of Brexit is over, it is important we negotiate a more comprehensive relationship with the EU than is likely to emerge from the present negotiations.
We should seek bilateral agreements in areas of trade and policy which have not been agreed in these rushed negotiations.
We should work with the EU to address global problems.
And we should recognise that the nations of the EU are bound with ourselves in ties of common interest, history and future destiny.
To ignore this would be a dereliction of our national interests.
SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE
One deeply troubling effect of Brexit is the risk of breaking up the UK by increased support for Scotland to leave the Union, and Northern Ireland to unite with the South.
Neither will do so immediately, but the combination of Brexit – and the unpopularity of our present Westminster Government in Scotland – has increased the likelihood of a breach.
I remain a convinced Unionist. Every part of the UK is richer – and of more weight in the world – if they stay together.
The most likely to leave is Scotland. If she does, it will not only weaken Scotland, but also undermine the rump of the UK.
It will be a step into the unknown for us both.
The problem is politics.
The raison d’être of the SNP is an independent Scotland while – for many Conservatives – Unionism is at the heart of their philosophy. It is a challenge to see whether that chasm can be bridged.
To keep the Union together will require consensus, consideration and consultation. The Government must engage, coax, encourage, and examine every possible route to find an arrangement that will obtain a majority for union.
It will be difficult – and is made even more so by the posturing of English and Scottish nationalists.
In law, the Scots require the approval of the Westminster Government before they can legally hold a new independence referendum.
But refusing one might help the separatist case, by adding to the list of grievances the Scottish National Party exploit with such skill.
The choice for the UK Government is either to agree the referendum can take place – or to refuse to permit it. Both options come with great risk. But the lessons of Brexit may offer a way ahead.
The Westminster Government could agree for an Independence Referendum to take place, on the basis of two referenda. The first to vote upon the principle of negotiations, and the second upon the outcome of them.
The purpose of the second referendum would be that Scottish electors would know what they were voting for, and be able to compare it to what they now have. This did not happen with Brexit: had it done so, there may have been no Brexit.
Many Scottish voices – and especially business – may support the logic of this: it may focus minds away from a short-term reflex opposition to a perceived English Government, and back to the mutual and long-term virtues of the Union.
NORTHERN IRELAND
Brexiteers affected not to notice that Northern Ireland’s support for the European Union pulled the Six Counties more into the orbit of the Republic of Ireland.
This was exacerbated when the Prime Minister’s renegotiation of Theresa May’s Withdrawal Deal left Northern Ireland more integrated with the Republic than the rest of the United Kingdom.
It was sold as a triumph, but it was a surrender.
These developments accompanied a third reality: the Nationalist population in Northern Ireland is growing faster than the Unionists, and is close to a majority.
The conjunction of these events is to increase the future possibility of a border poll – already sought by Sinn Fein – to vote upon a united Ireland.
I doubt that such a poll would be won at present. Not all Nationalists will vote for unity. The Republic would find it hard to absorb the weak economic structure of the North.
The time for a poll is not yet come. But it will. And if – when it does – the Northern Irish vote for unification, then those who ignored the warnings that Brexit posed will have to answer for the dismantling of a further part of the United Kingdom.
And, here in Middle Temple, one issue cannot be ignored. The Rule of Law.
Earlier I referred – in passing – to the provisions in the Internal Markets Bill that empower a Minister to disregard aspects of the Treaty the Prime Minister agreed earlier this year.
This action is unprecedented in all our history – and for good reason. It has damaged our reputation around the world.
Lawyers everywhere are incredulous that the UK – often seen as the very cradle of the Rule of Law – could give themselves the power to break the law.
Moreover, at a moment when we need to maximise our commercial activities, this Bill has had a corrosive impact on the reputation of English and Welsh jurisdiction.
This may have a practical cost.
International dispute resolution can be conducted anywhere overseas and the Bill could erode the present pre-eminent position of the UK and, perhaps, especially London.
Was this considered when the Bill was drafted? Was there consultation with the legal profession? If not, why not? And if there was consultation – why was it ignored?
Similar concerns apply to the clause that seeks to exclude Judicial Review in delegated legislation.
I cannot believe it is compatible with the Rule of Law to protect executive Acts from judicial scrutiny: put simply, Ministers must be subject to legal restraints. They cannot be above the law.
And all individuals must have access to the law. Our delivery of justice must be seen to be fair and impartial – access to the law must not depend upon the size of your bank account.
Magna Carta promised:
“To no one will we sell, to no one deny or delay right or justice”.
And yet, an individual – if denied legal aid – may not have the resources to right an injustice. That can deny justice: it cannot be right.
Nor can it be right to denigrate our Judiciary. They are not the “Enemies of the People”: they are the guarantors of our liberties under the law.
It is the responsibility of Parliament to uphold these liberties if they are threatened by any source: not to do so would be to curtail an essential freedom.
I have set out some concerns about the present state of our country. But I wouldn’t wish to be misunderstood.
SUMMATION
Throughout my life I have travelled widely and – in the last 20 years – almost incessantly.
In all my travels I have found nowhere I would wish to live, other than here in the UK.
That said, I believe we have a duty to make life better for this – and future generations – to whom we will be passing a difficult legacy.
In hard times, there is often an inflection point that changes minds, and compels policy that otherwise could not be easily implemented.
The combination of hazards before us may be such a moment.
To make it so, policy should be set to pave the way to a fairer, better, safer, and – in time – more prosperous future.
We will all have to bear burdens for such aspirations to become a reality, but that is both our privilege and our responsibility.
The very core of well-being is an expanding economy, efficient health provision and quality education.
The Government’s “levelling up” strategy is essential. So is – sooner rather than later – a credible system of social care for the elderly.
For future employment, we will have to focus increasingly on vocational education, and give such skills the respect they deserve.
It is essential we remain a United Kingdom – and reinforce the values that have built our reputation. If we cannot again be a great power, we can be a great example.
If we cannot compel, we can influence.
We can build up our soft power to sustain our profile.
We can use our diplomacy to raise issues that need multi-nation action.
We can be “Global Britain” in more ways than trade. But, to be so, we must reject the narrow nationalism that some have imported into our politics.
We must put aside the notion of “British exceptionalism”: it is a fantasy baked into the minds of those who do not know how the world has changed.
But – we can be exceptional.
All this – and more – can be achieved.
We like to think of ourselves as the land of hope and glory. “Hope” is essential – most especially during the darkest of times.
But I am ambivalent about the “glory”.
I will settle for a land that is united and prosperous; which rises above challenges – as it has done so often in the past; whose word is trusted both near and far; and whose people are seen to be decent, fair and compassionate to all.
In every corner of our United Kingdom that remains the instinctive heartbeat. And it is one which I hope will always prevail.
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Joint Statement with Tony Blair on UK Withdrawal Treaty Breach – 12 September 2020
The joint statement issued by Sir John Major and Tony Blair on 12 September 2020 and published in the Sunday Times on 13 September 2020.
Last October, Britain concluded an international Treaty with the European Union for the terms of Britain’s exit from the EU. This subsequently passed into British Law. It contained a specific agreement for resolution of the terms of trade for Northern Ireland.
It was described by the Government as a “negotiating triumph” which would lead to an “oven ready” trade deal between the UK and Europe.
It was, of course, no such thing. Even so, a General Election – with this agreement very much centre stage – was fought and won by the Conservative Party.
Last week, with the promise of a comprehensive trade deal with the EU long gone, and the Brexit negotiations in disarray, the Government published a Bill which it openly admits is a violation of that Treaty. This Bill contravenes the Treaty the UK ratified, and overrides the law that Parliament passed on the basis that the agreement over Northern Ireland – as reached by the Prime Minister himself – did, in any event, contain “unforeseen” ambiguities.
We have become so inured to the unending Brexit saga of misinformation and misdirection that the hollow claims, empty promises and emptier threats have lost their power to shock.
But what is being proposed now is shocking. How can it be compatible with the Codes of Conduct which bind Ministers, Law Officers and Civil Servants to deliberately break Treaty obligations? As we negotiate new trade Treaties, how do we salvage credibility as “Global Britain” if we so blatantly disregard our commitments the moment we sign them?
Yet the Government seeks to do so by the extraordinary pretence that breaking international law is necessary to “save the Good Friday Agreement”, which has given us peace in Northern Ireland for over two decades, and utterly changed the relationship between the UK and its nearest neighbour, the Republic of Ireland.
We disagree. The Government’s action does not protect the Good Friday Agreement, it imperils it.
When the two of us travelled together to Northern Ireland during the 2016 referendum campaign, we warned that the open border between the North and South of Ireland – such a vital element of the Peace Process and the Good Friday Agreement – was inconsistent with the UK leaving the European Single Market. We warned that we would be faced with a choice of either abandoning that open border, or keeping Northern Ireland at least inside the Single Market. We warned that, if Britain left the Single Market and Northern Ireland stayed, a degree of separation would be created between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.
At the time we were excoriated as out of touch and out of time “has beens” who didn’t understand the complexities of the Irish problem. We – and the British and Irish people – were assured it would be easy to negotiate a way around all this.
Four years on – after Theresa May ended up accepting, as a “back-stop”, that Northern Ireland should stay closely tied into the rules of the Single Market and the whole of the UK in the Customs Union – Boris Johnson resigned as Foreign Secretary on the basis that her agreement was a “betrayal”. He subsequently succeeded Mrs May as Prime Minister, and promptly replaced the “back-stop” with a “front-stop” that keeps Northern Ireland tied to EU single market rules, which was exactly where we were always going to be.
When the Government renegotiated the Withdrawal Treaty, and urged MPs to pass it into domestic law, it did so in full knowledge of the consequences of doing so. These were that Northern Ireland would have to comply with some EU rules to keep the border open, including those on state aid, and that, as a result, new barriers to trade would arise between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.
That was the unavoidable price of Britain leaving the single market and customs union, while wishing to avoid the imposition of a new hard border on the island of Ireland.
To claim now that the Government has only just discovered this consequence is a nonsense, for it was the Prime Minister himself who negotiated it.
The overt repudiation of the Treaty – by seeking to unilaterally override the provisions agreeing to the application of certain EU rules to Northern Ireland strikes at the very heart of the Withdrawal Agreement.
It puts the Good Friday Agreement at risk, because it negates the predictability, political stability and legal clarity which is integral to the delicate balance between the North and South of Ireland that is at the core of the Peace Process.
If the Government has concerns about specific parts of the Withdrawal Treaty, there are ready mechanisms within it to resolve them amicably, in the first instance by negotiation between the UK and the EU and, if that fails, through independent arbitration.
It has chosen to ignore these options. Instead, it has thrown the Withdrawal Treaty into uncertainty and given the EU genuine reason to question whether Britain can be relied upon in any future agreements they make for trade with the EU.
This has wide-ranging ramifications. It will not only make negotiation with the EU more difficult, but also any trade negotiations with other nations – including the United States. Once trust is undermined, distrust becomes prevalent.
If Parliament passes this Bill, the UK is bound to end up before the ECJ which, under the Northern Ireland protocol, retains jurisdiction over EU rules. What if the UK loses? Do we defy the ruling? What price our international word then? Has any of this been thought through?
It is unlikely that the EU will respond in a way that prejudices the Good Friday Agreement, but it may well retaliate in areas of enormous significance to the UK, such as limiting the access of UK financial services firms to the Single Market.
We both opposed Brexit. We both accept it is now happening. But this way of negotiating, with reason cast aside in pursuit of ideology, and cavalier bombast posing as serious diplomacy, is irresponsible, wrong in principle and dangerous in practice.
It raises questions that go far beyond the impact on Ireland, the Peace Process, and negotiations for a trade deal – crucial though they are. It questions the very integrity of our nation.
If the Government succeeds in its plans, what constitutional audacity will be beyond them? If Parliament deliberately passes legislation known to undermine international law, what will that do to the reputation of Parliament and our country?
For a country which has for hundreds of years furthered the cause of law around the world, respecting treaty obligations is just as important as domestic law. The constitutional principle of the Rule of Law requires us to treat such obligations in international law in the same way as in national law. Sophistry cannot justify this behaviour, nor can sly interpretation of one particular clause over another.
This Government has already played fast and loose with Parliamentary Sovereignty and the Rule of Law. It had its knuckles rapped last year by the Supreme Court, but this did not deter them.
As the world looks on aghast at the UK – whose word was once accepted as inviolable, this Government’s action is shaming itself and embarrassing our nation.
This latest ruse has spectacularly misfired, and must stop now – before any further damage is done. And, if the Government itself will not respect the Rule of Law, then the High Court of Parliament should compel it to do so.
The Rt Hon Sir John Major KG CH
The Rt Hon Tony Blair
12 September, 2020