Tag: Interest Rates

  • Mr Major’s Speech in Aberdeen – 9 September 1991

    Below is the transcript of Mr Major’s speech in Aberdeen, given on 9th September 1991. [Parts of the transcript were unclear, and are marked with ….]


    PRIME MINISTER:

    Can I say thank you for the opportunity of meeting you all here this evening. I have spent the day in Aberdeen and the area and it has been a very worthwhile day. One of the pleasures of being Prime Minister is that you are able to escape from London and I do belong to those species of politicians who do not believe that the world begins and ends in the Greater London area.

    So it has been an intriguing day from the Cardon [phon] distillery, to schools, the Chamber of Commerce, the lunchtime speech to the Aberdeen Press and Journal and also to open Grampian Enterprise’s new building where they are going to produce all these splendid … and other ideas of Scottish enterprise that are going to provide so much training for us in the future.

    So I have had the opportunity of getting a very clear bird’s eye view of much of what is happening up here and from my point of view it has been an immensely worthwhile occasion.

    Let me just say a brief word or two about one or two of the matters that are still to come in the months … the rest of this year. And no I am not going to talk about the general election.

    Let me say a word about the progress of the economy as where I think we now are. Across the United Kingdom as a whole the recession has been quite deep, it has been deeper I think it is fair to say than we anticipated at the start or indeed had anyone anticipated, it has been uneven. Contrary to the pattern in recessions that we have seen almost as far back as you can go, the deepest part of it has been in the south and the east because predominantly that was where the largest borrowing was and that therefore was where the largest impact was with the monetary policy as we sought to end it.

    The way it now happens I think is for a sufficiency of months to be absolutely certain … but I think it has been happening for a sufficient number of months to be absolutely certain about it … is that we are I believe increasingly clear that we are through the worst of the recession and that we can now look forward to the regeneration of confidence in the months ahead.

    There are several things I believe that makes that perfectly clear and the first of those is the direction of inflation and by inflation I do not just mean the Retail Price Index, important though that undoubtedly is, I mean the trend of underlying inflation as well. That has been dropping now for some months and it is clear we have it by the scruff of the neck and it will go on dropping in the months ahead. It is very likely that we will have a lower inflation rate than Germany at some stage between now and the end of the year and we have not had that for very many years indeed.

    The second matter which I think is increasingly impacted upon the business mind if not the public mind is the effect of having joined the Exchange Rate Mechanism. In the last year, since we joined it when I was Chancellor last October – and I am bound to say it seems longer, I cannot think why – but in the year since we joined it last October we have seen interest rates in the United Kingdom come down by 4.5 percent, we have seen them rise in Germany and many other parts of Europe, and yet sterling, despite this dramatic narrowing of interest rate differentials has stayed absolutely stable around its central point of 2.95 deutschmarks.

    Not many people expected that to happen but I believed that it would and thus far at least events have shown that that was the right judgment.

    So we are increasingly getting to the position where we have a stable exchange rate, which is one of the key ingredients that the business sector repeatedly have said to governments that they need, they need to be clear where they are on the exchange markets, increasingly that is the case. We now have inflation coming down as well so we have two key ingredients that are critical to business confidence.

    The third one is where we have had so much problem in the months that have immediately gone past, there has been a decline in consumer confidence and consequently in spending and consequently in the market for your products whether in the retail sector or in many parts of the country though that is so I know in Aberdeen for other reasons in the construction industry.

    But there are signs now that consumer confidence is reviving, this morning’s figures I think tend to indicate that, but there have been other leading indicators as well. And if that is correct, and I think the balance of probability is that it is correct, we will be having another of the ingredients in place that we need to return to sustainable growth and that is the return of consumer and investor confidence.

    Now if those three factors are in place – the stable exchange rate, the falling and thereafter low inflation rate and the return of consumer confidence – we are going to find ourselves very well placed indeed for an upturn in the economy in the year ahead.

    Some people say will it be speedy? Well I would say to you, though it will seem to you I daresay a curious thing for me to say, I hope not too soon because what I do not want to see is the economy coming so speedily out of the recession that we have had that we create that hump and collapse that we have seen so frequently in the past, that boom and stop scenario. I do not want that, I want a gentle and sustainable, sustainable, growth out of recession in the months and the years ahead and that is what we are gearing policy to achieve.

    But apart from the fact that I think that is the most stable way to move the economy out of recession, it is also the most sensible way if we look at what we actually need to achieve in the 1990s. Out there is a more competitive world day by day than we have ever known before in our history as a great trading nation. All over the world people who were tame and happy recipients of our products and expertise years ago are now our principal competitors, all the way across south-east Asia you see the most immense changes in attitude, in producing techniques, in management skills, areas where we had huge markets and now we must fight not only for those markets but against those people for other markets.

    And then you see the changes there have been in Latin America and elsewhere. We are in a world where the most competitive and the most efficient have tremendous horizons and where the uncompetitive and the inefficient have no horizons whatsoever because these days if you are not efficient and you are not competitive and you do not provide what people want then you will not survive let alone thrive in the 1990s. In Europe there is a special point to be made and that is the fact that we will soon have the Single Market completely in operation, we will have an open more liberal market across Europe than we have ever seen before, it will not be perfect but it will be a good deal better than anything that has been in place. And the countries and the businesses that will scoop the pool in that huge and rich market are the efficient ones that a stable economy, sustainable investment, sustainable growth, low inflation and the right business climate in order to have the confidence to go out and seek and win those markets.

    That I believe is a huge prize, it is a prize that I am not prepared to take any risks with and that is the essential reason that I say we must come out of this bitter and nasty recession at a sustainable pace to give industry and commerce the right climate to capitalise on those opportunities in the 1990s.

    It is interesting, is it not, … I gave you some illustrations a moment ago in terms of what is happening in other parts of the world but we have seen politically as well the huge changes that are taking place in Eastern Europe and the great changes in terms of technology, many of the things that people will buy as their everyday consumer durables by the turn of the century, probably the majority of those things that they will buy have not yet been invented in the early 1990s. That is the pace of change and particularly technological and innovative change that we are actually seeking to live with at the moment and the environment in which we have to ….

    So it is an exciting time, it is a time when the opportunities are different and a time when if we get the economic management wrong you will not be able to take advantage of those opportunities, that is why I will be cautious in bringing us, with Norman Lamont, out of the recession. But I do believe we are coming out of it in the right way and I think because of the survey released this morning, added to the earlier evidence we have seen, are the clearest opportunity that that is actually what is happening.

    So 4 percent inflation by the end of the year is a target, a target that now I am confident we will meet and perhaps beat .. and that is I think a very happy and worthwhile development.

    So let me just say in conclusion how pleased I have been to have the opportunity of speaking to some of you and soon to have the opportunity of meeting more of you. I am aware of the work of the Chamber of Commerce out in the area, I know how many companies are members, I know the opportunities that you will have to work with the Chamber of Commerce to exploit the export markets that I have mentioned.

    I would just say to you opportunities are there if we have … and the skill and the enterprise and the courage then we must take those opportunities and build for ourselves in the 1990s a business structure and a prosperity structure for this and the next generation on a scale we previously had not imagined and had not seen. I wish you well.

  • Mr Major’s Speech to Aberdeen Chamber of Commerce – 9 September 1991

    Below is the text of Mr Major’s speech made to the Aberdeen Chamber of Commerce Dinner on Monday 9th September 1991.


    PRIME MINISTER:

    Thank you, Mr. President, for your kind introductory remarks.

    It is a great pleasure to be with you this evening. I very much welcome this opportunity to meet representatives of the business community here in North East Scotland.

    This Chamber is well-known as a sturdy champion of local business in Aberdeen and Grampian. Firms in this area benefit substantially from the high standard of service which the Chamber provides for its members. I am particularly impressed by the way that the Chamber has capitalised on the economic opportunities which have come to Grampian in recent years.

    A Chamber of Commerce that makes the most of these opportunities is truly serving the interests of its members and the wider local community.

    But industry in Grampian – even the international oil and gas industries – can only flourish in a strong domestic economy. And a strong domestic economy requires the defeat of inflation. Control of inflation has been and remains the Government’s main economic objective. We promised we would beat inflation. It is a battle we are winning and will go on winning.

    Headline inflation has been virtually halved since last October. It is now down to 5.5 per cent, the lowest figure for 3 years. Moreover, the underlying rate of inflation has also fallen dramatically – down by 2 3/4 percentage points since last autumn. Make no mistake: inflation will continue to fall in the months ahead. We are now firmly on course for inflation of 4 per cent by the end of this year.

    Over the last year, inflation has risen in most other EC countries. In the UK it has fallen significantly. And by the end of this year I expect our inflation rate to be below the EC average. Indeed, our inflation rate may well be lower than that of Germany.

    As inflationary pressures have eased, so interest rates have come down. Not just once or twice. But 8 times since last October. Only last week, the conditions were right for a further 1/2 per cent cut. That took our base rates to 10 1/2 per cent – the lowest level for over 3 years. Even before the latest reduction is passed on these cuts will have been saving business £5 billion a year. And the typical £30,000 mortgage payer is £65 a month better off than last year.

    If the Government had predicted last autumn that inflation would be halved; that sterling would remain strong against the deutschmark; and that domestic interest rates would fall from 15 per cent to 10 1/2 per cent, we might have been accused of excessive optimism. Indeed, our opponents might well have put their scepticism in stronger language. For that remarkable combination of a steady exchange rate, falling interest rates and falling inflation is just what we have achieved.

    Yet the battle against inflation is being won at a time of great economic difficulty for many. The United Kingdom economy has been passing through recession. It has been painful for many individuals and many businesses. That recession is of course by no means confined to the UK – North America, France, Italy, Australia have also seen falling output. Yet, however international its coverage, that is no consolation for all those who have been hit hard here at home.

    We cannot be absolutely sure whether the recovery has started because we only get the figures some time after the event. However, there are some encouraging, if still highly provisional indications, that recovery is now underway. A number of recent press articles have drawn attention to the pick-up in retail sales, the excellent recent growth in exports and to higher than expected sales of cars. And even before the latest reduction in interest rates business and consumer confidence has been steadily improving. I remain confident that we will see a recovery in the second half of this year.

    The Scottish economy is of course closely integrated with that of the United Kingdom as a whole. And it would be surprising if wider trends at United Kingdom level were not observed here in Scotland. Yet the pattern is by no means the same. All the evidence suggests that the current economic downturn will be shorter and shallower in Scotland than in the United Kingdom as a whole.

    Over recent years, the Scottish economy has achieved remarkable success. Between 1986 and 1989, Scotland had a faster rate of economic growth than Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands and Denmark. Final figures for 1990 are not yet available. But independent forecasters take the view that Scotland out-performed the United Kingdom economy in that year. It is likely to do so again in 1991 – convincing evidence of the strength of the Scottish economy and its resilience in times of difficulty.

    There are many reasons underlying Scotland’s economic success. The calibre of its people. A unique highly-respected education system. Its independent financial sector. A long tradition of skill, innovation and enterprise. But let me focus on just two striking features of recent performance.

    First, inward investment. Two years ago, the value of new projects attracted to Scotland reached an all-time high. Over the last year, Scotland has secured inward investment decisions worth some £400 million and 10,000 jobs. In a year when we were hit by the Gulf War and the slowdown in the world economy that surely speaks volumes about the attractions of Scotland to international mobile industry. I am confident that that proud record will continue in the years ahead.

    Second, the resurgence of offshore oil and gas activity, centred here in the North East.

    The rapid growth in North Sea activity last year set new records. Exploration and appraisal activity on the UK Continental Shelf reached its highest ever level. Spending committed to new projects was also at a new record. And so was the value of new orders placed for goods and services. Despite increasingly intense competition – particularly from Europe – UK companies’ share of that total was also a record. It rose by 50 per cent in a year to £4.78 billion.

    The pace of recent developments and the continued high discovery rate means that a new peak in combined oil and gas output is now expected by the middle of this decade, with welcome implications for Grampian, Scotland, and the wider UK economy.

    Last year, gas production hit a new record [of some 50 billion cubic metres]. Output is now expected to continue to grow strongly for the rest of the decade. With completion of the new gas pipeline tying the Beryl and Brae fields to St. Fergus, and the development of the large gas condensate Bruce field, gas supplies landed through St. Fergus will increase substantially within the next couple of years. The development of central and northern North Sea gas condensate fields like Bruce and East Brae signals a wholly new phase in the development of the UK’s gas resources.

    Oil exploration so far this year remains at very high levels: I am told that the North Sea has now overtaken even the Gulf of Mexico as the highest area of offshore drilling activity anywhere in the world.

    And oil production is expected to pick up again following completion of the outstanding safety work associated with the Cullen Report. The Piper field itself is now expected to be back on stream ahead of schedule by early next summer, with a new platform incorporating all the safety and engineering lessons learned from the Piper Alpha disaster. As other significant new oilfields like Saltire and Scott come on stream, total oil production should climb steadily over the next three to four years towards a second peak very close to the previous record set in the mid-1980s.

    Until comparatively recently it was still widely assumed that Britain’s self-sufficiency from oil production in the North Sea would be lost by the early 1990s, and that production would fall away steadily thereafter.

    These developments provide a clear vindication for our approach to the oil and gas industries. A flexible and attractive tax regime. Non-intervention – leaving the market to make the necessary adjustments to oil price changes. By our approach I believe we have helped ensure that the UK will remain a major oil and gas producer until well into the next century. We helped to create the conditions which have enabled Scotland’s offshore supplies industry to write one of the most remarkable technological success stories in the history of this century.

    But there is of course more to Grampian than oil and gas. Long before oil was discovered in the North Sea, Grampian was justifiably noted for the quality and natural produce from its countryside. The Aberdeen Angus, the golden Glenlivet malts, the fish harvested from the dangerous waters of the North Sea. I have seen some of these products already today when I paid a most useful and enjoyable visit to the Knockando Distillery on Speyside. So interesting was it that my staff are encouraging me to sample (and I choose my words carefully) the distillery again – and again – and again.

    Industries such as these provide crucial employment in rural parts of Grampian and elsewhere in the North of Scotland. We in Government recognise the importance to those areas of the continued success and prosperity of a range of industry.

    Earlier today, I launched formally Grampian Enterprise Limited, the local enterprise company for the North East. I was struck by the feeling of purpose and commitment which I sensed. The calibre and enthusiasm of Ian Wood and his colleagues are impressive. The staff are clearly committed to Grampian too. I am delighted that through the Scottish Enterprise initiative, the Government have provided the opportunity – and the resources – to enable business people to give a grass-roots lead to training and economic development in Scotland in this way.

    The opportunity is indeed immense. It gives business people the chance to shape the provision of economic development and training programmes to suit local needs. But it is potentially much more significant. The initiative puts business in the key position to lead the skills revolution which our economy needs. It provides an opportunity to influence the thinking and the planning – and thus the competitiveness – of the myriads of companies which make up our economy and which determine its performance.
    Governments cannot do that. But we can provide the resources – the Scottish Enterprise budget for this year is £450 million – for business people to deliver the results. I know that those who have given so much of their time to get the enterprise companies off the ground can rely on their colleagues throughout industry and commerce to feed in ideas, support, and fresh perspectives. I am sure that you will play your part in making the initiative a success.

    Mr. President, there is much more that could be said about the economy of Scotland and of Grampian in particular. You may well be relieved to hear I do not plan to say it.

    But there is one strand which sums up the message I would leave with you tonight. It is this; Grampian and Aberdeen have certainly had a great deal going for them – perhaps even more than other parts of Scotland. But their success is not, I believe, due to that alone. It is because they have made the most of their opportunities. The efforts of individual people and individual businesses have been paramount. That is why, Mr. President, I have very much enjoyed being with you and your members this evening. It is precisely the qualities which I see around me here that I want to foster not only in Scotland, but in the rest of the United Kingdom and indeed in Europe.

    I thank you, Mr. President, for your hospitality, and wish you and the members of the Chamber every success for the future.

  • PMQT – 27 June 1991

    Below is the text of Prime Minister’s Question Time from 27th June 1991.


    PRIME MINISTER

     

    Engagements

    Q1. Sir Michael Neubert : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 27 June.

    The Prime Minister (Mr. John Major) : This morning I presided at a meeting of the Cabinet and had meetings with ministerial colleagues and others. In addition to my duties in the House, I shall have further meetings later today. This evening I shall depart for Luxembourg for the European Council meeting tomorrow.

    Sir Michael Neubert : Does my right hon. Friend agree that a vast expansion of the Common Market regional fund would do little or nothing to bring about a convergence of the European economies, but would merely make the poorer parts of the Community dependent on hand-outs from Brussels? Is he able to say how much such a proposal, which is supported by the Labour party, would cost the average British family?

    The Prime Minister : I am not able to give my hon. Friend a costing on that, because it would depend on the scale of the funds transferred from north to south, but I can confirm that expanding regional funds would certainly involve increased taxation in this country and in a number of other northern countries. The only credible way to bring about economic convergence is control of inflation and the right economic policies.

    Mr. Kinnock : In view of the fact that the Bundesbank decided today not to raise German interest rates, does the Prime Minister agree that now is the time to cut British interest rates?

    The Prime Minister : That is an odd question from the right hon. Gentleman, when the right hon. and learned Member for Monklands, East (Mr. Smith) said only last Thursday :

    “we will not be using interest rates for controlling demand.”

    Mr. Kinnock : The Prime Minister should try to answer a very basic question–especially since every responsible organisation and person concerned with the fate of British industry and British home buyers is calling for a reduction in interest rates. Did the Prime Minister read the reports published earlier this week from Shelter and the Council of Mortgage Lenders, stating that repossessions are at a record high, that hundreds of thousands of families are in deep mortgage arrears and that, in the words of the council’s director, “Worse is yet to come”?

    The Prime Minister’s policies are hitting every class of people and every corner of the country–[ Hon. Members :– “Speech.”] Yes–on behalf of every mortgage payer in Britain. How can the Prime Minister justify continuing with policies that punish the British people for the failure of his own policy?

    The Prime Minister : The right hon. Gentleman neglected to mention that, because we have succeeded in reducing inflation and have moved prudently, we have been able to cut interest rates five times, by a total of 3.5 per cent., without risking an inflationary devaluation in the exchange rate mechanism. That has meant about £50 a month off the average mortgage for mortgage holders.

    Mr. Kinnock : Unemployment is rising, firms are closing and the recovery about which we have heard so much is now going to take longer and be much slower than anything the Prime Minister has promised. How many more homes and how many more enterprises must be lost before the right hon. Gentleman stops pushing the country further into a slump?

    The Prime Minister : The right hon. Gentleman should return to the real world and recognise the commitments that he made when he committed himself to the fact that the exchange rate mechanism was the right policy. On the one hand, the right hon. Gentleman wants to say that it is right to have exchange rate stability, but on the other he makes the inconsistent claim that he wishes to reduce interest rates whenever he finds it convenient to do so.

     

    Q2. Mrs. Gorman : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 27 June.

    The Prime Minister : I refer my hon. Friend to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mrs. Gorman : When my right hon. Friend goes to speak to the women’s Conservative conference later this afternoon will he bear it in mind that its delegates are delighted with the measures that the Government have been taking to improve the lot of women? The steps that we have taken include flexible working hours, more flexible nursery arrangements and better tax arrangements. Will my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister and the Government continue to acknowledge the great contribution that women make to this country, not least by increasing women’s representation in the honours list —

    [Interruption.]

    Mr. Speaker : Order. We do not refer to the honours list in the Chamber.

    Mrs. Gorman : Does my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister realise that, in recommending women in this country for honours he assures the women of Britain that the Tory party is a girl’s best friend?

    The Prime Minister : As my hon. Friend knows, the vast range of policies that we have followed in the past few years clearly shows the importance that we give to the contribution made by women to this country. We shall continue to promote such policies.

     

    Q3. Mr. Austin Mitchell : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 27 June.

    The Prime Minister : I refer the hon. Gentleman to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Mitchell : As the Prime Minister struggles to get his deck-chair up in a busy day of deck-chair wrestling, will he think about this week’s trade figures, which show a large and increasing deficit? Can he cite any country which, when in the depths of a recession, showed an increasing balance of payments deficit?

    The Prime Minister : As the hon. Gentleman should know, first, the trade deficit is on an improving trend and secondly, the underlying export volumes in the quarter to May were at an all-time high–3 per cent. up on the previous quarter and double the rise in import volumes.

     

    Q4. Mr. Mans : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 27 June.

    The Prime Minister : I refer my hon. Friend to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Mans : Does my right hon. Friend agree that it is Conservative policies of competitive tendering, housing action trusts and the abolition of the national dock labour scheme that are coming to the aid of the city of Liverpool and clearing up the mess that successive Labour and Liberal administrations have inflicted on that city?

    The Prime Minister : Conservative legislation certainly offers Liverpool a much better deal. What has happened to Liverpool has been because it followed Labour policies for so long–often, I fear, with the assistance of the Liberal party. The effects of that can be seen by everyone in Liverpool and beyond.

     

    Q5. Mr. Morley : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 27 June.

    The Prime Minister : I refer the hon. Gentleman to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Morley : What hope can the Prime Minister give to constituents who work for as little as £1.70 per hour? Why is it that under the Government boardroom fat cats like the chairman of Wessex Water have had their salaries increased from £47,000 to £100,000 per year while the charges for consumers have increased by 28 per cent? Is Majorism simply extortion by the few and exploitation of the many?

    The Prime Minister : A few days ago I made perfectly clear my opinions of people who provide themselves with undesirably large increases. As for people on very low incomes, a minimum wage would leave them with no income but unemployment.

    Mr. Peter Griffiths : Has my right hon. Friend had time today to note the report in the press of a Nottinghamshire miner who earned £35,000 last year, being among the one in three in that area who earned more than £20,000 last year, much to the credit of the miners, their union and their work rate? What would be the effect on that miner’s take-home pay if the Labour party’s spending plans were put into practice?

    The Prime Minister : I am certainly aware of the very high earnings of many Nottinghamshire miners, which I welcome. Much of that is the result of increased productivity, and it is well earned. It is unfortunate that those miners would face extra taxation as a result of their hard work and success if the Opposition’s tax policies were ever put into operation.

     

    Q6. Mr. Fatchett : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 27 June.

    The Prime Minister : I refer the hon. Gentleman to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Fatchett : Further to the Prime Minister’s reply to my hon. Friend the Member for Glanford and Scunthorpe (Mr. Morley), may I ask the right hon. Gentleman whether he has seen the report in today’s issue of The Daily Telegraph that John Baker, the chief executive of National Power, has enjoyed an increase of £115,000 since 1 April, which is an 85 per cent. increase in his salary? The Prime Minister has condemned such increases. Will he use the powers in the Government’s prospectus for the sale of National Power and PowerGen, or is the right hon. Gentleman yet again all talk and no action?

    The Prime Minister : The hon. Gentleman should read the prospectus more carefully. It makes it perfectly clear that we have given an undertaking not to interfere in the commercial decisions of a company. It is interesting to note that the hon. Gentleman thinks it a light matter to break the contract into which we have entered.

     

    Q7. Mr. Anthony Coombs : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 27 June.

    The Prime Minister : I refer my hon. Friend to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Coombs : Will my right hon. Friend confirm that it is widely accepted that minimum wage legislation would destroy upwards of 1 million jobs? Will he also confirm that such minimum wage legislation would have an impact upon the weakest in society–the disabled, the unskilled and the young, precisely those sectors of society which Labour professes to champion but which it is now so cynically betraying?

    The Prime Minister : I entirely agree with my hon. Friend, and I think that the vast majority of people also agree with him. The latest staging post for the Opposition’s stance on this matter was set out rather hilariously in a letter this morning from the hon. Member for Sedgefield (Mr. Blair), who said :

    “I have not accepted that the minimum wage will cost jobs … I have simply accepted that econometric models indicate a potential jobs impact”.

    Those words would make a weasel blush.

    Mr. Wigley : Is the Prime Minister aware of the dismay in Wales last week when the Government published their Green Paper on the future structures of government? That dismay arose because there was nothing in the Green Paper about the all-Wales level of democracy, despite the fact that the Assembly of Welsh Counties, the Association of Welsh Districts and every political party in Wales except the Conservatives support that, and that three of the six Welsh Conservative Members also support such a policy. Will the Prime Minister look at this again to try to get some all- Wales democracy?

    The Prime Minister : I am interested in what the hon. Gentleman says. As he knows, our policy has not been to go in the direction that he proposes. I shall examine and discuss the matter with my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Wales, but it is unlikely that we shall change our present posture.

     

    Q8. Mr. Peter Bottomley : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 27 June.

    The Prime Minister : I refer my hon. Friend to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Bottomley : Will my right hon. Friend turn his mind to the fate of 12-year-old Maria and 10-year-old Anna Gordievsky? Will he continue to take every opportunity to make plain to the President of the USSR, to visiting Russian Members of Parliament and to the world’s press that one of the ways in which we shall judge the new USSR is whether the KGB will let those two young children come to Britain to join their father?

    The Prime Minister : I assure my hon. Friend that I have personally taken this matter up with President Gorbachev in the past. I shall do so again when next we meet, and the matter is frequently raised by my right hon. Friend the Foreign Secretary with his counterpart and at official level with the Soviet authorities.

    Mr. McMaster : Is the Prime Minister aware that in a recent answer to a parliamentary question, the Under-Secretary of State for Scotland with responsibilities for industry, the hon. Member for Eastwood (Mr. Stewart), revealed that 76 per cent. of manufacturing jobs in the Paisley postcode area had been lost between 1979 and 1989? He will be aware that things have become far worse since. Does he agree that that is an unacceptable level of economic and social disaster, or does he agree with the Chancellor of the Exchequer that it is a price well worth paying?

    The Prime Minister : All levels of unemployment are a matter for distress and regret. The only way to ensure that we create jobs that are permanent and are sustained is to have the right economic policies to get inflation down, and to keep it down. There is no other way of ensuring job security for the future. It may sometimes be difficult and uncomfortable, but it is the right policy, and it is the policy to which we shall stick.

     

    Q9. Mr. Cash : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 27 June.

    The Prime Minister : I refer my hon. Friend to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Cash : Does my right hon. Friend accept that he will go to the summit tomorrow with the good wishes and goodwill of all Conservative Members? Given the clearly expressed views of the House yesterday and his own views against the federal super-state, does he agree that the Opposition abdicated their national duty by dividing the House on the matter yesterday?

    The Prime Minister : I am always grateful to have my hon. Friend’s support on these matters. I agree about the irrelevance and irresponsibility of the position that Opposition Front-Bench spokesmen took yesterday. It was adequately described in many national newspapers this morning.

  • PMQT – 16 April 1991

    Below is the text of Prime Minister’s Question Time from 16th April 1991.


    PRIME MINISTER

     

    Engagements

    Q1. Sir Anthony Durant : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Tuesday 16 April.

    The Prime Minister (Mr. John Major) : This morning I had meetings with ministerial colleagues and others. In addition to my duties in the House, I shall be having further meetings later today.

    Sir Anthony Durant : May I congratulate my right hon. Friend on his four-point initiative to deal with the Kurds and Shi’ites, especially the safe haven proposals, which are important? Will he work hard with the agencies to improve aid to the Shi’ites and Kurds and push the United Nations to implement resolutions 678 and 688 so that the Kurds and Shi’ites can return in confidence to their towns and villages and thereby stop this appalling situation?

    The Prime Minister : I am grateful to my hon. Friend. Hundreds of tonnes of aid have already been delivered, of which 220 tonnes have come from the United Kingdom. In addition to the three C130s already there, nine Chinook helicopters operating from Turkey will be fully operational by the end of the week. The two special representatives of the secretary-general are in Iraq and by the end of the week 150 United Nations personnel will be in Iraq to oversee the relief effort. Urgent and intensive international discussions are continuing on a safe haven plan, which I and others believe is the only way forward. Indeed, I believe that it is rapidly gaining ground. Later today, I shall chair a further meeting of Ministers to take stock of aid needs.

    Mr. Kinnock : May I strongly support the Prime Minister in the efforts being made to get aid to the wretched people who are fleeing from Saddam Hussein’s forces? As the agonies of the Kurdish people continue, will the right hon. Gentleman tell me whether he shares my view that the atrocities committed by Saddam Hussein against the Kurdish people mean that the Iraqi dictator has a case to answer under articles 2 and 3 of the genocide convention of 1948? Will the Prime Minister refer the issue of genocide to the United Nations Security Council as a matter of urgency?

    The Prime Minister : I am grateful to the right hon. Gentleman for his first words. I have asked for legal advice on the subject of genocide.

    Mr. Teddy Taylor : As the strict budgetary controls of agricultural spending were effectively blow sky high last Monday when the Council of Ministers voted by 10 to two to go through the ceiling, will my right hon. Friend say what on earth we can do, or is agriculture entirely out of control? In congratulating him on Britain’s being one of the two who voted against, may I ask whether he will tell the consumers and taxpayers of Britain whether we can take any action to hold on to the strict budgetary controls for which we fought so hard?

    The Prime Minister : I agree with my hon. Friend about the importance of keeping strict budgetary control on agriculture and on other items of the European Community budget. We have consistently stuck to that position and we shall continue to argue for it in the Agriculture Council and the other Councils of the Community.

    Mr. Ashdown : Notwithstanding the Prime Minister’s welcome but long- term plans for Kurdish sanctuary in Iraq, does not our present air superiority provide a means and United Nations resolution 688 provide the authority for action now to prevent continuing genocide against the Kurds in Iraq? Is not the only thing lacking for action the political will and international leadership? Why does he still seem reluctant to provide either?

    The Prime Minister : As the right hon. Gentleman is aware, the only comprehensive international plan before the international community is the one that I announced to the European Community on Monday this week. As I said to the House a few moments ago, urgent and intensive international discussions on the plan are continuing at this moment.

    Mr. Churchill : I congratulate my right hon. Friend on his safe haven policies. Will he build on them as soon as possible with our colleagues and partners in the Security Council to ensure that, under United Nations auspices, forces are sent to both the north and south of Iraq to establish at the earliest possible opportunity safe havens into which Saddam Hussein’s armies will not be permitted to go?

    The Prime Minister : I have made it clear to our colleagues in the United Nations and elsewhere that, if the relief effort is harassed or frustrated, in my judgment, under Security Council resolution 688, it is clearly the responsibility of the United Nations to protect both helpers and helped. If necessary, the United Nations would have to act on that responsibility and seek from its members whatever assistance, including military assistance, it might need.

     

    Q2. Mr. Wray : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Tuesday 16 April.

    The Prime Minister : I refer the hon. Gentleman to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Wray : The Prime Minister will be in no doubt that the question on everybody’s lips is about the disgraceful “Panorama” programme which made allegations that the Prime Minister used an accommodation address in Templar street in Lambeth to gain access to the electoral register, a seat on Lambeth council and thus win a seat at Westminster. Will he give an assurance that that accusation is untrue and what action is he about to take?

    The Prime Minister : The qualification for standing for Lambeth council was to be resident within the area. “Panorama” was told on more than one occasion by the lady whose address they gave that I was living in the area, directly opposite her house, at the time and that that fully met the qualification requirements. I cannot explain to the hon. Gentleman why “Panorama” chose not to broadcast that fact.

     

    Q3. Mr. Bowis : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Tuesday 16 April.

    The Prime Minister : I refer the hon. Gentleman to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Bowis : Does my right hon. Friend agree that the success of his policies in bringing down inflation, interest rates and mortgage rates shows that the better way for Britain is the Conservative way to opportunity and that it is getting better and better as the months go by? Does he agree that that is why there is such disappointment on the Opposition Benches and such desperate calls for an early election?

    The Prime Minister : My hon. Friend is right. It is precisely because we were prepared to take tough action on inflation that it is now coming down fast and, as I forecast, interest rates are following it down. The economy will continue to improve in the months ahead and we will continue to extend opportunities by spreading wealth, ownership and choice. No other party in the country can offer that to the British people.

     

    Q4. Mr. Pike : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Tuesday 16 April.

    The Prime Minister : I refer the hon. Gentleman to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Pike : Is not the Prime Minister concerned about the many thousands of struggling pensioners who get a pension increase and immediately lose income support and other transitional arrangements? Is not it time that he ended the practice of giving with one hand and immediately taking back with the other and started to give all pensioners a fair deal?

    The Prime Minister : If that were the policy of the Opposition, any pretence that they might have had of public expenditure control would have gone.

    Mr. John Greenway : Does my right hon. Friend agree that the next decade will be the decade of opportunity for young people, but that one opportunity that the House and the country would rather they did not take is the opportunity to commit crime? Does he agree that in national Crime Prevention Week the one major objective that we should seek is for young people to be deterred from criminal activity?

    The Prime Minister : I certainly agree with my hon. Friend. He will have noticed in particular the initiative on truancy taken this week.

     

    Q5. Mr. Patchett : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Tuesday 16 April.

    The Prime Minister : I refer the hon. Gentleman to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Patchett : Does the Prime Minister feel comfortable with his policies, given the criticism from within his party, both inside and outside the House, or is he merely a victim of an enemy within?

    The Prime Minister : The hon. Gentleman will find that there are millions and millions of people outside the House who support our policies and who will vote for them.

    Mr. Maxwell-Hyslop : Will my right hon. Friend make an important and clear statement today that the British Government’s policy in support of the safety and security of Iraqi Kurds in Iraq is not support for Kurdish insurrection against successive Governments of Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Iran to form a separate state and that activity of that kind gives a spurious strength to the present Government of Iraq to take military action of a genocidal kind against Iraqi Kurds in Iraq?

    The Prime Minister : I have made it clear in the House on previous occasions that our concern in Iraq is to ensure that the Kurds are well treated, safe and protected from repression. That remains our policy.

     

    Cyprus

    Q6. Mr. Corbyn : To ask the Prime Minister, what discussions he has held with the Government of Turkey concerning their occupation of part of Cyprus.

    The Prime Minister : I met the Turkish Prime Minister yesterday and the President of Cyprus last week. My discussion yesterday with the Turkish Prime Minister concentrated on the plight of the Kurds. I urged him to help the international efforts to get the Kurds down from the mountains into areas of Turkey and Iraq where they can receive food and medicine. The Turkish Prime Minister and I spoke briefly about Cyprus later in the day.

    Mr. Corbyn : Perhaps the Prime Minister can tell us what discussions he had with the Prime Minister of Turkey. He must be aware that the British Government are a guarantor of Cypriot independence and that the 1974 invasion of Cyprus by Turkey was condemned by the United Nations. Does not he think that the aim should be the withdrawal of foreign troops from Cyprus and the reunification of the island, with guarantees from all communities to end the terrible time suffered by so many people through the division of the island by military intervention?

    The Prime Minister : I made it entirely clear to the Turkish Prime Minister that we supported the efforts being made by the secretary-general and we hoped that he would make progress speedily towards a satisfactory solution.

    Mr. Anthony Coombs : Will the Prime Minister confirm that Cyprus, a democratic member of the Commonwealth, is the only European country at present forcibly occupied by a foreign power? Does he agree that positive action is necessary to persuade Turkey that it is in its interest and in the interest of the regional stability of the eastern Mediterranean that the reunification of Cyprus as a stable and democratic country is implemented as soon as possible?

    The Prime Minister : I agree with my hon. Friend and the Turkish Government are aware that that is our policy.

     

    Engagements

    Q7. Mr. Wareing : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Tuesday 16 April.

    The Prime Minister : I refer the hon. Gentleman to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Wareing : Is the Prime Minister aware that the answer that he gave to my right hon. Friend the Leader of the Opposition this afternoon will have appalled the whole nation? If a Prime Minister, above anyone, has not yet taken legal advice about the genocide convention, when Kurds are being murdered and tortured every day, it is a disgrace. Indeed, it is a sin that this matter has been allowed to go as far as it has. Will the Prime Minister take action today to instruct our representatives at the United Nations to raise the matter of genocide so that action–even military action–is taken against the butcher of Baghdad?

    The Prime Minister : I note the hon. Gentleman’s remarks with care. It is wise to seek and await proper legal advice on such measures. If the matter is so self-evident, why did not the Leader of the Opposition raise it until yesterday and where has the shadow Foreign Secretary been for the past fortnight?

  • Text of the 1991 Budget – 19 March 1991

    Below is the text of the 1991 Budget, held on 19th March 1991 and presented in the House of Commons by the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Norman Lamont.


    Budget Statement

    Mr. Deputy Speaker : Before I call the Chancellor of the Exchequer, it may be for the convenience of hon. Members if I remind them that, at the end of the Chancellor’s speech, copies of the Budget resolutions will be available to hon. Members in the Vote Office.

    The Chancellor of the Exchequer (Mr. Norman Lamont) : Like, I suspect, most Chancellors, I have found the preparation of this, my first Budget, very exciting. As usual, I have read a huge amount of speculation in the press over the past few weeks about the contents of the Budget. I have also learnt a number of interesting things. For example, I was surprised to read last Wednesday that I am almost as well known as Desert Orchid – and I have not yet run in the Gold Cup. Actually, Desert Orchid and I have much in common : we are both greys; vast sums of money ride on our performance; the Opposition hope we will fall at the first fence; and we are both carrying too much weight. The crucial difference is that Chancellors are never favourites.

    I have had the advantage of serving at the Treasury under two Chancellors : my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister, who last year delivered a notable Budget for savers, and before that my right hon. Friend the Member for Blaby (Mr. Lawson). If I may make a personal observation, working for my right hon. Friend the Member for Blaby was always stimulating and exciting, and I am extremely grateful for his encouragement over the years. My admiration and respect for him remain undimmed. [Interruption.]

    Mr. Deputy Speaker : Order. I know that this is an exciting day in the House, but perhaps we should try to behave like the mother of all Parliaments.

    Mr. Lamont : I intend to carry forward my predecessor’s work. My central economic aim is to bring inflation down and keep it down. Beyond that, my objective is to encourage enterprise by creating a broadly based tax system that allows markets to do their job with the minimum of distortion and Government interference.

    Although there is no scope this year for an overall reduction in taxes, my Budget today will include measures to help business through the recession in the short term and to encourage it to invest for the longer term. It will provide assistance for families. It will also further the process of tax reform and make some radical changes in the tax system.

    As usual, I shall begin with a review of the economic situation and prospects. I shall then deal with monetary policy and public finances. Finally, I shall present my tax proposals.

    The “Financial Statement and Budget Report”, together with a number of press releases filling out the details of my proposals, will be available from the Vote Office as soon as I have sat down.

    ECONOMIC SITUATION AND PROSPECTS

    I refer first to international developments. The past year has brought recession to a number of major industrial countries including the United States, Canada and Australia. Growth in Germany has been sustained by reunification ; but elsewhere in Europe, activity has slowed and industrial production has fallen in recent months in Spain, Italy and France. In five of the seven leading industrial nations, industrial output is now lower than it was a year ago.

    The basic cause is the same everywhere : very rapid growth in the industrialised world during the 1980s led to the re-emergence of inflationary pressures. A period of slower growth was needed to stop inflation taking hold again.

    In the autumn, the slowdown was magnified by the Gulf crisis. Business and consumer confidence were badly dented, first, by the uncertainties and the sharp rise in oil prices that followed the invasion of Kuwait, and then the prospect of war. Travel and tourism were especially hard-hit.

    Mercifully, the war was brief and the outcome successful. Confidence is recovering and that will strengthen the economic upturn when the time comes ; and the fall in oil prices has already improved the outlook for inflation.

    So although 1991 as a whole will show little growth in the seven major economies – a 1 per cent. increase in industrial production compared to 5 per cent. in 1988 – the slowdown is unlikely to last long. Inflation is already moderating in those countries that are in recession, and activity should start to recover later this year in north America, helped by continued expansion in Germany and Japan. In the United Kingdom, the recession came after eight years of growth averaging 3 per cent. a year. This sustained growth bred confidence and that in turn led to a quite unprecedented rise in borrowing. Personal borrowing increased by nearly 40 per cent. in 1988 alone, to reach £54 billion – and a new record for the ratio of debt to income. This produced a sharp drop in the personal saving ratio, which coincided with a massive boom in investment by companies.

    In itself, the rise of investment – nearly 80 per cent. between 1981 and 1989 – was welcome, but the economy could not go on expanding at that rate. Some firms and individuals became over-extended and we saw a deterioration in the current account and a wholly unwelcome rise in inflation.

    It is easy, with the benefit of hindsight, to say that policy should have been tighter; and, once the problem became clear, policy was indeed tightened. We ran a large budget surplus. Interest rates were raised, and they had to stay high until there were unmistakable signs that excess demand pressure had been removed. That took longer than we – or outside commentators – expected, and the delay meant that the adjustment, when it came, was all the sharper.

    Since the middle of last year, individuals and companies have been taking steps to reduce their borrowing. Consumer spending has fallen back, and the saving ratio has risen sharply to 10.8 per cent. Firms have found it hard going. Profits have weakened, caught in the pincer of low turnover and rising costs, and the burden of debt taken on in the late 1980s has proved a heavy one.

    It is not surprising, therefore, that business investment has fallen from the heights of 1989 and early 1990. Stocks are now being reduced, and companies are making strenuous efforts to cut costs. That has led to a sharp increase in unemployment during recent months, although there are welcome signs that firms are continuing to invest in skills and training. I expect output in 1991 as a whole to be about 2 per cent. less than in 1990. Much of that fall, of course, has already happened. It is largely behind us and, as I shall be explaining in a moment, the resumption of growth should not be long delayed.

    The process of retrenchment has been painful, as it always is, but it has been necessary and is now producing results. The current account deficit has improved sharply – especially the balance on manufactures – even though world trade has been weak. Imports have fallen, while exports in some sectors, notably cars, have continued to grow strongly – testimony to the fact that industry is immeasurably better placed today than it was 10 years ago.

    No one can doubt that inflation is on the way down. There has already been a fall of 2 percentage points since the peak last October, and there is widespread agreement that the fall in inflation will continue through 1991 and into 1992.

    The prospects are now better than they appeared at the time of the autumn statement. The February survey by the Confederation of British Industry showed that the balance of firms expecting to increase prices was at its lowest level ever. The forecast published today, taking account of the effect of the Budget measures, is for inflation to fall to an average of 4 per cent. in the last quarter of this year and below 4 per cent. in the first half of 1992. The prospect, therefore, is that we will narrow the inflation gap with Europe remarkably quickly.

    In the mid-1980s, we did get inflation briefly below 4 per cent., and we saw the advantages that followed. We are about to do so again, and again we will reap the benefits. Lower inflation, and the lower interest rates that go with it, will be a powerful force for recovery.

    One of the lessons that I have learnt from years of grappling with economic statistics is that it is difficult to be certain about the past, let alone about the future. It is always especially difficult to predict the timing of turning points in the economy. However, there are good reasons to expect that the recovery will begin around the middle of this year, although initially it may be slow. As we found 10 years ago, confidence revives as inflation comes down. This time, the ending of the Gulf war will give the revival an added boost. Just as falling consumer spending contributed to the onset of recession, so returning consumer confidence is likely to lead the recovery. At the same time, the reduction of stocks is likely to slow and the United Kingdom will benefit from the upturn in the United States and elsewhere in the world.

    As a result, I expect output to stabilise in the next few months and then to increase by about 2 per cent. between the first half of this year and the first half of 1992. Looking further ahead, our projections show growth of about 3 per cent. a year as the economy recovers further.

    The easing of demand pressures has already brought a marked improvement in our current account. As the House will have noticed, there can be lags not just between policies and their effects, but between the effects in the real world and their appearance in the official statistics. As a result of the recent revisions of the figures for invisible imports and exports, the current account deficit for last year is now estimated at under £13 billion, £2 billion less than forecast at the time of last year’s Budget. This year, I expect the deficit to be halved to £6 billion, about 1 per cent. of national income.

    Regrettably, unemployment is likely to go on rising for a while yet, even after the recovery has started. How far and how fast it rises will depend, in part, on the speed with which pay settlements come down – and come down they must, eventually, to the levels prevailing in other ERM countries. There is no escape route through devaluation, and firms know this.

    Fortunately, a sharp fall in inflation is in prospect, and the reforms that we have introduced over the past decade have led to more pay flexibility. Some firms have already deferred pay settlements or agreed pay pauses. The more firms that follow their lead, the sooner we can reverse the trend in unemployment, and start creating jobs again.

    To sum up, the prospect for the year ahead is for an end to the recession, growth of about 2 per cent. in the 12 months to the first half of 1992, and inflation below 4 per cent. This does not seem to me an unpromising outlook.

    For the longer term, there is every reason to be optimistic about the United Kingdom in the 1990s. Recessions are always painful, but they are an inescapable feature of market economies – and they are temporary. Longer-term growth depends on having a thriving competitive private sector. That we now have, thanks to the reforms of the past 10 years.

    If I may confess it, I do not believe in miracles, but I do believe that the right policies, courageously and consistently applied year by year, can produce a transformation in an economy, and that is what happened in the 1980s.

    So now we can build on real achievements : a record number of new businesses, faster growth in manufacturing productivity than in any major industrialised country, and faster growth in investment than in any of those countries except Japan. These achievements have helped us over the past seven years to maintain our share of world trade, after 30 years of decline. They made the 1980s the first decade since the war when the United Kingdom grew faster than Germany and France.

    MONETARY POLICY

    There is one proviso – and it is a crucial one. We must get inflation down, and this time we must keep it down. The overriding lesson of the past few years is that the battle against inflation is never won. It is fatally easy to miss the warning signs, and hard decisions have few friends.

    The costs of even a temporary reverse are high. Squeezing out inflation means high interest rates, frustrated hopes, bankruptcies and lost jobs. But the costs of living with inflation are even higher – as those who remember the 1970s know only too well. Inflation makes our industry uncompetitive; it destroys savings; it creates uncertainty and strife; and a high rate of inflation can quickly get out of control. High rates of inflation are never stable.

    Frankly, after the experience of recent years, it surprises me how many people are urging me to let up on inflation. It may not seem much of a threat for the next six or 12 months, but I am concerned with the year after that and with the rest of the decade. The Government’s decision to join the exchange rate mechanism last October provides a more secure framework for combating inflation in the future. That is its real significance. Linking sterling to other currencies with a proven track record of low inflation will be an added discipline on monetary policy.

    We committed ourselves to that discipline after lengthy debate, and our decision was widely supported on both sides of the House, and in the country at large. The time has now come to apply ourselves wholeheartedly to the task of making our membership a success. So far, it has been. Sterling has traded comfortably within its band during a difficult period. The sterling index is much where it was just before ERM entry, and our patient approach has meant that recent reductions in interest rates have been well received by the markets. They have recognised that they are consistent with our ERM obligations, as well as fully justified by the domestic economy. Our entry into the ERM means that I have had to reassess the role of domestic indicators in guiding monetary policy. It should go without saying that interest rates will be set to honour our commitment to stay within the ERM band, but there is still a most important role for domestic monetary targets. All the major countries within the ERM take the same view.

    Over the past year, M0 – the narrow measure of money–has continued to provide timely evidence of monetary developments. Its annual rate of growth has been on a downward trend since last May. Since August, it has been within its target range of 1 to 5 per cent. For the year ahead, I propose to set a new, slightly lower target range of 0 to 4 per cent. That is consistent with my determination to exert further downward pressure on inflation. I shall also continue to watch closely other indicators of monetary conditions, especially M4 – the measure of broad money – and asset prices.

    There should be no sustained conflict between domestic monetary indicators and our ERM obligations. By far the best way of minimising the risk that conflicts will arise in the future is to build up credibility within the ERM. The policies that are necessary to defeat inflation and to sustain the exchange rate are the same.

    For the time being, I have no plans to move to a narrow ERM band. That remains, of course, our longer-term intention, but the timing of the move must depend on the progress we make in reducing inflation.

    PUBLIC FINANCE AND FISCAL POLICY

    I come now to the public sector finances.

    Over the 1980s, my predecessors transformed our public finances and made them the envy of fellow Finance Ministers throughout the world. They first reduced and then eliminated our budget deficit, and in the last three years they repaid £26 billion of debt. The ratio of public sector debt to gross domestic product has been reduced from 50 per cent. in 1979 to under 30 per cent. now, to the benefit of this and future generations.

    I am not going to fritter that legacy away. The firm control of public expenditure remains at the centre of our strategy. I will continue to aim for budget balance in the medium term. It is a simple rule, which is well understood and requires the Government to finance their spending honestly.

    Our entry into the ERM does not alter the requirement for fiscal policy to buttress monetary policy and play its part in curbing inflation; so sound public finances will remain central to our strategy for the 1990s.

    However, it is one of the more reliable laws of economics – not that there are so many – that the budget balance varies markedly over the economic cycle. When activity is growing strongly, tax revenues rise relative to income, and lower unemployment brings lower social security payments. We saw this in operation in the late 1980s when we ran large budget surpluses.

    Those forces go into reverse when the economy slows down. That is why the Budget surplus has shrunk over the past two years, and why we are now likely to see the temporary re-emergence of a public sector borrowing requirement.

    Those cyclical swings in the budget balance can play a useful role in offsetting the swings in private sector borrowing, and in stabilising the economy. They come about automatically, without the need for difficult judgments about the state of the economy. It is entirely consistent with the medium-term approach that I have already outlined to tolerate those swings in the fiscal position, but I am not persuaded of the case for going beyond that.

    In 1990-91, the Government’s finances have been affected both by the onset of the recession and by the Gulf war. However, as a result of the assistance we have received from our allies, the net effect of the war on the PSBR has not been as great as we feared. The outturn on the public expenditure planning total is expected to be a little lower than we forecast in the autumn statement. Overall, despite the war, I expect to achieve a further debt repayment this year of approaching £1 billion.

    For the year ahead, I judge that a deficit of £8 billion can fairly reflect the strength of cyclical influences. For the same reason, I think it will be right to tolerate a somewhat larger deficit in 1992-93, for it takes time for the effects of lower activity to feed through fully on to revenue. The most notable is corporation tax, which is both highly sensitive to the economic cycle and paid in arrears.

    Those deficits will disappear once output has returned to normal levels – just as the surpluses of the late 1980s did. Prudence dictates that I base my fiscal plans on a gradual recovery in output to its long-term trend. This implies a correspondingly gradual return to budget balance, but in practice the speed with which this happens will depend on the exact course of the upturn.

    To summarise : for the year ahead, I am budgeting for a PSBR of £8 billion, 1 per cent. of GDP, and I expect a somewhat larger deficit in the following year. These deficits reflect the effect of lower activity on the public finances and are fully consistent with the aim of a balanced budget over the economic cycle.

    In order to hold to this prudent fiscal stance, my Budget today will have a broadly neutral effect in the coming year, but will produce a modest increase in revenue in 1992-93.

    BUSINESS TAXATION

    I now turn to my tax proposals. In preparing this part of my speech I have been guided by great Finance Ministers of the past – first, by Gladstone, whose advice on delivering tax proposals to the House of Commons was :

    “Get up your figures thoroughly and then give them out as if the whole House was interested”.

    Secondly, I have perhaps been influenced by Colbert, the French Finance Minister, who said :

    “The art of taxation consists in so plucking the goose as to obtain the largest possible amount of feathers with the smallest possible amount of hissing”.

    In framing my tax proposals, I have also sought to address a number of the concerns which have been put to me and to carry forward the process of tax reform initiated by my predecessors. Above all, I have produced a Budget for business. I therefore begin with business taxation.

    In this country, there are 50,000 large companies paying the main rate of corporation tax, nearly 1 million other companies and 3 million unincorporated businesses, many of them very small, employing a handful of people at most. We should never forget those firms. My measures are designed to benefit businesses in each of those categories.

    I have been particularly concerned about businesses which are experiencing cash flow problems, often made worse by late-paying customers. I shall therefore be announcing measures which should give immediate help to businesses’ liquidity.

    My first proposals concern the value added tax regime. For 18 years, ever since VAT was introduced, the rule has been that businesses become liable for VAT when they send out bills, not when they are paid, so some traders end up paying VAT even though their customers never pay them. In his Budget last year, my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister introduced an entirely new system for giving traders relief on bad debts. That comes into effect on 1 April and extends relief to all bad debts which are at least two years old. Many business organisations have complained to me that that waiting period is too long. I now propose to reduce it from two years to one. This will enable businesses to claim relief next year on the bad debts that they incurred in 1990-91 and 1989-90. The new scheme will boost businesses’ cash flow next year by some £340 million. Actually, for the smallest firms, the problem of reclaiming VAT on bad debts need not arise in the first place because they can use the cash accounting scheme. That allows smaller firms to pay no VAT at all until they receive payment from their customers. Well over 100, 000 traders are already using the scheme, but we estimate that a further 300,000 could do so.

    Customs and Excise will therefore be taking steps to publicise the cash accounting scheme more widely. There is another aspect of the VAT regime which I know causes concern – the operation of the serious misdeclaration penalty, which came into effect last April. There have been widespread complaints that the automatic penalty that it imposes – 30 per cent. of the tax wrongly declared – is too severe and unfair to those who make minor mistakes.

    I accept that the penalty in its current form is an unnecessarily blunt instrument. We will therefore undertake a thorough review so that the SMP system can be reformed in the 1992 Finance Bill. I have also asked Customs to make some immediate changes to the rules, giving traders more time to put mistakes right themselves without incurring a penalty. I do not wish to pre-empt the review but, while it takes place, I am reducing the rate of penalty from 30 per cent. to 20 per cent.

    Accounting for VAT can be an onerous duty for small traders. When VAT was introduced, we exempted firms with the lowest turnovers from registration. Since then, the registration threshold has been indexed.

    European Community constraints have meant that, in the past, we have not been able to increase the threshold by more than the rate of inflation. At the end of last year, however, we pressed the case with the Commission to increase the VAT threshold. It responded very positively, and I therefore feel able to go far beyond indexation and to increase the turnover limit for registration by no less than 40 per cent. to £35,000, taking it to its highest level in real terms since the introduction of VAT in 1973. This will benefit up to 150, 000 traders. The cost of raising this threshold will be £25 million in the first year, rising to £40 million in 1993-94.

    I have two further deregulatory measures to announce, which will benefit very small businesses. At present, all employers have to pay over the pay-as-you-earn and national insurance contributions that they collect from their employees 14 days after the end of each month, but the burden of collection falls unevenly. Large firms are amply compensated for the trouble and cost of collecting the tax by the benefits of holding the money for this period, but small employers are not.

    I have a proposal that will reduce the burden on some 700,000 smaller employers. From May onwards, employers making PAYE and national insurance payments of less than £400 each month will pay quarterly, not monthly. This will reduce the administrative burden on firms and help their cash flow, at a one-off cost to the Exchequer of £210 million.

    I have one further measure to announce to help very small businesses account for tax. Last year, for the first time, businesses with a turnover below £10,000 were allowed to send the Inland Revenue a simple three-line statement instead of detailed business accounts. This is an important deregulatory measure which cuts out time-consuming paper work for up to 1 million people. From April 1992, I propose to raise the £10,000 limit, so as to allow up to million more people to benefit.

    There is a case for making a more radical simplification of the taxation of the self-employed. The Inland Revenue will shortly be publishing a consultative document containing our proposals. I am concerned that the system of income tax appeals can sometimes operate unfairly, in particular because there is no provision for the award of costs. My noble and learned Friend the Lord Chancellor and I want to deal with criticisms by the Council on Tribunals about the absence of proper rules for hearing tax appeals. We shall be publishing a consultative paper which will include proposals about the award of costs where either party has acted unreasonably. I have one proposal to limit the impact of capital gains tax on entrepreneurs and on our growing venture capital industry. I have in mind particularly those who may give up safe managerial positions to set out on the risky road of running their own business. For those people, the possibility of a large capital gains tax charge can be a deterrent. I have considered whether it would be suitable and sensible to introduce specific rules for venture capital, but I have concluded that that would be extremely difficult.

    However, one way in which we can help business men and women to reap the rewards of their efforts is to improve the relief available to them when they retire and have to realise the asset that they have created. That is why I propose to reduce the qualifying age for capital gains tax retirement relief from 60 to 55, and to raise the limits on it. From today, the first £150,000 of capital gains and half of the next £450,000 will be exempt from capital gains tax. This will be a powerful incentive to entrepreneurs to start new businesses.

    I have one other important change relating to capital gains tax on small businesses. Under existing law, only companies can offset their trading losses against their capital gains. I propose to give unincorporated businesses similar treatment. This will help small businesses if they wish to sell off assets to help themselves through a difficult period.

    In addition to the measures that I have announced for small business, I wish to propose some changes to corporation tax. In his Budget last year, my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister raised the profit limits that govern the corporation tax rates paid by smaller companies. He increased the ceiling below which single companies pay corporation tax at 25 per cent. from £150,000 to £200,000, and the upper limit above which they pay the full rate from £750,000 to £1 million.

    I propose this year to raise the limits again by a quarter. That means a total increase of 150 per cent. in three years. As a result, companies will need to be earning profits of more than £250,000 before they are liable to pay more than 25 per cent. Companies will not have to pay the full rate of corporation tax until their profits reach £1,250,000 a year. This will benefit 30,000 companies. In 1984, my right hon. Friend the Member for Blaby made a radical reform of corporation tax. In his time as Chancellor, the main rate of corporation tax was reduced in stages from 52 per cent. to 35 per cent., thus boosting companies’ post-tax profits, encouraging profitable investment at home and overseas and increasing the incentive for overseas firms to invest in Britain.

    I believe that the philosophy behind his reforms – to widen the tax base, but to reduce the rates – was the right one. It is a policy that has been welcomed by industry. It allows business men, and not Governments, to decide how much to invest and in what to invest. It set the pattern for similar reforms in many countries throughout the world and ushered in an increase in investment of 50 per cent. between 1984 and 1990.

    I propose today to take a further step in that direction. Corporation tax rates have remained unchanged at 35 per cent. since 1986, but since then the basic rate of income tax has been reduced from 30p to 25p and the top rate from 60p to 40p. I believe that the time has come to cut the main rate of corporation tax again. However, I am also aware that cutting the rate of corporation tax only helps companies that are making a profit. Many businesses that have prospered in recent years have moved into loss this year. A cut in corporation tax does not help them and nor, in some cases, do existing arrangements for the carry-back of losses.

    I am taking two measures to improve company cash flow. I am cutting by 1 per cent. to 34 per cent. the main rate of corporation tax, applied retrospectively to profits earned in the financial year 1990. This will give an immediate boost to the cash flow of companies that were profitable in the year just ending. It will benefit not only companies paying at the main rate, but the 30,000 other companies with profits between the lower and upper profits limits.

    To help profitable companies that have just moved into loss, I propose to extend the carry-back period for trading losses from one year to three. That means that more companies making losses will qualify for tax rebates in 1992-93 – valued at £250 million – which will help them to carry on through this difficult period.

    My main concern in this Budget is to encourage profitable firms to go on investing in Britain’s future. The best way in which to do that is to increase still further the post-tax return on successful investment projects. For that reason, I am cutting the main rate of corporation tax on profits earned in the 1991 financial year by two percentage points, to 33 per cent.

    The two reductions in the main rate, from 35 to 33 per cent, will together cost £380 million in 1991-92 and £830 million in 1992-93. They will give us the lowest rate among our major competitors – lower than that of the United States, and the lowest in the European Community.

    SUPPLY SIDE

    The 1980s were years of remarkable progress in our economy, but even more striking was the change in attitudes. The crucial importance of the market is now widely accepted in this country, and even more widely accepted in the House. There is a much greater acknowledgement of the fact that market forces and competition play a vital part in shaping our economy. That remarkable change in ideas and attitudes is the lasting legacy and achievement of my right hon. Friend the Member for Finchley (Mrs. Thatcher).

    My right hon. Friend recognised that the key to a better performance by the economy in the long term lay in improving the supply side; and, over the past decade, that has been the aim of our tax policy, trade union and labour market reform, our competition policy, deregulation and privatisation. But, if the United Kingdom economy is to perform to its full potential, we still need a more flexible labour market and a better-skilled work force. I have a number of further measures to announce to that end.

    If wages are inflexible, the burden of recession falls disproportionately on jobs : it is the only way for employers to cut costs. There is a considerable prize if we can get pay to take some of the strain. In 1987, we introduced a new tax relief to get profit-related pay off the ground. There are now about 1,250 such schemes in total, involving nearly 300,000 employees; but there can and should be many more, so I propose to make the scheme more attractive.

    At present, half an employee’s profit-related pay is tax-free. From 1 April, PRP will be free of all tax up to the present limits. It is worth up to a full £1,000 to a basic-rate taxpayer. For some, that could be worth as much as 6p off the income tax rate.

    There is another way in which employees can and should enjoy a stake in the companies for which they work – through becoming shareholders in them. Employee share schemes have made a great deal of progress over the past 10 years. By the end of March last year, 2 million employees had benefited from shares or options worth more than £6.5 billion. Too often, however, employee share schemes have been directed solely at highly paid company executives. I believe strongly that valuable benefits of this kind should be extended to the whole work force.

    I have given serious consideration to limiting executive share schemes solely to companies with all-employee schemes in place, but I have instead decided to rely on the carrot rather than the stick. From January next year, the price of shares under executive options may be set at a modest discount of up to 15 per cent. of the shares’ market value if – but only if – the company has an all-employee share scheme.

    I also propose to increase substantially the limits on individual participation in approved all-employee share schemes, and to allow companies tax relief on the costs that they incur in setting up approved employee share schemes and statutory employee share ownership plans.

    Another aspect of the supply side that needs improvement is training. A well-trained labour force is an important element in any firm’s success. Employers know that and are acting on it. The 1990 labour force survey shows an 85 per cent. increase in the number of employees receiving job-related training since 1984. Despite the recession, the last CBI trends survey reported that over 75 per cent. of employers expected to spend at least as much on training in the next 12 months as they had last year and 29 per cent. expected to spend even more.

    However, more and more individuals are also choosing to take responsibility for their own training. Employers can get relief on the training they provide as a normal business expense, yet at present the tax system generally gives no relief to an individual who decides to pay for training to improve his or her skills. That cannot be right. If we want a better trained, more flexible work force, we should encourage people who want to help themselves. I propose to do just that. I am introducing a tax relief for the fees paid by an individual for training towards most national vocational qualifications and their Scottish equivalents. From April 1992, basic rate tax will be deducted automatically from the fees for qualifying courses, so non-taxpayers will benefit as well as taxpayers. Among those who stand to gain are women wishing to get back to work after having children.

    OTHER BUSINESS MEASURES

    Many hon. Members have pressed the case for helping two specific industries this year : shipping and films. While I sympathise with their aims, I have to say that there is a limit to the extent to which we can – or should – bend the tax regime to meet the special needs of any particular industry.

    The Gulf hostilities have reminded us of the important contribution which our Merchant Navy can make to our defence. I recognise that there is a strategic case for measures to encourage shipping companies to draw their crews from seamen in the United Kingdom, who would be willing and able to serve in time of war. Towards this end, I propose a further relaxation of the rules giving tax relief to seafarers working mainly overseas. This will mean that more seafarers will be exempt from United Kingdom tax on their overseas earnings. The film industry makes an important contribution to entertainment and culture in this country. The industry has put forward a number of proposals, but having studied these carefully, I am afraid I cannot accept them. However, I remain sympathetic, and if it has any alternative proposals that it wishes to put to me over the coming year, I will very happily consider them.

    I know that the tax treatment of foreign exchange gains and losses causes difficulties for many businesses. This is one of the most complex and intractable areas of the tax code. Our 1989 consultative document elicited a valuable response but no consensus on the way forward. I am publishing today a further document setting out my specific proposals for reform, which I trust will bring greater rationality to this very important and complex area of the tax system.

    I have also to correct one defect in the law affecting building societies. In a recent judgment, the House of Lords concluded that regulations covering the 1986 composite rate transitional provisions for building societies were technically invalid. If I were to take no action about this, there would be a windfall gain to building societies – not their depositors – of £250 million, distributed arbitrarily according to their accounting dates in 1985-86. I have therefore decided to include legislation in the Finance Bill to establish, as the Government and Parliament intended, that interest and dividends paid by societies in these transitional periods may be taxed at 1985-86 rates.

    TRUSTS

    I turn now to trusts. In 1988, as Financial Secretary, I announced a review of their tax treatment. Today, I am publishing a consultative document on possible changes to the income tax and capital gains tax regime of United Kingdom resident trusts. My proposals include an alternative structure of tax rates, which would bring the treatment of trusts more into line with the treatment of individuals. They would also help to streamline the administration of trusts, saving work for trustees and their advisers.

    We have also been reviewing the tax treatment of non-resident trusts. This raises an important issue of principle. In recent years, the use of non-resident trusts as a means of avoiding capital gains tax has increased. I do not think that it is right for a relatively small number of wealthy people to shift very large assets into offshore trusts simply in order to avoid United Kingdom tax. Such people have already benefited from the reductions in the higher rate of income tax. I therefore propose to introduce measures to counter this tax avoidance and to prevent a revenue loss of up to £100 million in a full year.

    CHARITIES

    I turn now to charities. While people’s real incomes have risen by over a third since 1979, charitable giving has more than doubled, partly as a result of the measures taken by my predecessors to encourage more giving. Tax reliefs for charities are now worth at least £800 million a year. Today I have some modest improvements to announce to the tax regime for charities.

    I have two measures that should boost giving by businesses. The first is a new relief from income and corporation tax to encourage business gifts of equipment to schools and to other educational establishments.

    The second concerns the gift aid scheme introduced last year. This allows companies and individuals to get tax relief on cash donations to charities up to a limit of £5 million a year, under the gift aid scheme. Company groups have found that the division of this upper limit between them prevents them from donating as much as they would like. To overcome this problem, I propose to abolish the limit altogether from today. In recent years, there has been a remarkable increase in corporate donations to charities. I hope that this further measure will encourage companies to give even more.

    I also propose to adjust some existing VAT reliefs for charities and to ease the conditions for the relief from car tax for vehicles leased to disabled people.

    SPORT AND THE ARTS

    I now come to a proposal to benefit both sport and the arts. Last year, my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister reduced pool betting duty, on the condition that the benefit was passed to the Football Trust. Following the success of that measure, a proposal has been put to me by one of the pools promoters for a new foundation for both sport and the arts.

    League football benefited from last year’s Budget measure, and racing benefits from the horse racing betting levy. This new foundation is intended to provide assistance to other sports and to the arts. It will be financed by contributions collected by the pools promoters along with the weekly pools betting stakes, and should raise some £40 million a year.

    On the understanding that all the main pools companies agree to participate and that the full amount would be passed on to a new trust established on satisfactory terms, I would be willing to reduce pool betting duty a final time – from 40 per cent. to 37 per cent. These arrangements would be subject to a review in four years’ time. They should make a further £20 million a year available – giving £60 million a year in total – to the foundation in order to support both sport and the arts.

    EXCISE DUTIES

    I now come to excise duties. First, I propose to raise the duties on alcoholic drinks to maintain their real value. That means that the duties will rise from 6 o’clock tonight by 9.3 per cent. – in line with the increase in the retail prices index in the year to December 1990. That will put about 2p on a pint of beer, 9p on a bottle of wine and around 56p on a bottle of spirits.

    I will also be legislating to change the basis on which beer is taxed. The existing system of taxing the so-called “worts” was introduced by my predecessor, Mr. Gladstone. It will now be replaced by one in which the end product, the beer itself, is taxed. The new system will relate the duty more closely to the alcoholic strength of the beer – with a higher tax levied on strong lagers than on low alcohol beers.

    I propose increasing all tobacco duties by 15 per cent. – well above the rate of inflation. This will add about 16p to the price of a packet of 20 king size cigarettes, and, I regret to say, around 8p to a packet of small cigars.

    There are strong health arguments for a big duty increase on tobacco. In recent years, the duty has fallen in real terms, and cigarette consumption, having declined in the early 1980s, has since begun to turn up again. Raising the duty will help to counter this unwelcome trend.

    The motor car imposes large costs on others in the form of pollution and congestion. I have decided therefore to increase the duties on petrol and DERV by 15 per cent, giving the private motorist a strong incentive to choose more fuel-efficient vehicles, and ensuring that those who pollute most, pay most. This is fully in line with the policy set out last year in the Government’s White Paper on the environment.

    A litre of leaded petrol will rise by nearly 4p, a litre of unleaded by about 3p and a litre of diesel by just over 3p. The tax differential between leaded and unleaded will increase, giving a further boost to the take-up of unleaded. I propose to freeze vehicle excise duty for private cars and light vehicles at £100, for the sixth year running, and also to freeze VED for all heavy goods vehicles.

    BENEFITS IN KIND

    Many motorists do not own their own cars but drive those provided by their employers. The scales for taxing the private use of company cars have been substantially increased in recent Budgets, but many employers continue to pay their employees in cars rather than in money. I propose to increase the car scales again this year by 20 per cent. This increase will yield £190 million in 1991-92 and £250 million in 1992-93.

    If people are paid in kind, there is no reason why they should be taxed more lightly than people paid in cash, yet our present system also gives employers an incentive to provide employees with cars rather than cash. Under our present arrangements, they avoid making any contribution to the national insurance fund on the benefit that the employee receives from private use of a car.

    I propose that company cars and fuel should now become liable for national insurance contributions, assessed according to the scale charges used for taxation. My right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Social Security will introduce a Bill to that end. Employers will pay at the main rate, but there will be no change for employees.

    Employers’ national insurance contributions on cars and fuel will yield an extra £610 million a year of contributions. This will reduce an anomaly in the national insurance contributions system, making it more neutral between different kinds of payment, and will widen the national insurance contributions base.

    These new arrangements will take effect from April, but contributions will be collected annually in arrears, so employers will not be asked to pay their first contribution until June 1992. They are already familiar with the scale charges used for the tax so they should be able to make the necessary calculations with the minimum of extra work. They are already familiar with the scale charges.

    I turn now to what I regard as one of the greatest scourges of modern life. I refer to the mobile telephone. I propose to bring the benefit of car phones into income tax and to simplify the tax treatment of mobile phones by introducing a standard charge on the private use of such phones provided by an employer. Tax will be paid of £200 for each phone for 1991-92. I hope that, as a result of this measure, restaurants will be quieter and the roads will be safer.

    SAVING

    I have already drawn attention to the imbalance between savings and investment and its effects in the late 1980s. As companies found more and more opportunities to invest, we needed more savings; but instead, the saving ratio fell. In successive Budgets, my predecessors introduced new tax incentives to save. Many forms of saving now enjoy a highly privileged tax position.

    Last year in particular, my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister announced a new scheme, the tax-exempt special savings account. TESSA has proved a spectacular success since it arrived on the savings scene nearly three months ago, and has encouraged the savings habit among ordinary taxpayers. Already, over 1.5 million people have opened accounts.

    My right hon. Friend also announced in his Budget last year the abolition of composite rate tax. From 6 April, non-taxpayers will no longer have to pay tax on their accounts with banks and building societies. These are far-reaching reforms, which need time to settle down and take effect, so this is not the year to disturb the regime that we have just put in place, or to risk causing confusion with further schemes. My main concern has been to consolidate the system that we already have, although I have some modest changes to announce.

    I propose to raise the capital gains annual exempt amount to £5,500 and the inheritance tax threshold to £140,000 this year in line with inflation.

    National Savings continue to play an important role, particularly for small savers. This summer, I propose to introduce a new National Savings children’s bond for children under 16. There will also be a new issue of fixed-interest savings certificates, with a maximum investment of £5,000 compared with £1,000 on the last issue. Other changes to National Savings products will be set out in a press release issued today.

    I am also removing the restrictions on friendly societies writing tax-exempt life insurance policies for children, and increasing the limit on premiums for their tax-exempt policies generally from £150 to £200.

    Personal equity plans remain an important means of promoting direct share ownership. Since their introduction in 1987, about 1.2 million PEPs have been taken out, and over £3 billion has been invested. I have some further changes to announce.

    First, I intend to allow investment in European Community, as well as United Kingdom, shares both for individuals and for unit and investment trusts. Second, to promote the development of single-company PEPs, I propose to allow investors to put up to £3,000 a year in a single- company PEP, as well as up to £6,000 a year, as now, in a general plan. This will allow total investments of £9,000 a year.

    While single-company PEPs are available to any investor, I believe that they provide a natural home for shares acquired under employee share schemes. I therefore propose to allow shares acquired under approved all-employee share schemes to be transferred directly into the company PEP, with no charge to capital gains tax.

    Employee share schemes and PEPs have encouraged individuals to become shareholders, but many people have bought their first shares in big offers, mainly privatisations. The first of these to catch the public’s imagination was British Telecom. The Government currently still own some 48 per cent. of the shares, and I can announce today that I intend to sell part of this holding in the coming year.

    Privatisations have been a great success. The next step is to encourage people to invest in shares more generally. One problem is that, to the small investor, the stock market can seem remote, intimidating and somewhat expensive. The development of a genuine retail market for shares in high streets up and down the country would be highly desirable.

    To give this the boost it deserves, the Government are considering a change in the way in which they market privatisations. For future large flotations, I am today inviting proposals from the private sector for arrangements to distribute shares directly to the public through high street retail networks.

    I hope that there will be proposals both from financial institutions – banks or building societies – and from companies outside the financial sector. If satisfactory proposals can be developed in time, I will consider using such a high-street network in the sale of British Telecom shares.

    Such a high street network could be used for primary issues, not only by the Government but by private sector companies and, in the longer term, it could provide a cheap and accessible way for individuals to buy and sell in the secondary market.

    MORTGAGE INTEREST RELIEF

    The measures that I have just announced will encourage people to save, but there is another side to the story, for the fall in the saving ratio at the end of the 1980s was a result not of a fall in gross savings so much as an increase in borrowing, particularly mortgage borrowing.

    In part, that reflected the remarkable increase in home ownership over the last decade. That has been, and remains, a key objective of policy for the Government. A less desirable development, however, was the dramatic boom in house prices during the late 1980s, which fuelled borrowing and helped boost inflation. Many first-time buyers found prices rising much faster than their incomes. We need to do all we can to ensure that, when recovery comes, it is not accompanied by another bout of house price inflation, with the unwelcome consequences that that would have for inflation and interest rates. I propose to leave the ceiling for mortgage interest relief unchanged at £30,000, but from 6 April 1991 I propose that relief should be allowed only at the basic rate. That will yield £220 million in 1991-92 on the basis of current interest rates, and £420 million in 1992-93.

    I recognise that some people have arranged their affairs on the assumption that higher rate relief will continue. Therefore, to reduce the amount of extra tax they have to pay, I propose to increase the starting point for higher rate tax from £20,700 to £23,700, £1,000 more than required to match inflation. That will keep the number of higher rate payers broadly stable and mean that a married man will not become liable to higher rate tax until his earnings rise to nearly £29,000.

    My objective is to reduce the tax subsidy to borrowing without significantly increasing the average tax burden on higher rate taxpayers. Taking those changes with the changes to the personal allowances that I am about to announce, the typical increase in liability for a higher rate taxpayer with a £30,000 mortgage will be only around £1 a week. Of course, the main determinant of the cost of a mortgage is not tax relief, but interest rates. For a higher rate taxpayer with a £50,000 mortgage, the fall in the typical mortgage rate that has already taken place since last autumn fully offsets the change that I am making to mortgage interest relief.

    INCOME TAXES

    I now come to income tax. Income tax is never welcome, but paying tax unexpectedly is even less so. That is the position facing employees who were working in Kuwait and Iraq at the time the Gulf crisis began. They may now become liable to pay United Kingdom tax on their foreign earnings which they had expected to be exempt. I propose that employees who had intended to work in Kuwait or Iraq for a year or more but were forced to return home earlier by the crisis should not be taxed on their foreign earnings.

    I have no changes to make to either the basic rate or the higher rate of income tax. Our objective remains to move towards a basic rate of 20p, but I cannot make further progress towards it this year. Our priority must be to reduce taxes on business.

    I propose this year to uprate the personal allowance in line with inflation. It will rise by £290 to £3,295. The personal allowance for the over-65s will increase by £350 to £4,020, and for those aged 75 and over by £360 to £4,180. The married couple’s allowances for the elderly will also be increased in line with inflation, from £2,145 and £2,185 to £2,355 and £2,395. The income limit for the allowances for the elderly will increase by £1,200 to £13,500.

    However, I am not proposing to increase the married couple’s allowance for couples under 65 or the allowances that are linked to it. They will stay at £1,720.

    I know that there is a widespread view in the House and in the country that more should be done to help families with children. I propose to use the resources released by not increasing the married couple’s allowance for that purpose.

    There are some, I know, who advocate the reintroduction of child tax allowances. I have looked at that option carefully, but I am clear – especially following the introduction of independent taxation – that it would not be an effective way of channelling resources to those who need them. A better way of directing help straight into the pockets of mothers, whether they choose to work or not, is child benefit. It goes to all families – to the children of non-taxpayers as well as the children of taxpayers.

    I therefore propose to increase child benefit from 7 October by £1 a week for the first eligible child in each family, and by 25p a week for other children. These rises come on top of the increase announced by my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Social Security last autumn, which will be paid from 8 April. This means that, in October this year, a benefit of £9.25 a week will be payable for the first child, and £7.50 for each subsequent child.

    We will ensure that the increases benefit not only taxpayers but the very poorest families – those on income support and family credit. These increases will help 6.8 million families, and 12.3 million children. I should add that the Government have decided that the new levels of child benefit will be uprated in line with inflation next April and in subsequent years.

    CENTRAL AND LOCAL TAXATION

    The measures that I have announced today maintain a responsible fiscal policy, while giving help to industry and families. They also include some important reforms to the tax system. However, my Budget would not be complete if it did not address one other issue, which has attracted a certain amount of attention recently.

    My right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for the Environment will be announcing very soon the conclusions of our review of local government. I do not propose to anticipate his statement, but there is one announcement I want to make today.

    In January, we announced a £1 billion package to reduce the community charge for more than half of all charge payers. Since then, I have been considering whether the impact of local expenditure on the local taxpayer is too great for any system of local taxation to bear.

    I have concluded that local taxes are being asked to bear too large a burden, and that the level of the community charge is still too high. However, if local taxes are to fall, and if the standard of local services is to be maintained, taxes elsewhere must rise. I propose, therefore, to make a substantial switch from local taxation to central taxation. This will amount to about £4 billion in the coming financial year – 1991-92 – and will reduce the net yield of local taxation to about £7 billion. This large reduction in local taxation will take it to a level that the Government believe should be sustainable in the longer term.

    We shall introduce a Bill in the next few days to authorise payments of extra grant to local authorities, and to ensure that community charge payers will reap the full benefit in reduced charges in the coming year – 1991-92. The money will not be available to increase local authority spending. Domestic rate bills in Northern Ireland will be reduced as well.

    The Bill will also ensure that charge payers do not have to start paying their charges until the new and lower charges have been introduced. Later today, my right hon. Friend the Lord President of the Council will make a statement about the arrangements for the Bill. The switch requires a substantial increase in central taxation. I have decided that this should be achieved by raising indirect taxes – that is to say, taxes on spending.

    I am proposing, therefore, from 1 April to increase the standard rate of value added tax by two and a half percentage points to 17 per cent. VAT is a broadly based tax which falls on consumers rather than producers. Since much consumer spending is zero-rated, it bears less heavily on poorer households than on the better-off, so raising VAT is not only an efficient but also a fair way to raise the necessary finance; and raising taxes on spending rather than taxes on income will be better for savings, and consistent with our strategy for tax reform, first set down by my right hon. and learned Friend the Member for Surrey, East (Sir G. Howe) in his 1979 Budget. Raising VAT will increase some prices, but the reduction in the community charge will more than offset that effect, so the switch will actually reduce the retail prices index. As a result of these changes, the community charges recently announced in England, Wales and Scotland will be cut by £140. On average, the headline charge will be reduced from about £390 to about £250 in both England and Scotland, and from about £260 to about £120 in Wales, while the amounts people actually have to pay, after allowing for relief and benefits, will fall to under £175 in Great Britain. The charge in Shetland will fall to under £1.

    PERORATION

    The measures I have announced are designed to meet the three main requirements of any Budget. First, they represent sound finance, and contribute to a firm counter-inflationary policy. My predecessors transformed public finances in the 1980s; my proposals will keep us on track to balance the budget over the 1990s. Secondly, they respond to the economic needs of the moment. I have cut taxes on business, both this year and next, to help it to weather the recession and take advantage of the upturn later in the year. Thirdly, they continue the reform of the tax system to improve the working of the economy in the longer term. In addition, in a year when resources are tight, I have been able to give additional help to families with children. Finally, I have made a decisive reduction in the burden of local taxation across the country, and cut community charges in the coming year by £140.

    This Budget is good for business, good for families, good for charge payers and good for the country. I commend it to the House.

  • PMQT – 7 February 1991

    Below is the text of Prime Minister’s Question Time from 7th February 1991.


    PRIME MINISTER

     

    Engagements

    Q1. Mr. Ashby : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 7 February.

    The Prime Minister (Mr. John Major) : This morning I presided at a meeting of the Cabinet and had meetings with ministerial colleagues and others. In addition to my duties in the House, I shall be having further meetings later today, including one with the president of the International Red Cross.

    Mr. Ashby : When my right hon. Friend meets the president of the International Red Cross this evening, will he tell him of the utter revulsion that the British people feel about the treatment of prisoners of war by Saddam Hussein? Will he urge the International Red Cross to redouble its efforts to obtain from the Iraqis details of the prisoners of war and about access to them? Will he ask the International Red Cross please to remind Saddam Hussein that the Iraqis cannot expect to benefit from the International Red Cross if, at the same time, Iraq refuses to honour its agreements under the Geneva convention?

    Mr. Major : I shall certainly be making those points, as my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Defence did yesterday. I shall also be making it clear that in no way can Iraq’s behaviour be equated with that of the allies in their treatment of prisoners of war. Iraq is in gross and flagrant violation of its obligations while the allies are doing everything possible to ensure that they meet their commitments under the Geneva convention.

    Mr. Kinnock : Today’s attack in Whitehall was both vicious and futile, since it will neither intimidate nor divert anyone, whether in government or opposition, in this democracy. May I express my relief at the fact that the attack caused so little harm to people, my admiration for the workers in Whitehall who continued with their duties, and my appreciation of the emergency services who responded with great speed and expertise? Today’s experience further increases our fellow feeling for the people of Northern Ireland who have lived with such atrocities for nearly two decades. May I put to the Prime Minister my firm view that outrages such as the one today increase the unity and determination that we all share to defend democracy and defeat terrorism, whatever its source.

    The Prime Minister : I am grateful to the right hon. Gentleman. I know that he shares my contempt for terrorism, which he has just expressed again most eloquently. It is clear from the timing of this morning’s attack that it was a deliberate attempt both to kill the Cabinet and to do damage to our democratic system of government. It failed. In no circumstances could it possibly have succeeded. Many people in this country, including most noticeably those many brave people in Northern Ireland, have been the victims of terrorist attacks on many occasions. None of those attacks succeeded in changing the policy of successive Governments, nor the policies or principles of this House in any single iota–nor will they. The IRA’s record is one of deep failure in every respect. That failure was demonstrated yet again today. It is about time the IRA learned that democracies cannot be intimidated by terrorism and we rightly treat it with contempt.

    Sir Bernard Braine : Does my right hon. and learned Friend agree that in the present exceptionally cold weather, which is forecast to increase in intensity, some of our fellow citizens, especially the elderly and the infirm, may suffer grievously? Is it possible for my right hon. Friend to consider ways and means of providing extra help for such people?

    The Prime Minister : My right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Social Security met my right hon. and learned Friend the Chief Secretary this morning to discuss the particular problems caused by the wholly exceptional weather. Severe weather payments have already been triggered in half the country and that may be extended. Our primary concern now is to ensure that vulnerable groups keep warm. Therefore, my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State will be announcing later today that the seven-day qualifying period will be waived in view of the exceptionally severe weather. Therefore, people should keep warm–secure in the knowledge that payment will be made to those eligible even if, as forecast, the cold weather lasts only a few days. Payment will also be made at the enhanced rate of £6 per week to reflect higher fuel charges.

    Mr. Ashdown : Will the Prime Minister pass on our best wishes to those who were injured in this morning’s outrage? Does he realise that the whole House and, I believe, the whole nation will back him in his determination to ensure that government continues as usual, despite this morning’s outrage? Does he agree that the operation of an open democracy necessarily carries with it some risks and that the proper response to terrorism is to do as he has done and make it clear that we will not be deflected in our policies or weakened in our determination to preserve the open and accessible character of our democracy?

    The Prime Minister : I believe that the right hon. Gentleman speaks for the whole House in what he has said. Our determination to beat terrorism cannot be defeated by terrorism. I hope that that is fully understood everywhere. I shall be happy to pass on the right hon. Gentleman’s best wishes to those who were injured and also his congratulations and those of the Leader of the Opposition to those many people from the emergency services who helped this morning.

    Rev. Ian Paisley : Will the right hon. Gentleman accept that the people of Northern Ireland fully support what the Leader of Her Majesty’s Opposition has said today? Will he also accept that they congratulate the Prime Minister and his colleagues on their escape today? Will he bear it in mind that those of us who represent Northern Ireland in the House often face difficulties when murders and atrocities take place in Northern Ireland and we cannot have the time of the House to bring them to hon. Members’ attention as has occurred today? Will the Prime Minister consult the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland and consider whether immediate action can be taken to ensure that the fair employment legislation is not used against workers supporting the war in the Gulf?

    The Prime Minister : The whole House recognises that, alas, Northern Ireland has had far too much experience of the sort of attack that we have seen today in London. The hon. Gentleman will know of the firm opposition of the Government and their predecessors to that sort of attack in Northern Ireland.

    Mr. Ernie Ross : Further to his reply to the hon. Member for Leicestershire, North-West (Mr. Ashby), when the Prime Minister meets the president of the International Red Cross, will he confirm that while we insist that Iraq accepts its responsibilities, we will also accept our responsibilities with regard to others who are suffering because of our allies’ failure to accept the International Red Cross and the Geneva convention? Will he tell the president that he will re-affirm that commitment to the Israeli Government in relation to their treatment of the Palestinians on the west bank and in Gaza?

    The Prime Minister : All allies in this conflict are following the Geneva convention to the letter. That is, has been and will continue to be the case.

     

    Q2. Mr. Cyril D. Townsend : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 7 February.

    The Prime Minister : I refer my hon. Friend to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Townsend : In view of my right hon. Friend’s great concern for the plight of Terry Waite and the other British hostages in Beirut, will he give serious consideration to sending a senior emissary to Tehran and Damascus–taking advantage of our restored diplomatic relations–and to Beirut to learn at first hand what more the British Government can do to obtain the hostages’ long-overdue release?

    The Prime Minister : We remain very concerned about the plight of Mr. Waite, Mr. McCarthy and Mr. Mann and about the effect on their families of their long imprisonment. We already have representatives in Teheran, Damascus and Beirut and they are devoting a great deal of effort to securing the release of our hostages. My right hon. Friend the Foreign Secretary met Syrian Foreign Minister Ash-Shara’ yesterday and made it clear yet again that Syria will do all that it can to secure their release.

     

    Q3. Mrs. Heal : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 7 February.

    The Prime Minister : I refer the hon. Lady to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mrs. Heal : I welcome the Prime Minister’s statement about the cold weather payments. As one who knows well the weaknesses of that system, why does he not use the power that he has to abandon the scheme altogether and look for a general uprating of pensions for all people all the time?

    The Prime Minister : In making that point, the hon. Lady wholly forgets the changes that have been made to the payments available. She has perhaps also overlooked the fact that severe weather payments did not exist at all when last there was a Labour Government.

    Mr. Stanbrook : In view of my right hon. Friend’s welcome words about the people of Northern Ireland, do not they now deserve a promise that they will never be removed from the protection of the British Crown?

    The Prime Minister : As my hon. Friend knows, they have that certainty without their express wish to be otherwise.

     

    Q4. Mr. Skinner : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 7 February.

    The Prime Minister : I refer the hon. Gentleman to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Skinner : Does the Prime Minister recall that on 8 November last year, when he was Chancellor of the Exchequer introducing his autumn statement, he said that for this financial year there would be a budget surplus of £3 billion? Is he aware that many Ministers are saying that that £3 billion surplus has disappeared? If such a gross miscalculation had been made by a Labour local authority, it would have been subjected to poll tax capping and surcharge. What does the Prime Minister intend to do – sack his Chancellor?

    The Prime Minister : As to the fiscal position, that will be announced by my right hon. Friend the Chancellor in the Budget. As to the accuracy of forecasts, far be it from me to recall unhappy memories for the hon. Gentleman, but there were occasions when the right hon. Member for Leeds, East (Mr. Healey) was out by several hundred per cent. in his fiscal forecasts.

    Miss Emma Nicholson : Will the Prime Minister congratulate those of our allies such as Turkey, and other nations that have fundamentalist Muslim insurrectionists and great difficulty maintaining political stability, on the brave moves that they have made in furthering the allied cause in the Gulf?

    The Prime Minister : I am entirely happy to do that. My hon. Friend expresses the point most eloquently.

     

    Q5. Mr. Tony Banks : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 7 February.

    The Prime Minister : I refer the hon. Gentleman to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Banks : May I share with the Prime Minister a problem that I have?

    Hon. Members : “No.”

    Mr. Speaker : Order. Provided that it is a question.

    Mr. Banks : It is not that sort of problem, anyway. A small gent came into my constituency office on Monday and said, “Why is it that in Britain we have the highest inflation rate, the highest interest rates and the highest balance of payments deficit in the European Economic Community?” He asked whether these were the problems of success or an indication that the economy was in deep doo-doo. I said that I had not the faintest idea, but that the next time I saw the Prime Minister I would ask him. So what is it – economic success or deep doo-doo?

    The Prime Minister : It is clear that the hon. Gentleman has not the faintest idea, for his facts are wrong.

     

    Q6. Mr. Ian Taylor : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 7 February.

    The Prime Minister : I refer my hon. Friend to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Taylor : Following the previous point, does my right hon. Friend agree that the stability of sterling against the deutschmark, despite the recent rise in German interest rates, shows increasing confidence in the Government’s determination to bring down inflation within the exchange rate discipline? Is not that the best framework for a lasting and sustained reduction in interest rates, with the removal of the premium required for holders of sterling in terms of interest rates against other currencies? Is not that better for British industry than the cut-and-run tactics practised by the Opposition?

    The Prime Minister : The stability certainly reflects, to some extent, our membership of the exchange rate mechanism, which is in no sense a straitjacket. If the pound were falling, we should not be able to cut interest rates whether we were in or out of the exchange rate mechanism. In due course, the stability that the mechanism provides will help and not hinder. The opportunity will come as our inflation rate falls.

     

    Q7. Mr. Malcolm Bruce : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 7 February.

    The Prime Minister : I refer the hon. Gentleman to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Bruce : The husband of a constituent of mine unfortunately died in the Gulf a few months ago. As a result, my constituent and her daughter lost their home in Germany and require to be rehoused by the local council, which has not been able to rehouse them. If that is an indication of the way in which the Army treats widows, will local authorities be able to cope in those circumstances?

    The Prime Minister : As the hon. Gentleman knows, the Army will always look at these matters sympathetically. If the hon. Gentleman will provide me with the details of the case, of which I had no prior knowledge, I shall be happy to examine it for him.

  • Mr Major’s Commons Autumn Statement Speech – 8 November 1990

    The text of Mr Major’s 1990 Autumn Statement Speech to the House of Commons on 8th November 1990.


    CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER:

    The Chancellor of the Exchequer (Mr. John Major) With permission, Mr. Speaker, I should like to make a statement.

    The Cabinet agreed the Government’s expenditure plans this morning. I am, therefore, now able to inform the House of the public expenditure outturn for this year; the plans for the next three years; our proposals for national insurance contributions in 1991–92; and the forecast of economic prospects for 1991 required by the Industry Act 1975.

    As usual, the main public expenditure figures, together with the full text of the economic forecast, will be available from the Vote Office as soon as I sit down. The printed “Autumn Statement” will be published next Tuesday.

    In this survey we have had to take some tough decisions in the interests of the economy and the new plans represent a very tight settlement. But it is a settlement which is fully consistent with the Government’s commitments and channels extra resources to the areas where the need is greatest. For this, and other reasons, I should like to pay tribute to my right hon. Friend the Chief Secretary for the skill and persistence with which he has brought the survey to a successful conclusion.

    Since 1984–85, while the economy has grown by nearly 20 per cent., total public spending has risen scarcely at all in real terms. As a result, the ratio of public expenditure to national income has fallen by more than seven percentage points, the largest sustained fall for 40 years. Moreover, in the past three years large budget surpluses have enabled us to repay debt totalling £26 billion.

    Mr. Dennis Skinner (Bolsover) Not any more.

    Mr. Major We shall add to that this year.

    The main objective of economic policy at present must be to bring inflation down, but, as we do so, the short-term prospect is bound to be one of weak activity. [Interruption.] In the past, during similar periods the ratio of public spending to national income has risen strongly. On this occasion it will not.

    Planned public expenditure in the current fiscal year is now expected to be £180.6 billion, rather less than 1 per cent. above the planning total set a year ago. A large part of this extra spending is due to an increase in the financing requirements of the nationalised industries, to a surge of common agricultural policy spending on agricultural market support and to expenditure on the Gulf crisis.

    Notwithstanding this cash overrun, public expenditure remains under tight control. Inflation has been higher than forecast, but it has not been allowed to feed through fully into expenditure. As a result, the ratio of spending to national income in the current year is likely to be slightly lower than projected at the time of the Budget – virtually unchanged from the 1989–90 level.

    The decisions on public expenditure for the next three years have been taken against a more difficult world and domestic economic background than for some time. Activity at home and abroad has begun to weaken and some countries such as Canada and the United States are expected to grow very slowly indeed over the coming year. The outlook has also been complicated by events in the Gulf, with the rise in oil prices and the uncertainty that they have produced. Against that background, our new plans are designed to protect the most vulnerable groups in society against the effects of higher inflation [Interruption.] I repeat, to protect the most vulnerable groups in society and to maintain longer-term policies to improve the working of the economy.

    Mr. Robert N. Wareing (Liverpool, West Derby) rose–

    Mr. Major I shall of course give way to the hon. Gentleman when we come to questions a little later.

    But, beyond that, this is not the year for making substantial additions to plans in other areas. The priority must be to honour existing commitments, within a total for public spending that is affordable and fiscally prudent. For 1991–92, the new planning total has been set at £200 billion, a little under £8 billion more than the previously published figure. The planning totals in the following two years are £215 billion and £226 billion respectively.

    In recognition of the economic uncertainties and the risks arising from the Gulf crisis, these totals include higher reserves than last year’s plans: £3½ billion in the first year; £7 billion in the second year; and £10½ billion in the third. I believe that these increases are prudent. Our plans also incorporate an estimate of privatisation proceeds at £5½ billion a year that is in line with the average outturn in recent years.

    After taking account of inflation, the level of spending next year will be rather less than implied by last year’s plans: that is, the cash additions to the planning total do not fully compensate for the higher level of prices now expected for 1991–92. This restraint is necessary, but it means that many of my colleagues have had to drop or postpone proposals that they would otherwise have regarded as desirable.

    Nevertheless, within this total there are substantial extra resources in three main areas: health, social security and central Government support for local authority services. These additions to plans total some £7½ billion in 1991–92. It has also been possible to make improvements to other key areas including education, public transport, and the environment.

    We have also been able to make savings elsewhere, including defence. I can assure the House categorically that financial constraints will not hinder in any way the United Kingdom’s military contribution to resolving the Gulf crisis. However, the “Options for Change” announced by my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Defence on 25 July will produce increasing savings in the defence budget. Over the next three years the new plans provide for a real reduction in defence spending of about 6 per cent., and further reductions should be achieved in later years as my right hon. Friend’s proposals are fully implemented. For the first time in the period since World War 2, we are now able safely to plan on a defence budget that is significantly less than one tenth of all Government expenditure and falling.

    In certain other areas, we have been able to accommodate increases in expenditure by finding offsetting savings. For example, on the trade and industry and employment programmes we have made selective increases while keeping broadly to existing plans overall, and within the Home Office programme, lower prison population forecasts have enabled us to reduce the prison building programme, while considerable resources have been made available for the refurbishment of existing prisons, including Strangeways.

    In July, the Government announced extra support for local authority current spending which will add around £2½ billion to previous plans. Current spending by local authorities has substantially outstripped central Government spending over recent years. This year local authorities in England budgeted for increases of over 5 per cent. in real terms before capping. This has led to community charges which in many authorities are far higher than expected or justified.

    The additional support that we are providing for next year should enable local authorities to finance local services without sharp increases in their charges. My right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for the Environment has already announced that, if required, the Government will make vigorous use of their powers to cap high-spending authorities. I re-emphasise that.

    Nearly £3 billion has been added to the social security plans for next year. This mainly reflects the upratings already announced by my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Social Security which maintain in full the real value of benefits paid to 10 million pensioners and 11 million people on income-related benefits. The additions also reflect the substantial extra cost of community charge benefit which will help about one in four charge payers. My right hon. Friend was also able to announce selective increases for poorer pensioners, people in residential and nursing homes and families. These improvements will be financed within the social security programme by savings from restructuring the statutory sick pay scheme, as announced by my right hon. Friend on 24 October.

    As in previous years, the Government have also made very substantial extra provision for health. Between this year and next, spending on the national health service in the United Kingdom will rise by £3 billion, so that the real resources over and above inflation that are available for spending on health will increase by a further 5 per cent. The total real increase in health service spending since 1979 will now be nearly 50 per cent. This has enabled the NHS to employ some 8,000 more hospital doctors and dentists, and over 50,000 more nurses and, of course, to provide for more sophisticated health care than ever before. As a result, more than 1½ million more in-patient and day cases are now treated every year. In the largest sustained programme of hospital building ever seen, nearly 500 major capital schemes have been completed since 1979. The plans that I am announcing ensure that the next three years will see further improvements in services.

    Extra finance is also being provided for public transport. London Transport and British Rail have large long-term investment programmes which will enable them to extend and to upgrade the London underground and to prepare for the opening of the channel tunnel. Between them, they will spend some £¾ billion on safety alone in the next three years. The new plans also consolidate the substantial extra provision for roads that was announced last year and include measures to relieve congestion in London. Investment in public transport in the next three years will be double the level of the past three years.

    Central Government spending on education will be increased by more than £500 million next year, largely to finance the record number of students in higher education. One in five of the 18 to 19 age group will be in higher education, compared with one in eight only a decade ago. The number of higher education qualifications gained, as a proportion of the relevant age group, is higher in the United Kingdom than in Germany, France, Italy and almost every other European country.

    Following the publication of the White Paper on the environment, the new plans provide significant extra resources for environmental research and in support of environmental bodies such as the National Rivers Authority and the Countryside Commission. There is extra provision also for the Government’s programme of action on rooflessness.

    Throughout the past decade, we have sustained a high level of capital spending in the public sector. In total, it will approach £30 billion in the current year. Leaving aside defence, our new plans include an extra £1½ billion a year for investment by central Government and nationalised industries. There is also extra support for local authorities’ capital spending on schools, housing and local transport.

    Taking capital and current together, real growth in total public spending over the three survey years will be less than 2 per cent. a year – well within the trend growth of the economy. As I have said, this is a tight settlement and it means that the ratio of public spending to national income should remain stable at its present level for the next two years. Thereafter, as activity strengthens and inflation remains in check, the downward trend will be resumed.

    I now turn to national insurance contributions. As usual, the review this autumn has taken account of advice from the Government Actuary on the income and expenditure of the national insurance fund, and of the statement on benefits that was made by my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Social Security on 24 October.

    The lower earnings limit at which contributions begin will go up next April to £52 a week, in line with the single person’s basic pension, while the upper earnings limit will rise to £390 a week. The upper limits for the reduced employers’ rates will also be increased.

    In addition to those changes, there will be reductions in the contribution rates paid by employers. As my right hon. Friend explained in the House on 24 October, the restructuring of statutory sick pay will add modestly to employers’ costs from next April. It is right that the Exchequer should share these costs. Therefore, the main employers’ contribution rate will fall next April from 10.45 per cent. to 10.4 per cent. and each of the lower rates will be cut by 0.4 per cent. This relief through contributions will limit the impact of the statutory sick pay adjustments on employers of lower-paid workers in particular. The necessary legislation will be laid before the House. The contribution rates paid by employees and the class 4 rates paid by the self-employed will remain unchanged.

    I am publishing today the economic forecast required by the Industry Act 1975, the first since we became members of the exchange rate mechanism. I must emphasise at the outset that the Gulf crisis and its effect on world oil markets make the future unusually difficult to predict. The United Kingdom, along with other countries, has already seen some of the adverse impact on consumer price inflation. The oil price rise is likely also to contribute to the general slowdown in the world economy that was already under way before the Gulf crisis.

    For the Industry Act forecast I am following the practice of international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and assuming some fall in oil prices from recent levels to around $25 a barrel by the end of 1991. But I must reiterate that the situation in the oil market remains very volatile.

    Despite these uncertainties, however, it is now clear that the tight United Kingdom policy stance of the past two years is bringing about an easing of domestic inflationary pressures. This will make possible both a sharp fall in retail prices index inflation next year and a strengthening of output.

    So far this year, the public sector debt repayment has been running below both last year’s outturn and our expectations at Budget time. Local authority borrowing was particularly high earlier this year as some authorities experienced delays in collecting non-domestic rates and the community charge. Public corporations’ finances have been adversely affected by the slowdown in economic activity and central Government spending has also been higher. Nevertheless, despite this, I still expect a significant debt repayment in the year as a whole of £3 billion. This amounts to ½ per cent. of GDP and represents a strong fiscal stance at this stage of the economic cycle.

    Mr. Skinner What was the right hon. Gentleman’s forecast?

    Mr. Major For the benefit of the hon. Member for Bolsover (Mr. Skinner), we have a stronger fiscal position than Germany, France, the United States and every other member of the Group of Seven, with the solitary exception of Japan.

    Thus our public finances remain strong. Given our membership of the exchange rate mechanism and the counter-inflationary strategy that we are pursuing, it is essential that they remain strong. As I made clear to the House last month, the Government remain committed to the medium-term objective of a balanced budget. That is why we have continued our firm restraint of public expenditure in the current year.

    Turning to demand and output, it is clear that growth has now slowed down sharply. GDP is forecast to grow by 1 per cent. this year. This figure is the same as the forecast I made at the time of the Budget, but the path has been slightly different, and I expect output in the second half of the year to be down on the higher than expected and projected level in the first half.

    This period of weak activity should last until early next year, after which I expect growth to resume; GDP is expected to grow by over 2 per cent. in 1991, though year-on-year growth is forecast to be only ½ per cent.

    Unemployment has been rising since the spring and may continue to rise in the months immediately ahead, but job prospects will improve with a resumption of growth, the more so if employers keep tight control of costs, including pay rises.

    Within domestic demand, growth of consumer spending has now slowed markedly from over 7 per cent. two years ago to under 3 per cent. in the first half of this year. The signs are that it will fall further over the year ahead as consumers continue to adjust to lower growth of real incomes, following the high borrowing of recent years.

    Business investment rose by an unprecedented 45 per cent. in the three years to 1989, taking investment to an historically high level as a share of GDP. It may have fallen slightly in 1990 and is expected to fall a little further next year. A modest downturn from such a high level is unsurprising; indeed, it would be extraordinary if it did not occur at this stage in the cycle. It will still leave investment over 50 per cent. higher in real terms than in 1979.

    The current account has now begun to improve markedly. With low growth of domestic demand, import volumes have shown virtually no growth over the past year and import prices have been falling in recent months as a result of the firm exchange rate. Export growth, on the other hand, has remained strong over the past year so that the United Kingdom’s share of world trade in manufactures has risen for the second year running. The deficit on visible trade has followed a welcome trend and has virtually halved since the middle of 1989. This progress has been partly offset by poor figures for invisibles in recent quarters, although in the past these have, more often than not, been revised up later – at times, substantially.

    I now expect that the current account deficit in 1990 will remain close to the forecast I made at the time of the Budget – at just over £15 billion. With domestic demand and import growth likely to stay low, I expect a considerably improved performance next year, with the deficit falling to £11 billion despite some slowdown in export growth as world trade decelerates. As a proportion of gross domestic product the deficit is expected to fall from 3¾ per cent. last year to 1¾ per cent. in 1991 – a sharp improvement.

    I am now certain that inflationary pressures have been brought firmly under control. The monetary indicators show this clearly. The growth of MO has fallen every month since April and is now considerably within its target range, while growth of the wider measure, M4, and lending have fallen sharply to 14½ per cent. and 15½ per cent. respectively. With demand and output slowing markedly over the past two years, it is clear that inflation will come down next year. The fall in the headline figure will be very sharp as the effects of the past mortgage rate rises, of the high initial level of the community charge and of recent petrol price increases cease to influence the inflation rate by the end of next year. From a peak at the current level of about 11 per cent., I expect RPI inflation to fall to around 5½ per cent. in the fourth quarter of next year.

    In summary, the plans that I have announced today honour our existing commitments and provide additional resources for key areas – notably for the health service, for pensioners and for investment. They are within an overall total we can afford and they avoid the sharp upturn in the share of expenditure in national output which has occurred at similar stages in previous economic cycles. They are, therefore, consistent with the tight fiscal and monetary policies that will lead to a falling trade deficit and to a sharp reduction in inflation. They are, in my judgment, the right policies for building on the economic achievements of the past decade and I commend them to the House.

    Mr. John Smith (Monklands, East) Can the Chancellor of the Exchequer explain why, in his analysis of our economic situation, he was unable to utter the word “recession”? Is not it clear from the surveys compiled by the Confederation of British Industry and by the chambers of commerce, let alone from the experience of commerce and industry from one end of the country to another, that we are the midst of a recession and that the outlook for an economy with falling output, with declining investment and with rising unemployment is far from encouraging?

    From table 11 in the “Economic Prospects for 1991” section of the autumn statement, is not it clear that output is predicted to fall significantly in the second half of 1990 and in the first half of 1991 – that is, for a whole year or for four quarters? By any definition, is not that a recession? Why is that information hidden in a table at the back of the published document? Why does not the Chancellor come to the Dispatch Box and admit that, as his figures prove, we are in a recession and that the recession has been caused by the Government’s economic policies? Is not it the case that the only way in which he can justify the phrase in his statement about “strengthening of output” is by a leap of faith that output will suddenly increase in the second half of 1991?

    Is not it clear from the Chancellor’s document that, having predicted in his Budget – not all that long ago – that manufacturing output would increase by ¾ per cent. in the first half of next year, he now predicts that it will fall by ½ per cent. for the whole of that year? In the Budget, investment was forecast to decline by ¾ per cent. in the first half of next year; now it is forecast to be falling by 1 per cent. for the whole of 1991. In the Budget, exports were predicted to increase by 5½ per cent.; now they are forecast to rise by just 2½ per cent.

    As we are clearly experiencing a recession, why do the Government continue to cause reductions in the investment expenditure of the Department of Trade and Industry? Why is it cut by £250 million in cash terms, and by even more in real terms? As we prepare for 1992, should not we be increasing investment in the regions, in training, in export promotion and in research and development?

    Can the Chancellor tell us whether he has reversed the cuts in the training budget that he announced last year? The Department of Employment appears to have sustained a cut of £370 million; I understand that some of that is accounted for by £254 million going to Scottish Enterprise, which will take over responsibility for some of these functions in Scotland. I must tell the Chancellor that, with considerable difficulty, I was able just a few minutes ago to extract from the Department of Employment its press release explaining its figures. It said: Employment training, which is already running substantially below capacity this year, will be reduced in scale and reshaped to give TECs more discretion in matching the needs of their local labour markets … Payments to TECs will be more closely focused on their success in securing jobs and qualifications for participants. We have learnt from the past that – as far as the Government are concerned – closer focusing equals reduction. While we are in the midst of our present economic difficulties, why on earth are we cutting spending on training? Will the Chancellor tell us what the cut is and will he tell us why?

    The Government will also seek to take credit for the instances in which there are planned increases in the totals for public expenditure. Will the Chancellor reflect on the experience of last year? The figures provided today show that a planned expenditure total of £179 billion turned out to be £180 billion. However, the GDP deflator – which was estimated last year at 5 per cent. – turned out to be 8 per cent. because of inflation.

    Is not it clear that the promised increase in public spending announced this time last year did not materialise? The public know that. That is why they know that the services on which they depend have not improved – that teacher shortages are increasing, and hospital waiting lists are at record levels. Do not the Government’s own figures about the effects of inflation on the projected increases for the year to come show that those figures corroborate the experience of all our constituents in relation to public services? Does the Chancellor think that it was a bit much to talk in his autumn statement about protecting the “vulnerable groups in society”, given the Government’s position on child benefit, which was announced only a few weeks ago?

    Will the Chancellor explain the cuts in the Department of the Environment budget? There appear to be cuts in the total, although the text that he read out mentions increases. Will he say whether less will be spent next year than is currently being spent on water, environment and the countryside? Will the Chancellor tell us who invented the word “rooflessness”? Is it meant to be a synonym for being homeless? Was the word introduced because Ministers and the Chancellor cannot bring themselves to talk about the state of homelessness that they have caused for so many people in this country?

    The Chancellor made some predictions. Has he reflected on the record of the Treasury at making successful economic predictions? I assume that he has read the Treasury bulletin issued recently which confirms that in 1988 the Treasury was wrong by 288 per cent. about the balance of payments; in 1989, it was 30 per cent. wrong about the balance of payments; and in 1990, 20 per cent. wrong – [HON. MEMBERS: “Getting better.”] Getting better, certainly, but there is still a long way to go. Conservative Members clutch at any crumb of comfort, but if they find these figures comfortable they need to think again.

    On inflation, the prediction in 1988 turned out to be 62 per cent. wrong; in 1989, it turned out to be 38 per cent. wrong; and in 1990, it turned out to be 40 per cent. wrong. All the same, inflation kept peaking and blipping along while these errors were being made.

    Does the Chancellor recall coming to the House last year with his autumn statement and saying that inflation now would be 5.25 per cent? And what is it? It is 11 per cent. The Government keep making predictions that lack credibility. Does the right hon. Gentleman understand that this is the fifth occasion on which the Government have predicted a fall in inflation? Why should we believe this one any more than the others? And since the right hon. Gentleman is predicting a fall in the headline rate, will he tell us what will happen to the underlying rate? What will be the underlying rate in the fourth quarter of next year?

    We have received uncertain predictions from the Government and they have usually turned out to be incorrect. We have received poor policies and poor purposes. The most disturbing aspect of the autumn statement was the Chancellor’s statement that there will be no change in economic policies. It was those economic policies which got us where we are now and they will make matters worse until they are changed.

    Mr. Major I hope that the right hon. and learned Gentleman will forgive me for saying at the outset that that was an odd response from the shadow Chancellor, who keeps telling the markets that he would spend money only on child benefit and pensions. He produced a litany of areas on which the Labour party clearly thinks that it would be wise to spend a lot more money. [Interruption.] The right hon. and learned Gentleman is clearly sensitive about the deep split between himself and the shadow Chief Secretary on these matters.

    Let me deal first with the questions that the right hon. and learned Gentleman asked. He made a point about recession. He used the word in the way most calculated to alarm – [HON. MEMBERS: “Answer the questions.”] I will come to the specific points in a moment. The right hon. and learned Gentleman’s use of the word recession conjured up an image quite different from the reality of what is happening or is expected to happen in future.

    It is perfectly true that output will decline for a brief period during the second half of this year –

    Mr. John Smith And the first half of next year.

    Mr. Major – and during the first quarter of next year, but if the right hon. and learned Gentleman will listen for a moment he will hear, first, that it declines from a very high level. We shall be back into growth next year at an accelerating rate. Inflation will fall, savings will increase, the trade gap will close and investment will be 50 per cent. higher than in 1979. We shall still have more people in employment than any other European nation. It is clear from what is happening and from what I have been able to forecast today that the British economy is coming back on track – that is what the right hon. and learned Gentleman does not like – [Interruption.] The Leader of the Opposition is occasionally wont to express the view from the Dispatch Box that he is glad that television is here. I hope that it is here at the moment to witness the way in which right hon. Members on the Opposition Front Bench are behaving.

    In terms of investment, the past three years have seen both a record rise in total investment and in business investment and I quoted the figures a few moments ago on the difference in 1979. The fall next year will be modest and from a very high level.

    There is certainly a redirection within the employment programme which is broadly unchanged in cash terms. The Government will be spending more than £2½ billion on training enterprise and vocational education. The savings on employment training have been made following a reappraisal of what employment training is delivering and there will be improved job clubs and other facilities as an alternative, and a considerable degree of extra resources and extra choice for training and enterprise councils in future.

    The right hon. and learned Gentleman referred to child benefit and the vulnerable. He knows as well as anyone in the House that on each occasion that child benefit was not increased, extra resources were put into child scale rates and income support to more than make up the difference. There is an increase in the environment budget of about £180 million in 1991–92 for the White Paper policies despite the fact that this is a very tight year for the survey. It is perfectly clear that although at the moment we find ourselves in the most difficult part of the economic cycle, we can now see our way through it and out of it during the course of next year.

    Several Hon. Members rose–

    Mr. Speaker Order. The House knows that this matter may be discussed in our debate on the Loyal Address specifically tomorrow and again next week. Hon. Members should ask single questions, please.

    Sir William Clark (Croydon, South) Does my right hon. Friend agree that this is a very tight public expenditure settlement and that both he and my right hon. Friend the Chief Secretary to the Treasury are to be congratulated? Although the pundits in the media and the press have been saying that there will be an overshoot of £12 billion on public expenditure, if we ignore the reserves there is an overshoot of only £4.5 billion. Despite our difficulties, more and more money is being spent on capital projects, unlike what happened under the last Labour Government who reduced public expenditure on the national health service and roads. Is not it about time that the Opposition stopped talking down Britain and our economy?

    Mr. Major In his latter remarks, my right hon. Friend asked for more than is likely to be delivered. It is perfectly true that to many commentators this will be a surprisingly tight package. It keeps public spending at £200 billion when many expected larger increases. The share of expenditure in national income remains unchanged when I think that many expected at this stage of the cycle that it might increase. As I said earlier, we still expect a substantial debt repayment in the present fiscal year. It is a tight settlement and it was necessary to be a tight settlement. We will continue to keep tight control of public expenditure.

    Mr. A. J. Beith (Berwick-upon-Tweed) Is not it clear that when we strip away the skilful and ingenious presentation, this statement amounts to cuts in many areas and inadequate investment in the key areas of transport, training and education because the Government must fund the massive inflation that they have caused and also because the Chancellor still has to leave room for the kind of income tax cuts that the Prime Minister keeps talking about without abandoning all semblance of fiscal respectability? Will the Chancellor confirm that the underlying rate of inflation will remain high throughout next year? Will he confirm that inflation minus mortgage interest rates will be high throughout next year? Is not that a serious problem and what is the Chancellor going to do about it?

    Mr. Major I expect underlying inflation also to fall next year – [HON. MEMBERS: “How far?”] To broadly the level of the headline rate.

    With regard to the programmes to which the hon. Gentleman referred, I have already said that something in excess of £½ billion is being added to the education budget largely to finance the very dramatic increase in the number of students in higher education. The plans imply at least as much capital spending in schools and colleges next year as in the current year.

    As there have been huge increases on transport in each of the last two surveys, the priority on transport this year is the extra almost £600 million mainly for the Jubilee line extension, the east-west crossrail and services for the channel tunnel. It is a very good settlement for public transport, for we are determined to produce an efficient and effective public transport service.

    Mr. Terence L. Higgins (Worthing) Although it is very important for the long-term trend of public expenditure to decline as a percentage of national income, does my right hon. Friend agree that the primary role of the rate of interest must now be to keep sterling within the limits of the exchange rate mechanism and that, as a result, fiscal policy has become more important than ever? Against the present economic background, are not the increases in planned public expenditure which my right hon. Friend has announced entirely appropriate if we are to avoid the dangers of recession? In that context, is not the increase in transport expenditure which my right hon. Friend has just announced particularly appropriate?

    Mr. Major I see my right hon. Friend’s point. He is, of course, entirely right about the necessity of remaining within the bands in the exchange rate mechanism to which we are committed, and equally entirely right that we will need to keep a very firm control of the trend rate of public expenditure in future years.

    Mr. Robert Sheldon (Ashton-under-Lyne) May I press the Chancellor further on the underlying rate of inflation? When the underlying rate was less than the RPI, the Government made a great deal of it. Now that it is likely to be more than the RPI, may we have his forecast of the underlying rate of inflation, excluding mortgage interest, at the end of next year, the fourth quarter?

    Mr. Major As the right hon. Gentleman knows – he is a very distinguished former Treasury Minister – the underlying rate of inflation has never been published, for perfectly understandable reasons.

    Mr. Charles Wardle (Bexhill and Battle) What happened to my right hon. Friend’s forecast last year for the surplus on invisibles and to his belief that negative growth in GDP would be avoided this year? If his forecasts this year go even slightly astray, just how disinflationary will £200 billion of spending be? Are not there lessons to be learnt from 1973–74?

    Mr. Major We do have a surplus on invisibles this year, and I would expect there to be a surplus on invisibles next year. The underlying premise of my hon. Friend’s question is perhaps inaccurate.

    Mr. Giles Radice (Durham, North) Does the Chancellor of the Exchequer agree that, as the planned spending total to a large extent reflects the Government’s failure to control inflation and the mess over the poll tax, there will be little room for improvements in vital public services? Will not the increase in the public spending total actually disturb the markets? In other words, are not we in danger of getting the worst of all worlds – disturbing the markets without satisfying the public?

    Mr. Major Of course, if the markets listen to the hon. Gentleman that would undoubtedly be the case. I suspect that the markets will notice that we have kept very tight control of expenditure in the circumstances that prevail, and I think that the markets will welcome the fact that we have been able to do so. It is clearly important that we do.

    Mr. Ian Stewart (Hertfordshire, North) Now that my right hon. Friend has announced the first part of his budgetary package on public expenditure and has shown very welcome restraint on the public expenditure totals, when the time comes will he be equally austere in presenting his Budget in the spring, because a tight fiscal policy is the best foundation for restoring economic growth?

    Mr. Major I am grateful to my right hon. Friend for his early budgetary representation which I will consider with great care.

    Mr. William Ross (Londonderry, East) As the 1992 planning forecast has now increased by 4 per cent. and it is intended to increase that total by 7.5 per cent. the following year and by 5 per cent. the year after, does the Chancellor expect those increased sums to be met from the Revenue or will he dip once more into the public borrowing requirement?

    Mr. Major No, I am not at this stage anticipating a public borrowing requirement. As I indicated in my statement, our medium-term policy is to remain at nothing worse than balance in terms of public borrowing. I hope that we will keep to that fiscal balance. We have a surplus this year, against the expectations of many commentators.

    Mr. Tim Smith (Beaconsfield) Is my right hon. Friend aware that his statement today on public expenditure is most welcome because he has succeeded in containing the increase in spending below that necessary to accommodate inflation while at the same time providing substantial additional resources for priority programmes? Does not the substantial increase in cash spending next year show that urgent need to continue to press down on inflation? Will my right hon. Friend continue to take a tough stance on monetary and fiscal policy?

    Mr. Major I entirely agree with everything that my hon. Friend has said and see no reason to add to it. I could not have expressed it as well myself.

    Mr. Ted Leadbitter (Hartlepool) The Chancellor’s statement suggested that he is still aware of the volatility of oil prices. However, is he aware that today there has been a reported 70 per cent. increase to £1.1 billion in the profits of the Shell oil company? It is therefore reasonable to deduce that there will be comparable increases for other oil companies. Does the right hon. Gentleman accept that the volatility of oil prices is beneficial for the oil companies, but that higher prices for oil buyers, such as motorists and industry, are disadvantageous? Does he agree that a lower profit margin and a more reasonable price would remove one element that has a serious impact on inflation, which so concerns the House at the moment?

    Mr. Major As the hon. Gentleman knows, that point has been examined by the Monopolies and Mergers Commission. The hon. Gentleman is right that the volatility of oil prices represents a damaging uncertainty for the projections that we and other countries must make. It is for that reason that I have taken the assumption, similar to that taken in many other forecasts, of an oil price that will be down to $25 by the end of 1991.

    Mr. Anthony Nelson (Chichester) Is my right hon. Friend aware that Conservative Members fully support the content as well as the style and tone of his statement? Will he also accept our congratulations to the Chief Secretary to the Treasury on showing clear political judgment in giving a priority to increased health spending? However, does he agree that if we are to increase expenditure on such areas – as we must – at a time when our constituents are having to tighten their belts, it would be quite improper to face them with an increased burden of taxation next year?

    Mr. Major I am grateful to my hon. Friend for his kind remarks to both myself and my right hon. Friend the Chief Secretary. As he knows, I believe that my right hon. Friend has produced a remarkably successful outturn to the public expenditure round. I believe that it is important to sustain expenditure on health and, on this occasion, we have managed to increase it in real terms by 5 per cent. again. I note my hon. Friend’s point about taxation, but, as he knows, I must consider that only in the period between now and the Budget.

    Mr. John Fraser (Norwood) With “rooflessness”, as the right hon. Gentleman calls it, going through the roof, how many extra homes for rent will be provided by the public sector as a result of this statement?

    Mr. Major My right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for the Environment will be making that clear in his own statement.

    Mr. Nicholas Budgen (Wolverhampton, South-West) Since my right hon. Friend is promising very substantial increases in public expenditure, will he confirm that there will be room for either substantial cuts in interest rates when it is safe to do that, or for cuts in taxation, but not for both?

    Mr. Major My hon. Friend is well aware that I cannot comment on the prospects of taxation, and I have no intention of doing so. I will not cut interest rates until I am absolutely satisfied that it is safe and secure to do so.

    Mr. Alex Salmond (Banff and Buchan) Am I correct in thinking that the Chancellor has assumed £2,700 million in oil revenues for the current year, bringing to a round £90,000 million the total by which Scottish oil revenues have bankrolled the Government in the past 10 years? What has happened to the additional North sea revenues as a result of the higher oil prices which, according to the brokers’ forecasts, are running at £20 million per day? How much of that has gone to the oil companies and how much to the Chancellor? I am sure that the right hon. Gentleman will appreciate the anxiety of people in Scotland to find out the answer to that question today, given the announcement of further steel closures and the further abandonment of North sea steel markets to the Japanese and the Germans.

    Mr. Major The hon. Gentleman did not, of course, put the reverse point to me some time ago when oil revenues fell dramatically after accidents in the North sea. He should look at both sides of the equation. Oil revenues are important to the Exchequer, but they represent a relatively small element of income.

    Mr. Anthony Beaumont-Dark (Birmingham, Selly Oak) Does my right hon. Friend accept that many of us have been disturbed at what we have read in the papers, which we always believe, that the Government are dismantling the health service? How is it, then, that we are told that we will spend £3.2 billion more this year? If that is dismantling the health service, what would we have to spend if we were trying to improve it?

    Mr. Major I am grateful to my hon. Friend for his most helpful observation. It is certainly the case that, on any measure, expenditure on the health service has risen dramatically over recent years to accommodate not only an improving service, freely available operations which previously were not available, and more doctors, nurses and dentists but a general improvement, as well as the largest capital building programme for hospitals that we have ever known.

    Ms. Diane Abbott (Hackney, North and Stoke Newington) Does the Chancellor accept that the figures that he announced on the extra money that he is lavishing on the health service do not mean much except in the context of the outturn figure of inflation and the relative price effect? As the Chancellor will know, the health service as a whole has a higher rate of inflation than the rest of the economy. That point was made by the Treasury and Civil Service Select Committee in its report on last year’s autumn statement.

    Mr. Major The relative price effect in health may conceivably – statisticians disagree – add about I per cent. over the normal GDP deflator. On that basis there is still a large real increase in health spending yet again next year.

    Mrs. Elizabeth Peacock (Batley and Spen) I heard my right hon. Friend say that investment is slowing down, but is he aware of investment that has recently taken place, is now taking place and is planned to take place in the near future in manufacturing industry in Yorkshire? Is not that a sign of great confidence in the future of manufacturing and our country?

    Mr. Major I entirely agree with my hon. Friend. There has been a considerable degree of investment in manufacturing in the past few years. Equally as important as the quantum of investment has been the quality and nature of the investment that we have seen during the past few years.

    Mr. D. N. Campbell-Savours (Workington) Is not it true that any old Chancellor can reduce inflation if he is prepared to kick people out of work and reduce consumption by in effect strangling the whole economy? Is not the real art to reduce inflation by keeping people in work and maintaining demand? Why does not the Chancellor pursue such a strategy? Is that not in the national interest?

    Mr. Major How curious it is, in view of the hon. Gentleman’s remarks, that we have more of our population in work than any other nation in Europe.

    Mr. John Townend (Bridlington) May I congratulate my right hon. Friend on resisting the demands of the Opposition and, indeed, some of his colleagues, for higher expenditure? Is he aware that by continuing to run a budget surplus and repay the national debt he is doing a great service to our children and grandchildren? He mentioned wage increases. Does he agree that the public sector must set an example this year if we are to bring down inflation as quickly as we hope?

    Mr. Major I am grateful to my hon. Friend. He is right about the repayment of the historic national debt which, by the end of this year, will have amounted to about £29 billion over the past four years. Consequently, there has been a considerable year-on-year saving in interest which will no longer have to be paid on that debt. My hon. Friend is right about the need to restrain wage increases generally.

    Mr. Keith Vaz (Leicester, East) The Chancellor will recall that a couple of weeks ago he was a most unwelcome guest in my constituency [HON. MEMBERS: “Shame.”] While he was dining at the Grand Hotel with the chairman of the Conservative association, did the chairman tell him that the current waiting list for hip operations in Leicestershire was 29 weeks? As a result of the Chancellor’s grand proposals, how much less will people have to wait for operations in Leicestershire?

    Mr. Major The hon. Gentleman is too gracious in his welcome. The chairman of the Conservative association did mention that in the period up to 1979 there were virtually no hip operations anywhere in the national health service.

    Mr. Yeo Would it be fair to characterise my right hon. Friend’s statement as one that puts teachers and textbooks before tax and patients before prisons? Has the achievement of containing public spending in real terms at the same time as directing resources to those highly desirable areas been made possible by the success of the Government’s policies over the past decade in defence and law and order?

    Mr. Major My hon. Friend is entirely right. He certainly analyses the autumn statement correctly. Had it not been for the staunch and successful way in which the Government decided to station cruise missiles two or three years ago and the effects that followed from that, I doubt whether we could safely have reduced defence expenditure today.

    Mr. Skinner Why does the Chancellor of the Exchequer come to the House of Commons with nothing less than a cock and bull story? During the past 11 years, the Government have accumulated more than £120 billion in extra revenue through privatisation and North sea oil revenues. As a result of those 11 years, we now have a public sector debt repayment which, according to him, will be only £3 billion next year and will disappear from view the following year, a trade balance of £15 billion and invisibles that are almost invisible, whereas they used to amount to £700 million a month. No wonder he says that the economy must be put back on track. He is running an economy that is off the rails.

    Mr. Major I am bound to say that a PSDR of only £3 billion was not a beast that I recall during the period of the Labour Government. The hon. Gentleman referred to a cock and bull story. We know which of those he talks.

    Mr. Richard Alexander (Newark) My right hon. Friend told the House the total amount of saving in the national debt which will be achieved as a result of this statement. How much saving to income tax payers will be represented by the fact that they no longer have to pay the interest payments on that capital sum?

    Mr. Major It will be a considerable sum. I cannot give my hon. Friend a precise answer, but we are talking about approximately £2.5 billion a year which is perhaps equivalent to 1p or 1.5p on the standard rate of income tax.

    Mr. Paul Flynn (Newport, West) Will the Chancellor of the Exchequer comment on the claimed increase in what he might describe as “bedlessness” in that, by next April, 3,500 hospital beds will close to comply with the Government’s “finance first and patients last” policy? What effect will today’s statement and the closure of those hospital beds have on waiting lists next year? Will they stay the same, increase or decrease?

    Mr. Major The hon. Gentleman should perhaps look at the whole question in the round. The cash increase for the hospital and community health services budget was more than 10 per cent. in 1990–91. Even on the basis of health service inflation, which the hon. Member for Hackney, North and Stoke Newington (Ms. Abbott) mentioned, that is a substantial increase over and above inflation. The same health authorities to which the hon. Gentleman referred are also planning to spend more than £220 million on service developments. If there are volume increases on that scale, I see no reason for the shortfall to which he refers.

    Mr. Michael Morris (Northampton, South) I congratulate my right hon. Friend on giving the House such a clear financial strategy, which contrasts with the questioning from Opposition Benches. May I congratulate him on a realistic planning total for reserves? To return to the welcome 5 per cent. real increase in health expenditure, will he say whether the planning total on which this is based is at least no lower than the planning total for the current year?

    Mr. Major Yes, I can certainly confirm that it is a 5 per cent. real increase. It is there specifically to reflect the priority that we give to health. I am grateful to my hon. Friend for his early remarks, particularly those about the increase in reserves. With the present uncertainties, it is wise to increase them to £3½ billion, £7 billion and £10½ billion respectively. Events may yet show that.

    Mr. Wareing Is not the Chancellor of the Exchequer misleading the House when he tells us that, despite tight control of public expenditure, vulnerable people are to be protected? How does he justify a cut in Government grant for the first time in history to the Royal National Institute for the Blind to assist it with the production of braille material? How long will it be before people, such as blind people, are not expected to bail the Government out of the economic mess for which they are responsible? Who is responsible for that decision and what is the justification for it?

    Mr. Major The answer to whether I am misleading is categorically no. The hon. Gentleman asked about the blind. He would do well to reflect upon the changes that I made in the Budget specifically to help people with that most distressing ailment.

    Sir Ian Lloyd (Havant) The Chancellor will doubtless agree that if the claims of every organisation in the country which said that it was underfunded were met, the Chief Secretary would be coming before the House with a claim for about 60 per cent. of the national income rather than the figure that he has announced. The Chancellor told us that the increase in output in real terms is likely to be 2 per cent. and probably not much more in the foreseeable future. Against that, those very expensive organizations – the national health service and local government – have received increases of just over £5.5 billion or 5 per cent. in real terms. If those claims are met in real terms which sectors of the economy will pay for them in real terms?

    Mr. Major My hon. Friend is right about the inevitable claims that could be placed upon the public purse, often for quite legitimate schemes which, if the resources were available, one would be pleased to meet. The substantial increase for health and local government is at the expense of other areas in which we have been able to make savings and, of course, at the expense of a smaller debt repayment than might otherwise have been the case.

    Mr. John Evans (St. Helens, North) Will the Chancellor confirm that, despite his words about protecting the most vulnerable groups in society, his statement contains no additional community charge resources for northern metropolitan boroughs such as St. Helens? Does he agree that any system that gives the borough of Westminster twice as much money per child to care for children at risk from abuse and poverty than it gives to children in St. Helens is corrupt and indefensible?

    Mr. Major The hon. Gentleman has uncharacteristically overlooked the enormous increase of £2.5 billion made available to cushion community charge payers, often from unjustified levels of expenditure. He has equally uncharacteristically forgotten the £3 billion increase in social security that is specifically to help vulnerable people.

    Mr. Quentin Davies (Stamford and Spalding) I congratulate my right hon. Friends the Chancellor and the Chief Secretary on striking an extremely skilful balance in achieving a £200 billion public expenditure outturn. Does my right hon. Friend agree that in the fight against inflation there is a trade-off between the public sector surplus or net debt repayment and private sector savings? In that context, one of the most encouraging features of the past few months has been the rise in the household sector savings ratio. Does he agree that that will continue to play a key role in the fight against inflation?

    Mr. Major I strongly agree with my hon. Friend. The savings ratio has increased significantly over the past year as a result of increased savings and reduced borrowing. I hope that that trend will continue because it is greatly in all our interests for it to do so.

    Mr. Stuart Bell (Middlesbrough) The Chancellor said that there was central Government provision for the poll tax of about £3,000 million. He also said that the poll tax had helped to double the retail prices index from last year’s forecast of 5.75 per cent. to 11 per cent. He also accepted that local government borrowing had been higher because of the slow collection rate of the poll tax. Is it any wonder that the poll tax is as unpopular today as it was when it was introduced?

    Mr. Major The community charge added 1 per cent. to the retail prices index. The hon. Gentleman is entirely correct about that. However, it was not so much the community charge itself but the increasing level of expenditure reflected in a high community charge that added to the retail prices index. It is difficult to avoid the fact that in the first year of the community charge there was a quite unprecedented increase in local authority expenditure. That was because many local authorities took the opportunity on the introduction of the charge to increase their expenditure in the hope of blaming the Government for it.

    Mr. Jonathan Sayeed (Bristol, East) Will my right hon. Friend remind the House what happened to the ratio of public expenditure to national income in previous periods of slower growth and what were the consequences for inflation?

    Mr. Major My hon. Friend touches on an important point. Both in this country and elsewhere, at times in the cycle similar to that in which we now find ourselves, the ratio of public expenditure tended to rise dramatically with an impact on taxation and frequently on inflation, too.

    Mr. Peter Hardy (Wentworth) The Chancellor seems to strike a rather complacent note on the creation of jobs. Will he confirm that a very much larger proportion of the jobs created in Britain in the past few years has been casual, low paid and part time – far more casual, low paid and part time than the jobs created in our main competitor countries?

    Mr. Major The hon. Gentleman is correct in that some, but not all, of the jobs are indeed part time, but that reflects many people’s demand to work part time. They are now able to satisfy themselves on that count as they were previously unable to do. Whichever way one examines the labour market, we have a significantly higher percentage of our population in work than any other European nation, including Germany.

    Mrs. Edwina Currie (Derbyshire, South) Am I right in thinking that we are spending a lot more on education – that in fact education has done rather well out of this statement? But do we have systems in place that will ensure that the money is spent – especially in counties such as Derbyshire – on improving the quality of education and the physical fabric of our schools and not, as it is at the moment, with excessive administration expense, on free newspapers, educational advisers who have nothing to do with education, and subsidised baked beans for school meals?

    Mr. Major My hon. Friend is quite correct. The figure of £520 million which I quoted earlier was the central Government increase. There is also a significant increase in local government spending in education, a large part of which is financed by the aggregate external finance settlement.

    Mr. Robert Hughes (Aberdeen, North) Does not the very elegant Treasury prose which the Chancellor read so beautifully – especially the part that said that the higher than expected inflation had not been allowed to feed through into Government public spending – disguise the fact that, never mind any improvements for the very vulnerable in our society, the health service and others will have to make cuts simply to keep pace with current demands?

    Mr. Major No, it does not. I illustrated to the House where the savings had been made to provide increased resources for the vulnerable; for education, social security and health. I set out where those savings had come from. So the hon. Gentleman’s premise is, I fear, inaccurate.

    Mr. Nicholas Winterton (Macclesfield) Although I warmly welcome the additional resources allocated to health, education and infrastructure in the announcement made by my right hon. Friend this afternoon, does he agree that manufacturing industry is the only genuine source of non-inflationary economic growth and that he would be able to allocate even more resources to those deserving and necessary areas if interest rates came down and if manufacturing industry could play a more positive and productive role in the economy?

    Mr. Major As my hon. Friend knows, the thrust of the Government’s present fiscal and monetary stance is to move to a position where we can see inflation falling significantly which will open the possibility, when it is safe and secure to do so, to reduce interest rates. I shall certainly do that, but not, alas, until I am convinced that it is safe and secure to do so. To do so prematurely would not be in the interests of manufacturing industry or of any other part of the economy.

    Mr. Peter L. Pike (Burnley) The Chancellor forecast that he would receive £5.5 billion from the proceeds of privatisation. He is going to repay national debt to the tune of £3 billion. If he was producing a balance sheet, would not he have to show that he is using £2.5 billion to subsidise the programme for the year ahead and that he will end up with £5.5 billion less in assets? What will he do when there is no more family silver to sell?

    Mr. Major The £5.5 billion is next year and the £3 billion is this year. If we were borrowing at the rate at which the last Labour Government borrowed, there would be a £50 billion borrowing requirement.

    Several Hon. Members rose–

    Mr. Speaker Order. A very important foreign affairs debate will follow the autumn statement. I wonder whether, exceptionally, I could have an arrangement with those hon. Members who are standing. If I call them on the autumn statement, may I ask them not to rise on the business statement?

    Mr. Richard Tracey (Surbiton) My right hon. Friend’s allocation of resources to health, transport and education will be particularly welcomed in my constituency and in London generally. As we are not allowed by the rules of the House to question the Opposition on the various intemperate promises that they have dangled before the public, will my right hon. Friend speculate on how a Labour Government could possibly pay for the kind of promises that the Opposition have made? What extra taxation and borrowing would be needed?

    Mr. Major They would not, of course, pay. My hon. Friend and other taxpayers would pay. I am not sure that Mr. Speaker’s ruling is quite so welcome to me as it is to my right hon. Friend the Leader of the House.

    Mr. Speaker I am sorry.

    Mr. Jacques Arnold (Gravesham) My right hon. Friend will be aware of the concern about global environmental issues, overseas aid and the work of the BBC’s overseas service. Will he confirm that his statement means that these important British programmes will be both safeguarded and extended?

    Mr. Major I can confirm that there is to be an increase in resources for the BBC world service. On the environment, I referred earlier to the increase of £180 million.

    Sir Hal Miller (Bromsgrove) Will my right hon. Friend reflect on the contribution made by the motor industry to the achievement of his targets in the autumn statement? It has expanded employment and radically improved the balance of trade. When he makes his Budget judgment will he bear the industry’s contribution in mind?

    Mr. Major I am grateful to my hon. Friend for his early representations. It is true that the turnround in the motor industry’s performance in recent years has been remarkable.

    Mr. Peter Thurnham (Bolton, North-East) I congratulate my right hon. Friend on a tight and financially prudent package, but will he confirm that he has also been able fully to protect those groups that are particularly vulnerable to inflation?

    Mr. Major As I said in my statement, the £3 billion increase in social security is intended specifically to ensure that that occurs. I believe, therefore, that I can give to my hon. Friend the assurance that he seeks.

    Mr. James Paice (Cambridgeshire, South-East) While, Mr. Chairman – [HON. MEMBERS: “Mr. Chairman?”] One has waited so long, Mr. Speaker, one forgets.

    Mr. Speaker It is lucky that I do not forget, is it not?

    Mr. Paice My right hon. Friend’s statement, which included extra expenditure on a range of important services, is welcome, but does he agree that he would have been able to give far more within the same planning total had it not been for the profligacy of local government? Does he also agree that those who call for extra expenditure should direct their criticism at authorities that waste money in the belief that by providing jobs they are in some way helping? Instead they should provide cost-effective services.

    Mr. Major My hon. Friend is entirely right. When he has an opportunity to examine in detail the figures that I shall publish next week, he will see that we have had to squeeze central Government expenditure to accommodate the local government expenditure overrun.

    Mr. Michael Jack (Fylde) Can my right hon. Friend confirm that had he been making his announcement today with the same proportion of gross domestic product available to him in tax revenue as the last Labour Government enjoyed, his total expenditure would have been short by some £18 billion? Can he also confirm that this remarkable achievement has come about during the lifetime of this Government, even though there have been falling tax rates?

    Mr. Major I can certainly confirm that, but I cannot confirm the precise figure. I have no reason, however, to suspect that my hon. Friend’s figure is inaccurate. There have been falling tax rates. The only reason why the tax burden has not fallen, relatively, is that the last Labour Government had a borrowing requirement and did not tax honestly for their expenditure.

  • Mr Major’s Written Parliamentary Answer on Interest Rates – 25 October 1990

    Below is the text of Mr Major’s written Parliamentary Answer on Interest Rates on 25th October 1990.


    Mr. Dykes To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will make a statement on the results of his interest rate policy to date.

    Mr. Major Monetary indicators and evidence from the real economy both point firmly to a reduction in inflationary pressures, as a result of the Government’s sustained policy of high interest rates.

  • Mr Major’s Exchange Rate Mechanism Statement – 23 October 1990

    The text of Mr Major’s Exchange Rate Mechanism Statement, made on 23rd October 1990 in the House of Commons.


    Mr. Speaker I have selected the amendment in the name of the Leader of the Opposition. Furthermore, as 39 right hon. and hon. Members have already submitted an application to speak, I propose to place a 10-minute limit on speeches between 6 pm and 8 pm. I am afraid that that may mean that some Privy Councillors will be called within that 10-minute period. In fairness to all, I hope that right hon. and hon. Members who are called will bear that limit broadly in mind.

    The Chancellor of the Exchequer (Mr. John Major) I beg to move, That this House congratulates the Government on joining the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the European Monetary System; notes the clear evidence that the Government’s tight monetary and fiscal policies are reducing inflationary pressures in the economy; and believes Exchange Rate Mechanism membership will reinforce the Government’s counter-inflationary strategy and help to strengthen the framework for a sustained improvement in economic performance. Sterling’s entry into the exchange rate mechanism is undoubtedly an important economic event and, moreover, an event which has long had the general support of the House, industry, commerce, the City and most, although inevitably not all, economic commentators.

    This debate is a welcome opportunity to set out the rationale for entry; the potential advantages and constraints that it brings with it; and to consider also the effects of standing aloof from membership. I wish also to address the details of entry: the rate; the timing; the bands; and the necessary discipline of membership. And, of course, I shall touch also upon how entry affects the wider question of economic and monetary union, which is, I know, of great concern to the House.

    It is now 12 years since the European monetary system and the exchange rate mechanism were established. At the outset, in 1978, the last Labour Government decided not to join the exchange rate mechanism. Since then the question whether and, if so, when we should join has been an important and contentious issue at the very centre of political and economic debate.

    Two years ago my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister set out our commitment to join the mechanism and the conditions in which we would do so. On the free movement of capital, the single market, competition policy, and the liberalisation of financial services those important conditions have effectively been met for some time. It is possible to quibble about them only if excuses are being sought not to enter the ERM.

    For some months the key remaining condition has been that domestic conditions – and our inflation performance in particular – should enable us to accept the exchange rate discipline. In economic terms, what mattered for that was not what happened in the months leading up to membership, nor was it the distortions in comparative inflation performance caused by different methods of measuring inflation. The important factor was that our inflation performance would enable us to converge and thus enable us to compete at the chosen exchange rate. It was for that reason that we did not join the mechanism until we were absolutely sure that our tight monetary policies were having their intended effect and inflationary pressures were easing.

    That is now the position. The evidence that this has now happened comes first from the monetary aggregates. The growth of narrow money, M0, has fallen in each of the last five months and is now back well within the target range I set for this year. M4 growth – broad money – has fallen steadily throughout 1990 and currently stands at its lowest point for nearly three and a half years. Bank lending has also decelerated sharply.

    In the real economy the picture is the same. The indicators show that the economy is slowing, as indeed it must if inflation is to fall. That is clear in the high street, it is clear in the housing market, it is clear in the figures for car sales, and it is clear in activity generally. It is clear also in the gradual and welcome recovery in the savings ratio, which hit its low point of 4.9 per cent. in the third quarter of 1988 and has now risen again to 7.7 per cent.

    It was those conditions – that amalgam of conditions which are now clear – which prompted me to cut interest rates by I per cent. at the same time as entry. Some external commentators claim that it was too early; others claim that it was too late. I am confident that events will justify the timing of that reduction in interest rates.

    If I had cut interest rates before joining the exchange rate mechanism, I believe that it would have been viewed by the markets and by commentators as driving the exchange rate down before entry or, alternatively, as a signal that entry was to be delayed. Both of those were wrong and both would have weakened the exchange rate and thus our anti-inflationary position. It was for those reasons that I announced both those steps at the same time to ensure that the markets were fully aware of our position as we entered the mechanism and were fully aware of what the immediate prospect was for monetary policy.

    Mr. D. N. Campbell-Savours (Workington) On timing, in so far as it is quite clear from a series of parliamentary questions given to me by Ministers that people in the Bank of England, senior civil servants and some Ministers knew of the Chancellor’s intention to make his statement at 4 o’clock on that Friday, and in so far as it is also known that Ministers and civil servants may well have met people in City institutions in the five days prior to that Friday, why cannot we now have a leak inquiry into how three separate markets in the City rose substantially in the 90 minutes before 4 o’clock, in conditions in which some people made millions of pounds in capital gains in a few minutes? Why cannot we have a leak inquiry into that? Let us have the truth.

    Mr. Major If the hon. Gentleman has any information whatsoever to suggest that there was advance knowledge of entry into the exchange rate mechanism – [Interruption]. Perhaps the hon. Gentleman would do me the courtesy of listening. If he will give that evidence to me, I shall ensure that it is placed before the proper authorities and that the appropriate action is taken. Unsubstantiated allegations do not help. If the hon. Gentleman really believes that there was a leak, he should provide the information so that it can be properly examined and not make widespread scatter-gun allegations for which at the moment he has provided no evidence.

    As we have seen repeatedly throughout the past 30 years or so, inflation is always one of the last measures in the economy to register that the growth of demand is falling away; and the rise in oil prices in the past few months has complicated the picture this time and, conceivably, may yet push up the headline total further. But I now have no doubt that we shall see inflation falling substantially throughout next year. It will do so particularly quickly from next April, and for two reasons: the underlying rate will improve and some of the unusual adverse factors that have artificially boosted the headline rate will drop out next year. Our inflation performance will improve therefore both in absolute terms, and, just as importantly for entry into the mechanism, relative to those of our European competitors. I shall make a detailed forecast in the autumn statement in due course.

    There was, therefore, no reason for further delay in meeting our long-standing commitment to join the ERM. There is a further point of some importance. The persistent market rumours of entry and non-entry were damaging to stability and created uncertainty for industry. Week after week some chance remark, some speculation, some unsubstantiated rumour changed the value of sterling. I wished therefore to end the damaging uncertainty at the earliest possible moment, and I believe it was right to do so.

    Mr. Harry Ewing (Falkirk, East) rose – –

    Mr. Major Perhaps the hon. Gentleman will forgive me if I do not give way for a moment.

    The House will remember that I answered questions on this matter for an hour a week ago. I shall be here at the Dispatch Box on Thursday and a vast number of hon. Members – [Interruption]. Perhaps hon. Members would listen for a moment. A vast number of hon. Members wish to speak today. I shall give way to a small number, but perhaps not as generously as I sometimes do.

    Mr. Harry Ewing I am grateful to the Chancellor for giving way. If the right hon. Gentleman is pleading that the reason that he took this country into the exchange rate mechanism was to get rid of all the rumours about whether we would or would not join, is not that the fault on the one hand of the Prime Minister, who constantly said that we would not join, and of the Chancellor himself on the other hand, who constantly said that we would join? Which of the two of them was the City and the country to believe?

    Mr. Major The hon. Gentleman will do well tomorrow to read my speech in Hansard. He will then see that I made it perfectly clear that we entered because I thought that the conditions were right for our entry. I set that out plainly. I also set out a subsidiary matter that weighed on my mind – that the essential reason for entry was that the market conditions were met and the preconditions that we had set out were now right for sterling to enter the mechanism.

    The belief that we should end the uncertainty and that we should enter early was also held by others. We got a great deal of advice. In June we were told: We do not urge the Government to wait until some unspecified rate of inflation or fulfilment of the Madrid conditions is attained. We urge them to commence discussions now.” – [Official Report, 15 June 1990; Vol. 174, c. 636.] That was not an overenthusiastic Member of the European Parliament speaking – it was the Opposition Front Bench in the persona of the hon. Member for Islington, South and Finsbury (Mr. Smith). Nor was that an isolated comment. In August the hon. Gentleman was strongly supported in that view by his right hon. and learned Friend the Member for Monklands, East (Mr. Smith), who said: I don’t think there is ever going to be a perfect time for Britain to enter the ERM, and I think therefore that we should take the opportunity to do so at the earliest time. That is what I have done and the reason why Opposition Members attack us is that they know that we have taken the right decision and they do not want to acknowledge it. They want to hide the fact that their party is split asunder on the issue. [Interruption]. Oh yes. Of course, Opposition Members want it both ways. If we had delayed they would have questioned our intention of going in. They would have said that my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister was preventing us. Now that we have gone in they question our motives and claim that my right hon. Friend has been pushed. The simple truth is that my right hon. Friend first stated our commitment to entry during stage 1 – over two years ago. She and I have been discussing possible dates for months. Four months after the start of stage 1 we found an appropriate date and honoured our promise. That is what Opposition Members cannot stomach. Their attitude is the typical triumph of expediency over conviction – [HON. MEMBERS: “Your attitude.”] That is their attitude.

    Now that we are in the ERM we need to be entirely clear about what it means. First, maintaining the exchange rate will be an important discipline. Tight monetary conditions will have to be sustained to put continued downward pressure on inflation. Joining the ERM in no way replaces the need for a tight monetary policy; it reinforces it. Indeed, making a success of the ERM means making a success of our own domestic monetary policy, not abandoning it. That is why joining the ERM is in no sense a soft option or a short-term one.

    The euphoria with which some people greeted the news of our entry seemed to me mistaken; and the argument that entry has short-term advantages and a long-term cost is wholly misleading. In fact, it is a complete misunderstanding of the ERM. In the short term, membership will require tough action to ensure that we achieve low inflation thereafter. The rewards are long term with that very low rate of inflation. That does mean making no further reductions in interest rates until it is prudent to do so.

    Mr. Anthony Nelson (Chichester) My right hon. Friend has referred to the prospect of reductions in interest rates. Is not it probable that, if we were within the narrower band of fluctuations within the ERM, as certain other European countries are, we would enjoy lower rates of interest, as they currently do? As it is a matter of enormous interest to millions of mortgage payers and others in Britain, can my right hon. Friend say a little about the conditions that must be precedent upon our becoming part of the narrower bands of the ERM?

    Mr. Major I shall turn shortly to the question of the narrow band.

    In case there was any misunderstanding a moment or so ago, I was saying clearly that membership means that we shall be in a position to make no further reductions in interest rates until it is prudent to do so. I hope that that point is fully taken on board. I shall turn to my hon. Friend’s specific point in a second or so.

    What we have undertaken is an express obligation to keep sterling within the bands around our central rate of DM2.95. We take that obligation seriously and we intend to meet it. We decided to enter the mechanism with wide 6 per cent. margins to give sterling an opportunity to settle down. It is a widely traded currency and it is necessary to give the markets some time to assess the implications for entry and the domestic response to it. But when conditions permit, and only then, we will move into the narrow 21 per cent. band to which my hon. Friend the Member for Chichester (Mr. Nelson) referred.

    I want to add a word about fiscal policy. Throughout the 1980s my two predecessors have successfully used fiscal policy to buttress monetary policy. That is precisely what we shall continue to do in future. But what we shall not do is to resort to fiscal fine tuning, the effects of which tend to be unpredictable and, in many cases, unworkable. I have no intention of returning to the era of mini-Budgets, but we will keep to our policy of a balanced budget over the medium term.

    Dr. Lewis Moonie (Kirkcaldy) rose – –

    Mr. Major If the hon. Gentleman will forgive me, I shall make a little more progress in the interests of several other hon. Members who wish to speak.

    It is clear that membership of the ERM will impose an extra discipline on the Government’s conduct of economic policy. But, equally, membership of the mechanism requires businesses and industry to take tough decisions of their own. Companies must understand the need to contain their costs – principally, but not, of course, exclusively, their wage costs. For them, joining the ERM means that devaluing our currency to bail out uncompetitive firms is no longer an option. It was never an attractive one and now it has gone. It is ruled out by our commitment to maintain a broadly stable exchange rate. If the costs of British companies rise, inevitably orders will be lost, profits will be squeezed, jobs will be shed, and companies will put their futures at risk. That has always been true, but ERM membership will make it even more apparent, for the devaluation option is no longer there.

    For business, staying competitive means relating wage rises to what is realistic and justifiable. That means what can be afforded by the individual company facing tight competition in the international market with no help from a falling exchange rate.

    Sir Anthony Grant (Cambridgeshire, South-West) On that point, does my right hon. Friend agree that the necessary exhortations to pay restraint would be very much helped if senior leading industrialists who are on performance-related pay related their pay to not only the profits but the losses that they sometimes sustain?

    Mr. Major I share that view strongly. Leadership in this matter must come from the top, and I hope that it will do so.

    Mr. Dennis Skinner (Bolsover) Is not the truth of the matter that the exchange rate mechanism is another name for a Common Market incomes policy? Why should people who work for a living, the real wealth creators, have a wages or incomes policy stuffed down their throats by the Government when the bosses got increases of 28 per cent. the year before last and 33 per cent. last year? In the past 10 years the wealthiest 1 per cent. in Britain have received cumulatively £26.2 billion in tax cuts; now they are calling upon the workers to bail out this Government, but they have no intention of doing so. Everyone who is fighting to get a living wage needs the support of Opposition Members to sustain that living wage.

    Mr. Major Well, so much for unity on the Opposition Benches about joining the ERM.

    On the substantive point that the hon. Gentleman makes, he will be aware that I have said before – I reiterated my remarks to my hon. Friend the Member for Cambridgeshire, South-West (Sir A. Grant) – that I share his view that the sacrifices that may need to be made on wages must apply to those at the top of industry as well as those elsewhere.

    The hon. Member for Bolsover (Mr. Skinner) should be aware, however, of the consequences of taking his theory a stage further. The consequences for people not obeying that necessary discipline will be lost jobs. I cannot compel people to negotiate sensibly, but I have an obligation to make it absolutely clear to people what the effect of not negotiating sensibly will be. That I am seeking to do, and that I am prepared to do; and I share the hon. Gentleman’s view that that applies to all people in industry and commerce and not just to those on the shop floor. What does that mean? It means negotiating what can be afforded by the individual company facing the international competition in the market. In essence, it is that which will determine our performance.

    There can be no more negotiating around the benchmark of the retail prices index as though that represented the minimum increase it was reasonable to expect. I know that that kind of inflationary psychology is deeply embedded in the consciousness of British industry. I believe that, over the years, it has damaged us greatly, and, if it continues, it will cost us jobs in the future. I do not for a second underestimate the cultural change that that will mean for many wage negotiators, but the sooner they make the change the better. That psychology needs to be shaken out of the system, for the Government cannot keep companies competitive – they can only warn them of the dangers that they face. Their fate is in their hands – the hands of those on each side of the negotiating table who will determine the future of their companies and their work forces in the next few years.

    Mr. Rhodri Morgan (Cardiff, West) I am grateful to the Chancellor for telling the House that the Government cannot bail out companies that persist in using the RPI as a benchmark for wage increases. If the Opposition accept that, will the right hon. Gentleman accept that he should not allow his Ministers to use the RPI as a benchmark for price increases in former nationalised industries now in private ownership? The electricity industry has not yet been privatised, but its prices are set to rise every year by an RPI-related formula. Is the right hon. Gentleman prepared to instruct the Secretaries of State for Energy and for Trade and Industry to give up that practice, which is applied to British Telecom, water and gas charges?

    Mr. Major Some of those increases are less than the retail prices index and many of the others are far more specifically related to investment performance than to anything else.

    Those are the constraints and restraints which management and work forces will need to accept if we are to make a success of membership of the exchange rate mechanism. I know that they are not easy, but I believe that they are worth while because they will help us to achieve lower inflation by reinforcing existing policies. I am delighted that, fully understanding those points, the CBI has given such a warm welcome to our decision to enter the ERM.

    In recent years, the average inflation performance of the countries participating in the ERM has been significantly better than that of all those outside the mechanism. Between 1979 and July 1990, inflation in countries within the mechanism fell by nearly two thirds; in European countries outside the ERM, by one sixth; and in OECD countries outside the mechanism, by two fifths.

    As inflation in member countries has come down, the prospects for steady, sustainable economic growth have improved, and that is the prize to be achieved. The growth rates in Germany, France, Italy and a number of smaller mechanism countries have increased in the last few years and the prospects for growth continuing at favourable rates in the future appear good. I believe strongly that that is a goal worth pursuing by us as well.

    Mr. Jeff Rooker (Birmingham, Perry Barr) rose – –

    Mr. Major I hope that the hon. Gentleman will forgive me if I do not give way. I have given way on a number of occasions, and I am conscious of the number of hon. Members who wish to take part in the debate.

    Moreover, maintaining a broadly stable exchange rate will assist British companies to plan ahead and to invest with greater certainty about the future. Since the mechanism has been in operation, there have been a few changes of parities, but there has been no substantive realignment since the beginning of 1987.

    That stability will enable firms to develop their business strategies in Europe and be well placed for the opportunities of the single market. They will no longer face the problems of exchange rate movements disrupting their plans by imposing on them unexpected cost increases or pricing their goods out of the European market. It will mean, in my judgment, that Britain will prove still more attractive to inward investors. We already attract more direct investment from abroad than any other Community country. Membership of the ERM can only add to that.

    During my statement last week, a number of hon. Members expressed concern at the exchange rate at which we had entered. For some of them the argument was a surrogate for outright opposition to entry at any exchange rate. But others are concerned lest the rate we have chosen is too high. That reflects a longstanding argument over whether devaluation is required for economic success. It is a legitimate argument which has a long political pedigree, but I believe that it is wholly wrong.

    I believe that our central rate can be sustained, and I will explain why. Some hon. Members fear that the exchange rate will damage exports and encourage imports. But experience in recent years suggests that other factors are more important. The volume of our exports, excluding oil and erratic items, is up 8 per cent. on last year, and our share of world trade in manufactures increased in 1989 and is likely to rise again this year. Japan and Germany, with the firmest exchange rates over the last decade, also have the best current account performance.

    The rate that we have chosen is also sterling’s recent market rate and the average real exchange rate over recent years after making adjustment for differential inflation performance. Other subsidiary information suggests that we have not put sterling at a competitive disadvantage. Independent analyses suggests that DM2.95 is sustainable. Indeed, a report by CBI economists only recently advocated entry into the mechanism at around the bands that we have chosen. Some comments that I have read have focused on the dollar. I would only make the point that our membership of the ERM does not in any way determine the sterling dollar exchange rate.

    Mr. Peter Shore (Bethnal Green and Stepney) The inflation-adjusted real exchange rate of DM2.95, or the right hon. Gentleman’s choice of that rate, is 20 per cent. higher – that is, an appreciation of sterling against the mark – than it was in the first half of 1987, which was the last time we were in current account balance with the rest of the world. We are now disastrously in deficit. We are going in at an exchange rate 20 per cent. higher against the mark than it was when we were last in balance. What does the right hon. Gentleman say about that?

    Mr. Major We are in deficit because of the growth of demand, which is self-evident from the change in our position during the past year as sterling has appreciated and the trade gap has begun closing. Therefore, there is no reason why British companies should not compete successfully in Europe at present exchange rates, and, in the medium term, with lower inflation, they will compete even more successfully.

    Although entry to the mechanism is part of our commitment to stage I of economic monetary union and the single market, it in no sense commits us to the Delors approach for stages 2 or 3. I assure the House that there has been no shift, no weakening in our opposition to the imposition of a single currency and a single monetary authority. We remain opposed to that, and I believe that our opposition has the overwhelming support of the House. That does not mean that we shall play a wrecking role at the intergovernmental conference – the IGC. We have no intention of doing that. We shall continue to advocate our plans for the development of the hard ecu.

    We believe that our proposals are practical, evolutionary and based on markets and choice. They offer a realistic solution that would enable the 12 to move forward together without risking damaging rifts in the Community. They leave open the possibility of the hard ecu evolving towards a parallel currency and then a single currency, but only if that were the wish of Governments and peoples. That is subject for ever to the check of the House of Commons.

    Mr. Paddy Ashdown (Yeovil) The House will have made particular note of the right hon. Gentleman’s use of the word “evolutionary”. The matter that isolates Britain in Europe, divides the Conservative party and splits the Cabinet is whether his hard ecu is to be regarded as the ultimate, final position or is a transition to a future European single currency. If in due course, his hard ecu proposals were to be used as a transition mechanism to a single European currency, would the Chancellor oppose that?

    Mr. Major If the right hon. Gentleman reads what I have just said, he will have his answer.

    Our proposals are those that I have set out on a number of occasions and are subject to the check of the House of Commons at future stages.

    Mr. Julian Amery (Brighton, Pavilion) While I fully understand the Chancellor’s reluctance to have anything to do with the date of 1994 proposed by the German Chancellor, cannot he say that if everyone were prepared to go ahead with the hard ecu in 1994 we should be happy to go along with them?

    Mr. Major We must wait and see how the IGC develops. But the only way in which this country could proceed would be on the basis of the hard ecu, for in my judgment there is no will in the House or country to surrender the use of sterling as our currency.

    During the past half an hour or so, I have set out in some detail what I believe will be the effect of membership of the exchange rate mechanism and our policies. I hope that in the next few minutes the right hon. Member for Islwyn (Mr. Kinnock) will set out his views with equal clarity. Judged by what he has said, there is more agreement between us than he may imagine. He shares my view that entry is not an alternative to the economic realities – he has said so – can work to the advantage of the British people – he has said so – and can help in securing stability – he has said so, and I agree with him about that.

    I hope, therefore, that as I have done, the right hon. Gentleman will set out his party’s policy precisely – on rates, bands, timing, and fiscal policy. He committed himself to entry some years ago, so he has had ample time to consider the implications. If he does not do so, the suspicion will arise that Labour’s commitment to enter the mechanism has been nothing more than a device – a clever device but a device none the less – which was intended to hide the fact that there is no real determination to tackle inflation at the heart of the Labour party’s policies.

    The conditions that they devised for entry into the mechanism are frankly incredible. They involve fundamentally subverting the whole purpose and structure of the EMS. The main reason why many people on all sides of the political spectrum have come to appreciate the benefits of the mechanism is that it provides a buttress and an anchor against inflation. That is precisely the feature of the mechanism which the Labour party planned to ditch.

    That could not have been clearer from the remarks made by the Opposition in the House last week. Time and again they made it plain that their inclination would always be to take the easy option and to go for devaluation. When the right hon. Gentleman replies, will he tell the House: would he devalue or would he fight inflation? He cannot do both, and if he is to be credible he must tell us which he would do.

    I noted with interest that the Opposition’s amendment commends credit controls similar to those in other exchange rate mechanism countries. I wonder which countries he has in mind, for France had credit controls, but abandoned them at the end of 1987, Italy had bank loan ceilings, which were last used in 1988, the Netherlands had an informal corset – it lapsed some months ago. Germany has never used credit controls proper, although it uses a reserve asset ratio, as we use Treasury bills. In Europe, only Spain, Greece and Portugal have credit controls. Perhaps the right hon. Gentleman can tell us whether he equates our economy to theirs, and what sort of credit controls he plans to introduce. Under a Labour Government no doubt that is the sort of economy that we might move to.

    The truth is that membership of the exchange rate mechanism involves maintaining an agreed range for the exchange rate and it requires tight monetary discipline to counter inflation. In short, it involves all the things that the Labour party has set its mind against.

    For us, the ERM stands for stability – for effective, reliable management; it stands for low inflation – for an end to ruining money. For the Opposition it means credit controls – and excessive restrictions on mortgages. It stands for all its old policies of expropriation, re-nationalisation and meddling. I commend our policy to the House.

    Mr. Neil Kinnock (Islwyn) I beg to move, to leave out from “House” to the end of the Question and to add instead thereof: while recognising the potential opportunities for economic stability afforded by the inclusion of sterling in the Exchange Rate Mechanism, notes the failure of the Government to achieve the reduction in inflation repeatedly stipulated by the Prime Minister to be the essential condition to be satisfied before entry; considers that political expediency rather than economic considerations prompted the Government’s decision to participate in the Mechanism from 8th October; regards the Government’s continuing refusal to use credit controls similar to those employed in other Exchange Rate Mechanism countries as imprudent; deplores the fact that the task of achieving economic success within the Single Market and the Exchange Rate Mechanism has been made immensely more difficult by Government policies which have resulted in the United Kingdom experiencing a large and persistent current account deficit, 10.9 per cent. inflation, rising unemployment and losses in domestic and world manufacturing market share; again urges Her Majesty’s Government to adopt policies that are essential to the achievement of a productive and competitive economy, particularly those required for improvements in the quality of and opportunities for education and training, for the development of a modern economic infrastructure, including an adequate transport system, for the promotion of sustained investment in civilian research and development and for the instituting of a vigorous regional policy; and concludes that if such policies, long advocated by Her Majesty’s Opposition and long resisted by Her Majesty’s Government, are not adopted, producers in Britain will continue to work at considerable disadvantage by comparison with those in other Exchange Rate Mechanism member countries and the nation will continue to lag behind the standards of economic success and social progress achieved in other European Community countries.’. May I begin by saying how grateful we are to the Government for providing the time for this debate on their decision to take sterling into the exchange rate mechanism of the European monetary system on 8 October.

    As the Chancellor said, that was a decision of immense importance; it will have effects on every person, family and business in Britain; it will have significant influence on shaping all future economic policy and very obviously, it can have major implications for the constitutional future of our country and of the European Community. There can be no one in the House or outside who does not regard the decision to enter the exchange rate mechanism as being truly worthy of the adjective “momentous”, and since that is self-evidently true, it is all the more difficult for us and the British people to understand the refusal by the Head of the Government who made that decision to participate in the debate. [Interruption]. Let the Prime Minister speak for herself. It appears that the Prime Minister has chosen this significant occasion, of all occasions, to become untypically reticent, to embrace a previously undisclosed shyness, to become – how shall I put it – a sort of crypto-Trappist.

    Today and on previous occasions since entry to the ERM, the Chancellor has made a characteristically suave presentation of the circumstances in which the decision to put the pound into the ERM took place. We heard a repetition today of the way in which he put it at the Mansion house last Thursday. There is nothing wrong with that at all. It is one way of demonstrating total consistency, but it is causing some problems on the Government Front Bench.

    Dame Elaine Kellett-Bowman (Lancaster) The right hon. Gentleman should take a look at his lot.

    Mr. Kinnock I look at my lot with great pleasure.

    In the Mansion house on Thursday the Chancellor said that inflation was definitely coming down. He said: There was therefore no further reason for delay in entering the mechanism. And it was, of course, those very same conditions that indicated that a reduction in interest rates was now appropriate. I decided, therefore, to announce the two moves at once. It was a smooth and soothing explanation – and absolutely unconvincing to everybody concerned. Hardly anyone believed the Chancellor. In the markets and in the newspapers the general and justifiable feeling has been that his action was far more political than economic. Mr. Robin Marshall, chief economist at Chase Manhattan, said: Major comes out of this looking like Mrs Thatcher’s poodle. Mr. Peter Spencer, chief economist at Shearson Lehman, said: The base rate cut was clearly dictated by No. 10″. I can see from the friends that they have in the City that Conservative Members are hearing exactly the same thing. Those economists were only two of many people in similar positions who put the view that agreement to ERM entry was nothing more or less than the price paid by the Prime Minister for the 1 per cent. cut in interest rates that she needed to take to the Tory party conference. Never has so much been done that affects so many to please so few. [Interruption].

    Mr. Speaker Order.

    Mr. Kinnock Of course, those accusations of political rather than economic motivations are serious and they could have serious consequences. They call into question the credibility of the Government’s commitment to the ERM. In spite of that seriousness, the witness whose testimony is essential simply refuses to be called. At the Dispatch Box where, on this momentous issue, the Prime Minister should speak we have merely a question mark. The reason for the Prime Minister’s unwillingness to speak is quite obvious. The right hon. Lady has been saying since 1985 that we will go into the ERM only “when the time is ripe” and she could hardly say in this debate, “Inflation is 10.9 per cent., we have a huge balance of payments deficit, the economic consequences of the Gulf crisis are unknown, output and investment are down, so the time is not ripe. In fact, it’s pretty rotten – but we have entered the ERM in any case, regardless of everything that I have ever said before.”

    Mr. A. J. Beith (Berwick-upon-Tweed) Does the right hon. Gentleman himself think that the time was pretty rotten? Or have his conditions been satisfied? Can he conceive that his condition that the ERM should be accompanied by a Europewide reflation will ever be satisfied?

    Mr. Kinnock Our case was never made in the way in which the hon. Gentleman professes that it was made. Our argument has been, and remains, that when, from time to time, Europe is faced with the threat of Eurosclerosis – the hon. Gentleman will be familiar with the term – the case for joint growth strategies exists and is widely accepted. [Interruption]. I realise that Conservative Members are very reluctant to allow any answer to be given to a Liberal Democrat on this particular day: there is a certain Eastbourne sensitivity about. None the less, I shall reply to the hon. Member for Berwick-upon-Tweed (Mr. Beith) – [Interruption].

    Mr. Speaker Order. We shall make very slow progress at this rate. The Chancellor of the Exchequer was heard in relative silence; I ask for the same treatment for the Leader of the Opposition.

    Mr. Kinnock Thank you, Mr. Speaker. A different order of decency and discipline applies on this side of the House.

    Mr. Phillip Oppenheim (Amber Valley) rose – –

    Mr. Kinnock I will respond to the hon. Member for Amber Valley (Mr. Oppenheim) if he will first permit me to reply to the hon. Member for Berwick-upon-Tweed.

    It is true that my right hon. and hon. Friends and I have been making the case for entry into the exchange rate mechanism, because of its basic attractiveness, to which the Chancellor referred. It gives the British economy the necessary stability, allowing us – together with other policies – to secure an advance in productivity and competitiveness. That is still our case for entry: for that reason we welcomed Britain’s entry on the date on which it took place, and will continue to argue that ERM membership is right.

    That stability, however, is put in jeopardy if the Government’s commitment and the sincerity of the Prime Minister are not even evidenced by the right hon. Lady’s willingness to come to the Dispatch Box. I am sure that the Government will have noted the reactions to the circumstances in which Britain entered the ERM, and the excuses that they presented for their timing. The fact remains that our ERM membership is legitimate, valid and to be worked on to the advantage of our country.

    Mr. Oppenheim rose – –

    Sir Peter Hordern (Horsham) rose – –

    Mr. Major rose – –

    Mr. Kinnock I will give way to the Chancellor, by all means.

    Mr. Major I am grateful to the right hon. Gentleman for his courtesy.

    A moment ago, the right hon. Gentleman had something to say about the interest rate cut and the timing. May I remind him of what he said three days before we entered the ERM? First – at the Labour party conference – he said that the Government should cut the very high interest rate and should be negotiating entry into the exchange rate mechanism of the European monetary system. That is precisely what we did. Why will the right hon. Gentleman not give us unalloyed credit for doing it at the right time and in the right way?

    Mr. Kinnock The Chancellor negotiated nothing, other than a little deal with the Prime Minister to swap a 1 per cent. interest rate reduction for ERM entry. That was the only bit of negotiation.

    Mr. Major If the right hon. Gentleman will permit me, I will correct the misconception in his mind. Uniquely – somewhat to the irritation of our European partners – I told them the terms of entry that we sought before I went to them. We obtained those terms of entry, absolutely and entirely. I think that that is quite a success.

    Mr. Kinnock I really do not think that obtaining DM2.95 to the pound in a 6 per cent. band required all that much negotiating skill.

    The Chancellor asked me about a speech that I made. Let me tell him precisely what I said. I said not only that we wanted entry to the ERM, and would certainly have brought it about had we been in office, and not only that we wanted a reduction in interest rates, which we would also have introduced, but that we would have accompanied those moves with two other policies essential to the proper working of our economy in an intensely competitive European Community and trading world.

    First, we should institute exactly the same form of credit controls as those still operated in comparable countries with great success, and which result in much lower interest rates. The Banque de France operated such a policy only last Wednesday, to ensure that France could retain its position within the ERM while lessening the burden of interest rates on the productive sector of its economy. Conservative Members know that that is precisely what happened. Secondly, and most important, we still want a commitment – and I shall again make the case for it this afternoon – to a proper, comprehensive, modern, supply-side policy, something which the Government have never introduced and will never introduce.

    Mr. Oppenheim rose – –

    Mr. Kinnock I must continue. I gave way to the Chancellor, who asked an interesting question which required a prolonged answer.

    The Prime Minister’s absence from the Dispatch Box is further explained by the fact that she came to the House in June 1989, from the European Community summit, and told us that she had made it clear that before ERM entry, We must first get our inflation down. She told me that One condition of entry depends on us”. It was that we get inflation well down”. She was saying that repeatedly during all the following 15 months, right up to and including her visit to Switzerland where, on 20 September, she said: The Madrid conditions won’t be changed and they include getting inflation near to the European average. Nothing could be clearer, nothing could be more absolute, nothing could be more implacable than those words from the right hon. Lady – the prima donna of the Madrid conditions.

    Against that background, the Prime Minister plainly felt that it was beneath her dignity to come to the House today to justify her abandonment of that paramount condition on inflation, while simultaneously standing on her head. That is why she will not speak.

    Mr. Quentin Davies (Stamford and Spalding) rose – –

    Mr. Kinnock I must continue. If Conservative Members have any questions, please address them to the Prime Minister – although she never provides any answers.

    The Prime Minister felt that she could not say that she knew that the whole Government – [Interruption]. Perhaps I could have some order, Mr. Speaker. She knew – [Interruption]. The people watching this exhibition will pay due regard to the continual interruptions by Conservative Members. They are not making genuine inquiries; they are trying to disrupt the business of the House. Everybody will understand that. The more that I pursue the question of the Prime Minister’s motivation, the noisier they are likely to become.

    The Prime Minister knew that the whole Government had been chanting that cardinal Madrid condition, but, because their policy of high interest rates was throttling the economy, interest rates had to be cut, even though the only way to do that, without sending the pound plummeting, was simultaneously to join the ERM and desert the Madrid conditions. It was not so much a case that the lady was for turning, as a case of the lady twisting in the wind – a wind of looming recession and greatly increasing political unpopularity.

    Of course, the Prime Minister and the Chancellor tried to make the best of the mess. The Chancellor said that the prospects were good and that the market conditions and the market rate were right. He said that there was an ideal conjunction of events – precisely the right conjunction of events. I note that he has not repeated those phrases in the House today, but I am sure that he will not disown them.

    The Prime Minister was similarly fulsome. She took out the portable pulpit that she has taken to using in Downing street and announced that it was suddenly possible after all to put sterling into the ERM because of the uncontestable signs that the economy is working in the way that we intended it to. Unemployment is rising, bankruptcies this year are up by 35 per cent., industrial output is falling, inflation is still rising, the business community is warning that there is recession in several industries and recession threatens the whole economy, but the Prime Minister describes all that as uncontestable signs that the economy is working in the way that the Government intended it to”. Could there be any greater self-condemnation of the Government? Could there be any clearer admission of incompetence and failure over 11 years? The Government could not even clip 1 per cent. off the highest interest rates of all major industrialised countries without joining the ERM – 10.9 per cent. inflation and all. What a mess.

    Mr. Teddy Taylor (Southend, East) On behalf of the Labour party and a future Labour Government, the right hon. Gentleman has said that the ERM will help to bring stability. On behalf of the Labour party and future Labour Government, will he give us some idea about what he thinks the ERM will help to stabilise and roughly how he thinks that will be achieved?

    Mr. Kinnock The exchange rate. That is the whole purpose of the mechanism. If the hon. Gentleman does not have that basic piece of knowledge, I am not surprised that he takes the view that he does. I am sure that he has. [Interruption].

    Mr. Speaker Order. It will be impossible to call all those who wish to participate if the Leader of the Opposition is continually interrupted. I notice that the three hon. Members who have recently been rising all wish to speak later.

    Mr. Kinnock Inflation is vexatious when it is as high as it is and so largely the result of the Government’s policies, but the Chancellor tells us that it is not the actual rate of inflation but the prospective rate of inflation that matters. When he went to the IMF meetings in Washington at the end of September he said What matters is less the difference between headline figures which measure what has happened over the last 12 months than the prospective movements in price levels from now on. Forecasts have always been important. Obviously they are essential to economic navigation. But now it seems that they have gained unprecedented significance. Not only do they matter more than the actual rate of inflation with which people have to live, but they are important enough to justify the most momentous of economic decisions, such as entry into the ERM.

    But if the Government have such boundless confidence in forecast inflation rates, I am bound to wonder why sterling was not put into the ERM a year ago. After all, at that time in his Autumn Statement last November the Chancellor told us that the prospective rate of inflation for this quarter of 1990 – the period that we are in now – was 5.75 per cent. He was just about 100 per cent. out in his forecast. He tried to correct that in the Budget in March, seven months ago, when he said that his 5.75 per cent. forecast for this quarter of 1990 had been revised upwards to 7.25 per cent. That was only 50 per cent. out on the actual rate of inflation that we are experiencing now.

    That record hardly fills us with confidence about the Government’s judgment, especially when the Treasury had to admit yesterday: Since forecasts of the RPI were first published in 1976 only one year has seen a larger error than the forecasts for 1988 and 1989. That is not much of a crystal ball, especially as an important indicator on which to base a judgment such as the Government’s abandonment of the Madrid conditions.

    But at least one Government forecast will be right. The rate of inflation will come down. If any economy is squeezed hard enough for long enough, and this one certainly has been squeezed hard and for a long time, eventually prices will almost certainly follow demand in a downward direction. But the damage already done to the economy by the high interest rate squeeze, and the damage that will be done to the economy, has pushed Britain back, pushed costs and inflation up and weakened our productive industries in the approach to the single market. What a fine preparation for the coming of the single market at the end of 1992.

    Even if the crude recessionary slump contrived by the Government brings inflation down, it certainly will not keep inflation down. It cannot, as the Government have already proved. The Conservative party chairman’s absence today is notable – it may be because he can count his supporters in the Cabinet on the fingers of one finger – so unfortunately I speak in his absence. A few weeks ago in September he said that the Government’s interest rate strategy for bringing down inflation would work because they had done it “twice before”.

    But clearly, if the Government have used the strategy twice before and now have to use it a third time, it is not because it has worked; it is because it has failed. That must be the case. It will go on failing because, in the very act of being applied as an instrument against inflation, recession causes extra living costs, pushes up wage demands and imposes extra borrowing costs that bring bankruptcies, cancelled investment plans, instability and under-performance causing inflation to come back again, as it has.

    We have had 11 years of repeated use of those policies alternating with pre-election credit sprees, but the Government have not yet learned the error of their ways. The only response that the Government have ever made to a mistake is to repeat it and then call that being resolute. Despite his many charms, the Chancellor of the Exchequer is no exception to that rule.

    The Chancellor told us last week, and again this afternoon – it was an important point in his speech – that the only real problem afflicting Britain is excess demand. That, he said, is the single evil that causes inflation and the massive trade deficit. He says it with such charming bravura that he would convince anyone who did not know better that he had never been in a Government who had repeatedly generated excess demand for electoral purposes. Unfortunately, about the supply side the Chancellor says next to nothing.

    Mr. Jonathan Sayeed (Bristol, East) Will the right hon. Gentleman give way?

    Mr. Kinnock No, I am sorry. I have given way several times.

    I suppose that the Chancellor knows that if he did give real attention to the supply side he might have to do something more than undertake some City deregulation, some trade union legislation and give some tax handouts. If he really was interested in wanting Britain to succeed, he would do much more. If he really wanted to encourage enterprise and combat inflation, he would be doing what other ERM countries do and use more moderate interest rates in combination with credit controls instead of relying so heavily on high interest rates.

    If the Chancellor and the Government really wanted to attack the rigidities, the bottlenecks, the restraints on the productive economy, they would have followed the example of Governments of other countries in the ERM. Those Governments have ensured proper investment in modern transport. This Government have not. Those Governments have invested more in civil research and development. This Government have not. Those Governments have wisely invested more in education and training. This Government have not.

    Mr. Nicholas Bennett (Pembroke) That is not true. Look at the OECD figures.

    Mr. Kinnock I am not so interested in the OECD comparisons. Why does not the hon. Gentleman go to a school or college in Britain and see the results of under-investment?

    The whole country knows that the Government have failed to make the necessary investment. To see the results of the difference between both kinds of performance, it is only necessary to compare this country’s oil-rich economy after 11 years of Tory Government and those of other ERM countries, whatever the political colour of their national or regional government, and none of which has any oil. The difference is that the Governments of those other countries have enabled a productive economy, whereas the Government of our country have disabled a productive economy.

    Whatever our future may be in the European Community, that situation must change, so that our industries may have a fair chance under the exchange rate mechanism. Many tough, determined and enterprising people are saying still that they are not enjoying a fair chance by comparison with their competitors in other ERM countries. There is a great deal in what they say.

    It is not just a matter of the ERM, because attitudes towards the supply side must change as pressures build up within the Community to go beyond the ERM and stage 1 of the goal to which the Chancellor says that he is committed, of economic and monetary union. The Chancellor said also that movement towards a single currency is “not inexorable”, and he is absolutely right. That movement is the result of a deliberate decision by free countries. It is not a consequence of faith or of dictatorial imposition.

    If the Chancellor had said that, with the economy in its present state, monetary union was not in any case acceptable, he would also be right. Given Britain’s deficit, inflation rate, inadequate training and substandard transport systems, there is no possibility, without great change, that monetary union could be tolerated.

    The question that is increasingly posing itself is not whether monetary union is desirable to us but whether it is the ambition of others, including the strongest economies of the Community – with or without the United Kingdom.

    The plain fact is that monetary union is something to which those other member states aspire, and they are intent on achieving it – if not within the next five years, then not very long after that. That is a certain prospect. The consequence of all that is that our future will be more strongly influenced than ever not only by what we would prefer to do for ourselves but by what others prefer to do for themselves, and which they will do for themselves.

    Mr. Nicholas Budgen (Wolverhampton, South-West) rose – –

    Mr. Kinnock Just a moment.

    The European Community has not yet decided on the path to a common currency. There is much that we should and can do in this House and through government to shape the course of events. However, we are not helped much in that by the isolationism of the British Government – or at least that part of it that is controlled by the Prime Minister. Those parts of the Government that owe fealty to the deputy Prime Minister and to the Foreign Secretary are different, but I say to both Governments that, however we might try to influence events, it is imperative to ensure that the British economy is more productive and competitive, less prone to trade deficits and more resistant to inflation than it is now.

    The Government should be the ally of modern industry in a way that the present Government have never been, nor ever will be. The pre-conditions that I describe have merit at any time, but they are of extra importance now. Only by gaining those strengths can we achieve convergence with the higher performance standards of our neighbours and fellow members of the exchange rate mechanism. That effort of upward convergence represents a sensible strategy, and it is among the aims of the Labour party.

    Only by improvements in productivity will we be able really to choose between co-existing with monetary union if we choose not to join and thriving economically within currency union if we do decide to join.

    Mr. Jacques Arnold (Gravesham) Would Labour take Britain into monetary union or would it not? Will the right hon. Gentleman show some leadership?

    Mr. Kinnock When it comes to leadership, I am rather less susceptible to challenge than the Prime Minister at this precise time, so the hon. Gentleman would do well to keep his own counsel.

    Those are the facts of life that we must face. There is no refuge from them, in the blithe hope that our economy can make such a bound forward in competitive performance that Britain will suddenly be able to recapture great swathes of world markets and will thus push the European Community to the periphery of our interests as an important trading nation.

    Mr. Budgen Will the right hon. Gentleman give way now?

    Mr. Kinnock No, I will not give way, because of time constraints.

    Mr. Budgen rose – –

    Mr. Speaker Order. The hon. Member for Wolverhampton, South-West (Mr. Budgen) also has indicated that he wants to participate in the debate later. Perhaps he will get a chance to do so.

    Mr. Kinnock The hon. Member for Wolverhampton, South-West (Mr. Budgen) will acknowledge that there were a number of disorderly interruptions earlier, which took up time. I regret that, but I shall respond to the hon. Gentleman on a future occasion.

    There is no serious third way out of the stark choices that face us in the form of the Chancellor’s proposals for the so-called hard ecu. That is a clever illusionist’s trick from the right hon. Gentleman, but it is a trick nevertheless. The Chancellor claims to be against what he calls the imposition of a single currency, so he advocates a multiple currency system. He says that such an arrangement will consist of a hard ecu as a common currency, with all existing currencies used alongside it. However, he knows that the hard ecu, being almost incapable of devaluation, would render just about every other existing currency as redundant as the farthing and about as attractive as bent washers.

    The Chancellor might have bamboozled the Prime Minister with his hard ecu. He might even enjoy being patronised by others in the European Community. Nevertheless, if the hard ecu is ever adopted, the single currency that the Prime Minister so abhors would arrive not in the long term, as the Chancellor promises, but very quickly.

    Some members of the Government know that. Right hon. and hon. Members may have read in the Financial Times this morning a report quoting the Financial Secretary to the Treasury, who remarked in relation to the hard ecu: I would argue personally that the next stage of having a single currency could actually happen more quickly going down this path. I wonder whether the Prime Minister would say the same, or whether that is again a tale of two Governments.

    As there is a strong and developing consensus in several other Community countries in favour of currency union, I repeat now what I have told many colleagues in the Community and in the Commission for some years. That community of democracies should never support the creation of a so-called independent central bank. It is no more appropriate for a democratic country or a group of democratic countries to allow monetary policy to be handed over to an independent, unaccountable bank than it would be for fiscal, public expenditure and taxation policies to be given over to such a bank.

    If the Community seeks to achieve currency union between member states, then, whatever the implications for Britain, it will have to make arrangements for joint growth strategies, fiscal co-ordination and regional policies on an unprecedented scale. The regional policies would, by the very nature of currency union, require transfers between regions of the Community, just as transfers are made now between the German Lander, French departments and Italian regione, within their own national currency units. That is the dimension of the change that would need to occur if monetary union is to work to the advantage of the peoples of the Community. Even the most enthusiastic monetary unionist would recognise the truth of that.

    Our country has been taken into the exchange rate mechanism by a Government who have been in power 11 years, and who found themselves cornered by the approach of two crucial European summits and boxed in by the expectation that the Government themselves have created that entry into the ERM would occur this autumn. They were a Government trapped by the approach of the Tory party conference, which needed pleasing, and by a looming recession, resulting largely from their own policies. They are a Government who were besieged, and who are besieged, by their own political and economic errors and failures. They are a Government who sought to use a 1 per cent. interest rate cut and ERM entry as a political escape.

    They have failed in all of that. The interest rate cut is regarded with cynicism even by those people who yearn for relief from the crushing burdens of mortgage payments and business loans. The gush of City euphoria that greeted ERM entry went flat as quickly as the bubbles in the champagne that celebrated it. The Government’s decision and the Government’s timing are accurately seen as being determined by political expediency and concern for their own status and not by economic judgment made for the sake of the economy or the national welfare.

    They are a Government who have been found out and, as soon as the British people get the chance, they will be a Government who have been put out.

  • Mr Major’s Speech to the Lord Mayor’s Banquet at the Mansion House – 18 October 1990

    The text of Mr Major’s speech to the Lord Mayor’s Banquet, held at the Mansion House in London on 18 October 1990.


    CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER:

    It is now very nearly a year since I returned to the Treasury after a brief parole in the Foreign Office. I believe I am probably the only politician to have prepared the Treasury’s public spending posture for a bilateral with the Foreign Secretary; conducted that bilateral as Foreign Secretary; and announced the outcome as Chancellor. As the public expenditure round continues I must comment that such a sequence of events does have its advantages. And to be strictly fair I should add that I am glad none of my Cabinet colleagues has that advantage this year.

    From the outset it seemed likely that 1990 would be an uncomfortable year and so it has proved. Economic policy has been dominated by the struggle to get control of the inflationary pressures that were evident in the large current account deficit and, of course, in the inflation figures themselves.

    The cause of the problem was excess demand. And the remedy that we put in place was a firm monetary policy that is now clearly working.

    All the monetary aggregates now tell the same story. Annual growth of narrow money, M0,has been reduced in every month since April and is now within its target range; M4 growth has fallen steadily throughout this year to reach its lowest point since June 1987. We have seen a welcome recovery in the savings ratio from 4.9% in the third quarter of 1988 to 7.7% in the second quarter of 1990. And in the last few months, there has been a marked change also in the real indicators in the economy. Over the next few months we are likely to see a further reduction of that excess demand pressure that has been the root of higher inflation.

    Earlier this month sterling entered the Exchange Rate Mechanism. This event marks a significant development in the conduct of monetary policy. The news was greeted with rapture in some quarters, and with deepest gloom in others. Neither of these extreme reactions seems to me to be right. What entry to the ERM amounts to is an extra dimension to our monetary discipline. I have no doubt it will bring benefits for the UK. But I do not agree with those who argue that the ERM will bring those benefits in the short-term and then have long-term costs. Precisely the reverse is true. Entry will require tough action in the short-term to ensure low inflation thereafter. The disciplines of the system will force both the Government and the private sector to make difficult choices.

    For the private sector, I am thinking in particular of the control of costs including labour costs. The days have gone in which businesses could simply negotiate around the RPI and assume that a falling exchange rate would keep them competitive with their European rivals. Keeping our costs in line with, or lower than, those elsewhere in the Community is now essential.

    And it is, of course, the Directors and Managers of British companies who must ensure that they stay competitive. The Government cannot do it for them. It will be of no use businessmen bewailing the dominance of the so-called “going rate” in general while meekly accepting it as an unavoidable cost in their own firms. Within the ERM that approach will lead to only one result: lost markets, redundancies, plant closures, and ultimately company failures.

    I put the point starkly because I want to ensure that message is fully understood. It is as relevant to pay in the boardroom as it is to pay on the shop-floor.

    For the Government too, membership of the ERM will be a discipline. We have an obligation to hold sterling in its band, and it is an obligation which we will meet through the normal instruments of monetary policy. That does not mean we ignore other monetary indicators. Making a success of the ERM depends upon making a success of monetary policy. And that will require continuing attention to monetary conditions in this country. This is precisely the way other members of the ERM operate their policy.

    One of the enormous complications for the conduct of policy in the 1980s has been the inconsistency in behaviour of various monetary aggregates, very probably because of the speed of financial liberalisation. The problem is that different indicators can at the same time give completely contradictory messages. Thus it is possible to argue that in 1980 not enough attention was given to narrow money; and in 1986 that broad money should have been the focus of greater attention. One comforting development has been that for some time now, the messages coming from both broad and narrow money have been the same; possibly because the biggest effects of financial liberalisation have begun to work themselves through.

    Before we could join the ERM we needed to be sure that inflationary pressures were on the way down. As usual, there has been a lag between the peak in economic growth and the peak in inflation – indeed, on this occasion that lag has been particularly long. But – although oil prices have yet to f through fully into the headline figures – it is now clear that inflation itself is near its peak and will fall markedly over the next year. There was therefore no further reason for delay in entering the mechanism. And it was, of course, those very same conditions that indicated that a reduction in interest rates was now appropriate.

    I decided, therefore, to announce the two moves at the same time. In doing so I was influenced by the risk that a reduction in interest rates before entry into the ERM would have been misunderstood as a signal that I was seeking to weaken the exchange rate in readiness for joining – which I was not; or alternatively, that entry was a long way off – which it was not. Both interpretations might have weakened the exchange rate and damaged the prospect of entering at a central rate that would make our counter-inflationary intentions clear from the start. I took the view, therefore, that the markets should be aware of both those factors at the same time- hence the joint announcement. To be frank, I thought that was the most straightforward and sensible way to proceed, and I still do.

    We decided to enter with 6% margins to give sterling an opportunity to settle down in view of the uncertainties which necessarily attend an important market development of this kind. As circumstances permit, we will move to the narrow 2 ¼% bands.

    Returning to inflation, the indications are that this will fall throughout next year, and especially quickly from April onwards as both the underlying rate improves and some of unusual adverse factors drop out. However, notwithstanding this improved prospect, interest rates will be reduced further only when it is clearly safe to do so.

    The ERM also has implications for fiscal policy. Throughout the 1980s fiscal policy has been used to support monetary policy and it is crucial we maintain this approach in the future.

    Some commentators have suggested that interest rates are, in some sense, allocated to maintaining the exchange rates and are therefore not available to help achieve other objectives. They argue therefore that in consequence membership will require a more active fiscal policy. I have no doubt that it would be a huge mistake to return to frequent mini-budgets and fiscal fine-tuning. It is not necessary, its effects are not wholly predictable and, in my limited experience, one Autumn Statement and one Budget a year are quite sufficient! However, the overall fiscal balance will be important in the future just as, in practice, it has been in the past.

    As the economy has slowed it has become inevitable that large cyclical Budget surpluses would diminish. The boom in corporation tax collection has come to an end for the time being and, as I indicated to the Treasury Committee of the House of Commons some years ago, an economic slowdown inevitably brings renewed pressures on public expenditure, which may no longer fall as a proportion of GDP. But I do not believe we should change our medium-term objective of a balanced Budget. That would not make sense.

    To summarise, there is no doubt about the problems of 1990. I do not promise that 1991 will be easy either: we will continue to need tight monetary and fiscal policies and our commitment to the ERM will reinforce that discipline on industry and on Government. But we will, I am sure, begin to see the benefits in a substantial fall in inflation. That will be important progress. And with inflation back under control, British business will be well placed to take advantage of the enormous opportunities which our policies have created.

    I should like to turn to Europe. In recent years we have played an important and constructive role in shaping the Community. I have no doubt that we will continue to do so in the future. This is vital to the future of the City and of industry. Of course, whenever we voice doubts about a proposal emanating from Brussels, there will be those ready to call us halfhearted Europeans or accuse us of trying to disrupt the Community. Equally, whenever we will put forward positive proposals to make Europe work better, there will be those who accuse is of pre-emptive surrender. Both are wrong.

    Our record as good European is excellent. It was Britain that was instrumental in seeking a Budget deal that kept the Community viable; Britain which has helped remove the worst excesses of the CAP; and Britain which has implemented more single market measures than all but one of our Community partners. Many so-called good ‘Europeans’ are in practice very bad Europeans when it comes to opening up their markets to competition.

    Often, when we voice doubts about European initiatives, we succeed in persuading our partners that our approach is practical, realistic and “communautaire”. A case in point is the Commission’s advocacy of a withholding tax. This would have been harmful to the Community and would have damaged the City’s ability to compete worldwide. The UK has played a substantial part in devising, and bringing near to agreement, a more acceptable alternative scheme.

    I believe that an important test of Britain’s commitment to Europe is our desire to see the Community evolve together. We do not want to see it split into two tiers with an inner core speeding ahead. This would not strengthen the EC. And it could damage it gravely. It is against that background that I hope our partners will judge our proposals for the development of EMU beyond Stage 1.

    In recent months I have been encouraged by the direction that debate has taken. Increasingly the focus of attention is on the practical steps after Stage 1 as our partners in Europe recognise that the pre-requisite to further integration is convergence of economic performance. Moreover, there is an inherent absurdity in arguing about the length or date of Stage 2 before determining what should be in it.

    Our proposals for a European Monetary Fund and a hard ecu are well known. They provide an evolutionary approach based on the market and choice. They recognise that economic convergence is far from satisfactory. For the present differences between the relative performances of the twelve are striking. Annual rates of inflation in the Community range from 2.5% to 22%; short-term interest rates range from 8% to 18%; and public sector budget balances range from a surplus of 3% of GDP to a deficit of over 17%. And the degree of flexibility in the economies of member states varies considerably.

    Our proposals were heavily influenced by advice and guidance from within the City. They were also, of course, worked up in co-operation with the Bank of England. Indeed, if I may digress for a moment, I should say that one of the most agreeable aspects of the last year has been working so closely with the Governor and his team. But returning to our proposals, they were intended to advance the debate on EMU and offer a way to keep the Community moving forward together.

    As we draw nearer to the inter-governmental conference in December, we shall continue to take a practical and constructive approach. But no one should misinterpret our position. Joining the ERM did not commit us to adopting, and cannot oblige us to accept, the imposition of a single currency in Europe.

    But I have made it perfectly plain that under the UK’s proposals, the hard ecu could ultimately evolve towards a single currency if it were the wish of governments and peoples that it should be used in preference to their own national currencies. But I have also indicated that it is neither necessary nor desirable to take a decision of that kind now.

    While the debate continues we are looking for practical ways in which the existing basket ecu can be developed. In 1988, we launched the ecu Treasury Bill programme and since then LIFFE have introduced an ecu interest rate contract. Tonight I can announce some further modest moves in that direction. The Bank of England is already consulting Gilt Edged Market makers about the basis on which they can extend their dealings to cover ecu bonds as well as the sterling instruments they already trade. I welcome that. I am now giving consideration to an ecu bond issue, at the appropriate time, which would demonstrate further our attachment to the ecu and would strengthen London’s important position in this rapidly growing market. Another practical step which we shall support is the proposal that member states’ contributions to the European Development Fund should in future be denominated in ecu.

    Our commitment to Europe is also demonstrated by our support for the nations of Eastern Europe and our conviction that they too must have the opportunity to become members of the Community. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in London will be an important means of assisting market economies to emerge in those countries. And the choice – which I warmly welcome – of London as the site is a tribute to the City’s unique experience in finance and privatisation.

    In summary, My Lord Mayor, I look forward to the 1990s as the decade in which we will make further improvements in our economic performance; in which we will continue to play a leading role in creating an open and liberal Community; and in which we can look forward to London consolidating its position as the financial centre of Europe. We should aim for nothing less. And accept nothing else.