Tag: Unemployment

  • Text of the 1991 Budget – 19 March 1991

    Below is the text of the 1991 Budget, held on 19th March 1991 and presented in the House of Commons by the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Norman Lamont.


    Budget Statement

    Mr. Deputy Speaker : Before I call the Chancellor of the Exchequer, it may be for the convenience of hon. Members if I remind them that, at the end of the Chancellor’s speech, copies of the Budget resolutions will be available to hon. Members in the Vote Office.

    The Chancellor of the Exchequer (Mr. Norman Lamont) : Like, I suspect, most Chancellors, I have found the preparation of this, my first Budget, very exciting. As usual, I have read a huge amount of speculation in the press over the past few weeks about the contents of the Budget. I have also learnt a number of interesting things. For example, I was surprised to read last Wednesday that I am almost as well known as Desert Orchid – and I have not yet run in the Gold Cup. Actually, Desert Orchid and I have much in common : we are both greys; vast sums of money ride on our performance; the Opposition hope we will fall at the first fence; and we are both carrying too much weight. The crucial difference is that Chancellors are never favourites.

    I have had the advantage of serving at the Treasury under two Chancellors : my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister, who last year delivered a notable Budget for savers, and before that my right hon. Friend the Member for Blaby (Mr. Lawson). If I may make a personal observation, working for my right hon. Friend the Member for Blaby was always stimulating and exciting, and I am extremely grateful for his encouragement over the years. My admiration and respect for him remain undimmed. [Interruption.]

    Mr. Deputy Speaker : Order. I know that this is an exciting day in the House, but perhaps we should try to behave like the mother of all Parliaments.

    Mr. Lamont : I intend to carry forward my predecessor’s work. My central economic aim is to bring inflation down and keep it down. Beyond that, my objective is to encourage enterprise by creating a broadly based tax system that allows markets to do their job with the minimum of distortion and Government interference.

    Although there is no scope this year for an overall reduction in taxes, my Budget today will include measures to help business through the recession in the short term and to encourage it to invest for the longer term. It will provide assistance for families. It will also further the process of tax reform and make some radical changes in the tax system.

    As usual, I shall begin with a review of the economic situation and prospects. I shall then deal with monetary policy and public finances. Finally, I shall present my tax proposals.

    The “Financial Statement and Budget Report”, together with a number of press releases filling out the details of my proposals, will be available from the Vote Office as soon as I have sat down.

    ECONOMIC SITUATION AND PROSPECTS

    I refer first to international developments. The past year has brought recession to a number of major industrial countries including the United States, Canada and Australia. Growth in Germany has been sustained by reunification ; but elsewhere in Europe, activity has slowed and industrial production has fallen in recent months in Spain, Italy and France. In five of the seven leading industrial nations, industrial output is now lower than it was a year ago.

    The basic cause is the same everywhere : very rapid growth in the industrialised world during the 1980s led to the re-emergence of inflationary pressures. A period of slower growth was needed to stop inflation taking hold again.

    In the autumn, the slowdown was magnified by the Gulf crisis. Business and consumer confidence were badly dented, first, by the uncertainties and the sharp rise in oil prices that followed the invasion of Kuwait, and then the prospect of war. Travel and tourism were especially hard-hit.

    Mercifully, the war was brief and the outcome successful. Confidence is recovering and that will strengthen the economic upturn when the time comes ; and the fall in oil prices has already improved the outlook for inflation.

    So although 1991 as a whole will show little growth in the seven major economies – a 1 per cent. increase in industrial production compared to 5 per cent. in 1988 – the slowdown is unlikely to last long. Inflation is already moderating in those countries that are in recession, and activity should start to recover later this year in north America, helped by continued expansion in Germany and Japan. In the United Kingdom, the recession came after eight years of growth averaging 3 per cent. a year. This sustained growth bred confidence and that in turn led to a quite unprecedented rise in borrowing. Personal borrowing increased by nearly 40 per cent. in 1988 alone, to reach £54 billion – and a new record for the ratio of debt to income. This produced a sharp drop in the personal saving ratio, which coincided with a massive boom in investment by companies.

    In itself, the rise of investment – nearly 80 per cent. between 1981 and 1989 – was welcome, but the economy could not go on expanding at that rate. Some firms and individuals became over-extended and we saw a deterioration in the current account and a wholly unwelcome rise in inflation.

    It is easy, with the benefit of hindsight, to say that policy should have been tighter; and, once the problem became clear, policy was indeed tightened. We ran a large budget surplus. Interest rates were raised, and they had to stay high until there were unmistakable signs that excess demand pressure had been removed. That took longer than we – or outside commentators – expected, and the delay meant that the adjustment, when it came, was all the sharper.

    Since the middle of last year, individuals and companies have been taking steps to reduce their borrowing. Consumer spending has fallen back, and the saving ratio has risen sharply to 10.8 per cent. Firms have found it hard going. Profits have weakened, caught in the pincer of low turnover and rising costs, and the burden of debt taken on in the late 1980s has proved a heavy one.

    It is not surprising, therefore, that business investment has fallen from the heights of 1989 and early 1990. Stocks are now being reduced, and companies are making strenuous efforts to cut costs. That has led to a sharp increase in unemployment during recent months, although there are welcome signs that firms are continuing to invest in skills and training. I expect output in 1991 as a whole to be about 2 per cent. less than in 1990. Much of that fall, of course, has already happened. It is largely behind us and, as I shall be explaining in a moment, the resumption of growth should not be long delayed.

    The process of retrenchment has been painful, as it always is, but it has been necessary and is now producing results. The current account deficit has improved sharply – especially the balance on manufactures – even though world trade has been weak. Imports have fallen, while exports in some sectors, notably cars, have continued to grow strongly – testimony to the fact that industry is immeasurably better placed today than it was 10 years ago.

    No one can doubt that inflation is on the way down. There has already been a fall of 2 percentage points since the peak last October, and there is widespread agreement that the fall in inflation will continue through 1991 and into 1992.

    The prospects are now better than they appeared at the time of the autumn statement. The February survey by the Confederation of British Industry showed that the balance of firms expecting to increase prices was at its lowest level ever. The forecast published today, taking account of the effect of the Budget measures, is for inflation to fall to an average of 4 per cent. in the last quarter of this year and below 4 per cent. in the first half of 1992. The prospect, therefore, is that we will narrow the inflation gap with Europe remarkably quickly.

    In the mid-1980s, we did get inflation briefly below 4 per cent., and we saw the advantages that followed. We are about to do so again, and again we will reap the benefits. Lower inflation, and the lower interest rates that go with it, will be a powerful force for recovery.

    One of the lessons that I have learnt from years of grappling with economic statistics is that it is difficult to be certain about the past, let alone about the future. It is always especially difficult to predict the timing of turning points in the economy. However, there are good reasons to expect that the recovery will begin around the middle of this year, although initially it may be slow. As we found 10 years ago, confidence revives as inflation comes down. This time, the ending of the Gulf war will give the revival an added boost. Just as falling consumer spending contributed to the onset of recession, so returning consumer confidence is likely to lead the recovery. At the same time, the reduction of stocks is likely to slow and the United Kingdom will benefit from the upturn in the United States and elsewhere in the world.

    As a result, I expect output to stabilise in the next few months and then to increase by about 2 per cent. between the first half of this year and the first half of 1992. Looking further ahead, our projections show growth of about 3 per cent. a year as the economy recovers further.

    The easing of demand pressures has already brought a marked improvement in our current account. As the House will have noticed, there can be lags not just between policies and their effects, but between the effects in the real world and their appearance in the official statistics. As a result of the recent revisions of the figures for invisible imports and exports, the current account deficit for last year is now estimated at under £13 billion, £2 billion less than forecast at the time of last year’s Budget. This year, I expect the deficit to be halved to £6 billion, about 1 per cent. of national income.

    Regrettably, unemployment is likely to go on rising for a while yet, even after the recovery has started. How far and how fast it rises will depend, in part, on the speed with which pay settlements come down – and come down they must, eventually, to the levels prevailing in other ERM countries. There is no escape route through devaluation, and firms know this.

    Fortunately, a sharp fall in inflation is in prospect, and the reforms that we have introduced over the past decade have led to more pay flexibility. Some firms have already deferred pay settlements or agreed pay pauses. The more firms that follow their lead, the sooner we can reverse the trend in unemployment, and start creating jobs again.

    To sum up, the prospect for the year ahead is for an end to the recession, growth of about 2 per cent. in the 12 months to the first half of 1992, and inflation below 4 per cent. This does not seem to me an unpromising outlook.

    For the longer term, there is every reason to be optimistic about the United Kingdom in the 1990s. Recessions are always painful, but they are an inescapable feature of market economies – and they are temporary. Longer-term growth depends on having a thriving competitive private sector. That we now have, thanks to the reforms of the past 10 years.

    If I may confess it, I do not believe in miracles, but I do believe that the right policies, courageously and consistently applied year by year, can produce a transformation in an economy, and that is what happened in the 1980s.

    So now we can build on real achievements : a record number of new businesses, faster growth in manufacturing productivity than in any major industrialised country, and faster growth in investment than in any of those countries except Japan. These achievements have helped us over the past seven years to maintain our share of world trade, after 30 years of decline. They made the 1980s the first decade since the war when the United Kingdom grew faster than Germany and France.

    MONETARY POLICY

    There is one proviso – and it is a crucial one. We must get inflation down, and this time we must keep it down. The overriding lesson of the past few years is that the battle against inflation is never won. It is fatally easy to miss the warning signs, and hard decisions have few friends.

    The costs of even a temporary reverse are high. Squeezing out inflation means high interest rates, frustrated hopes, bankruptcies and lost jobs. But the costs of living with inflation are even higher – as those who remember the 1970s know only too well. Inflation makes our industry uncompetitive; it destroys savings; it creates uncertainty and strife; and a high rate of inflation can quickly get out of control. High rates of inflation are never stable.

    Frankly, after the experience of recent years, it surprises me how many people are urging me to let up on inflation. It may not seem much of a threat for the next six or 12 months, but I am concerned with the year after that and with the rest of the decade. The Government’s decision to join the exchange rate mechanism last October provides a more secure framework for combating inflation in the future. That is its real significance. Linking sterling to other currencies with a proven track record of low inflation will be an added discipline on monetary policy.

    We committed ourselves to that discipline after lengthy debate, and our decision was widely supported on both sides of the House, and in the country at large. The time has now come to apply ourselves wholeheartedly to the task of making our membership a success. So far, it has been. Sterling has traded comfortably within its band during a difficult period. The sterling index is much where it was just before ERM entry, and our patient approach has meant that recent reductions in interest rates have been well received by the markets. They have recognised that they are consistent with our ERM obligations, as well as fully justified by the domestic economy. Our entry into the ERM means that I have had to reassess the role of domestic indicators in guiding monetary policy. It should go without saying that interest rates will be set to honour our commitment to stay within the ERM band, but there is still a most important role for domestic monetary targets. All the major countries within the ERM take the same view.

    Over the past year, M0 – the narrow measure of money–has continued to provide timely evidence of monetary developments. Its annual rate of growth has been on a downward trend since last May. Since August, it has been within its target range of 1 to 5 per cent. For the year ahead, I propose to set a new, slightly lower target range of 0 to 4 per cent. That is consistent with my determination to exert further downward pressure on inflation. I shall also continue to watch closely other indicators of monetary conditions, especially M4 – the measure of broad money – and asset prices.

    There should be no sustained conflict between domestic monetary indicators and our ERM obligations. By far the best way of minimising the risk that conflicts will arise in the future is to build up credibility within the ERM. The policies that are necessary to defeat inflation and to sustain the exchange rate are the same.

    For the time being, I have no plans to move to a narrow ERM band. That remains, of course, our longer-term intention, but the timing of the move must depend on the progress we make in reducing inflation.

    PUBLIC FINANCE AND FISCAL POLICY

    I come now to the public sector finances.

    Over the 1980s, my predecessors transformed our public finances and made them the envy of fellow Finance Ministers throughout the world. They first reduced and then eliminated our budget deficit, and in the last three years they repaid £26 billion of debt. The ratio of public sector debt to gross domestic product has been reduced from 50 per cent. in 1979 to under 30 per cent. now, to the benefit of this and future generations.

    I am not going to fritter that legacy away. The firm control of public expenditure remains at the centre of our strategy. I will continue to aim for budget balance in the medium term. It is a simple rule, which is well understood and requires the Government to finance their spending honestly.

    Our entry into the ERM does not alter the requirement for fiscal policy to buttress monetary policy and play its part in curbing inflation; so sound public finances will remain central to our strategy for the 1990s.

    However, it is one of the more reliable laws of economics – not that there are so many – that the budget balance varies markedly over the economic cycle. When activity is growing strongly, tax revenues rise relative to income, and lower unemployment brings lower social security payments. We saw this in operation in the late 1980s when we ran large budget surpluses.

    Those forces go into reverse when the economy slows down. That is why the Budget surplus has shrunk over the past two years, and why we are now likely to see the temporary re-emergence of a public sector borrowing requirement.

    Those cyclical swings in the budget balance can play a useful role in offsetting the swings in private sector borrowing, and in stabilising the economy. They come about automatically, without the need for difficult judgments about the state of the economy. It is entirely consistent with the medium-term approach that I have already outlined to tolerate those swings in the fiscal position, but I am not persuaded of the case for going beyond that.

    In 1990-91, the Government’s finances have been affected both by the onset of the recession and by the Gulf war. However, as a result of the assistance we have received from our allies, the net effect of the war on the PSBR has not been as great as we feared. The outturn on the public expenditure planning total is expected to be a little lower than we forecast in the autumn statement. Overall, despite the war, I expect to achieve a further debt repayment this year of approaching £1 billion.

    For the year ahead, I judge that a deficit of £8 billion can fairly reflect the strength of cyclical influences. For the same reason, I think it will be right to tolerate a somewhat larger deficit in 1992-93, for it takes time for the effects of lower activity to feed through fully on to revenue. The most notable is corporation tax, which is both highly sensitive to the economic cycle and paid in arrears.

    Those deficits will disappear once output has returned to normal levels – just as the surpluses of the late 1980s did. Prudence dictates that I base my fiscal plans on a gradual recovery in output to its long-term trend. This implies a correspondingly gradual return to budget balance, but in practice the speed with which this happens will depend on the exact course of the upturn.

    To summarise : for the year ahead, I am budgeting for a PSBR of £8 billion, 1 per cent. of GDP, and I expect a somewhat larger deficit in the following year. These deficits reflect the effect of lower activity on the public finances and are fully consistent with the aim of a balanced budget over the economic cycle.

    In order to hold to this prudent fiscal stance, my Budget today will have a broadly neutral effect in the coming year, but will produce a modest increase in revenue in 1992-93.

    BUSINESS TAXATION

    I now turn to my tax proposals. In preparing this part of my speech I have been guided by great Finance Ministers of the past – first, by Gladstone, whose advice on delivering tax proposals to the House of Commons was :

    “Get up your figures thoroughly and then give them out as if the whole House was interested”.

    Secondly, I have perhaps been influenced by Colbert, the French Finance Minister, who said :

    “The art of taxation consists in so plucking the goose as to obtain the largest possible amount of feathers with the smallest possible amount of hissing”.

    In framing my tax proposals, I have also sought to address a number of the concerns which have been put to me and to carry forward the process of tax reform initiated by my predecessors. Above all, I have produced a Budget for business. I therefore begin with business taxation.

    In this country, there are 50,000 large companies paying the main rate of corporation tax, nearly 1 million other companies and 3 million unincorporated businesses, many of them very small, employing a handful of people at most. We should never forget those firms. My measures are designed to benefit businesses in each of those categories.

    I have been particularly concerned about businesses which are experiencing cash flow problems, often made worse by late-paying customers. I shall therefore be announcing measures which should give immediate help to businesses’ liquidity.

    My first proposals concern the value added tax regime. For 18 years, ever since VAT was introduced, the rule has been that businesses become liable for VAT when they send out bills, not when they are paid, so some traders end up paying VAT even though their customers never pay them. In his Budget last year, my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister introduced an entirely new system for giving traders relief on bad debts. That comes into effect on 1 April and extends relief to all bad debts which are at least two years old. Many business organisations have complained to me that that waiting period is too long. I now propose to reduce it from two years to one. This will enable businesses to claim relief next year on the bad debts that they incurred in 1990-91 and 1989-90. The new scheme will boost businesses’ cash flow next year by some £340 million. Actually, for the smallest firms, the problem of reclaiming VAT on bad debts need not arise in the first place because they can use the cash accounting scheme. That allows smaller firms to pay no VAT at all until they receive payment from their customers. Well over 100, 000 traders are already using the scheme, but we estimate that a further 300,000 could do so.

    Customs and Excise will therefore be taking steps to publicise the cash accounting scheme more widely. There is another aspect of the VAT regime which I know causes concern – the operation of the serious misdeclaration penalty, which came into effect last April. There have been widespread complaints that the automatic penalty that it imposes – 30 per cent. of the tax wrongly declared – is too severe and unfair to those who make minor mistakes.

    I accept that the penalty in its current form is an unnecessarily blunt instrument. We will therefore undertake a thorough review so that the SMP system can be reformed in the 1992 Finance Bill. I have also asked Customs to make some immediate changes to the rules, giving traders more time to put mistakes right themselves without incurring a penalty. I do not wish to pre-empt the review but, while it takes place, I am reducing the rate of penalty from 30 per cent. to 20 per cent.

    Accounting for VAT can be an onerous duty for small traders. When VAT was introduced, we exempted firms with the lowest turnovers from registration. Since then, the registration threshold has been indexed.

    European Community constraints have meant that, in the past, we have not been able to increase the threshold by more than the rate of inflation. At the end of last year, however, we pressed the case with the Commission to increase the VAT threshold. It responded very positively, and I therefore feel able to go far beyond indexation and to increase the turnover limit for registration by no less than 40 per cent. to £35,000, taking it to its highest level in real terms since the introduction of VAT in 1973. This will benefit up to 150, 000 traders. The cost of raising this threshold will be £25 million in the first year, rising to £40 million in 1993-94.

    I have two further deregulatory measures to announce, which will benefit very small businesses. At present, all employers have to pay over the pay-as-you-earn and national insurance contributions that they collect from their employees 14 days after the end of each month, but the burden of collection falls unevenly. Large firms are amply compensated for the trouble and cost of collecting the tax by the benefits of holding the money for this period, but small employers are not.

    I have a proposal that will reduce the burden on some 700,000 smaller employers. From May onwards, employers making PAYE and national insurance payments of less than £400 each month will pay quarterly, not monthly. This will reduce the administrative burden on firms and help their cash flow, at a one-off cost to the Exchequer of £210 million.

    I have one further measure to announce to help very small businesses account for tax. Last year, for the first time, businesses with a turnover below £10,000 were allowed to send the Inland Revenue a simple three-line statement instead of detailed business accounts. This is an important deregulatory measure which cuts out time-consuming paper work for up to 1 million people. From April 1992, I propose to raise the £10,000 limit, so as to allow up to million more people to benefit.

    There is a case for making a more radical simplification of the taxation of the self-employed. The Inland Revenue will shortly be publishing a consultative document containing our proposals. I am concerned that the system of income tax appeals can sometimes operate unfairly, in particular because there is no provision for the award of costs. My noble and learned Friend the Lord Chancellor and I want to deal with criticisms by the Council on Tribunals about the absence of proper rules for hearing tax appeals. We shall be publishing a consultative paper which will include proposals about the award of costs where either party has acted unreasonably. I have one proposal to limit the impact of capital gains tax on entrepreneurs and on our growing venture capital industry. I have in mind particularly those who may give up safe managerial positions to set out on the risky road of running their own business. For those people, the possibility of a large capital gains tax charge can be a deterrent. I have considered whether it would be suitable and sensible to introduce specific rules for venture capital, but I have concluded that that would be extremely difficult.

    However, one way in which we can help business men and women to reap the rewards of their efforts is to improve the relief available to them when they retire and have to realise the asset that they have created. That is why I propose to reduce the qualifying age for capital gains tax retirement relief from 60 to 55, and to raise the limits on it. From today, the first £150,000 of capital gains and half of the next £450,000 will be exempt from capital gains tax. This will be a powerful incentive to entrepreneurs to start new businesses.

    I have one other important change relating to capital gains tax on small businesses. Under existing law, only companies can offset their trading losses against their capital gains. I propose to give unincorporated businesses similar treatment. This will help small businesses if they wish to sell off assets to help themselves through a difficult period.

    In addition to the measures that I have announced for small business, I wish to propose some changes to corporation tax. In his Budget last year, my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister raised the profit limits that govern the corporation tax rates paid by smaller companies. He increased the ceiling below which single companies pay corporation tax at 25 per cent. from £150,000 to £200,000, and the upper limit above which they pay the full rate from £750,000 to £1 million.

    I propose this year to raise the limits again by a quarter. That means a total increase of 150 per cent. in three years. As a result, companies will need to be earning profits of more than £250,000 before they are liable to pay more than 25 per cent. Companies will not have to pay the full rate of corporation tax until their profits reach £1,250,000 a year. This will benefit 30,000 companies. In 1984, my right hon. Friend the Member for Blaby made a radical reform of corporation tax. In his time as Chancellor, the main rate of corporation tax was reduced in stages from 52 per cent. to 35 per cent., thus boosting companies’ post-tax profits, encouraging profitable investment at home and overseas and increasing the incentive for overseas firms to invest in Britain.

    I believe that the philosophy behind his reforms – to widen the tax base, but to reduce the rates – was the right one. It is a policy that has been welcomed by industry. It allows business men, and not Governments, to decide how much to invest and in what to invest. It set the pattern for similar reforms in many countries throughout the world and ushered in an increase in investment of 50 per cent. between 1984 and 1990.

    I propose today to take a further step in that direction. Corporation tax rates have remained unchanged at 35 per cent. since 1986, but since then the basic rate of income tax has been reduced from 30p to 25p and the top rate from 60p to 40p. I believe that the time has come to cut the main rate of corporation tax again. However, I am also aware that cutting the rate of corporation tax only helps companies that are making a profit. Many businesses that have prospered in recent years have moved into loss this year. A cut in corporation tax does not help them and nor, in some cases, do existing arrangements for the carry-back of losses.

    I am taking two measures to improve company cash flow. I am cutting by 1 per cent. to 34 per cent. the main rate of corporation tax, applied retrospectively to profits earned in the financial year 1990. This will give an immediate boost to the cash flow of companies that were profitable in the year just ending. It will benefit not only companies paying at the main rate, but the 30,000 other companies with profits between the lower and upper profits limits.

    To help profitable companies that have just moved into loss, I propose to extend the carry-back period for trading losses from one year to three. That means that more companies making losses will qualify for tax rebates in 1992-93 – valued at £250 million – which will help them to carry on through this difficult period.

    My main concern in this Budget is to encourage profitable firms to go on investing in Britain’s future. The best way in which to do that is to increase still further the post-tax return on successful investment projects. For that reason, I am cutting the main rate of corporation tax on profits earned in the 1991 financial year by two percentage points, to 33 per cent.

    The two reductions in the main rate, from 35 to 33 per cent, will together cost £380 million in 1991-92 and £830 million in 1992-93. They will give us the lowest rate among our major competitors – lower than that of the United States, and the lowest in the European Community.

    SUPPLY SIDE

    The 1980s were years of remarkable progress in our economy, but even more striking was the change in attitudes. The crucial importance of the market is now widely accepted in this country, and even more widely accepted in the House. There is a much greater acknowledgement of the fact that market forces and competition play a vital part in shaping our economy. That remarkable change in ideas and attitudes is the lasting legacy and achievement of my right hon. Friend the Member for Finchley (Mrs. Thatcher).

    My right hon. Friend recognised that the key to a better performance by the economy in the long term lay in improving the supply side; and, over the past decade, that has been the aim of our tax policy, trade union and labour market reform, our competition policy, deregulation and privatisation. But, if the United Kingdom economy is to perform to its full potential, we still need a more flexible labour market and a better-skilled work force. I have a number of further measures to announce to that end.

    If wages are inflexible, the burden of recession falls disproportionately on jobs : it is the only way for employers to cut costs. There is a considerable prize if we can get pay to take some of the strain. In 1987, we introduced a new tax relief to get profit-related pay off the ground. There are now about 1,250 such schemes in total, involving nearly 300,000 employees; but there can and should be many more, so I propose to make the scheme more attractive.

    At present, half an employee’s profit-related pay is tax-free. From 1 April, PRP will be free of all tax up to the present limits. It is worth up to a full £1,000 to a basic-rate taxpayer. For some, that could be worth as much as 6p off the income tax rate.

    There is another way in which employees can and should enjoy a stake in the companies for which they work – through becoming shareholders in them. Employee share schemes have made a great deal of progress over the past 10 years. By the end of March last year, 2 million employees had benefited from shares or options worth more than £6.5 billion. Too often, however, employee share schemes have been directed solely at highly paid company executives. I believe strongly that valuable benefits of this kind should be extended to the whole work force.

    I have given serious consideration to limiting executive share schemes solely to companies with all-employee schemes in place, but I have instead decided to rely on the carrot rather than the stick. From January next year, the price of shares under executive options may be set at a modest discount of up to 15 per cent. of the shares’ market value if – but only if – the company has an all-employee share scheme.

    I also propose to increase substantially the limits on individual participation in approved all-employee share schemes, and to allow companies tax relief on the costs that they incur in setting up approved employee share schemes and statutory employee share ownership plans.

    Another aspect of the supply side that needs improvement is training. A well-trained labour force is an important element in any firm’s success. Employers know that and are acting on it. The 1990 labour force survey shows an 85 per cent. increase in the number of employees receiving job-related training since 1984. Despite the recession, the last CBI trends survey reported that over 75 per cent. of employers expected to spend at least as much on training in the next 12 months as they had last year and 29 per cent. expected to spend even more.

    However, more and more individuals are also choosing to take responsibility for their own training. Employers can get relief on the training they provide as a normal business expense, yet at present the tax system generally gives no relief to an individual who decides to pay for training to improve his or her skills. That cannot be right. If we want a better trained, more flexible work force, we should encourage people who want to help themselves. I propose to do just that. I am introducing a tax relief for the fees paid by an individual for training towards most national vocational qualifications and their Scottish equivalents. From April 1992, basic rate tax will be deducted automatically from the fees for qualifying courses, so non-taxpayers will benefit as well as taxpayers. Among those who stand to gain are women wishing to get back to work after having children.

    OTHER BUSINESS MEASURES

    Many hon. Members have pressed the case for helping two specific industries this year : shipping and films. While I sympathise with their aims, I have to say that there is a limit to the extent to which we can – or should – bend the tax regime to meet the special needs of any particular industry.

    The Gulf hostilities have reminded us of the important contribution which our Merchant Navy can make to our defence. I recognise that there is a strategic case for measures to encourage shipping companies to draw their crews from seamen in the United Kingdom, who would be willing and able to serve in time of war. Towards this end, I propose a further relaxation of the rules giving tax relief to seafarers working mainly overseas. This will mean that more seafarers will be exempt from United Kingdom tax on their overseas earnings. The film industry makes an important contribution to entertainment and culture in this country. The industry has put forward a number of proposals, but having studied these carefully, I am afraid I cannot accept them. However, I remain sympathetic, and if it has any alternative proposals that it wishes to put to me over the coming year, I will very happily consider them.

    I know that the tax treatment of foreign exchange gains and losses causes difficulties for many businesses. This is one of the most complex and intractable areas of the tax code. Our 1989 consultative document elicited a valuable response but no consensus on the way forward. I am publishing today a further document setting out my specific proposals for reform, which I trust will bring greater rationality to this very important and complex area of the tax system.

    I have also to correct one defect in the law affecting building societies. In a recent judgment, the House of Lords concluded that regulations covering the 1986 composite rate transitional provisions for building societies were technically invalid. If I were to take no action about this, there would be a windfall gain to building societies – not their depositors – of £250 million, distributed arbitrarily according to their accounting dates in 1985-86. I have therefore decided to include legislation in the Finance Bill to establish, as the Government and Parliament intended, that interest and dividends paid by societies in these transitional periods may be taxed at 1985-86 rates.

    TRUSTS

    I turn now to trusts. In 1988, as Financial Secretary, I announced a review of their tax treatment. Today, I am publishing a consultative document on possible changes to the income tax and capital gains tax regime of United Kingdom resident trusts. My proposals include an alternative structure of tax rates, which would bring the treatment of trusts more into line with the treatment of individuals. They would also help to streamline the administration of trusts, saving work for trustees and their advisers.

    We have also been reviewing the tax treatment of non-resident trusts. This raises an important issue of principle. In recent years, the use of non-resident trusts as a means of avoiding capital gains tax has increased. I do not think that it is right for a relatively small number of wealthy people to shift very large assets into offshore trusts simply in order to avoid United Kingdom tax. Such people have already benefited from the reductions in the higher rate of income tax. I therefore propose to introduce measures to counter this tax avoidance and to prevent a revenue loss of up to £100 million in a full year.

    CHARITIES

    I turn now to charities. While people’s real incomes have risen by over a third since 1979, charitable giving has more than doubled, partly as a result of the measures taken by my predecessors to encourage more giving. Tax reliefs for charities are now worth at least £800 million a year. Today I have some modest improvements to announce to the tax regime for charities.

    I have two measures that should boost giving by businesses. The first is a new relief from income and corporation tax to encourage business gifts of equipment to schools and to other educational establishments.

    The second concerns the gift aid scheme introduced last year. This allows companies and individuals to get tax relief on cash donations to charities up to a limit of £5 million a year, under the gift aid scheme. Company groups have found that the division of this upper limit between them prevents them from donating as much as they would like. To overcome this problem, I propose to abolish the limit altogether from today. In recent years, there has been a remarkable increase in corporate donations to charities. I hope that this further measure will encourage companies to give even more.

    I also propose to adjust some existing VAT reliefs for charities and to ease the conditions for the relief from car tax for vehicles leased to disabled people.

    SPORT AND THE ARTS

    I now come to a proposal to benefit both sport and the arts. Last year, my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister reduced pool betting duty, on the condition that the benefit was passed to the Football Trust. Following the success of that measure, a proposal has been put to me by one of the pools promoters for a new foundation for both sport and the arts.

    League football benefited from last year’s Budget measure, and racing benefits from the horse racing betting levy. This new foundation is intended to provide assistance to other sports and to the arts. It will be financed by contributions collected by the pools promoters along with the weekly pools betting stakes, and should raise some £40 million a year.

    On the understanding that all the main pools companies agree to participate and that the full amount would be passed on to a new trust established on satisfactory terms, I would be willing to reduce pool betting duty a final time – from 40 per cent. to 37 per cent. These arrangements would be subject to a review in four years’ time. They should make a further £20 million a year available – giving £60 million a year in total – to the foundation in order to support both sport and the arts.

    EXCISE DUTIES

    I now come to excise duties. First, I propose to raise the duties on alcoholic drinks to maintain their real value. That means that the duties will rise from 6 o’clock tonight by 9.3 per cent. – in line with the increase in the retail prices index in the year to December 1990. That will put about 2p on a pint of beer, 9p on a bottle of wine and around 56p on a bottle of spirits.

    I will also be legislating to change the basis on which beer is taxed. The existing system of taxing the so-called “worts” was introduced by my predecessor, Mr. Gladstone. It will now be replaced by one in which the end product, the beer itself, is taxed. The new system will relate the duty more closely to the alcoholic strength of the beer – with a higher tax levied on strong lagers than on low alcohol beers.

    I propose increasing all tobacco duties by 15 per cent. – well above the rate of inflation. This will add about 16p to the price of a packet of 20 king size cigarettes, and, I regret to say, around 8p to a packet of small cigars.

    There are strong health arguments for a big duty increase on tobacco. In recent years, the duty has fallen in real terms, and cigarette consumption, having declined in the early 1980s, has since begun to turn up again. Raising the duty will help to counter this unwelcome trend.

    The motor car imposes large costs on others in the form of pollution and congestion. I have decided therefore to increase the duties on petrol and DERV by 15 per cent, giving the private motorist a strong incentive to choose more fuel-efficient vehicles, and ensuring that those who pollute most, pay most. This is fully in line with the policy set out last year in the Government’s White Paper on the environment.

    A litre of leaded petrol will rise by nearly 4p, a litre of unleaded by about 3p and a litre of diesel by just over 3p. The tax differential between leaded and unleaded will increase, giving a further boost to the take-up of unleaded. I propose to freeze vehicle excise duty for private cars and light vehicles at £100, for the sixth year running, and also to freeze VED for all heavy goods vehicles.

    BENEFITS IN KIND

    Many motorists do not own their own cars but drive those provided by their employers. The scales for taxing the private use of company cars have been substantially increased in recent Budgets, but many employers continue to pay their employees in cars rather than in money. I propose to increase the car scales again this year by 20 per cent. This increase will yield £190 million in 1991-92 and £250 million in 1992-93.

    If people are paid in kind, there is no reason why they should be taxed more lightly than people paid in cash, yet our present system also gives employers an incentive to provide employees with cars rather than cash. Under our present arrangements, they avoid making any contribution to the national insurance fund on the benefit that the employee receives from private use of a car.

    I propose that company cars and fuel should now become liable for national insurance contributions, assessed according to the scale charges used for taxation. My right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Social Security will introduce a Bill to that end. Employers will pay at the main rate, but there will be no change for employees.

    Employers’ national insurance contributions on cars and fuel will yield an extra £610 million a year of contributions. This will reduce an anomaly in the national insurance contributions system, making it more neutral between different kinds of payment, and will widen the national insurance contributions base.

    These new arrangements will take effect from April, but contributions will be collected annually in arrears, so employers will not be asked to pay their first contribution until June 1992. They are already familiar with the scale charges used for the tax so they should be able to make the necessary calculations with the minimum of extra work. They are already familiar with the scale charges.

    I turn now to what I regard as one of the greatest scourges of modern life. I refer to the mobile telephone. I propose to bring the benefit of car phones into income tax and to simplify the tax treatment of mobile phones by introducing a standard charge on the private use of such phones provided by an employer. Tax will be paid of £200 for each phone for 1991-92. I hope that, as a result of this measure, restaurants will be quieter and the roads will be safer.

    SAVING

    I have already drawn attention to the imbalance between savings and investment and its effects in the late 1980s. As companies found more and more opportunities to invest, we needed more savings; but instead, the saving ratio fell. In successive Budgets, my predecessors introduced new tax incentives to save. Many forms of saving now enjoy a highly privileged tax position.

    Last year in particular, my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister announced a new scheme, the tax-exempt special savings account. TESSA has proved a spectacular success since it arrived on the savings scene nearly three months ago, and has encouraged the savings habit among ordinary taxpayers. Already, over 1.5 million people have opened accounts.

    My right hon. Friend also announced in his Budget last year the abolition of composite rate tax. From 6 April, non-taxpayers will no longer have to pay tax on their accounts with banks and building societies. These are far-reaching reforms, which need time to settle down and take effect, so this is not the year to disturb the regime that we have just put in place, or to risk causing confusion with further schemes. My main concern has been to consolidate the system that we already have, although I have some modest changes to announce.

    I propose to raise the capital gains annual exempt amount to £5,500 and the inheritance tax threshold to £140,000 this year in line with inflation.

    National Savings continue to play an important role, particularly for small savers. This summer, I propose to introduce a new National Savings children’s bond for children under 16. There will also be a new issue of fixed-interest savings certificates, with a maximum investment of £5,000 compared with £1,000 on the last issue. Other changes to National Savings products will be set out in a press release issued today.

    I am also removing the restrictions on friendly societies writing tax-exempt life insurance policies for children, and increasing the limit on premiums for their tax-exempt policies generally from £150 to £200.

    Personal equity plans remain an important means of promoting direct share ownership. Since their introduction in 1987, about 1.2 million PEPs have been taken out, and over £3 billion has been invested. I have some further changes to announce.

    First, I intend to allow investment in European Community, as well as United Kingdom, shares both for individuals and for unit and investment trusts. Second, to promote the development of single-company PEPs, I propose to allow investors to put up to £3,000 a year in a single- company PEP, as well as up to £6,000 a year, as now, in a general plan. This will allow total investments of £9,000 a year.

    While single-company PEPs are available to any investor, I believe that they provide a natural home for shares acquired under employee share schemes. I therefore propose to allow shares acquired under approved all-employee share schemes to be transferred directly into the company PEP, with no charge to capital gains tax.

    Employee share schemes and PEPs have encouraged individuals to become shareholders, but many people have bought their first shares in big offers, mainly privatisations. The first of these to catch the public’s imagination was British Telecom. The Government currently still own some 48 per cent. of the shares, and I can announce today that I intend to sell part of this holding in the coming year.

    Privatisations have been a great success. The next step is to encourage people to invest in shares more generally. One problem is that, to the small investor, the stock market can seem remote, intimidating and somewhat expensive. The development of a genuine retail market for shares in high streets up and down the country would be highly desirable.

    To give this the boost it deserves, the Government are considering a change in the way in which they market privatisations. For future large flotations, I am today inviting proposals from the private sector for arrangements to distribute shares directly to the public through high street retail networks.

    I hope that there will be proposals both from financial institutions – banks or building societies – and from companies outside the financial sector. If satisfactory proposals can be developed in time, I will consider using such a high-street network in the sale of British Telecom shares.

    Such a high street network could be used for primary issues, not only by the Government but by private sector companies and, in the longer term, it could provide a cheap and accessible way for individuals to buy and sell in the secondary market.

    MORTGAGE INTEREST RELIEF

    The measures that I have just announced will encourage people to save, but there is another side to the story, for the fall in the saving ratio at the end of the 1980s was a result not of a fall in gross savings so much as an increase in borrowing, particularly mortgage borrowing.

    In part, that reflected the remarkable increase in home ownership over the last decade. That has been, and remains, a key objective of policy for the Government. A less desirable development, however, was the dramatic boom in house prices during the late 1980s, which fuelled borrowing and helped boost inflation. Many first-time buyers found prices rising much faster than their incomes. We need to do all we can to ensure that, when recovery comes, it is not accompanied by another bout of house price inflation, with the unwelcome consequences that that would have for inflation and interest rates. I propose to leave the ceiling for mortgage interest relief unchanged at £30,000, but from 6 April 1991 I propose that relief should be allowed only at the basic rate. That will yield £220 million in 1991-92 on the basis of current interest rates, and £420 million in 1992-93.

    I recognise that some people have arranged their affairs on the assumption that higher rate relief will continue. Therefore, to reduce the amount of extra tax they have to pay, I propose to increase the starting point for higher rate tax from £20,700 to £23,700, £1,000 more than required to match inflation. That will keep the number of higher rate payers broadly stable and mean that a married man will not become liable to higher rate tax until his earnings rise to nearly £29,000.

    My objective is to reduce the tax subsidy to borrowing without significantly increasing the average tax burden on higher rate taxpayers. Taking those changes with the changes to the personal allowances that I am about to announce, the typical increase in liability for a higher rate taxpayer with a £30,000 mortgage will be only around £1 a week. Of course, the main determinant of the cost of a mortgage is not tax relief, but interest rates. For a higher rate taxpayer with a £50,000 mortgage, the fall in the typical mortgage rate that has already taken place since last autumn fully offsets the change that I am making to mortgage interest relief.

    INCOME TAXES

    I now come to income tax. Income tax is never welcome, but paying tax unexpectedly is even less so. That is the position facing employees who were working in Kuwait and Iraq at the time the Gulf crisis began. They may now become liable to pay United Kingdom tax on their foreign earnings which they had expected to be exempt. I propose that employees who had intended to work in Kuwait or Iraq for a year or more but were forced to return home earlier by the crisis should not be taxed on their foreign earnings.

    I have no changes to make to either the basic rate or the higher rate of income tax. Our objective remains to move towards a basic rate of 20p, but I cannot make further progress towards it this year. Our priority must be to reduce taxes on business.

    I propose this year to uprate the personal allowance in line with inflation. It will rise by £290 to £3,295. The personal allowance for the over-65s will increase by £350 to £4,020, and for those aged 75 and over by £360 to £4,180. The married couple’s allowances for the elderly will also be increased in line with inflation, from £2,145 and £2,185 to £2,355 and £2,395. The income limit for the allowances for the elderly will increase by £1,200 to £13,500.

    However, I am not proposing to increase the married couple’s allowance for couples under 65 or the allowances that are linked to it. They will stay at £1,720.

    I know that there is a widespread view in the House and in the country that more should be done to help families with children. I propose to use the resources released by not increasing the married couple’s allowance for that purpose.

    There are some, I know, who advocate the reintroduction of child tax allowances. I have looked at that option carefully, but I am clear – especially following the introduction of independent taxation – that it would not be an effective way of channelling resources to those who need them. A better way of directing help straight into the pockets of mothers, whether they choose to work or not, is child benefit. It goes to all families – to the children of non-taxpayers as well as the children of taxpayers.

    I therefore propose to increase child benefit from 7 October by £1 a week for the first eligible child in each family, and by 25p a week for other children. These rises come on top of the increase announced by my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Social Security last autumn, which will be paid from 8 April. This means that, in October this year, a benefit of £9.25 a week will be payable for the first child, and £7.50 for each subsequent child.

    We will ensure that the increases benefit not only taxpayers but the very poorest families – those on income support and family credit. These increases will help 6.8 million families, and 12.3 million children. I should add that the Government have decided that the new levels of child benefit will be uprated in line with inflation next April and in subsequent years.

    CENTRAL AND LOCAL TAXATION

    The measures that I have announced today maintain a responsible fiscal policy, while giving help to industry and families. They also include some important reforms to the tax system. However, my Budget would not be complete if it did not address one other issue, which has attracted a certain amount of attention recently.

    My right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for the Environment will be announcing very soon the conclusions of our review of local government. I do not propose to anticipate his statement, but there is one announcement I want to make today.

    In January, we announced a £1 billion package to reduce the community charge for more than half of all charge payers. Since then, I have been considering whether the impact of local expenditure on the local taxpayer is too great for any system of local taxation to bear.

    I have concluded that local taxes are being asked to bear too large a burden, and that the level of the community charge is still too high. However, if local taxes are to fall, and if the standard of local services is to be maintained, taxes elsewhere must rise. I propose, therefore, to make a substantial switch from local taxation to central taxation. This will amount to about £4 billion in the coming financial year – 1991-92 – and will reduce the net yield of local taxation to about £7 billion. This large reduction in local taxation will take it to a level that the Government believe should be sustainable in the longer term.

    We shall introduce a Bill in the next few days to authorise payments of extra grant to local authorities, and to ensure that community charge payers will reap the full benefit in reduced charges in the coming year – 1991-92. The money will not be available to increase local authority spending. Domestic rate bills in Northern Ireland will be reduced as well.

    The Bill will also ensure that charge payers do not have to start paying their charges until the new and lower charges have been introduced. Later today, my right hon. Friend the Lord President of the Council will make a statement about the arrangements for the Bill. The switch requires a substantial increase in central taxation. I have decided that this should be achieved by raising indirect taxes – that is to say, taxes on spending.

    I am proposing, therefore, from 1 April to increase the standard rate of value added tax by two and a half percentage points to 17 per cent. VAT is a broadly based tax which falls on consumers rather than producers. Since much consumer spending is zero-rated, it bears less heavily on poorer households than on the better-off, so raising VAT is not only an efficient but also a fair way to raise the necessary finance; and raising taxes on spending rather than taxes on income will be better for savings, and consistent with our strategy for tax reform, first set down by my right hon. and learned Friend the Member for Surrey, East (Sir G. Howe) in his 1979 Budget. Raising VAT will increase some prices, but the reduction in the community charge will more than offset that effect, so the switch will actually reduce the retail prices index. As a result of these changes, the community charges recently announced in England, Wales and Scotland will be cut by £140. On average, the headline charge will be reduced from about £390 to about £250 in both England and Scotland, and from about £260 to about £120 in Wales, while the amounts people actually have to pay, after allowing for relief and benefits, will fall to under £175 in Great Britain. The charge in Shetland will fall to under £1.

    PERORATION

    The measures I have announced are designed to meet the three main requirements of any Budget. First, they represent sound finance, and contribute to a firm counter-inflationary policy. My predecessors transformed public finances in the 1980s; my proposals will keep us on track to balance the budget over the 1990s. Secondly, they respond to the economic needs of the moment. I have cut taxes on business, both this year and next, to help it to weather the recession and take advantage of the upturn later in the year. Thirdly, they continue the reform of the tax system to improve the working of the economy in the longer term. In addition, in a year when resources are tight, I have been able to give additional help to families with children. Finally, I have made a decisive reduction in the burden of local taxation across the country, and cut community charges in the coming year by £140.

    This Budget is good for business, good for families, good for charge payers and good for the country. I commend it to the House.

  • PMQT – 14 March 1991

    Below is the text of Prime Minister’s Question Time from 14th March 1991.


    PRIME MINISTER

     

    Engagements

    Q1. Mr. Alan W. Williams : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 14 March.

    The Prime Minister (Mr. John Major) : This morning I presided at a meeting of the Cabinet and had meetings with ministerial colleagues and others. In addition to my duties in the House, I shall be having further meetings later today.

    Mr. Williams : Does the Prime Minister recall saying not so long ago that the poll tax system would be fairer, more acceptable and prove to be enduring? Does he think that he is still clear in his own mind about that?

    The Prime Minister : The hon. Gentleman will be a good deal clearer in his mind about the future of the community charge before very long. It is particularly surprising that, some months after the Labour party produced its own roof tax, it is still unable to answer even the most obvious questions about it.

    Mr. Ian Bruce : My right hon. Friend, in paying tribute to the forces in the Gulf, has very often referred to the training that those people had received. Will he assure the House that, in the “Options for Change” review, while we may change where the training is carried out or the number of people being trained, we will certainly ensure that the quality of training, such as that provided in Portland, is not diminished?

    The Prime Minister : The quality and nature of training is clearly very important. Whatever may happen as we consider “Options for Change” in future, that will not change.

    Mr. Kinnock : Does the Prime Minister think that the Ministers who have been responsible for spending £10 billion of taxpayers’ money on the utterly discredited poll tax system should now do the honourable thing and resign?

    The Prime Minister : Shadow Ministers responsible for a scheme that they would foist on the country should explain how it would work. The right hon. Gentleman cannot even tell us, months after his scheme was introduced, what the levels would be in his constituency.

    Mr. Kinnock : The Government have spent and are continuing to spend vast sums on trying to sustain the poll tax system–including the £400 million to set it up, the £300 million a year on trying to maintain it and the £6 billion in an attempt to sweeten it. Does not the Prime Minister agree that any company or public body responsible for spending so much money so wilfully would have the people responsible on their way to gaol, and rightly so?

    The Prime Minister : Perhaps the people leading the queue to gaol should be those Labour local authorities which waste more money than anyone else in the country and whose average community charge is £78 higher than that of Conservative authorities.

    Mr. Ward : When my right hon. Friend considers with his colleagues the lessons of the Gulf war, will he bear in mind the need for amphibious capability and in particular the need for amphibious craft for the Royal Marines and such services?

    The Prime Minister : In the aftermath of the Gulf war, we shall need to consider a number of matters to ensure that our armed forces are up to date and relevant. I shall bear in mind what my hon. Friend says.

     

    Q2. Mr. Cryer : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 14 March.

    The Prime Minister : I refer the hon. Gentleman to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Cryer : While the Prime Minister tries to control the warring factions in the Tory party over the poll tax, will he bear in mind the fact that he could bring immediate relief to the millions of people who are groaning under this vicious poll tax–especially those who have been thrown on the dole queue by his economic policies–by restoring Government grants to local authorities to their 1978-79 level under Labour? At the same time, he would get rid of the political corruption that gives an extra £64 a head to Tory-controlled Wandsworth, while low-paid areas like Bradford are left without.

    The Prime Minister : The hon. Gentleman is on shaky ground if he wants to discuss local government, given the attitude of Labour local authorities. If he really wants to see how money is wasted and badly handled, he should go to Lambeth.

    Mr. Brazier : Does my right hon. Friend agree that, under the principle of accountability, it is long overdue that we should introduce into the House a Question Time for the Leader of the Opposition, so that we could ask what his policies are?

    Mr. Speaker : Order. I think that that is a matter for the Select Committee on Procedure.

     

    Q3. Mr. Wigley : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 14 March.

    The Prime Minister : I refer the hon. Gentleman to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Wigley : Is the Prime Minister aware that the people of Wales want not only an early end to the poll tax, but something done about the iniquitous level of water charges? Since privatisation, there has been a 45 per cent. increase in Welsh Water charges, and the average bill of £195 compares to £137 in Severn-Trent, which gets its water from Wales? When will he start an inquiry into the monopoly profiteering in the water industry?

    The Prime Minister : The hon. Gentleman is right to say that charges have risen sharply under Welsh Water–[ Hon. Members :– “It is absurd profiteering.”] It is not absurd profiteering but the unprecedented £1.8 billion investment programme which is necessary to improve water and sewerage and bring them up to a standard that the people of Wales would wish to have.

     

    Q4. Mr. Amess : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 14 March.

    The Prime Minister : I refer my hon. Friend to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Amess : Is my right hon. Friend aware of the “buy British goods from Basildon” campaign that was introduced recently by myself and our local European Member of Parliament, Patricia Rawlings? Does my right hon. Friend agree that such local initiatives can make a useful contribution to reducing the trade deficit? Socialist Opposition Members should follow our lead in backing rather than bashing Britain.

    The Prime Minister : My hon. Friend, as ever, is very inventive, and I am grateful to him for drawing that campaign to my attention. The key to reducing the trade gap is for British industry to produce goods that people want to buy at competitive prices, which is increasingly the aim of British industry. Many British companies already do just that, and I hope that more people will buy British. It is time that the Opposition supported British companies and stopped knocking Britain whenever they can.

     

    Q5. Mr. Ernie Ross : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 14 March.

    The Prime Minister : I refer the hon. Gentleman to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Ross : Has the Prime Minister had a chance to study the proposal that Prime Minister Mulroney made for some form of arms control initiative? Before the Prime Minister’s meeting with President Bush in Bermuda on Sunday, will he immediately impose a moratorium on arms sales, particularly to the middle east? Will he assure President Bush that the whole country would support an immediate control on the sale and export of arms?

    The Prime Minister : We have to look at the export of chemical, nuclear and biological weapons, in particular to the middle east. I expect that we shall take up that matter at the United Nations and elsewhere.

     

    Q6. Dr. Twinn : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 14 March.

    The Prime Minister : I refer my hon. Friend to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Dr. Twinn : Is my right hon. Friend aware that the London borough of Haringey has set a community charge £171 higher than neighbouring Conservative Enfield? Does he share the sense of joy of 20,000 of my constituents and of my hon. Friend the Member for Enfield, Southgate (Mr. Portillo), who heard yesterday that the local Boundary Commission will not transfer four wards into Haringey? Will he join my hon. Friend and me in congratulating our constituents who fought hard with us to stop the daft idea?

    The Prime Minister : I am unsurprised to hear from my hon. Friend about the level of charge in Haringey. It is, after all, a Labour authority. Perhaps, if Haringey gets a Conservative authority, it will, as in so many other places, get a far lower charge.

     

    Q7. Mr. Fearn : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 14 March.

    The Prime Minister : I refer the hon. Gentleman to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Fearn : Is the Prime Minister aware that the figures for housing waiting lists are now at a crisis level, especially in the north-west? Will he institute a crash building programme in local government which would help local government, the people in need and, indeed, the construction industry, which is on its knees?

    The Prime Minister : The hon. Gentleman will know of the estate action programme and the dramatic increase in the funding to many housing associations. I fear that a significant part of the problem is the large number of local authority dwellings that remain unlet with no apparent effort to let them.

    Mr. Sims : Is my right hon. Friend aware that, at a time when pressure had to be gently exerted on certain Governments to make a financial contribution to the costs of the Gulf operation, the Government and people of Hong Kong made a donation of £15 million? Will he take this opportunity to express the appreciation of the Government and the House of that gesture?

    The Prime Minister : I am certainly grateful for that contribution. I expressed my thanks to the Governor of Hong Kong and the Executive Council some weeks ago.

     

    Q8. Mr. Winnick : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 14 March.

    The Prime Minister : I refer the hon. Gentleman to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Winnick : Which is likely to come first, a substantial fall in unemployment–the figures for which have risen yet again and which the policies pursued when the Prime Minister was Chancellor of the Exchequer helped to create–or the ending of the poll tax, which he justified at every opportunity?

    The Prime Minister : As the hon. Gentleman knows, unemployment rose to 7 per cent. across the United Kingdom in the figures announced today. That is high. It is still well below the European average. It is well below France, at 9 per cent., Italy, at 9.9 per cent., Canada, at 9.3 per cent., Spain, at 15.8 per cent. and Ireland, at 14.8 per cent. If Government policies alone determine the level of unemployment, our record is infinitely better than that of any of those countries.

     

    Q9. Mr. Speller : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 14 March.

    The Prime Minister : I refer my hon. Friend to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Speller : Has the Prime Minister had any confirmation that poison gas has been used in Iraq in the past few days? What steps is he taking to see that the capacity for chemical and nuclear warfare is destroyed and that that destruction is permanent?

    The Prime Minister : I have no evidence that poison gas has been used, but that is one matter which we shall wish to discuss with our allies in the weeks ahead.

    Mr. Hardy : Would the Prime Minister care to compare his Government’s treatment of the city of Westminster and of the metropolitan borough of Rotherham? Is he aware that Government support per head to Westminster will be 470-odd per cent. higher than that given to Rotherham? Is he aware that if we had had the same treatment, far from charging a low poll tax, our local authority would be giving everyone at least £250 next year?

    The Prime Minister : As the hon. Gentleman knows, the level of support is a good deal higher in inner London boroughs generally, although, as he will know, there is a sharp difference in the level of community charge even between adjacent London boroughs such as Lambeth and Wandsworth.

    Rev. Ian Paisley : Has the Prime Minister been made aware of the statement by Jacques Delors in the European Parliament this week, that the Prime Minister had said that the United Kingdom had substantially changed its position on monetary union? Can he confirm whether this is so, or can he tell us what this change is?

    The Prime Minister : I can confirm that that is not so. I also confirm that I had the opportunity of telling Mr. Delors that over dinner earlier this week.

    Dr. Reid : Is the Prime Minister aware that, in about an hour and a half, the Select Committee on Trade and Industry will publish its report on British Steel’s closure of the Ravenscraig hot strip mill and Clydesdale? Anyone who listened to the information given to that Committee cannot doubt that the report will be a damning indictment of British Steel’s industrial relations policy. Does he recall telling me about three months ago, in a meeting that he was kind enough to have with me, that, should the worst come to Lanarkshire, he would not stand idly by? Since then, another 3,000 workers have been told that they will have to stand idly by, having been made redundant. Can he now tell the people of Lanarkshire what he intends to do, or does he find the same difficulty in making up his mind on that issue as he does on the poll tax?

    The Prime Minister : The hon. Gentleman knows precisely what we propose to do. If he racks his brains, he will recall that I told him when we met some time ago. I made it clear to him at our meeting that the Lanarkshire working group had been established now to identify what measures might be needed at some future stage if the mill were to close. That remains the case, as the hon. Gentleman has known for some time.

  • PMQT – 14 February 1991

    Below is the text of Prime Minister’s Question Time from 14th February 1991.


    PRIME MINISTER

     

    Engagements

    Q1. Sir Hal Miller : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 14 February.

    The Prime Minister (Mr. John Major) : This morning I presided at a meeting of the Cabinet and had meetings with ministerial colleagues and others.

    Sir Hal Miller : Does my right hon. Friend agree that reductions in interest rates following a fall in inflation will sharpen the already competitive position of our motor industry which increased exports last year by 18 per cent? Are not rising exports, rising investment and increased skill levels proof positive that we are achieving what Labour claims to want, and that we should stick with our policies, rather than cut and run?

    The Prime Minister : I can scarcely disagree with my hon. Friend. The motor industry has a very impressive export record, which is a tribute to good design, increasing competitiveness and the increasing work rate of employees in the industry.

    Mr. Kinnock : Will the Prime Minister take this opportunity to explain to the 110,000 people who lost their jobs in the course of the last month that they did so as a direct result of his incompetent economic policy?

    The Prime Minister : It is interesting that during the 40 months in which unemployment fell, month after month after month, the right hon. Gentleman made no mention of this matter. I regret the rise in unemployment, but the right hon. Gentleman will have to concede that the level of unemployment in this country, at 6.6 per cent., is not only well below the European Community average but very well below the average levels of most of our European partners.

    Mr. Kinnock : Today’s figures show the biggest January rise in unemployment since 1981–the time of the last Tory slump. When the Conservatives have done this twice in a decade–regardless of who has been the leader, or who the Chancellor–is it any wonder that they will always be known as the party of unemployment?

    The Prime Minister : The right hon. Gentleman may find it difficult to explain the following unemployment rates : 9 per cent. in France, 9.9 per cent. in Italy, 9.3 per cent. in Canada, and 6.6 per cent. here. He may also have overlooked the fact that there has been a considerable rise in the number of job vacancies.

    Mr. Kinnock : Perhaps the Prime Minister–who is the Prime Minister of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, not of France–will explain why, if Tory policies are to work, hundreds of thousands of people have to stop working.

    The Prime Minister : The right hon. Gentleman’s track record on such predictions is simply not good. He will recall predicting that mass unemployment of 6 million was inevitable. It was not, and his predictions now are wrong.

    Sir Anthony Grant : When my right hon. Friend reflects today on the position in the Gulf, will he consider that a dictator like Saddam Hussein, who has been unscrupulous enough to murder his own people over several years, will probably have no scruples about allowing innocent people to suffer in a bombing raid for propaganda purposes? Does my right hon. Friend agree that the tragic event in Baghdad and the sad loss of life should not mean that a single allied soldier should be put at risk by a premature land assault?

    The Prime Minister : As my hon. Friend knows, we shall consider very carefully when it is right to launch a land assault. The position in that regard remains as I have described to the House in the past. Everyone regrets the death of civilians, particularly in the tragic circumstances of the past few hours. But the United States has explained why it attacked that particular site : it did so on the basis of an assessment that showed that it was a legitimate military target, which played a part in the Iraqi war effort.

    Mr. Ashdown : Does the Prime Minister agree that, in considering the lessons of the terrible tragedy that took place in Baghdad last night, we should not forget that Saddam Hussein has, not through inadvertence, but through acts of deliberate policy, killed more Muslims than any other living person? Does he also agree that, as the terrible toll of the war rises, so should our determination to build a just and durable peace to follow it?

    Will the Prime Minister answer the question that I fear he dodged last week and say whether he is prepared to give the United Nations, in whose name we are fighting the war, the lead role in building the peace that follows?

    The Prime Minister : I agree with the observations that the right hon. Gentleman made at the outset of his question. To avoid doubt, I shall repeat the point that the allies are not targeting civilians, unlike Saddam Hussein, who continues to fire missiles wholly indiscriminately at built-up population centres. On the subject of the United Nations, clearly we must consider with all our colleagues in the allied forces, particularly the Arab states upon and around whose lands the conflict is taking place, how to proceed at the end of the conflict.

    Mr. Dykes : Will my right hon. Friend accept the congratulations of the House on his successful visit to Germany on Monday? If he will forgive the pun, far from being a “brugeing” experience, it was a successful visit, both bilaterally and in terms of the resuscitation of European solidarity?

    The Prime Minister : I am grateful to my hon. Friend. It is important to ensure that we play a leading part in the centre of the Community, which means that we have the closest possible bilateral contact with all our European partners.

     

    Q2. Mr. Nellist : To ask the Prime Minister if the will list his official engagements for Thursday 14 February.

    The Prime Minister : I refer the hon. Gentleman to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Nellist : Was yesterday’s massacre of women and children in Amiriya a good example, under the 1977 Geneva protocol, of precision targeting of the right or wrong target? Was not the burning and lasceration of those children’s bodies, to correctly use a military euphemism, the degrading of nobody in Baghdad but of those in whose name that slaughter took place?

    The Prime Minister : The hon. Gentleman puts the matter with his customary bad taste and inaccuracy. As I explained a moment ago, there has been precision bombing, and that site was bombed because there was legitimate reason to believe that it was a military target.

     

    Q3. Mr. David Nicholson : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 14 February.

    The Prime Minister : I refer my hon. Friend to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. David Nicholson : My right hon. Friend will be aware of the concern at the advertising and the unsolicited temptations to borrow pursued by banks and other lenders in recent years, for which many businesses and many individuals are now paying a painful price. As interest rates come down, will my right hon. Friend use his influence as Prime Minister, as former Chancellor and as a former banker to impress on the banking industry the need for responsible lending–and will he consider what role the Government might play in that?

    The Prime Minister : I have done as my hon. Friend suggests. My views on this subject are well known. I am very glad to see that the banks and building societies are addressing the issue of the marketing and provision of credit. As the banks have freely acknowledged, the code that they have covers only banks and building societies. That is why, in December, my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Trade and Industry issued a consultative document proposing a number of specific changes to tighten the law on consumer credit. These measures will have a wider field of application than just banks and building societies.

     

    Q4. Ms. Armstrong : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 14 February.

    The Prime Minister : I refer the hon. Lady to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Ms. Armstrong : Did the Prime Minister notice the figures published yesterday that show that the top 20 local education authorities providing nursery education are Labour, and the bottom 20 are Tory? Given the abysmal performance of Tory authorities, when the Secretary of State for Education and Science two weeks ago abandoned any commitment to the expansion of nursery education, did he have the Prime Minister’s approval?

    The Prime Minister : The hon. Lady should look at the whole provision of education services throughout the country, and if she is looking at lists of the top and the bottom authorities she should also look at the authorities with the highest community charges.

     

    Q5. Mr. Robert G. Hughes : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 14 February.

    The Prime Minister : I refer my hon. Friend to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Hughes : Will my right hon. Friend take time today to send a message of congratulations to the voluntary bodies and statutory agencies that have worked so hard during the past few days to provide shelter for the homeless in London? Will he note the comments of the deputy director of Shelter, who said the other day that the arrangements made were magnificent and excellent?

    The Prime Minister : I am happy to join my hon. Friend in congratulating all those involved–particularly the voluntary organisations that have co-operated so willingly with my hon. Friend the Minister for Housing and Planning. As a result of that swift response there should be no need for anyone to sleep rough on the streets of London during this period of extreme bad weather.

     

    Q6. Mr. Foulkes : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 14 February.

    The Prime Minister : I refer the hon. Gentleman to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Foulkes : What is the Prime Minister going to do now that John Yates, the highly respected NHS management consultant appointed by the Government to advise on reducing waiting lists, has resigned, describing the Government’s policy, of spending £100 million to find out that waiting lists have increased, as a total waste of money? Would not it be better to sack the Secretary of State for Health and keep Mr. Yates?

    The Prime Minister : As it happens, my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Health invited Mr. Yates to see him to discuss the reduction in waiting lists. Mr. Yates refused.

     

    Q7. Mr. Hague : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 14 February.

    The Prime Minister : I refer my hon. Friend to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Hague : Will my right hon. Friend take time today to reflect on the successful expansion of higher education under this Administration? Are not the one in five school leavers going into further and higher education, compared with the miserable one in eight when Labour was in power, a crucial part of building a better trained and educated workforce? Are not this Government providing the resources for that?

    The Prime Minister : Indeed they are. My hon. Friend is right and I entirely agree with his remarks about the importance of higher education– both universities and polytechnics–and the role that they are playing in trying to equip our young people for a better start in life.

    Mr. Andrew Welsh : Is the Prime Minister truly aware of the crisis facing agriculture, with farm incomes at their lowest in real terms since the second world war and record numbers leaving the industry? Why then is the Ministry of Defence supplying Argentine and Uruguayan beef to British forces in the Gulf when British cold stores are jam packed with intervention beef, subsidised and paid for by British taxpayers? Will the right hon. Gentleman assist taxpayers, the armed forces and agriculture by sorting that out?

    The Prime Minister : It is because of such absurdities that we are keen to see a proper reform of the common agricultural policy. My right hon. Friend the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food has made it clear that that is a top priority for us and we shall seek to negotiate it with our colleagues in Europe.

     

    Q8. Mr. Riddick : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 14 February.

    The Prime Minister : I refer my hon. Friend to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Riddick : Does my right hon. Friend agree that today’s problems of homelessness have been caused, first, by the way in which the private rented sector has been regulated almost out of existence and, secondly, by the incompetence of many local authorities, mainly Labour controlled, which have more than 100,000 vacant council houses up and down the country? [Interruption.] Will my right hon. Friend take this opportunity to confirm that the Government will take the necessary radical action to free and deregulate the private rented sector in order to bring many hundreds of thousands of empty flats and rooms back on to the market?

    The Prime Minister : Nothing could better have illustrated the Opposition’s hostility to the private rented sector than their activities while my hon. Friend asked his question. It was absurd that the private rented sector was declining and properties were left empty because of rent control. We have introduced to the subsidy arrangements all sorts of incentives to encourage local authorities to bring properties into use. We continue to examine further ways to stimulate the private sector.

     

    Q9. Mr. David Marshall : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 14 February.

    The Prime Minister : I refer the hon. Gentleman to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Marshall : What does the Prime Minister have to say to the record number of 40,000 home owners who had their homes repossessed during the past 12 months as a result of his high interest rates policy? What advice does he give those people?

    The Prime Minister : All repossessions are a tragedy for those who are involved. The hon. Gentleman should bear it in mind that repossessions account for less than one fifth of 1 per cent. of home owners and that the overwhelming majority of those are as a result of marriage breakdown.

  • PMQT – 13 December 1990

    The text of Prime Minister’s Question Time from 13th December 1990.


    PRIME MINISTER:

     

    Engagements

    Q1. Mr. Maclennan : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 13 December.

    The Prime Minister (Mr. John Major) : This morning I presided at a meeting of the Cabinet and had meetings with ministerial colleagues and others. After my duties in the House, I shall be leaving for the European Council in Rome.

    Mr. Maclennan : Will the Prime Minister find time to give another impetus to his ideal of a classless society, in which public power is not abused, by responding to the growing movement for constitutional reform? In the spirit of the times, will he institute cross-party talks on a Bill of Rights, decentralised government and a fair voting system?

    The Prime Minister : As I have made clear to the hon. Gentleman and as he will know from what I have said in recent weeks, my vision of a classless society deals with increased opportunity and choice. I have no immediate proposals for constitutional change.

    Mr. Luce : As protectionism would do much to undermine the economies of the world and to increase unemployment, will my right hon. Friend take a positive lead this weekend in the European summit to persuade the Community to adopt a less protectionist stance with regard to agriculture, with a view to unblocking the GATT negotiations?

    The Prime Minister : I shall be arguing for a positive statement from the European Council, which will make absolutely clear the Community’s determination to make a success of the GATT negotiations. They are extremely important and the cost if they fail, to us and to many other countries, is very great.

    Mr. Kinnock : Will the right hon. Gentleman take this opportunity to confirm that the large rises in unemployment are a direct and deliberate result of his policies?

    The Prime Minister : Everyone regrets the rise in unemployment, but, as the right hon. Gentleman knows, I have been warning for some months that if wage rises stay high, they will have a necessary effect on jobs.

    Mr. Kinnock : Does not it strike the right hon. Gentleman as somewhat dishonest that, whenever unemployment goes down, it is evidence of the Government’s success ; but whenever it goes up, it is evidence of somebody else’s failure? Why is not the right hon. Gentleman man enough to own up properly to the reasons for the rise in unemployment and to accept the blame for his own policies? As he knows the economic and human cost of unemployment, what is he going to do now to stop unemployment rising still further?

    The Prime Minister : Upon the right hon. Gentleman’s own premise, he knows precisely the success that the Government have had. If he looks across the whole Community, he will see that our rate of unemployment is among the lowest in the Community, at 6.2 per cent. Long-term unemployment is still falling and the extent to which the economy has been revived can also be seen in the fact that 50 per cent. of those who have just lost their jobs will be back in work within three months.

    Mr. Kinnock : This is the second time in a decade that the Government have brought severe recession and rising unemployment to this country. Will the Prime Minister now answer the question? What does he intend to do to stop unemployment rising further?

    The Prime Minister : As the right hon. Gentleman knows, we have a higher percentage of our work force in work than almost any other country in Europe. If the right hon. Gentleman is so worried about unemployment, why does he support a national minimum wage, which would cost three quarters of a million jobs?

    Sir Peter Tapsell : May I put it to my right hon. Friend that when he leaves for Rome later this afternoon, he will carry with him the exceptional good wishes of the British people, who have been greatly impressed by his decisions and his bearing since he became Prime Minister?

    The Prime Minister : I am most grateful to my hon. Friend. I shall certainly endeavour to ensure at the European Council not only that we protect British interests but that we consider the interests of Europe as a whole.

     

    Q2. Mr. Pike : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 13 December.

    The Prime Minister : I refer the hon. Gentleman to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Pike : Does not the Prime Minister recognise that Christmas for many of my constituents and many hundreds of thousands of people throughout Britain will be marred by having to make appearances in court because of their inability to pay their poll tax? When will the Government recognise that making promises–or alleged promises–to do something in two years’ time is not acceptable? Will he do something to remove the requirement on the lowest-paid people to pay 20 per cent. of the poll tax and increase the level of income at which some rebate can be paid to those who cannot afford to pay their poll tax?

    The Prime Minister : As the hon. Gentleman will know, a large number of people are eligible for substantial rebates. The hon. Gentleman would make a good start by persuading some of his hon. Friends to pay their community charge.

     

    Q3. Mr. Gill : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 13 December.

    The Prime Minister : I refer my hon. Friend to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Gill : When my right hon. Friend goes to Rome this weekend, will he bear it in mind that, in the final analysis, the British Government must go whichever way gives British agriculture and industry the best prospects of creating wealth for the people who live in these islands? Will he tell our European partners that wealth creation through free trade remains our top priority?

    The Prime Minister : I shall be happy to carry that message to all members of the Community. I very much agree with my hon. Friend. A great deal of the growing prosperity in recent years has clearly been the result of the steady removal of barriers to trade. We wish that to continue.

    Mr. Boateng : Last weekend in London the severe weather shelters were kept closed because it was not “cold enough”. In the Prime Minister’s classless, caring, opportunity society, how cold does it have to be and for how long before the homeless are given the opportunity of shelter and warmth?

    The Prime Minister : In view of the hon. Gentleman’s remarks, he may be interested to know that my hon. Friend the Minister for Housing and Planning will announce within the next few days a substantial number of new bed spaces in hostels and long-term housing in central London. [Interruption.] Opposition Members may not like this, but it is directly related to the point that the hon. Gentleman made. My hon. Friend the Minister for Housing and Planning is talking to front-line agencies and together they are developing new and more effective ways of getting rough sleepers off the streets. I should have thought that Opposition Members would wish to hear that and support it.

     

    Q4. Mr. Moate : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 13 December.

    The Prime Minister : I refer my hon. Friend to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Moate : With regard to the Gulf crisis, will my right hon. Friend reaffirm today that any partial withdrawal by Iraq from Kuwait would be wholly unacceptable and that Saddam Hussein must be required to comply in full with all the requirements of the United Nations resolutions?

    The Prime Minister : I am happy to confirm absolutely what my hon. Friend says. Partial withdrawal simply will not do. Iraq needs to comply fully with all the provisions of the UN Security Council resolutions. That means total and unconditional withdrawal. The United Nations has made it clear that the use of military force will be justifiable if Saddam Hussein has not met the requirements of the resolutions in full by 15 January.

    Mr. Canavan : Does the Prime Minister agree that it is absolutely diabolical in this day and age for a 20-year-old, unemployed person to be sent to prison for failing to pay the poll tax? Would he care to reflect on the fact that if everybody touched the forelock and obediently stumped up the poll tax, herself would still be in 10 Downing Street, Tarzan would still be languishing on the Back Benches and the poll tax would be under no immediate threat whatever?

    The Prime Minister : As the hon. Gentleman knows, we are examining the whole question of the community charge and in due course we shall make a statement.

     

    Q5. Mr. Sumberg : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 13 December.

    The Prime Minister : I refer my hon. Friend to the answer that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Sumberg : Will my right hon. Friend take time today to reflect on two significant, but contrasting parliamentary achievements that have recently occurred : first, that he is now the youngest serving Prime Minister of this country this century, and, secondly that his opposite number is the longest-serving Opposition leader in parliamentary history?

    The Prime Minister : I shall no doubt grow older in the job and no doubt so will the right hon. Gentleman.

     

    Q6. Mr. Andrew F. Bennett : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 13 December.

    The Prime Minister : I refer the hon. Gentleman to the answer that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Bennett : Does the Prime Minister agree that when he answered my question on Polaris last Thursday, he was unhappy with his answer? Will he confirm that, having had more time to look into the problems associated with Polaris, he must be even more unhappy? Is he confident that Polaris will go on being an effective deterrent for the next four years and can be kept safely at sea? Would not this be a good time to scrap it and put forward proposals for getting rid of our nuclear seaborne deterrent as part of the negotiations in the spring?

    The Prime Minister : The nuclear deterrent has served this country extremely well in the past few years and I have no plans to change that policy.

    Mr. Peter Robinson : Was the Prime Minister encouraged, as I was, by the reports of the Dail Eireann debate yesterday, which showed growing support for amendments to articles 2 and 3 of the Republic’s constitution? As those two articles claim jurisdiction over a part of the United Kingdom’s territory, will the Prime Minister encourage that process?

    The Prime Minister : I certainly propose to study carefully what was said yesterday.

     

    Q7. Mr. John D. Taylor : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 13 December.

    The Prime Minister : I refer the right hon. Gentleman to the answer that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Taylor : On this our first opportunity, may I on behalf of my right hon. and hon. Friends in the Ulster Unionist parliamentary party congratulate the right hon. Gentleman on his appointment as Prime Minister? Recently, he will have recognised that it is necessary to create confidence and trust in Northern Ireland to have political progress. Is he aware of the unease and alarm created by the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland three weeks ago when he said that the British Government had

    “no strategic, or economic interest in Northern Ireland”? Will he, therefore, prove that he is the leader of the Conservative and Unionist party, not just the Conservative party, and support and strengthen the union between Great Britain and Northern Ireland?

    The Prime Minister : The right hon. Gentleman will know that the troops are in Northern Ireland both because that is the wish of the people of Northern Ireland and to ensure the security of the people of Northern Ireland. That is and remains the position. It is generally accepted throughout Northern Ireland the my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland is one of the best friends that the Province has had for a long time.

     

    Q8. Mr. Amess : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 13 December.

    The Prime Minister : I refer my hon. Friend to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Amess : Is the Prime Minister aware that when he spoke recently about a classless society, he struck a chord with many of my constituents in Basildon? Does he recall that when he visited our town some time ago, he recognised that it had a fine community spirit, despite local socialists who try to cause class divisions by their support of Militant Tendency and the like? Does he agree that it is only the policies of the Conservative party that allow people to get ahead and that Opposition policies cause division and hold people back?

    The Prime Minister : I entirely agree with my hon. Friend. It always has been that way. The Conservative party is determined to increase choice and opportunity and, unlike Opposition Members, we shall not put barriers in the way of such opportunity and choice.

     

    Q9. Mr. Win Griffiths : To ask the Prime Minister if he will list his official engagements for Thursday 13 December.

    The Prime Minister : I refer the hon. Gentleman to the reply that I gave some moments ago.

    Mr. Griffiths : Would the Prime Minister like to reflect upon the fact that the appalling unemployment figures announced today will be further augmented next month, not least by my constituents who are employed by a company called Euroshape, who had redundancy offered to them this week without any hope of pay? That company once employed 300 people, but what hope can the right hon. Gentleman offer them following his announcement on 27 October last year, when he said that the harsh truth was that if the policy was not hurting, it was not working? Will that message apply this year and next Christmas as well?

    The Prime Minister : As the policy self-evidently is working, we shall first see a considerable reduction in inflation in the next few months. Following that reduction we shall return to a period of growth. I remind the hon. Gentleman that, in the past 10 years, our growth record has exceeded that of any other European country.

  • Mr Major’s Commons Autumn Statement Speech – 8 November 1990

    The text of Mr Major’s 1990 Autumn Statement Speech to the House of Commons on 8th November 1990.


    CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER:

    The Chancellor of the Exchequer (Mr. John Major) With permission, Mr. Speaker, I should like to make a statement.

    The Cabinet agreed the Government’s expenditure plans this morning. I am, therefore, now able to inform the House of the public expenditure outturn for this year; the plans for the next three years; our proposals for national insurance contributions in 1991–92; and the forecast of economic prospects for 1991 required by the Industry Act 1975.

    As usual, the main public expenditure figures, together with the full text of the economic forecast, will be available from the Vote Office as soon as I sit down. The printed “Autumn Statement” will be published next Tuesday.

    In this survey we have had to take some tough decisions in the interests of the economy and the new plans represent a very tight settlement. But it is a settlement which is fully consistent with the Government’s commitments and channels extra resources to the areas where the need is greatest. For this, and other reasons, I should like to pay tribute to my right hon. Friend the Chief Secretary for the skill and persistence with which he has brought the survey to a successful conclusion.

    Since 1984–85, while the economy has grown by nearly 20 per cent., total public spending has risen scarcely at all in real terms. As a result, the ratio of public expenditure to national income has fallen by more than seven percentage points, the largest sustained fall for 40 years. Moreover, in the past three years large budget surpluses have enabled us to repay debt totalling £26 billion.

    Mr. Dennis Skinner (Bolsover) Not any more.

    Mr. Major We shall add to that this year.

    The main objective of economic policy at present must be to bring inflation down, but, as we do so, the short-term prospect is bound to be one of weak activity. [Interruption.] In the past, during similar periods the ratio of public spending to national income has risen strongly. On this occasion it will not.

    Planned public expenditure in the current fiscal year is now expected to be £180.6 billion, rather less than 1 per cent. above the planning total set a year ago. A large part of this extra spending is due to an increase in the financing requirements of the nationalised industries, to a surge of common agricultural policy spending on agricultural market support and to expenditure on the Gulf crisis.

    Notwithstanding this cash overrun, public expenditure remains under tight control. Inflation has been higher than forecast, but it has not been allowed to feed through fully into expenditure. As a result, the ratio of spending to national income in the current year is likely to be slightly lower than projected at the time of the Budget – virtually unchanged from the 1989–90 level.

    The decisions on public expenditure for the next three years have been taken against a more difficult world and domestic economic background than for some time. Activity at home and abroad has begun to weaken and some countries such as Canada and the United States are expected to grow very slowly indeed over the coming year. The outlook has also been complicated by events in the Gulf, with the rise in oil prices and the uncertainty that they have produced. Against that background, our new plans are designed to protect the most vulnerable groups in society against the effects of higher inflation [Interruption.] I repeat, to protect the most vulnerable groups in society and to maintain longer-term policies to improve the working of the economy.

    Mr. Robert N. Wareing (Liverpool, West Derby) rose–

    Mr. Major I shall of course give way to the hon. Gentleman when we come to questions a little later.

    But, beyond that, this is not the year for making substantial additions to plans in other areas. The priority must be to honour existing commitments, within a total for public spending that is affordable and fiscally prudent. For 1991–92, the new planning total has been set at £200 billion, a little under £8 billion more than the previously published figure. The planning totals in the following two years are £215 billion and £226 billion respectively.

    In recognition of the economic uncertainties and the risks arising from the Gulf crisis, these totals include higher reserves than last year’s plans: £3½ billion in the first year; £7 billion in the second year; and £10½ billion in the third. I believe that these increases are prudent. Our plans also incorporate an estimate of privatisation proceeds at £5½ billion a year that is in line with the average outturn in recent years.

    After taking account of inflation, the level of spending next year will be rather less than implied by last year’s plans: that is, the cash additions to the planning total do not fully compensate for the higher level of prices now expected for 1991–92. This restraint is necessary, but it means that many of my colleagues have had to drop or postpone proposals that they would otherwise have regarded as desirable.

    Nevertheless, within this total there are substantial extra resources in three main areas: health, social security and central Government support for local authority services. These additions to plans total some £7½ billion in 1991–92. It has also been possible to make improvements to other key areas including education, public transport, and the environment.

    We have also been able to make savings elsewhere, including defence. I can assure the House categorically that financial constraints will not hinder in any way the United Kingdom’s military contribution to resolving the Gulf crisis. However, the “Options for Change” announced by my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Defence on 25 July will produce increasing savings in the defence budget. Over the next three years the new plans provide for a real reduction in defence spending of about 6 per cent., and further reductions should be achieved in later years as my right hon. Friend’s proposals are fully implemented. For the first time in the period since World War 2, we are now able safely to plan on a defence budget that is significantly less than one tenth of all Government expenditure and falling.

    In certain other areas, we have been able to accommodate increases in expenditure by finding offsetting savings. For example, on the trade and industry and employment programmes we have made selective increases while keeping broadly to existing plans overall, and within the Home Office programme, lower prison population forecasts have enabled us to reduce the prison building programme, while considerable resources have been made available for the refurbishment of existing prisons, including Strangeways.

    In July, the Government announced extra support for local authority current spending which will add around £2½ billion to previous plans. Current spending by local authorities has substantially outstripped central Government spending over recent years. This year local authorities in England budgeted for increases of over 5 per cent. in real terms before capping. This has led to community charges which in many authorities are far higher than expected or justified.

    The additional support that we are providing for next year should enable local authorities to finance local services without sharp increases in their charges. My right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for the Environment has already announced that, if required, the Government will make vigorous use of their powers to cap high-spending authorities. I re-emphasise that.

    Nearly £3 billion has been added to the social security plans for next year. This mainly reflects the upratings already announced by my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Social Security which maintain in full the real value of benefits paid to 10 million pensioners and 11 million people on income-related benefits. The additions also reflect the substantial extra cost of community charge benefit which will help about one in four charge payers. My right hon. Friend was also able to announce selective increases for poorer pensioners, people in residential and nursing homes and families. These improvements will be financed within the social security programme by savings from restructuring the statutory sick pay scheme, as announced by my right hon. Friend on 24 October.

    As in previous years, the Government have also made very substantial extra provision for health. Between this year and next, spending on the national health service in the United Kingdom will rise by £3 billion, so that the real resources over and above inflation that are available for spending on health will increase by a further 5 per cent. The total real increase in health service spending since 1979 will now be nearly 50 per cent. This has enabled the NHS to employ some 8,000 more hospital doctors and dentists, and over 50,000 more nurses and, of course, to provide for more sophisticated health care than ever before. As a result, more than 1½ million more in-patient and day cases are now treated every year. In the largest sustained programme of hospital building ever seen, nearly 500 major capital schemes have been completed since 1979. The plans that I am announcing ensure that the next three years will see further improvements in services.

    Extra finance is also being provided for public transport. London Transport and British Rail have large long-term investment programmes which will enable them to extend and to upgrade the London underground and to prepare for the opening of the channel tunnel. Between them, they will spend some £¾ billion on safety alone in the next three years. The new plans also consolidate the substantial extra provision for roads that was announced last year and include measures to relieve congestion in London. Investment in public transport in the next three years will be double the level of the past three years.

    Central Government spending on education will be increased by more than £500 million next year, largely to finance the record number of students in higher education. One in five of the 18 to 19 age group will be in higher education, compared with one in eight only a decade ago. The number of higher education qualifications gained, as a proportion of the relevant age group, is higher in the United Kingdom than in Germany, France, Italy and almost every other European country.

    Following the publication of the White Paper on the environment, the new plans provide significant extra resources for environmental research and in support of environmental bodies such as the National Rivers Authority and the Countryside Commission. There is extra provision also for the Government’s programme of action on rooflessness.

    Throughout the past decade, we have sustained a high level of capital spending in the public sector. In total, it will approach £30 billion in the current year. Leaving aside defence, our new plans include an extra £1½ billion a year for investment by central Government and nationalised industries. There is also extra support for local authorities’ capital spending on schools, housing and local transport.

    Taking capital and current together, real growth in total public spending over the three survey years will be less than 2 per cent. a year – well within the trend growth of the economy. As I have said, this is a tight settlement and it means that the ratio of public spending to national income should remain stable at its present level for the next two years. Thereafter, as activity strengthens and inflation remains in check, the downward trend will be resumed.

    I now turn to national insurance contributions. As usual, the review this autumn has taken account of advice from the Government Actuary on the income and expenditure of the national insurance fund, and of the statement on benefits that was made by my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Social Security on 24 October.

    The lower earnings limit at which contributions begin will go up next April to £52 a week, in line with the single person’s basic pension, while the upper earnings limit will rise to £390 a week. The upper limits for the reduced employers’ rates will also be increased.

    In addition to those changes, there will be reductions in the contribution rates paid by employers. As my right hon. Friend explained in the House on 24 October, the restructuring of statutory sick pay will add modestly to employers’ costs from next April. It is right that the Exchequer should share these costs. Therefore, the main employers’ contribution rate will fall next April from 10.45 per cent. to 10.4 per cent. and each of the lower rates will be cut by 0.4 per cent. This relief through contributions will limit the impact of the statutory sick pay adjustments on employers of lower-paid workers in particular. The necessary legislation will be laid before the House. The contribution rates paid by employees and the class 4 rates paid by the self-employed will remain unchanged.

    I am publishing today the economic forecast required by the Industry Act 1975, the first since we became members of the exchange rate mechanism. I must emphasise at the outset that the Gulf crisis and its effect on world oil markets make the future unusually difficult to predict. The United Kingdom, along with other countries, has already seen some of the adverse impact on consumer price inflation. The oil price rise is likely also to contribute to the general slowdown in the world economy that was already under way before the Gulf crisis.

    For the Industry Act forecast I am following the practice of international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and assuming some fall in oil prices from recent levels to around $25 a barrel by the end of 1991. But I must reiterate that the situation in the oil market remains very volatile.

    Despite these uncertainties, however, it is now clear that the tight United Kingdom policy stance of the past two years is bringing about an easing of domestic inflationary pressures. This will make possible both a sharp fall in retail prices index inflation next year and a strengthening of output.

    So far this year, the public sector debt repayment has been running below both last year’s outturn and our expectations at Budget time. Local authority borrowing was particularly high earlier this year as some authorities experienced delays in collecting non-domestic rates and the community charge. Public corporations’ finances have been adversely affected by the slowdown in economic activity and central Government spending has also been higher. Nevertheless, despite this, I still expect a significant debt repayment in the year as a whole of £3 billion. This amounts to ½ per cent. of GDP and represents a strong fiscal stance at this stage of the economic cycle.

    Mr. Skinner What was the right hon. Gentleman’s forecast?

    Mr. Major For the benefit of the hon. Member for Bolsover (Mr. Skinner), we have a stronger fiscal position than Germany, France, the United States and every other member of the Group of Seven, with the solitary exception of Japan.

    Thus our public finances remain strong. Given our membership of the exchange rate mechanism and the counter-inflationary strategy that we are pursuing, it is essential that they remain strong. As I made clear to the House last month, the Government remain committed to the medium-term objective of a balanced budget. That is why we have continued our firm restraint of public expenditure in the current year.

    Turning to demand and output, it is clear that growth has now slowed down sharply. GDP is forecast to grow by 1 per cent. this year. This figure is the same as the forecast I made at the time of the Budget, but the path has been slightly different, and I expect output in the second half of the year to be down on the higher than expected and projected level in the first half.

    This period of weak activity should last until early next year, after which I expect growth to resume; GDP is expected to grow by over 2 per cent. in 1991, though year-on-year growth is forecast to be only ½ per cent.

    Unemployment has been rising since the spring and may continue to rise in the months immediately ahead, but job prospects will improve with a resumption of growth, the more so if employers keep tight control of costs, including pay rises.

    Within domestic demand, growth of consumer spending has now slowed markedly from over 7 per cent. two years ago to under 3 per cent. in the first half of this year. The signs are that it will fall further over the year ahead as consumers continue to adjust to lower growth of real incomes, following the high borrowing of recent years.

    Business investment rose by an unprecedented 45 per cent. in the three years to 1989, taking investment to an historically high level as a share of GDP. It may have fallen slightly in 1990 and is expected to fall a little further next year. A modest downturn from such a high level is unsurprising; indeed, it would be extraordinary if it did not occur at this stage in the cycle. It will still leave investment over 50 per cent. higher in real terms than in 1979.

    The current account has now begun to improve markedly. With low growth of domestic demand, import volumes have shown virtually no growth over the past year and import prices have been falling in recent months as a result of the firm exchange rate. Export growth, on the other hand, has remained strong over the past year so that the United Kingdom’s share of world trade in manufactures has risen for the second year running. The deficit on visible trade has followed a welcome trend and has virtually halved since the middle of 1989. This progress has been partly offset by poor figures for invisibles in recent quarters, although in the past these have, more often than not, been revised up later – at times, substantially.

    I now expect that the current account deficit in 1990 will remain close to the forecast I made at the time of the Budget – at just over £15 billion. With domestic demand and import growth likely to stay low, I expect a considerably improved performance next year, with the deficit falling to £11 billion despite some slowdown in export growth as world trade decelerates. As a proportion of gross domestic product the deficit is expected to fall from 3¾ per cent. last year to 1¾ per cent. in 1991 – a sharp improvement.

    I am now certain that inflationary pressures have been brought firmly under control. The monetary indicators show this clearly. The growth of MO has fallen every month since April and is now considerably within its target range, while growth of the wider measure, M4, and lending have fallen sharply to 14½ per cent. and 15½ per cent. respectively. With demand and output slowing markedly over the past two years, it is clear that inflation will come down next year. The fall in the headline figure will be very sharp as the effects of the past mortgage rate rises, of the high initial level of the community charge and of recent petrol price increases cease to influence the inflation rate by the end of next year. From a peak at the current level of about 11 per cent., I expect RPI inflation to fall to around 5½ per cent. in the fourth quarter of next year.

    In summary, the plans that I have announced today honour our existing commitments and provide additional resources for key areas – notably for the health service, for pensioners and for investment. They are within an overall total we can afford and they avoid the sharp upturn in the share of expenditure in national output which has occurred at similar stages in previous economic cycles. They are, therefore, consistent with the tight fiscal and monetary policies that will lead to a falling trade deficit and to a sharp reduction in inflation. They are, in my judgment, the right policies for building on the economic achievements of the past decade and I commend them to the House.

    Mr. John Smith (Monklands, East) Can the Chancellor of the Exchequer explain why, in his analysis of our economic situation, he was unable to utter the word “recession”? Is not it clear from the surveys compiled by the Confederation of British Industry and by the chambers of commerce, let alone from the experience of commerce and industry from one end of the country to another, that we are the midst of a recession and that the outlook for an economy with falling output, with declining investment and with rising unemployment is far from encouraging?

    From table 11 in the “Economic Prospects for 1991” section of the autumn statement, is not it clear that output is predicted to fall significantly in the second half of 1990 and in the first half of 1991 – that is, for a whole year or for four quarters? By any definition, is not that a recession? Why is that information hidden in a table at the back of the published document? Why does not the Chancellor come to the Dispatch Box and admit that, as his figures prove, we are in a recession and that the recession has been caused by the Government’s economic policies? Is not it the case that the only way in which he can justify the phrase in his statement about “strengthening of output” is by a leap of faith that output will suddenly increase in the second half of 1991?

    Is not it clear from the Chancellor’s document that, having predicted in his Budget – not all that long ago – that manufacturing output would increase by ¾ per cent. in the first half of next year, he now predicts that it will fall by ½ per cent. for the whole of that year? In the Budget, investment was forecast to decline by ¾ per cent. in the first half of next year; now it is forecast to be falling by 1 per cent. for the whole of 1991. In the Budget, exports were predicted to increase by 5½ per cent.; now they are forecast to rise by just 2½ per cent.

    As we are clearly experiencing a recession, why do the Government continue to cause reductions in the investment expenditure of the Department of Trade and Industry? Why is it cut by £250 million in cash terms, and by even more in real terms? As we prepare for 1992, should not we be increasing investment in the regions, in training, in export promotion and in research and development?

    Can the Chancellor tell us whether he has reversed the cuts in the training budget that he announced last year? The Department of Employment appears to have sustained a cut of £370 million; I understand that some of that is accounted for by £254 million going to Scottish Enterprise, which will take over responsibility for some of these functions in Scotland. I must tell the Chancellor that, with considerable difficulty, I was able just a few minutes ago to extract from the Department of Employment its press release explaining its figures. It said: Employment training, which is already running substantially below capacity this year, will be reduced in scale and reshaped to give TECs more discretion in matching the needs of their local labour markets … Payments to TECs will be more closely focused on their success in securing jobs and qualifications for participants. We have learnt from the past that – as far as the Government are concerned – closer focusing equals reduction. While we are in the midst of our present economic difficulties, why on earth are we cutting spending on training? Will the Chancellor tell us what the cut is and will he tell us why?

    The Government will also seek to take credit for the instances in which there are planned increases in the totals for public expenditure. Will the Chancellor reflect on the experience of last year? The figures provided today show that a planned expenditure total of £179 billion turned out to be £180 billion. However, the GDP deflator – which was estimated last year at 5 per cent. – turned out to be 8 per cent. because of inflation.

    Is not it clear that the promised increase in public spending announced this time last year did not materialise? The public know that. That is why they know that the services on which they depend have not improved – that teacher shortages are increasing, and hospital waiting lists are at record levels. Do not the Government’s own figures about the effects of inflation on the projected increases for the year to come show that those figures corroborate the experience of all our constituents in relation to public services? Does the Chancellor think that it was a bit much to talk in his autumn statement about protecting the “vulnerable groups in society”, given the Government’s position on child benefit, which was announced only a few weeks ago?

    Will the Chancellor explain the cuts in the Department of the Environment budget? There appear to be cuts in the total, although the text that he read out mentions increases. Will he say whether less will be spent next year than is currently being spent on water, environment and the countryside? Will the Chancellor tell us who invented the word “rooflessness”? Is it meant to be a synonym for being homeless? Was the word introduced because Ministers and the Chancellor cannot bring themselves to talk about the state of homelessness that they have caused for so many people in this country?

    The Chancellor made some predictions. Has he reflected on the record of the Treasury at making successful economic predictions? I assume that he has read the Treasury bulletin issued recently which confirms that in 1988 the Treasury was wrong by 288 per cent. about the balance of payments; in 1989, it was 30 per cent. wrong about the balance of payments; and in 1990, 20 per cent. wrong – [HON. MEMBERS: “Getting better.”] Getting better, certainly, but there is still a long way to go. Conservative Members clutch at any crumb of comfort, but if they find these figures comfortable they need to think again.

    On inflation, the prediction in 1988 turned out to be 62 per cent. wrong; in 1989, it turned out to be 38 per cent. wrong; and in 1990, it turned out to be 40 per cent. wrong. All the same, inflation kept peaking and blipping along while these errors were being made.

    Does the Chancellor recall coming to the House last year with his autumn statement and saying that inflation now would be 5.25 per cent? And what is it? It is 11 per cent. The Government keep making predictions that lack credibility. Does the right hon. Gentleman understand that this is the fifth occasion on which the Government have predicted a fall in inflation? Why should we believe this one any more than the others? And since the right hon. Gentleman is predicting a fall in the headline rate, will he tell us what will happen to the underlying rate? What will be the underlying rate in the fourth quarter of next year?

    We have received uncertain predictions from the Government and they have usually turned out to be incorrect. We have received poor policies and poor purposes. The most disturbing aspect of the autumn statement was the Chancellor’s statement that there will be no change in economic policies. It was those economic policies which got us where we are now and they will make matters worse until they are changed.

    Mr. Major I hope that the right hon. and learned Gentleman will forgive me for saying at the outset that that was an odd response from the shadow Chancellor, who keeps telling the markets that he would spend money only on child benefit and pensions. He produced a litany of areas on which the Labour party clearly thinks that it would be wise to spend a lot more money. [Interruption.] The right hon. and learned Gentleman is clearly sensitive about the deep split between himself and the shadow Chief Secretary on these matters.

    Let me deal first with the questions that the right hon. and learned Gentleman asked. He made a point about recession. He used the word in the way most calculated to alarm – [HON. MEMBERS: “Answer the questions.”] I will come to the specific points in a moment. The right hon. and learned Gentleman’s use of the word recession conjured up an image quite different from the reality of what is happening or is expected to happen in future.

    It is perfectly true that output will decline for a brief period during the second half of this year –

    Mr. John Smith And the first half of next year.

    Mr. Major – and during the first quarter of next year, but if the right hon. and learned Gentleman will listen for a moment he will hear, first, that it declines from a very high level. We shall be back into growth next year at an accelerating rate. Inflation will fall, savings will increase, the trade gap will close and investment will be 50 per cent. higher than in 1979. We shall still have more people in employment than any other European nation. It is clear from what is happening and from what I have been able to forecast today that the British economy is coming back on track – that is what the right hon. and learned Gentleman does not like – [Interruption.] The Leader of the Opposition is occasionally wont to express the view from the Dispatch Box that he is glad that television is here. I hope that it is here at the moment to witness the way in which right hon. Members on the Opposition Front Bench are behaving.

    In terms of investment, the past three years have seen both a record rise in total investment and in business investment and I quoted the figures a few moments ago on the difference in 1979. The fall next year will be modest and from a very high level.

    There is certainly a redirection within the employment programme which is broadly unchanged in cash terms. The Government will be spending more than £2½ billion on training enterprise and vocational education. The savings on employment training have been made following a reappraisal of what employment training is delivering and there will be improved job clubs and other facilities as an alternative, and a considerable degree of extra resources and extra choice for training and enterprise councils in future.

    The right hon. and learned Gentleman referred to child benefit and the vulnerable. He knows as well as anyone in the House that on each occasion that child benefit was not increased, extra resources were put into child scale rates and income support to more than make up the difference. There is an increase in the environment budget of about £180 million in 1991–92 for the White Paper policies despite the fact that this is a very tight year for the survey. It is perfectly clear that although at the moment we find ourselves in the most difficult part of the economic cycle, we can now see our way through it and out of it during the course of next year.

    Several Hon. Members rose–

    Mr. Speaker Order. The House knows that this matter may be discussed in our debate on the Loyal Address specifically tomorrow and again next week. Hon. Members should ask single questions, please.

    Sir William Clark (Croydon, South) Does my right hon. Friend agree that this is a very tight public expenditure settlement and that both he and my right hon. Friend the Chief Secretary to the Treasury are to be congratulated? Although the pundits in the media and the press have been saying that there will be an overshoot of £12 billion on public expenditure, if we ignore the reserves there is an overshoot of only £4.5 billion. Despite our difficulties, more and more money is being spent on capital projects, unlike what happened under the last Labour Government who reduced public expenditure on the national health service and roads. Is not it about time that the Opposition stopped talking down Britain and our economy?

    Mr. Major In his latter remarks, my right hon. Friend asked for more than is likely to be delivered. It is perfectly true that to many commentators this will be a surprisingly tight package. It keeps public spending at £200 billion when many expected larger increases. The share of expenditure in national income remains unchanged when I think that many expected at this stage of the cycle that it might increase. As I said earlier, we still expect a substantial debt repayment in the present fiscal year. It is a tight settlement and it was necessary to be a tight settlement. We will continue to keep tight control of public expenditure.

    Mr. A. J. Beith (Berwick-upon-Tweed) Is not it clear that when we strip away the skilful and ingenious presentation, this statement amounts to cuts in many areas and inadequate investment in the key areas of transport, training and education because the Government must fund the massive inflation that they have caused and also because the Chancellor still has to leave room for the kind of income tax cuts that the Prime Minister keeps talking about without abandoning all semblance of fiscal respectability? Will the Chancellor confirm that the underlying rate of inflation will remain high throughout next year? Will he confirm that inflation minus mortgage interest rates will be high throughout next year? Is not that a serious problem and what is the Chancellor going to do about it?

    Mr. Major I expect underlying inflation also to fall next year – [HON. MEMBERS: “How far?”] To broadly the level of the headline rate.

    With regard to the programmes to which the hon. Gentleman referred, I have already said that something in excess of £½ billion is being added to the education budget largely to finance the very dramatic increase in the number of students in higher education. The plans imply at least as much capital spending in schools and colleges next year as in the current year.

    As there have been huge increases on transport in each of the last two surveys, the priority on transport this year is the extra almost £600 million mainly for the Jubilee line extension, the east-west crossrail and services for the channel tunnel. It is a very good settlement for public transport, for we are determined to produce an efficient and effective public transport service.

    Mr. Terence L. Higgins (Worthing) Although it is very important for the long-term trend of public expenditure to decline as a percentage of national income, does my right hon. Friend agree that the primary role of the rate of interest must now be to keep sterling within the limits of the exchange rate mechanism and that, as a result, fiscal policy has become more important than ever? Against the present economic background, are not the increases in planned public expenditure which my right hon. Friend has announced entirely appropriate if we are to avoid the dangers of recession? In that context, is not the increase in transport expenditure which my right hon. Friend has just announced particularly appropriate?

    Mr. Major I see my right hon. Friend’s point. He is, of course, entirely right about the necessity of remaining within the bands in the exchange rate mechanism to which we are committed, and equally entirely right that we will need to keep a very firm control of the trend rate of public expenditure in future years.

    Mr. Robert Sheldon (Ashton-under-Lyne) May I press the Chancellor further on the underlying rate of inflation? When the underlying rate was less than the RPI, the Government made a great deal of it. Now that it is likely to be more than the RPI, may we have his forecast of the underlying rate of inflation, excluding mortgage interest, at the end of next year, the fourth quarter?

    Mr. Major As the right hon. Gentleman knows – he is a very distinguished former Treasury Minister – the underlying rate of inflation has never been published, for perfectly understandable reasons.

    Mr. Charles Wardle (Bexhill and Battle) What happened to my right hon. Friend’s forecast last year for the surplus on invisibles and to his belief that negative growth in GDP would be avoided this year? If his forecasts this year go even slightly astray, just how disinflationary will £200 billion of spending be? Are not there lessons to be learnt from 1973–74?

    Mr. Major We do have a surplus on invisibles this year, and I would expect there to be a surplus on invisibles next year. The underlying premise of my hon. Friend’s question is perhaps inaccurate.

    Mr. Giles Radice (Durham, North) Does the Chancellor of the Exchequer agree that, as the planned spending total to a large extent reflects the Government’s failure to control inflation and the mess over the poll tax, there will be little room for improvements in vital public services? Will not the increase in the public spending total actually disturb the markets? In other words, are not we in danger of getting the worst of all worlds – disturbing the markets without satisfying the public?

    Mr. Major Of course, if the markets listen to the hon. Gentleman that would undoubtedly be the case. I suspect that the markets will notice that we have kept very tight control of expenditure in the circumstances that prevail, and I think that the markets will welcome the fact that we have been able to do so. It is clearly important that we do.

    Mr. Ian Stewart (Hertfordshire, North) Now that my right hon. Friend has announced the first part of his budgetary package on public expenditure and has shown very welcome restraint on the public expenditure totals, when the time comes will he be equally austere in presenting his Budget in the spring, because a tight fiscal policy is the best foundation for restoring economic growth?

    Mr. Major I am grateful to my right hon. Friend for his early budgetary representation which I will consider with great care.

    Mr. William Ross (Londonderry, East) As the 1992 planning forecast has now increased by 4 per cent. and it is intended to increase that total by 7.5 per cent. the following year and by 5 per cent. the year after, does the Chancellor expect those increased sums to be met from the Revenue or will he dip once more into the public borrowing requirement?

    Mr. Major No, I am not at this stage anticipating a public borrowing requirement. As I indicated in my statement, our medium-term policy is to remain at nothing worse than balance in terms of public borrowing. I hope that we will keep to that fiscal balance. We have a surplus this year, against the expectations of many commentators.

    Mr. Tim Smith (Beaconsfield) Is my right hon. Friend aware that his statement today on public expenditure is most welcome because he has succeeded in containing the increase in spending below that necessary to accommodate inflation while at the same time providing substantial additional resources for priority programmes? Does not the substantial increase in cash spending next year show that urgent need to continue to press down on inflation? Will my right hon. Friend continue to take a tough stance on monetary and fiscal policy?

    Mr. Major I entirely agree with everything that my hon. Friend has said and see no reason to add to it. I could not have expressed it as well myself.

    Mr. Ted Leadbitter (Hartlepool) The Chancellor’s statement suggested that he is still aware of the volatility of oil prices. However, is he aware that today there has been a reported 70 per cent. increase to £1.1 billion in the profits of the Shell oil company? It is therefore reasonable to deduce that there will be comparable increases for other oil companies. Does the right hon. Gentleman accept that the volatility of oil prices is beneficial for the oil companies, but that higher prices for oil buyers, such as motorists and industry, are disadvantageous? Does he agree that a lower profit margin and a more reasonable price would remove one element that has a serious impact on inflation, which so concerns the House at the moment?

    Mr. Major As the hon. Gentleman knows, that point has been examined by the Monopolies and Mergers Commission. The hon. Gentleman is right that the volatility of oil prices represents a damaging uncertainty for the projections that we and other countries must make. It is for that reason that I have taken the assumption, similar to that taken in many other forecasts, of an oil price that will be down to $25 by the end of 1991.

    Mr. Anthony Nelson (Chichester) Is my right hon. Friend aware that Conservative Members fully support the content as well as the style and tone of his statement? Will he also accept our congratulations to the Chief Secretary to the Treasury on showing clear political judgment in giving a priority to increased health spending? However, does he agree that if we are to increase expenditure on such areas – as we must – at a time when our constituents are having to tighten their belts, it would be quite improper to face them with an increased burden of taxation next year?

    Mr. Major I am grateful to my hon. Friend for his kind remarks to both myself and my right hon. Friend the Chief Secretary. As he knows, I believe that my right hon. Friend has produced a remarkably successful outturn to the public expenditure round. I believe that it is important to sustain expenditure on health and, on this occasion, we have managed to increase it in real terms by 5 per cent. again. I note my hon. Friend’s point about taxation, but, as he knows, I must consider that only in the period between now and the Budget.

    Mr. John Fraser (Norwood) With “rooflessness”, as the right hon. Gentleman calls it, going through the roof, how many extra homes for rent will be provided by the public sector as a result of this statement?

    Mr. Major My right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for the Environment will be making that clear in his own statement.

    Mr. Nicholas Budgen (Wolverhampton, South-West) Since my right hon. Friend is promising very substantial increases in public expenditure, will he confirm that there will be room for either substantial cuts in interest rates when it is safe to do that, or for cuts in taxation, but not for both?

    Mr. Major My hon. Friend is well aware that I cannot comment on the prospects of taxation, and I have no intention of doing so. I will not cut interest rates until I am absolutely satisfied that it is safe and secure to do so.

    Mr. Alex Salmond (Banff and Buchan) Am I correct in thinking that the Chancellor has assumed £2,700 million in oil revenues for the current year, bringing to a round £90,000 million the total by which Scottish oil revenues have bankrolled the Government in the past 10 years? What has happened to the additional North sea revenues as a result of the higher oil prices which, according to the brokers’ forecasts, are running at £20 million per day? How much of that has gone to the oil companies and how much to the Chancellor? I am sure that the right hon. Gentleman will appreciate the anxiety of people in Scotland to find out the answer to that question today, given the announcement of further steel closures and the further abandonment of North sea steel markets to the Japanese and the Germans.

    Mr. Major The hon. Gentleman did not, of course, put the reverse point to me some time ago when oil revenues fell dramatically after accidents in the North sea. He should look at both sides of the equation. Oil revenues are important to the Exchequer, but they represent a relatively small element of income.

    Mr. Anthony Beaumont-Dark (Birmingham, Selly Oak) Does my right hon. Friend accept that many of us have been disturbed at what we have read in the papers, which we always believe, that the Government are dismantling the health service? How is it, then, that we are told that we will spend £3.2 billion more this year? If that is dismantling the health service, what would we have to spend if we were trying to improve it?

    Mr. Major I am grateful to my hon. Friend for his most helpful observation. It is certainly the case that, on any measure, expenditure on the health service has risen dramatically over recent years to accommodate not only an improving service, freely available operations which previously were not available, and more doctors, nurses and dentists but a general improvement, as well as the largest capital building programme for hospitals that we have ever known.

    Ms. Diane Abbott (Hackney, North and Stoke Newington) Does the Chancellor accept that the figures that he announced on the extra money that he is lavishing on the health service do not mean much except in the context of the outturn figure of inflation and the relative price effect? As the Chancellor will know, the health service as a whole has a higher rate of inflation than the rest of the economy. That point was made by the Treasury and Civil Service Select Committee in its report on last year’s autumn statement.

    Mr. Major The relative price effect in health may conceivably – statisticians disagree – add about I per cent. over the normal GDP deflator. On that basis there is still a large real increase in health spending yet again next year.

    Mrs. Elizabeth Peacock (Batley and Spen) I heard my right hon. Friend say that investment is slowing down, but is he aware of investment that has recently taken place, is now taking place and is planned to take place in the near future in manufacturing industry in Yorkshire? Is not that a sign of great confidence in the future of manufacturing and our country?

    Mr. Major I entirely agree with my hon. Friend. There has been a considerable degree of investment in manufacturing in the past few years. Equally as important as the quantum of investment has been the quality and nature of the investment that we have seen during the past few years.

    Mr. D. N. Campbell-Savours (Workington) Is not it true that any old Chancellor can reduce inflation if he is prepared to kick people out of work and reduce consumption by in effect strangling the whole economy? Is not the real art to reduce inflation by keeping people in work and maintaining demand? Why does not the Chancellor pursue such a strategy? Is that not in the national interest?

    Mr. Major How curious it is, in view of the hon. Gentleman’s remarks, that we have more of our population in work than any other nation in Europe.

    Mr. John Townend (Bridlington) May I congratulate my right hon. Friend on resisting the demands of the Opposition and, indeed, some of his colleagues, for higher expenditure? Is he aware that by continuing to run a budget surplus and repay the national debt he is doing a great service to our children and grandchildren? He mentioned wage increases. Does he agree that the public sector must set an example this year if we are to bring down inflation as quickly as we hope?

    Mr. Major I am grateful to my hon. Friend. He is right about the repayment of the historic national debt which, by the end of this year, will have amounted to about £29 billion over the past four years. Consequently, there has been a considerable year-on-year saving in interest which will no longer have to be paid on that debt. My hon. Friend is right about the need to restrain wage increases generally.

    Mr. Keith Vaz (Leicester, East) The Chancellor will recall that a couple of weeks ago he was a most unwelcome guest in my constituency [HON. MEMBERS: “Shame.”] While he was dining at the Grand Hotel with the chairman of the Conservative association, did the chairman tell him that the current waiting list for hip operations in Leicestershire was 29 weeks? As a result of the Chancellor’s grand proposals, how much less will people have to wait for operations in Leicestershire?

    Mr. Major The hon. Gentleman is too gracious in his welcome. The chairman of the Conservative association did mention that in the period up to 1979 there were virtually no hip operations anywhere in the national health service.

    Mr. Yeo Would it be fair to characterise my right hon. Friend’s statement as one that puts teachers and textbooks before tax and patients before prisons? Has the achievement of containing public spending in real terms at the same time as directing resources to those highly desirable areas been made possible by the success of the Government’s policies over the past decade in defence and law and order?

    Mr. Major My hon. Friend is entirely right. He certainly analyses the autumn statement correctly. Had it not been for the staunch and successful way in which the Government decided to station cruise missiles two or three years ago and the effects that followed from that, I doubt whether we could safely have reduced defence expenditure today.

    Mr. Skinner Why does the Chancellor of the Exchequer come to the House of Commons with nothing less than a cock and bull story? During the past 11 years, the Government have accumulated more than £120 billion in extra revenue through privatisation and North sea oil revenues. As a result of those 11 years, we now have a public sector debt repayment which, according to him, will be only £3 billion next year and will disappear from view the following year, a trade balance of £15 billion and invisibles that are almost invisible, whereas they used to amount to £700 million a month. No wonder he says that the economy must be put back on track. He is running an economy that is off the rails.

    Mr. Major I am bound to say that a PSDR of only £3 billion was not a beast that I recall during the period of the Labour Government. The hon. Gentleman referred to a cock and bull story. We know which of those he talks.

    Mr. Richard Alexander (Newark) My right hon. Friend told the House the total amount of saving in the national debt which will be achieved as a result of this statement. How much saving to income tax payers will be represented by the fact that they no longer have to pay the interest payments on that capital sum?

    Mr. Major It will be a considerable sum. I cannot give my hon. Friend a precise answer, but we are talking about approximately £2.5 billion a year which is perhaps equivalent to 1p or 1.5p on the standard rate of income tax.

    Mr. Paul Flynn (Newport, West) Will the Chancellor of the Exchequer comment on the claimed increase in what he might describe as “bedlessness” in that, by next April, 3,500 hospital beds will close to comply with the Government’s “finance first and patients last” policy? What effect will today’s statement and the closure of those hospital beds have on waiting lists next year? Will they stay the same, increase or decrease?

    Mr. Major The hon. Gentleman should perhaps look at the whole question in the round. The cash increase for the hospital and community health services budget was more than 10 per cent. in 1990–91. Even on the basis of health service inflation, which the hon. Member for Hackney, North and Stoke Newington (Ms. Abbott) mentioned, that is a substantial increase over and above inflation. The same health authorities to which the hon. Gentleman referred are also planning to spend more than £220 million on service developments. If there are volume increases on that scale, I see no reason for the shortfall to which he refers.

    Mr. Michael Morris (Northampton, South) I congratulate my right hon. Friend on giving the House such a clear financial strategy, which contrasts with the questioning from Opposition Benches. May I congratulate him on a realistic planning total for reserves? To return to the welcome 5 per cent. real increase in health expenditure, will he say whether the planning total on which this is based is at least no lower than the planning total for the current year?

    Mr. Major Yes, I can certainly confirm that it is a 5 per cent. real increase. It is there specifically to reflect the priority that we give to health. I am grateful to my hon. Friend for his early remarks, particularly those about the increase in reserves. With the present uncertainties, it is wise to increase them to £3½ billion, £7 billion and £10½ billion respectively. Events may yet show that.

    Mr. Wareing Is not the Chancellor of the Exchequer misleading the House when he tells us that, despite tight control of public expenditure, vulnerable people are to be protected? How does he justify a cut in Government grant for the first time in history to the Royal National Institute for the Blind to assist it with the production of braille material? How long will it be before people, such as blind people, are not expected to bail the Government out of the economic mess for which they are responsible? Who is responsible for that decision and what is the justification for it?

    Mr. Major The answer to whether I am misleading is categorically no. The hon. Gentleman asked about the blind. He would do well to reflect upon the changes that I made in the Budget specifically to help people with that most distressing ailment.

    Sir Ian Lloyd (Havant) The Chancellor will doubtless agree that if the claims of every organisation in the country which said that it was underfunded were met, the Chief Secretary would be coming before the House with a claim for about 60 per cent. of the national income rather than the figure that he has announced. The Chancellor told us that the increase in output in real terms is likely to be 2 per cent. and probably not much more in the foreseeable future. Against that, those very expensive organizations – the national health service and local government – have received increases of just over £5.5 billion or 5 per cent. in real terms. If those claims are met in real terms which sectors of the economy will pay for them in real terms?

    Mr. Major My hon. Friend is right about the inevitable claims that could be placed upon the public purse, often for quite legitimate schemes which, if the resources were available, one would be pleased to meet. The substantial increase for health and local government is at the expense of other areas in which we have been able to make savings and, of course, at the expense of a smaller debt repayment than might otherwise have been the case.

    Mr. John Evans (St. Helens, North) Will the Chancellor confirm that, despite his words about protecting the most vulnerable groups in society, his statement contains no additional community charge resources for northern metropolitan boroughs such as St. Helens? Does he agree that any system that gives the borough of Westminster twice as much money per child to care for children at risk from abuse and poverty than it gives to children in St. Helens is corrupt and indefensible?

    Mr. Major The hon. Gentleman has uncharacteristically overlooked the enormous increase of £2.5 billion made available to cushion community charge payers, often from unjustified levels of expenditure. He has equally uncharacteristically forgotten the £3 billion increase in social security that is specifically to help vulnerable people.

    Mr. Quentin Davies (Stamford and Spalding) I congratulate my right hon. Friends the Chancellor and the Chief Secretary on striking an extremely skilful balance in achieving a £200 billion public expenditure outturn. Does my right hon. Friend agree that in the fight against inflation there is a trade-off between the public sector surplus or net debt repayment and private sector savings? In that context, one of the most encouraging features of the past few months has been the rise in the household sector savings ratio. Does he agree that that will continue to play a key role in the fight against inflation?

    Mr. Major I strongly agree with my hon. Friend. The savings ratio has increased significantly over the past year as a result of increased savings and reduced borrowing. I hope that that trend will continue because it is greatly in all our interests for it to do so.

    Mr. Stuart Bell (Middlesbrough) The Chancellor said that there was central Government provision for the poll tax of about £3,000 million. He also said that the poll tax had helped to double the retail prices index from last year’s forecast of 5.75 per cent. to 11 per cent. He also accepted that local government borrowing had been higher because of the slow collection rate of the poll tax. Is it any wonder that the poll tax is as unpopular today as it was when it was introduced?

    Mr. Major The community charge added 1 per cent. to the retail prices index. The hon. Gentleman is entirely correct about that. However, it was not so much the community charge itself but the increasing level of expenditure reflected in a high community charge that added to the retail prices index. It is difficult to avoid the fact that in the first year of the community charge there was a quite unprecedented increase in local authority expenditure. That was because many local authorities took the opportunity on the introduction of the charge to increase their expenditure in the hope of blaming the Government for it.

    Mr. Jonathan Sayeed (Bristol, East) Will my right hon. Friend remind the House what happened to the ratio of public expenditure to national income in previous periods of slower growth and what were the consequences for inflation?

    Mr. Major My hon. Friend touches on an important point. Both in this country and elsewhere, at times in the cycle similar to that in which we now find ourselves, the ratio of public expenditure tended to rise dramatically with an impact on taxation and frequently on inflation, too.

    Mr. Peter Hardy (Wentworth) The Chancellor seems to strike a rather complacent note on the creation of jobs. Will he confirm that a very much larger proportion of the jobs created in Britain in the past few years has been casual, low paid and part time – far more casual, low paid and part time than the jobs created in our main competitor countries?

    Mr. Major The hon. Gentleman is correct in that some, but not all, of the jobs are indeed part time, but that reflects many people’s demand to work part time. They are now able to satisfy themselves on that count as they were previously unable to do. Whichever way one examines the labour market, we have a significantly higher percentage of our population in work than any other European nation, including Germany.

    Mrs. Edwina Currie (Derbyshire, South) Am I right in thinking that we are spending a lot more on education – that in fact education has done rather well out of this statement? But do we have systems in place that will ensure that the money is spent – especially in counties such as Derbyshire – on improving the quality of education and the physical fabric of our schools and not, as it is at the moment, with excessive administration expense, on free newspapers, educational advisers who have nothing to do with education, and subsidised baked beans for school meals?

    Mr. Major My hon. Friend is quite correct. The figure of £520 million which I quoted earlier was the central Government increase. There is also a significant increase in local government spending in education, a large part of which is financed by the aggregate external finance settlement.

    Mr. Robert Hughes (Aberdeen, North) Does not the very elegant Treasury prose which the Chancellor read so beautifully – especially the part that said that the higher than expected inflation had not been allowed to feed through into Government public spending – disguise the fact that, never mind any improvements for the very vulnerable in our society, the health service and others will have to make cuts simply to keep pace with current demands?

    Mr. Major No, it does not. I illustrated to the House where the savings had been made to provide increased resources for the vulnerable; for education, social security and health. I set out where those savings had come from. So the hon. Gentleman’s premise is, I fear, inaccurate.

    Mr. Nicholas Winterton (Macclesfield) Although I warmly welcome the additional resources allocated to health, education and infrastructure in the announcement made by my right hon. Friend this afternoon, does he agree that manufacturing industry is the only genuine source of non-inflationary economic growth and that he would be able to allocate even more resources to those deserving and necessary areas if interest rates came down and if manufacturing industry could play a more positive and productive role in the economy?

    Mr. Major As my hon. Friend knows, the thrust of the Government’s present fiscal and monetary stance is to move to a position where we can see inflation falling significantly which will open the possibility, when it is safe and secure to do so, to reduce interest rates. I shall certainly do that, but not, alas, until I am convinced that it is safe and secure to do so. To do so prematurely would not be in the interests of manufacturing industry or of any other part of the economy.

    Mr. Peter L. Pike (Burnley) The Chancellor forecast that he would receive £5.5 billion from the proceeds of privatisation. He is going to repay national debt to the tune of £3 billion. If he was producing a balance sheet, would not he have to show that he is using £2.5 billion to subsidise the programme for the year ahead and that he will end up with £5.5 billion less in assets? What will he do when there is no more family silver to sell?

    Mr. Major The £5.5 billion is next year and the £3 billion is this year. If we were borrowing at the rate at which the last Labour Government borrowed, there would be a £50 billion borrowing requirement.

    Several Hon. Members rose–

    Mr. Speaker Order. A very important foreign affairs debate will follow the autumn statement. I wonder whether, exceptionally, I could have an arrangement with those hon. Members who are standing. If I call them on the autumn statement, may I ask them not to rise on the business statement?

    Mr. Richard Tracey (Surbiton) My right hon. Friend’s allocation of resources to health, transport and education will be particularly welcomed in my constituency and in London generally. As we are not allowed by the rules of the House to question the Opposition on the various intemperate promises that they have dangled before the public, will my right hon. Friend speculate on how a Labour Government could possibly pay for the kind of promises that the Opposition have made? What extra taxation and borrowing would be needed?

    Mr. Major They would not, of course, pay. My hon. Friend and other taxpayers would pay. I am not sure that Mr. Speaker’s ruling is quite so welcome to me as it is to my right hon. Friend the Leader of the House.

    Mr. Speaker I am sorry.

    Mr. Jacques Arnold (Gravesham) My right hon. Friend will be aware of the concern about global environmental issues, overseas aid and the work of the BBC’s overseas service. Will he confirm that his statement means that these important British programmes will be both safeguarded and extended?

    Mr. Major I can confirm that there is to be an increase in resources for the BBC world service. On the environment, I referred earlier to the increase of £180 million.

    Sir Hal Miller (Bromsgrove) Will my right hon. Friend reflect on the contribution made by the motor industry to the achievement of his targets in the autumn statement? It has expanded employment and radically improved the balance of trade. When he makes his Budget judgment will he bear the industry’s contribution in mind?

    Mr. Major I am grateful to my hon. Friend for his early representations. It is true that the turnround in the motor industry’s performance in recent years has been remarkable.

    Mr. Peter Thurnham (Bolton, North-East) I congratulate my right hon. Friend on a tight and financially prudent package, but will he confirm that he has also been able fully to protect those groups that are particularly vulnerable to inflation?

    Mr. Major As I said in my statement, the £3 billion increase in social security is intended specifically to ensure that that occurs. I believe, therefore, that I can give to my hon. Friend the assurance that he seeks.

    Mr. James Paice (Cambridgeshire, South-East) While, Mr. Chairman – [HON. MEMBERS: “Mr. Chairman?”] One has waited so long, Mr. Speaker, one forgets.

    Mr. Speaker It is lucky that I do not forget, is it not?

    Mr. Paice My right hon. Friend’s statement, which included extra expenditure on a range of important services, is welcome, but does he agree that he would have been able to give far more within the same planning total had it not been for the profligacy of local government? Does he also agree that those who call for extra expenditure should direct their criticism at authorities that waste money in the belief that by providing jobs they are in some way helping? Instead they should provide cost-effective services.

    Mr. Major My hon. Friend is entirely right. When he has an opportunity to examine in detail the figures that I shall publish next week, he will see that we have had to squeeze central Government expenditure to accommodate the local government expenditure overrun.

    Mr. Michael Jack (Fylde) Can my right hon. Friend confirm that had he been making his announcement today with the same proportion of gross domestic product available to him in tax revenue as the last Labour Government enjoyed, his total expenditure would have been short by some £18 billion? Can he also confirm that this remarkable achievement has come about during the lifetime of this Government, even though there have been falling tax rates?

    Mr. Major I can certainly confirm that, but I cannot confirm the precise figure. I have no reason, however, to suspect that my hon. Friend’s figure is inaccurate. There have been falling tax rates. The only reason why the tax burden has not fallen, relatively, is that the last Labour Government had a borrowing requirement and did not tax honestly for their expenditure.

  • Mr Major’s Exchange Rate Mechanism Statement – 15 October 1990

    The text of Mr Major’s Exchange Rate Mechanism Statement, made on 15th October 1990 in the House of Commons.


    The Chancellor of the Exchequer (Mr. John Major) I should like to make a statement about sterling’s entry to the exchange rate mechanism of the European monetary system, which took effect on Monday, 8 October.

    Sterling now has a fixed central rate against each of the other currencies in the ERM. The entry rate is set against the ecu and translates to a central rate against the deutschmark of DM 2.95. That was marginally above the market level when the decision to enter was announced on Friday, 5 October and is a little below the current market rate.

    Sterling is able to move by a maximum of 6 per cent. above or below the central rates. Our choice of the wider 6 per cent. margins is intended to allow sterling to settle into the system, and follows recent precedent. In due course, we will move to the narrow band of 2¼ per cent. margins. The terms of entry we have agreed with our partners are those that we sought.

    The Government have long made it clear that sterling would enter the exchange rate mechanism during stage 1 of economic and monetary union, which began in July. It has now done do, at the earliest appropriate time. I would like to explain how our decision fits into the Government’s wider economic strategy.

    It has become abundantly clear that policy is now reducing inflationary pressures in the economy. Monetary growth on all measures has fallen sharply, and the growth of narrow money is within its target range. The growth of demand has slowed. Although the rise in oil prices will continue to feed through for a while, the prospect is for a substantial reduction in inflation over the coming year. That will be so both in absolute terms and in relation to inflation in other European countries. It was for those reasons that we felt able to reduce interest rates by 1 per cent.

    A firm exchange rate is a vital part of our policy to maintain tight monetary conditions in order to reduce inflation. As I have repeatedly made clear, membership of the exchange rate mechanism will be an additional discipline for the United Kingdom economy. In no sense is it a soft option. Monetary policy will remain tight. I must emphasise that I will not make a further reduction in interest rates until I am sure that it is safe and prudent to do so.

    Membership has important implications for British companies and their employees. They must contain their costs. If they fail to do so, they will not be bailed out by a devaluation of the currency. That is the key message for those engaged in pay bargaining this autumn and subsequently.

    But in addition to acting as a discipline on costs, membership of the exchange rate mechanism offers significant benefits for British industry. It will help to provide greater stability of exchange rates with our main trading partners and thus the certainty that business needs to plan for the future. It will also make Britain even more attractive for inward investment.

    Although entry to the narrow band of the exchange rate mechanism will fulfil our obligations under stage 1 of economic and monetary union, it does not imply any change in our opposition to the imposition of a single currency. In the intergovernmental conference in December, we shall continue to argue against that plan and for the proposals that I first set out in June. As the House knows, they propose an evolutionary and market-based approach, based on the creation of a new European monetary fund and a common currency – the hard ecu.

    In summary, the mechanism has a proven record of success over recent years in producing greater stability of exchange rates and lower inflation. The Government believe that Britain too will benefit from membership. The exchange rate mechanism will reinforce our counter-inflationary policies, help to provide the stability and certainty that industry needs, and set the right framework for a resumption of soundly based and non-inflationary growth. I commend entry to the House.

    Mr. John Smith (Monklands, East) As the Chancellor is aware, the Labour party welcomes the decision that sterling should join the exchange rate mechanism, not least because of the potential benefit that a more stable exchange rate could bring to the process of Britain’s much-needed economic recovery. However, it will not of itself lead Britain out of the economic cul-de-sac of high and rising inflation, recession, increasing unemployment and serious balance of payments deficits to which the Government’s policies have led.

    I want to ask the Chancellor first about the celebrated Madrid conditions into which the Prime Minister entered in June 1989, and which she reported to the House formally on 29 June last year. At that time, the Prime Minister was in no doubt that the rate of inflation was too high for Britain to enter the exchange rate mechanism. In a reply to a question from my right hon. Friend the Leader of the Opposition, she said: On the exchange rate mechanism, our promise has been that we would go in when the time was right. I” – note, “I” – put conditions on that and made it much clearer that when those conditions were met we should be able to go in. One condition depends on us, which is that we get inflation well down”. Earlier, she said:

    we must first get our inflation down.” – [Official Report, 29 June 1989; Vol. 155, c. 1111, 1110.] Every time that she has been asked since then, the Prime Minister has repeated the condition. In July 1989, inflation was to be “significantly lower”. The Chancellor said on 26 March this year: we wish to see inflation fall before we enter the mechanism.” – [Official Report, 26 March 1990; Vol. 170, c. 117.] Only two weeks ago, the Prime Minister was reported as saying in Switzerland:

    The Madrid conditions won’t be changed and they include getting inflation nearer the European average. The Prime Minister’s role is crucial – she invented the Madrid conditions. They were not imposed on her by other members of the European Community. The present Chancellor was not in Madrid when these conditions were suggested by the Prime Minister, and neither was his predecessor, the former Chancellor. It was the Prime Minister herself, assisted by the then Foreign Secretary, who is now Leader of the House, and who accompanied her to the Madrid summit. Sadly, his views do not seem to coincide with those of the Prime Minister or of the present Chancellor.

    But if the condition is clear – and it could hardly be made more clear – that inflation had to be reduced before we entered the exchange rate mechanism, it is equally clear that it has not been fulfilled. Headline inflation in June 1989 was 8.3 per cent. and is now 10.9 per cent. If we take inflation on the basis that the Chancellor likes to take it – by excluding completely mortgage rates and the poll tax, which is a favourable estimate from the Government’s point of view – then, it was 5.8 per cent. and now, it is 7.9 per cent.

    I ask the Chancellor to explain why there has been such a humiliating U-turn by the Prime Minister who was the inventor of the Madrid conditions and is now their arch-destroyer. Is it not simply because the Government, due to their appalling mismanagement of our economy, have been forced to concede that they could not achieve the inflation target which they had set for themselves?

    Why does not the Chancellor admit this in his statement to the House, on television and elsewhere? Why does not the Prime Minister – whose role is so crucial in this affair that she must take part in the debate which we hope to have in the House – admit it? If our parliamentary accountability is as important as she frequently claims in this context, why is she reluctant to take part in the debate? Is it not because she would find it impossible to justify the abandonment of a commitment that she made to the House on 29 June last year?

    Would not the Chancellor have been wiser to admit that our economy is in dire trouble, rather than to pretend, as he did once again today, that all would soon be well and to claim, as he did on Channel 4 television on the day of his announcement, that at that time there was an ideal conjunction of events Ideal, when inflation was twice as high as that in the rest of the countries in the exchange rate mechanism? Ideal, when the economic consequences of the Gulf crisis are quite unknown? If these conditions were ideal, what were the Government waiting for during all the years when inflation was low and during all the years when there was no Gulf crisis?

    Does the Chancellor not understand that nonsense like this not only fuels scepticism in the markets and elsewhere, but fosters downright incredulity about statements by Ministers? Is is not clear that the Government, baulked and cornered by their economic failure, have joined the exchange rate mechanism as a last resort?

    Now that Britain has joined, will the Chancellor give us his estimate of the consequences for our economy? I hope that he will answer these questions directly. Given our serious balance of payments problems, is it his judgment that the rate at which we agreed to join is sustainable? What is his estimate of the effect on the balance of payments over the period ahead? Will the balance of payments deficit be progressively reduced? Is he satisfied that the arrangements through the central banks under the Basle-Nyborg agreements will be adequate to sustain the management of a currency as widely traded as sterling? Why did he not seek a strengthening of regional policy in the Community as one means of helping to bridge the gap between countries with more successful economies and countries, such as Britain, which are in difficulties?

    Finally, I wish to ask the Chancellor – [Interruption].

    Mr. Speaker Order.

    Mr. Smith This is an extremely important matter of economic and political policy, and the Government should not complain when they are asked questions by an Opposition whose function it is to do precisely that. The questions that I want to ask the Chancellor flow from how economic policy is to be directed now that we are subject to the disciplines of the ERM.

    First, is it not clear that, between now and the next election, responsible economic management will not permit cuts both in interest rates and in personal income tax? To build confidence over the period ahead, will the Chancellor today rule out the possibility of personal income tax cuts before the general election as too wildly irresponsible to be seriously contemplated by any sensible Government? Does he not yet understand that, in the new situation, the supply side policies advocated by this side of the House are even more crucial? Unless we end the debilitating neglect of trading, the collapse of regional policy and the failure to advance new technology – in short, unless we adopt an industrial strategy – is it not clear that we shall not succeed within the ERM, just as we have failed outside it?

    Mr. Major I am grateful to the right hon. and learned Member for Monklands, East (Mr. Smith) for his initial welcome for our decision. We both agree that it is the right decision for the British economy. He spent so much time on the Madrid conditions because he knows that we are right to enter the mechanism. As recently as a few weeks ago, he said: We believe that we should enter the ERM at an early date. The Government agree with him, and we have done so.

    Several conditions were set out in Madrid. The first concerned the abolition of exchange controls, which is substantially completed. The second related to the single market, and the majority of the measures are now concluded and more are in hand. The third related to progress on financial services, which is also nearly concluded. The fourth was progress on competition policy, on which the Commission, on this at least is acting firmly. The only remaining condition was the need for inflation convergence, and it is now clear that we are moving away from divergence in inflation to convergence in inflation. [Interruption]. If the hon. Gentlemen listen longer, they will learn a little more.

    The right hon. and learned Gentleman then asked why we were waiting for a conjunction of events and what they might be. We were waiting essentially for three events: first, the right market conditions and the right market rate, and that we had; secondly, a clear indication that monetary aggregates were coming into line, and that they have; thirdly, signs in the real economy of close and certain disinflation, and that we had. The combination of those factors made this the right time to enter the mechanism.

    The right hon. and learned Gentleman asked about the consequences for the economy. The first and most certain consequence is that entry of the ERM will reinforce monetary policy and help us push inflation lower, which is our central policy aim. He asked whether the rate was sustainable, and I share his view that that is an important question. I am confident that a central rate of DM2.95 is sustainable, for a series of reasons which I will set out now, if the House will do me the courtesy of listening.

    First, DM2.95 is the average inflation-adjusted real rate of the past decade. It is the recent market rate and, as a number of analysts have pointed out, the pound’s purchasing power parity – in essence, the rate at which the prices of our goods would be equal to the prices of German goods – is above DM2.95. Three analysts have calculated it specially: one at DM3.30, one at DM3.19 and one at DM2.95. Similarly, as the right hon. and learned Gentleman may know, the International Monetary Fund has released figures that suggest that industry will be competitive at DM2.95.

    Mr. Ron Leighton (Newham, North-East) When has it ever been right?

    Mr. Major When has the hon. Gentleman ever been right?

    I understand the concern that underlies the question. The truth is that the trade gap is the result of domestic demand outstripping supply and not an uncompetitive exchange rate. That is the reality of what has happened.

    The right hon. and learned Gentleman’s next question concerned the central banks. I am content that the central bank agreement is satisfactory and I think that the right hon. and learned Gentleman is aware of that. I did not regard stronger regional policies as necessary or negotiable in my discussions with my partners in Europe.

    On the responsibility for future economic management, the right hon. and learned Gentleman referred to the possibility of interest rate cuts and tax cuts. I made clear a few moments ago the position on interest rate cuts. Tax cuts are a matter for the Budget and not before.

    Mr. Terence Higgins (Worthing) My right hon. Friend the Chancellor is reported to have said that a remark by Mr. Delors that we joined the ERM in order to slow down EMU is “rather rum”. Is that not a good description of Mr. Delors’s position, given that we have been in the lead in implementing the single market and that my right hon. Friend’s proposals for a hard ecu are a far more practical, effective and better way forward than Mr. Delors’s proposals for stages 2 and 3?

    Mr. Major I am grateful to my right hon. Friend for those remarks. I agree entirely. The hard ecu moves us in the direction of a market-led approach, which I believe is the only sustainable way forward.

    Mr. James Molyneaux (Lagan Valley) As Parliament – both sides of the House of Commons – has rendered itself impotent on these matters, is it not imperative that there should be no further erosion of Britain’s position until the electorate have been consulted at a general election?

    Mr. Major With respect to the right hon. Gentleman, I do not agree with his underlying premise.

    Sir William Clark (Croydon, South) Now that the euphoria of the markets has subsided, will my right hon. Friend re-emphasise that joining the ERM is not a soft option, and that it is essential for us to keep tight monetary control? Does he agree that there has been a wide welcome for the fact that we do not agree with a single currency and that at the new meetings the hard ecu suggestion will be put forward?

    Mr. Major I certainly agree with my right hon. Friend’s final point, and I confirm it. I think that the euphoria of the markets was overdone both before and immediately after entry and, in some cases, the gloom is now being overdone. Entry into the exchange rate mechanism is an additional discipline to underpin monetary policy. It is that and no more.

    Mr. Peter Shore (Bethnal Green and Stepney) The Chancellor will be aware that this is one of the most serious decisions affecting the jobs and livelihoods of millions of people in this country. He maintains that he has got the right exchange rate. That view is not shared by the vast majority of experts, academics and others in this country.

    I shall ask two questions. First, if it turns out that the right hon. Gentleman is wrong on this vital matter, what powers does he have left to change the exchange rate now that it has been agreed with the ERM? Secondly, now that we are part of the ERM, taking account of all he said about tighter discipline, will he spell out what average increase in earnings in the United Kingdom is compatible with retaining what competitiveness we have already?

    Mr. Major On the final point, it depends on the individual company and the individual company’s productivity. On the substantive – [Interruption]. It is the question of averages that has got this country into so much trouble over the past 20 years. On the right hon. Gentleman’s central point of jobs and livelihoods, the most important thing for jobs and livelihoods in the future is, first, to obtain a firm downward pressure on inflation and, secondly, to keep it. That is the central reason for entering the exchange rate mechanism.

    On whether the rate is sustainable, I set out in some detail the arguments in favour of that a few moments ago. As to what opportunities will arise in the unlikely event of the right hon. Gentleman’s next premise being correct, we intend to stay within the bands to which we have committed ourselves. That was the purpose of setting the bands in the first place.

    Mr. William Cash (Stafford) Does my right hon. Friend agree that the acid test is to ensure that the British economy is as competitive as possible, and in doing so to remind the right hon. and learned Member for Monklands, East (Mr. Smith) that the views and expressions of Mr. Tuffin, in repudiating any attempt to hold down wages, are a prescription for our not being competitive? Furthermore, does he agree that the views of Mr. Sam Brittan in the Financial Times that he hopes that British monetary policy will be made in Berlin must be repudiated?

    Mr. Major As my hon. Friend says, the wages round is important. Wage settlements above that which is affordable would have a short-term effect on inflation but a far more fundamental effect on the number of jobs in the economy. That, essentially, is the message that employers and employees must grasp when deciding what increases should be. As my hon. Friends know, we have committed ourselves to stay within the bands that we have set and we shall use monetary policy for that purpose.

    Mr. Alan Beith (Berwick-upon-Tweed) Does the Chancellor recognise that inflation and interest rates would have been lower in this country in the past year if we had been in the exchange rate mechanism a year or more earlier, when Labour opposed it as strongly as the Prime Minister? Will he explain how he and the Prime Minister can continue to talk about tax cuts when the fiscal policy that may need to operate inside the exchange rate mechanism could require him to increase taxes in some circumstances? Does he rule that out? As the Prime Minister’s objections to joining the exchange rate mechanism before inflation was down to the level of our partners have been blown away like confetti in a gale, may we hope that her objections to a single currency and a more independent European central bank will go the same way?

    Mr. Major On the last point, I think the hon. Gentleman is unlikely to see that, and I think that he is unlikely to see that among my right hon. and hon. Friends either. On his first proposition, that inflation would have been lower if we had been in the exchange rate mechanism, if the conditions had been there for us to have been in the exchange rate mechanism, the hon. Gentleman might have been right, because the inflationary record of countries within the exchange rate mechanism is better than those not in it. The conditions for entry were not present. A year or so ago, monetary aggregates were not falling and the real economy was not slowing. We were heading for a position where inflation was going up, not down. Clearly, one could not have entered then.

    Mr. Teddy Taylor (Southend, East) Does the Chancellor recall that, when his predecessor joined informally, we had significant reductions in interest rates and inflation for several months, but a period of regular increases in interest rates to the present savage levels after that period of joy? That was apparently because Britain is almost unique in Europe in having a chronic balance of trade deficit with the EEC. Was not this confirmed by Hoare Govett, which has just published a splendid paper suggesting of the initial good news:

    As with all magic, it is hocus pocus – and would be unlikely to last for more than a year. If by any chance my right hon. Friend, who has our great respect, and the Government are wrong and such critics are right, what powers are available to the Government to do anything? Can we withdraw from the ERM? Can we realign the currency ourselves; or will we be stuck with a situation in which interest rates go up and down all the time depending on our relationship with the deutschmark?

    Mr. Major With great respect to my hon. Friend, the concerns that he expressed were expressed in a number of countries when they entered the exchange rate mechanism in earlier years, and subsequent events have shown that those concerns were not justified. I reiterate: those countries that have been within the exchange rate mechanism and have kept to the admittedly difficult disciplines of the exchange rate mechanism have had a better inflation record over a period than we have. I wish this country to have that better inflation record – for British industry, British commerce and the British consumer. That is why I believe that it is right for us to enter and why I believe that the move will be successful.

    Mr. Robert Sheldon (Ashton-under-Lyne) I accept the need for entry, so that we are not excluded from influencing developments within the Community, but is the Chancellor aware that, of itself, entry at an over-valuation will do nothing for our balance of payments, nothing for manufacturing industry, nothing to help us to get more skills in our enterprises and nothing for investment? Is he aware that what he has produced is just a panacea – a panacea of hope and nothing else?

    Mr. Major The right hon. Gentleman’s question is based entirely on a false premise. I am the last person who needs telling that entry into the ERM is not a panacea, because it was I who coined that phrase a year ago.

    Mr. David Howell Will my right hon. Friend accept that he took the decision that the pound should enter the ERM with considerable skill, and that he deserves warm congratulations on that, even though we shall have a tough struggle to keep the pound where it is? Entry into the ERM ends a long period during which the pound has been kicked around the exchange rate market like a football, and we should be thankful for that.

    Does my right hon. Friend recognise that, if the ERM discipline is to work, we shall require much stronger monetary methods and techniques than we have had in the past – techniques of the kind that he and his colleagues were considering back in January? Will he undertake to pursue methods of strengthening our monetary control in this country – including reviewing, and possibly strengthening, the status of our own central monetary authority, the Bank of England?

    Mr. Major I am grateful to my right hon. Friend for his remarks about our entry into the exchange rate mechanism. We are certainly clear in our minds that we need to ensure that monetary policy is a safe and secure discipline, and I shall certainly continue to do whatever I can to ensure that it is.

    Mr. Nigel Spearing (Newham, South) Does the Chancellor agree that when he uses the word “discipline” he means “decisions taken elsewhere”? And is it not a fact that a nation entering a fixed or near-rigid exchange rate mechanism with a heavy and persistent balance of trade deficit ceases to be a nation of that characteristic and, in the end, becomes a depressed area of a new economic nation?

    Mr. Major When I use the term “discipline” I mean no devaluation and no constant descent into the easy option. In the 1990s, we cannot afford the easy option and, we are determined not to have it.

    Sir Peter Hordern (Horsham) May I congratulate my right hon. Friend on providing a much-needed extra discipline for the control of inflation, and on putting an end to the widespread perception that wage costs could continue to increase for ever and that we could continue to be bailed out by a declining currency? I also congratulate my right hon. Friend on climbing into the driver’s cab of that notorious gravy train, the European Commission, with the prospect of putting an end to Mr. Delors’s ambitions.

    Mr. Major I am grateful to my hon. Friend for his comments about our entry into the exchange rate mechanism, and I share the views that he has expressed about it. On economic and monetary union, I share my hon. Friend’s concern about the destination for which some in the European Community are heading at present. I believe that our proposals represent the right way to proceed, and we shall argue for them very strongly indeed in the intergovernmental conference.

    Mr. Leighton Is the Chancellor aware that pegging sterling at nearly DM3 to the pound is virtually equivalent to signing the death warrant of British manufacturing industry? Is he aware that it is a crazy, stupid and misguided policy? I prophesy that he has it wrong and that the pound will not stay at DM2.95.

    Is the right hon. Gentleman also aware that going into the ERM makes absolutely no sense if we do not want stages 2 and 3 of the Delors plan? I am glad that the Prime Minister is paying attention, because she blusters, huffs and puffs, but in the end always gives way. That is what she has done again.

    Mr. Major I did not notice my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister giving way and accepting the European budget which the Labour party left us in 1979.

    With regard to competitiveness, I have a good deal more confidence in British industry than do Opposition Members. I simply do not understand why Opposition Members persistently talk down the capacity of our industry to compete.

    Mr. Michael Grylls (Surrey, North-West) Does not my right hon. Friend agree that the tightening of money since mid-1988 has done a good job – no one can ever say again that high interest rates do not work in bearing down on inflation – and that that is why he took his decision on the ERM last week? Does not my right hon. Friend also agree that the Opposition’s policy of trying always to suggest an alternative to high interest rates, such as discredited credit controls, proves again that the Opposition are wrong?

    Mr. Major I entirely agree. Our inflationary problem was substantially the result of the dramatic growth of demand. Monetary policy has brought that growth of demand down and will increasingly bring down inflation.

    Dr. David Owen (Plymouth, Devonport) Can we assume that the Government are opposed only to the imposition of a single currency and that they would go along with an optional single currency? Is not such flexibility over monetary union essential if we are to enlarge, as I think we must, to include Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Poland? By insisting on a single currency for everyone, we are effectively ensuring that the European Community will remain only a 12-member Community.

    Mr. Major On the second point, I entirely agree with the right hon. Gentleman. We believe that it is in the longer-term interests of Europe to ensure that the Community of 12 can become a larger Community to admit the increasingly emergent democracies in eastern Europe. We would be wise to do nothing to inhibit their entry at a later stage by decisions taken at an early stage.

    An imposed single currency is not only difficult in terms of the concerns of the House of Commons, with which I have full agreement, but also has real economic dangers for many European nations and we will continue to make those plain. For that reason, we believe that the market-led hard ecu approach is right.

    Mr. Ian Taylor (Esher) Does my right hon. Friend share my dismay about the fact that the right hon. and learned Member for Monklands, East (Mr. Smith) appeared to judge only one criterion of the level of inflation – the RPI – when a much better guide to the trend is the tightening of monetary aggregates? Will my right hon. Friend take credit for taking sterling into the exchange rate mechanism at the earliest possible time when it was clear that monetary aggregates would lead to declining inflation?

    Will he also repeat and underline the fact that, on a purchasing power parity basis, the DM2.95 central rate will not render British industry uncompetitive and that British industry must now take that rate into account when judging future costs and wage rounds?

    Mr. Major On purchasing power parity, my hon. Friend is entirely right. I quoted some figures earlier which are a clear illustration of that. I am grateful for my hon. Friend’s earlier remarks.

    Mr. Giles Radice (Durham, North) Despite the potential advantages of joining the ERM, is not the trouble with the Government’s decision of 5 October the fact that it was taken at the wrong time, for the wrong reasons and at the wrong rate? In view of all the suspicions and concerns of our Community partners, would it not be good for the Government to say that they intend to be a bona fide member of the exchange rate mechanism and that they intend to take a constructive attitude at the intergovernmental conference in November?

    Mr. Major We will take a constructive line at the intergovernmental conference in November, but a constructive line for the future of Europe does not necessarily mean agreeing to each and every plan that may be promoted by one part of the European Community. A constructive line may well mean standing up for British interests and what we see as the long-term interests of Europe. I give the hon. Gentleman an undertaking that we will do that. We will certainly be bona fide members of the exchange rate mechanism. I made it clear today that, as soon as it is appropriate, we will move to the narrow bands. I do not share the hon. Gentleman’s view that it was the wrong time to enter. I believe that it was the right time to enter, and that is why I did so.

    Mr. Ian Stewart (Herefordshire, North) Will my right hon. Friend confirm that it was his view that it was appropriate for a first reduction in interest rates to be made which led to his decision to enter the ERM at that time, and not the other way round, as has been generally suggested against his momentous decision? Despite the constraints of the EMS in future, can he assure us that he will do his best not to be pressed into any reductions in interest rates unless and until he judges that they are appropriate in the light of domestic economic and monetary circumstances?

    Mr. Major I certainly confirm the latter point. On the first of the important points that my right hon. Friend made, I think that it was the right time to cut interest rates and to enter the exchange rate mechanism. Indeed, the monetary conditions – first, the fact that narrow money is in its target range; secondly, the fact that broad money growth has fallen every single month since January; and thirdly, the fact that bank lending is now decelerating and the indications that one can see of the flat housing market and other matters in the real economy – were classic signs that interest rates needed to be cut by 1 per cent.

    I also felt that it was the right time to enter the mechanism. I also had to bear in mind the fact that, since an interest rate cut was clearly justified, if it had preceded entry, it might have been seen as an attempt to drive the exchange rate down in advance of entry or, alternatively, a signal that we were not going to enter for some time. Both of those would have caused market turbulence. Fortunately, it was the right time to do both, and we did.

    Mr. Harry Ewing (Falkirk, East) Is the Chancellor aware that it ill becomes Conservative Members who apparently cannot survive on £26,500 a year to lecture the workers of this country about the need to accept low wage increases in the present pay round? May I be the third hon. Member to ask the Chancellor – on two or three occasions, he has mentioned devaluing the currency – to spell out to the House and the country what powers are available to correct his own mistake if he has got it wrong? If he refuses to explain that, we can only assume that he has left himself without any power.

    Mr. Major On the hon. Gentleman’s first point, the requirement to spell out clearly the implications of unaffordable pay increases is clear. If people do not know that avoidably large wage increases will cost jobs, they may then negotiate wage increases that would create unemployment, and nobody wishes to do so.

    On the second point, I do not accept the hon. Gentleman’s premise that we have gone in either at the wrong time or at the wrong rate, and events will bear that out.

    Mr. Anthony Nelson (Chichester) I congratulate my right hon. Friend on the most welcome statement that he has made today. Does he agree that most people in this country, in addition to lower mortgage interest rates, want to be paid and to save in a currency which is strong, stable and valuable? Does my right hon. Friend agree that, having taken the momentous decision to join the exchange rate mechanism, we have taken a most important step towards economic and monetary union from which there can be no turning back?

    Mr. Major I am grateful to my hon. Friend for his kind remarks about our entry into the exchange rate mechanism. The exchange rate mechanism will play a significant part in assisting other aspects of policy to bring down the rate of inflation so that savings will have a secure value. I entirely share my hon. Friend’s view on that matter. I do not necessarily draw the same conclusion about future developments towards monetary union.

    Mr. Ted Rowlands (Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney) If it is such a favourable exchange rate, does the Chancellor now expect a favourable balance of trade, particularly with West Germany?

    Mr. Major As I have pointed out on several occasions during the past few moments, the purchasing power parity rate, which is what matters, is more favourable than many other people have yet considered. If the hon. Gentleman will wait and see, events will give him his answer.

    Mr. Quentin Davies (Stamford and Spalding) I congratulate the Chancellor on his momentous decision. Does he agree that this is the first time since the Labour devaluation in 1967 that British industry faces the disciplines of a regime of credibly stable exchange rates? It is also absolutely clear from this afternoon’s proceedings that the Labour party remains at heart a party of devaluationists. The vital thing is for both sides of British industry to take on board the full enormous importance of the changed circumstances that they now face.

    Mr. Major It could not be put more clearly, and I entirely agree with my hon. Friend.

    Mr. Jim Sillars (Glasgow, Govan) Does the Chancellor recall quoting the experiences of other countries entering the ERM? Does he agree that it is a fair parallel to cite the French experience – another weak currency like our own – on entering the ERM? Is it not the case that the French had not only to maintain very high interest rates and introduce credit controls, but to tighten their fiscal policy? Why does the Chancellor think that he can get away with a very loose fiscal policy, when the French had to tighten theirs?

    Mr. Major I think that the hon. Gentleman is overlooking several facts. First, we have a very tight fiscal policy and fiscal surplus, which the French did not; secondly, we have put in place a whole series of supply side improvements, but the French have not; thirdly, they have a socialist Government pursuing socialist policies and we have not.

    Mr. Hugh Dykes (Harrow, East) Is my right hon. Friend aware that his decision 10 days ago has been almost universally welcomed in this country? It is a significant step forward, as is his reminder yet again today that the eventual single currency will be reached by agreement, not imposition, which is, after all, the Community habit and was at the specific request of Heads of Government when they asked Mr. Delors to draw up the plans.

    Mr. Major I am grateful to my hon. Friend for his support on those matters, which I greatly welcome.

    Ms. Clare Short (Birmingham, Ladywood) Is not the truth about the timing and level of our entry to the ERM the short-term interests of the Conservative party? The Chancellor thinks that, via an overvalued exchange rate, he will buy, for a short time, a cut in inflation and the stability to cut interest rates. After the election has been called, we shall see a terrible recession because the exchange rate is overvalued. Surely the danger for the Chancellor is that the markets have read all this, and that therefore the pound will drop in value. He will not get his desired outcome – the cut in interest rates – as the whole strategy will blow up in his face. That will be the price he pays for acting in the interests of the Tory party rather than the British economy.

    Mr. Major The hon. Lady and her party should not judge us by their standards. Entry into the ERM is not about short-term advantages and long-term costs – in reality it is almost precisely the reverse. There will be short-term restrictions on policy in return for the long-term advantage of lower inflation. That is the right way to proceed.

    Mr. George Walden (Buckingham) May I congratulate my right hon. Friend on making it clear in his speeches, notably at the party conference, that the success or otherwise of the ERM ultimately depends on self-discipline within the economy? I note his hope, his appeal and his wish for lower wage rates. Will he also make it clear to the country that there must be no resurgence of the bloated house prices that played such a large part in our inflation in the first place if this policy is to succeed?

    Mr. Major I absolutely share the views that my hon. Friend has expressed. The way in which house prices took off a couple of years ago added significantly to our difficulties – they took off after the election, so they did not help us win – and they represented a considerable complication in policy.

    My hon. Friend is entirely right as well in what he says about wage rates, which should apply to management as well as the work force.

    Mr. Doug Hoyle (Warrington, North) Will not the Chancellor admit that, despite his brave words, British manufacturing industry is not competitive, at almost DM3 to the pound? If it is not competitive, what will the result be? In the early 1980s, the Government destroyed almost 30 per cent. of British manufacturing industry, now the rest of British industry will also go down the plughole because of the Chancellor’s folly, dictated not by reliance on economic strategy but by political expediency.

    Mr. Major The hon. Gentleman may feel that, but if he does, he is wrong. In addition, I do not agree with his remarks about competitiveness. I reiterate my point that the size of the trade gap – which I have publicly stated I regret – is essentially the result of excess demand over our capacity to supply at home, no lack of competitiveness. That is why our export performance has been so good.

    Mr. Ivan Lawrence (Burton) Will my right hon Friend acknowledge that, necessary and commendable as entry into the ERM may be, there is nevertheless widespread concern in the country that it will inevitably lead not only to economic and monetary union but to a form of single currency and centralised banking control, and of control over our economy and taxation policies that will take away this nation’s national sovereignty and replace it with the elements of a European super-federal state? Will he make it absolutely clear that under no circumstances will the Government’s policies end at that destination?

    Mr. Major I am happy to tell my hon. and learned Friend that I see no prospect of us moving towards a federal state.

    Mr. Graham Allen (Nottingham, North) Does ERM mean exchange rate mechanism of election rigging manoeuvre? Will the Chancellor explain clearly and simply to the House what mechanism exists to devalue the pound within the ERM?

    Mr. Major I will tell the hon. Gentleman precisely what ERM means – it means an assistance towards low inflation. I am not contemplating devaluation, which is the traditional policy of Opposition parties, not a Conservative Government.

    Mr. Andrew Rowe (Mid-Kent) My right hon. Friend is of course aware that the belated conversion of the Labour party’s Front Bench spokesmen to welcoming membership of the European Community reflects their hope that by doing so they will belong to a socialist Europe. Does he accept that, although many of us welcome the fact that we are being moved closer to Europe, we wish to see a Conservative Europe and welcome his latest manoeuvre because it gives us a voice in the central policies of the European Community?

    Mr. Major I am grateful to my hon. Friend. What has become crystal clear during this questioning, to a greater extent than I imagined, is that the Opposition are split on the issue of the exchange rate mechanism. Their Front Bench spokesmen want to go in, but their Back Benchers are already asking how to come out – that is how split they are.

    Several Hon. Members rose –

    Mr. Speaker Order. I have to have regard for the subsequent business, an important debate on financial services and the European market, in which some hon. Members now standing wish to participate. I shall take three more questions from each side and then we must move on.

    Ms. Joyce Quin (Gateshead, East) Is the Chancellor aware that a document that the House will be considering shortly – the Government’s official response to the report of the Select Committee on Trade and Industry on the EC and financial services – clearly states that ERM entry will be considered only when the level of United Kingdom inflation is significantly lower. In view of that statement, will the Chancellor admit that, for political reasons, the Government have made a complete about-turn?

    Mr. Major That is a very charming attempt, but I will not. The relevant factor is not the historic inflation rate when we were not in the exchange rate mechanism but what the inflation rate will be when we are in the exchange rate mechanism.

    Mr. Edward Leigh (Gainsborough and Horncastle) Does my right hon. Friend agree that membership of the ERM makes sense to a Government committed to national economic sovereignty only if it is seen not so much as a cosy support system but as a measure of fiscal rectitude equivalent to the old gold standard? In that sense, what hope would there be for any Government who retained membership of the ERM but pursued policies of high spending, borrowing and taxation, and low interest rates, as a Labour Government would? Would not that send the pound not so much floating as crashing through the floorboards?

    Mr. Major That, of course, crisply put by my hon. Friend, is why Opposition Back Benchers hate the idea of the exchange rate mechanism and would never, in practice, have let a Labour Government enter and, in the unlikely event of a Labour Government coming to power, they would seek to bring them out. I hope that the markets and our colleagues in Europe understand that.

    Mr. Robert Litherland (Manchester, Central) The Chancellor puts great emphasis on self-discipline. If voluntary wage restraint did not come up to his expectations, however, would he ever consider a wage freeze?

    Mr. Major I do not think that the experience of wage freezes in the past 20 years – under Governments of both major parties – has been at all satisfactory, and I do not envisage our taking such action. The reason why I set out so clearly the importance of the wage round is that the sooner that it is clearly understood by both sides of industry that it is necessary for wage increases to be only those that are affordable, the less will be the impact in the form of job losses.

    Mr. Graham Riddick (Colne Valley) Does my right hon. Friend agree that one of the more distasteful aspects of the whole ERM debate has been the way in which Mr. Jacques Delors has been saying that the inevitable next step is a single currency whether Britain likes it or not? Will my right hon. Friend confirm once again that the inevitable next step is no such thing, and that the present Government will not be dictated to by this Brussels bureaucrat?

    Mr. Major I am happy to reiterate to my hon. Friend that we are not at all in favour of stage 3 of the Delors plan, and that we intend to pursue very fiercely our own plans for a market-led approach.

    Mr. Win Griffiths (Bridgend) Everyone knows that the Government have been thinking about joining the exchange rate mechanism for 11 years, and that they have been looking into it particularly deeply during the past five. Given this amazing conjunction of events, and the Chancellor’s emphasis on the reduction in inflation, can he tell us the expected rate of inflation on a quarterly basis until October next year, and also what estimate has been made of the rate of unemployment in the same period?

    Mr. Major I shall do that in the Autumn Statement – as is traditional – at some stage in November; the precise date is as yet unclear.

    Mr. Anthony Beaumont-Dark (Birmingham, Selly Oak) Does my right hon. Friend accept that many of us were disappointed by the rather churlish response of the right hon. and learned Member for Monklands, East (Mr. Smith) – for whom many of us have considerable regard – when my right hon. Friend has done precisely what was asked of him only a week ago, by reducing interest rates and joining the ERM? Is this because the Opposition have recognised – it has been brought home to them – that what we must have are the same kind of wage increases, in relation to productivity, as other European countries; and that, if Rover and Ford car workers ask for 13 per cent. when Benz and Volkswagen workers are asking for 3 per cent., there is no way in which that can prove successful, whoever are in office?

    Mr. Major My hon. Friend is smack on the button: I entirely agree. I confess, however, to feeling some sympathy for the right hon. and learned Member for Monklands, East. It is not easy to try to ride two horses in that circus.

  • Mr Major’s Speech to Conservative Party Conference – 11 October 1990

    The text of Mr Major’s speech to the 107th Conservative Party Conference, held at the Bournemouth International Centre on Thursday 11 October 1990. The speech was issued as a Conservative Party news release, reference 637/90.


    CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER:

    Let me turn immediately to the concern that I know is in most people’s minds. Two years ago inflation seemed beaten. Continuing growth, falling taxes, rising prosperity. That was what people had come to expect.

    Then we hit difficulties. In essence the case was simple. We grew too fast. We spent too much. We saved too little. And too much of what we spent was borrowed. The result was inflation at home and a trade gap abroad.

    Our objective must be to get back on course: most importantly to reduce inflation; and then eliminate it. And we must close that trade gap. At the moment we import far too much that both could and should be made here in Britain.

    Too often our industry – especially manufacturing industry – is portrayed as though it was the weak link in our economy – constantly in need of a crutch.

    That image is insulting to industry; more importantly, it simply is not true. Manufacturing industry is fitter and more competitive than for years. Increasingly it is attracting the best and brightest of our young people. An independent report recently argued that Britain has the potential to become the manufacturing dynamo of Europe in the 1990s. We have provided the right tax regime – the best in Europe. We have provided the right industrial relations framework – the best in Europe. Now we need to match that with the right low inflation economy and make that the best in Europe.

    On Monday of this week we took an historic step towards that when sterling joined the ERM. No one should think this will be an easy option. Or a soft one. It is not a quick fix. And it was not intended as such. It will not remove the need for tight domestic policies. But it will help us to get our inflation rate down and to keep it down.

    Membership of the ERM will not make it easier overnight for our industry to compete in Europe. But it will help to keep the exchange rate stable and to provide the certainty which industry needs to plan for the future. And we have gone in at a rate at which industry can compete. It is now up to them to stay competitive by keeping costs down.

    But let me correct one misconception that seems to have appeared. Joining the ERM does not mean that we are now on a road leading inexorably to a single currency. It does demonstrate yet again that we take our commitment to Europe seriously and that we mean what we say. But we also mean it when we say that we cannot accept the Delors plan and we will continue to press our own alternative that we believe will better promote European integration and keep the Community together.

    Joining was not a light or casual decision. But it was the right one. And it does target inflation as the poison in the economy that must be destroyed. Only as we do so can we take further steps to reduce interest rates and mortgage rates. I want to see that as much as anyone. I do understand – very well – the difficulties many people and many small businesses are facing. But I know too, that the countries that achieve the lowest inflation rates are the countries that will enjoy the lowest interest rates.

    The trouble with inflation is that the welcome bits come first – more money, cheap goods, expanding output. The unwelcome bits follow – soaring prices, collapsing businesses, lost jobs.

    But the cure works in reverse: high interest rates, bankruptcies, and tightening belts come first. Then we get stable prices, competitive businesses and a growing economy. In recent months we have been right at the nasty end of the cycle – feeling the pain but not yet seeing any of the benefits.

    Although oil prices have not fed through fully into the Retail Price Index I am now in no doubt that inflation will fall sharply over the next year. That will be next year’s reward for this year’s policy.

    And there is a further point. The first time I addressed this Conference was as a Social Security Minister. I noticed then that many pensioners were on social security benefits. Not because they were feckless. They weren’t. Not because they had not saved. They had – and often from modest incomes throughout a lifetime of work. No, they were on benefits because rampant inflation in the 1970s wrecked the value of their savings. I believe that was unforgiveable; we must never let it happen again.

    In recent weeks we have heard little enough of these realities from Labour. One of the main causes of our present difficulties is that, after the Stock Exchange crash in 1987, we reduced interest rates too fast. In retrospect it was a mistake. But we did so because we feared recession. So, at the time, did everyone else: economists, businessmen, pundits, even – heaven help us – the Labour Party.

    So I was astonished to hear Mr Kinnock claim that, at that time, in 1987, he was saying “Steady, steady!”. Now in retrospect that would have been right. But Mr Kinnock? “Steady, steady”, somehow I don’t recall that. So I looked it up. And, try as I might, I couldn’t find him saying that. Almost everything else, it is true, but not “Steady, steady”! Now it may be that I’m being unfair to Mr Kinnock. So let us try a larger sample.

    – Hands up those of you would heard him say “Steady, steady”?

    – Hands up those of you who think he could have said anything as sensible as “Steady, steady”?

    – Hands up those of you who believe he would say anything as short as “Steady, steady”?

    I will let you into a secret. I will tell you why Mr Kinnock always speaks at such length. It’s because he has nothing worthwhile to say. And because he has nothing worthwhile to say, the poor chap never knows when he’s finished. We know when he’s finished. The day after the next General Election.

    By the way, I did find out what he said in 1987 – and I quote;

    “This is a time of judgement and that judgement should be a big cut in interest rates”.

    So much for “Steady, steady”. So much for Mr Kinnock’s memory. And so much for our prospects had we taken his advice.

    For what he really proposed was a policy that would have given us far higher inflation today. And what he plans now would give us even higher inflation tomorrow.

    For every pressure group he has a spending promise. Many are appealing. Some are appalling, others are frankly loopy. But together they are unaffordable. Even the large tax and national insurance increases they admit to could not pay for Labour’s real programme. But, of course, if they kept their promises, tax increases would be bigger. And if tax increases were not bigger then they could not keep their promises. That’s why Labour will not price their programme. But in due course, we will. Just to help them out – and also, of course, to help keep them out.

    There is now only one solitary part of John Smith’s economic programme that still survives: credit controls. The problem for him is that they don’t work, they’re out of date and the rest of the world is ditching them. What a commentary on the modern Labour Party. As the Third World tosses out failed economic policies, John Smith picks them up. Well, after this week he’ll have to pick up a few more if he wishes to look distinctive.

    But put aside for a moment the rights and wrongs of any particular policy. Consider their priorities: the State and tax and spend. And the individual can pay and be controlled. Doesn’t that just sum up the essential differences between our two parties? They are the party that builds up choices by the State. We are the Party that provides choices for the individual.

    They are, of course, closer than us to the trade union leaders. But we know what that means. It means that when it comes to the crunch the trade unions will put their arm around Mr Kinnock’s shoulders and say “Neil”. And he will.

    By contrast, our Party is about people and for choice. People know what we stand for. Our policy is to promote economic well-being. Over the years we have succeeded.

    We have done so because we have been prepared to take the long view, to make fundamental changes, often controversial at the time. To deregulate, to denationalise, to allow enterprise to flourish, and to encourage people to take responsibility for their own lives. This approach is often less cost than promising that the Government will do everything for everybody. But, in 11 years, it has improved the prospects for the future out of all recognition.

    We owe a great deal of that to the policies pursued by Geoffrey Howe and by Nigel Lawson.

    Our approach has been based on the fundamental premise that people want opportunity:

    – Opportunity to do more for their children;

    – Opportunity to improve the standard of their life;

    – Opportunity to obtain the dignity of independence and self-sufficiency in retirement.

    And not only for the better off.

    – Do council house sales help only the privileged?

    – Or employee share ownership?

    – Or lower basic rate taxes?

    We know the answer to that. They do not.

    The changes we have introduced give choice and opportunity to millions of people who never had them before. That is what we have achieved in the last 11 years. It is a truly remarkable achievement. And it could not and would not have happened without the leadership of Margaret Thatcher.

    And that is what we must continue to build on in the future. As we do so, the Labour Party will accuse us of being materialists. I plead guilty. In that one charge they admit the dramatic improvements in living standards we have brought about.

    Of course the charge is meant to make us look selfish. But does it?

    What materialism means for many people is that they are better fed, better clothed, better housed than ever before. They own homes, cars, washing machines and televisions, on a scale earlier generations never dreamed of. They live in a society where literature, art and music are available in abundance. In which political and personal freedom are taken for granted. In which the class barriers that once strangled social mobility are gone.

    And what our opponents cannot stomach is that they live in a society that knows it is the free market and capitalism that have delivered this improvement. For here as elsewhere the market economy has won the political, the social and the economic argument and Socialism has lost.

    Since 1979 we have rebuilt a market economy; we have untangled bureaucracy, we have denationalised industries and reformed trade unions. And it has worked. We enter the 1990s in incomparably better shape than we entered the 1980s.

    – Investment is far greater.

    – More people are in work.

    – Real take home pay is higher.

    – Strikes are down dramatically.

    – And half the State sector is back in private ownership.

    And the prizes before us now are enormous. The 1990s will be a period of immense opportunity. Increasing trade will flow from the completion of the Single Market and the opening up of Eastern European economies.

    I have no time for the misery mongers with no faith in our future. It’s about time people stopped talking this country down and started talking it up. Throughout much of the 1980s the British economy outperformed the rest of Europe.

    Overseas investors have shown their confidence in our country and our workers – and that is why we attract more inward investment than any other European country. We should have more faith in ourselves. And that must be one of our aims for the 1990s.

    And when inflation comes down, as it will; when interest rates can prudently be lowered, as in due course they can; when 11 years’ improvement to the economy brings more prosperity, as it must; the electorate will know which way to turn.

    Once again, it will put its trust in a Government that delivers. That keeps its word and keeps it nerve. That knows what we should aim for and plans to achieve it. A Government, above all, with the will, the authority, and ‘The Strength to Succeed’.

  • Mr Major’s Speech at the Edinburgh Chamber of Commerce – 25 May 1990

    Below is the text of Mr Major’s speech to the Edinburgh Chamber of Commerce on Friday 25th May 1990.


    CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER:

    Far too many people have no conception of the health and strength of Scottish business today. But you have in Scotland a very strong and active business community and a growing one, and I am delighted to see it so well represented here today.

    Ten years ago – even five – I think few people would have been bold enough to predict the dramatic improvement there been in the prosperity and strength of Scottish businesses. That is understandable, for in many cases it must have been hard to see beyond the short traumas of change to the longer-term rewards. But change had to come and now we can see how it cleared the way for a whole new generation of Scottish entrepreneurs, many of them in new and growing industries such as electronics or financial services. I have no doubt that they in their different fields have the ability to equal and surpass the successes of their predecessors.

    This revival of the spirit of enterprise is, of course, a nationwide phenomenon, and in my view it is one of the most important developments of the last ten years. More and more people have seen through that intensely damaging myth that profit was somehow not quite respectable, and that an enterprise society must by definition be a selfish society, and a materialistic one. It is not – and profits are the motor of prosperity. Adam Smith pointed out the folly of that attitude 200 years ago.

    But the simple truth is that the only way to make the improvements in quality of life and public services that we all want to see, and the only way to sustain them, is first to generate the resources to pay for them. You can’t do it by wishful thinking. You can’t do it by piling higher taxes and more regulations on business, because that destroys business and impoverishes the nation. And a poor nation cannot afford anything other than poor public services. No, if we want good services and high living standards as a nation, we have to be able to afford them. We can’t do that without a successful performance from business and industry, and that is one of the principal reasons why business success is so critical for us all.

    I know that some of you, inevitably, must be concerned about the health of business today, and worried that the present level of interest rates may put it in jeopardy. That is a natural concern. I understand it. Of course, other things being equal, we would all prefer interest rates to be lower. But the harsh truth is that if interest rates were lower, other things would not be equal. Most notably, so far from reducing inflation and getting it under control, we would see it racing ahead to levels that are simply unacceptable in today’s world – unacceptable in a whole variety of ways.

    Perhaps some people may have forgotten the damage inflation does. I do not want all of us to have to relearn it by a painful return to anything like the levels of inflation we saw in the ‘70s. For it is not just the damage inflation does socially – to the weakest in our society, to pensioners and others on fixed incomes. It is also that inflation damages business – indeed it destroys business. It destroys investment, it destroys competitiveness, and it is pure poison to industrial relations.

    For all these reasons, inflation must be forced out of the system. But it has not got any easier to do so: if anything, it has become more difficult. One reason for this is that, quite frankly, the economic success we have enjoyed in recent years has engendered a level of confidence amongst both consumers and industry which is hard to rein back. This has been compounded by the increasing shortcomings of our official statistics, which have at times given a less than clear basis for policy decisions.

    The consequences of this are well-known. At a crucial period, in the wake of the stock market crash, we did not appreciate fully the buoyancy of the economy, and interest rates were too low for too long – as we can see now, with hindsight. The result is what I have called an inflationary hangover, and that will take us a time to work off. But we must work it off, however long and painful the cure. For business’s sake, particularly. For in all other respects, British industry is well placed to benefit from a decade which offers enormous opportunities for businesses of all kinds. But we will not benefit from those opportunities as we should, if we continue to labour along under an inflation handicap.

    But that is the position at the moment: although the RPI overstates the extent of our inflation problem, particularly in comparison with our competitors, that does not alter the fact that inflation is clearly too high, and must be forced down. Our tight policy will do that, and is already turning a whole series of indicators in the right direction. But not enough of them, and as yet not far enough, I am afraid.
    The interest rate consequences of that assessment are clear. I am not in the business of overkill; but I can also assure you that I have no intention whatsoever of giving inflation a second chance. So, although there are plenty of signs that the economy is righting itself, there need to be a great deal more before anyone should anticipate interest rates being relaxed.

    So what does all this mean for Scotland? Sadly, there are far too many people who are prepared to run down Scotland’s prospects for the future – the old notion that when England sneezes, Scotland catches pneumonia. To my mind, that view is not only outdated, it is extremely patronising. And it is just plain wrong.

    For today, in many ways, Scotland has been enjoying better economic fortunes than other parts of the UK. Unemployment has been falling faster in Scotland than in the rest of the UK, and fell again last month. Self-employment, which has been growing very fast throughout the UK, has in recent years grown faster still in Scotland, rising by almost a fifth over the last two years. Business start-ups are buoyant, and all the signs are that output has been growing faster than in the rest of the UK in 1988 and 1989. There is no reason why this cannot continue in the coming years.

    There is nothing freakish about this at all. It demonstrates two things very clearly. First, that the improvement in Scotland’s economic fortunes is no nine-day wonder. And second that the interest rate weapon is, as we always maintained, well targeted on the problem we have to tackle. For it was not in Scotland, but in the South East of England that correction was most needed; and because house prices, and hence average mortgages, are so much higher there, that is where the correction will inevitably be focused. Unwelcome as high interest rates are – here, as South of the Border – it should be remembered that they seem to be having far less in the way of unpleasant side-effects for Scotland than many predicted.

    Another thing that will be of relative advantage to Scottish businesses is the fact that on average, Scottish manufacturing exports more per employee than the UK average. I am pleased to see from recent Scottish business surveys that the future outlook for exports continues to be optimistic. At a time when home demand is cool, a sustained export drive is just what we need. I hope that firms elsewhere in Britain will emulate your example, and indeed that both you and they will do even better in the years to come.

    No one knows better than you do that Scotland has faced some hard times over the last ten years. But in the last few years, the Scottish economy has been reaping the long-term rewards – more jobs than ever before in Scotland’s history, the highest growth rates in 15 years, and a flood of inward investment. I believe that will continue while overseas investors retain confidence in the British Government.

    The success story of Scotland is something in which all of us, whether we live in Scotland or not, take pleasure and pride. It is not something the Government will take any risks with. Above all, it is an achievement that we are determined to protect from the destructive power of high inflation. But Governments on their own cannot ensure the success of business. That depends on all of you, and the decisions you make every day as you run your businesses.

    This year, some of those decisions will be difficult. It is not going to be an easy year. Indeed, it cannot be, for we need a period of slower growth while we work off our present problems. But the short-term outlook has to be set against the longer term prospects, which are very bright indeed. The ‘90s bring the opening up of two enormous new markets – one, in Western Europe, which we have all been working towards for years; and one in Eastern Europe which has opened up in an utterly unexpected and dramatic fashion. The combination of the two represents an unprecedented opportunity; and it is a powerful reason for everyone in business today to look to the future with confidence, and plan for it. It won’t be easy. We will have to compete for these new markets. But so long as businesses control their costs at this crucial time, so long as they look ahead and make the right investment decisions for the longer-term, then our chances are very good indeed.

    You face some ambitious challenges ahead, but you have some considerable achievements behind you. You have every reason for confidence, and every expectation of success.

  • Mr Major’s Commons Budget Statement – 20 March 1990

    The text of Mr Major’s Commons Budget Statement made on 20th March 1990.


    The Chancellor of the Exchequer (Mr. John Major) : The Government’s economic policy has two main objectives. The first is to bring inflation down again. Until that happens, we cannot reduce interest rates and keep them down. The second is to enable this country to take the opportunities of the 1990s. In western Europe, the single market is nearly on us. And the whole of eastern Europe, where there is great good will for Britain, has opened up in a most dramatic way. We need to make sure that British business can take advantage of these changes.

    These two objectives are closely related. Unless we succeed in the first, we are unlikely to do so in the second. Therefore this Budget will take no risks with inflation. It will maintain a strong fiscal surplus. It will, above all, be a budget for savers. It will provide a range of incentives to save and a novel incentive to give. It will bring the introduction of independent taxation for married women. It will introduce important new measures for business and keep up the pace of supply side reform. It will remove an old grievance from the tax system and make the social security system fairer, and it will abolish two taxes.

    In framing the Budget, I have had the great advantage of the fiscal reforms of my predecessor, my right hon. Friend the Member for Blaby (Mr. Lawson). He has left the public finances stronger than at any time in living memory and he was also the architect of as comprehensive a tax reform as any other Chancellor this century. That will be an enduring record.

    I will come to the detailed measures later. First, I wish to review the performance of the economy in 1989 and look at the prospects for 1990 ; I will then deal with monetary policy and public sector finances. As usual, the Red Book, together with a number of press releases filling out the details of the Budget measures, will be available from the Vote Office as soon as I have sat down.

    ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND PROSPECTS

    First, the economic background. The year 1989 saw continued buoyant growth in world trade despite some slowdown in the main economies, particularly in the United States. However, increased inflation and fears of overheating in continental Europe led to higher short-term interest rates in most major economies during the year. More recently, we have seen a rise in long-term interest rates–particularly in Germany, where uncertainty about the effects of unification has been an additional factor.

    This general tightening of monetary policy is likely to mean lower growth in 1990 than last year and, in due course, a fall in inflation. We are likely, therefore, also to see slower growth in world trade in the current year, although the astonishing developments in eastern Europe improve the longer-term prospects.

    High interest rates also reflect very strong investment growth over the last two years in all the major industrialised economies. This rise in investment is to be welcomed–and indeed may be intensified by the emerging investment opportunities in eastern Europe–but it also emphasises the need for a healthy level of savings to finance it. The need for higher saving is greatest in the United States and the United Kingdom, where the shortfall is reflected in current account deficits, whereas in Japan and Germany domestic savings have remained more than sufficient to finance their own investment. In the medium term, the United Kingdom’s savings and investment need to come closer into line and we must ensure this occurs through a rise in savings rather than a fall in investment.

    During the last year, business confidence in Britain has remained a good deal stronger than many expected. New businesses have outnumbered closures, by around 1,500 every week; a larger figure than we expected and a record never before approached. Employment has continued to rise, and unemployment to fall. Almost 27 million men and women are in work today–a larger number than ever before and 1.5 million more than at the beginning of the 1980s. Business investment has risen by a further 9 per cent. in the last year, making a total rise of 40 per cent. over three years and taking it to its highest level ever, and a great part of this investment has been financed from rising company profits. In the last few years, profitability has recovered to the levels of 20 years ago.

    As companies have become profitable, they have been investing in more than just plant and machinery. Their spending on research and development has also risen in real terms by almost 50 per cent. in the five years to 1988. They now spend over £5,000 million a year on research and development, nearly all of which is allowable against tax. Similarly, in the five years up to 1989, the numbers of employees receiving training has increased by over 70 per cent. These are all favourable developments which reflect well on businesses’ preparation for the future, but recently, they have been accompanied by the return of inflationary pressures. That, beyond any doubt, is the most urgent problem before us today. To a degree, it is a problem common to all nations. Since its low point in 1986 and 1987, inflation has risen significantly throughout the Group of Seven–the leading economies of the western world–but our affliction has been sharper. There are a number of reasons for this–some welcome and some not. The record rise in business investment is obviously welcome ; but it has been accompanied by a rapid growth in borrowing and in consumer spending. Thus, investment has been rising but the savings to finance it have not. This has led to excessive growth in domestic demand, a revival of inflationary pressures and a current account deficit, a good deal of which itself represents suppressed inflation.

    Policy was therefore tightened, and interest rates have now been in double figures for 20 months. This tight monetary policy has been backed by large Budget surpluses throughout the last three years. So monetary and fiscal policy have acted together.

    Squeezing out inflation is always difficult, but there is now clear evidence that demand is slowing down. High street sales are now only 2 per cent. up on a year ago. The housing market has cooled off noticeably. New car and vehicle registrations are down, and import growth has been sharply reduced. As demand has fallen back, so has output growth, to just over 2 per cent. in 1989.

    No one likes to see the economy slow, but it is inevitable if we are to push inflation downwards. I now expect the economy to grow by only 1 per cent. this year, compared with the above-trend growth of 4.5 per cent. in 1987 and 1988. The size of this slowdown shows the extent of the downward pressure on inflation. But growth should return in 1991 towards its sustainable rate of around 2.75 per cent. I am confident that the period of low growth will be short-lived–not least because of the permanent improvements in in the underlying economy in the 1980s. For example, investment has grown more than twice as fast as consumption over the last eight years. As this additional capacity comes fully into use, inflationary pressures will lessen and more growth will resume. No one need have any doubt about that.

    Last year also saw a record level of foreign direct investment into Britain. Overseas investors see the potential for investment in this country in the 1990s. These investments are particularly welcome as they are in industrial sectors like cars and electronic goods, where a high proportion of the output is traded. For example, Britain already runs a trade surplus in colour television sets, and by the mid-1990s there will be a dramatic improvement in the trade balance on cars.

    Increased investment will enable British industry both to meet domestic demand and to respond to export opportunities. Indeed, that is already beginning to happen. The current account deficit for 1989 as a whole was over the £20 billion I forecast at the time of the autumn statement, but the deficit in the last three months was substantially lower than in the previous quarter and, in particular, the manufacturing deficit is now improving. Exports have been growing faster than imports since the early autumn.

    The reason for this improvement is twofold. In recent years, rapidly expanding domestic demand sucked in imports to meet a market that fast- growing manufacturing output simply could not satisfy. Moreover, that same demand absorbed British goods that would otherwise have been exported. This pattern is now reversing. Exports are now growing rapidly, regaining the share of world markets they lost in 1988. Last year, the volume of exports of manufactures grew by 11.5 per cent.–the highest recorded rate for nearly 20 years. So British industry is responding extremely well to export opportunities. The fact that it is doing so clearly shows that the present trade deficit is not caused by poor industrial competitiveness. It is caused by excess demand, and as that is reduced, the current account deficit will fall–initially to £15 billion in 1990 and further thereafter.

    But we cannot afford to relax policy, notwithstanding the prospect of lower growth. The buoyancy of past demand means that inflation has been far more stubborn than anyone expected. A significant fall is still some months away, and a number of factors will mean that the position will worsen noticeably before it improves. That will be reflected in the retail price index during the next few months. The largest single factor is the increase of some £5,000 million in local authority revenue spending next year. This is mainly responsible for the expected growth of more than 30 per cent. in average community charges compared with domestic rates. This will add more than 1 per cent. to the retail price index next month. Similarly, the further rise in mortgage rates last month will also increase the retail price index.

    As a result, I now expect that retail price index inflation may still be a little over 7 per cent. by the fourth quarter of this year, compared to the 5.75 per cent. I had previously expected. Beyond that, as the effects of these one-off increases drop out and the lagged effect of monetary tightening builds up, I expect inflation to fall below 5 per cent. during 1991.

    To summarise, the economy–both consumption and investment–has been very resilient in recent years. Adjustment so far has been gradual, but this is not necessarily a good guide to the future. The gradual adjustment may continue, but equally, the downturn may become quite sharp. It is against that uncertain background that I must set monetary and fiscal policy, to which I now turn.

    MONETARY POLICY

    I want to deal with monetary policy and interest rates first, for two reasons : because they are of great concern in the House and in the country, and because, as always, they provide the key to progress on inflation. I repeat, my first priority is to prevent inflation from entrenching itself, for inflation is immensely damaging socially as well as economically. It damages business by undermining planning and investment and it foments industrial strife–and, socially, it penalises the weakest most.

    I know that high interest rates are unpopular. They are generally most unpopular as they become most effective. They discourage spending and borrowing. They act directly on the things we have to control if we are to get inflation down. Interest rates are also the most flexible way of responding to what can be a rapidly changing situation. They can be raised quickly when necessary, and they can be reduced just as quickly when it is safe to do so.

    In recent months, I have looked carefully to see whether there is any effective alternative to interest rates. I have done so because I am very conscious of the burden they place on business and on individuals purchasing their own homes.

    I know that many people favour direct controls on lending, hire purchase and consumer credit. I understand that. In particular, I understand the distaste many people feel for the widespread marketing of credit that is so evident today and that is characterised by indiscriminate mail shots encouraging people to borrow. I believe that the financial institutions would be wise to reconsider their policy, and I hope that the subject will be covered in the code of practice the banks and building societies are currently preparing following the Jack report.

    However, having looked at the matter, I have concluded that it is extremely unlikely that credit controls would work in the modern world in anything other than the very short term. They were becoming less and less effective even before exchange controls were abolished over 10 years ago. Their main impact now would be to replace domestic borrowing with overseas borrowing. These days it would, for example, be a simple matter for any high street bank to arrange its lending through an overseas branch.

    That, of course, applies to other countries too, and it is for that reason that Governments of all persuasions throughout the western world are abolishing credit controls and are relying on interest rates to control money, and thus inflation. The same is true of those countries in eastern Europe which are seeking to adapt to the market system.

    In recent years, financial markets have become more open to competition, and their behaviour has changed enormously. As a result, monetary conditions have become more difficult to judge. This is one of the problems of financial deregulation, but one that must be set against the benefits that it has brought.

    Therefore although monetary policy remains the key to controlling inflation, it is not realistic to suppose that we can take decisions solely by reference to the way any one particular measure of money is growing. In a more sophisticated world, we must apply judgment and take into account the other evidence about monetary conditions that may be available.

    In recent weeks, I have looked afresh at the role of monetary targets. Having done so, I am clear that it is sensible to retain a target for narrow money, and that this is best measured by the familiar aggregate M0. Since this is essentially notes and coin, it clearly is not a comprehensive measure of money in all its uses, but it does have value as an indicator of transactions and has been a reliable guide for many years. For next year, I have set the target range at 1 to 5 per cent. Although the growth of M0 has fallen from its earlier peaks, it is likely to start the year above the range, and it may be some months before it falls within it.

    In this re-examination of policy, I have also looked closely at the case for reintroducing a target for broad money. I can understand why some favour this. At times, broad money has given a useful indication of the build up of inflationary pressure. The difficulty is that its message has always varied in quality : its growth can represent money that is about to be spent, or money that is very definitely being saved : savings which I wish to encourage, as will become apparent later this afternoon. Although we will monitor M4 carefully, and give it weight in our decisions, I do not intend to set a target for the year ahead.

    I have also reviewed whether there should be any changes in the Government’s funding policy. The objectives must be to manage public debt in a way that supports monetary policy in bearing down on inflation, without distorting financial markets. I have concluded that, in general, policy should continue to be guided by the funding rule followed in recent years, with the public sector avoiding sustained under or over-funding.

    However, I am also clear that, in practice, the rule cannot and should not be operated rigidly. In particular, in recent years there has been an increase in the size of the Treasury bill issue, largely as a result of a change in the financial position of local authorities. I therefore announced to the House on 15 February a range of measures intended to limit local authority borrowing from the Public Works Loan Board. This change should, in due course, allow a reduction in the Treasury bill issue, but in the meantime, the Government will adjust their funding operations if necessary, increasing gilt sales or reducing gilt purchases, to take account of the overall situation in the money market.

    Progress on reducing inflation is also a vital precondition of our commitment to take sterling into the exchange rate mechanism of the European monetary system. Our commitment to do so was set out at Madrid.

    It remains firm, and the conditions for entry remain unchanged. When we join the exchange rate mechanism, it will provide a new framework for interest rate decisions, but even then, no one should suppose it will bring a dispensation from the need for strong domestic monetary control–indeed, quite the reverse. Commitment to the one will reinforce the commitment to the other.

    To sum up, interest rate decisions will continue to be made on the basis of the growth of monetary aggregates, and a range of other evidence, most notably the exchange rate. This matters because it provides important information about domestic monetary conditions–quite apart from having an effect on prices. Therefore, I favour a strong exchange rate. However there is, as I have made clear, no single lodestar to guide us in monetary policy. Life would be simpler if there were, but it simply does not exist, so judgment is unavoidable.

    My judgment is that interest rates will stay high for some time to come. The moment I judge I can safely lower them, I shall, but to reduce them prematurely only to increase them again would be extremely damaging. When I bring them down, it will be because I believe that they are likely to stay down.

    In chapter 2 of this year’s Red Book, I have provided a much longer and more comprehensive account than usual of how monetary policy, including funding policy, is to be operated over the years ahead. I hope that this will be helpful to the House and, in particular, to members of the Select Committee on the Treasury and Civil Service when they come to examine the Budget documents in detail.

    FISCAL POLICY

    Although monetary policy must play the main role in tackling inflation, a tight fiscal policy is also essential. It cannot do the work of monetary policy, but it can and must support it. The dramatic improvement in the state of public finances over the past 10 years under the stewardship of my right hon. Friends is an achievement of which they can be rightly proud. For decades, successive Governments had spent more than they were prepared to raise honestly from taxation and they made up the shortfall by borrowing. They left that bill to be picked up by future generations. Over decades, it mounted to very considerable levels. Today, just paying the gross interest on the accumulated debt accounts for 10p on the basic rate of income tax.

    Over the past 10 years, we have reversed that trend and in the past three, we have repaid around £25 billion, reducing the burden of Government debt to levels that we have not seen since before the first world war. The rewards of this repayment will be felt by future generations, but they bring also an immediate benefit. As a result of the debt repayments, we are saving over £2,500 million a year in debt interest. That is sufficient to meet the annual cost of around 150 district general hospitals.

    The very large Budget surplus in 1988-89 owed much to cyclical factors. In the current year, as I told the House some months ago, we expect the surplus to fall back. The position, as usual, will remain uncertain until the year is complete, but our best estimate is that the debt repayment this year will be around £7 billion.

    The fall in the surplus owes less to the slowdown in growth than to a number of special factors. We have seen a fall in privatisation proceeds from the very high level achieved in 1988-89. There has also been a sharp and unwelcome increase in local authority spending. This has been particularly marked in their capital spending, as local authorities have sought to forestall the new controls which will take effect in April. As a result, we now expect the public expenditure planning total this year to be overshot by £2.25 billion. Central Government expenditure remains well under control.

    Another, but much more welcome, factor reducing the surplus has been the higher national insurance rebates which have resulted from the huge success of personal pensions. This extension of choice is a considerable tribute to my right hon. Friend the Member for Sutton Coldfield (Sir N. Fowler). Over 3.5 million people have now taken out personal pensions. As well as benefiting the individuals concerned, in the long term this will reduce public spending, but it also reduces national insurance receipts, by £2.5 billion this year. Next year, some of these factors will be partially reversed, but we will see the effect of slower growth on the debt repayment. In particular, corporation tax receipts are likely to fall a little after six years of rapid growth, not least because of the higher investment of recent years which can be offset against tax. These allowances will be worth more than £10 billion to companies next year, as opposed to £9 billion this year.

    It is against the medium-term fiscal prospect that I have framed the Budget judgment, for fiscal policy is not, in my view, a flexible instrument which should be altered to meet short-term contingencies. Fine-tuning fiscal policy is not only disruptive to the public sector, to business, and to taxpayers, but its effects on the economy are uncertain and often destabilising.

    Accordingly, I am budgeting next year for a further public sector debt repayment of £7 billion–the same as this year. Looking further ahead, I expect our fiscal position to move towards the medium-term objective of a balanced Budget–an objective that I reaffirm today. The overall effect of the Budget measures that I shall announce today will be to maintain a tight fiscal policy by modestly increasing the yield from taxation by about £500 million next year and just under £1 billion in 1991.

    BUSINESS TAXATION

    I now come to the detailed measures in this year’s Budget, and I shall begin with the taxation of business. Everyone in this country benefits from the success of British enterprise. Tax reform cannot create success, but it can help and encourage it. Within the tight fiscal position that I judge necessary, I am able to make some changes that should help small and medium -sized companies. Cash flow is particularly important to new and growing companies of this size. I have two measures that should help to improve it. At present, traders pay value added tax on all their sales, even if their customers do not actually pay the bill. They can claim VAT relief for a bad debt only when the debtor has been declared formally insolvent. As a result, the trader, who has dealt in good faith, can be out of pocket, in some cases for years, and often for large sums. This has long been resented by businesses and the time has come to deal with it. I therefore propose that, from April next year, all debts that are over two years old and written off in the trader’s accounts will qualify automatically for relief from value added tax. This will be worth about £150 million to business next year.

    I also propose to help smaller companies by simplifying the rules for traders registering for value added tax. At present, whether or not a trader has to register depends on quarterly and annual turnover thresholds. One only has to say that to realise how difficult it is. Businesses also have to peer into the future to see whether these limits might possibly be exceeded within the next year.

    That complication is unnecessary, so, as from today, I propose a simple rule for VAT registration. This will be based on actual turnover in the preceding 12 months and not unknown turnover in the distant future. It will bring certainty and simplicity in place of uncertainty and complexity. It has a second benefit for businesses : because they will, in general, register later than they otherwise would have done, it will save them £35 million in 1990-91 and £75 million the year after.

    I have two further value added tax changes. First, I propose to increase the VAT threshold to £25,400, a modest sum, but the maximum permitted under European Community law.

    The second change will affect companies that provide accommodation for their own directors. As things stand, the company can reclaim the VAT that they pay on this–for something that is more a fringe benefit than a legitimate business cost. Frankly, I do not believe that this generous treatment is justified. I therefore propose that VAT paid on directors’ accommodation should no longer be deductible. This will take effect from Royal Assent.

    I also have some changes to corporation tax. While the main rate of corporation tax will remain at 35 per cent., I propose to reduce the burden of tax for smaller companies.

    At present, companies with profits below £150,000 pay a reduced rate of corporation tax of 25 per cent. I propose to raise this ceiling by one third, to £200,000. This amounts to a doubling in two years of the profits level for the reduced rate. This will be of special benefit to smaller growing companies.

    For companies with profits above this limit, the average rate of tax gradually rises until their profits reach the upper profits limit of £750,000 a year. I propose to raise this limit, again by a third, to £1 million. This means that no single company will be liable for the full rate of corporation tax until its profits reach £1 million a year. These changes will mean that we will have the most favourable structure of corporation tax for small companies anywhere in the European Community.

    I also have a specific tax change to help training. One of the most welcome features of the last few years has been the massive sums of money being invested in training throughout the economy by employers in both public and private sectors, large firms and small. Our estimate is that in total this amounts to £20 billion a year. In addition, the Government are spending £2.5 billion a year on training programmes ; and the value of tax relief on companies’ spending must be at least as much again.

    In future, over £2 billion of our public expenditure on training will be spent through training and enterprise councils, or TECs as they are known, most of which will be coming into operation over the next year. I have no doubt that TECs will do much to improve training in skills and that we shall see the benefits of this in future. They give employers a genuine opportunity to determine their own needs and will provide generous cash help to meet them.

    The Government have already promised to match local business donations to TECs pound for pound within certain limits. I now propose to encourage business to maximise the money they put into training by providing tax relief on business donations to TECs for five years until April 1995. I propose to extend the same concession to local enterprise agencies until the same date.

    My next announcement has implications for one in four of the adult population, for that is the number of people–nearly 11 million–who now own shares in the United Kingdom. That remarkable figure–a new record–is published today in the annual stock exchange survey of share ownership.

    Over the next few months, the stock exchange will be taking crucial decisions on its plans for a new share-dealing system, affectionately known as TAURUS. This will cut costs, eliminate paper forms, and provide a modern computerised system for transferring shares. Decisions on the design of the new systems for TAURUS will have to be taken shortly. We need, therefore, to decide what stamp duty regime to apply to paperless transactions.

    As we approach 1992, we can expect even sharper international competition in financial services, much of it from other European centres. Competitive and practical arguments point in the same direction. I have therefore decided to abolish stamp duty on securities late in 1991-92 to coincide as closely as I can manage with the introduction of paperless trading. Stamp duty reserve tax will also be abolished at the same time.

    Both the abolition of the tax and the introduction of a more modern dealing system will help to secure the United Kingdom’s position as a leading financial centre in an increasingly competitive world market. They will also reduce transaction costs and permit higher returns for 11 million holders of occupational pension schemes, over 3.5 million personal pension holders, and the many millions of people who hold life assurance policies or unit trusts. It will also be of considerable benefit to small shareholders.

    The assumption in the Red Book is that abolition will be at the end of 1991, at a revenue cost of £120 million in 1991-92. This date will be subject to confirmation later, when I have fuller information about the progress of TAURUS. However, although there is some flexibility about the timing, there is no doubt whatsoever about the decision to abolish stamp duty on shares. I have made the announcement now for two reasons : to remove uncertainty, and to make it clear that there is no need to plan for stamp duty within TAURUS. I should add, for the avoidance of doubt, that stamp duty on land and property will be unaffected by this measure.

    The Finance Bill will also include a number of measures on life assurance, announced by my hon. Friend the Financial Secretary to the Treasury last December. These measures, which flow from the changes in the Finance Act 1989, followed extensive consultation with the industry. They put the taxation of life assurance companies’ unit trust holdings on a sounder footing, and make a number of technical improvements. They will yield £50 million in 1990-91. A further measure will be introduced to ring- fence long-term business assets. Without this measure, there could be a significant loss of tax. I also have a measure to announce that will clarify the tax regime for banks. Tax relief is rightly available to banks, as it is to other lenders, for bad and doubtful debts, but this has given rise to two problems. First, in recent years, the banks have increased very substantially the amounts written off for their lending to Third-world countries. That has been widely welcomed, but sudden increases do have an adverse impact on the public finances. Over time, the tax cost of the 1989 increases could come to an amount going on for £1 billion.

    Secondly, although the principle is clear, it is less clear how to implement it in practice. That is because the relief available depends on the extent to which the debts are estimated to be irrecoverable–and that is often far from clear-cut. This difficulty is magnified when the debts in question are those of sovereign nations rather than of individuals or firms.

    This is an extremely unsatisfactory position for the banks, for the Inland Revenue, and for the taxpayer. I have therefore decided to resolve it and to remove the uncertainties in the present law. Banks will continue to be able to offset their losses on sovereign loans fully against tax, but under a clearer mechanism than previously, which will be broadly based on the Bank of England’s present guidelines. There will be a limit on future increases in the cost of this tax relief between years.

    For the 12 months starting today, banks’ tax relief on such provisions will be limited to the same high proportion of debts as this mechanism indicates for 1989. Thereafter, the ceiling will be increased in steps of 5 per cent. a year, so that the banks will, in time, get all the tax relief to which they are entitled. If the banks sell their debt to a third party and crystallise their losses, their tax relief on them will be similarly phased, but where the debt is sold back to the foreign state, to reduce its debt once and for all, tax relief on that loss will be available in full and immediately. This measure will produce a yield of around £200 million in 1991-92, compared with what might have been expected if I had taken no action.

    TAXES ON SPENDING

    I turn now to taxes on spending. Given the need to keep a tight fiscal position, I have decided that the excise duties, taken as a whole, must rise broadly in line with inflation. Within that overall constraint, however, I have some modest adjustments to make. First, for vehicle excise duty, I propose a number of changes to remove anomalies in the taxation of different types of lorries. These changes will also dramatically reduce the present vast number of different VED rates. Last year’s Budget removed 80 different VED rates, and I propose to eliminate a further 188 today. This will greatly simplify the system.

    Vehicle excise duty on cars–the tax disc–will be unchanged once again this year at £100. Nor will there be any change in VED for public or private sector buses, coaches, taxis and many lorries. I will recoup the cost of this by increasing petrol and DERV duties by rather more than strict revalorisation would justify. These will rise by 10 per cent. This will add 9p to a gallon of DERV and almost 11p to a gallon of leaded petrol. For unleaded petrol, the cash increase will be smaller, at around 9p per gallon. This will widen the tax differential even further in favour of unleaded petrol. This will now amount to almost 16p a gallon. The market share of unleaded petrol has increased fivefold, to 30 per cent. since the changes in the last Budget. I hope and expect to see it increase even further.

    For alcohol, with one exception, I propose to raise the duties in line with inflation. This will put 7p on a bottle of table wine, but only 2p on a pint of beer. Spirits, however, have enjoyed a duty standstill since 1985. I propose therefore an increase of 10 per cent., which will increase the price of a bottle of spirits by 54p. Cigarettes also were not increased last year. This year I propose a 10 per cent. increase in duty, which will put 10p on a packet of 20 cigarettes. The duty on cigars will rise similarly, and will add 5p to the cost of a packet of five small cigars. But I do not this year propose any increase in duty on pipe tobacco. This at least will be one measure which should command the total support of the right hon. Gentleman the Leader of the Opposition.

    Mr. Neil Kinnock (Islwyn) : But not of my wife.

    Mr. Major : In that case, I shall make my apologies to Mrs. Kinnock separately.

    FOOTBALL

    I now turn to football. The tragedies at Bradford and Hillsborough football grounds shocked us all. The report by Lord Justice Taylor made recommendations to improve comfort and safety in our football league grounds over the next 10 years.

    Implementing the programme of work envisaged in the Taylor report will place a significant burden on football clubs, which many of them will find extremely hard to bear. For many are in a weak financial position, and only a handful are profitable. I recognise this problem, but I believe there is an acceptable way to overcome it. The first priority is to ensure that vital improvements in safety and comfort can be made, and the second is to avert what would otherwise be the closure of many of our grounds. If we help football now, I am confident that football will itself contribute to the improvements in facilities that are necessary.

    Let me say first that much of the expenditure required to meet the Taylor recommendations is eligible for capital allowances or for full offset against tax. I know that there has been some confusion about this, and I have asked the Inland Revenue to provide urgent guidance to clarify the tax position.

    However, tax allowances cannot help where there is no profit to set costs against. This is the case with many clubs. I have therefore reviewed the rate of pool betting duty–the tax which is paid by the pools companies on the stakes they receive. This currently stands at 42.5 per cent. I propose to reduce it to 40 per cent., on the clear understanding that the full amount saved is passed by the pools promoters to the Football Trust, and is used by it to improve the safety and comfort of fans at English and Scottish football league grounds.

    I am confident that such an arrangement can be negotiated with the pools promoters and the football authorities. Provided that we do so, the duty will be reduced, in the first instance for five years. At the end of that period we shall review the position again. [Hon. Members :– “You will not.”] At the end of that period, I will review the position again.

    This reduction will yield around £100 million for football over five years. This is in addition to the £75 million that the Football Trust has already said will be available over the next 10 years. These sums represent very large contributions towards making sure that football league clubs can implement the Taylor recommendations and bring their grounds up to the safety standards both we–and they–want to see. Millions of people watch football every year. With better and safer grounds, I hope that many more will join them.

    INCOME TAX

    Next, I turn to income tax, before turning to other matters. I have no change to announced to either the basic or the higher rate of tax. They will remain at 25p and 40p respectively. Notwithstanding that, I reaffirm our objective of moving towards a basic rate of 20p when it is possible to do so.

    I turn now to personal tax allowances. This year, I propose to uprate the main income tax allowances by the statutory indexation factor of 7.7 per cent., rounded up. The personal allowances will rise by £220 to £3,005. The new married couple’s allowance will be set at £1,720, as will the additional personal allowance for single parents and the widow’s bereavement allowance. However, the basic rate limit, the level at which higher rate liability begins, will be unchanged, at £20,700 of taxable income. This means that a married man with a £30,000 mortgage will not begin to pay higher rate tax until his income is over £30,000.

    The allowances for the elderly will similarly be fully uprated in line with inflation. For those aged 65 to 74, the personal allowance goes up by £270 to £3,670 and the married couple’s allowance goes up by £160 to £2,145. For those aged 75 and over, the personal allowance goes up by £280 to £3,820 and the married couple’s allowance will rise to £2,185. The income limit for these allowances will also be fully indexed to £12,300.

    I also propose to raise the inheritance tax threshold by £10,000 to £128,000, in line with inflation.

    The capital gains tax exemption–that is, the amount of real capital gains free of tax in any one year–currently stands at £5,000. However, from April, the introduction of independent taxation means that married couples will be entitled to not one but two exempt amounts rather than having to share one between them as at present. I have therefore decided to leave the exempt amount at £5,000 per person, which effectively gives a married couple an exemption of £10,000 in total.

    I also have to set the scales for the taxation of the private use of company cars. The tax treatment of this benefit remains generous, although less so than previously, as a result of the significant increases in these scales in recent Budgets. I therefore propose an increase–but a smaller one than in previous years–of 20 per cent. The yield from this will be £160 million in 1990-91. There will be no change in the fuel scales.

    In the tax system there is one allowance, the tax allowance for the blind, that, although anomalous, has long been accepted as a proper recognition of the special difficulties faced by blind people. The allowance is modest, but welcome, at £540 a year. I propose to make it less modest and more welcome and to double it. From 6 April, it will stand at £1,080.

    Before I leave income tax, I have a small supply side measure to announce that will help the labour market to work better. We have always made it clear that it is not for the Government to encourage or discourage women with children to go out to work. That is rightly a decision for them to take, and one in which the Government would be wise not to interfere. However, it is undeniable that an increasing number of mothers do want to return to work, and many employers, in private industry and in public services such as health and education, are keen to encourage them to do so. If an employer provides a nursery for his staff in order to recruit and retain skilled people, he can set the full cost against corporation tax. However, any employee who benefits and who earns more than £8,500 a year is required to pay tax on the value of the benefit in kind. Many employers have argued that this is an obstacle to the growth of nursery provision and has created recruitment difficulties for them, and many women see that as a positive disincentive to return to work. For those reasons, therefore, I have decided to exempt the value of workplace nurseries and playgroups from taxation as a benefit in kind. That will take effect from 6 April this year.

    CHARITIES

    I said at the beginning of this speech that this Budget would include incentives both to save and to give. I shall come to saving in a moment, but I want first to deal with giving. I have a number of proposals to help. We are by instinct a generous nation to causes that appeal to us. The tax system already offers a great deal of help to charities. It offers reliefs on their income and on their expenditure, and it provides incentives to encourage charitable giving. There is a relief for charitable covenants that has now been in operation for many years and is worth almost £200 million to charities every year. We have been considering how covenants can be made easier for charities and donors to use, and the Inland Revenue will therefore be issuing new guidance today to simplify them. Since 1987, relief for covenants has been complemented by the payroll giving scheme, a very user-friendly way to relieve regular giving from tax. The scheme has been doing well since its launch, and I now propose to increase the annual limit from £480 to £600. These reliefs are focused mainly on regular giving, which is of great importance to charities. However, they are ill suited to encourage the one-off gift which, for a variety of reasons, many people find more convenient. Over the years, that has been a persistent source of concern to charities. This year, I propose to go some way to meet that concern.

    I propose a gift aid scheme that will, for the first time, give tax relief for large money donations. It is simply not practical to operate a relief for all small one-off gifts–and in any event, I do not wish to undermine regular giving through the payroll scheme and covenants, which are very important to some charities. Therefore, this scheme applies to larger donations.

    The lower qualifying limit for gift aid will therefore be £600 per donation–the new ceiling for payroll giving. The relief will be available on one-off gifts up to an annual ceiling of £5 million per individual donor. The tax relief will be reclaimable by the charity, and payable to it at basic rate. As with covenants, the donor will get any higher rate tax relief that is due direct from the tax office.

    This relief, which will apply to gifts by both individuals and companies, will come into operation from 1 October this year. I am confident that it will maintain and strengthen the growth of charitable giving, and I very much hope that charities will promote it actively. It will, of course, be open to the whole range of charities, from social causes to those whose activities are devoted to the arts.

    I have a further measure to help charities. This is a package of value added tax reliefs, giving help especially to organisations engaged in sea rescue, medical care and research. These will come into effect on 1 May and give an additional benefit of about £5 million a year to charitable work. Full details are set out in a Customs and Excise press release issued today.

    SAVINGS

    I now turn to the taxation of savings, where I have a number of measures to announce. As I do so, I am conscious that the majority of personal savings are the fruits of earnings that have already been taxed.

    I start with saving in shares. The development of the personal equity plan, which stands to the immense credit of my right hon. Friend, the Member for Blaby (Mr. Lawson), has been an important boost for share ownership. I am pleased to report to the House that last year was a record one for PEPs, with 300,000 plans taken out, to the value of some £750 million. To build on this success, I propose to raise the overall annual limit on investment in PEPs by a quarter, from £4,800 to £6,000. Within that, the annual limit on investment in unit and investment trusts will be increased by the same percentage to £3,000.

    I am also sympathetic to the problems that investment and unit trusts face in qualifying for PEP treatment. This arises from the requirement that 75 per cent. of their portfolio should be invested in ordinary United Kingdom equities. I propose therefore to relax this rule to 50 per cent. I also propose to raise the PEP limit for those trusts that do not satisfy this rule from the present £750 to £900.

    Last year, my right hon. Friend put employee share ownership plans, or ESOPs as they are known, on the statute book. ESOPs are a vehicle for giving employees a direct stake in the business for which they work. They are an attractive option and deserve further encouragement. One impediment to their growth has been that the transfer of shares to the work force can mean that the company owner faces an immediate tax charge. To prevent this, I propose to introduce a rollover relief from capital gains tax for sales of shares to ESOPs. I believe that this will remove an obstacle to their development and give this form of employee share ownership the fillip that it deserves.

    In a moment, I will turn to some new and significant tax changes for savers, but first, I wish to discuss a reform which was announced in the 1988 Budget and which comes into effect next month–independent taxation for women. There is too little understanding yet of what this change will mean, but it will fundamentally change the financial affairs of women.

    At present, the taxation of married women’s income is wholly inconsistent with their role in society. In tax law, their income is still considered to belong to their husbands. The effect of this is twofold : it denies married women any privacy or independence in tax matters, and too often it results in heavier taxation than is fair. It is time for the system to go, and go it will from April. In future, a husband and wife will be taxed entirely separately. Every married woman will have a tax allowance of her own to set against her income–whether this income is from earnings, pension or savings. Three and three quarter million people will gain, of whom two million have incomes of less than £5, 000 a year. One million elderly married couples will pay less tax, and 200,000 pensioner couples will be taken out of tax altogether. No one will be sorry to see the old system go. One of its worst features was its treatment of the savings of married women. Whether they had other income or not, the interest on their savings was added to their husband’s income and taxed at his rate. This was a clear penalty on thrift. From April, all that will end. This may well be the area where the reform has its greatest effect and will be most welcomed.

    However, independent taxation has thrown into sharp relief another aspect of the tax system that affects all savers, and which no longer deserves to survive.

    Some women will see the benefit of independent taxation automatically, if they have their money invested in national savings, or other accounts which pay interest gross of tax, but many women with only small savings prefer to save with high street banks or building societies, and so, frankly, do many other small savers. For all these savers, income tax–or rather, a proxy for it, called the composite rate–is deducted before the interest ever gets to the saver, and whether or not the saver is liable to pay tax.

    Composite rate tax was introduced originally in 1894, and put on the statute book in 1951. It currently stands at just under 22 per cent. It is deducted at source. It cannot be reclaimed in any circumstances. This means that basic rate taxpayers gain by about 3 per cent.–the difference between the composite rate and the basic rate of income tax, which is what they should pay. And it means that non-taxpayers are worse off by 22 per cent.

    The attraction of composite rate has always been that it allows small amounts of tax to be collected with ease from very large numbers of people. It is very convenient and very cost-effective, but the fact remains that, with composite rate tax, we tax people on low incomes who should not be taxed.

    It has, of course, always been possible for these people to avoid taxation entirely, by saving in accounts that pay interest gross or tax-free, or where tax can be reclaimed, but the convenience of using banks and building societies has meant that many of them have not done so.

    The scale of the problem is compelling. Once independent taxation is implemented, there will be 14 million people–nearly one quarter of the population–who have savings income that does not merit taxation, but which will be taxed under present legislation. They include some 5 million married women with little or no other income of their own, 4 million pensioners, 2.5 million other adults, and 2.5 million children with small savings accounts–often funded with small gifts of money from grandparents, or savings from pocket money.

    There is no way out of this problem other than to abolish composite rate tax entirely. This I propose to do with effect from 6 April 1991, the earliest practicable date. From then on, tax will fall on those who should pay it, and will not fall on those who should not pay it. We shall discuss with the banks and building societies how to effect this enormous organisational change. I envisage a scheme of self-certification that will allow non-taxpayers to be paid their interest without deduction of tax. For other savers, tax will continue to be deducted at source, but at basic rate. However, unlike composite rate tax, any tax deducted will be reclaimable by any non- taxpayers who, for any reason, may not have been able to self-certify for gross payment.

    This change will significantly reduce the amount of tax paid by millions of married women, pensioners, children and others with small savings, and by removing the penalty of composite rate tax, it will play an important part in encouraging the savings habit. Meanwhile, the Department of National Savings also has a part to play in encouraging the savings habit. I am therefore announcing today a 1 per cent. increase in the interest rates paid on national savings investment account and income bonds, where interest is already paid gross. This too will help encourage saving, particularly by non-taxpayers.

    However, as well as removing the tax impost for non-taxpayers, I wish to do more to encourage the saving habit among taxpayers–all of them.

    In the 11 years that we have been in office, a series of Budgets have removed penal rates of tax, abolished the investment income surcharge and introduced important new schemes to encourage saving and investment. I intend now to build further on those measures, for everyone, and that means going beyond the incentives to saving that we have built up so far. These schemes have been immensely successful in spreading share ownership, and will continue to be so in the future, but I now want to extend savings incentives to the mass of ordinary taxpaying savers–and potential savers– who prefer to put their money in the familiar security of high street banks and building societies.

    My next measure is addressed precisely to them. I propose to introduce a wholly new tax incentive which will reward saving and encourage people to build up a stock of capital. The scheme will work as follows. Every adult will be entitled to one tax-exempt special savings account, TESSA for short. All commercial banks or building societies will be able to offer such an account. The essence of the scheme is to encourage people to save regularly over a five-year period. The incentive for them to do so is that all the interest earned on their capital will be entirely free of tax, provided only that the capital itself is left undisturbed over the five- year period.

    The annual limit on the amount that can be invested will be £1,800 or £150 a month. In the first year, anyone who has capital that they are willing to tie up for longer can put this money in their account from the outset, up to a limit of £3,000, but the overall limit of £9,000 for the whole plan applies nonetheless.

    To cope with the circumstances of many small savers–particularly pensioners–who use the interest on their savings for their everyday expenses, it will be possible to withdraw interest as it accrues, but only up to the net-of-tax level. At the end of the five years, the depositor then gets a bonus representing the money which would otherwise have gone in tax. The depositor will get this provided none of the capital has been withdrawn before the five years is up. They can, of course, withdraw the capital at any time, but without tax relief.

    This scheme is convenient, flexible and simple. It extends a form of PEP treatment to ordinary savings. It caters for those who want to save monthly, annually, or in irregular amounts. It represents a substantial incentive to save, and I am confident that it will play its part in reviving the culture of thrift. I also believe that it is both desirable and fair to reduce tax on small savings.

    This new relief will be available from next January. Its cost will depend on take-up, but could be at least £200 million in the first full year, and rising thereafter.

    This Budget has contained a whole range of savings incentives. It has done so because I believe it is economically right to encourage savings, and because I believe also that it is socially right–not least because of the independence and security it offers to savers as they build up capital of their own. However, there is little point in encouraging savings if we leave in the system an over-severe penalty for doing so. I turn, therefore, to the social security system and to what has become known as the capital rule.

    As the House knows, people with capital over £3,000 start to have their benefits reduced, and those with more than a certain level of savings –£6,000 in the case of income support and family credit and £8,000 in the case of housing benefit and community charge benefit– become completely ineligible for all means-tested benefits, however low their incomes.

    There must, of course, be some upper limits above which help is no longer given, but the present limits are widely resented as a penalty on thrift and self-provision. [Interruption]. This is particularly so in the case of elderly people with some capital but only modest incomes. They believe it is unfair that they must use the money carefully saved during their working lives while others, less provident, have immediate access to the benefit system.

    I have therefore reviewed the present limits with my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Social Security, and we have decided that they should be raised. The limit for income support and family credit, where the stress is less great, will rise from £6,000 to £8,000, but the problem is most acute for those whose savings disqualify them from housing benefit and from community charge benefit. [Interruption]. I propose therefore, to double the capital cut-off for both these benefits, from £8,000 to £16,000–for housing benefit and for community charge. This new limit will be of particular help to couples, but it will also apply to single people and therefore extend help to some widows and widowers who would otherwise continue to be excluded.

    This measure will benefit–

    Mr. Donald Dewar (Glasgow, Garscadden) rose–

    Mr. Major : No.

    Hon. Members : Give way.

    Mr. Deputy Speaker : Order. Clearly, the Chancellor is not giving way.

    Mr. Dewar rose–

    Several Hon. Members rose–

    Mr. Dewar : On a point of order, Mr. Deputy Speaker. I am sorry to interrupt, but an important concession is being announced at the beginning of the introduction of the poll tax system in England and Wales. The system has been running for over a year in Scotland–

    Mr. Deputy Speaker : That is clearly not a point of order for the Chair. Mr. Chancellor of the Exchequer.

    Mr. Major : This measure–[Hon. Members :– “Answer.”]–will benefit about a quarter of a million people, two thirds of them–

    Mr. Dick Douglas (Dunfermline, West) : On a point of order, Mr. Deputy Speaker. You are in the Chair, as Chairman of Ways and Means. Important tax concessions and changes are being made. A principle of taxation in this country–

    Mr. Deputy Speaker : Order. The hon. Gentleman knows that that is not a point of order for me to deal with. I am anxious to hear what the Chancellor has to say.

    Mr. Major : This measure will benefit around a quarter of a million people, two thirds of them pensioners who are at present–

    Mr. Brian Wilson (Cunninghame, North) : On a point of order, Mr. Deputy Speaker.

    Mr. Deputy Speaker : I very much hope that it is. It does the House’s reputation little good to have the Chancellor’s speech interrupted by points of order which are not matters for the Chair.

    Mr. Wilson : It is precisely in the interest of the House’s reputation that I ask, on a point of order, whether the Chancellor will make clear immediately whether the concessions that he has announced will be retrospectively applied to Scotland.

    Mr. Deputy Speaker : Order. That is not a matter for the Chair. Points of order must be for me and not for Ministers.

    Mr. Major : This measure will benefit around a quarter of a million people, two thirds of them pensioners who are at present wholly excluded from benefit–

    Mr. Jim Sillars (Glasgow, Govan) : On a point of order, Mr. Deputy Speaker. Given that many of us, especially Opposition Members, were unable to hear what the Chancellor said because of the noise, would it be in order to get him to repeat the last two passages to see whether that tax concession will be retrospective in Scotland, which got the poll tax a year earlier?

    Mr. Deputy Speaker : Order. I am not going to listen to any more bogus points of order. I hope that the hon. Gentleman shares my anxiety to hear what the Chancellor has to say.

    Mr. Major : For the avoidance of doubt, Mr. Deputy Speaker, I shall repeat that this measure will benefit around a quarter of a million people, two thirds of them pensioners who are at present wholly excluded from benefit. The total cost will be £120 million a year, which will be met from the reserve and will not increase the public expenditure totals.

    To avoid delay, my right hon. Friend is laying the necessary regulations today– [Interruption]. –so that the limits will be increased when benefits are uprated at the beginning of April. He will discuss the operational implications of this change with local authorities immediately.

    PERORATION

    This is a saver’s Budget. It takes no risks with inflation. It further strengthens the public finances. It helps the less well-off. It gives women a better deal. It offers help to charities and sport, and it reduces the tax burden on growing companies– [Interruption].

    Several Hon. Members rose–

    Mr. Deputy Speaker : Order.

    Mr. Major : It is the right Budget for this year, and it sets the right course for the ’90s. I commend it to the House, and the country.

  • Mr Major’s Written Parliamentary Answer on Labour Statistics – 8 June 1989

    Below is the text of Mr Major’s written Parliamentary Answer on Labour Statistics on 8th June 1989.


    Mr. Couchman To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer by how much employment in the United Kingdom has risen since 1983.

    Mr. Charles Wardle To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer by how much employment in the United Kingdom has risen since 1983.

    Mr. Summerson To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer by how much employment in the United Kingdom has risen since 1983.

    Mr. Cash To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer by how much employment in the United Kingdom has risen since 1983.

    Mr. Major Total employment in the United Kingdom has increased by 2,951,000 since March 1983.

    Mr. Stevens To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer how many people are now registered as self-employed; and what was the comparable figure in 1979.

    Mr. Andrew Mitchell To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer how many people are now registered as self-employed; and what was the comparable figure in 1979.

    Mr. Major In December 1988 3,048,000 people were self-employed in the United Kingdom compared with 1,906,000 in June 1979, an increase of 60 per cent.

    Mr. Thorne To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer for how many months adult unemployment has fallen continuously in the United Kingdom.

    Mr. Major Unemployment in the United Kingdom has fallen for 33 months in succession.