Category: 2015-

  • Sir John Major’s Interview with the Independent – 26 June 2026

    Sir John Major’s interview with the Independent on 26 June 2026 to mark ten years since the Brexit vote.


  • Sir John Major’s Interview on BBC’s Newsnight – 1 May 2026

    The interview with Sir John Major broadcast by BBC Newsnight on 1 May 2026.



    Matt Chorley: Sir John Major was born on 29 March 1943 to Gwen, a librarian and part-time dance teacher, and Tom Major-Ball, a former trapeze artist and music hall performer who later ran a successful garden ornaments business. Young John underperformed at school in Brixton, leaving with just three O-Levels. But a chance meeting with his local MP led him into politics. He became a Conservative MP in Margaret Thatcher’s 1979 landslide victory, then rose through the ranks pretty quickly to become first Foreign Secretary and then Chancellor. Within 15 months of taking his first great office of state, he reached the greatest, replacing Margaret Thatcher as Prime Minister in November 1990 at the age of 47. He went on to win the 1992 election with the most votes ever recorded for a British political party before losing to Tony Blair’s New Labour landslide in 1997.

    I’m delighted Sir John joins me now. It’s great to see you. Thank you. Can you take us back to that church fete, the turning point, it seems, the moment where you discovered politics?

    Sir John Major: Well, I discovered it before that. I read a lot of history and politics always fascinated me. I remember the church fete very well. The vicar was a delightful man. So was his daughter. We were friends. I was at the church fete and the local Labour Member of Parliament, Colonel Lipton, Marcus Lipton, who had been there since 1945, attended every church fete in the constituency. I don’t think church fetes were legitimate unless Marcus was there.

    He talked to me and we talked about politics. He must have realised that I naturally moved to the right of centre rather than the left of centre. But he saw I was interested and he kindly offered me some seats in the gallery in order to watch Parliament in session. I did that and I saw a small part of a very boring part of the year really, but not for me. I was thrilled. It was the debate on the Budget in the mid-1950s and I saw on the benches Iain Macleod, Harold Macmillan was there, Rab Butler was there for a brief time. When I walked into that building, it reached out and grabbed me. When I left, I thought, this is where I wish to be, and my mind never moved away from that.

    Matt Chorley: It didn’t focus you on your schoolwork, though. You clearly didn’t think, “I need to knuckle down if I want to get into the House of Commons.” In fact, I was looking, you didn’t do all that well at school. You were one of only eight Prime Ministers ever not to go to university, a grammar school boy, not privately educated. Do you think that now we’d call that a great backstory, but did you feel like that held you back in your pursuit of getting into politics?

    Sir John Major: Of course it did. Absolutely. And it was very stupid. The background to that is not straightforward. My father was 65 when I was born. When I was 10 or 11 and went to Rutlish, having passed the 11-plus, he was very sick and also nearly blind with cataracts. He had lost all our money. We didn’t have much, but what we had he had lost in a business venture. So we moved from a bungalow in Worcester Park to two rooms, four storeys up, in an old Victorian house in Brixton. That is where we lived.

    Matt Chorley: Is it still there?

    Sir John Major: It is. It’s still there. It’s hardly changed. We lived in just the two rooms. There was nowhere there to study. They insisted that I stayed at Rutlish, which was at Wimbledon, so I had to travel back and forth from Brixton to Wimbledon every day. I was pretty rebellious at school. I didn’t like it. I wasn’t comfortable there. I felt alienated by life. It was extremely stupid. So I just didn’t work, except at the things that interested me, which were mainly history and English. The result of that was a lamentable record at school and the need to get up at 05.00 each morning after I left school aged 16, studying, taking more O levels and a banking degree and other matters.

    Matt Chorley: These days, the House of Commons is very different to the House of Commons that you entered. Fewer trade unionists in the Labour Party, fewer business people in the Conservative Party and so on. A lot has changed. Do you think that has changed for the better?

    Sir John Major: No, I don’t. I certainly don’t. If you take both parties, if you look at the Labour Party, and I have no animosity against the Labour Party. I grew up in a Labour area. I didn’t agree with their policies, but I saw decent men trying to do a decent job on Lambeth Council.

    I looked at the Labour Party when I got into the House of Commons and there were lots of ordinary, everyday people, people without money, without privilege, working-class people who really knew their constituents. They may not have got degrees in English, but my goodness, they knew how their constituents lived. They cared about that and they represented that in the House of Commons. That doesn’t happen in the Labour Party now. They are much younger, much better educated and, in my judgement, much less close to their constituents than their predecessors were.

    You can see it on the Conservative side. Where are the businessmen? Where are the soldiers? Where are the people who would have been a staple part of the party in the 1950s, 60s and 70s? They are very sparse now on the Conservative benches. There has been a change in nature and I think that is partly because of the way in which politics is disregarded by so many people these days. Many of the people who would be a very happy addition to Parliament simply will not contemplate going into politics. I hear that theme again and again and again. There are many reasons for it, which we both know and I think the whole world knows, but it is a loss to Parliament in my view.

    Matt Chorley: Would the John Major of when you first went into politics, from your background and experience, consider going into politics now?

    Sir John Major: I couldn’t not do so. I am out of politics now and I had no regrets about leaving politics when I was in my early 50s. No regrets whatsoever. But there are moments when I see things happening and I wish I was still there, because I would have a voice to point out things that I had seen being done before and I know they went wrong. Experience and a long memory, an historic memory, in Parliament is very useful. It can stop many mistakes being made. So there are moments when I wish I was back in politics, but they are fleeting moments and they are entirely overridden by the fact I couldn’t take the divorce if I were still in politics.

    Matt Chorley: Norma would have something to say?

    Sir John Major: Norma would have something to say. And so would my children.

    Matt Chorley: Let’s talk about this. You become an MP and most people, when they become an MP, even if they only say it to themselves at night, probably privately harbour the idea that one day they might be called upon to become Prime Minister. But it happens to you in 1990. The Conservatives had been trailing in the polls for months. Geoffrey Howe’s devastating speech to Margaret Thatcher leads to Michael Heseltine’s challenge. You, though, Sir John, miss much of the drama because for some time you had been nursing a painful wisdom tooth and you were under the dentist’s anaesthetic while everyone else was plotting. Yet you wake up, you are coming round from the anaesthetic and the conversation almost immediately turns, with Norma and your daughter Elizabeth, to the prospect of you possibly throwing your hat in the ring. Was it the drugs?

    Sir John Major: Well, you may say so. Others may have wished so. No, it wasn’t. The tooth has become a subject of myth over many years, with people saying he didn’t have a tooth problem at all, he was just getting out of the way and plotting, which is entirely absurd. If anyone would care to go to the hospital in Essex, I had the wisdom tooth out under full anaesthetic. It was an abscess under a wisdom tooth that I had been nursing for a couple of months. I had a hospital appointment. I wasn’t going to cancel it. I had suffered from that enough. I didn’t anticipate, frankly, the degree of drama with Michael’s challenge to Margaret.

    But when Margaret decided she wasn’t going to stand, I was approached by a lot of people to see whether I would stand. I hadn’t been contemplating it. I can honestly say that. My daughter was coming up to A levels, my son to O levels. I had just got the job I really wanted in politics, which was Chancellor. I can honestly say, hand on heart, that I was not contemplating being Prime Minister.

    But I was approached by a number of people. I then learned that some people had been canvassing on my behalf. I said to my parliamentary private secretary, “Look, I don’t know how many votes. I don’t want to humiliate myself by getting a few votes.” He was a very good listener, one of those rare politicians who listens rather than talks, and he said, “Well, I think I can guarantee you 150 votes if you stand. Dare you say no to that?” I couldn’t really.

    I remembered the old Iain Macleod maxim. It was Macleod as much as any individual politician who took me into politics. He was a magnificent orator, not just in how he spoke but what he said. He once said, “If the ball comes out of the ruck, you grab it. It may never come out again.” That was pretty much how I felt. I was confident that I wasn’t going to be humiliated, so I decided I would stand.

    Matt Chorley: You write in your memoirs that for large parts of that period, actually right up until almost the moment you won, you were stuffed with painkillers. It was an extraordinary moment, with you dealing with this pain in your mouth while each day getting closer to becoming Prime Minister.

    Sir John Major: Yes. The campaign only lasted a week and it was the best-natured campaign I think I have seen in all my years in politics, between Michael Heseltine, Douglas Hurd and myself. We all knew one another extremely well. I was particularly close to Douglas Hurd. I didn’t know Michael quite so well. It only lasted a week.

    As the campaign began, the painkillers were winning over the pain quite comfortably, so we sailed through the week’s campaigning. It wasn’t a difficult week of campaigning because we weren’t in the business of slagging off one another. We had worked together in the past, we would work together in the future. Whatever had happened, the three of us would have been together in the Cabinet. So it was a very good-natured campaign and it went quickly.

    Matt Chorley: Michael Heseltine has, of course, concluded that he who wields the knife doesn’t wear the crown. If you are the person who leaps first, you end up not getting the top job. Do you think he is right about that? Are there lessons for today?

    Sir John Major: I’m not entirely sure about that. Lloyd George might argue to the contrary, and so might others. I think it can be a disadvantage. It depends on the nature of the relationship between the departing Prime Minister and the wielder of the knife.

    Matt Chorley: Tell me about that moment when you become Prime Minister. You go to the Palace. You had obviously been into Number 10 before, but it is very different going as a minister than it is as Prime Minister. What is going through your mind during the drive?

    Sir John Major: Several things really. Firstly, I wondered how this ceremony goes. Does kissing hands mean literally? It doesn’t. It means figuratively. What exactly are we going to talk about? So I was thinking about the Queen and how that would work out.

    A different compartment of my mind was thinking about what I was going to say when I got back to the doorstep. That was certainly occupying my mind. Two other things were occupying my mind. A new Prime Minister within two years of an election: we were going to have to have some Cabinet changes, and that was going to be awkward. I had only been in a Cabinet for three years. I was younger than most of the Cabinet. I had been there less time than most of the Cabinet. I was going to have to say to very senior people who had been there much longer than me that it was time to go and to bring some new blood into the Cabinet. Nobody likes destroying someone’s career. Only sadists like that.

    Beyond that, I was very conscious of the problems we faced. You touched on some of them. The party was deeply split on the European Union, deeply. I felt as though I was standing on either side of a widening chasm. The poll tax was still around and had to be destroyed. Michael Heseltine had to come back into the Cabinet. Those last two points were bound inevitably to upset Margaret Thatcher: her poll tax, I was going to have to abolish it; and her assassin, as she saw Michael, was going to have to come into the Cabinet. So one could see immediately that there were going to be problems that lay ahead. It was only a short ride from Downing Street to Buckingham Palace, but I remember very plainly, almost as though different components of the mind were thinking of these things.

    Matt Chorley: It is often said that being Prime Minister is a lonely job because so few people have been there and done it. When you were there, still alive were former Prime Ministers Margaret Thatcher, Jim Callaghan, Harold Wilson, Ted Heath and Alec Douglas-Home. Were you able to reach out? Clearly the relationship with Margaret was difficult because of the circumstances of you becoming Prime Minister. Is there a gang of former Prime Ministers who all talk to each other?

    Sir John Major: I had no difficulty with the other Prime Ministers at all. The one who from time to time was most helpful was Jim Callaghan, who had a similar background to me and understood the difficulties. He understood the restraints in 1990s society, and from time to time he was very helpful. Harold Wilson by then was clearly ill, and when I talked to him we met in the corridors and discussed Huddersfield Town Football Club, of which Harold was a tremendous supporter.

    So I had no difficulties there. When I met Margaret, there was never any difficulty. The first time I met her was at a by-election in 1978 in Berwick and East Lothian, which we lost. I was very impressed, because it was thought we were going to win the by-election. She had been there for a morning and came in and talked to me just after lunch, and she knew we were going to lose it. Her sensitive political antennae had grasped the fact that it wasn’t right, and I was hugely impressed by that.

    I had a very good relationship with her. We had a furious fight when I was a young whip. We disagreed severely about something and everyone thought my career was over. The next day she came and sat next to me on the bench and said, “Well, we’d better regroup and discuss these matters again.” Three weeks later she gave me a job in government. I remember her saying to me when she gave it to me, “It’s the job I started with. If you learn about social security, you’ll be better equipped than most of the parliamentary party for the future.”

    Matt Chorley: You mentioned that when you became Prime Minister, you knew there was a general election certainly within two years. In that election in 1992, there was an expectation that Labour were going to win it under Neil Kinnock.

    Sir John Major: More than an expectation. It was almost written into the stars.

    Matt Chorley: What was it for you? There has been endless discussion: was it the Sheffield rally, was it the soapbox? What was it for you?

    Sir John Major: I never quite agreed with the way the opinion polls were going all the way through the campaign. It may simply have been my naivety, but everywhere I went I got a very large and warm welcome. Everywhere. There was no hostility. I was surprised about that. We had been in power for 11 years and people were plainly tired of the problems over the poll tax and Europe, and yet there was an immensely warm reception everywhere I went.

    So I had this blind faith that, having come from where I did to where I was, it wasn’t going to end that quickly. I thought throughout the campaign that we would win. We had a very large lead in votes, you may recall. It was only a slender lead of 21 in seats, but we had a seven per cent lead in votes. We should have had a majority of 70 or so if the votes had been distributed, but of course they weren’t.

    Matt Chorley: The record for any party in a general election still stands. Given the way our politics is going, with more and more parties, do you think that record will ever be broken?

    Sir John Major: Ever is a long time. But I don’t think it is going to be broken in the near future, because there is going to be a greater dispersal of votes, which raises a whole series of other questions.

    Matt Chorley: Soon after that 1992 election you discussed with Chris Patten the idea that you had stretched the elastic and defied expectations. You then spend the next five years assuming that you wouldn’t win in 1997. I wondered whether it would be better for governments if they behaved like they weren’t going to win and did what they thought was right by the country, rather than chasing percentage points in the polls.

    Sir John Major: There was a bit of that. It sounds rather gallant to say you proceed entirely on that basis. Of course we wanted to win the election. But we managed to find a way of losing it quite comprehensively, and we had a lot of assistance from my colleagues in doing so.

    For Europe, there was a changing of the guard in 1992. The elderly members who had been in the war or soon after and in the services were very pro-European in the Conservative Party because they never wanted to see a European war again. A lot of them retired in 1992 and were replaced by much younger and more recently baked Conservatives who had a much more Eurosceptic view. So the huge majority for Europe in the Conservative Party that existed in 1991 had gone in 1992. We faced a completely different parliamentary party. Although we had a majority of 21 nominally, on European matters we barely had a majority at all. Very soon, with by-elections, that bare majority was whittled away.

    Matt Chorley: Was it then, in 1992, that the seeds of Brexit were sown in that generational shift in the Conservative Party?

    Sir John Major: They were there before. Going right back to Enoch Powell and others, there were people who were, let me say, unenthusiastic, which would be a kind way of putting it, about Europe. But it was in the 1990s that the numbers began to grow. They began to grow because of opposition to the Maastricht Treaty, and that was very odd. You may say, why is it odd? Because the Maastricht Treaty did all sorts of extraordinary things, but every one of those things was actually preordained in the 1986 Single European Act. We had signed up to a whole range of things that were in the Maastricht Treaty, and the very people who had signed up to that treaty now opposed it, and opposed it violently. The new members followed them, and they became more and more of a thorn in the side.

    Matt Chorley: In 1993, you were caught on camera calling some of your Eurosceptic Cabinet ministers “bastards”. Do you have any regrets about that?

    Sir John Major: I remember that very well. It was a BBC feed that was left on when I was speaking privately to a single person, and the feed crept under the door and they chose to use it. Of course I shouldn’t have said that. My only excuse is that it was true.

    Matt Chorley: As the pressure built over time and you faced more criticism, in 1995 you pushed what many thought was the nuclear button and challenged your opponents to put up or shut up. One of our listeners, Mike, got in touch and said, “My question to John Major would be: what would you do if you were in Keir Starmer’s shoes, assuming local elections are bad as well? Would you advise doing what you did, put up or shut up, or is this a case of different party, different circumstances, different times?”

    Sir John Major: I think the circumstances are very different and the times are very different. Enough has been said by enough people about that particular issue. I don’t really wish to add to it.

    Matt Chorley: Did you think you would win when you did that back in the 1990s?

    Sir John Major: I wasn’t sure. I was prepared for the fact that I might have to resign. I didn’t think I was going to be defeated in the ballot, but I had put in a sealed envelope the number of votes I had to have in order, in my mind, to credibly stay. We exceeded that number by three votes. So it was very close. Four votes less and I would have resigned.

    Matt Chorley: When you weren’t dealing with your own MPs, you were dealing with Tony Blair in the latter stages across the despatch box. Prime Minister’s Questions is the part of politics that most people see on the news, and he was pretty remorseless to you during PMQs. “I lead my party. He follows his.” Calling it “weak, weak, weak”. Did any part of you enjoy Prime Minister’s Questions?

    Sir John Major: It was a very good line. I don’t know who wrote it for Tony, but it was extremely good. If I were in his position, I might have done exactly the same thing, because I was in a position where, whatever I did, half the party would disagree with it. I was trying to bring the party together. My fear from the moment I became Prime Minister was that the European issue could break the Conservative Party apart, as free trade had done in the past. That was very inhibiting as to what you could do, and it provided Tony with that opening.

    Matt Chorley: You also faced a lot of hostility from the media during that period.

    Sir John Major: Surely not.

    Matt Chorley: It is said, and I have interviewed people who worked with you at the time, that there was a feeling among some that you focused too much on the media, that you read the papers too closely. With the benefit of hindsight, do you think they were right?

    Sir John Major: Possibly. But it’s difficult to know what you’re facing unless you hear about it and read about it. It is very easy to say. I seem to recall it was Franklin Roosevelt who read 18 newspapers a day, something of that sort. Yes, I suppose you could say I wasted too much time reading things that were unnecessary, but you needed to be prepared. If you are suddenly asked a question and you don’t know why the question has come, you could be in a very difficult situation.

    Senior politicians face that today with social media. They may be going around the country, they’ll be stopped, they’ll be asked a question about an event that has happened on the other side of the world, and they don’t know of the event. Sometimes they are foolish enough to commit themselves and get themselves into a great deal of difficulty.

    Matt Chorley: I was thinking about the way that everything has sped up, rolling news and then social media. Thinking of a drama like Black Wednesday, do you think you could have survived Black Wednesday in a world of social media, with the sort of frenzy that people whip themselves up into?

    Sir John Major: It could hardly have been worse if social media had been there. There is a great deal behind that. Many of the myths in it still survive, but it was extremely difficult. It lingered a long time and it marked us.

    There were two things about Black Wednesday really. Firstly, when we were forced out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism after a market turmoil that began in northern Europe, not with us, and injudicious remarks by the governor of the Bundesbank led them to concentrate on sterling, which was very unhelpful indeed.

    When we were forced out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism, I was already in discussion with the policy unit about how we could leave it, because its purpose had been to bring down inflation, and it had done that. Many people hated the ERM because they thought it was a stepping stone to the euro and that we were going to join the single currency. That was never going to happen while I was there. I wasn’t going to join the single currency. We weren’t ready for it. Parliament wouldn’t have accepted it and I didn’t like it anyway.

    We went into the Exchange Rate Mechanism because we had failed to get inflation down with every other policy. We and our predecessors, in Margaret’s time, in Ted’s time, in Jim Callaghan’s time, in Harold Wilson’s time, had seen inflation come back again and again and destroy parties. I was determined that we would stick with the ERM until we had beaten inflation. And we did. We enjoyed the benefit of that right up to about 2010. So the incoming Labour government inherited a low-inflationary position and a very good economy in 1997.

    But because we had fallen out of the ERM, that masked the changes in the economy and the changes in interest rates. We got none of the credit a government would normally have got for that simply because we were thought to have been incompetent because we were forced out of the ERM.

    Matt Chorley: So it was a political impact rather than an economic catastrophe?

    Sir John Major: It was a political catastrophe, but it wasn’t an economic catastrophe. The economy could then sustain leaving the ERM. The difficulty was how to get out without the markets thinking you were weakening the anti-inflationary policy. That was the difficulty that we didn’t solve. So when we were thrown out, it was catastrophic politically, but it had done its job.

    I felt so strongly about inflation, and I will put it in this personal way because it is how I felt. When we were living in those two rooms, there was barely a week when the money did not run out before the week. I saw my mother go downstairs and borrow money to see us through the week, then desperately try and find some way to pay it back, then repeat the exercise week after week after week. I knew what that was like, and I knew that was what inflation did not just to my family but to families all over the country. I hated inflation with a passion, and I would rather have been forced out of government and out of politics than have given up on the anti-inflationary programme. That was the ERM.

    The other point I would make about it is that with all my critics, I remember even the Daily Telegraph had banner headlines saying “At last we’re going to have some economic discipline” on the day I went in. It is amazing how successes have many fathers and failures are orphans.

    Matt Chorley: Can I ask you about Spitting Image? Did you watch Spitting Image? We had various questions sent in from people asking about you being portrayed as the grey man of politics, despite having the background you came from, winning a general election and beating older politicians.

    Sir John Major: Politics is a rough old trade. That was originally a joke across the tea room by a friend of mine when my hair started to go grey when I was about 48. That is where it came from. It was a very useful way to portray something quite different and it was used mercilessly, because politics is sometimes a rather fierce trade. But you know that when you go into it. There’s no point crying over it.

    Matt Chorley: Did you watch it at the time?

    Sir John Major: I stopped watching it when I saw the portrayals of Norman Tebbit and Margaret Thatcher, which I thought were downright crude. So I did watch it occasionally, but when I began to feature in it in an indelicate way, I thought the same people who told me I ought not to read the newspapers now said, “Why didn’t you watch Spitting Image?”

    Matt Chorley: Do you watch any political TV shows? The Thick of It, Yes Minister, or was it all a bit too much like work?

    Sir John Major: The only one I watched was Yes Minister, which I thought was pure genius. It got so close to a parody of reality. I didn’t think The Thick of It quite achieved that. I didn’t watch that very much.

    Matt Chorley: Can I ask you about the job of being Prime Minister and how you approached it? Since you were there, we have had seven or eight Prime Ministers. Is it getting harder?

    Sir John Major: In some ways, yes. It is certainly getting harder because of the external pressure of social media. That is undoubtedly getting harder. On the other hand, newspapers matter less than they did politically. They are not as powerful as they were in the 70s, 80s and 90s.

    The problems are wider today, and there seems to be a shorter time frame in which people feel they can deal with problems and push them aside. Most of the big problems we have in this country at the moment are long-term problems. How are we going to cope with an ever-increasing number of elderly people who will live longer and need more medicine and more expensive medicine? How are we going to prepare for that? How are we going to prepare for people having their own pensions when the Government keeps producing measures that will reduce the private pensions that people actually earn and save for in their own lifetime? They are forcing more people into state assistance when they retire by the policies they are following now. That is not only wrong, it is plain stupid.

    Then there are other things like climate change. Some people deny climate change. I don’t know what planet they are living on. When they say, “I don’t believe in climate change”, it’s a cop-out. It means they needn’t put the money towards the policy and they can spend it on something else that is more politically popular. But I only have to look at my own garden. The daffodils come up six weeks earlier. The climate is different. The ice caps are not in my garden, by the way, but the ice caps are melting and changing the positions inside the oceans. There are more hurricanes. There are much more extreme weather events. The climate is changing.

    Those people who say, “Let’s push it back a bit. Let’s not do anything. Let’s do it a little more slowly so we can spend a little money on something else” are saying to my children, your children and their grandchildren, “Tough luck, chaps. We’re not only leaving you a difficult economy with too many old people that you can’t afford to care for. We’re going to leave you with climate change that we should have put right for you and didn’t.”

    The first role of any government, in my view, is to leave something better for the next generation than your generation inherited. This is not done now. The youngsters of today are inheriting a more difficult world and a less favourable world than my generation, and their successors may be in exactly the same position unless we now begin to take seriously those very long-term problems.

    I’m sorry that’s a long, tedious answer, but I feel very strongly that it demeans politics. You are not there as a politician as if it is a game show. You are not there just to provide fodder for the media and project your own career. You are there to deal with problems that ordinary people elect you to deal with. We are a representative democracy. We send representatives to Parliament to make sure our lives are better. If you ignore and deny those issues, our lives will not get better and those Parliaments will have failed.

    Matt Chorley: Some of those issues you are talking about, changes to pensions and so on, are unfolding under the Labour Government. But some of the things, climate change and net zero, those are ideas which are taking hold in the Conservative Party as well.

    Sir John Major: I am not making a point against any one government. It has been going on for quite a long time. Let me put it to you in this one question. You know politics better than most people, I would guess. When did you last hear a senior politician deliver a detailed lecture about the problems we face and what we must do to make those problems better over the next 30 years? Can you remember such a speech?

    Matt Chorley: Not off the top of my head.

    Sir John Major: No, neither can I. Don’t you think the people out there would actually like to hear someone standing up and saying: “We’ve got these things wrong. We’ve really screwed up. We’ve really got to take this particular policy more seriously. We cannot cope with population growth and the growth in the length of years people live, and the more expensive medical treatments. We cannot cope with it unless we begin to take action on those things. At this moment, we cannot delay on that.”

    Matt Chorley: So what is the problem? Is it the quality of the politicians? Is it the quality of MPs in Parliament who get restless too quickly? Is it partly our fault, the electorate’s fault, that we are impatient and we want quick and easy answers to big complicated problems?

    Sir John Major: I’m afraid we do. That is because nobody is telling us we can’t have that. Instead of saying, “These are the difficulties we’ve got to face and you can’t have that,” nobody is doing that. Too many people listen to focus groups and parody the focus groups in their policies, which naturally means more expenditure, and that inevitably, in the short term or the longer term, means either more debt or higher taxes. Governments have lost the capacity, it seems, to say no. Part of the job of politics is to say no.

    Matt Chorley: I suppose the counterargument is that if you say no, you lose elections and you are not in a position of power any more.

    Sir John Major: I’m not entirely sure that is the case. I would guess there are millions of people out there who would be only too pleased to hear a politician stand up and set out absolutely clearly, honestly and unmistakably the depth of the problems we face and the sort of measures we are going to have to take in order to protect ourselves.

    They say, “You can’t do that. You’ll lose votes.” Really? When you are setting out a policy that will ease the lives of their children and grandchildren? Are we so self-centred that we can’t take in that message? I don’t believe it.

    Matt Chorley: I wonder, we have touched a bit on social media, but the role of social media in changing the way people consume the news, instead of watching the six o’clock news or reading a newspaper which might have a broad range of issues and voices. If you are just watching people you agree with, that reinforces the idea that this person has all the answers.

    Sir John Major: Yes. I’m afraid there has been a lot of that over a long time, where people mix with other people who have the same views and read newspapers that echo their views, or indeed shape their views. This is happening in a much bigger way in America, I may say, but it is certainly happening here as well. It is very dangerous. You can’t debate and change the world unless you meet the people with whom you disagree and try to persuade them. If, instead of that, you avoid the people you disagree with and form your own clique with your own views, then nothing is going to change in terms of really addressing the problems that lie before us.

    Matt Chorley: You have talked in the past about believing in a rough and ready decency. Do you think we see enough of that in our politics today?

    Sir John Major: Sometimes you do.

    Matt Chorley: Is it more rough than it is decent?

    Sir John Major: There are a lot of very decent people in politics. I don’t know the present Parliament as well as earlier Parliaments. I’m not a member of the present Parliament, but I know a number of MPs from the Conservative Party and Labour Party, not so much the Liberal Democrats these days. There are lots of them who have very decent instincts. The curious thing is that many of their instincts as to what they would like to achieve are the same. What they differ about is how to achieve it.

    The economy is a practical example. The Conservative Party would say we have to deal with it with much more free enterprise and much less regulation. Many people in the Labour Party would also want a much better economy but would go a completely different way: more state direction. Everyone can have their own view on that. But the interesting thing is that the objectives are the same.

    The very nature of the House of Commons, with His Majesty’s Opposition being two sword lengths apart from His Majesty’s Government, actually promotes the idea that the opposition must oppose everything. I’m not sure that I agree with that. I think the opposition has a duty to point out shortcomings. But when the objectives are the same, I think it would be better if people acknowledged similar objectives and began more practically to suggest mutual ways of meeting those objectives.

    The classic example I would give you is that I do not think we will get a proper concordat on health, probably the single most important issue to many people, until the main parties agree the broad parameters of it, and that includes funding. I think that is something they ought to be looking at. We can’t have one party coming into government, setting out a series of policies, making changes, and the other party denying them, then, because they have denounced them, coming in and feeling they have to change them. That is poor politics.

    Matt Chorley: And yet, when we look at how politics has unfolded over the last few years, promises do not get very long, whether it is their own MPs or the media.

    Sir John Major: Maybe these long-term problems would. In any event, the fate of individual politicians doesn’t really matter as much as the development of the right policy. It isn’t a good idea to keep changing Prime Ministers. I think there is also a limit. If I give you a term of years, it will undoubtedly cause trouble, but I think it is an idea to have a limited number of years. The Americans have two terms of a president and then stop.

    Matt Chorley: We can’t get to two years at the moment before speculation.

    Sir John Major: I know, but this is a phase we are going through. It is partly a function of the many, many difficulties that we face at the moment.

    Matt Chorley: Is the frustration that people don’t believe those problems show signs of being solved?

    Sir John Major: The best aphrodisiac in politics is hope. If people can see a change, there is a change in atmosphere. It doesn’t even have to be politics. If we win the Ashes or the World Cup, there is a total change in atmosphere in the country. If you see interest rates going down rather than up, there is a total change in people’s capacity to invest and their belief in what is going to happen in the future. The moment the economy turns, politics will turn too.

    Matt Chorley: It sounds as if, if Keir picked up the phone to you, I don’t know if he ever does, your advice would be the old Churchillian phrase, “Keep buggering on.”

    Sir John Major: I’m not going to offer advice. I have been in politics a long time and I have made many mistakes. One mistake I’m not going to make is advising a Labour Prime Minister in public. And no, I have not been asked to advise a Labour Prime Minister in private either.

    Matt Chorley: You talked about Her Majesty’s Opposition. Obviously now it is His Majesty’s Opposition. When you were there it was the Queen. Tell me about the weekly audience. I have heard other Prime Ministers talk about how it is the one meeting you go into where the other person doesn’t want your job. How important was it for you, having that regular audience?

    Sir John Major: It was very important. I don’t mean for me. I think the Prime Minister meeting the monarch weekly is very important for the monarch too. I have no intention of telling you the sort of things we discussed. I will tell you it wasn’t all politics by any means. The only others present at those meetings ever were the corgis. If someone had bugged the corgis, it would have been quite a revelation.

    Matt Chorley: Are you a fan of dogs?

    Sir John Major: Oh yes.

    Matt Chorley: You got on with the corgis?

    Sir John Major: Yes, the corgis were fine. We even have an office therapy dog.

    Matt Chorley:  Do you?

    Sir John Major: No, it’s not my dog. It’s my chief of staff’s dog.

    Matt Chorley: Oh, great. What sort of dog is it?

    Sir John Major: I’m not going to go into the dog. I don’t want the dog to become famous.

    Matt Chorley: When you were Prime Minister, it was quite a turbulent time for the royals. We have since had Cabinet papers released from when the Queen went through her annus horribilis. Did you feel that the royals were really under pressure at that moment? And did you feel that you helped turn things around?

    Sir John Major: I have no intention of commenting on that, except to say I did share an annus horribilis with the Queen at the same time, so we had plenty to talk about.

    Matt Chorley: You talked about how you had a small majority after 1992 and obviously that made your life hard. Is there a sweet spot for the size of a majority? Is there a point where having a massive majority is also a problem?

    Sir John Major: Something between 40 and 50 is the sweet spot. One of the problems the Labour Party has at the moment is that they have such a big majority. A large number of people know in their hearts that they are a one-term Member of Parliament for that particular constituency. Unless they defy political gravity, they will lose at the next election. That will encourage many of them not to take difficult decisions, but to cry out against difficult decisions so they can be seen to be defending their constituents against something that may be necessary but is unpopular. That makes any government’s job much harder.

    Matt Chorley: I just want to end on a couple of reflections. Any regrets? Your biggest regret from your time as Prime Minister?

    Sir John Major: Have you an hour or two? There were lots. I won’t say it is the biggest, but a big regret I have is that when I negotiated the Maastricht Treaty, it was hugely well received in Parliament. We didn’t put the Bill for the Maastricht Treaty through Parliament before the 1992 election because it had such support. There were five or six hundred Members of Parliament voting for it. We didn’t put it through. We put through other measures that were more immediately relevant, and so we left the Maastricht Treaty until after the 1992 election.

    As I explained earlier, after the 1992 election, the complexion of the Tory Party had changed remarkably. Without that, we would not have had all the troubles we had with the Maastricht Treaty, which had a great deal to do with the eternal damnation of the Conservative Government at the time. So that is a regret. I could have got it through.

    Matt Chorley: And that might have changed what followed afterwards.

    Sir John Major: Yes. There wouldn’t have been a Bill that they could spend a whole year attacking.

    Matt Chorley: On the positive side, George, who is a listener, got in touch and said, “Does Sir John feel he did not get enough credit for the National Lottery, lottery-funded elite sports and Team GB’s success at the Olympics? Please thank him from me.”

    Sir John Major: I’m very pleased it has done so well. I’ll tell you how I came about doing it. I was Chief Secretary to the Treasury in 1987 to 1989, and the Chief Secretary negotiated public expenditure with every individual minister. So he had, although he was a junior member of the Cabinet, more power than most members because he could redirect money.

    I noticed in doing that that the things the public most cared about, sport and the arts, got petty cash from the Government. I could never see a circumstance in which you could take money away from health or education or defence or social security in order to enhance leisure. Governments have never been big on leisure, if you go back as far in history as you like. So I was looking for some external way of funding something that the public really loved, sport and the arts. The answer was the lottery.

    Since then, I don’t know if you know how much it has given apart from prizes. How much do you think it has delivered to the public in good causes?

    Matt Chorley: In good causes? It must be billions.

    Sir John Major: Have a rough guess.

    Matt Chorley: Three billion?

    Sir John Major: £50 billion. And that was 18 months ago, so it will be £51 billion, rising to £52 billion now. You can go to almost every village in the country and you’ll find something badged with National Lottery money. If you see that badge, you think, “I did that.” Well, it wasn’t only me. Lots of other people were there. One takes personal blame and one takes personal credit, but neither of those things is fully justified. You shouldn’t entirely get the blame or entirely receive the credit. But I am very pleased it went well.

    Matt Chorley: A final thought, then, going back to where we began. The young 13-year-old John not working that hard at school, difficulty at home, parents distracted by trying to make ends meet. If that young John now were to come across our conversation and had an interest in politics, what would you say to him?

    Sir John Major: I would say to young people, we need you in politics. If all the talent in this country concentrates on “How can I earn more money?” and “How can I avoid public service like the plague because I don’t like the idea of it?”, then we are in deep doo-dah.

    We do need people to go into politics and we need our best people to go into politics. That may mean some changes in the way in which Parliament works. It will certainly require a change in attitude where public service, whether it is elected public service in the House of Commons, appointed public service in the Civil Service or any of the government bodies, particularly local government, is attractive. We need that sort of career to be attractive and to be socially attractive as well as financially attractive. I am not suggesting one is more important than the other. We need both. When you have respect for those, I think we will be getting back into a much more healthy position. It is very silly to argue and denigrate public service. People simply shouldn’t do it.

    Sir John Major, it has been fascinating to talk to you. Thank you for your time.

    Sir John Major: My pleasure. Thank you.

  • Sir John Major’s Letter to The Times Newspaper – 18 April 2026

    The text of the letter sent by Sir John Major to The Times newspaper on 18 April 2026.


    Sir, I am pleased but not surprised that George Robertson (Thunderer, Apr 17) has opened up a serious discussion about the readiness of our armed forces. Defence cannot be an optional expenditure. The world has changed: it is more dangerous and less predictable. There is a war of conquest in Ukraine, a war of choice in Iran, and we cannot know how they will develop or what they foreshadow.

    The future of Nato is uncertain, and the European members of the alliance must face the possibility of conflict without the full-hearted support of the US which, for decades, has been the rock upon which democracy prospered. This was a heavy burden for America to carry, but we can no longer — with absolute confidence — depend on her now. We must deal with the world as it is.

    We are living in a belligerent environment, which may worsen. The UK — and Europe more generally — must be sufficiently equipped and able to defend itself. The argument that “we cannot afford it” will be irrelevant if Putin succeeds in Ukraine — and then, perhaps, moves on into Nato territory. If we and our European allies are not prepared to make the necessary sacrifices to protect our people and our sovereign territory, it will be a betrayal of our history and our future.

    Sir John Major
    London SW1

  • Sir John Major’s Speech at Attlee Foundation Lecture – 18 March 2026

    The Attlee Foundation Lecture 2026, delivered by Sir John Major at King’s College London on 18 March 2026.



    ATTLEE FOUNDATION LECTURE 2026

    A PIVOTAL YEAR FOR DEMOCRACY

    First of all, I would like to thank the Attlee Foundation for inviting me to deliver this Lecture.  I am privileged to be here this evening, and delighted to be at King’s, where I feel very much at home.  

    It is a quarter of a century since I left front line politics, but I still have an observer’s interest in our world and our country.  Both are in an uneasy state, and actions – or in-actions – this year may be pivotal to the future.

    Let me do a little ground clearing.

    Some may be surprised that a former Conservative Prime Minister would deliver a lecture in honour of a former Labour Prime Minister.  

    They shouldn’t be and, in a world of grown-up politics, they wouldn’t be.  

    It is easy to admire Clement Attlee for his record of achievement;  his political courage;  his resolute defence of our country’s values;  his creation of the NHS;  his commitment to public service;  and the manner in which he put the interests of his country before his own – or those of his Party.  

    Of course, were he and I both active in politics today – there would be differences of policy, of priority, of philosophy.  We are political opponents.   But mark this:  Opponents, Yes.  Enemies, No.  

    Democratic Parties do have enemies in politics, but they are populist insurgents who seek to divide and not unite.  

    They are careless of the strife they cause.  They trade on grievances in our society.  Where ills exist – they exaggerate them.

    They then blame those ills on minority groups of a different race or religion.  It is ugly politics that deserves no place in our country.

    Our political system would work to better effect – and be more honest – if mainstream politicians acknowledged that their priorities – I emphasise priorities – have far more in common than they wish to admit. 

    That may surprise you, but consider this:  all our three main Parties are in favour of greater economic wellbeing;  secure defence;  decent public services;  thriving health provision;  affordable housing;  flourishing education;  and healthy employment.  

    This is what we expect in our liberal democracy, and when these priorities are not delivered the nation becomes disenchanted ‒ as it is now.

    We are not alone.  

    Over the last two decades, democracy has been retreating around the world.

    Nearly three-quarters of our world live outside democratic protection.  

    Autocrats undermine democracy to entrench themselves in power.  If we do not recognise the dangers of that, and protect ourselves against it, autocracy may, one day, overwhelm us.

    At my age I have a limited lease on the future, but let me say with all the force I can muster:  if we were to cast aside our mainstream politicians – as polls suggest we may do – then a gap would open up, and that gap may not be filled by democrats.  

    So – if you rejoice at the dire polling of Labour and the Conservatives ‒ beware of what you wish for.  

    If they were to fall, who knows what will rise:  you may find that autocrats-in-power do not share the democratic instincts of the politicians you have discarded.  

    Many people worry about what lies ahead.  Some are bewildered, even frightened, by the changes in our world.  It would be a self-inflicted wound if they turned to the extremes of politics because democracy was not speaking for them.

    We know democracy can succeed in the most unpromising circumstances:  the Attlee Government proved that eighty years ago.  

    After a crippling war, our country was near bankrupt.  The War had enhanced our reputation for courage and persistence, but left our immediate prospects in tatters.  Six years of conflict had left families bereaved, cities destroyed, and the Exchequer bare.  

    The British people had endured years of hardship.  The age of deference was on its death bed – and our battle-weary predecessors demanded a brighter future.

    In retrospect, 80 years on, the 1945-50 Government, and its Prime Minister, are held in high regard.  The problems they ‒ and their successors ‒ faced, and overcame, should be an inspiration for what could be achieved today.

    But there is no room for complacency.  No reason for the careless assumption that democracy is so entrenched it cannot be undermined.  It can – and around the world – it is.  

    Electors should treat with suspicion rash promises from infant Parties that have never experienced the complexities of democratic government.

    Our liberal-democracy is not perfect, but it is far preferable to any of the alternatives.  It has checks and balances unknown to other systems.  It has the ability to dismiss the inadequate, and haul down the over-powerful.  

    It exists to serve the nation.  It does not compel the nation to serve the State.

    Our political system is an enabler.  Its policies enable peace, resists war whenever possible, and promotes justice, wellbeing, growth, care where needed, enhanced life expectancy, and transformation of life opportunities.  

    Along the way it makes mistakes, but its purpose is to extend freedoms of choice and action that more extreme politicians would curtail.

    Butbut … we cannot ignore the uncomfortable truth that, in recent years, our democracy has fallen short of expectations.

    People have faced higher costs and rising taxes.  They have seen no real increase in their post-tax income – nor in their standard of living.  

    When – over a period of many months – our three mainstream Parties collectively register barely 50% in opinion Polls it is time to be concerned over what may lie ahead.

    In a bid to reassure electors, politicians talk of “reform” to come.  It’s a useful word – reform.  It can mean everything or nothing.  Reform means change.  Change means upheaval.  Upheaval provokes opposition.  

    Upheaval may be necessary but – sometimes – it is better to make progress on the everyday issues of politics.

    Is policy strangling initiative or encouraging it?

    Are tax levels deterring savings and investment?

    Is planning holding back housing for the homeless and the would-be home owner?  

    Does the benefit system encourage or discourage unemployment?  

    Can the triple lock be targeted to pensioners who really need it?  

    Can Parliament act more strongly against the misuse and abuse of social media and, if so, how?

    Can we fund the Armed Forces we need?  

    Will this mean more spending – or savings elsewhere?

    There is certainly no shortage of issues to settle.  But it is not only policy that needs updating:  so does our political system.

    Politics has a grubby underbelly that can make it look seedy.  

    We need a spring clean.

    Is political funding corrupted if ‒ with no qualifications other than money ‒ donors receive honours or preferential access to Ministers?  

    Should political donations be capped to protect against undue influence?  I believe the answer is – yes.

    Should the House of Lords be elected or appointed?  An elected Upper House would meet democratic aspirations, but would be a monumental mistake.  It could – and would – challenge the primacy of the Commons and create constitutional confusion.

    It would not retain the wisdom and lifetime experience to enable it to discharge its primary function of revising legislation.  It would not be a partner to the Commons:  it would be a rival.

    Recent General Elections have thrown into doubt the continuing validity of the “first past the post” system of voting.  

    As voting preferences spread more widely it provides distorted results.  The democratic case for examining this is growing, although changes would come with distinct drawbacks.  

    Should Members of Parliament who defect to a different Party be compelled to face a by-election?  Constitutionally, no – as they are deemed to be elected as individuals.  

    But, in the real world, they are elected as representatives of a political Party.  So – yes:  logic and common decency suggest they must face the electorate again in a by-election.  

    If the House of Commons wishes to regain the respect it has lost, it must justify the status-quo – or change it.    

    And one further thought:  is it not time to recognise that Brexit has failed to deliver its many promises, and the loss, each year, of £100 billion of European trade, and £40 billion of tax revenue is doing enormous damage to the lives and livelihoods of the British people – and their future?  

    Money is the root … of good public services.  Imagine how much better they – and our military power – might be if that money was still available to the Exchequer, instead of being thrown away with such a casual disregard of the consequences.  

    I do not believe we can fully rejoin the European Union in the near future.  But economic wellbeing tells us we should re-build relationships with our closest neighbours as swiftly and as comprehensively as possible.  

    When we left the EU, we broke up a European alliance of 500 million people.  We did so as America – with its 340 million citizens – pivoted away from us towards the East.  

    Suddenly, our closeness to the European and American power blocs was reduced.  This left the UK more solitary and vulnerable.

    My father was brought up in America, and taught me to admire the virtues of that great Republic.    

    Our two countries saw the world through similar eyes, and had much in common.  But our relationship, once rock solid, is now more nuanced – and more distant.  

    After WWII, the Marshall Plan helped rebuild shattered European economies and – in the post-war years – America was the rock upon which democracy prospered.

    America’s influence was overwhelmingly benign when President Truman committed to “support free people who are resisting attempted subjugation by armed minorities or by outside pressure.”

    America’s purpose, echoed by later Presidents, was to secure a freer – and safer – world, in which the strong pledged their protection of the weak.  No fee was asked.  No deal demanded.  No investment or payment expected.  It was altruistic policy in a harsh world.  

    It was what made America great.  

    I saw this first hand at meetings in the White House and Pentagon, when the most senior Military personnel of both countries were present.  Their mutual respect and friendship was self-evident.  Trust was instinctive and total.  Nothing was held back.

    Our political and military relationship was one of shared values – on every issue from human rights to free markets.  So I know what we had, and deeply regret that it seems to be falling away.

    Since the turn of the century, America has economically out-paced both the UK and the European Union.  At the millennium, the GDP of America and the EU was similar.  Today, America is half as big again.

    There is now a new tone from America.  President Trump argues that America is being “ripped off” by trading partners and – without consultation – he raised tariffs on imports from wealthy and poor countries, whether friend or foe.

    When the Supreme Court ruled these to be illegal, he reimposed a 15% general increase using different powers not yet tested in Courts.

    Uncertainty was reinforced by the President’s dismissive attitude to Europe, his demands for the ownership of Greenland – the territory of a NATO ally – and his expressed view that the incursion of Ukraine by Russia was solely a problem for Europe.

    This is not the America we have known.  

    Vice-President Vance also accused Europeans of being a greater threat to freedom in Europe than Russia.  That was offensive and absurd in equal measure.  

    It was President Putin who sent Russian troops to invade Ukraine ‒ not vice-versa.  It is Russia and Putin that conducts a “shadow war” of mis-information;  takes cyber action aimed against Western Europe;  and murders political opponents within Russia and – as we saw at Salisbury – in other territories, too.

    When President Zelensky visited the White House to seek support, he was “ambushed” – no other description suffices – by President Trump and Vice-President Vance.  It was Zelenskynot Putin – who was accused of “gambling” with World War III.  This turned truth on its head.

    Yet when President Putin arrived in Washington, he was greeted with full honours.  Putin revelled in his red-carpet reception, and appeared able to persuade President Trump that black was white.  

    President Trump’s priority is set out in two alluring slogans:  “America First” and “Make America Great Again”.  This explicitly puts self-interest before the wider international interest, and has begun to further pry apart the “rules based” system that was built and led by America herself.  

    That system was fraying ‒ but is now fracturing.  If diplomacy, consultation and co-operation breaks down, we will be moving towards the law of the jungle with which no country should be content – and in which no country is safe.

    My fear is the risk of stepping into a world in which “might is right”, and the mighty behave in an unprincipled and lawless manner.  

    In such a world the rights and prosperity of weaker nations are subordinate to the will of the strong;  greater powers are deferred to – not because they have justice on their side – but because they have the power to compel acceptance of their will.

    Such a concept is truly terrifying.

    How different that is from our expectations.  In 1949 – one year after the Marshall Plan was put into action – the NATO Treaty was signed.  

    The Treaty included an Article 5 Agreement that an attack on one Member will bring all others to their defence.  

    But is that still so?

    Will America – with all her military power – still be willing to come to the defence of a NATO ally?  NATO is, of course, a defensive – not an offensive alliance.

    I hope so.  But the Vice-President is on record as saying “I just hate bailing out Europe again”.  The American Defence Secretary added:  “I fully share your loathing”.

    Were these remarks merely frustration?  Or were they voicing future policy?  

    It is striking that neither comment was disowned by the President.

    If America did resile from Article 5, it is hard to see how an American could remain as Supreme Allied Commander.  Yet it is inconceivable – given America’s great military power – to imagine anyone other than an American leading NATO, as it is currently constituted.

    I suspect that, underlying all this, is America’s determination that Europe should bear a higher share of NATO’s overall costs.  That would be fair.  The burden has fallen too heavily – and for too long – on America’s shoulders.  

    American power was vital in winning both World Wars in the last century, although history tells us that she joined World War I only in 1917 after German submarines sank American ships.  

    And, in World War II, only after Japan attacked the American fleet at Pearl Harbour in 1941. 

    The worry for the future – to voice the private fear – is that past American Presidents only gained the support of their public to enter the two World Wars after America herself was attacked.  In future, without that imperative, can we be utterly confident of American participation?

    President Trump – against his own campaign oratory – has shown himself prepared to use America’s muscular power on overseas missions.

    I am conflicted by the American-Israeli attack on Iran.  

    In one sense, this was a wholly understandable response to Iran’s behaviour over many decades.  

    I have no illusions about the distasteful nature of Iran’s clerical leadership.  They unleash terror ‒ and fund murder and mayhem through their proxies.  

    This brutal regime has shown it is willing to murder any of its own citizens who are brave enough to protest at the mis-government that scars their lives.

    So ‒ why am I conflicted?

    It is because of what was not done ahead of any military action and ‒ crucially ‒ the wider implications beyond that.  

    There was no diplomatic attempt to obtain a UN Resolution to give legality to the war.  No nation – other than Israel – was even consulted.

    This was despite the fact that the war was bound have much wider repercussions across the Middle East – and beyond.

    Many nations will pay a price for this war.  

    Hostilities will not end when bombing stops.  Old hatreds will linger.  New hatreds will have been born.  A new generation may have been radicalised.  Retaliation may be deferred – but it is likely to come.  

    This war will have a long tail.

    Its aims have never been clear and – since the conflict began – they have been changing by the day.  No exit strategy is known.

    The President demanded surrender.  He is unlikely to get it.  

    For Iran, one should think Persia, and remember her history.

    Persia was a dominant world power when America and the UK were still living in mud huts.  She will not admit defeat.

    Neither America nor Israel were prepared to put “boots on the ground”.  This comforted their domestic audiences, but made regime change – always unlikely ‒ completely impossible.

    Whilst they restricted conflict to the air, American leaders encouraged Iranian citizens to take to the streets and confront well-armed Basij volunteers.  These are part of the Revolutionary Guard, which murdered 30,000 demonstrators only weeks earlier.  

    Unless – and until – the regime is seriously tottering, that encouragement to rise up is an invitation to suicide.

    In due time, the war will end.  

    What will it have done for the rule of law and the protection of the rules-based-system of behaviour that has served the world so well in the aftermath of World War II?

    The American Defence Secretary was contemptuous of …. “vague notions of international law” and the “…. stupid rules of engagement”.  

    Such disregard of law is a shameful example for a law maker to set.

    If the international rule of law is dismissed so casually, what are we left with?

    I can only speculate, but I believe we will be left with a more fearful world, in which wars may be more numerous and alliances less secure.  

    A world in which disputes are settled ‒ not with diplomacy or adjudication or agreement ‒ but by force:  the victor being the most militarily or economically powerful.

    This heralds a playground for the strong, perhaps Russia or China – or even America ‒ and a future of unease, even fear, for the weak.

    That would be a wretched legacy to pass on to the next generation.

    The mercurial nature of President Trump upends the accepted norms of diplomacy.  

    But the message for the UK and Europe is clear and unmistakable:  we must plan and enact policies to improve self-dependence.

    This will require us to raise budgets to enhance our military capacity for defence and offence.  That effort must be within NATO and not separate from it.  

    It will be an expensive and long-term commitment.  After decades of peace, Governments must now persuade their electorates that military spending must rise – perhaps at the expense of social expenditure or higher taxes?

    Assuming that can be done, countries must agree to purchase arms collectively.  And, in doing so, the weapons must be inter-operable on land, air, sea – and below the sea.  That will mean purchases from national suppliers may be less easy.

    Matters such as these – complex as they are – cannot be left undecided if NATO is to be battle ready and a credible deterrent to any hostile intent.  

    Do not misunderstand me.  I do not – in any way – wish to push America aside.  She remains the most important ally to the whole of Europe.

    For the UK, the Trans-Atlantic partnership is key to our security and intelligence.  It is in our national interest to sustain this relationship even if we are in dispute on other issues.  

    At No10, during Gulf War I, I experienced first-hand what could be achieved when working closely with one of the finest foreign policy teams America has had:  George H W Bush, James Baker and Brent Scowcroft.  President Bush and I never held back from speaking truth to each other, and never once did that impair our relationship.

    But today, there is a tendency to tip-toe around the President to avoid upsetting him.  Although I understand that, I do not agree with it.  

    Sovereign States that demean themselves will be seen as subordinates and not allies.  That is not a role for the UK.  

    If we disagree with American policy we should say so – as a friend that cares for the wellbeing of an ally.  Statesmen do this in private ‒ not in public.

    Our frankness may cause uncomfortable interludes, but we must never lose sight of what is morally decent and right, and stand up for what we believe.  

    In all our years of history, this is what the UK has done:  it was right then – and it is right now.    

    Let me return to the words of Clement Attlee:

    “…. peace does not come about through wishful thinking.  Peace is not just a negative absence of war;  peace means that you get rid – as far as you can – of the causes of war.”

    What do we mean by “Peace”?  It seems an easy question – but is not.  

    To fully enjoy peace, men and women need to be free.  By free, I don’t only mean to be at liberty.  I mean to be free of war;  free of fear;  free of want.  I mean freedom to worship without persecution, and freedom to speak against injustice and oppression.

    The concept of peace is wide-ranging.  Peace of mind is very precious but ‒ in the 21st Century ‒ a majority of people in the world don’t enjoy it:  the growth of stress, of pressure, of mental health, tell us that we are far from that ideal.

    There has been progress.  Many diseases that killed or crippled have been overcome.  Child mortality has fallen dramatically.

    Hundreds of millions have moved out of dire poverty;  similar numbers now have fresh piped water and electricity.    

    But, as rich nations reduce their aid budgets, poor nations continue to struggle – and the international liberal order loses its attraction … and its potency.

    There is an ancient responsibility upon every generation to leave behind a better world than they inherited.  We are not doing well on that front.  

    Our young generation has no direct experience of war.  They have grown up in a better environment.  They travel more.  Intermingle more.  Inter-marry more.  They are blind to colour and ethnic background.  They are free of many of the inhibitions and prejudices of their forebears.

    They do not view ancient enmities through the same eyes as previous generations.  They welcome communal action on issues like climate change that can only be overcome by working together.

    “Peace” ‒ said Attlee ‒ “does not come about through wishful thinking …”

    Indeed not….. not in any form.

    It comes about by working together – with civility, respect, fortitude, and mutual understanding – to diminish the causes of dispute and strife.  

    If we truly wish to create a safer world, that is the route we must take. 

  • Sir John Major’s Speech at Maurice Fraser Lecture – 18 November 2025

    The speech made by Sir John Major on 18 November at the Maurice Fraser Lecture held at the LSE European Institute on 18 November 2025.


    BRITAIN IN A CHANGING WORLD

    Thank you for that very kind introduction ‒ and for the invitation to deliver the Maurice Fraser Lecture.  

    Maurice was a Special Adviser at the Foreign Office during my brief tenure as Foreign Secretary in 1989 – between the much longer tenures of two great public servants ‒ my predecessor, Geoffrey Howe, and my successor, Douglas Hurd.  

    He was to work with all three of us – for a total of six years from 1989 to 1995 ‒ making him, or so I was told, the longest-serving Special Adviser in the recent history of the Foreign Office.  He was that near-mythical creature:  a round peg in a round hole.   Few – if any – Special Advisers have been awarded the Legion of Honour by France.

    He had a formidable knowledge of world affairs, a tireless enthusiasm, a wicked sense of humour – and a total commitment to his country.

    It was for that – and so many other reasons – that I asked him to join me at No10.  But Maurice’s allegiance to the Foreign Office was too great to tempt him away from it.

    Maurice studied at this university, and it was where he chose to return to share his experience after he left Whitehall ‒ first as a Lecturer, then as a Fellow and finally as a Professor.  In many ways, the LSE was his spiritual home. 

    So it is a great pleasure to be here at the European Institute with his family, friends and former colleagues, to celebrate his remarkable – but too short – life through this Annual Lecture.

    * * * * *

    This evening, I wish to look at Britain’s future role in our changing world.

    That world has undergone many changes over the last fifty years and – whilst a large number of those changes are welcomeothers are not.

    Globalisation has retreated.  Free trade has given ground to Protection.  Tariff barriers have risen.  Theft of intellectual property has become more blatant.  

    The stability of the rules-based post-war system is crumbling.  No country, no organisation, no Leader has stepped forward to seek a new consensus – to repair what is damaged, and replace what is lost.    

    Adherence to the written and unwritten rules of international conduct has fallen away.  The moral principles of politics are losing out to transactional arrangements.    

    As power shifts, and alliances are re-arranged, much that we once took for granted is no longer certain.  Current American policy has even upset calculations once believed to be settled about our future security and economic wellbeing.

    Our world today is unsettled, grumpy, fractious, changing in character as economic hardship bites, populism increases, and America and her allies grow apart.  For nearly two decades, democracy has been retreating as autocracy rises.  

    Basic expectations have been broken.  

    In the post-war years, it was the experience of most that improvements in our lifestyle had either been delivered – or were on the horizon.

    Downturns came, of course, but these were overcome and better years followed.  

    Slowly, if irregularly, democracy offered hope – even to those at the back of every queue.  Nations in the democratic West came to believe this improvement was an unbreakable trend:  it wasn’t.

    Since the financial crisis of 2007, too many people have seen little or no improvement in their living standards.  Taxes have risen, Pay packets buy less.  National and personal debt has soared – and hope has become anxiety.  All this has added to the disillusion with democracy.

    There is now a significant war in Europe, for which the outcome is uncertain – and the aftermath even more so.  

    The language of politics has changed.  It is harsher, more aggressive, more focused on the battles of politics than the welfare of nations.  

    A form of populism has taken root that builds its support by condemning others:  its target could be migrants, or minority religions, or people of another race – or any vulnerable group.

    It seems that if anyone is “different” and can be scapegoated – then they are fair game.  The late Chief Rabbi, Jonathan Sacks, noted that “Antisemitism is the best warning sign of a wider threat to a free and tolerant society”.  

    I agree with that:  venom directed at one source will be directed at others too.

    This mode of attack is not restricted to individuals or groups.  Populists use it against all authority and so-called “elites”.  

    “Elites” are treated as if they were “the enemy within”, and Governments as if their shortcomings were the root of all ills.

    Even the Judiciary is attacked, as if it were a subversive body, seeking to undermine the State.  No-one should be complacent about this.  If the Law loses its authority, the bully walks tall – and the lawless walk free.  

    The objective of the populist is as old as time:  if someone else is in the dock of public opinion, those who denounce them must surely be on the side of the majority.  The outcome of all this is to set citizen against citizen.

    Such behaviour debases all who practice it.  It is ugly, divisive, and racist – and daily on display.  

    RUSSIA

    In the midst of our unsettled world, President Putin has turned Nation against Nation.  The invasion of Ukraine had no credible or justifiable cause.

    Across Europe – and within his own country – Putin’s “3 Day War” is now over 3 years’ old.  So far, 400,000 Russians and Ukrainians have been killed – and many more are suffering from life-changing injuries.

    Only one man is responsible for this slaughter.

    The innocent civilians, who have died under bombs and drones, are considered by Putin apologists to be simply “collateral damage”.  They are not.  They are victims of mass murder and, when the fighting is done, this should not be forgotten.  

    There is a price to pay for mass murder and, if justice has any meaning, Putin will be brought face to face with it.  

    It is vital for future peace in Europe that Putin does not gain from his War Crimes – either on the battlefield or in an enforced deal.  

    Putin claims all of Donetsk, knowing Ukraine cannot cede it to him.  And President Zelensky must not be pressured to do so in return for promises that Putin is unlikely to keep.

    Western support for Ukraine has suffered from not being full-hearted.  The allies, generally, have provided enough for Ukraine to fight on and keep Russia at bay – but not enough for Ukraine to drive Russia back and end the conflict.  

    There are three ways in which this war can develop.

    It can continue indefinitely – in more or less a stalemate – if the democratic West holds back on increased support for Ukraine.

    But – if Russia gains the upper hand because Western support has dropped – then a compromise deal may be forced upon Ukraine.  

    That would be a shameful outcome, and one all of Europe – and beyond – would come to regret.  

    Putin would claim a victory, and be likely to re-group and test Western resolve again:  a bad outcome could be the preliminary to another war on a future date and a wider terrain.

    The third option is that Western support increases, Ukraine advances, and Russia retreats.

    If Putin loses, or is forced to withdraw, he loses face.  Conceivably, he may even fall from power.  If so, we cannot know if a successor will be more tractable – but it would be surprising if he were not more cautious.  

    America and Europe must weigh these alternatives.  Only one is likely to ensure peace.  They should take it.  

    One final point:  this conflict is not against the Russian people:  it is against Putin and his regime.  

    Putin has no scruples about creating chaos in other countries.  We should have none in telling his people how he deceives them ‒ and loots their assets.

    The prize of his departure would be the much safer and more stable Europe that Western democracy longs to have.

    CHINA

    Russia and China are allies against democracy, and friends only when it is mutually convenient.  There is no doubt that China has usurped the influence of the former Soviet Union and is the dominant state.

    Today, there seems to be no limit to Xi Jinping’s power or tenure of office.  He is supreme, and building up a more assertive China both economically and militarily ‒ especially in and around the South China Sea.  He is very much aware that China is America’s only Superpower rival.

    China now boasts the world’s largest Navy, with more warships and submarines than America ‒ and she continues to build them.  

    In the late 16th Century, China was the pre-eminent global power.  China has not forgotten this ‒ and nor should the world.

    President Xi is consolidating Chinese influence with diplomacy.  China offers development finance through loans and grants to nations across the globe.  

    Xi is presenting China as a champion of multilateralism ‒ in sharp contrast to President Trump’s arbitrary increase in tariffs on imports from friends and allies that has caused a great deal of anguish.

    It seems an upside-down world, in which America offends her allies, while China embraces them.  

    This “embracing” was very much the visual from the recent Shanghai Co-operation Organisation, hosted by China, and attended by India, Turkey and Egypt ‒ all of whom have been more generally considered as allies of the United States.  

    A wise America would gather them close, not push them away.  A friendship broken can be hard to regain.

    China is a strong opponent of liberal democracy, believing it to be inefficient and a potential risk to her authoritarian ways.

    Nonetheless, we must work with China, but set parameters to what we will accept.  We should not overlook her shortcomings:  her treatment of the Uighur Muslims;  her failure to honour promises over Hong Kong;  her threats to Taiwan;  her theft of Western technology.

    China will resent criticism, but may respect it.  She will scorn weakness – and we should remember it is weakness that encourages over-reach.  

    Nor should we be gullible.  China is a great power, but can be chillingly repressive.  Her philosophy is not inhibited by democratic instincts, or individual human rights.  If China believes actions are set against the interests of the State – she will crush them.

    As China says ‒ “We believe no comments challenging national sovereignty and social stability fall within the scope of freedom of expression.”.  That restriction is the very antithesis of democracy.

    It is a sentiment we should not ignore.

    BREXIT

    In an act of collective folly, the UK voted to leave the EU.  Across the world, our enemies celebrated.  Our friends despaired.  

    We left Europe on a minority vote of 37% of the electorate, after a Referendum Campaign that was packed with misinformation and misjudgement.  It left our country poorer, weaker and divorced from the richest free trade market in history.  

    The national interest was brushed aside by false hopes and promises, that even a Cabinet dominated by frontline Brexit enthusiasts was unable to deliver.    

    The gains – from Brexit – that were promised so confidently can now be seen to be illusory, while the forecast damage of leaving the EU has become only too apparent.  

    The nation soon saw “project fear” become “project reality”.  It is no consolation that a majority of the public now – overwhelmingly – recognises that it was misled.

    In their moment of triumph, Brexiteers predicted other countries would follow their lead and leave the EU.  None has ‒ all saw only too clearly that Brexit was packed with disadvantages.

    As we meet, nine further nations now wish to join the EU which is an apt comment on the world view of Britain’s decision to leave.

    The UK once revelled in being a leading member of a EU, with half a billion citizens and the undoubted first ally of the United States – the world’s most eminent super-power.  Today, we know we are neither ‒ and so does the world.

    As we plan for the future, we must see ourselves as we now are:  and what we are is 

    70 million people in a world of 9000 million.

    The UK has a proud history, a wealth of talents and a role in the world that continues to be significant.  

    So, we have much to offer our partners.  Our national assets would make the European Union stronger and better equipped to face an uncertain future. 

    Our collective future demands a Europe that conducts itself as an economic super-power alongside America and China:  the alternative is to be ever subordinate to their political and economic whims.  

    As I look to the future, I have no appetite for that.

    I know the shortcomings of the EU ‒ I lived with them for many painful years.  But, in a dangerous and uncertain world – with two unpredictable super-powers – I believe Britain’s future is safer and more economically secure inside a powerful bloc of neighbour nations than outside.

    But we cannot simply knock on the door and rejoin the European Union.  Too much political and diplomatic blood was spilt for that to be an easy option.  There are many barriers to a return to full membership that will be difficult to overcome – perhaps for many years.

    That said, there are areas where we can make a start and – looking forward – the plain truth is that the EU is too important for the UK not to be part of its decision-making process.  

    My immediate ambitions are limited, but a necessary beginning.  The changing public mood will help.

    The Polls tell us that well over half the electorate believes it was a mistake to leave the EU, and less than one-third now supports having done so.  Among the young, support for Brexit falls as low as 13%.  The trend is inexorable.  

    That is why it is disappointing that both Government and Opposition are so wretchedly timid in their ambition.  Both Labour and the Tories are terrified of the residual Brexit vote.  

    Our economic and political interests could not be clearer, but short-term Party political calculation is given priority over the national interest.

    Brexit is a flop.  It will not leap up from its death bed.  It is losing our country £100 billion of trade every year – as well as the tax revenue that trade would deliver.     

    Just think about that.  Every year – every year – the loss of billions of European trade is damaging our finances.  The loss is made far greater by decisions the present Government has taken.  That is one reason why we are facing a difficult Budget later this month.

    Serious economists forecast a cumulative loss to the economy of £311 billion by 2035, together with 3 million fewer jobs and a fall in trade levels with the EU.  

    As of now, many small and medium-sized firms have been defeated by post-Brexit bureaucracy, and simply stopped trading with Europe.  It is baffling that – at a minimum – we are not looking at how to negotiate away such frustrations.

    New trade deals – supposedly to cover lost European trade – have not done so.  Most are simply roll-overs of past deals.  Some are positively damaging.  

    The much-promised “mega” trade deal ‒ swapping additional American trade for lost European trade ‒ has never happened – and shows no sign of doing so.    

    Much though I wish otherwise, I do not foresee an early return to full membership of the European Union.  We have lost the unique and advantageous deals we gained in negotiations in the 1980s and 1990s – and I do not believe they can be regained.  

    Without them, a full return to Europe is almost certainly unobtainable in any likely Parliament until a younger generation of pro-European politicians come to power and the Brexiteer voice retreats again to the fringes of debate.

    In the post-Brexit years, it has become glaringly obvious that it is in our self-interest to rebuild a better relationship with the EU as an institution and bilaterally with individual Member States.

    The Government has made some modest steps that are welcome:  none is dramatic – but all will play a small part in building trust.

    More collaboration is under discussion ‒ such as youth mobility schemes, and integration into the Electricity Market.  Hopefully, they can be agreed.

    I hope ambitions can be raised to examine rejoining the Customs Union and, thereafter, the Single Market.  Neither will be easy or painless ‒ and both will face political opposition and negotiating hurdles.  

    But ‒ if a fair deal can be struck – it will be welcomed by trade and commerce, by a majority in Parliament, and by pragmatists everywhere.  And it can be achieved.  

    We may even be helped achieve an improved relationship by the evident wish of our European neighbours to build an expanded military presence across Europe, but within NATO.  British military capability is important to Europe.  

    If we try – and are rebuffed, we must try again.  The prize is worth the effort.  And, although those within the EU are tough negotiators, they must know that their long-term interests – and ours – are coming into alignment.  A deal can be done – and it must be done.

    UK

    Politics is a tough trade ‒ perhaps more so today than at any time outside of war.

    The commentariat, media, and social media give politicians little or no slack, even when dealing with novel and complex challenges.

    Let me turn to some of these challenges relevant to British politics ‒ though not necessarily unique to us.

    The cost of servicing our public debt is now over £100 billion a year, and the Chancellor’s second Budget in a few days’ time promises to be a painful lesson in what happens when nations spend too much and earn too little.  

    We are told constantly that “the broadest shoulders must bear the greatest burden” – 

    as, of course, a progressive tax system should ensure they do.  But it cheats the nation to pretend “the rich” can bear all the burden – or have not been bearing an increasing portion for a long time.

    In the late 1970s, the top 1% of UK taxpayers paid 11% of the total income tax take:  

    last year, they paid not 11% ‒ but 29%.  The Chancellor should beware:  to force the rich away will place a far greater burden on “the average tax payer”.

    We are not alone in our problem.  The scale of national debt is reaching crisis levels in rich countries as well as poor.

    Already, 60% of the world faces debt-to-GDP levels of over 100% ‒ including most of the world’s largest economies.

    This is an indictment of governments offering “Jam today” and “a bitter pill” tomorrow.  It’s now “bitter pill” time.

    No-one can be sure when the crisis will be triggered ‒ or what the catalyst will be ‒ but the world cannot continue to overspend and expect economic security.  And nor can we.

    IMMIGRATION

    A word about immigration.  

    No-one should blithely assume this is a short-term problem that will easily go away:  it won’t.  Last year, 950,000 migrants arrived ‒ 50,000 illegally by boat.  

    This is obviously socially unsustainable.  But the lure of our country will not disappear.  The long-term demand to come here will continue.

    The scale of this demand – although unwelcome – is a back-handed compliment.  No-one clamours to enter Russia, China or Iran.  Even so, there is a practical limit to how many the UK can absorb.  

    Yesterday, the Home Secretary presented new plans to Parliament that are controversial – but also more comprehensive than anything we have previously seen.  

    They deserve careful study – not instantaneous acceptance or rejection.  

    But – however the Home Secretary’s plans proceed – a long-term solution is likely to include a pan-European effort.  All of Europe faces this problem.  

    One aspect of reducing migration would be to make it more palatable for migrants to remain in their own countries.    

    The policy of cutting aid and investment to poor countries is very shortsighted:  it will accelerate demand to migrate as hardship increases.  This is a policy that acts completely against our own interests.    

    It is morally wrong, politically wrong – and heartless.  

    There have been hints that the Government will now re-think this policy:  it should do so as soon as it can.  

    POPULISM

    Let me return briefly to populism.

    Populism is no longer a fringe problem of a few outlandish politicians:  it is now mainstream and professional, and we should recognise the threat it poses to democracy.  If we do not – and it gains power – it will not tolerate its opponents.

    It is not easy to defeat populist groups offering disaffected people simple solutions to complex problems.  After all, if the established politicians have seemingly “failed” in finding solutions, it is human nature to look elsewhere.  

    But populism is a dead end.  I offer two antidotes to its appeal.

    The most effective – is policies to remove deeply felt grievances and regain political support.  

    Contented nations rarely support populism.  A return to stable growth would end much of the public dissatisfaction that gives life to it.  Such a recovery would also ease the minds of many people worried about their future.

    The second defence against populism is to expose the dangers of its policies and the unworkability of its solutions.  

    I do have a warning though:  over-the-top attacks on populist Leaders – as opposed to their policies – can be counter-productive.  Unworthy attacks can offer them the oxygen of public support:  a dissection of harmful and undeliverable policy can take that support away altogether.  

    The truth is that the only side populism is on is its own.  It cares for no-one else. And if it flourishes, democracy declines.

    Democracy has a lot to lose.  The established political Parties need to defeat populism – not copy it.  The sooner they raise their game the better.

    SUMMATION

    I would like to end on a personal note.

    I talk about the risks we face, because we dare not ignore them.  

    I talk of the future, because the present must prepare for it.  

    In modern politics, multiple challenges and day-to-day crises crowd in so fast, that it sometimes seems the future is crowded out by the immediacy of now.

    We must stop that, or we will simply drift, and events – rather than our national interest – will forge our future.  If that were to happen, it would be a profound failure of Government.    

    My worry, to put it bluntly, is this:  the future seems to be secondary to the frustrations of today.  But it shouldn’t be.  Future problems can become today’s problems very quickly.

    If we don’t face up to the risks of war;  of national debt;  of climate change;  of long-term migration;  of the health – even survival – of our political system;  then we fail in the duty we owe to our history, our present, and our future.  

    I believe in our nation:  in its history, its values, its natural sense of fairness and justice, its essential kindness and tolerance – and I admire the way in which it has always risen to existential challenge.  

    We must look to the future without fear of change, or timidity of action, but with the conviction that we can build the welfare of our nation, and sustain our place in the world.

    We have faced far more difficult times than now, and come through them.  The choices and challenges of today may be more complex, but they are less stark than we have faced before.  They can be overcome – and must be.

    But, to do so, we must abandon the cacophony of spin, soundbite, and empty noise – that so often substitutes for political debate about the well-being of our nation.

    It is time to turn our back on complacency, on pessimism, on short-termism, on the second rate, on the fear of failure, on artificial divisions – and raise our ambitions to bring substance to the fore in politics, pride back in to our nation, and hope back into our lives. 

    This is the principle by which Maurice lived, worked and taught.  

    And the principle which – I believe – runs deep within us all.

    We owe such an approach to the future. 

    It is my fervent hope that, together, we can work towards that outcome.

  • Sir John Major’s Remarks at Conservative Party Lunch – 28 October 2025

    The extracts from a speech made by Sir John Major at a Conservative Party lunch on 28 October 2025.


    At the moment, our country is drifting.  People don’t know where to turn.  Our political system is creaking, and anxious people are turning to populist politicians who have no philosophy, no experience of the complexities of Government, and no hope of lifting our four nations back into prosperity.  

    Unthinking populism has already wrecked our trade with Europe and made us poorer, weaker, and less relevant in the wider world.  Do not allow it to take away the decencies and civilities of our country as well.

    We, as a Party, are ourselves in part to blame for our present difficulties.  There have been too many internal squabbles.  Crises have been handled poorly.  The electorate believes we have taken them for granted.  

    At the last election, we had the worst result in our history.  Labour won a massive majority but – and it’s a BIG but – with a share of the vote so small it would have lost every other election over the last 100 years.  

    That said, our own pitiful share of the vote means we must re-think, re-assess, understand what failed, correct it, and begin to re-build. 

    Let me make this point.  Far more is at stake than just the political interests of the Conservative Party.  Around the world democracy is retreating, and autocracy is advancing.  Our political system is falling into question.  We should fear this trend.

    Frustration with democracy should not blind us to the toxic nature of nationalism ‒ or any ‒ and every form of populist or authoritarian government.

    Polls tell us that many voters, especially the young, seem to favour a “strong man leader”, who will sweep away all problems to produce a shining new world.  

    It really doesn’t work like that.

    Even a brief glimpse at history tells another story, for such figures lead no-one to Utopia:  instead, to gain and keep power, they sweep away the compromises and decencies of democracy.  

    If we wish to continue to enjoy freedom of choice and action we must work with – and for – democracy, and not let apathy bury it.  Only democracy will uphold the personal liberties we take for granted in the UK.    

    What must we do?

    To recover, our Party must first answer the question:  

    “I vote Conservative because ….”.  It is vital for the Party to regain a narrative, and a reputation for wishing to serve the people of the United Kingdom, over and above themselves.  

    We need to engage in a dialogue with the nation.  People have a right to know not only what the Conservative Party is doing, but why it is doing it – and what it will mean for their own futures.

    We must take people them into our confidence:  talk more with them and less at them.  We must offer deliverable policy – not spin, or soundbite, or unrealistic policies.  Let us leave that to others.

    We know the objective.  We cannot recover without growth;  without public and private investment;  without incentive and reward.

    If ambition and initiative are crushed, we will sink into long years of slow growth or no growth.  That is how democracy falls and autocracy rises.

    We need to applaud success and innovation – and not tax it until it collapses, or leaves our high achievers taking their ideas and their money elsewhere.

    What do we care about most?  I would suggest it is our families, our children and grandchildren.  They have had a tough time for two decades ‒ the desertion of the under-35 vote is no surprise.

    They have to pay for University education:  their parents did not.

    They won’t enjoy final salary related pensions.  They are done and gone.  

    Without help from their family, they can’t afford to buy a home of their own.    

    If they can’t buy, they must rent. 

    If they rent, they can’t save for a deposit for a house.  Schemes to help have come ‒ and gone.  

    For the first time I can recall, the modern generation will be poorer than their parents ‒ surely the very definition of failure, and one I never thought I would see in our own country.

    They are not alone, others have grievances – not least taxpayers and the elderly.

    We have all fought many elections.  We know a war cannot be won without an Army.  Nor can an election be won with only half a Party.  Our Party needs to open up its arms to all who share our broad philosophy – not a narrow strand of it.  

    The Party needs its Right Wing, its Centre, and Centre Left Conservatives back together in the fold.  If that can be done, then we may – once again – widen our appeal and be a power in the land.  The alternative is bleak.

    Let me stress the reality about our modern electorate.  The silent majority still exists.  Our task is to find them again.  

    43% of our nation is classed as “Centre” or “Middle Ground”.  You cannot ignore them if you wish to govern.

    To those who think differently I would ask a question:  where have the squabbles, the fratricidal disputes, the bone-headed rejection of tolerance, the hostility and mean-spiritedness of a minority within the Party, the sheer chaos brought about by self-centred ambition to captain the ship got us?  Where?  

    The answer stares at us reproachfully in recent election results and opinion polls.  Taken together, they have turned the greatest political warship in the history of our nation into a wreckage of the high ambitions our Party has always been proud to represent.  But it need not be so.  

    The Polls tell their own story:  only a small number of young people voted Conservative at the last General Election.  This is truly shocking.  We once had the largest youth membership of any political party ‒ yet now the young dismiss us.  We need to ask “Why?” ‒ and put it right.

    The average age of Conservative supporters at the 2024 election was 66;  and only among the 75 year olds and above was the Party the dominant choice of voters.  

    The message is unmistakable:  change – or cease to be relevant.  

    We Conservatives have always been a coalition of ideas.  Our Right and Left Wing can differ on policy.  But, historically, they accommodated one another because they shared a broad philosophy that transcended disputes on specific policies.  

    No-one was dismissed from the Party for disagreeing with the majority view.  All strands of opinion were represented in the high counsels of the Party.  We opened our arms to welcome new members.  

    That broad approach served us well.  We fare less well when moderate opinions are banished or – where maintained – tolerated and ignored.  

    So ‒ when our Party says “No” to Europe.  “No” to Climate Change.  “No” to Overseas Aid – it falls out with the majority of public opinion.  

    Such policies may delight a minority of opinion, but not the broad mass of electors in our essentially tolerant and kindly nation:  it seriously alienates many of them.  

    This world of “No” gives a false impression of our Party.  We do not believe in “No” to helping others or – as our opponents falsely claim – “Yes” to helping ourselves.  

    This loss of pragmatism, tolerance, nuance ‒ call it what you will ‒ has left many long-term Conservative supporters politically homeless.  They are not Socialists or Liberals – nor ever will be – but the form of Conservatism they had always supported seemed to have been cast aside.

    Whenever our Party lurches too far to the Right ‒ or condemns moderate Conservatives ‒ it pulls us further away from the traditional mass of our vote.  We can almost see and feel our vote moving away from us.  If you look at the results of recent by-elections the evidence is clear to see.    

    Some extreme voices wish to narrow our appeal further by expelling “One Nation” Conservatives from our Party, on the spurious grounds they are not Conservative enough.

    Yet “One Nation” Conservatives believe ‒ as I do ‒ in personal freedoms;  private enterprise;  free trade;  fair laws;  low taxes;  prudent public spending;  an international outlook;  and compassion for those facing hardship.

    What part of that is not Conservative?  To suppose anyone holding those views is un-Conservative is absurd.  And to embrace such a narrow philosophy shrinks the Party from being a broad-based national movement, to resembling a petty and mean-minded cult.

    A look at the recent decimation of Conservative seats in our once solidly supportive counties of Kent, Surrey, Sussex, Hampshire and the West Country is a reflection of how support has been lost by this abandonment of the Centre.  

    What of our opponents?

    We can rely on Labour to fail – they are already doing so.

    Their objective – to grow the economy – is right.

    But their policies of over-taxation;  restriction;  a denial of aspiration;  hostility to risk takers;  a conscious desire to level down instead of levelling up – will deny them growth and guarantee stagnation.

    I spoke – many years ago – of my desire to see a classless society:  the present Labour Government is the most class conscious administration I have seen since the early 1960s.  Last week’s by-election result – in friendly territory – shows how widely they are disregarded.  

    Reform UK is now showcasing its defects.  It gained support by highlighting grievances, and scapegoating minorities.  If any one of a minority group is a law-breaker, or violent, or sadistic, Reform label them all the same.  But, of course, they are not.    

    More recently – in an effort to be all things to all people – Reform is now embracing overspending, nationalisation, and promises that will never – can never – be met.  If you doubt me ‒ look at their performance in the local authorities they now govern:  they are completely out of their depth.  

    Other policies are ill thought out.  Reform wishes to nationalise half the water industry, yet does not seem to realise the reason for privatisation was because the State had no funds for investment.  Nor do they now.  

    This is amateur populism let loose.  Such foolish promises illustrate their unsuitability for power.

    As Reform becomes ever more unrealistic, it opens up a big space on the Centre-Right of politics which is where Conservatism flourishes.

    We must grasp this.  

    Our nation does not ask for the moon.  In essence, people’s demands are very simple.  They want a better life:  a home;  a job;  more choice;  more freedoms;  more security ‒ not least in retirement.

    Kemi Badenoch has set up Commissions to prepare future policy:  that is the right way to proceed.  It showcases serious intent.  More please.

    The possibility of electoral recovery is better than many believe.  The electorate is less committed to any one political Party than, perhaps, at any time in the last 65 years.  

    We are now a nation of floating voters, and the Conservatives must offer sound reasons for them to float to us.  In a nation disillusioned with politics we must re-offer hope and integrity.  

    I spoke disparagingly about populism because of what it can do.  It can steal our future and undermine our freedoms.  Let those who want to desert their present allegiance do so – and run to Reform UK.  We will be better off without them.

    Some Conservatives wish for an alliance with Reform.  Why?  Reform wishes to destroy the Party.  Fortunately, our Leader opposes such an alliance and is right to do so.

    The majority of Conservative voters understand that – if we were to allay with them – we would forever destroy the tolerant, broad-based, national Party that once we were – and can be again.  It would be beyond stupid.

    It is time for we Conservatives to face up to our responsibilities to our nation and our democracy.  If we ignore them, the nation will ignore us.  

    But, if we rise to the challenge, we can return to being the great political force which once we were.

    That is our duty and our privilege.  

    It is time to begin.  We have no time to waste.

  • Sir John Major’s Speech at the Inaugural Lord Lothian Lecture – 15 October 2025

    The text of Sir John Major’s speech to the inaugural Lord Lothian lecture at the Global Strategy Forum on 15 October 2025.


    When Clare and Mary asked me to deliver this inaugural lecture on behalf of the Global Strategy Forum, it was easy to say “Yes”.  

    Michael and I became friends – and allies in politics – from the moment we met 50 years ago.  We came from different backgrounds, mixed in different circles, had different leisure pursuits ‒ but we shared the same political space, and beliefs about the purpose and practice of politics.  

    Michael was an easy colleague.  Loyalty and moderation were at the very core of his politics.  He believed in the power of persuasion, and the essential decencies of human behaviour ‒ even when faced by adversaries that denied both of those virtues.

    He was clever, compassionate, sensitive and intuitive and – where he saw wickedness or hardship – he felt an obligation to put it right.  

    Michael carried his compassion as a shield against bigotry.  He preferred to offer a hand up not a put down.  He wished to understand rather than condemn, and to face up to challenges rather than pass them by.

    His focus was progress, not regress;  the future not the past;  and his aim was to put right what was wrong.

    When, in the early 1990s, I was trying to build a Peace Process to end violence in Ireland – North and South – I knew I would benefit from the abilities of Paddy Mayhew and Michael Ancram.  They were both custom made for the task, and never once did they disappoint.  

    Michael and Paddy had extensive private contact with all the Northern Ireland Parties:  often a frustrating experience, but both had the gift of listening – amid, of course the occasional Paddy eruption ‒ and, slowly, progress was made and early trust established.

    It was essential preparation for more challenging meetings that were to come.  When we reached the stage of face-to-face discussions with the IRA Michael ‒ as Minister of State ‒ was the obvious choice for the initial contact.  

    This was at a time when such responsibilities carried great personal risk and thus ‒ before appointing Ministers to the Northern Ireland Office ‒ I would always ask if their families were content.

    It is to their credit, and that of their families, that no colleague invited to serve stepped away from the challenge.  And so it was with Michael, who didn’t hesitate.  

    There was deep suspicion of the Peace Process from many of the Northern Ireland Unionists, and their allies in Parliament and Press.  Michael was an arch-comforter, damping down Unionist fears of “secret deals” or “unadmitted concessions” to Sinn Fein or the IRA.  Progress was not easy.

    I recall briefing John Smith, the then Labour Leader, in my office in the Commons.  Whisky in hand, John offered “help in principle” and chuckled as he added “but you do know there are no votes in it”.  Nor were there – but that was never the purpose.

    A Belfast without bombs, with blood ties not blood flowing, a generation able to grow up without inheriting the hostility and hatred of community division.  That was the purpose.  And Michael’s instinctive character of peacemaker made him perfect for the job.  

    His brief was tough as the IRA peered suspiciously at every proposal.  History was a bar to progress.  The memory of past grievances was ever present:  the Black and Tans, the Hunger Strikes and Bobby Sands ‒ these, and much more, were always a block to trust.  

    But Michael’s efforts were brave and unrelenting.  The progress he made with Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness paved the way for Paddy Mayhew to join him for more in-depth discussions.  

    He, Paddy and I were hugely frustrated that we were unable to complete the Process ‒ but were comforted in the knowledge that – against all predictions – we moved the dial from conflict towards peace:  and delighted that Tony Blair and New Labour completed the work.  

    Today, in Ireland – North and South – we are at a place where none of us dared to hope we would be.  

    Michael truly deserves his place in the pantheon of Irish peacemakers.

    * * * * *

    There are times ‒ and now is one such time ‒ when change seems to come at a gallop.  Between Ancient Greece and the 15th Century no-one challenged the wisdom of the ancients until the Renaissance.  

    A 10th Century European would easily have recognised 15th Century European life:  a child today would barely recognise the way of life 50 years ago.  

    As we meet, our world is in an unsettled state.  Liberal Democracy is in retreat.  Autocracy is thriving and spreading.  Globalisation is fraying.  The post-war consensus is weakening at best and – at worst – may be on its way to breaking up.  

    As for our own country, we now have fewer committed friends than once we had.  We need to remedy that.

    As these trends thrive, I hope nation states recognise the risks, step up, urge conciliation and begin the repair of our failing institutions.  Leaders need to be proactive – not locked in a defensive crouch.

    In our unsettled world, only an unpredictable America, and a hard-to-read China, are political, economic and military super-powers:  no other country comes close.  Their future behaviour and bilateral relationship are critical to us all.  

    Both countries know they are destined to be rivals ‒ and allies only on individual issues.  The world needs them to find an accommodation with each other, while they must persuade their domestic audiences they are hard-nosed defenders of their own philosophy and national interests.

    There are trip-wires ‒ most obviously Taiwan ‒ but, if diplomacy and self-interest prevails, with trade and regular contact uninterrupted by threats of high tariff impositions, then a long-term, and mutually beneficial relationship is entirely possible ‒ but only if they will it.

    If they do not, and lapse into serious conflict, then they could set the world aflame.  

    But I don’t foresee that.  Sensible diplomacy and pragmatic self-interest should be able to prevent full-fronted confrontation whenever – as is likely – frustrations and disputes arise.  

    CHINA

    Historically, China has been the victim of military conflict, not the aggressor.  That said, she has been dramatically increasing her military capability, at an extraordinary pace.  No-one should underestimate the scale of this, nor her growing capacity to enforce her will militarily.  

    Events ‒ and American policy ‒ may determine the future:  if America withdraws from her post-war role in favour of more isolation ‒ will China step up and try to fill it?  The answer to that is likely to be “Yes”.

    There is much we neither know, nor understand about China.  She is an enigma.  The first verse of her National Anthem is encouraging:  telling citizens to “Arise, you who refuse to be slaves”.  

    It’s an enticing invitation, but not to be taken too literally.  Perhaps my view is cynical, but I have vivid memories of Tiananmen Square.  Those who did arise were soon silenced – and none too gently.  

    As China has grown in power, she has begun to assert herself in Asia, and increase her influence worldwide.  She is an avowed opponent of democracy, which she considers an alien and inefficient form of government.

    China is sufficiently self-confident to break international Treaties.  Persecute the Uighurs in Xinjiang.  Threaten Taiwan with a military assault.  Ignore promised freedoms to Hong Kong.  

    All that ‒ and multiple cyber threats and industrial larceny – may be laid at her door.  These are the actions of an ambitious nation prepared to bend others to her will.

    Her trade and investment grows each year.  A majority of countries around the world now conduct more trade with China than America ‒ in some cases, far more.  Apparently blind to the implications of this, current American policy on tariffs may widen that lead.

    I have no doubt our government wishes to have a good relationship with China.  Who would not?  But it cannot be a subservient one.  China would not respect that.

    AMERICA

    For most of the post-war years, America has been the rock upon which democracy prospered.

    Her influence was overwhelmingly benign when President Truman committed to:  “support free people who are resisting attempted subjugation by armed minorities or by outside pressure.”.

    So was it when, over a decade later, President Kennedy committed to confront: “the common enemies of man ‒ tyranny, poverty, disease and war.”.

    The purpose behind these noble sentiments was to create a freer and safer world, in which the strong pledged their help to the weak.  No price was asked for this.  No deal demanded.  No investment or payment expected.  

    It was high politics in a harsh post-war world, when to help others was not seen as a business opportunity.  This approach, it seems, is now out of fashion.

    Today, America has a less altruistic policy.  The President’s ambition is to “Make America Great Again” – although it is puzzling that being the richest and most powerful nation in the world is not already seen as an indication of greatness.

    In the MAGA quest, America has embraced national self-interest.  The President ‒ with the support of the world’s richest man ‒ abruptly cut off aid to the poorest people in the world and those organisations whose role is to cure the diseases that most afflict them.  

    Forecasts of the long-term implications of this are dire.

    A Report in the Lancet tells us that US aid alone prevented over four million deaths ‒ one third of them children ‒ in every year of the first two decades of this century.  That support has gone.  

    It is a harsh policy that ends such a benevolent approach, despite the pain and loss it will cause.  But America is not alone in turning her face away from the human rights of the weak.

    Other countries, including the UK, have cut aid.  I know that times are tough for us and many others, but we are not facing mass hunger, and our sick are not going without medicine or care.  

    In reflective moments one may wonder:  where is the Good Samaritan when he is most needed?  

    I believe the scale of cuts to aid is wrong on practical as well as moral grounds.  In due time, whenever more people flee poor countries for richer pastures – as they will – we may regret how little we did to keep them settled where they are.  

    President Trump has also imposed tariffs on imports from most of the world in pursuit, as he cheerily puts it, of:  “making America richer and richer by many billions”.  

    This not only hurts allies, some wealthy, some not – but also countries that are poor and, in some cases, very poor indeed.

    Apart from filling the US Treasury coffers, the tariffs are justified by the claim that they are imposed upon countries which had allegedly been “ripping off America” for years.  If that were so, they were remarkably unsuccessful given America’s economic pre-eminence.  

    It may be ‒ when American consumers realise that the tariffs are raising prices in their own High Streets – that they might consider it is they who are being “ripped off”.  American taxpayers please note:  rising prices are a regressive tax.

    I was brought up to admire America.  I still do:  there is much to envy.  But I don’t admire her present approach.  Nor should the American people.  It comes at a high cost to her reputation for free trade and sensible economics.

    Many countries will be bruised by the new tariffs, and resentful that they felt forced to accept for fear of more severe impositions if they did not do so.  

    In what passed for “negotiation” I do wonder what negotiating power smaller nations had to deploy?  “Little or none” is my guess.  They faced a choice of submitting – or a worse deal.  If nothing else, the tariffs showcased the raw power of America.

    Our flexible English language has a word for pressure imposed by the powerful on those who are weaker.  It is a good old word:  we call it “bullying”.  We may fear the bully.  We may accommodate the bully.  But we never forget the bullying.

    There is no doubt that America is a great power.  But with that power comes great responsibility about how it is used.  

    The President needs to understand that any casual disregard of long-standing international mores risks undermining – to the point of destruction – the rules-based system of laws and behaviours that have been a shield and guardian to the world over the last seventy years.

    Leaders who do not make that clear – preferably privately, but unmistakably – are betraying their responsibilities.

    Allies and opponents alike are baffled by the President’s inconsistency.  

    Such unpredictability may be a useful enforcement tactic in negotiations – as we have seen – but it carries a dangerous risk of misunderstandings and misjudgements that could be very damaging in the longer-term.  Trust and certainty matter in Statecraft.    

    RUSSIA

    I wish to turn – but briefly – to Russia.  She is a real and present danger to democracy.  The war in Ukraine is indisputably Putin’s war.

    Putin has moved from being an authoritarian Leader to a totalitarian one.  There seems to be no domestic check on his behaviour.  Outspoken opponents disappear or die mysteriously.  Planes fall from the sky.  So do opponents from high windows.  National assets are looted to support Putin’s cult of personality.

    In war, Russia shows no restraint.  The civilian is as much a target as the soldier.  Even Ukrainian children are stolen and indoctrinated against their own family and country.  Let me not mince words:  that is wicked to the core ‒ no other description suffices.

    We should not be surprised.  Russia has become a repressive rogue State, hostile to democracy.  The controlled media feeds civilian Russia with untruthful propaganda that includes bare faced lies about the West.  The truth – in Russia – is whatever Putin wishes it to be.

    Russian citizens – patriots by instinct – are fed untruths throughout their lives and, because that is all they hear, they believe it.   

    By any yardstick, Putin is a warmonger, not a peacemaker, and little will change in Russia until he is gone ‒ at which time someone will be brave enough to list his many crimes.

    It was revealing that, when Prigozhin, Leader of the Wagner group of mercenaries marched on Moscow, no-one of influence spoke up for Putin conscious that he ruled by fear ‒ nor against him knowing it would be life-threatening to do so.

    I hope no Western policy maker forgets that Ukraine is our battle as well as theirs:  even though it is Ukrainian blood that is being spilled, our own interests are also at stake.  If Putin gains from war, his demands will grow and not diminish.  

    The present outlook is that, unless America and Europe combine, in a far more powerful response to Russia’s aggression, the war will continue – perhaps for a long time.  

    Hopefully, President Trump will see Ukraine through the eyes of his Western allies, and use America’s power to protect Ukraine and deter further Russian adventures.  If Russia loses, the world wins.    

    And what a boost it would be to confidence and the global economy if wars in Ukraine and Palestine were to end.    

    Conflict, of course, takes me to Gaza.  

    GAZA

    It would be a miserly mind that does not welcome the ceasefire that has been agreed.  The killing has stopped, the hostages freed and – I hope – aid will swiftly alleviate suffering in Gaza.  

    I warmly congratulate President Trump, Qatar, Egypt – and, I suspect, contributors here in the UK – for this advance.  On this occasion, the President’s unconventional approach succeeded where others had failed, and a breakthrough to a better future may have begun. 

    But – it is a beginning not an end.  A ceasefire – not a certain and continuing peace.  Ahead lie serious questions, the answers to which will require good luck, good intentions and a herculean effort over a long period.    

    Wars have consequences that endure.  

    The bombs may stop, but will Hamas surrender weapons?  Who will rebuild the bombed-out wreckage and pay for it – with years of construction at a cost of many billions?  

    Will any Israeli Government accept Palestinian aspirations and, if so, can it be delivered against domestic opposition?

    Is a “Two-State” solution still even possible if Israel sets her face against it?  If not, what is the future for Palestinians?

    What, under any final agreement, will happen to the illegal settlements?  

    Will land be returned?  Or compensation offered?  Will future settlements be prevented?  

    Can Israeli-Palestinian relations be restored?  The Hamas attack on Israel killed 1200 people, and took many hostages – many of whom have since died in miserable circumstances.  It was an act of profound evil that led to an unrelenting response.

    In pursuit of Hamas, Gaza was turned to rubble.  The stated objective was the complete destruction of Hamas, which was never likely, and has not been achieved.  

    What was “achieved” was over 60,000 civilian deaths and many life-changing injuries that will not be easily forgotten.

    Nor will the blockage of aid;  the harrowing sight of starving men, women and children;  the image of dead bodies in ruined streets;  or the displaced families being herded around from place to place.  

    It will be hard for both sides to find forgiveness.  The Palestinians dreamed of a homeland.  Israeli Ministers wanted (I quote) to “bury the idea of a Palestinian State”.  

    This is not easily reconciled.  The risk of a legacy of hate passing down to future generations is very real.  Over time, war damage can be re-built.  But can minds be changed?

    Israel must also repair relations with much of the world.  Her approach – including the colossal misjudgement of banning the media from the war zones – lost the Israeli Government the benefit of any doubt over its actions. 

    The whole world knows the history of the Jewish people.  They have been treated cruelly throughout the ages.  But some of the actions of the Israeli Government lost them the sympathy and understanding they had earned throughout the post-war period.

    I have Jewish friends whom I cherish, and it is heart-breaking that antisemitism and fear has been returned to their lives so unfairly in so many countries ‒ not least our own.  

    Hundreds of thousands of Jewish people around the world have shown their dismay at the conduct of the war.  They do not deserve to be treated as complicit in what has been happening in Gaza and the West Bank.

    It is the Israeli Cabinet – and they alone – who must answer for their decisions.

    LOOKING OUTWARD

    As more nations look inward I see opportunities to look outward.  The UK’s relative “hard power” has fallen in recent decades and, even though events suggest that will be repaired – as it must – it is still wise to build up our “soft power”.

    Our links to Europe and America may be looser now than once they were – and that is a loss – but it does free us up to be a far more independent voice in our troubled world.  

    An Age of Reason is badly needed, and we can help usher it in.

    Let what we say about international policy echo for its good sense:  let it have a clarity beyond pious statements issued for the sake of form.  I wish our voice to be heard and our nation to earn respect in a role that no other nation has taken up.

    There is ample scope and appetite for such a voice.  Much of what should be said is held back ‒ and why?  Is it because of diplomatic niceties;  an unwillingness to stir controversy;  or common or garden plain funk?

    Meanwhile, the post-war institutions are failing to deliver what the founders expected of them.  Self-evidently, hampered by its own rules, the United Nations is not delivering peace and security. 

    The membership of the Permanent Five is out of date and needs reform.  A credible option is to enlarge it to embrace countries such as India, Germany, Brazil, and end the single nation veto on action that so often leaves the UN looking powerless when a powerful lead is vital.    

    As a founding Member of the Permanent Five, the UK is well placed to argue the advantages of such a change.

    Our worldwide reach and assets leave us in a position to be a candid friend, a conciliator, a conscience in support of those who have no voice of their own.

    We should dust off our “soft power” assets.  Our voice, our global spread, our language, the BBC World Service, our Universities, our culture – especially our theatre.  Until recently, I would have added our leadership in Overseas Aid.  I hope, soon, to be able to do so again.    

    I hear the objections ringing in my head.  It’s altruistic.  It’s pointless idealism.  It will come to nothing.  It will gain us nothing.  Perhaps not.  

    But it will gain us respect.  Friendship.  It will help our voice resonate far and wide.  More than anything, it is also the right thing to do.  In our mercenary world, is that too naïve a reason?

    We British are 70 million people in a world of 9 billion.  We are not the mighty power that once we were.  We cannot compel as once we could.  But we can offer the world an example, and speak out for the decencies and civilities that lie deep-rooted in the British instinct.

    What do we stand for as a nation if not for that?

    I will close as I opened.  

    I spoke of Michael’s belief in the power of persuasion and the decencies of human behaviour.  I reminded myself that where he saw wickedness or hardship, he felt an obligation to put it right.  

    I believe – throughout our world – there is audience crying out for such qualities of leadership.  

    Let us show that it can be done. 

  • Sir John Major’s Podcast with Gyles Brandreth (Rosebud) – 26 September 2025

    The link to the podcast with Sir John Major and Gyles Brandreth, the former Conservative MP for the City of Chester, on 26 September 2025.


    Link to podcast.

    A transcript will be added here shortly.

  • Sir John Major’s Royal Anniversary Trust Speech at Mansion House – 10 September 2025

    The speech made by Sir John Major at Mansion House, London, on 10 September 2025.


    Sir Damon, Ladies and Gentlemen ….

    Congratulations in getting here on a day when the tube system is on strike:  perhaps, one day, AI will replace London transport altogether.  I live in hope.

    Thirty years ago, I had the pleasure of congratulating the first winners of The Queen’s Anniversary Prizes – as they were then known – and addressing the first of many Prizewinners’ Dinners at Guildhall.  

     So, when the Royal Anniversary Trust invited me to speak to you, their Prizewinning alumni, supporters, and friends I was delighted to accept.

    Much has changed in those thirty years.  The world has moved on – and so has education ‒ in ways that are welcome, and some that are not.

    Today, far more British students have the opportunity to attend university, together with growing numbers from overseas.  The choice of subjects to study has widened, and reflects our modern world.  

    There is a greater demand for Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths;  the search for places for the latter two courses is at an all-time high.

    This interest in STEM subjects is excellent news for our future economy, but comes with the downside of a comparable decline in study of the Arts, Languages and History.  

    As Artificial Intelligence looms, the drop in Humanities Studies is likely to continue.  Personally, I regret that ‒ although I cannot deny the necessity of school and University studies mirroring the national need.

    Even so, my instinct is that our troubled world needs Humanities Studies as much – if not more – than in many past years.

    To lose History is a shame.  I have always believed that to prepare for the future one must understand the past, or previous mistakes will be repeated.  Certainly, that is true of politics and public life.  Too true, sadly, as we see today – both at home and overseas.  

    Although we are born with a unique DNA, it is our education and environment that shape us as adults.  In particular, it teaches us how to think and make judgements.  And, as adults, we need to see our country as it is ‒ and not as once it was.

    Our United Kingdom is 70 million people in a world of 9 thousand million, and the reality of that is unmistakable:  if we are to flourish in an ever more competitive world, we need the highest intellectual and vocational skills to safeguard our future.  Our wellbeing will be rooted in our education.

    I have a particular respect for education – perhaps because I had so little of it:  my fault, I should add, not that of my school.  But, post school, I had no choice but to study – for many yearsto make up for what I had casually thrown away.

    This experience had one great advantage.  It taught me at a young age that learning is lifelong:  it does not end upon leaving formal education.  In many ways, that is where it begins.  [Certainly, that has been my experience].

    Experience of life tells me, too, that a rounded education must reach beyond the formal curriculum.  Culture ‒ in all its aspects, Sport, inter-personal skills, and inquisitiveness must be stimulated and nourished if the young are to make the best they can of their lives.  [Life must include leisure and pleasure as well as duty].

    We cannot be content with things as they are:  certainly not in education.

    Although great improvements have been made – and continue to be so – not all children have the same good fortune, the same opportunities, in every part of our country:  there are wide disparities.  

    It is beyond time that the promise of “Levelling Up” ‒ in education, in investment in the regions, in jobs, in social mobility ‒ is given political priority.  The circumstances of birth should not determine the quality of life.

    In saying this, I am talking of improving opportunities for those with little or none – not cutting back on the best to produce a false benchmark.  That is not only self-defeating, it is wrong.  

    Our national interest is to nurture merit, not waste it – as, sadly, we often do.  Destroying the best is short-sighted and foolish:  improving the worst is a national obligation.  

    When I was leaving Primary School in the early 1950s, only 16 Universities in England offered Higher Education courses – to a total of 100,000 students.  In those days, twice as many people laboured on farms as worked in financial services.  The past truly was another country.

    We are changing still ‒ only faster.  Last year, over 2 million students were enrolled.

    I talked once of what I called “a classless society”.  One of my aims – within that much misunderstood ambition – was to seek parity of esteem between white and blue collar employment – between intellectual and vocational skills ‒ both of which are vital if our nation is to prosper and thrive.

    Over the past thirty years, the numbers entering skills-based, vocational training have risen dramatically, and opened barriers to education that many felt were closed to them.  

    The learning of a Skill meets a national need, and offers personal independence, professional pride and – mostly – a better quality of life.  It is, as they say, a “Win, Win”.

    The demand for Skills will both change and grow in the years ahead.

    I am delighted that The Queen Elizabeth Prizes evaluate and acknowledge those twin strands of intellectual and vocational skills.  

    I believe that the Royal Anniversary Trust is unique in bringing these two communities together, and recognising them to be of equal value.  I warmly congratulate them on that.

    Over recent years, in a testing environment, our economy has performed below our expectations.  As we look ahead, our Universities and Colleges will educate the talent that can re-ignite growth – with all that means for our future.  

    Estimates tell us that Higher and Further Education contributes over half a trillion Pounds to our economy each year and – as the demand for STEM courses shows – it has the capacity to greatly increase that figure.  As it does, it will contribute to a higher quality of life for everyone.  To pervert an old saying, “Education is the root … of all progress”.  

    I don’t use those words idly.  Our best Universities and Colleges are among world leaders in finding solutions to global problems.  

    • Was it not an Oxford team behind the Covid-19 vaccine?  
    • Was it not Scotland’s Rural College whose genetic selection trials are transforming milk yields for subsistence farmers in Africa?  
    • Was it not the University of Surrey which developed cutting edge satellite technology to aid the UK’s first space exploration?  

    The answer is “Yes”, “Yes” and “Yes” again.  

    And these are but three examples of many more.  

    Earlier, I referenced overseas students.  Why do they come here ‒ these days at considerable financial cost?  It is because these young people – from far away – see our country as a global leader in Higher and Further Education.  People equate excellence in education with the United Kingdom, and it is our job to ensure they continue to do so.

    Yet we must be watchful as innovation changes our world.

    A mere thirty years ago, only a very few of our global population had access to the internet.  Today it is nearly universal, and almost impossible to imagine life without it.  

    We had high hopes of the internet, and many of them have been met.  

    But … the internet has its dark side, too, and – at its worst – it is very dark indeed.  

    As policymakers grapple with this, they must police Artificial Intelligence to inhibit ‒ and, if possible, prevent ‒ its misuse.  Education must navigate it, too ‒ and that challenge will be very great.

    I hope educators will not be too daunted.  Their role is crucial.  Scientific advance will ensure that education is a life-long journey, not merely a youthful rite of passage.  It is one of the principal sources of happiness, and success, and compassion – without which no conscience can be at ease.  We are all in debt to those who teach us.  

    To have such a responsibility is a unique vocation ‒ to my mind, among the first in any land ‒ 

    The legacy of education is our future, which is why this afternoon – on behalf of our country’s past, present and future pupils – it is my privilege to thank you all

  • Sir John Major’s Speech at the Sir Edward Heath Annual Lecture – 26 June 2025

    The speech made by Sir John Major on 26 June 2025 at Salisbury Cathedral.


    THE CHANGING POLITICAL LANDSCAPE

    AT HOME AND ABROAD:  A REALITY CHECK

    This occasion is intrinsically linked with Ted Heath and – with my memories of him – I am honoured to speak to you today.

    Ted was not an easy man to know.  He was a mass of contradictions ‒ and not always “user-friendly”.  He could be brusque, wooden, charmless, and yet had the gift to make friends for life, and supporters who admire and sustain his legacy.  

    A complex man, he wasn’t born to privilege, but rose to prominence by sheer ability.  His metier was policy, not presentation.  Facts – and logic – were his political weapons of choice.  

    His priority was country first.  Party came second.  And he led, not followed public opinion.

    Essentially an Englishman, his service during the Second World War forged his belief in the closest possible relationship between the United Kingdom and our neighbours in Europe.  

    A principled politician, he fought for this throughout his political life – and was right to do so.  Europe is a cause, temporarily in obeyance, but not lost.  It is still in play.  

    Ted had an active life beyond politics.  

    In his talent for sailing, classical music, the piano, and his love of conducting, he filled his life with passions far removed from the battleground of Westminster.  He loved – as Yehudi Menuhin put it:  “the wind, the land and the sea”.  

    There is a fascination about Ted’s career ‒ his rise, his rule, his fall ‒ that would have challenged even Shakespeare’s magical pen.

    I’ve no doubt the discerning eye of history will treat him more generously than his contemporaries and – with that judgement – I concur.  

    Which is why it is such a pleasure to be with you this afternoon.  Here, where Ted called home.

    *****

    Among the advantages of age is the experience of mistakes ‒ your own and those of others ‒ and the ability to learn from them.

    Advancing years allow time for reflection, and eases us from the bonds of political correctness and Party self-interest.  

    In that spirit, I would like to conduct a reality check.

    Imagine our world as a jigsaw, each piece in its place, laying before you, familiar and settled.  

    And then, of its own volition, the jigsaw begins to break up and take a new shape.

    This is our world as it changes, and it has not yet assumed a shape we can rely on ‒ nor with which we can be comfortable.  Nor can we be sure it will do so.

    We Britons are a piece of that jigsaw puzzle.  We fit where fate – and our own endeavours – take us.  

    For 80 years, we have been lucky to have lived under a rules-based system;  been spared long and costly international wars;  and – until recently – enjoyed a steady growth in national wellbeing.  

    Beyond any question America and China are the dominant forces in our modern world ‒ no other nation state comes close.  

    But neither of these two powerful nations offer the assurance of an ordered and peaceful future.  They are rivals in trade.  Opponents in politics.  

    What they are not are allies in building a better world.

    The elevation of Presidents Xi and Trump to great power ‒ the first not a democrat, and the second not always behaving like one ‒ helps explain the uncertainties that now exist.  

    Of these, there are many.  Moderate Parties of Left and Right are in crisis in France, where the extreme Right may win the next parliamentary and presidential elections.  

    The UK and Germany, too, face an insurgency from the intolerant Right. 

    Putin’s brutal invasion of Ukraine has erased the global peace dividend the West enjoyed after the fall of the Soviet Union.  

    We – among others – are now to spend more on defence, and to finance that by cutting aid to the world’s most wretched and helpless.  

    Many people, with voices that will never be heard, will suffer and die because countries have made this change in budgetary priorities.   

    It is short-sighted and – to my mind – callous.  And the fallout, over time, will be greater migrant demand to live in the richer countries.  

    The switch from care to conflict comes courtesy of Putin’s military ambitions.  He was, is, and will continue to be a menace to European peace.

    As a newly-minted super power, China seeks to dominate the international order and is using military and commercial muscle to expand her interests – and increase her influence.    

    China is not a democratic country ‒ indeed, she is an avowed opponent of democracy, being first amongst a rising number of nations that see democracy as an alien ‒ and inefficient ‒ form of government.

    For a long time the United States has been our closest, most trusted ally.  Twice, in the last century, her entry into a World War has been decisive.

    The display of American power in Iran a few days ago was awesome, but the situation is so dynamic that – if required – this matter is best addressed over questions.    

    For over 80 years, history and shared interests have kept America and the UK in lockstep.  But, we are on notice that we can no longer depend on that.  

    It is fanciful to believe the America of today is still the America we knew from Eisenhower to Obama.  But, demonstrably, she is not.

    After the Second World War, the hands that exercised power were working within a rules-based-system that is now being questioned and ‒ in part ‒ rejected, by voices within and beyond the Trump Administration.

    President Trump believes that enhancing American power takes precedence over the wellbeing of the wider international community.  

    Under her current leadership, America will not “pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend” if it conflicts with the President’s policy to “Make America Great Again.”

    His Vice-President rammed the new priority home:  “Europe is no longer a primary focus” for America.  It was a harsh truth.  

    If that is a settled judgement ‒ it tells the British and Europeans that we can no longer rely absolutely on the support – in all circumstances – of the nation that, for so many years, has been our strongest ally.

    Nor can we, with justice, simply blame America for this uncertainty.  For decades, Europe – collectively – has under-performed on defence expenditure, and must now repair the shortfall.  

    The President’s new approach was evident when he negotiated directly with Russia over the Ukraine war.  He did so without consulting NATO allies ‒ nor even Ukraine.  It was as though allies were irrelevant.  

    It has been an unsettling time.

    President Trump claimed the invasion of Ukraine would never have happened if he had been President ‒ but did not explain why not ‒ nor how it would have been averted.  

    He promised to end the war on “Day One” of his Presidency.  He did not.

    He believed he could bring “his dear friend” Putin to a deal to end the war.  He has not.  

    I accept President Trump wants peace.  But on what terms?  He demanded concessions from Ukraine – the attacked, and then proposed a settlement to aid Russia – the attacker.  

    Ukraine has been threatened, bullied, and had military and intelligence withdrawn as if she were the aggressor.  It was as though America had her arms around Putin’s shoulders, and her hands at Zelensky’s throat.  

    This turns reason on its head.  Such a posture may well encourage would-be aggressors everywhere, and bring fear to potential victims.

    Shifts in established American policy continue to cause uncertainty and confusion.  

    No-one envisaged a President:

    • threatening to take over nations like Canada or Greenland against their will;  
    • casting doubt on the US commitment to NATO;  
    • introducing tariffs that disrupt the world economy;  
    • withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement;  or 
    • treating immigrants ‒ even if illegal ‒ like trash to be thrown away.

    Whatever frustrations she may feel, does America realise how all this is viewed around the world? 

    Will uncertainty over future policy cause our allies in the East – Japan, South Korea, Philippines – to consider building their own nuclear capacity?  

    Will Saudi Arabia or Turkey?  Or, perhaps, others?

    The answer to those questions may unsettle our world.  The unwelcome vision arises of a dramatic increase in nuclear States.  The implications of that are truly terrifying.

    President Trump may achieve extraordinary things.  His very unpredictability promotes uncertainty – and sometimes fear – of what he might do next.  In this fashion, he gains compliance with his wishes.  

    The timid may crumble, the cautious may appease, but I hope the President understands that agreement under duress is false and unreliable.  

    If someone has their foot on your neck, you may comply with their wishes ‒ but you will never forget the foot.

    America is, by far, the most powerful nation in the world.  What she does will be followed by others.  Government by threat will create resentment and chaos.  It will not create calm.

    This is not America as I have known her.  This is not democracy as I understand it.  

    For every action in life, there is a reaction.  

    When President Trump speaks publicly – to chide or to threaten, he does not do so in a vacuum.  

    His voice echoes around the world, and what people hear has consequences to how they behave.

    What does Mr Putin think?  He is delighted.  So is President Xi.  Autocrats are thrilled to see the democratic world at odds with itself.  

    After all, if President Trump threatens to seize Canada, why should not Putin seize Ukraine?  Or Xi take over Taiwan?  

    Why should not other autocrats judge that world opinion will no longer react to a coup or a land grab?

    How many countries does that imperil?  How many lives does that sentence to a hopeless and miserable future?

    Much of the world accommodates America and China, hoping not to become victims to superpower malevolence.  

    Is this the rules-based world we have known?  Or is it to become Kipling’s Law of the Jungle?  

    Politics is about people, their hopes, their fears, their lives ‒ it is not just about deals or money or mineral wealth.  

    Perhaps I am too old and out of time, but should not politics – at its heart – be about high moral purpose?  Is the concept of “MAGA” – of widespread national self-interest – going to poison the well of decency in international relations?

    How did you feel when Elon Musk – the richest man in the world – removed aid from the poorest people on the planet?

    And how far does this negligence stretch?

    No-one lifted a finger a few months ago when the Venezuelan election was stolen.  Is democracy so shrivelled it no longer objects to the theft of a nation?

    In Gaza, is Israel solving a problem – or creating one?  

    How will the dis-possessed, the injured, the bereaved see Israel when the present fighting is done?

    Will not today’s death and destruction boost recruitment for tomorrow’s terror?

    I do not believe it is possible to totally eliminate Hamas:  it is an “idea” – a “doctrine” – as well as a terror group.  

    But every Palestinian ‒ man, woman and child ‒ is not a Hamas terrorist.  What compassion and help will be given to those whose homes and lives have been wrecked?  

    What of the crises in Syria and Sudan and the Congo?  Or the plight of the Afghan women?  Are they simply to be forgotten?

    Is starvation now a legitimate weapon of war?  If so, to whom can the helpless turn?  

    Who will lead the world in helping those who cannot help themselves?  Will our modern world cynically walk by on the other side?  

    Is barbarianism now acceptable if the barbarian is strong enough – or the victim without friends.  

    Can it be that our world is so exhausted, politics so tainted, self-interest so predominant that it has abandoned compassion?  Is might now right?  Has the law, human decency, and political morality been cast aside?  

    Or is it, perhaps, as simple as this:  that our world is now beginning to elect leaders concerned only about national self-interest?  

    If so, if politics leads countries to hunker down in their own little trenches of interest, ignore reason, by-pass diplomacy, forego enlightened self-interest – 

    then heaven help us all.

    I daresay the questions I have asked will be thought to be unworldly.  If so, I despair ‒ because political action and political morality should be allies, not strangers.

    And, if we are not concerned for ourselves, is this really the world we wish to hand on to the next generation?

    I think not – and am encouraged by the aid given to Ukraine:  for Ukraine is also fighting for our own future.

    It is evident that we must enhance our own defence capability.  

    A welcome increase in defence expenditure has been announced but, I fear, it is only the first instalment of what will be required.  

    My guess is that, over the next few years, core military expenditure will have to rise way above 3½ % of GDP.  That is a significant burden, requiring a reassessment of priorities.  

    We will not be alone:  other European countries face a similar dilemma if Europe is to rebuild her own defences with weapons appropriate to tomorrow’s challenges.  If they do not ‒ they will be culpable.

    I admit to a concern about this.  Will countries maintain higher defence expenditure if the current crisis eases?  History suggests some may not.  Self-protection tells us they must.

    UNITED KINGDOM

    Let me turn to our own country.

    Britain is at a low ebb.  Our economy has been near stagnant for almost two decades, and relatively weakening since the Second World War.  The Pound Sterling is worth one-third of its post-war value against the mighty American Dollar.

    Countries with large populations have risen in economic influence simply because of their size.  That continues – and is inexorable.

    Growth at home has been feeble since the 2008 sub-prime crisis.  Productivity is half the level of the 1990s.  We are deeply in debt.  Taxes are too high, and confidence and investment too low.  

    Our military capacity has fallen steadily.  Our Armed Forces are inadequately funded, ill-equipped for present risks, and diminished in manpower.

    Our great institutions ‒ Parliament, Politics, The Church, Police, Press, Public Services no longer have the respect they once enjoyed.  

    This is a sad litany, but a sobering reality.  

    Is our position recoverable?  Of course, it is ‒ but the task will require a supreme national effort.  

    Our country needs a climate of hope and help ‒ not hindrance.

    The past can offer us some comfort.  I grew up in the 1940s/50s when our country was all-but-bankrupt, and facing an even more challenging future than now.

    It was the mid-1950s before food rationing ended.  

    A new house then was less expensive than a second-hand car is today but ‒ to put that in perspective ‒ my weekly salary, in 1959, would not now buy two cups of coffee at Pret.

    So it has not been 80 years of failure.  We have come a long way.  

    Living standards are immeasurably improved.  So is healthcare and life expectancy.  

    I hope past success can encourage policy makers to believe that the problems before us can be overcome ‒ but with the caveat that yesterday’s solutions will not meet tomorrow’s challenges.

    To hear modern politicians channelling their inner Attlee or Thatcher is not leadership:  it is nostalgia.  

    The lessons of Attlee and Thatcher are that acute difficulties can be overcome ‒ but not by looking backwards:  that is for historians.  Politicians must look forward.

    Governments have a duty to convey reality to the electorate.  Promises that are undeliverable will only add to national disillusion.

    We cannot recover without growth.  We cannot have growth without public and private investment.  And we cannot have that, without incentive and reward.  We know this, but appear to ignore it.

    The UK has many attractions ‒ an open economy;  an incorruptible legal system;  some worldclass universities;  high-level capability in dispute resolution;  life sciences;  finance;  the service sector;  AI;  space technology, and much else.

    More can be done:  lighter touch regulation;  much more skill training;  a closer relationship with Europe;  and ‒ please ‒ a reformed tax system that does not penalise success.  

    We have to make an attractive offer to investors and traders, and offer hope and opportunity to our disillusioned young.

    We need to applaud success and innovation.  We need to encourage entrepreneurs to enter our country, and not leave it taking their ideas and their money elsewhere.

    If we crush ambition and initiative we will sink into long years of slow growth or no growth.  To avoid sclerosis we must open our mind to every path to wellbeing.  

    And so I come to Europe.

    EUROPE

    Here lies a difficulty.  One whiff of collaboration with Europe and voices cry out we are “betraying the cause”, “surrendering”,  throwing away Brexit “freedoms”.

    What nonsense this is.  The only Brexit “freedom” I’ve yet seen is the freedom to be poorer.  And we’ve not only seen that:  we’re experiencing it.

    I don’t seek controversy ‒ merely reasoned debate.  One obvious contribution to higher growth is to improve our trading relations with our nearest neighbours.

    My views on leaving Europe are no secret.  

    Our exit was a gift to countries that wish us ill, and a shock to those that wish us well.  It has scarred the body politic, and may yet be written on the tomb of the Conservative Party.  

    I am no longer in politics.  No more at the centre of events.  But it breaks my heart that the Brexit saga has so poisoned our politics, damaged our economy, and undermined our national standing in the world. 

    I continue to search for the “benefits of Brexit” but they are as elusive as Lord Lucan.  Some politicians talk of them ‒ but are unable to tell us what they are, or where they may be found.

    What is ever-present are the dis-benefits of Brexit.  Any overall assessment of them is a damning indictment of the policy.

    Eminent economists – the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, the Office of Budget Responsibility, Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs among them – have on average estimated the long-term loss to our GDP to be about 4%, resulting from a fall in trade volumes.

    The loss builds up to that percentage over time.  But, even if our national income didn’t rise at all between now and the mid-2030s, a loss of 4% would amount to over £100 billion pounds.  

    Consider that for a moment.  One hundred billion pounds less of each year’s national income.  Say it quietly and it’s just a statistic.  But it isn’t – it’s real.

    One hundred billion of our future income that we threw away when we left Europe.

    That GDP loss leads to a fall in government income.

    So, Government’s share of this loss – at present tax rates – would be nearly 

    £40 billion pounds.  

    That’s £40 billion of more taxes, or less spending, or most probably more borrowing.  

    Of course, as members of the EU we paid a contribution to Brussels – just under £10 billion pounds a year when we left.  And, to be sure, that might have risen.  But it would still leave us with a very big fiscal loss.

    Indeed, if you allow for the spiral of loss – extra interest payments to finance the extra borrowing, and so on – you quickly get to some very big numbers indeed.

    In 2018 – after we had decided to leave – the Treasury estimated the extra borrowing at £72 billion by 2035, if we didn’t do a deal that gave us market access.   

    That same Treasury report suggests that – if we had negotiated a European Economic Area scenario – with UK membership of the Single Market – the long-term loss would fall to £22.5 billion.

    And, if the Government had managed to meet the negotiating ambitions of its own White Paper, the loss would be a mere £1 billion.

    But these ambitions were simply tossed aside to “Get Brexit Done” and a “hard” Brexit was rushed through at great future cost.

    Bad choices won.  The British people lost.

    I am glad to see that Keir Starmer is slowly and painfully beginning to work his way back into a better trading relationship with the EU.

    Anything that helps to bring that £72 billion threat down is welcome – especially at a time when other tariff barriers are rising.  

    But the Prime Minister’s unwise pre-election disavowal of the Single Market means we are still suffering a substantial fiscal penalty – far bigger than the controversial claim that the Government “inherited a £22 billion “black hole””.  

    That claim is arguably illusory – and certainly exaggerated:  the Single Market “black hole” is very real.

    And that’s not all.  

    Before we left the EU, we received loans from the European Investment Bank for capital investment.  We did well.  

    In our final years, we received about £6.8 billion a year.  For comparison, France – despite her bigger economy – received some £6.6 billion.

    Brexiteers claimed we’d fill the gap from our own replacement public investment institutions.  

    But we haven’t.  So far, these institutions have been lending about £2.3 billion a year.

    The effect is clear:  if we had not left the EU, our annual public sector investment could have been far higher.  

    But it wasn’t ‒ so we lost tens of billions in investment ‒ amid a deteriorating infrastructure in pothole Britain.

    I will not bother to cost the employment of tens of thousands of additional civil servants to handle Brexit – nor the exit costs of leaving the Union.

    In response, Brexit supporters may say:  “Ah!  But we have new trade deals”.  That is true ‒ but to offset the loss?  Hardly.  

    The new trade deals are welcome, but modest, and nowhere close to compensating for the loss of European trade.

    In the last five years, our trade grew at a miserly 0.3% a year ‒ one-fifteenth of the growth between 1980-2008.  Is Brexit the problem?  In part, yes.

    In one respect, the Brexit agreement was unique:  it is the first ever trade deal to erect new trade barriers rather than eliminate them.  

    Ted Health would never have been deflected from the importance of European trade.  Nor would Margaret Thatcher:  it is why she entered the Single Market.  

    That is the distinction between statesmanship and showmanship.

    Even in retrospect, it is hard to comprehend what we have done.  

    We – the UK – are a trading nation ‒ more so than any of our competitors.

    International trade contributes one-fifth of our economy – more than China or America – or the EU.  Yet we, the world’s pre-eminent trader, walked away from the richest free trade area the world has ever seen when it was on our very doorstep.  

    No wonder our competitors thought we had taken leave of our senses.

    We lost more than money.  In diplomatic terms, Brexit achieved an outcome that our governments had sought to avoid for centuries:  it united Continental opinion against us, making it hostile to British interests, and less open to British persuasion.  

    We still face a choice.  One day, we will either have to accept change ‒ or offer our country a lower standard of living ‒ perhaps permanently.  

    What should we do?

    I am not emotionally a European ‒ I am too British for that.

    I do not advocate re-joining the EU as a full Member.  This is politically unrealistic at present, and will be a decision for a later generation.

    But, for now, we can recover lost trade by moving towards re-entering the Customs Union and the Single Market.  I know for some this is a big and contentious decision.  But ‒ if we think small we will be small.

    As I look forward, I see good, practical reasons for building up our relationship again.  We British are a mere 70 million people in a world of nine thousand million.

    I believe, in every way, our four nations will be better off, more secure, safer and richer, as part of a much larger and more powerful bloc.  That is true now – and will become even more so in the lifetime of our children and grandchildren.  

    Of course we will survive economically on our own:  perhaps, in due time, we will even thrive.  But my fear is wider.

    In a world dominated by the United States and China, a dis-united, weak Europe will forever be a subordinate demandeur;  an on-looker of great events;  a follower not a leader.

    And Britain, France, Germany, Italy and all Europe will no longer have the confidence, the security, the achievements that should be our legacy to our successors.

    My affection for Europe is not for what it was, or is, but what it can be.

    The world is changing, and we must change with it.  

    I don’t wish to see our world dominated by two self-interested super-powers.  

    All of Europe ‒ with the UK as an ally ‒ can be a counter-weight.  Events are pushing us towards greater self-dependency, and we must embrace that.  

    I do not underestimate the difficulties of enhancing our relationship with Europe.  

    But – as we look ahead – Europe will need us as we will need them.  We are not supplicants, we are partners.  And a joint partnership will strengthen the whole of Europe.

    When we left the EU, the Europeans – feeling unwanted – left the UK, only to be replaced by a far greater number of migrants from around the world.

    Of course we must reassure our nation about freedom of movement and migration.  But note this:  the Brexit promise was that ‒ by leaving the EU ‒ we could control our borders:  we have not.  The situation has worsened not improved.  

    This migrant problem is wider than our own country.  It is most likely to be solved with European-wide co-operation, not British isolation. 

    But all our ills did not originate with domestic errors.

    Brexit was certainly self-inflicted.  But the financial collapse in 2007/8 over sub-prime mortgages was notNor was Covid.  Nor was the Ukraine war.  Nor was the shifting relationship with America.

    * * * * *

    Let me close as I opened – with the image of that jigsaw puzzle.  

    A puzzle which – through the ages – has been broken up, rearranged, refashioned – and then re-moulded all over again.

    For 80 years, that puzzle was familiar.  We knew where the pieces fell.  There was order.  

    It is now breaking up again, and where the pieces will fall is uncertain.      

    But no jigsaw can be completed by looking at each piece in isolation.  They must all fit together to create the desired tableau.

    Each one of us – from my generation down – needs to understand where the world is now, and where each piece of that new jigsaw needs to fall to secure harmony and economic security.  

    That is the reality.  It is work in progress.  

    And, for all our sakes, that endeavour must not fail.