Sir John Major’s interview with the Independent on 26 June 2026 to mark ten years since the Brexit vote.
Tag: European Union
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Sir John Major’s Interview on BBC’s Newsnight – 1 May 2026
The interview with Sir John Major broadcast by BBC Newsnight on 1 May 2026.
Matt Chorley: Sir John Major was born on 29 March 1943 to Gwen, a librarian and part-time dance teacher, and Tom Major-Ball, a former trapeze artist and music hall performer who later ran a successful garden ornaments business. Young John underperformed at school in Brixton, leaving with just three O-Levels. But a chance meeting with his local MP led him into politics. He became a Conservative MP in Margaret Thatcher’s 1979 landslide victory, then rose through the ranks pretty quickly to become first Foreign Secretary and then Chancellor. Within 15 months of taking his first great office of state, he reached the greatest, replacing Margaret Thatcher as Prime Minister in November 1990 at the age of 47. He went on to win the 1992 election with the most votes ever recorded for a British political party before losing to Tony Blair’s New Labour landslide in 1997.
I’m delighted Sir John joins me now. It’s great to see you. Thank you. Can you take us back to that church fete, the turning point, it seems, the moment where you discovered politics?
Sir John Major: Well, I discovered it before that. I read a lot of history and politics always fascinated me. I remember the church fete very well. The vicar was a delightful man. So was his daughter. We were friends. I was at the church fete and the local Labour Member of Parliament, Colonel Lipton, Marcus Lipton, who had been there since 1945, attended every church fete in the constituency. I don’t think church fetes were legitimate unless Marcus was there.
He talked to me and we talked about politics. He must have realised that I naturally moved to the right of centre rather than the left of centre. But he saw I was interested and he kindly offered me some seats in the gallery in order to watch Parliament in session. I did that and I saw a small part of a very boring part of the year really, but not for me. I was thrilled. It was the debate on the Budget in the mid-1950s and I saw on the benches Iain Macleod, Harold Macmillan was there, Rab Butler was there for a brief time. When I walked into that building, it reached out and grabbed me. When I left, I thought, this is where I wish to be, and my mind never moved away from that.
Matt Chorley: It didn’t focus you on your schoolwork, though. You clearly didn’t think, “I need to knuckle down if I want to get into the House of Commons.” In fact, I was looking, you didn’t do all that well at school. You were one of only eight Prime Ministers ever not to go to university, a grammar school boy, not privately educated. Do you think that now we’d call that a great backstory, but did you feel like that held you back in your pursuit of getting into politics?
Sir John Major: Of course it did. Absolutely. And it was very stupid. The background to that is not straightforward. My father was 65 when I was born. When I was 10 or 11 and went to Rutlish, having passed the 11-plus, he was very sick and also nearly blind with cataracts. He had lost all our money. We didn’t have much, but what we had he had lost in a business venture. So we moved from a bungalow in Worcester Park to two rooms, four storeys up, in an old Victorian house in Brixton. That is where we lived.
Matt Chorley: Is it still there?
Sir John Major: It is. It’s still there. It’s hardly changed. We lived in just the two rooms. There was nowhere there to study. They insisted that I stayed at Rutlish, which was at Wimbledon, so I had to travel back and forth from Brixton to Wimbledon every day. I was pretty rebellious at school. I didn’t like it. I wasn’t comfortable there. I felt alienated by life. It was extremely stupid. So I just didn’t work, except at the things that interested me, which were mainly history and English. The result of that was a lamentable record at school and the need to get up at 05.00 each morning after I left school aged 16, studying, taking more O levels and a banking degree and other matters.
Matt Chorley: These days, the House of Commons is very different to the House of Commons that you entered. Fewer trade unionists in the Labour Party, fewer business people in the Conservative Party and so on. A lot has changed. Do you think that has changed for the better?
Sir John Major: No, I don’t. I certainly don’t. If you take both parties, if you look at the Labour Party, and I have no animosity against the Labour Party. I grew up in a Labour area. I didn’t agree with their policies, but I saw decent men trying to do a decent job on Lambeth Council.
I looked at the Labour Party when I got into the House of Commons and there were lots of ordinary, everyday people, people without money, without privilege, working-class people who really knew their constituents. They may not have got degrees in English, but my goodness, they knew how their constituents lived. They cared about that and they represented that in the House of Commons. That doesn’t happen in the Labour Party now. They are much younger, much better educated and, in my judgement, much less close to their constituents than their predecessors were.
You can see it on the Conservative side. Where are the businessmen? Where are the soldiers? Where are the people who would have been a staple part of the party in the 1950s, 60s and 70s? They are very sparse now on the Conservative benches. There has been a change in nature and I think that is partly because of the way in which politics is disregarded by so many people these days. Many of the people who would be a very happy addition to Parliament simply will not contemplate going into politics. I hear that theme again and again and again. There are many reasons for it, which we both know and I think the whole world knows, but it is a loss to Parliament in my view.
Matt Chorley: Would the John Major of when you first went into politics, from your background and experience, consider going into politics now?
Sir John Major: I couldn’t not do so. I am out of politics now and I had no regrets about leaving politics when I was in my early 50s. No regrets whatsoever. But there are moments when I see things happening and I wish I was still there, because I would have a voice to point out things that I had seen being done before and I know they went wrong. Experience and a long memory, an historic memory, in Parliament is very useful. It can stop many mistakes being made. So there are moments when I wish I was back in politics, but they are fleeting moments and they are entirely overridden by the fact I couldn’t take the divorce if I were still in politics.
Matt Chorley: Norma would have something to say?
Sir John Major: Norma would have something to say. And so would my children.
Matt Chorley: Let’s talk about this. You become an MP and most people, when they become an MP, even if they only say it to themselves at night, probably privately harbour the idea that one day they might be called upon to become Prime Minister. But it happens to you in 1990. The Conservatives had been trailing in the polls for months. Geoffrey Howe’s devastating speech to Margaret Thatcher leads to Michael Heseltine’s challenge. You, though, Sir John, miss much of the drama because for some time you had been nursing a painful wisdom tooth and you were under the dentist’s anaesthetic while everyone else was plotting. Yet you wake up, you are coming round from the anaesthetic and the conversation almost immediately turns, with Norma and your daughter Elizabeth, to the prospect of you possibly throwing your hat in the ring. Was it the drugs?
Sir John Major: Well, you may say so. Others may have wished so. No, it wasn’t. The tooth has become a subject of myth over many years, with people saying he didn’t have a tooth problem at all, he was just getting out of the way and plotting, which is entirely absurd. If anyone would care to go to the hospital in Essex, I had the wisdom tooth out under full anaesthetic. It was an abscess under a wisdom tooth that I had been nursing for a couple of months. I had a hospital appointment. I wasn’t going to cancel it. I had suffered from that enough. I didn’t anticipate, frankly, the degree of drama with Michael’s challenge to Margaret.
But when Margaret decided she wasn’t going to stand, I was approached by a lot of people to see whether I would stand. I hadn’t been contemplating it. I can honestly say that. My daughter was coming up to A levels, my son to O levels. I had just got the job I really wanted in politics, which was Chancellor. I can honestly say, hand on heart, that I was not contemplating being Prime Minister.
But I was approached by a number of people. I then learned that some people had been canvassing on my behalf. I said to my parliamentary private secretary, “Look, I don’t know how many votes. I don’t want to humiliate myself by getting a few votes.” He was a very good listener, one of those rare politicians who listens rather than talks, and he said, “Well, I think I can guarantee you 150 votes if you stand. Dare you say no to that?” I couldn’t really.
I remembered the old Iain Macleod maxim. It was Macleod as much as any individual politician who took me into politics. He was a magnificent orator, not just in how he spoke but what he said. He once said, “If the ball comes out of the ruck, you grab it. It may never come out again.” That was pretty much how I felt. I was confident that I wasn’t going to be humiliated, so I decided I would stand.
Matt Chorley: You write in your memoirs that for large parts of that period, actually right up until almost the moment you won, you were stuffed with painkillers. It was an extraordinary moment, with you dealing with this pain in your mouth while each day getting closer to becoming Prime Minister.
Sir John Major: Yes. The campaign only lasted a week and it was the best-natured campaign I think I have seen in all my years in politics, between Michael Heseltine, Douglas Hurd and myself. We all knew one another extremely well. I was particularly close to Douglas Hurd. I didn’t know Michael quite so well. It only lasted a week.
As the campaign began, the painkillers were winning over the pain quite comfortably, so we sailed through the week’s campaigning. It wasn’t a difficult week of campaigning because we weren’t in the business of slagging off one another. We had worked together in the past, we would work together in the future. Whatever had happened, the three of us would have been together in the Cabinet. So it was a very good-natured campaign and it went quickly.
Matt Chorley: Michael Heseltine has, of course, concluded that he who wields the knife doesn’t wear the crown. If you are the person who leaps first, you end up not getting the top job. Do you think he is right about that? Are there lessons for today?
Sir John Major: I’m not entirely sure about that. Lloyd George might argue to the contrary, and so might others. I think it can be a disadvantage. It depends on the nature of the relationship between the departing Prime Minister and the wielder of the knife.
Matt Chorley: Tell me about that moment when you become Prime Minister. You go to the Palace. You had obviously been into Number 10 before, but it is very different going as a minister than it is as Prime Minister. What is going through your mind during the drive?
Sir John Major: Several things really. Firstly, I wondered how this ceremony goes. Does kissing hands mean literally? It doesn’t. It means figuratively. What exactly are we going to talk about? So I was thinking about the Queen and how that would work out.
A different compartment of my mind was thinking about what I was going to say when I got back to the doorstep. That was certainly occupying my mind. Two other things were occupying my mind. A new Prime Minister within two years of an election: we were going to have to have some Cabinet changes, and that was going to be awkward. I had only been in a Cabinet for three years. I was younger than most of the Cabinet. I had been there less time than most of the Cabinet. I was going to have to say to very senior people who had been there much longer than me that it was time to go and to bring some new blood into the Cabinet. Nobody likes destroying someone’s career. Only sadists like that.
Beyond that, I was very conscious of the problems we faced. You touched on some of them. The party was deeply split on the European Union, deeply. I felt as though I was standing on either side of a widening chasm. The poll tax was still around and had to be destroyed. Michael Heseltine had to come back into the Cabinet. Those last two points were bound inevitably to upset Margaret Thatcher: her poll tax, I was going to have to abolish it; and her assassin, as she saw Michael, was going to have to come into the Cabinet. So one could see immediately that there were going to be problems that lay ahead. It was only a short ride from Downing Street to Buckingham Palace, but I remember very plainly, almost as though different components of the mind were thinking of these things.
Matt Chorley: It is often said that being Prime Minister is a lonely job because so few people have been there and done it. When you were there, still alive were former Prime Ministers Margaret Thatcher, Jim Callaghan, Harold Wilson, Ted Heath and Alec Douglas-Home. Were you able to reach out? Clearly the relationship with Margaret was difficult because of the circumstances of you becoming Prime Minister. Is there a gang of former Prime Ministers who all talk to each other?
Sir John Major: I had no difficulty with the other Prime Ministers at all. The one who from time to time was most helpful was Jim Callaghan, who had a similar background to me and understood the difficulties. He understood the restraints in 1990s society, and from time to time he was very helpful. Harold Wilson by then was clearly ill, and when I talked to him we met in the corridors and discussed Huddersfield Town Football Club, of which Harold was a tremendous supporter.
So I had no difficulties there. When I met Margaret, there was never any difficulty. The first time I met her was at a by-election in 1978 in Berwick and East Lothian, which we lost. I was very impressed, because it was thought we were going to win the by-election. She had been there for a morning and came in and talked to me just after lunch, and she knew we were going to lose it. Her sensitive political antennae had grasped the fact that it wasn’t right, and I was hugely impressed by that.
I had a very good relationship with her. We had a furious fight when I was a young whip. We disagreed severely about something and everyone thought my career was over. The next day she came and sat next to me on the bench and said, “Well, we’d better regroup and discuss these matters again.” Three weeks later she gave me a job in government. I remember her saying to me when she gave it to me, “It’s the job I started with. If you learn about social security, you’ll be better equipped than most of the parliamentary party for the future.”
Matt Chorley: You mentioned that when you became Prime Minister, you knew there was a general election certainly within two years. In that election in 1992, there was an expectation that Labour were going to win it under Neil Kinnock.
Sir John Major: More than an expectation. It was almost written into the stars.
Matt Chorley: What was it for you? There has been endless discussion: was it the Sheffield rally, was it the soapbox? What was it for you?
Sir John Major: I never quite agreed with the way the opinion polls were going all the way through the campaign. It may simply have been my naivety, but everywhere I went I got a very large and warm welcome. Everywhere. There was no hostility. I was surprised about that. We had been in power for 11 years and people were plainly tired of the problems over the poll tax and Europe, and yet there was an immensely warm reception everywhere I went.
So I had this blind faith that, having come from where I did to where I was, it wasn’t going to end that quickly. I thought throughout the campaign that we would win. We had a very large lead in votes, you may recall. It was only a slender lead of 21 in seats, but we had a seven per cent lead in votes. We should have had a majority of 70 or so if the votes had been distributed, but of course they weren’t.
Matt Chorley: The record for any party in a general election still stands. Given the way our politics is going, with more and more parties, do you think that record will ever be broken?
Sir John Major: Ever is a long time. But I don’t think it is going to be broken in the near future, because there is going to be a greater dispersal of votes, which raises a whole series of other questions.
Matt Chorley: Soon after that 1992 election you discussed with Chris Patten the idea that you had stretched the elastic and defied expectations. You then spend the next five years assuming that you wouldn’t win in 1997. I wondered whether it would be better for governments if they behaved like they weren’t going to win and did what they thought was right by the country, rather than chasing percentage points in the polls.
Sir John Major: There was a bit of that. It sounds rather gallant to say you proceed entirely on that basis. Of course we wanted to win the election. But we managed to find a way of losing it quite comprehensively, and we had a lot of assistance from my colleagues in doing so.
For Europe, there was a changing of the guard in 1992. The elderly members who had been in the war or soon after and in the services were very pro-European in the Conservative Party because they never wanted to see a European war again. A lot of them retired in 1992 and were replaced by much younger and more recently baked Conservatives who had a much more Eurosceptic view. So the huge majority for Europe in the Conservative Party that existed in 1991 had gone in 1992. We faced a completely different parliamentary party. Although we had a majority of 21 nominally, on European matters we barely had a majority at all. Very soon, with by-elections, that bare majority was whittled away.
Matt Chorley: Was it then, in 1992, that the seeds of Brexit were sown in that generational shift in the Conservative Party?
Sir John Major: They were there before. Going right back to Enoch Powell and others, there were people who were, let me say, unenthusiastic, which would be a kind way of putting it, about Europe. But it was in the 1990s that the numbers began to grow. They began to grow because of opposition to the Maastricht Treaty, and that was very odd. You may say, why is it odd? Because the Maastricht Treaty did all sorts of extraordinary things, but every one of those things was actually preordained in the 1986 Single European Act. We had signed up to a whole range of things that were in the Maastricht Treaty, and the very people who had signed up to that treaty now opposed it, and opposed it violently. The new members followed them, and they became more and more of a thorn in the side.
Matt Chorley: In 1993, you were caught on camera calling some of your Eurosceptic Cabinet ministers “bastards”. Do you have any regrets about that?
Sir John Major: I remember that very well. It was a BBC feed that was left on when I was speaking privately to a single person, and the feed crept under the door and they chose to use it. Of course I shouldn’t have said that. My only excuse is that it was true.
Matt Chorley: As the pressure built over time and you faced more criticism, in 1995 you pushed what many thought was the nuclear button and challenged your opponents to put up or shut up. One of our listeners, Mike, got in touch and said, “My question to John Major would be: what would you do if you were in Keir Starmer’s shoes, assuming local elections are bad as well? Would you advise doing what you did, put up or shut up, or is this a case of different party, different circumstances, different times?”
Sir John Major: I think the circumstances are very different and the times are very different. Enough has been said by enough people about that particular issue. I don’t really wish to add to it.
Matt Chorley: Did you think you would win when you did that back in the 1990s?
Sir John Major: I wasn’t sure. I was prepared for the fact that I might have to resign. I didn’t think I was going to be defeated in the ballot, but I had put in a sealed envelope the number of votes I had to have in order, in my mind, to credibly stay. We exceeded that number by three votes. So it was very close. Four votes less and I would have resigned.
Matt Chorley: When you weren’t dealing with your own MPs, you were dealing with Tony Blair in the latter stages across the despatch box. Prime Minister’s Questions is the part of politics that most people see on the news, and he was pretty remorseless to you during PMQs. “I lead my party. He follows his.” Calling it “weak, weak, weak”. Did any part of you enjoy Prime Minister’s Questions?
Sir John Major: It was a very good line. I don’t know who wrote it for Tony, but it was extremely good. If I were in his position, I might have done exactly the same thing, because I was in a position where, whatever I did, half the party would disagree with it. I was trying to bring the party together. My fear from the moment I became Prime Minister was that the European issue could break the Conservative Party apart, as free trade had done in the past. That was very inhibiting as to what you could do, and it provided Tony with that opening.
Matt Chorley: You also faced a lot of hostility from the media during that period.
Sir John Major: Surely not.
Matt Chorley: It is said, and I have interviewed people who worked with you at the time, that there was a feeling among some that you focused too much on the media, that you read the papers too closely. With the benefit of hindsight, do you think they were right?
Sir John Major: Possibly. But it’s difficult to know what you’re facing unless you hear about it and read about it. It is very easy to say. I seem to recall it was Franklin Roosevelt who read 18 newspapers a day, something of that sort. Yes, I suppose you could say I wasted too much time reading things that were unnecessary, but you needed to be prepared. If you are suddenly asked a question and you don’t know why the question has come, you could be in a very difficult situation.
Senior politicians face that today with social media. They may be going around the country, they’ll be stopped, they’ll be asked a question about an event that has happened on the other side of the world, and they don’t know of the event. Sometimes they are foolish enough to commit themselves and get themselves into a great deal of difficulty.
Matt Chorley: I was thinking about the way that everything has sped up, rolling news and then social media. Thinking of a drama like Black Wednesday, do you think you could have survived Black Wednesday in a world of social media, with the sort of frenzy that people whip themselves up into?
Sir John Major: It could hardly have been worse if social media had been there. There is a great deal behind that. Many of the myths in it still survive, but it was extremely difficult. It lingered a long time and it marked us.
There were two things about Black Wednesday really. Firstly, when we were forced out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism after a market turmoil that began in northern Europe, not with us, and injudicious remarks by the governor of the Bundesbank led them to concentrate on sterling, which was very unhelpful indeed.
When we were forced out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism, I was already in discussion with the policy unit about how we could leave it, because its purpose had been to bring down inflation, and it had done that. Many people hated the ERM because they thought it was a stepping stone to the euro and that we were going to join the single currency. That was never going to happen while I was there. I wasn’t going to join the single currency. We weren’t ready for it. Parliament wouldn’t have accepted it and I didn’t like it anyway.
We went into the Exchange Rate Mechanism because we had failed to get inflation down with every other policy. We and our predecessors, in Margaret’s time, in Ted’s time, in Jim Callaghan’s time, in Harold Wilson’s time, had seen inflation come back again and again and destroy parties. I was determined that we would stick with the ERM until we had beaten inflation. And we did. We enjoyed the benefit of that right up to about 2010. So the incoming Labour government inherited a low-inflationary position and a very good economy in 1997.
But because we had fallen out of the ERM, that masked the changes in the economy and the changes in interest rates. We got none of the credit a government would normally have got for that simply because we were thought to have been incompetent because we were forced out of the ERM.
Matt Chorley: So it was a political impact rather than an economic catastrophe?
Sir John Major: It was a political catastrophe, but it wasn’t an economic catastrophe. The economy could then sustain leaving the ERM. The difficulty was how to get out without the markets thinking you were weakening the anti-inflationary policy. That was the difficulty that we didn’t solve. So when we were thrown out, it was catastrophic politically, but it had done its job.
I felt so strongly about inflation, and I will put it in this personal way because it is how I felt. When we were living in those two rooms, there was barely a week when the money did not run out before the week. I saw my mother go downstairs and borrow money to see us through the week, then desperately try and find some way to pay it back, then repeat the exercise week after week after week. I knew what that was like, and I knew that was what inflation did not just to my family but to families all over the country. I hated inflation with a passion, and I would rather have been forced out of government and out of politics than have given up on the anti-inflationary programme. That was the ERM.
The other point I would make about it is that with all my critics, I remember even the Daily Telegraph had banner headlines saying “At last we’re going to have some economic discipline” on the day I went in. It is amazing how successes have many fathers and failures are orphans.
Matt Chorley: Can I ask you about Spitting Image? Did you watch Spitting Image? We had various questions sent in from people asking about you being portrayed as the grey man of politics, despite having the background you came from, winning a general election and beating older politicians.
Sir John Major: Politics is a rough old trade. That was originally a joke across the tea room by a friend of mine when my hair started to go grey when I was about 48. That is where it came from. It was a very useful way to portray something quite different and it was used mercilessly, because politics is sometimes a rather fierce trade. But you know that when you go into it. There’s no point crying over it.
Matt Chorley: Did you watch it at the time?
Sir John Major: I stopped watching it when I saw the portrayals of Norman Tebbit and Margaret Thatcher, which I thought were downright crude. So I did watch it occasionally, but when I began to feature in it in an indelicate way, I thought the same people who told me I ought not to read the newspapers now said, “Why didn’t you watch Spitting Image?”
Matt Chorley: Do you watch any political TV shows? The Thick of It, Yes Minister, or was it all a bit too much like work?
Sir John Major: The only one I watched was Yes Minister, which I thought was pure genius. It got so close to a parody of reality. I didn’t think The Thick of It quite achieved that. I didn’t watch that very much.
Matt Chorley: Can I ask you about the job of being Prime Minister and how you approached it? Since you were there, we have had seven or eight Prime Ministers. Is it getting harder?
Sir John Major: In some ways, yes. It is certainly getting harder because of the external pressure of social media. That is undoubtedly getting harder. On the other hand, newspapers matter less than they did politically. They are not as powerful as they were in the 70s, 80s and 90s.
The problems are wider today, and there seems to be a shorter time frame in which people feel they can deal with problems and push them aside. Most of the big problems we have in this country at the moment are long-term problems. How are we going to cope with an ever-increasing number of elderly people who will live longer and need more medicine and more expensive medicine? How are we going to prepare for that? How are we going to prepare for people having their own pensions when the Government keeps producing measures that will reduce the private pensions that people actually earn and save for in their own lifetime? They are forcing more people into state assistance when they retire by the policies they are following now. That is not only wrong, it is plain stupid.
Then there are other things like climate change. Some people deny climate change. I don’t know what planet they are living on. When they say, “I don’t believe in climate change”, it’s a cop-out. It means they needn’t put the money towards the policy and they can spend it on something else that is more politically popular. But I only have to look at my own garden. The daffodils come up six weeks earlier. The climate is different. The ice caps are not in my garden, by the way, but the ice caps are melting and changing the positions inside the oceans. There are more hurricanes. There are much more extreme weather events. The climate is changing.
Those people who say, “Let’s push it back a bit. Let’s not do anything. Let’s do it a little more slowly so we can spend a little money on something else” are saying to my children, your children and their grandchildren, “Tough luck, chaps. We’re not only leaving you a difficult economy with too many old people that you can’t afford to care for. We’re going to leave you with climate change that we should have put right for you and didn’t.”
The first role of any government, in my view, is to leave something better for the next generation than your generation inherited. This is not done now. The youngsters of today are inheriting a more difficult world and a less favourable world than my generation, and their successors may be in exactly the same position unless we now begin to take seriously those very long-term problems.
I’m sorry that’s a long, tedious answer, but I feel very strongly that it demeans politics. You are not there as a politician as if it is a game show. You are not there just to provide fodder for the media and project your own career. You are there to deal with problems that ordinary people elect you to deal with. We are a representative democracy. We send representatives to Parliament to make sure our lives are better. If you ignore and deny those issues, our lives will not get better and those Parliaments will have failed.
Matt Chorley: Some of those issues you are talking about, changes to pensions and so on, are unfolding under the Labour Government. But some of the things, climate change and net zero, those are ideas which are taking hold in the Conservative Party as well.
Sir John Major: I am not making a point against any one government. It has been going on for quite a long time. Let me put it to you in this one question. You know politics better than most people, I would guess. When did you last hear a senior politician deliver a detailed lecture about the problems we face and what we must do to make those problems better over the next 30 years? Can you remember such a speech?
Matt Chorley: Not off the top of my head.
Sir John Major: No, neither can I. Don’t you think the people out there would actually like to hear someone standing up and saying: “We’ve got these things wrong. We’ve really screwed up. We’ve really got to take this particular policy more seriously. We cannot cope with population growth and the growth in the length of years people live, and the more expensive medical treatments. We cannot cope with it unless we begin to take action on those things. At this moment, we cannot delay on that.”
Matt Chorley: So what is the problem? Is it the quality of the politicians? Is it the quality of MPs in Parliament who get restless too quickly? Is it partly our fault, the electorate’s fault, that we are impatient and we want quick and easy answers to big complicated problems?
Sir John Major: I’m afraid we do. That is because nobody is telling us we can’t have that. Instead of saying, “These are the difficulties we’ve got to face and you can’t have that,” nobody is doing that. Too many people listen to focus groups and parody the focus groups in their policies, which naturally means more expenditure, and that inevitably, in the short term or the longer term, means either more debt or higher taxes. Governments have lost the capacity, it seems, to say no. Part of the job of politics is to say no.
Matt Chorley: I suppose the counterargument is that if you say no, you lose elections and you are not in a position of power any more.
Sir John Major: I’m not entirely sure that is the case. I would guess there are millions of people out there who would be only too pleased to hear a politician stand up and set out absolutely clearly, honestly and unmistakably the depth of the problems we face and the sort of measures we are going to have to take in order to protect ourselves.
They say, “You can’t do that. You’ll lose votes.” Really? When you are setting out a policy that will ease the lives of their children and grandchildren? Are we so self-centred that we can’t take in that message? I don’t believe it.
Matt Chorley: I wonder, we have touched a bit on social media, but the role of social media in changing the way people consume the news, instead of watching the six o’clock news or reading a newspaper which might have a broad range of issues and voices. If you are just watching people you agree with, that reinforces the idea that this person has all the answers.
Sir John Major: Yes. I’m afraid there has been a lot of that over a long time, where people mix with other people who have the same views and read newspapers that echo their views, or indeed shape their views. This is happening in a much bigger way in America, I may say, but it is certainly happening here as well. It is very dangerous. You can’t debate and change the world unless you meet the people with whom you disagree and try to persuade them. If, instead of that, you avoid the people you disagree with and form your own clique with your own views, then nothing is going to change in terms of really addressing the problems that lie before us.
Matt Chorley: You have talked in the past about believing in a rough and ready decency. Do you think we see enough of that in our politics today?
Sir John Major: Sometimes you do.
Matt Chorley: Is it more rough than it is decent?
Sir John Major: There are a lot of very decent people in politics. I don’t know the present Parliament as well as earlier Parliaments. I’m not a member of the present Parliament, but I know a number of MPs from the Conservative Party and Labour Party, not so much the Liberal Democrats these days. There are lots of them who have very decent instincts. The curious thing is that many of their instincts as to what they would like to achieve are the same. What they differ about is how to achieve it.
The economy is a practical example. The Conservative Party would say we have to deal with it with much more free enterprise and much less regulation. Many people in the Labour Party would also want a much better economy but would go a completely different way: more state direction. Everyone can have their own view on that. But the interesting thing is that the objectives are the same.
The very nature of the House of Commons, with His Majesty’s Opposition being two sword lengths apart from His Majesty’s Government, actually promotes the idea that the opposition must oppose everything. I’m not sure that I agree with that. I think the opposition has a duty to point out shortcomings. But when the objectives are the same, I think it would be better if people acknowledged similar objectives and began more practically to suggest mutual ways of meeting those objectives.
The classic example I would give you is that I do not think we will get a proper concordat on health, probably the single most important issue to many people, until the main parties agree the broad parameters of it, and that includes funding. I think that is something they ought to be looking at. We can’t have one party coming into government, setting out a series of policies, making changes, and the other party denying them, then, because they have denounced them, coming in and feeling they have to change them. That is poor politics.
Matt Chorley: And yet, when we look at how politics has unfolded over the last few years, promises do not get very long, whether it is their own MPs or the media.
Sir John Major: Maybe these long-term problems would. In any event, the fate of individual politicians doesn’t really matter as much as the development of the right policy. It isn’t a good idea to keep changing Prime Ministers. I think there is also a limit. If I give you a term of years, it will undoubtedly cause trouble, but I think it is an idea to have a limited number of years. The Americans have two terms of a president and then stop.
Matt Chorley: We can’t get to two years at the moment before speculation.
Sir John Major: I know, but this is a phase we are going through. It is partly a function of the many, many difficulties that we face at the moment.
Matt Chorley: Is the frustration that people don’t believe those problems show signs of being solved?
Sir John Major: The best aphrodisiac in politics is hope. If people can see a change, there is a change in atmosphere. It doesn’t even have to be politics. If we win the Ashes or the World Cup, there is a total change in atmosphere in the country. If you see interest rates going down rather than up, there is a total change in people’s capacity to invest and their belief in what is going to happen in the future. The moment the economy turns, politics will turn too.
Matt Chorley: It sounds as if, if Keir picked up the phone to you, I don’t know if he ever does, your advice would be the old Churchillian phrase, “Keep buggering on.”
Sir John Major: I’m not going to offer advice. I have been in politics a long time and I have made many mistakes. One mistake I’m not going to make is advising a Labour Prime Minister in public. And no, I have not been asked to advise a Labour Prime Minister in private either.
Matt Chorley: You talked about Her Majesty’s Opposition. Obviously now it is His Majesty’s Opposition. When you were there it was the Queen. Tell me about the weekly audience. I have heard other Prime Ministers talk about how it is the one meeting you go into where the other person doesn’t want your job. How important was it for you, having that regular audience?
Sir John Major: It was very important. I don’t mean for me. I think the Prime Minister meeting the monarch weekly is very important for the monarch too. I have no intention of telling you the sort of things we discussed. I will tell you it wasn’t all politics by any means. The only others present at those meetings ever were the corgis. If someone had bugged the corgis, it would have been quite a revelation.
Matt Chorley: Are you a fan of dogs?
Sir John Major: Oh yes.
Matt Chorley: You got on with the corgis?
Sir John Major: Yes, the corgis were fine. We even have an office therapy dog.
Matt Chorley: Do you?
Sir John Major: No, it’s not my dog. It’s my chief of staff’s dog.
Matt Chorley: Oh, great. What sort of dog is it?
Sir John Major: I’m not going to go into the dog. I don’t want the dog to become famous.
Matt Chorley: When you were Prime Minister, it was quite a turbulent time for the royals. We have since had Cabinet papers released from when the Queen went through her annus horribilis. Did you feel that the royals were really under pressure at that moment? And did you feel that you helped turn things around?
Sir John Major: I have no intention of commenting on that, except to say I did share an annus horribilis with the Queen at the same time, so we had plenty to talk about.
Matt Chorley: You talked about how you had a small majority after 1992 and obviously that made your life hard. Is there a sweet spot for the size of a majority? Is there a point where having a massive majority is also a problem?
Sir John Major: Something between 40 and 50 is the sweet spot. One of the problems the Labour Party has at the moment is that they have such a big majority. A large number of people know in their hearts that they are a one-term Member of Parliament for that particular constituency. Unless they defy political gravity, they will lose at the next election. That will encourage many of them not to take difficult decisions, but to cry out against difficult decisions so they can be seen to be defending their constituents against something that may be necessary but is unpopular. That makes any government’s job much harder.
Matt Chorley: I just want to end on a couple of reflections. Any regrets? Your biggest regret from your time as Prime Minister?
Sir John Major: Have you an hour or two? There were lots. I won’t say it is the biggest, but a big regret I have is that when I negotiated the Maastricht Treaty, it was hugely well received in Parliament. We didn’t put the Bill for the Maastricht Treaty through Parliament before the 1992 election because it had such support. There were five or six hundred Members of Parliament voting for it. We didn’t put it through. We put through other measures that were more immediately relevant, and so we left the Maastricht Treaty until after the 1992 election.
As I explained earlier, after the 1992 election, the complexion of the Tory Party had changed remarkably. Without that, we would not have had all the troubles we had with the Maastricht Treaty, which had a great deal to do with the eternal damnation of the Conservative Government at the time. So that is a regret. I could have got it through.
Matt Chorley: And that might have changed what followed afterwards.
Sir John Major: Yes. There wouldn’t have been a Bill that they could spend a whole year attacking.
Matt Chorley: On the positive side, George, who is a listener, got in touch and said, “Does Sir John feel he did not get enough credit for the National Lottery, lottery-funded elite sports and Team GB’s success at the Olympics? Please thank him from me.”
Sir John Major: I’m very pleased it has done so well. I’ll tell you how I came about doing it. I was Chief Secretary to the Treasury in 1987 to 1989, and the Chief Secretary negotiated public expenditure with every individual minister. So he had, although he was a junior member of the Cabinet, more power than most members because he could redirect money.
I noticed in doing that that the things the public most cared about, sport and the arts, got petty cash from the Government. I could never see a circumstance in which you could take money away from health or education or defence or social security in order to enhance leisure. Governments have never been big on leisure, if you go back as far in history as you like. So I was looking for some external way of funding something that the public really loved, sport and the arts. The answer was the lottery.
Since then, I don’t know if you know how much it has given apart from prizes. How much do you think it has delivered to the public in good causes?
Matt Chorley: In good causes? It must be billions.
Sir John Major: Have a rough guess.
Matt Chorley: Three billion?
Sir John Major: £50 billion. And that was 18 months ago, so it will be £51 billion, rising to £52 billion now. You can go to almost every village in the country and you’ll find something badged with National Lottery money. If you see that badge, you think, “I did that.” Well, it wasn’t only me. Lots of other people were there. One takes personal blame and one takes personal credit, but neither of those things is fully justified. You shouldn’t entirely get the blame or entirely receive the credit. But I am very pleased it went well.
Matt Chorley: A final thought, then, going back to where we began. The young 13-year-old John not working that hard at school, difficulty at home, parents distracted by trying to make ends meet. If that young John now were to come across our conversation and had an interest in politics, what would you say to him?
Sir John Major: I would say to young people, we need you in politics. If all the talent in this country concentrates on “How can I earn more money?” and “How can I avoid public service like the plague because I don’t like the idea of it?”, then we are in deep doo-dah.
We do need people to go into politics and we need our best people to go into politics. That may mean some changes in the way in which Parliament works. It will certainly require a change in attitude where public service, whether it is elected public service in the House of Commons, appointed public service in the Civil Service or any of the government bodies, particularly local government, is attractive. We need that sort of career to be attractive and to be socially attractive as well as financially attractive. I am not suggesting one is more important than the other. We need both. When you have respect for those, I think we will be getting back into a much more healthy position. It is very silly to argue and denigrate public service. People simply shouldn’t do it.
Sir John Major, it has been fascinating to talk to you. Thank you for your time.
Sir John Major: My pleasure. Thank you.
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Sir John Major’s Speech at Attlee Foundation Lecture – 18 March 2026
The Attlee Foundation Lecture 2026, delivered by Sir John Major at King’s College London on 18 March 2026.
ATTLEE FOUNDATION LECTURE 2026
A PIVOTAL YEAR FOR DEMOCRACY
First of all, I would like to thank the Attlee Foundation for inviting me to deliver this Lecture. I am privileged to be here this evening, and delighted to be at King’s, where I feel very much at home.
It is a quarter of a century since I left front line politics, but I still have an observer’s interest in our world and our country. Both are in an uneasy state, and actions – or in-actions – this year may be pivotal to the future.
Let me do a little ground clearing.
Some may be surprised that a former Conservative Prime Minister would deliver a lecture in honour of a former Labour Prime Minister.
They shouldn’t be and, in a world of grown-up politics, they wouldn’t be.
It is easy to admire Clement Attlee for his record of achievement; his political courage; his resolute defence of our country’s values; his creation of the NHS; his commitment to public service; and the manner in which he put the interests of his country before his own – or those of his Party.
Of course, were he and I both active in politics today – there would be differences of policy, of priority, of philosophy. We are political opponents. But mark this: Opponents, Yes. Enemies, No.
Democratic Parties do have enemies in politics, but they are populist insurgents who seek to divide and not unite.
They are careless of the strife they cause. They trade on grievances in our society. Where ills exist – they exaggerate them.
They then blame those ills on minority groups of a different race or religion. It is ugly politics that deserves no place in our country.
Our political system would work to better effect – and be more honest – if mainstream politicians acknowledged that their priorities – I emphasise priorities – have far more in common than they wish to admit.
That may surprise you, but consider this: all our three main Parties are in favour of greater economic wellbeing; secure defence; decent public services; thriving health provision; affordable housing; flourishing education; and healthy employment.
This is what we expect in our liberal democracy, and when these priorities are not delivered the nation becomes disenchanted ‒ as it is now.
We are not alone.
Over the last two decades, democracy has been retreating around the world.
Nearly three-quarters of our world live outside democratic protection.
Autocrats undermine democracy to entrench themselves in power. If we do not recognise the dangers of that, and protect ourselves against it, autocracy may, one day, overwhelm us.
At my age I have a limited lease on the future, but let me say with all the force I can muster: if we were to cast aside our mainstream politicians – as polls suggest we may do – then a gap would open up, and that gap may not be filled by democrats.
So – if you rejoice at the dire polling of Labour and the Conservatives ‒ beware of what you wish for.
If they were to fall, who knows what will rise: you may find that autocrats-in-power do not share the democratic instincts of the politicians you have discarded.
Many people worry about what lies ahead. Some are bewildered, even frightened, by the changes in our world. It would be a self-inflicted wound if they turned to the extremes of politics because democracy was not speaking for them.
We know democracy can succeed in the most unpromising circumstances: the Attlee Government proved that eighty years ago.
After a crippling war, our country was near bankrupt. The War had enhanced our reputation for courage and persistence, but left our immediate prospects in tatters. Six years of conflict had left families bereaved, cities destroyed, and the Exchequer bare.
The British people had endured years of hardship. The age of deference was on its death bed – and our battle-weary predecessors demanded a brighter future.
In retrospect, 80 years on, the 1945-50 Government, and its Prime Minister, are held in high regard. The problems they ‒ and their successors ‒ faced, and overcame, should be an inspiration for what could be achieved today.
But there is no room for complacency. No reason for the careless assumption that democracy is so entrenched it cannot be undermined. It can – and around the world – it is.
Electors should treat with suspicion rash promises from infant Parties that have never experienced the complexities of democratic government.
Our liberal-democracy is not perfect, but it is far preferable to any of the alternatives. It has checks and balances unknown to other systems. It has the ability to dismiss the inadequate, and haul down the over-powerful.
It exists to serve the nation. It does not compel the nation to serve the State.
Our political system is an enabler. Its policies enable peace, resists war whenever possible, and promotes justice, wellbeing, growth, care where needed, enhanced life expectancy, and transformation of life opportunities.
Along the way it makes mistakes, but its purpose is to extend freedoms of choice and action that more extreme politicians would curtail.
But … but … we cannot ignore the uncomfortable truth that, in recent years, our democracy has fallen short of expectations.
People have faced higher costs and rising taxes. They have seen no real increase in their post-tax income – nor in their standard of living.
When – over a period of many months – our three mainstream Parties collectively register barely 50% in opinion Polls it is time to be concerned over what may lie ahead.
In a bid to reassure electors, politicians talk of “reform” to come. It’s a useful word – reform. It can mean everything or nothing. Reform means change. Change means upheaval. Upheaval provokes opposition.
Upheaval may be necessary but – sometimes – it is better to make progress on the everyday issues of politics.
Is policy strangling initiative or encouraging it?
Are tax levels deterring savings and investment?
Is planning holding back housing for the homeless and the would-be home owner?
Does the benefit system encourage or discourage unemployment?
Can the triple lock be targeted to pensioners who really need it?
Can Parliament act more strongly against the misuse and abuse of social media and, if so, how?
Can we fund the Armed Forces we need?
Will this mean more spending – or savings elsewhere?
There is certainly no shortage of issues to settle. But it is not only policy that needs updating: so does our political system.
Politics has a grubby underbelly that can make it look seedy.
We need a spring clean.
Is political funding corrupted if ‒ with no qualifications other than money ‒ donors receive honours or preferential access to Ministers?
Should political donations be capped to protect against undue influence? I believe the answer is – yes.
Should the House of Lords be elected or appointed? An elected Upper House would meet democratic aspirations, but would be a monumental mistake. It could – and would – challenge the primacy of the Commons and create constitutional confusion.
It would not retain the wisdom and lifetime experience to enable it to discharge its primary function of revising legislation. It would not be a partner to the Commons: it would be a rival.
Recent General Elections have thrown into doubt the continuing validity of the “first past the post” system of voting.
As voting preferences spread more widely it provides distorted results. The democratic case for examining this is growing, although changes would come with distinct drawbacks.
Should Members of Parliament who defect to a different Party be compelled to face a by-election? Constitutionally, no – as they are deemed to be elected as individuals.
But, in the real world, they are elected as representatives of a political Party. So – yes: logic and common decency suggest they must face the electorate again in a by-election.
If the House of Commons wishes to regain the respect it has lost, it must justify the status-quo – or change it.
And one further thought: is it not time to recognise that Brexit has failed to deliver its many promises, and the loss, each year, of £100 billion of European trade, and £40 billion of tax revenue is doing enormous damage to the lives and livelihoods of the British people – and their future?
Money is the root … of good public services. Imagine how much better they – and our military power – might be if that money was still available to the Exchequer, instead of being thrown away with such a casual disregard of the consequences.
I do not believe we can fully rejoin the European Union in the near future. But economic wellbeing tells us we should re-build relationships with our closest neighbours as swiftly and as comprehensively as possible.
When we left the EU, we broke up a European alliance of 500 million people. We did so as America – with its 340 million citizens – pivoted away from us towards the East.
Suddenly, our closeness to the European and American power blocs was reduced. This left the UK more solitary and vulnerable.
My father was brought up in America, and taught me to admire the virtues of that great Republic.
Our two countries saw the world through similar eyes, and had much in common. But our relationship, once rock solid, is now more nuanced – and more distant.
After WWII, the Marshall Plan helped rebuild shattered European economies and – in the post-war years – America was the rock upon which democracy prospered.
America’s influence was overwhelmingly benign when President Truman committed to “support free people who are resisting attempted subjugation by armed minorities or by outside pressure.”
America’s purpose, echoed by later Presidents, was to secure a freer – and safer – world, in which the strong pledged their protection of the weak. No fee was asked. No deal demanded. No investment or payment expected. It was altruistic policy in a harsh world.
It was what made America great.
I saw this first hand at meetings in the White House and Pentagon, when the most senior Military personnel of both countries were present. Their mutual respect and friendship was self-evident. Trust was instinctive and total. Nothing was held back.
Our political and military relationship was one of shared values – on every issue from human rights to free markets. So I know what we had, and deeply regret that it seems to be falling away.
Since the turn of the century, America has economically out-paced both the UK and the European Union. At the millennium, the GDP of America and the EU was similar. Today, America is half as big again.
There is now a new tone from America. President Trump argues that America is being “ripped off” by trading partners and – without consultation – he raised tariffs on imports from wealthy and poor countries, whether friend or foe.
When the Supreme Court ruled these to be illegal, he reimposed a 15% general increase using different powers not yet tested in Courts.
Uncertainty was reinforced by the President’s dismissive attitude to Europe, his demands for the ownership of Greenland – the territory of a NATO ally – and his expressed view that the incursion of Ukraine by Russia was solely a problem for Europe.
This is not the America we have known.
Vice-President Vance also accused Europeans of being a greater threat to freedom in Europe than Russia. That was offensive and absurd in equal measure.
It was President Putin who sent Russian troops to invade Ukraine ‒ not vice-versa. It is Russia and Putin that conducts a “shadow war” of mis-information; takes cyber action aimed against Western Europe; and murders political opponents within Russia and – as we saw at Salisbury – in other territories, too.
When President Zelensky visited the White House to seek support, he was “ambushed” – no other description suffices – by President Trump and Vice-President Vance. It was Zelensky – not Putin – who was accused of “gambling” with World War III. This turned truth on its head.
Yet when President Putin arrived in Washington, he was greeted with full honours. Putin revelled in his red-carpet reception, and appeared able to persuade President Trump that black was white.
President Trump’s priority is set out in two alluring slogans: “America First” and “Make America Great Again”. This explicitly puts self-interest before the wider international interest, and has begun to further pry apart the “rules based” system that was built and led by America herself.
That system was fraying ‒ but is now fracturing. If diplomacy, consultation and co-operation breaks down, we will be moving towards the law of the jungle with which no country should be content – and in which no country is safe.
My fear is the risk of stepping into a world in which “might is right”, and the mighty behave in an unprincipled and lawless manner.
In such a world the rights and prosperity of weaker nations are subordinate to the will of the strong; greater powers are deferred to – not because they have justice on their side – but because they have the power to compel acceptance of their will.
Such a concept is truly terrifying.
How different that is from our expectations. In 1949 – one year after the Marshall Plan was put into action – the NATO Treaty was signed.
The Treaty included an Article 5 Agreement that an attack on one Member will bring all others to their defence.
But is that still so?
Will America – with all her military power – still be willing to come to the defence of a NATO ally? NATO is, of course, a defensive – not an offensive alliance.
I hope so. But the Vice-President is on record as saying “I just hate bailing out Europe again”. The American Defence Secretary added: “I fully share your loathing”.
Were these remarks merely frustration? Or were they voicing future policy?
It is striking that neither comment was disowned by the President.
If America did resile from Article 5, it is hard to see how an American could remain as Supreme Allied Commander. Yet it is inconceivable – given America’s great military power – to imagine anyone other than an American leading NATO, as it is currently constituted.
I suspect that, underlying all this, is America’s determination that Europe should bear a higher share of NATO’s overall costs. That would be fair. The burden has fallen too heavily – and for too long – on America’s shoulders.
American power was vital in winning both World Wars in the last century, although history tells us that she joined World War I only in 1917 after German submarines sank American ships.
And, in World War II, only after Japan attacked the American fleet at Pearl Harbour in 1941.
The worry for the future – to voice the private fear – is that past American Presidents only gained the support of their public to enter the two World Wars after America herself was attacked. In future, without that imperative, can we be utterly confident of American participation?
President Trump – against his own campaign oratory – has shown himself prepared to use America’s muscular power on overseas missions.
I am conflicted by the American-Israeli attack on Iran.
In one sense, this was a wholly understandable response to Iran’s behaviour over many decades.
I have no illusions about the distasteful nature of Iran’s clerical leadership. They unleash terror ‒ and fund murder and mayhem through their proxies.
This brutal regime has shown it is willing to murder any of its own citizens who are brave enough to protest at the mis-government that scars their lives.
So ‒ why am I conflicted?
It is because of what was not done ahead of any military action and ‒ crucially ‒ the wider implications beyond that.
There was no diplomatic attempt to obtain a UN Resolution to give legality to the war. No nation – other than Israel – was even consulted.
This was despite the fact that the war was bound have much wider repercussions across the Middle East – and beyond.
Many nations will pay a price for this war.
Hostilities will not end when bombing stops. Old hatreds will linger. New hatreds will have been born. A new generation may have been radicalised. Retaliation may be deferred – but it is likely to come.
This war will have a long tail.
Its aims have never been clear and – since the conflict began – they have been changing by the day. No exit strategy is known.
The President demanded surrender. He is unlikely to get it.
For Iran, one should think Persia, and remember her history.
Persia was a dominant world power when America and the UK were still living in mud huts. She will not admit defeat.
Neither America nor Israel were prepared to put “boots on the ground”. This comforted their domestic audiences, but made regime change – always unlikely ‒ completely impossible.
Whilst they restricted conflict to the air, American leaders encouraged Iranian citizens to take to the streets and confront well-armed Basij volunteers. These are part of the Revolutionary Guard, which murdered 30,000 demonstrators only weeks earlier.
Unless – and until – the regime is seriously tottering, that encouragement to rise up is an invitation to suicide.
In due time, the war will end.
What will it have done for the rule of law and the protection of the rules-based-system of behaviour that has served the world so well in the aftermath of World War II?
The American Defence Secretary was contemptuous of …. “vague notions of international law” and the “…. stupid rules of engagement”.
Such disregard of law is a shameful example for a law maker to set.
If the international rule of law is dismissed so casually, what are we left with?
I can only speculate, but I believe we will be left with a more fearful world, in which wars may be more numerous and alliances less secure.
A world in which disputes are settled ‒ not with diplomacy or adjudication or agreement ‒ but by force: the victor being the most militarily or economically powerful.
This heralds a playground for the strong, perhaps Russia or China – or even America ‒ and a future of unease, even fear, for the weak.
That would be a wretched legacy to pass on to the next generation.
The mercurial nature of President Trump upends the accepted norms of diplomacy.
But the message for the UK and Europe is clear and unmistakable: we must plan and enact policies to improve self-dependence.
This will require us to raise budgets to enhance our military capacity for defence and offence. That effort must be within NATO and not separate from it.
It will be an expensive and long-term commitment. After decades of peace, Governments must now persuade their electorates that military spending must rise – perhaps at the expense of social expenditure or higher taxes?
Assuming that can be done, countries must agree to purchase arms collectively. And, in doing so, the weapons must be inter-operable on land, air, sea – and below the sea. That will mean purchases from national suppliers may be less easy.
Matters such as these – complex as they are – cannot be left undecided if NATO is to be battle ready and a credible deterrent to any hostile intent.
Do not misunderstand me. I do not – in any way – wish to push America aside. She remains the most important ally to the whole of Europe.
For the UK, the Trans-Atlantic partnership is key to our security and intelligence. It is in our national interest to sustain this relationship even if we are in dispute on other issues.
At No10, during Gulf War I, I experienced first-hand what could be achieved when working closely with one of the finest foreign policy teams America has had: George H W Bush, James Baker and Brent Scowcroft. President Bush and I never held back from speaking truth to each other, and never once did that impair our relationship.
But today, there is a tendency to tip-toe around the President to avoid upsetting him. Although I understand that, I do not agree with it.
Sovereign States that demean themselves will be seen as subordinates and not allies. That is not a role for the UK.
If we disagree with American policy we should say so – as a friend that cares for the wellbeing of an ally. Statesmen do this in private ‒ not in public.
Our frankness may cause uncomfortable interludes, but we must never lose sight of what is morally decent and right, and stand up for what we believe.
In all our years of history, this is what the UK has done: it was right then – and it is right now.
Let me return to the words of Clement Attlee:
“…. peace does not come about through wishful thinking. Peace is not just a negative absence of war; peace means that you get rid – as far as you can – of the causes of war.”
What do we mean by “Peace”? It seems an easy question – but is not.
To fully enjoy peace, men and women need to be free. By free, I don’t only mean to be at liberty. I mean to be free of war; free of fear; free of want. I mean freedom to worship without persecution, and freedom to speak against injustice and oppression.
The concept of peace is wide-ranging. Peace of mind is very precious but ‒ in the 21st Century ‒ a majority of people in the world don’t enjoy it: the growth of stress, of pressure, of mental health, tell us that we are far from that ideal.
There has been progress. Many diseases that killed or crippled have been overcome. Child mortality has fallen dramatically.
Hundreds of millions have moved out of dire poverty; similar numbers now have fresh piped water and electricity.
But, as rich nations reduce their aid budgets, poor nations continue to struggle – and the international liberal order loses its attraction … and its potency.
There is an ancient responsibility upon every generation to leave behind a better world than they inherited. We are not doing well on that front.
Our young generation has no direct experience of war. They have grown up in a better environment. They travel more. Intermingle more. Inter-marry more. They are blind to colour and ethnic background. They are free of many of the inhibitions and prejudices of their forebears.
They do not view ancient enmities through the same eyes as previous generations. They welcome communal action on issues like climate change that can only be overcome by working together.
“Peace” ‒ said Attlee ‒ “does not come about through wishful thinking …”
Indeed not….. not in any form.
It comes about by working together – with civility, respect, fortitude, and mutual understanding – to diminish the causes of dispute and strife.
If we truly wish to create a safer world, that is the route we must take.
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Sir John Major’s Speech at Maurice Fraser Lecture – 18 November 2025
The speech made by Sir John Major on 18 November at the Maurice Fraser Lecture held at the LSE European Institute on 18 November 2025.
BRITAIN IN A CHANGING WORLD
Thank you for that very kind introduction ‒ and for the invitation to deliver the Maurice Fraser Lecture.
Maurice was a Special Adviser at the Foreign Office during my brief tenure as Foreign Secretary in 1989 – between the much longer tenures of two great public servants ‒ my predecessor, Geoffrey Howe, and my successor, Douglas Hurd.
He was to work with all three of us – for a total of six years from 1989 to 1995 ‒ making him, or so I was told, the longest-serving Special Adviser in the recent history of the Foreign Office. He was that near-mythical creature: a round peg in a round hole. Few – if any – Special Advisers have been awarded the Legion of Honour by France.
He had a formidable knowledge of world affairs, a tireless enthusiasm, a wicked sense of humour – and a total commitment to his country.
It was for that – and so many other reasons – that I asked him to join me at No10. But Maurice’s allegiance to the Foreign Office was too great to tempt him away from it.
Maurice studied at this university, and it was where he chose to return to share his experience after he left Whitehall ‒ first as a Lecturer, then as a Fellow and finally as a Professor. In many ways, the LSE was his spiritual home.
So it is a great pleasure to be here at the European Institute with his family, friends and former colleagues, to celebrate his remarkable – but too short – life through this Annual Lecture.
* * * * *
This evening, I wish to look at Britain’s future role in our changing world.
That world has undergone many changes over the last fifty years and – whilst a large number of those changes are welcome – others are not.
Globalisation has retreated. Free trade has given ground to Protection. Tariff barriers have risen. Theft of intellectual property has become more blatant.
The stability of the rules-based post-war system is crumbling. No country, no organisation, no Leader has stepped forward to seek a new consensus – to repair what is damaged, and replace what is lost.
Adherence to the written and unwritten rules of international conduct has fallen away. The moral principles of politics are losing out to transactional arrangements.
As power shifts, and alliances are re-arranged, much that we once took for granted is no longer certain. Current American policy has even upset calculations once believed to be settled about our future security and economic wellbeing.
Our world today is unsettled, grumpy, fractious, changing in character as economic hardship bites, populism increases, and America and her allies grow apart. For nearly two decades, democracy has been retreating as autocracy rises.
Basic expectations have been broken.
In the post-war years, it was the experience of most that improvements in our lifestyle had either been delivered – or were on the horizon.
Downturns came, of course, but these were overcome and better years followed.
Slowly, if irregularly, democracy offered hope – even to those at the back of every queue. Nations in the democratic West came to believe this improvement was an unbreakable trend: it wasn’t.
Since the financial crisis of 2007, too many people have seen little or no improvement in their living standards. Taxes have risen, Pay packets buy less. National and personal debt has soared – and hope has become anxiety. All this has added to the disillusion with democracy.
There is now a significant war in Europe, for which the outcome is uncertain – and the aftermath even more so.
The language of politics has changed. It is harsher, more aggressive, more focused on the battles of politics than the welfare of nations.
A form of populism has taken root that builds its support by condemning others: its target could be migrants, or minority religions, or people of another race – or any vulnerable group.
It seems that if anyone is “different” and can be scapegoated – then they are fair game. The late Chief Rabbi, Jonathan Sacks, noted that “Antisemitism is the best warning sign of a wider threat to a free and tolerant society”.
I agree with that: venom directed at one source will be directed at others too.
This mode of attack is not restricted to individuals or groups. Populists use it against all authority and so-called “elites”.
“Elites” are treated as if they were “the enemy within”, and Governments as if their shortcomings were the root of all ills.
Even the Judiciary is attacked, as if it were a subversive body, seeking to undermine the State. No-one should be complacent about this. If the Law loses its authority, the bully walks tall – and the lawless walk free.
The objective of the populist is as old as time: if someone else is in the dock of public opinion, those who denounce them must surely be on the side of the majority. The outcome of all this is to set citizen against citizen.
Such behaviour debases all who practice it. It is ugly, divisive, and racist – and daily on display.
RUSSIA
In the midst of our unsettled world, President Putin has turned Nation against Nation. The invasion of Ukraine had no credible or justifiable cause.
Across Europe – and within his own country – Putin’s “3 Day War” is now over 3 years’ old. So far, 400,000 Russians and Ukrainians have been killed – and many more are suffering from life-changing injuries.
Only one man is responsible for this slaughter.
The innocent civilians, who have died under bombs and drones, are considered by Putin apologists to be simply “collateral damage”. They are not. They are victims of mass murder and, when the fighting is done, this should not be forgotten.
There is a price to pay for mass murder and, if justice has any meaning, Putin will be brought face to face with it.
It is vital for future peace in Europe that Putin does not gain from his War Crimes – either on the battlefield or in an enforced deal.
Putin claims all of Donetsk, knowing Ukraine cannot cede it to him. And President Zelensky must not be pressured to do so in return for promises that Putin is unlikely to keep.
Western support for Ukraine has suffered from not being full-hearted. The allies, generally, have provided enough for Ukraine to fight on and keep Russia at bay – but not enough for Ukraine to drive Russia back and end the conflict.
There are three ways in which this war can develop.
It can continue indefinitely – in more or less a stalemate – if the democratic West holds back on increased support for Ukraine.
But – if Russia gains the upper hand because Western support has dropped – then a compromise deal may be forced upon Ukraine.
That would be a shameful outcome, and one all of Europe – and beyond – would come to regret.
Putin would claim a victory, and be likely to re-group and test Western resolve again: a bad outcome could be the preliminary to another war on a future date and a wider terrain.
The third option is that Western support increases, Ukraine advances, and Russia retreats.
If Putin loses, or is forced to withdraw, he loses face. Conceivably, he may even fall from power. If so, we cannot know if a successor will be more tractable – but it would be surprising if he were not more cautious.
America and Europe must weigh these alternatives. Only one is likely to ensure peace. They should take it.
One final point: this conflict is not against the Russian people: it is against Putin and his regime.
Putin has no scruples about creating chaos in other countries. We should have none in telling his people how he deceives them ‒ and loots their assets.
The prize of his departure would be the much safer and more stable Europe that Western democracy longs to have.
CHINA
Russia and China are allies against democracy, and friends only when it is mutually convenient. There is no doubt that China has usurped the influence of the former Soviet Union and is the dominant state.
Today, there seems to be no limit to Xi Jinping’s power or tenure of office. He is supreme, and building up a more assertive China both economically and militarily ‒ especially in and around the South China Sea. He is very much aware that China is America’s only Superpower rival.
China now boasts the world’s largest Navy, with more warships and submarines than America ‒ and she continues to build them.
In the late 16th Century, China was the pre-eminent global power. China has not forgotten this ‒ and nor should the world.
President Xi is consolidating Chinese influence with diplomacy. China offers development finance through loans and grants to nations across the globe.
Xi is presenting China as a champion of multilateralism ‒ in sharp contrast to President Trump’s arbitrary increase in tariffs on imports from friends and allies that has caused a great deal of anguish.
It seems an upside-down world, in which America offends her allies, while China embraces them.
This “embracing” was very much the visual from the recent Shanghai Co-operation Organisation, hosted by China, and attended by India, Turkey and Egypt ‒ all of whom have been more generally considered as allies of the United States.
A wise America would gather them close, not push them away. A friendship broken can be hard to regain.
China is a strong opponent of liberal democracy, believing it to be inefficient and a potential risk to her authoritarian ways.
Nonetheless, we must work with China, but set parameters to what we will accept. We should not overlook her shortcomings: her treatment of the Uighur Muslims; her failure to honour promises over Hong Kong; her threats to Taiwan; her theft of Western technology.
China will resent criticism, but may respect it. She will scorn weakness – and we should remember it is weakness that encourages over-reach.
Nor should we be gullible. China is a great power, but can be chillingly repressive. Her philosophy is not inhibited by democratic instincts, or individual human rights. If China believes actions are set against the interests of the State – she will crush them.
As China says ‒ “We believe no comments challenging national sovereignty and social stability fall within the scope of freedom of expression.”. That restriction is the very antithesis of democracy.
It is a sentiment we should not ignore.
BREXIT
In an act of collective folly, the UK voted to leave the EU. Across the world, our enemies celebrated. Our friends despaired.
We left Europe on a minority vote of 37% of the electorate, after a Referendum Campaign that was packed with misinformation and misjudgement. It left our country poorer, weaker and divorced from the richest free trade market in history.
The national interest was brushed aside by false hopes and promises, that even a Cabinet dominated by frontline Brexit enthusiasts was unable to deliver.
The gains – from Brexit – that were promised so confidently can now be seen to be illusory, while the forecast damage of leaving the EU has become only too apparent.
The nation soon saw “project fear” become “project reality”. It is no consolation that a majority of the public now – overwhelmingly – recognises that it was misled.
In their moment of triumph, Brexiteers predicted other countries would follow their lead and leave the EU. None has ‒ all saw only too clearly that Brexit was packed with disadvantages.
As we meet, nine further nations now wish to join the EU which is an apt comment on the world view of Britain’s decision to leave.
The UK once revelled in being a leading member of a EU, with half a billion citizens and the undoubted first ally of the United States – the world’s most eminent super-power. Today, we know we are neither ‒ and so does the world.
As we plan for the future, we must see ourselves as we now are: and what we are is
70 million people in a world of 9000 million.
The UK has a proud history, a wealth of talents and a role in the world that continues to be significant.
So, we have much to offer our partners. Our national assets would make the European Union stronger and better equipped to face an uncertain future.
Our collective future demands a Europe that conducts itself as an economic super-power alongside America and China: the alternative is to be ever subordinate to their political and economic whims.
As I look to the future, I have no appetite for that.
I know the shortcomings of the EU ‒ I lived with them for many painful years. But, in a dangerous and uncertain world – with two unpredictable super-powers – I believe Britain’s future is safer and more economically secure inside a powerful bloc of neighbour nations than outside.
But we cannot simply knock on the door and rejoin the European Union. Too much political and diplomatic blood was spilt for that to be an easy option. There are many barriers to a return to full membership that will be difficult to overcome – perhaps for many years.
That said, there are areas where we can make a start and – looking forward – the plain truth is that the EU is too important for the UK not to be part of its decision-making process.
My immediate ambitions are limited, but a necessary beginning. The changing public mood will help.
The Polls tell us that well over half the electorate believes it was a mistake to leave the EU, and less than one-third now supports having done so. Among the young, support for Brexit falls as low as 13%. The trend is inexorable.
That is why it is disappointing that both Government and Opposition are so wretchedly timid in their ambition. Both Labour and the Tories are terrified of the residual Brexit vote.
Our economic and political interests could not be clearer, but short-term Party political calculation is given priority over the national interest.
Brexit is a flop. It will not leap up from its death bed. It is losing our country £100 billion of trade every year – as well as the tax revenue that trade would deliver.
Just think about that. Every year – every year – the loss of billions of European trade is damaging our finances. The loss is made far greater by decisions the present Government has taken. That is one reason why we are facing a difficult Budget later this month.
Serious economists forecast a cumulative loss to the economy of £311 billion by 2035, together with 3 million fewer jobs and a fall in trade levels with the EU.
As of now, many small and medium-sized firms have been defeated by post-Brexit bureaucracy, and simply stopped trading with Europe. It is baffling that – at a minimum – we are not looking at how to negotiate away such frustrations.
New trade deals – supposedly to cover lost European trade – have not done so. Most are simply roll-overs of past deals. Some are positively damaging.
The much-promised “mega” trade deal ‒ swapping additional American trade for lost European trade ‒ has never happened – and shows no sign of doing so.
Much though I wish otherwise, I do not foresee an early return to full membership of the European Union. We have lost the unique and advantageous deals we gained in negotiations in the 1980s and 1990s – and I do not believe they can be regained.
Without them, a full return to Europe is almost certainly unobtainable in any likely Parliament until a younger generation of pro-European politicians come to power and the Brexiteer voice retreats again to the fringes of debate.
In the post-Brexit years, it has become glaringly obvious that it is in our self-interest to rebuild a better relationship with the EU as an institution and bilaterally with individual Member States.
The Government has made some modest steps that are welcome: none is dramatic – but all will play a small part in building trust.
More collaboration is under discussion ‒ such as youth mobility schemes, and integration into the Electricity Market. Hopefully, they can be agreed.
I hope ambitions can be raised to examine rejoining the Customs Union and, thereafter, the Single Market. Neither will be easy or painless ‒ and both will face political opposition and negotiating hurdles.
But ‒ if a fair deal can be struck – it will be welcomed by trade and commerce, by a majority in Parliament, and by pragmatists everywhere. And it can be achieved.
We may even be helped achieve an improved relationship by the evident wish of our European neighbours to build an expanded military presence across Europe, but within NATO. British military capability is important to Europe.
If we try – and are rebuffed, we must try again. The prize is worth the effort. And, although those within the EU are tough negotiators, they must know that their long-term interests – and ours – are coming into alignment. A deal can be done – and it must be done.
UK
Politics is a tough trade ‒ perhaps more so today than at any time outside of war.
The commentariat, media, and social media give politicians little or no slack, even when dealing with novel and complex challenges.
Let me turn to some of these challenges relevant to British politics ‒ though not necessarily unique to us.
The cost of servicing our public debt is now over £100 billion a year, and the Chancellor’s second Budget in a few days’ time promises to be a painful lesson in what happens when nations spend too much and earn too little.
We are told constantly that “the broadest shoulders must bear the greatest burden” –
as, of course, a progressive tax system should ensure they do. But it cheats the nation to pretend “the rich” can bear all the burden – or have not been bearing an increasing portion for a long time.
In the late 1970s, the top 1% of UK taxpayers paid 11% of the total income tax take:
last year, they paid not 11% ‒ but 29%. The Chancellor should beware: to force the rich away will place a far greater burden on “the average tax payer”.
We are not alone in our problem. The scale of national debt is reaching crisis levels in rich countries as well as poor.
Already, 60% of the world faces debt-to-GDP levels of over 100% ‒ including most of the world’s largest economies.
This is an indictment of governments offering “Jam today” and “a bitter pill” tomorrow. It’s now “bitter pill” time.
No-one can be sure when the crisis will be triggered ‒ or what the catalyst will be ‒ but the world cannot continue to overspend and expect economic security. And nor can we.
IMMIGRATION
A word about immigration.
No-one should blithely assume this is a short-term problem that will easily go away: it won’t. Last year, 950,000 migrants arrived ‒ 50,000 illegally by boat.
This is obviously socially unsustainable. But the lure of our country will not disappear. The long-term demand to come here will continue.
The scale of this demand – although unwelcome – is a back-handed compliment. No-one clamours to enter Russia, China or Iran. Even so, there is a practical limit to how many the UK can absorb.
Yesterday, the Home Secretary presented new plans to Parliament that are controversial – but also more comprehensive than anything we have previously seen.
They deserve careful study – not instantaneous acceptance or rejection.
But – however the Home Secretary’s plans proceed – a long-term solution is likely to include a pan-European effort. All of Europe faces this problem.
One aspect of reducing migration would be to make it more palatable for migrants to remain in their own countries.
The policy of cutting aid and investment to poor countries is very shortsighted: it will accelerate demand to migrate as hardship increases. This is a policy that acts completely against our own interests.
It is morally wrong, politically wrong – and heartless.
There have been hints that the Government will now re-think this policy: it should do so as soon as it can.
POPULISM
Let me return briefly to populism.
Populism is no longer a fringe problem of a few outlandish politicians: it is now mainstream and professional, and we should recognise the threat it poses to democracy. If we do not – and it gains power – it will not tolerate its opponents.
It is not easy to defeat populist groups offering disaffected people simple solutions to complex problems. After all, if the established politicians have seemingly “failed” in finding solutions, it is human nature to look elsewhere.
But populism is a dead end. I offer two antidotes to its appeal.
The most effective – is policies to remove deeply felt grievances and regain political support.
Contented nations rarely support populism. A return to stable growth would end much of the public dissatisfaction that gives life to it. Such a recovery would also ease the minds of many people worried about their future.
The second defence against populism is to expose the dangers of its policies and the unworkability of its solutions.
I do have a warning though: over-the-top attacks on populist Leaders – as opposed to their policies – can be counter-productive. Unworthy attacks can offer them the oxygen of public support: a dissection of harmful and undeliverable policy can take that support away altogether.
The truth is that the only side populism is on is its own. It cares for no-one else. And if it flourishes, democracy declines.
Democracy has a lot to lose. The established political Parties need to defeat populism – not copy it. The sooner they raise their game the better.
SUMMATION
I would like to end on a personal note.
I talk about the risks we face, because we dare not ignore them.
I talk of the future, because the present must prepare for it.
In modern politics, multiple challenges and day-to-day crises crowd in so fast, that it sometimes seems the future is crowded out by the immediacy of now.
We must stop that, or we will simply drift, and events – rather than our national interest – will forge our future. If that were to happen, it would be a profound failure of Government.
My worry, to put it bluntly, is this: the future seems to be secondary to the frustrations of today. But it shouldn’t be. Future problems can become today’s problems very quickly.
If we don’t face up to the risks of war; of national debt; of climate change; of long-term migration; of the health – even survival – of our political system; then we fail in the duty we owe to our history, our present, and our future.
I believe in our nation: in its history, its values, its natural sense of fairness and justice, its essential kindness and tolerance – and I admire the way in which it has always risen to existential challenge.
We must look to the future without fear of change, or timidity of action, but with the conviction that we can build the welfare of our nation, and sustain our place in the world.
We have faced far more difficult times than now, and come through them. The choices and challenges of today may be more complex, but they are less stark than we have faced before. They can be overcome – and must be.
But, to do so, we must abandon the cacophony of spin, soundbite, and empty noise – that so often substitutes for political debate about the well-being of our nation.
It is time to turn our back on complacency, on pessimism, on short-termism, on the second rate, on the fear of failure, on artificial divisions – and raise our ambitions to bring substance to the fore in politics, pride back in to our nation, and hope back into our lives.
This is the principle by which Maurice lived, worked and taught.
And the principle which – I believe – runs deep within us all.
We owe such an approach to the future.
It is my fervent hope that, together, we can work towards that outcome.
-
Sir John Major’s Speech at the Sir Edward Heath Annual Lecture – 26 June 2025
The speech made by Sir John Major on 26 June 2025 at Salisbury Cathedral.
THE CHANGING POLITICAL LANDSCAPE
AT HOME AND ABROAD: A REALITY CHECK
This occasion is intrinsically linked with Ted Heath and – with my memories of him – I am honoured to speak to you today.
Ted was not an easy man to know. He was a mass of contradictions ‒ and not always “user-friendly”. He could be brusque, wooden, charmless, and yet had the gift to make friends for life, and supporters who admire and sustain his legacy.
A complex man, he wasn’t born to privilege, but rose to prominence by sheer ability. His metier was policy, not presentation. Facts – and logic – were his political weapons of choice.
His priority was country first. Party came second. And he led, not followed public opinion.
Essentially an Englishman, his service during the Second World War forged his belief in the closest possible relationship between the United Kingdom and our neighbours in Europe.
A principled politician, he fought for this throughout his political life – and was right to do so. Europe is a cause, temporarily in obeyance, but not lost. It is still in play.
Ted had an active life beyond politics.
In his talent for sailing, classical music, the piano, and his love of conducting, he filled his life with passions far removed from the battleground of Westminster. He loved – as Yehudi Menuhin put it: “the wind, the land and the sea”.
There is a fascination about Ted’s career ‒ his rise, his rule, his fall ‒ that would have challenged even Shakespeare’s magical pen.
I’ve no doubt the discerning eye of history will treat him more generously than his contemporaries and – with that judgement – I concur.
Which is why it is such a pleasure to be with you this afternoon. Here, where Ted called home.
*****
Among the advantages of age is the experience of mistakes ‒ your own and those of others ‒ and the ability to learn from them.
Advancing years allow time for reflection, and eases us from the bonds of political correctness and Party self-interest.
In that spirit, I would like to conduct a reality check.
Imagine our world as a jigsaw, each piece in its place, laying before you, familiar and settled.
And then, of its own volition, the jigsaw begins to break up and take a new shape.
This is our world as it changes, and it has not yet assumed a shape we can rely on ‒ nor with which we can be comfortable. Nor can we be sure it will do so.
We Britons are a piece of that jigsaw puzzle. We fit where fate – and our own endeavours – take us.
For 80 years, we have been lucky to have lived under a rules-based system; been spared long and costly international wars; and – until recently – enjoyed a steady growth in national wellbeing.
Beyond any question America and China are the dominant forces in our modern world ‒ no other nation state comes close.
But neither of these two powerful nations offer the assurance of an ordered and peaceful future. They are rivals in trade. Opponents in politics.
What they are not are allies in building a better world.
The elevation of Presidents Xi and Trump to great power ‒ the first not a democrat, and the second not always behaving like one ‒ helps explain the uncertainties that now exist.
Of these, there are many. Moderate Parties of Left and Right are in crisis in France, where the extreme Right may win the next parliamentary and presidential elections.
The UK and Germany, too, face an insurgency from the intolerant Right.
Putin’s brutal invasion of Ukraine has erased the global peace dividend the West enjoyed after the fall of the Soviet Union.
We – among others – are now to spend more on defence, and to finance that by cutting aid to the world’s most wretched and helpless.
Many people, with voices that will never be heard, will suffer and die because countries have made this change in budgetary priorities.
It is short-sighted and – to my mind – callous. And the fallout, over time, will be greater migrant demand to live in the richer countries.
The switch from care to conflict comes courtesy of Putin’s military ambitions. He was, is, and will continue to be a menace to European peace.
As a newly-minted super power, China seeks to dominate the international order and is using military and commercial muscle to expand her interests – and increase her influence.
China is not a democratic country ‒ indeed, she is an avowed opponent of democracy, being first amongst a rising number of nations that see democracy as an alien ‒ and inefficient ‒ form of government.
For a long time the United States has been our closest, most trusted ally. Twice, in the last century, her entry into a World War has been decisive.
The display of American power in Iran a few days ago was awesome, but the situation is so dynamic that – if required – this matter is best addressed over questions.
For over 80 years, history and shared interests have kept America and the UK in lockstep. But, we are on notice that we can no longer depend on that.
It is fanciful to believe the America of today is still the America we knew from Eisenhower to Obama. But, demonstrably, she is not.
After the Second World War, the hands that exercised power were working within a rules-based-system that is now being questioned and ‒ in part ‒ rejected, by voices within and beyond the Trump Administration.
President Trump believes that enhancing American power takes precedence over the wellbeing of the wider international community.
Under her current leadership, America will not “pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend” if it conflicts with the President’s policy to “Make America Great Again.”
His Vice-President rammed the new priority home: “Europe is no longer a primary focus” for America. It was a harsh truth.
If that is a settled judgement ‒ it tells the British and Europeans that we can no longer rely absolutely on the support – in all circumstances – of the nation that, for so many years, has been our strongest ally.
Nor can we, with justice, simply blame America for this uncertainty. For decades, Europe – collectively – has under-performed on defence expenditure, and must now repair the shortfall.
The President’s new approach was evident when he negotiated directly with Russia over the Ukraine war. He did so without consulting NATO allies ‒ nor even Ukraine. It was as though allies were irrelevant.
It has been an unsettling time.
President Trump claimed the invasion of Ukraine would never have happened if he had been President ‒ but did not explain why not ‒ nor how it would have been averted.
He promised to end the war on “Day One” of his Presidency. He did not.
He believed he could bring “his dear friend” Putin to a deal to end the war. He has not.
I accept President Trump wants peace. But on what terms? He demanded concessions from Ukraine – the attacked, and then proposed a settlement to aid Russia – the attacker.
Ukraine has been threatened, bullied, and had military and intelligence withdrawn as if she were the aggressor. It was as though America had her arms around Putin’s shoulders, and her hands at Zelensky’s throat.
This turns reason on its head. Such a posture may well encourage would-be aggressors everywhere, and bring fear to potential victims.
Shifts in established American policy continue to cause uncertainty and confusion.
No-one envisaged a President:
- threatening to take over nations like Canada or Greenland against their will;
- casting doubt on the US commitment to NATO;
- introducing tariffs that disrupt the world economy;
- withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement; or
- treating immigrants ‒ even if illegal ‒ like trash to be thrown away.
Whatever frustrations she may feel, does America realise how all this is viewed around the world?
Will uncertainty over future policy cause our allies in the East – Japan, South Korea, Philippines – to consider building their own nuclear capacity?
Will Saudi Arabia or Turkey? Or, perhaps, others?
The answer to those questions may unsettle our world. The unwelcome vision arises of a dramatic increase in nuclear States. The implications of that are truly terrifying.
President Trump may achieve extraordinary things. His very unpredictability promotes uncertainty – and sometimes fear – of what he might do next. In this fashion, he gains compliance with his wishes.
The timid may crumble, the cautious may appease, but I hope the President understands that agreement under duress is false and unreliable.
If someone has their foot on your neck, you may comply with their wishes ‒ but you will never forget the foot.
America is, by far, the most powerful nation in the world. What she does will be followed by others. Government by threat will create resentment and chaos. It will not create calm.
This is not America as I have known her. This is not democracy as I understand it.
For every action in life, there is a reaction.
When President Trump speaks publicly – to chide or to threaten, he does not do so in a vacuum.
His voice echoes around the world, and what people hear has consequences to how they behave.
What does Mr Putin think? He is delighted. So is President Xi. Autocrats are thrilled to see the democratic world at odds with itself.
After all, if President Trump threatens to seize Canada, why should not Putin seize Ukraine? Or Xi take over Taiwan?
Why should not other autocrats judge that world opinion will no longer react to a coup or a land grab?
How many countries does that imperil? How many lives does that sentence to a hopeless and miserable future?
Much of the world accommodates America and China, hoping not to become victims to superpower malevolence.
Is this the rules-based world we have known? Or is it to become Kipling’s Law of the Jungle?
Politics is about people, their hopes, their fears, their lives ‒ it is not just about deals or money or mineral wealth.
Perhaps I am too old and out of time, but should not politics – at its heart – be about high moral purpose? Is the concept of “MAGA” – of widespread national self-interest – going to poison the well of decency in international relations?
How did you feel when Elon Musk – the richest man in the world – removed aid from the poorest people on the planet?
And how far does this negligence stretch?
No-one lifted a finger a few months ago when the Venezuelan election was stolen. Is democracy so shrivelled it no longer objects to the theft of a nation?
In Gaza, is Israel solving a problem – or creating one?
How will the dis-possessed, the injured, the bereaved see Israel when the present fighting is done?
Will not today’s death and destruction boost recruitment for tomorrow’s terror?
I do not believe it is possible to totally eliminate Hamas: it is an “idea” – a “doctrine” – as well as a terror group.
But every Palestinian ‒ man, woman and child ‒ is not a Hamas terrorist. What compassion and help will be given to those whose homes and lives have been wrecked?
What of the crises in Syria and Sudan and the Congo? Or the plight of the Afghan women? Are they simply to be forgotten?
Is starvation now a legitimate weapon of war? If so, to whom can the helpless turn?
Who will lead the world in helping those who cannot help themselves? Will our modern world cynically walk by on the other side?
Is barbarianism now acceptable if the barbarian is strong enough – or the victim without friends.
Can it be that our world is so exhausted, politics so tainted, self-interest so predominant that it has abandoned compassion? Is might now right? Has the law, human decency, and political morality been cast aside?
Or is it, perhaps, as simple as this: that our world is now beginning to elect leaders concerned only about national self-interest?
If so, if politics leads countries to hunker down in their own little trenches of interest, ignore reason, by-pass diplomacy, forego enlightened self-interest –
then heaven help us all.
I daresay the questions I have asked will be thought to be unworldly. If so, I despair ‒ because political action and political morality should be allies, not strangers.
And, if we are not concerned for ourselves, is this really the world we wish to hand on to the next generation?
I think not – and am encouraged by the aid given to Ukraine: for Ukraine is also fighting for our own future.
It is evident that we must enhance our own defence capability.
A welcome increase in defence expenditure has been announced but, I fear, it is only the first instalment of what will be required.
My guess is that, over the next few years, core military expenditure will have to rise way above 3½ % of GDP. That is a significant burden, requiring a reassessment of priorities.
We will not be alone: other European countries face a similar dilemma if Europe is to rebuild her own defences with weapons appropriate to tomorrow’s challenges. If they do not ‒ they will be culpable.
I admit to a concern about this. Will countries maintain higher defence expenditure if the current crisis eases? History suggests some may not. Self-protection tells us they must.
UNITED KINGDOM
Let me turn to our own country.
Britain is at a low ebb. Our economy has been near stagnant for almost two decades, and relatively weakening since the Second World War. The Pound Sterling is worth one-third of its post-war value against the mighty American Dollar.
Countries with large populations have risen in economic influence simply because of their size. That continues – and is inexorable.
Growth at home has been feeble since the 2008 sub-prime crisis. Productivity is half the level of the 1990s. We are deeply in debt. Taxes are too high, and confidence and investment too low.
Our military capacity has fallen steadily. Our Armed Forces are inadequately funded, ill-equipped for present risks, and diminished in manpower.
Our great institutions ‒ Parliament, Politics, The Church, Police, Press, Public Services no longer have the respect they once enjoyed.
This is a sad litany, but a sobering reality.
Is our position recoverable? Of course, it is ‒ but the task will require a supreme national effort.
Our country needs a climate of hope and help ‒ not hindrance.
The past can offer us some comfort. I grew up in the 1940s/50s when our country was all-but-bankrupt, and facing an even more challenging future than now.
It was the mid-1950s before food rationing ended.
A new house then was less expensive than a second-hand car is today but ‒ to put that in perspective ‒ my weekly salary, in 1959, would not now buy two cups of coffee at Pret.
So it has not been 80 years of failure. We have come a long way.
Living standards are immeasurably improved. So is healthcare and life expectancy.
I hope past success can encourage policy makers to believe that the problems before us can be overcome ‒ but with the caveat that yesterday’s solutions will not meet tomorrow’s challenges.
To hear modern politicians channelling their inner Attlee or Thatcher is not leadership: it is nostalgia.
The lessons of Attlee and Thatcher are that acute difficulties can be overcome ‒ but not by looking backwards: that is for historians. Politicians must look forward.
Governments have a duty to convey reality to the electorate. Promises that are undeliverable will only add to national disillusion.
We cannot recover without growth. We cannot have growth without public and private investment. And we cannot have that, without incentive and reward. We know this, but appear to ignore it.
The UK has many attractions ‒ an open economy; an incorruptible legal system; some worldclass universities; high-level capability in dispute resolution; life sciences; finance; the service sector; AI; space technology, and much else.
More can be done: lighter touch regulation; much more skill training; a closer relationship with Europe; and ‒ please ‒ a reformed tax system that does not penalise success.
We have to make an attractive offer to investors and traders, and offer hope and opportunity to our disillusioned young.
We need to applaud success and innovation. We need to encourage entrepreneurs to enter our country, and not leave it taking their ideas and their money elsewhere.
If we crush ambition and initiative we will sink into long years of slow growth or no growth. To avoid sclerosis we must open our mind to every path to wellbeing.
And so I come to Europe.
EUROPE
Here lies a difficulty. One whiff of collaboration with Europe and voices cry out we are “betraying the cause”, “surrendering”, throwing away Brexit “freedoms”.
What nonsense this is. The only Brexit “freedom” I’ve yet seen is the freedom to be poorer. And we’ve not only seen that: we’re experiencing it.
I don’t seek controversy ‒ merely reasoned debate. One obvious contribution to higher growth is to improve our trading relations with our nearest neighbours.
My views on leaving Europe are no secret.
Our exit was a gift to countries that wish us ill, and a shock to those that wish us well. It has scarred the body politic, and may yet be written on the tomb of the Conservative Party.
I am no longer in politics. No more at the centre of events. But it breaks my heart that the Brexit saga has so poisoned our politics, damaged our economy, and undermined our national standing in the world.
I continue to search for the “benefits of Brexit” but they are as elusive as Lord Lucan. Some politicians talk of them ‒ but are unable to tell us what they are, or where they may be found.
What is ever-present are the dis-benefits of Brexit. Any overall assessment of them is a damning indictment of the policy.
Eminent economists – the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, the Office of Budget Responsibility, Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs among them – have on average estimated the long-term loss to our GDP to be about 4%, resulting from a fall in trade volumes.
The loss builds up to that percentage over time. But, even if our national income didn’t rise at all between now and the mid-2030s, a loss of 4% would amount to over £100 billion pounds.
Consider that for a moment. One hundred billion pounds less of each year’s national income. Say it quietly and it’s just a statistic. But it isn’t – it’s real.
One hundred billion of our future income that we threw away when we left Europe.
That GDP loss leads to a fall in government income.
So, Government’s share of this loss – at present tax rates – would be nearly
£40 billion pounds.
That’s £40 billion of more taxes, or less spending, or most probably more borrowing.
Of course, as members of the EU we paid a contribution to Brussels – just under £10 billion pounds a year when we left. And, to be sure, that might have risen. But it would still leave us with a very big fiscal loss.
Indeed, if you allow for the spiral of loss – extra interest payments to finance the extra borrowing, and so on – you quickly get to some very big numbers indeed.
In 2018 – after we had decided to leave – the Treasury estimated the extra borrowing at £72 billion by 2035, if we didn’t do a deal that gave us market access.
That same Treasury report suggests that – if we had negotiated a European Economic Area scenario – with UK membership of the Single Market – the long-term loss would fall to £22.5 billion.
And, if the Government had managed to meet the negotiating ambitions of its own White Paper, the loss would be a mere £1 billion.
But these ambitions were simply tossed aside to “Get Brexit Done” and a “hard” Brexit was rushed through at great future cost.
Bad choices won. The British people lost.
I am glad to see that Keir Starmer is slowly and painfully beginning to work his way back into a better trading relationship with the EU.
Anything that helps to bring that £72 billion threat down is welcome – especially at a time when other tariff barriers are rising.
But the Prime Minister’s unwise pre-election disavowal of the Single Market means we are still suffering a substantial fiscal penalty – far bigger than the controversial claim that the Government “inherited a £22 billion “black hole””.
That claim is arguably illusory – and certainly exaggerated: the Single Market “black hole” is very real.
And that’s not all.
Before we left the EU, we received loans from the European Investment Bank for capital investment. We did well.
In our final years, we received about £6.8 billion a year. For comparison, France – despite her bigger economy – received some £6.6 billion.
Brexiteers claimed we’d fill the gap from our own replacement public investment institutions.
But we haven’t. So far, these institutions have been lending about £2.3 billion a year.
The effect is clear: if we had not left the EU, our annual public sector investment could have been far higher.
But it wasn’t ‒ so we lost tens of billions in investment ‒ amid a deteriorating infrastructure in pothole Britain.
I will not bother to cost the employment of tens of thousands of additional civil servants to handle Brexit – nor the exit costs of leaving the Union.
In response, Brexit supporters may say: “Ah! But we have new trade deals”. That is true ‒ but to offset the loss? Hardly.
The new trade deals are welcome, but modest, and nowhere close to compensating for the loss of European trade.
In the last five years, our trade grew at a miserly 0.3% a year ‒ one-fifteenth of the growth between 1980-2008. Is Brexit the problem? In part, yes.
In one respect, the Brexit agreement was unique: it is the first ever trade deal to erect new trade barriers rather than eliminate them.
Ted Health would never have been deflected from the importance of European trade. Nor would Margaret Thatcher: it is why she entered the Single Market.
That is the distinction between statesmanship and showmanship.
Even in retrospect, it is hard to comprehend what we have done.
We – the UK – are a trading nation ‒ more so than any of our competitors.
International trade contributes one-fifth of our economy – more than China or America – or the EU. Yet we, the world’s pre-eminent trader, walked away from the richest free trade area the world has ever seen when it was on our very doorstep.
No wonder our competitors thought we had taken leave of our senses.
We lost more than money. In diplomatic terms, Brexit achieved an outcome that our governments had sought to avoid for centuries: it united Continental opinion against us, making it hostile to British interests, and less open to British persuasion.
We still face a choice. One day, we will either have to accept change ‒ or offer our country a lower standard of living ‒ perhaps permanently.
What should we do?
I am not emotionally a European ‒ I am too British for that.
I do not advocate re-joining the EU as a full Member. This is politically unrealistic at present, and will be a decision for a later generation.
But, for now, we can recover lost trade by moving towards re-entering the Customs Union and the Single Market. I know for some this is a big and contentious decision. But ‒ if we think small we will be small.
As I look forward, I see good, practical reasons for building up our relationship again. We British are a mere 70 million people in a world of nine thousand million.
I believe, in every way, our four nations will be better off, more secure, safer and richer, as part of a much larger and more powerful bloc. That is true now – and will become even more so in the lifetime of our children and grandchildren.
Of course we will survive economically on our own: perhaps, in due time, we will even thrive. But my fear is wider.
In a world dominated by the United States and China, a dis-united, weak Europe will forever be a subordinate demandeur; an on-looker of great events; a follower not a leader.
And Britain, France, Germany, Italy and all Europe will no longer have the confidence, the security, the achievements that should be our legacy to our successors.
My affection for Europe is not for what it was, or is, but what it can be.
The world is changing, and we must change with it.
I don’t wish to see our world dominated by two self-interested super-powers.
All of Europe ‒ with the UK as an ally ‒ can be a counter-weight. Events are pushing us towards greater self-dependency, and we must embrace that.
I do not underestimate the difficulties of enhancing our relationship with Europe.
But – as we look ahead – Europe will need us as we will need them. We are not supplicants, we are partners. And a joint partnership will strengthen the whole of Europe.
When we left the EU, the Europeans – feeling unwanted – left the UK, only to be replaced by a far greater number of migrants from around the world.
Of course we must reassure our nation about freedom of movement and migration. But note this: the Brexit promise was that ‒ by leaving the EU ‒ we could control our borders: we have not. The situation has worsened not improved.
This migrant problem is wider than our own country. It is most likely to be solved with European-wide co-operation, not British isolation.
But all our ills did not originate with domestic errors.
Brexit was certainly self-inflicted. But the financial collapse in 2007/8 over sub-prime mortgages was not. Nor was Covid. Nor was the Ukraine war. Nor was the shifting relationship with America.
* * * * *
Let me close as I opened – with the image of that jigsaw puzzle.
A puzzle which – through the ages – has been broken up, rearranged, refashioned – and then re-moulded all over again.
For 80 years, that puzzle was familiar. We knew where the pieces fell. There was order.
It is now breaking up again, and where the pieces will fall is uncertain.
But no jigsaw can be completed by looking at each piece in isolation. They must all fit together to create the desired tableau.
Each one of us – from my generation down – needs to understand where the world is now, and where each piece of that new jigsaw needs to fall to secure harmony and economic security.
That is the reality. It is work in progress.
And, for all our sakes, that endeavour must not fail.
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Sir John Major’s Interview on The World This Weekend – 16 February 2025
The text of the interview between James Naughtie and Sir John Major on BBC 4’s The World This Weekend on 16 February 2025.
JAMES NAUGHTIE
Sir John Major, who combines a razor sharp observation of the here and now, with his own experience as Prime Minister. Coming to power soon after the fall of the wall, deeply involved in the chaotic translation of the Soviet Union into the Russian Federation and a leader who found himself involved in armed conflict in the first Gulf War shoulder to shoulder with an American president, George H W Bush. So I asked Sir John to put these days, now, in Europe in perspective. How serious did they seem to him? What change did he think was afoot?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
There’s no doubt in my mind that the world is changing and that it’s reshaping, that it may not be reshaping in a way that’s congenial to the west and that it’s a very unsettled time indeed. Many of the gains we thought we’d made over recent years, for example, as you said, when the Soviet Union collapsed, are now being reversed and you see a very aggressive Russia again in Ukraine. If they were to succeed with their adventure in Ukraine, no doubt they would be elsewhere before too long. We see globalisation retreating and there’s no doubt in my mind that democracy is threatened. It’s been in modest decline for the last 18 years, there’s an ugly nationalism growing, mostly from the intolerant right. So it is, as I say, a very unsettled time. At this particular time, the big nations, America, China, Russia, are beginning to act unilaterally, where once they would have consulted. That is a concern, because it does presage the prospect of very great and rather unpleasant changes.
JAMES NAUGHTIE
You allude to what’s happening in the United States and it brings us to President Trump’s dealings with Vladimir Putin and indeed to JD Vance’s speech to the Munich Security Conference. This is a kind of administration, to be quite blunt about it, you’ve never seen in your lifetime before.
SIR JOHN MAJOR
No, that’s perfectly true. It’s a very different presidency from Kennedy, from Nixon, from Clinton, from Obama, from the two Bushes. In fact, it’s a form of presidency I haven’t previously seen. The President’s phone call to Putin, in which we learned that negotiations to end the war would start immediately. There had been no consultation with Ukraine or anyone else. He then made concessions to Russia, which I think is fairly unprecedented, having made perfectly clear that the US troops would not defend Ukraine, that Russia might be able to keep land that Putin had taken by force and that Ukraine would not be able to join NATO. These were all unilateral remarks from the present administration in the United States to the world. Yet consider what happens if Russia can claim a win. China is going to notice that, and so will the world, and so will every tin pot dictator around the world. If America is not to stand behind its allies in the way the world has previously seen, then we are moving into a wholly different and in my view, rather more dangerous world.
JAMES NAUGHTIE
From what you think you have read into Trump’s dealings with Putin, that is exactly what you expect to happen?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
That is what he appears to have been signalling, yes, and it’s extremely dangerous and it’s hard to understand why. The Vice President’s speech at the Munich conference, a rather unlikely venue for the speech he actually made, the political signal was obvious and misguided, I think, in the middle of an election in Germany. This is just an illustration of what is happening, but if you recall, hundreds of thousands of American servicemen died relieving Europe from the tyranny of fascism and the Vice President goes to Munich, ignores his host Chancellor Schulz, and arranges meetings with the leader of the most far right party. That is not what we expect from the foremost nation in the free world. It’s certainly not statesmanship, and it potentially gives off very dangerous signals.
JAMES NAUGHTIE
And he lectures Europe at the same time on the issue of free speech?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
Well, that is extremely odd. It’s extremely odd to lecture Europe on the subject of free speech and democracy at the same time as they’re cuddling Mr. Putin. In Mr. Putin’s Russia, people who disagree with him disappear, or die, or flee the country, or, on a statistically unlikely level, fall out of high windows somewhere in Moscow. To lecture the West about democracy seems to be rather odd. He really should be doing that in Moscow, or perhaps even in Beijing.
JAMES NAUGHTIE
Well, your view is plain, but I have to put it to you that Donald Trump is practicing what he preached. The voters, after all, a bare majority of those who did vote in the United States give a man a mandate to do this, and as a consequence, you might dislike it, but you can hardly complain that he’s doing something illegitimate.
SIR JOHN MAJOR
He certainly won a mandate. I don’t recall in his mandate a suggestion that he might take over Canada or Greenland or the Panama Canal, or any of the other things that are being suggested. I mean, let me say what I think Western governments will be unwilling to say publicly, but which I am sure they all feel. If America behaves in this fashion and retreats towards isolation, she leaves the door open to China and Russia to supplement her place in the world. The free world, I believe, now fears that America, with all her great power and prestige and all that she has done to keep the world safe in recent years, may now be turning her back on the international responsibilities she has previously taken. If she does so, there’s no other nation state that can replace them, other than China, and that is not something I think the West would certainly wish to see. If that happens, the world, including America, may regret what subsequently follows.
Now I understand President Trump’s desire to make America great again, though I would have thought, since she is the most powerful and richest nation in the world, she could already claim that, but he wishes to make her great again. It’s a very different tone from a former American tone of paying any price and bearing any burden for the freedom of mankind, and the world needs to take account of that and discover precisely what is meant by all this, and then, as necessary, take action to safeguard their own interests.
JAMES NAUGHTIE
So John, it’s unusual to hear a former Prime Minister talking, if I can use the word, so frankly. Because, you know, there are protocols and a sense of politeness that prohibit people who’ve been in high office from maybe always saying what they think. You clearly feel that you’ve got to let this go, you’ve got to tell people what you believe.
SIR JOHN MAJOR
I rarely these days appear on the media. I’d rather take the view that former Prime Ministers by and large should keep out of the way and leave it to the current generation. But sometimes there are things that need to be said that perhaps can’t be said so easily by the present Government or by politicians in office but that nonetheless need to be said.
Now let me say something personal about this. My father was brought up in the United States, he was brought up in Pennsylvania and he lived there throughout his youth. He taught me as a boy to love and respect the United States and its people, and I always have respected them. It seems to me that it would be a very great tragedy with very uncertain outcomes if this great Republic began to preside over the death of the rules based society that has kept the world safe over the last 50, 60, 70 years. Yet, I’m not alone among politicians who think that rules based society is now at risk.
JAMES NAUGHTIE
I’m bound to take you back a little bit at this juncture and say that George H W Bush, father of a president, as well as a president himself, of course, was the first American president that you came to know well in office. You fought together, as it were, in the Gulf, and you saw through some very tumultuous times together, but the contrast with the current incumbent is dramatic, isn’t it?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
I think it’s total, yes. George H W Bush was not only President of the United States, but from my point of view, during his presidency and for many years afterwards, he became a much cherished friend and he was an internationalist of a very remarkable kind. He understood the world, and he understood that for every action, there is a reaction. I make that point because if America stepped back from the responsibilities they have so generously and bravely taken over recent years, somebody else will step forward to replace them, and I think we have to realise that, and we have to prepare for that if it should prove to be necessary.
My preference would be for the United States and Europe to reach a great concordat again and to conduct negotiations in private and not by megaphone and not without consultation first. But if that can’t happen, then Europe, and I include the United Kingdom as well, even though we’re not in the European Union, then we need to look at our own future and begin to repair some of the gaps in our present position that would appear were America to retreat a little more behind American borders,
JAMES NAUGHTIE
Which must mean spending more on defence?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
Undoubtedly.
JAMES NAUGHTIE
So if you were Chancellor, which you once were, you’d break your own fiscal rule wouldn’t you, and say ‘come on, this is a moment that really demands action, whatever we said in an election campaign?’
SIR JOHN MAJOR
I sympathise with the present Chancellor with the position she’s got. It’s very, very easy to say, from outside the government, I’d just do this and I’d spend all this money. I would prefer to say, I would realise in my plans that we have to make a very material increase in the level of defence expenditure and do it as a priority as soon as it is credible to do so.
JAMES NAUGHTIE
In terms of the Ukraine negotiation itself bringing this war to an end, there are two issues that arise very obviously. When European leaders, including Keir Starmer at this occasion, meet in Paris tomorrow night, it will be on their minds. The first is the inclusion of Ukraine in conversations between Trump and Putin, which hasn’t happened yet as we know. And secondly, there is the question of NATO membership, on which the United States seems to be determined, or at least minded, to block Ukraine from its ambitions to join. How would you see your way through those two problems?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
We need to consider, because it is relevant to what we decide, what happens if Mr. Putin wins? I use wins in the sense of gains territory, the world will see that at the same time as they see Mr. Trump talking of annexing Canada and Greenland. Now contemplate those two events running together, and ask yourself this question, what do Mr. Putin and President Xi think? They are dancing with joy.
Mr. Putin will see that he has received some reward for seeking to invade and annex Ukraine, and Mr. Xi will feel, if that has happened, what restraint is there on China beginning to grab Taiwan back again in a few years time? So we have to look at what the world would look like if that happened and it wouldn’t look very attractive, and we would wish it not to happen. So I do think we have to speed as rapidly as we can defence expenditure. I can’t say I have focused particularly on the credibility of Ukraine joining NATO, but if it’s not credible for them to do so, now, I think we ought to assist them so that it becomes credible as soon as possible.
JAMES NAUGHTIE
From your point of view, as somebody who was engaged in serious international negotiations at a higher level, the centrality of Ukraine to a settlement which is going to decide the future, not least in terms of its own borders of the country, is surely an absolute fundamental principle that Europe has to defend?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
Yes, Ukraine should be a part of the negotiations. There is no justification for other nations and negotiating over Ukraine’s head, whether it is the United States alone, or indeed the United States and other allies, it is Ukrainians who have lost several 100,000 people in the battlefield. They have lost blood and treasure and a large part of their country, it would be intolerable were they not to be a significant part of the negotiations.
JAMES NAUGHTIE
And there will have to be some kind of security presence to safeguard their borders in the event of some kind of settlement?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
That was a notable absentee from the reports of what was said by the President to Mr. Putin. There was no mention of any concessions to be made by Mr. Putin. There was no mention of any security guarantees to be given to the Ukrainians and both of those are an important part of what must happen when there is proper negotiations.
JAMES NAUGHTIE
How difficult would it be for Europe and for NATO, dominated of course by the United States as a member, where some possible deal on Ukraine would be seen by them as a sellout to Russia?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
I think it would be immensely difficult, firstly, against the prestige of the United States. There are countries all around the world who rely on the power and strength and democratic power of the United States. If they believe the United States is no longer to be relied on, they will rethink their position. Many of them who are non aligned, might well realign behind China. Others may decide they’ll increase their own expenditure on defence. Some may decide, well, we had better get a nuclear weapon as well, because it seems as though it may be necessary to protect ourselves. Now, all of those things are speculation, but they’re not wild speculation. All of them are perfectly credible things that might follow from a belief that America had ceded its present role in the world as a whole simply to concentrate on the domestic greatness of the United States.
JAMES NAUGHTIE
You’re being very frank. You obviously feel very deeply about this.
SIR JOHN MAJOR
Well, I suppose I have a limited lease on what happens in this country. I’ve been in it for my eight decades, but my children haven’t, my grandchildren haven’t and millions of other people haven’t. The future lies ahead. I would like our political parties to stop looking back at past generations of politicians and look forward to what is going to happen in the 2030s and the 2040s and the 2050s, to begin to plan for it, to begin to act for it, to begin to understand the way the world is changing and prepare for it.
Those things seem to me to be extraordinarily important. Politicians today have a harder time, I think, than any of their predecessors, because of the advent of social media, the way in which the chequerboards of the world are changing shape at the present time and and the fact that our country has had 15 years without any noticeable increase in the living quality of most British people. in any part of the United Kingdom. That’s an extraordinarily difficult back loss for them to operate, but we do have to look forward. If we look forward, we can bring hope where there is none, and provide opportunity to a greater extent than there is at present. Those things need to be done. I hope Governments, this one and the next one are not too small ‘c’ conservative in what they think and what they do and what they believe can be achieved, because the world is moving and changing very rapidly. We have to move and change with it.
JAMES NAUGHTIE
If by some possibly divine intervention, you were given the opportunity to have a private conversation with President Trump, what would you say?
SIR JOHN MAJOR
I’ve always believed conversation should be private, and I’m absolutely sure Jim that our conversation would far better be left private than public.
JAMES NAUGHTIE
Sir John Major, and he writes our closing headline for us, because he has told this programme that democracy is under threat than it if the US retreats towards isolation, it will leave the door open for Russia and China to take its place in the world.
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Sir John Major’s Interview on BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme – 6 November 2021
The transcript of the interview conducted by Nick Robinson on BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme on 6 November 2021.
Nick Robinson
Good morning to you.
Sir John Major
Good morning, Nick.
Nick Robinson
Sir John, what do you say to those listening who may be a little weary of the story? They may say, look, a mistake was made, a mistake was acknowledged, a u-turn was executed. The MP in question has now quit the House of Commons. There is nothing left to say.
Sir John Major
I really wouldn’t agree with that. A mistake certainly was made and I think rather a bad mistake. The problem is that it isn’t a mistake on its own. There have been a whole series of missteps, so I think it’s necessary to address them now in order to put them right in the future, because if it continues in the way it is now it’ll be very damaging for Parliament, for the country and certainly for the Conservative Government.
I have been a Conservative all my life Nick and if I’m concerned about how the government is behaving, I suspect lots of other people are as well. It seems to me as a lifelong Conservative that much of what they’re doing is very unconservative in its behaviour. There are many strands to this that go way beyond the Standards Committee imbroglio over the last few days. There’s a general whiff of ‘we are the masters now’ about their behaviour and I think this is cutting through to the public. It has to stop and it has to stop soon.
Nick Robinson
Now, let me put to you this specific point made by Lord Evans, now chairman of that committee on standards in public life, he said Britain could slip into being a corrupt country. Do you believe that’s a possibility?
Sir John Major
Well, it depends on your definition of corruptness. If you mean necessarily financially corrupt on a large scale, well I think we have a long way to go before we do that. Standards in public life generally, I think, and I don’t just mean in the political sphere but across the whole of public life, are as high I think, as anyone in Europe or elsewhere. But if you mean in terms of other aspects of behaviour, then I have a considerable amount of sympathy with what Lord Evans has said.
What has been happening is damaging at home and to our reputation overseas and that matters. Our reputation overseas matters to us and it should. Let me take a few illustrations, I’ll start with the Standard Commissioner’s report. I think the way the government handled that was shameful and wrong and unworthy of this, or indeed any, Government. It also had the effect of trashing the reputation of Parliament. A number of Conservative MPs rebelled and very well done them, I wish more had had the courage to do so and I suspect they will in future because they were put in a dreadful position by the Prime Minister.
But there’s a bigger point. Parliament cannot be the plaything of any Prime Minister or indeed any government. This government has done a number of things that concern me deeply. They have broken the law, I have in mind the illegal prorogation of Parliament over which I went to the Supreme Court. They have broken treaties, I have in mind the Northern Ireland protocol, they have broken their word on many occasions. The one that I find most odious was the cut to overseas aid, which was a statutory requirement and was cut long before Parliament gave permission for it. Whenever they run up against difficulties with anybody, whether it is the Supreme Court, the Electoral Commission, the BBC, they react not with an understanding, not trying to placate what has gone wrong, but actually in rather a hostile fashion. That’s why I say it is profoundly unconservative and something I dislike intensely.
Nick Robinson
I want to come to some of the examples you’ve raised. I want to put to you in a second the fact that many people think you are still fighting an old battle, the battle over Brexit in what you’ve said. But before we move to those things, let me ask you specifically about this week, something you said was shameful and wrong. Do you blame the Chief Whip, do you blame the leader of the House of Commons, Jacob Rees Mogg. And if not, who?
Sir John Major
I don’t think it’s my responsibility to apportion blame. My understanding of what happened is that the instruction came direct from the Prime Minister, that is certainly what I’m told by backbench Members of Parliament. Where the Chief Whip and the Leader of the House are certainly to blame is it is their responsibility to make sure the Prime Minister understands the mood of Parliament and plainly either they told him the mood was wrong and he brushed their concerns aside, which may have happened, or alternatively, they were not in touch with Parliament, in which case they’re certainly culpable. But I don’t know which of those options is the correct one.
Nick Robinson
We are hearing now that there is a possibility that Owen Paterson could be offered a peerage by Boris Johnson, No. 10 have neither confirmed nor denied it. How would you feel if he was?
Sir John Major
There have been some extraordinary elevations to the peerage in recent years, quite extraordinary, quite apart from the over large number of peers that have been put there. I think it would be rather extraordinary if that happens. I’m not at all sure it would be approved by the House of Lords, or by those who vet peerages.
Nick Robinson
Our political system, as you know too well as someone who had a rather small majority, gives enormous power to Prime Ministers who have a decent or a big majority. Can restoring trust in the way that you want, in the way the public seem to want as an extraordinary poll in the Daily Mail today, carried out by JL Partners where 57% of people agree with the statement ‘Britain is in danger of becoming a corrupt country’, can tackling that be entrusted to this Prime Minister?
Sir John Major
This is the Prime Minister we have and he will have to tackle it. It can start with the way he treats Parliament. I’m afraid the government with its over large majority do tend to treat Parliament with contempt and if that continues it will end badly. They bypass Parliament at will, the Speaker has expressed his frustration about that on many occasions and rightly so, but they also behave badly in other ways that are perhaps politically corrupt. They brief the press, or a part of it, well in advance of any announcements to the public. They then make announcements to the public and then at that late stage after briefing their friends in the press and the public, they then tell Parliament, which completely diminishes the role of the House of Commons. Parliament must react to that.
Parliament must make sure that the Government’s behaviour is responsible, because they have the power to do so. The Parliament at present has given the Prime Minister a very large majority, but he would be very unwise to forget that he got his extraordinary majority of 80 seats with less than 30% of the people who are entitled to vote, 29.3 or 29.7, I think is the actual figure. If he wishes to bring even the electoral system into total disrepute he has to recognise that he does not have the majority opinion at his side that the majority of 80 in the House of Commons would seem to imply, he has nothing like that and he should tread very carefully.
Nick Robinson
People listening to this will be in no doubt about your passion, no doubt I think about your anger. But I think there will be some who think this is personal animus, you lost the argument on Brexit, Boris Johnson won the argument on Brexit. And there will be plenty of people who voted leave, saying please don’t lecture us about standards, the establishment, of which they would see you as a part, tried to overturn the votes in a democracy. They tried to overturn the result of that referendum. And, yes, Boris Johnson broke the law or broke treaties. He had to do it because there was a conspiracy to overturn a democratic result in a referendum and you don’t like it?
Sir John Major
He had to break the law? That is absolute nonsense. Never in the history of British politics has a Government had to break the law and tried to justify it in the way this Government has attempted to do. I am very well aware that the extreme Brexiteers will say well there is a bitter old Remoaner. That old mantra will be repeated. And let me say it’s partly true, I am old and I’m most certainly a Remainer. But I’m not bitter – what I am is disappointed and angry at the way the Government has behaved. I’m angry about the trashing of our reputation, I’m angry because I care about the upholding of general decency by the Government and international law.
As for ‘Remoaners’, to use that sneer against half the country, half the country that voted against leaving Europe, is pretty arrogant. When you consider what is happening with Brexit, even more arrogant.
Nick Robinson
In today’s Daily Telegraph editorial, time is running out and the Government should not hold back from doing what is necessary. They are calling for, as you will well know, the use of what is in that jargon called Article 16, which means in reality suspending large parts of the Brexit agreement as part of the row between the UK Government and the EU. How would you feel if they did that?
Sir John Major
I think it would be colossally stupid to do that. To use Article 16 to suspend parts of the protocol will be absurd. This protocol is being denounced week after week by Lord Frost and the Prime Minister. Who negotiated the wretched protocol? Lord Frost and the Prime Minister. They negotiated it, they signed it, and they now wish to break it. If they do that, firstly, it will be seen as very bad faith, it will be seen as irresponsible, there will undoubtedly be severe consequences. It would add to destabilisation in Northern Ireland, it would seriously damage relationships across the whole of Ireland, North and South, and the UK. It would erode relationships between Europe and the UK, it would damage relationships between Washington and London, because Washington, the United States is very much behind the protocol.
At the moment, we are negotiating over the protocol with all the subtlety of a brick. What is happening week after week is that Lord Frost goes into the negotiations, he gives away nothing, he takes something from the European Union. He goes away, blames them for the fact that nothing at all has happened. They are preparing, I think, to trigger Article 16 after the COP meeting has ended and I think if they do, they will come to regret it because this runs alongside other things in Northern Ireland, like the possibility of the destabilisation of the power sharing executive if the DUP withdraw from it. This is a very difficult and dangerous road to go down, it’s not just a question of trade difficulties. It could – we’ve seen what’s happened in Northern Ireland before – it could become much worse. They should be very, very careful about this. This is silly politics to placate a few extreme Brexiteers, and the price will be paid by businesses, people in Northern Ireland and the reputation of the United Kingdom.
Nick Robinson
I think they would say if they were here, if Lord Frost was here, it works – the French back down on fish, the EU back down on lots of controls that were being used in Northern Ireland after Brexit, we have to, they argue, throw our weight around in order to be taken seriously and for people to listen. John Major’s nice diplomacy doesn’t get you anywhere.
Sir John Major
Well, if they think that the way of negotiating is to be a bully, then I think they will come adrift in due course, and it may be on this occasion. It’s certainly true that the European Union obeys the normal laws of diplomacy and this country wouldn’t seem to recognise them at all at the present moment. But there will come a moment when it will stop. There’s come a moment in the House of Commons in the last week when many missteps by the government have suddenly exploded into a general anger. The same thing may happen over Northern Ireland if they proceed down the route they’re going.
Nick Robinson
Now you talk about general anger, there will again be some people listening who say well, it’s a bit rich for Sir John Major to talk about sleaze, wasn’t that the thing that drove him from office in many ways, a cash for questions scandal I mentioned, arms for Iraq, Jonathan Aitken, not to mention a host of ministers who were forced to resign during your period in office. Are you really qualified to talk about this?
Sir John Major
I think that’s a perfectly fair point for you to put. We did face so called sleaze in the 1990s, it was immensely damaging, it was embarrassing, it hurt the government, it hurt Parliament. It involved a relatively small number of people who misbehaved, the worst of which was cash for questions. There was no excuse for that. A small number of MPs were paid for asking parliamentary questions, it was a form of paid lobbying, and completely unacceptable. But here’s the difference. When that happened, I set up the Nolan Committee on Standards in Public Life to stop it, which has been a huge success. The striking difference is this, in the 1990s I set up a committee to tackle this sort of behaviour. Over the last few days we have seen today’s government trying to defend this sort of behaviour. Sleaze is unacceptable, was unacceptable when I was there, and I suffered a great deal of pain and anguish over it. It’s as unacceptable today, and it needs to be stopped.
Nick Robinson
You have described the Prime Minister’s behaviour, the behaviour of this Government, as unconservative. Now, our votes are a private matter but do you ever have nights, do you ever have moments when you look in the mirror and think I’m not sure I can vote for this man to remain as Prime Minister?
Sir John Major
Well, I wouldn’t be, I would be voting for my local Member of Parliament. So in fact, it’s not quite as simple as that. But it will be a dilemma for many people. I mean, the Government cushions itself with this majority of 80: the 80 was partly a vote for the Conservative Party, but I fear in significant part it was a vote against the fact that the Labour Party did not seem credible to form a government. That is why I think a little humility would be entirely appropriate to the government in the present situation in which they find themselves.
Nick Robinson
Sir John Major, thank you for joining us.
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Sir John Major’s Speech – Middle Temple’s Treasurer’s Lecture: The State We’re In
The speech made by Sir John Major at Middle Temple on 9 November 2020.
THE STATE WE’RE IN
It is a privilege to be invited to deliver this lecture and my only regret is that it is remote – with no live audience ….. nor the delights of a Middle Temple dinner.
Given the date, my subject is appropriate. On this day in 1923, Hitler failed to seize power in Germany; in 1938, it marked Kristallnacht and the Nazi assault on Jews; and, in 1989, the Berlin Wall fell.
Each of these events impacted on the wider world – and that wider world will now impact on “The State We’re In”.
The future of that State requires plain speaking if we are to be honest with our nation.
And, of course, with ourselves. The great powers of our age are the United States, China, and the European Union.
The world they straddle is fractious. The values of liberal society are stalled, if not in retreat. America and China are in a Trade War and an embryonic Cold War. Europe and America are far apart on many issues, but both deplore China’s authoritarian direction under President Xi.
Lesser powers like Russia – the Great Disrupter – and Turkey continue to subvert and to meddle.
Free trade and globalisation are now widely questioned.
Migration and radical Islam are an ever present problem.
Populism continues to promote prejudice and racial intolerance.
And, in many nation states, autocracy has grown – and democracy has fallen back.
Our world seems ill at ease, at a moment when harmony and collective decision making seem more and more essential for our security and well-being.
The post-War settlement is out of date.
The United Nations is hamstrung by the rules of its own Security Council.
The World Trade Organisation is paralysed, with no functioning resolution dispute procedure.
The World Health Organisation is under-funded, under-powered and under attack.
Despite all this, no nation seems prepared to lead the case for reform.
The financial crash of 2007 weakened many countries and the lives of billions of people; and, in the year of Covid, trillions of dollars have been diverted from growth as the virus has increased hardship on every Continent.
This is the wider context in which the United Kingdom must prepare for our future, whilst facing the added challenges of Covid-19 – and Brexit.
Our country has many virtues but, if we are to be successful in this challenging environment, we need to be cruelly honest with ourselves about what needs to be done to ensure our political and economic wellbeing.
If we’re complacent, we betray our own interests. If we see ourselves through rose-tinted spectacles, then we will deceive ourselves.
Complacency and nostalgia are the route to national decline. So I favour reality and optimism – but with the warning that false optimism is deceit by another name.
We are no longer a great power. We will never be so again. In a world of nearly 8 billion people, well under 1% are British.
We are a top second-rank power but, over the next half century – however well we perform – our small size and population makes it likely we will be passed by the growth of other, far larger, countries.
In recent decades, we have consoled ourselves that we “punch above our weight” in international affairs. I think that was true: but that was then, and this is now.
Our hefty international influence rested on our history and reputation, buttressed by our membership of the European Union and our close alliance with the United States.
Suddenly, we are no longer an irreplaceable bridge between Europe and America. We are now less relevant to them both.
COVID
At home, we must face Covid.
Covid has already left many families bereaved and bereft. It has changed lives and work patterns, cost billions, increased national debt and annual deficits.
It has destroyed public tolerance of austerity, and made tax rises inevitable – although not, if we are sensible, until the economy is more healthy.
The virus also presents a formidable obstacle to one of the Government’s better instincts. Their intention is to level up the regions and help individuals “left behind”. The pernicious effect of Covid will be to level down.
The problem is not so much the gap between rich and poor, but that the poor may become so indebted and destitute they are unable to maintain themselves – or their families.
The classic response to tide people over – until the private sector returns to full capacity – is for social subsidy out of taxation.
But billions upon billions have already been spent, and friction between the extent of need and the capacity to help is inevitable.
And there are many in need of help – businesses forced to shut down, the unemployed, the self-employed, the care sector, health, the arts, sport: the demands on the Exchequer are beyond anything we have known in peacetime.
The Government deserves credit for what has been spent so far, to set against criticism for unmet needs.
But I do find it surprising that – in the midst of the Covid crisis – the Government appears to be fostering disputes with the
Judiciary, where all Governments should tread carefully; the Civil Service, upon whose help the Government depends; and the BBC, still the most respected broadcaster on the planet.These are unmerited distractions from the issues the country needs them to focus on.
BREXIT
The core change in the New Britain being forged is – Brexit. It has been hidden behind Covid for a few months. It has not gone away. You have to be wilfully in denial not to see the damage already done, and not to be concerned at what it might mean.
Brexit divided England and Wales from Scotland and Northern Ireland. It divided political parties and families; the young and their elders; business and trade unions; and friend from friend. As its full impact becomes apparent in the New Year, old wounds may re-open.There is no consensus on Brexit, and never has been. It was a bitterly divisive policy, and uncorked a populism that may be difficult to quell.
The Referendum debate was unlike any I have known before. Emotion overcame reality. And, in the search for hearts and minds and votes, fiction defeated fact and fostered a belief in a past that never was – whilst boosting enthusiasm for a future that may never be.
If that mode of politics takes root, it will kill all respect in our system of government.
In the Referendum, Britons voted to leave the European Union. I have never hidden my view, nor have I changed it. To my mind – and I am no starry-eyed European – Brexit is the worst foreign policy decision in my lifetime.
I have seen the EU from the inside and know its frustrations. But have no doubt we were better off in than we will be out.
The decision to leave will damage our future in many ways, and the reassurances we are given are unconvincing.
Brexit was sold to our electors on false premises.
Promises made will not – indeed, cannot – be kept. To leave the EU – to separate ourselves from our neighbours – was sold as “regaining sovereignty”, but it is, and will prove to be, a long and painful ball and chain on our national wellbeing.
After the Referendum, Brexiteers did not even bother to argue the merits of their case – why should they? – it was “the will of the people”.
And once “the will of the people” was asserted as a repeated mantra – and the Brexit leaders claimed to speak for all “the people” – any opposition to Brexit became illegitimate, and any contrary view was howled down.
Free speech for those who supported remaining in the EU came at a price. They were pilloried as “Remoaners”: sticking to long-held principles and policies, and warning of clear dangers ahead was depicted as “sour grapes by sore losers”.
Even Judges were denounced as “Enemies of the People” for ruling on a Point of Law. Opponents of Brexit were cowed, and free speech was curtailed. It was shameful. No democracy should find itself in such a position.
Overseas, the outcome of the Referendum delighted our enemies and dismayed our friends. As our nation voted against its history and its self-interest, a bemused world looked on, wondering why we had chosen to become poorer and less influential.
Brexit was sold to the nation as a win-win situation. It is not. We were promised we would stay in the Single Market. We have not. We were told trade with the EU would be frictionless. It will not be.
We were promised we would save billions in payments to the European Union: a bus was driven around the country telling us so.
Not so: Brexit is costing billions – not saving them.
We were told that our “liberated country” could cut back on bureaucracy and regulations. We now know they will increase – and dramatically.
We were promised we would strike lucrative trade deals with America, India, China and others in quick time. Japan apart – we have not.
More recently – and for the first time in our long history – Ministers have proposed legislation giving them powers to break the law. This is a slippery slope down which no democratic Government should ever travel.
And, it was claimed, Brexit wouldn’t increase support for Scottish independence or a united Ireland. It has.
It defies logic that intelligent men and women making such extravagant promises did not know they were undeliverable – and yet they continued to make them.
It was politics. It was campaigning. It was for a cause.
It was also unforgiveable.
If that is how we are going to conduct our public affairs, then not only will our politics truly fall into a bad place, but our word as a nation will no longer be trusted.
POST-BREXIT TRADE
Trade has always been the life-blood of our prosperity.
We were promised a comprehensive trade deal with the EU. We were told this would be “the easiest deal in history” because “we hold all the cards”. Apparently not.
As the politics changed, the promises were ditched.
We can now look forward to a flimsy, barebones deal – or no deal at all. This is a wretched betrayal of what our electors were led to believe.
It now seems that on 1 January next year, Brexit may be even more brutal than anyone expected.
Brexit is no friend of free trade with Europe. It may set up new tariff barriers. And it certainly will:
- set up non-tariff barriers;
- damage supply chains;
- add to regulations;
- demand new customs and security declarations;
- require Rules of Origin to prove where spare parts came from; – require tens of thousands of customs agents to process new bureaucracy; – create huge stockpiling dilemmas; and
- require new massive storehouses to hold supplies.
These costs and complexities are the certain legacy of Brexit. This is as a result of our negotiating failure – and it is a failure.
Because of our bombast, our blustering, our threats and our inflexibility – our trade will be less profitable, our Treasury poorer, our jobs fewer, and our future less prosperous.
This is not hindsight wisdom: this outcome was not only foreseeable, it was foreseen. Unfortunately, in a brilliant mis-direction, all warnings were scorned as “Project Fear” and ignored. And, to add tragedy to farce, it was the people who were misled who will now lose out.
The Government has not been frank about our negotiations with Europe.
They say we are merely asking for a Canada deal, but that’s not so. We are asking for a deal without tariffs or quotas and for more on haulage, on energy, on aviation – and we are a bigger trading rival than Canada and nearer to the EU.
The Canada comparison is – to put it kindly – disingenuous. And to refer to an Australian deal is absurd.
There is no Australia deal. It is a fantasy: a euphemism for no deal at all – and the Government should say so.
Its reputation will suffer if it is not honest with the British people about this.
It is time to stop putting Ministers on the media who speak to a pre-prepared script and parrot misleading or pointless slogans.
There are hopes of trade deals with America, China and India. They would be welcome but, once again, the promises are overdone.
One day, I am sure, we will get the much-heralded trade deal with America, originally promised for last Spring, then Summer – now, who knows?
When it does come, it will benefit America far more than us. It may be symbolically important, but it won’t be an economic game-changer.
The promised trade deal with China is highly unlikely in any near timescale. Our ice-cold diplomatic relations with Russia rule out a trade deal with her, too.
And, if we wish to have a trade deal with India, the Government must realise that we cannot seek it on a Monday, and restrict immigration from India on Tuesday – it is a poor optic and a worse negotiating strategy.
The macro arguments against Brexit: the economic and social damage, our weaker position in the world, and the loss of trade advantages, may seem remote. They won’t prove to be.
WIDER IMPACT OF BREXIT
And lesser issues will impact directly:
- the loss of freedom of movement in Europe;
- higher food prices;
- more expensive holidays;
- the withdrawal of EU driving licences;
- the cost of health insurance without the free cover of the European Health Card;
- the loss of the Pet Passport Scheme and the expensive – and time consuming – effort to get approval for pets to travel;
- higher roaming charges for mobile phones;
- slower entry and more delays at European airports; and
- the loss of the automatic right to work, live or study in the EU.
Small irritations, some may say, but – collectively – a significant loss of freedom that will be an unwelcome surprise to many as Europe itself begins to “take back control”.
When the present phase of Brexit is over, it is important we negotiate a more comprehensive relationship with the EU than is likely to emerge from the present negotiations.
We should seek bilateral agreements in areas of trade and policy which have not been agreed in these rushed negotiations.
We should work with the EU to address global problems.
And we should recognise that the nations of the EU are bound with ourselves in ties of common interest, history and future destiny.
To ignore this would be a dereliction of our national interests.
SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE
One deeply troubling effect of Brexit is the risk of breaking up the UK by increased support for Scotland to leave the Union, and Northern Ireland to unite with the South.
Neither will do so immediately, but the combination of Brexit – and the unpopularity of our present Westminster Government in Scotland – has increased the likelihood of a breach.
I remain a convinced Unionist. Every part of the UK is richer – and of more weight in the world – if they stay together.
The most likely to leave is Scotland. If she does, it will not only weaken Scotland, but also undermine the rump of the UK.
It will be a step into the unknown for us both.
The problem is politics.
The raison d’être of the SNP is an independent Scotland while – for many Conservatives – Unionism is at the heart of their philosophy. It is a challenge to see whether that chasm can be bridged.
To keep the Union together will require consensus, consideration and consultation. The Government must engage, coax, encourage, and examine every possible route to find an arrangement that will obtain a majority for union.
It will be difficult – and is made even more so by the posturing of English and Scottish nationalists.
In law, the Scots require the approval of the Westminster Government before they can legally hold a new independence referendum.
But refusing one might help the separatist case, by adding to the list of grievances the Scottish National Party exploit with such skill.
The choice for the UK Government is either to agree the referendum can take place – or to refuse to permit it. Both options come with great risk. But the lessons of Brexit may offer a way ahead.
The Westminster Government could agree for an Independence Referendum to take place, on the basis of two referenda. The first to vote upon the principle of negotiations, and the second upon the outcome of them.
The purpose of the second referendum would be that Scottish electors would know what they were voting for, and be able to compare it to what they now have. This did not happen with Brexit: had it done so, there may have been no Brexit.
Many Scottish voices – and especially business – may support the logic of this: it may focus minds away from a short-term reflex opposition to a perceived English Government, and back to the mutual and long-term virtues of the Union.
NORTHERN IRELAND
Brexiteers affected not to notice that Northern Ireland’s support for the European Union pulled the Six Counties more into the orbit of the Republic of Ireland.
This was exacerbated when the Prime Minister’s renegotiation of Theresa May’s Withdrawal Deal left Northern Ireland more integrated with the Republic than the rest of the United Kingdom.
It was sold as a triumph, but it was a surrender.
These developments accompanied a third reality: the Nationalist population in Northern Ireland is growing faster than the Unionists, and is close to a majority.
The conjunction of these events is to increase the future possibility of a border poll – already sought by Sinn Fein – to vote upon a united Ireland.
I doubt that such a poll would be won at present. Not all Nationalists will vote for unity. The Republic would find it hard to absorb the weak economic structure of the North.
The time for a poll is not yet come. But it will. And if – when it does – the Northern Irish vote for unification, then those who ignored the warnings that Brexit posed will have to answer for the dismantling of a further part of the United Kingdom.
And, here in Middle Temple, one issue cannot be ignored. The Rule of Law.
Earlier I referred – in passing – to the provisions in the Internal Markets Bill that empower a Minister to disregard aspects of the Treaty the Prime Minister agreed earlier this year.
This action is unprecedented in all our history – and for good reason. It has damaged our reputation around the world.
Lawyers everywhere are incredulous that the UK – often seen as the very cradle of the Rule of Law – could give themselves the power to break the law.
Moreover, at a moment when we need to maximise our commercial activities, this Bill has had a corrosive impact on the reputation of English and Welsh jurisdiction.
This may have a practical cost.
International dispute resolution can be conducted anywhere overseas and the Bill could erode the present pre-eminent position of the UK and, perhaps, especially London.
Was this considered when the Bill was drafted? Was there consultation with the legal profession? If not, why not? And if there was consultation – why was it ignored?
Similar concerns apply to the clause that seeks to exclude Judicial Review in delegated legislation.
I cannot believe it is compatible with the Rule of Law to protect executive Acts from judicial scrutiny: put simply, Ministers must be subject to legal restraints. They cannot be above the law.
And all individuals must have access to the law. Our delivery of justice must be seen to be fair and impartial – access to the law must not depend upon the size of your bank account.
Magna Carta promised:
“To no one will we sell, to no one deny or delay right or justice”.
And yet, an individual – if denied legal aid – may not have the resources to right an injustice. That can deny justice: it cannot be right.
Nor can it be right to denigrate our Judiciary. They are not the “Enemies of the People”: they are the guarantors of our liberties under the law.
It is the responsibility of Parliament to uphold these liberties if they are threatened by any source: not to do so would be to curtail an essential freedom.
I have set out some concerns about the present state of our country. But I wouldn’t wish to be misunderstood.
SUMMATION
Throughout my life I have travelled widely and – in the last 20 years – almost incessantly.
In all my travels I have found nowhere I would wish to live, other than here in the UK.
That said, I believe we have a duty to make life better for this – and future generations – to whom we will be passing a difficult legacy.
In hard times, there is often an inflection point that changes minds, and compels policy that otherwise could not be easily implemented.
The combination of hazards before us may be such a moment.
To make it so, policy should be set to pave the way to a fairer, better, safer, and – in time – more prosperous future.
We will all have to bear burdens for such aspirations to become a reality, but that is both our privilege and our responsibility.
The very core of well-being is an expanding economy, efficient health provision and quality education.
The Government’s “levelling up” strategy is essential. So is – sooner rather than later – a credible system of social care for the elderly.
For future employment, we will have to focus increasingly on vocational education, and give such skills the respect they deserve.
It is essential we remain a United Kingdom – and reinforce the values that have built our reputation. If we cannot again be a great power, we can be a great example.
If we cannot compel, we can influence.
We can build up our soft power to sustain our profile.
We can use our diplomacy to raise issues that need multi-nation action.
We can be “Global Britain” in more ways than trade. But, to be so, we must reject the narrow nationalism that some have imported into our politics.
We must put aside the notion of “British exceptionalism”: it is a fantasy baked into the minds of those who do not know how the world has changed.
But – we can be exceptional.
All this – and more – can be achieved.
We like to think of ourselves as the land of hope and glory. “Hope” is essential – most especially during the darkest of times.
But I am ambivalent about the “glory”.
I will settle for a land that is united and prosperous; which rises above challenges – as it has done so often in the past; whose word is trusted both near and far; and whose people are seen to be decent, fair and compassionate to all.
In every corner of our United Kingdom that remains the instinctive heartbeat. And it is one which I hope will always prevail.
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Sir John Major’s Message to Vote for Final Say Rally – 6 December 2019
Below is the text of Sir John Major’s message to the ‘Vote for Final Say’ rally held in London on 6 December 2019.
I’m sorry not to be with you in person this evening, but grateful to have this opportunity to speak to you.
In a few days’ time, we will be choosing our next Government and our next Parliament. The choice of Members of Parliament that we all make will make a big difference.
At elections, political tribes join together to promote their own policies, and criticise those of their opponents. That’s the nature of elections.
But there are always individuals who enhance Parliament.
And there are always policies upon which every Party can agree.
One is democracy, and the right of every adult to vote.
At every election the future of our country is at stake.
But on this occasion even more than usual.
When the nation voted on Brexit they did so on a diet of fiction and undeliverable promises.
As the facts become known, it’s extraordinary that a new vote is denied: extraordinary, and frankly undemocratic.
People have strong views on Brexit. Mine are very clear.
I believe that leaving the European Union is the worst foreign policy decision in my lifetime.
It will affect nearly every aspect of our lives for many decades to come and it will make our country poorer and weaker, and the individuals within it.
It will hurt most those who have least.
Never have the stakes been higher, especially for the young.
Brexit may even break up our historic United Kingdom.
Within a few years, Scotland may leave the Union. Northern Ireland may unite with the South.
Both may do so in order to remain within the European Union.
Your young generation has already recognised this – by registering to vote in record numbers.
And your vote is absolutely crucial – for you have the longest lease on our country’s future, and our place in the wider world.
So my message to you this evening is very clear: don’t allow your future to be shaped by others, with no input from yourselves.
You – every single one of you – can make a difference to the election result.
So don’t hang back. Don’t wait until Friday, 13 December and then regret that you didn’t make a choice.
To vote means to choose.
So choose the future that you believe in – for your own generation and the next….
Vote for the candidate who you believe will best represent your own views and your own aspirations in the next Parliament.
I was in politics for many years, and – believe me – no single Party has a monopoly on wisdom.
I am a Conservative, but there have always been policies of other Parties with which I agreed.
That is politics as it truly is – not politics as tribal politicians pretend it to be.
Tribal loyalty has its place. It can be good and honourable.
But sometimes you need to vote with your head as well as your heart.
To vote for your country and your future.
This is such a time.
But, whatever you do, don’t let your vote be wasted. Never has it been as important as it is now.
* * * * *
Now, I am simply the warm-up act this evening ….. but I’d like to say a few words about those who will be joining you shortly:
First, Michael Heseltine.
Michael is a giant of the Conservative Party, a giant of successive Conservative Governments – including my own when he was Deputy Prime Minister.
He has always been fearless in protecting the best long-term interests of the United Kingdom.
Michael is, truly, one of a kind – and a very wise one of a kind.
Secondly, you will hear from David Gauke.
He, Dominic Grieve, and Anne Milton – all of them principled, decent, talented human beings – were forced out of the Conservative Party, and are now fighting this election as Independent candidates.
But let me make one thing crystal clear: none of them left the Conservative Party, the Conservative Party left them.
Without such talent on its benches, Parliament will be the poorer, which is why – were I resident in any of their constituencies – they would have my vote in this election.
And now to my third guest….
Politics throws up some strange alliances – and never more so than in this debate over Brexit….
The third guest may once have been my political opponent – but even as I say that let me add we were never personal enemies.
And on the perils of Brexit – and our joint fervent hope that the younger generation will engage in politics, and exercise its vote next week – upon that we are absolutely at one.
It seems ironic to me that, due to scheduling difficulties, I am forced to speak to you on screen – since he was always so much better at doing that than I was.
I daresay he still is.
So, with four words that – once upon a time – would never easily have passed my lips, tonight I can say with great pleasure: “Tony, over to you……”
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Sir John Major’s Comments to Alastair Campbell – 26 October 2019
Below are the comments made by Sir John Major in an interview with Alastair Campbell in preparation for a video shown at the People’s Vote rally. The comments were published by the New European on 26 October 2019.
When I became prime minister, the people of Northern Ireland found themselves living with bombings, shootings, murders, beatings, kneecappings, month after month. It was a way of life that would have been utterly intolerable in any other part of the United Kingdom. Murder was so routine that it was no longer headline news.
Violence also came to the British mainland. In London, the City, Oxford Street, Knightsbridge were bombed. So was the House of Commons, and 10 Downing Street. Bombings in Manchester, Birmingham, Guildford and Warrington, where two little boys were murdered while buying cards for Mothering Sunday. For those who never lived through those times, it must be almost impossible to imagine. For those of us who did, it’s still difficult to comprehend.
Irish Taoiseach Albert Reynolds and I both shared a view that it was intolerable, that the 30 years of violence that killed 3,000 people simply could not be permitted to continue. We decided to look for common ground. We were working against a backdrop of tremendous support against the men and women of violence from whichever community they came. There was a genuine sense of people power and it grew.
Bit by bit, culminating in the Good Friday Agreement, the peace process transformed the lives of all those on the island of Ireland, north and south. Violence ended, friendships were nurture, old hatreds faded. The relationship between London, Belfast and Dublin became better than at any time in history. A key part of this transformation was our mutual membership of the European Union. It broke down borders across Ireland. It increased and simplified trade. It brought north and south closer together. And London and Dublin became close allies, not least around the European table. Brexit will significantly weaken those links and damage the economies of both our countries.
But the Good Friday agreement was about far more than trade or jobs or profits. It replaced violence with peace. That peace is still fragile. It cannot and must not be a mere afterthought. My fear and that of many others is that Brexit may put that peace at risk. Having been so hard won, and it is to Tony Blair’s eternal credit that it was, it must surely never be allowed to be lost. It is worth remembering that no one under the age of 20 would have any memory of the violence and deaths that once engulfed their neighbourhoods. I hope and pray they never do. It would be the most recklessly irresponsible act to risk losing what took so long to achieve. And a gamble that no British government should ever take, whatever political policy they wish to pursue.
I totally supported Tony Blair in what he did and for the referendum we liaised. A fool could have seen the difficulties there was going to be with a border between the European Union and the United Kingdom, which would be on the southern end of Northern Ireland. We remembered that when the violence began. It began with the murder of customs officers at a customs border. We went to Ireland together to warn of the difficulties there would be. And I’m sad to say that many of the people in Northern Ireland just shrugged their shoulders and said, what did they know of Ireland? And that, I’m afraid, was also true of the of the then British cabinet. I was disappointed that people could not see the dangers that would be likely to arise.
I am unsurprised at the end that the Democratic Unionists appear not to be able to support the agreement that has been reached. It was rejected by precisely the people who are now promoting this particular agreement. But I do think there is going to be a real difficulty in Northern Ireland being treated differently. I think there are many reasons for a confirmatory referendum and making sure that you have the support of the people in Northern Ireland is certainly one of them.
A border down the Irish Sea splits Northern Ireland from the rest of the United Kingdom. And that, of course, always plays on the inherent fears of Northern Ireland, that they’re being ignored, that they’re being maltreated. And those fears are very real. There is now not a shred of doubt in my mind that the integrity of the United Kingdom, both in terms of Scotland and in terms of Northern Ireland, is at greater threat. Leaving Europe, carrying Brexit through, will raise strains we know of and strains we haven’t yet thought of. That may well end up with dividing a United Kingdom that has been together for a very long time. It is a thoroughly bad idea.